PB’s “The Money Says Index”: CON Maj 56 seats
Even though we have not had any news polls since the MORI survey on Monday the mood on the spread betting markets has continued to be away from Labour and onto the Tories.
This morning’s changes bring the spreads to this – with changes on three days ago CON 350-356 (+4): LAB 226-232 (-4): LD 42-45 (nc).
On the Monday before last, a few minutes before the January Populus poll came out showing the return of a Labour double digit deficit, the party’s spread was 240 – 246 seats. So we’ve seen a fourteen seat decline in less than a fortnight which is quite startling.
In this form of betting punters are buying and selling the number of seats the parties will get as though they were stocks and shares. One of the attractions is that you can close down positions at any time. pocketing any profit now. Firms like Sporting Index and IG Index can usually offer credit terms so often there is no need to stump up any cash now.
My betting approach is generally to sell the party I think is moving downwards rather than buy the party that seems to be going forward. If Labour’s share drops into the 20s again then they can expect hits from the SNP, PC as well as the Lib Dems.
I sold Labour at the 240 seat level twelve days ago and I’m probably going to stay where I am.