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So TMay finally decides to quit and the race for her successor begins

May 24th, 2019




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The big picture from the turnout figures so far annouced is that the more an area was for Remain the more people voted yesterday

May 24th, 2019

Although there has been no exit or other polling there has been a mass of data from the local authority areas that began verifying the ballots overnight.

The big picture so far is in the headline – there’s a correlation between the percentage of those who voted yesterday and what the area did at the referendum. So far it seems that the more for Leave places were the lower turnout levels there were yesterdsy.

Now we should be careful rushing to judgment here because all we have is data from a relatively small number of council area and, of course, what happened in the referendum. But if a significantly higher proportion of people voted in Remain area that does suggest that the Greens and LDs might be doing well.

There has been no information from London yet – the ballot verifications are taking place in the morning – but I’m increasingly confident that my 7/2 bets on the LDs winning the vote in the capital might be a winner.

The Tweet above is from Ashfield – a strong leave area where the turnout was low in comparison to, say, the 47% in the strong remain city of St Albans.

Mike Smithson




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Frustratingly there’ll be no results or even on the day polls until Sunday at 10pm

May 23rd, 2019


Those used to general elections in the UK and the drama of the exit poll coming out they might get a bit deflated to have reached 10 this evening to find the polls have closed and nothing is happening.

We will have to wait until 10 p.m. on Sunday evening for the first results to come out. This is because of the strict rules about EU elections that no information on voting can be revealed until such time as as until voting in all countries is over.

There’s obviously a lot of anecdotal evidence of what’s been happening today and we could get some harder data about turnout trends from the verification process that is taking this evening of all the ballot papers that were cast. This procedure is monitored by party observers and information can come out.

If turnout is not as high as some had been predicting then which parties will be the beneficiaries and which the losers? My current view, an this might be overtaken by events, is that BRX will benefit most from a highish turnout.

Please share any info you have on the thread below.

Mike Smithson




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The Election day PB / Polling Matters podcast looks at what is going on with the Euro polls

May 23rd, 2019

On this week podcast, Keiran Pedley and Matt Singh discuss the EU election polls and what happens next week.

Listen to the podcast below:

Follow this week’s guests:





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The final poll puts BRX on 35% with the LDs in second place 5% ahead of LAB

May 23rd, 2019

This is much closer to YouGov than other polls

The pollster, Ipsos-MORI, has a long history of trying to be the publisher of the last poll before an election. It does this by finishing its fieldwork on the Wednesday evening and generally it is published in the London Evening Standard on the Thursday.

With this election when so much is fluid this is good time to get a snapshot. The hope is that it will enable the firm to identify late swings and get the very latest sense of where opinion is moving. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn’t.

What can be seen from the numbers above is that is that the broad picture is fairly similar to YouGov which was until now the only pollster to have the LDs in second place. It is also the only pollster apart from YouGov to have the Tories in single figures.

This new poll also gives a much lower figure for LAB than other firms apart from YouGov. The 15% LAB share here compares with the 25% from Panelbase and 24% from Kantar and Survation.

A key number is that 52% of those planning to vote Conservative in the European elections said they may still change their mind.

There is at least one on the day survey taking place and we might see that later on this evening after the polls have closed.

Mike Smithson




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On Euro election day it looks as though it is all over for the woman whose only crime was to try to implement the referendum without damaging the economy

May 23rd, 2019

With parts of her cabinet now in open revolt it is hard to see how even TMay can now survive.  Today being election day at least gives her breathing space ahead of what has appeared likely for some time.

The Tory obsession with Europe is devouring another leader.

In many ways it would have been better for the party if the July 2016 leadership election had resulted in a leaver taking over the helm of the party though no doubt he or she would have faced the same challenges that TMay has.

When and what the sequencing of events will be has yet to be worked out but we are close to leadership election which could be over before the summer recess.

Will TMay step aside immediately or will she stay in post while a successor is chose? It is hard to see the party in it current mood allowing that. They want her out.

At least the likely terrible performance in today’s election will be overshadowed by what lies ahead.

Mike Smithson




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The final Euros polls show a picture that is far from clear

May 22nd, 2019

LAB between 25% or just 13% and BRX ranges from 27% to 37%

The final polls on the eve of the 2019 Euros look very confusing and it is hard to find a clear picture. The Tories range from 7%  to 14% while the LDs are polling between 12% and 19%.

Only one on the list had any fieldwork taking place today the rest were all closed yesterday thus not picking up any late swing which we know can happen in other elections. How, for instance, have today’s Tory party stories impacted on what voters will do. I can never remember an election when all the talk at Westminster on the afternoon before polling day was of the possibility of the PM being forced out that night.

What we do know is that there is a lot of tactical voting taking place.  For many those decisions could come at the last minute. Will, for instance, pro-Remain LAB GE2017 voters stick with their party or could they decide to vote for one of the unequivocally anti-Brexit parties and if so which.

The polling suggests that the Lib Dem message about being the strongest party for remain appears to have had an impact and it might pick up more backing on the day. Certainly it does not seem to have been harmed by Bollocks to Brexit.

The one sure message is that a big proportion of  GE2017 CON voters will be going with Mr. Farage who will likely attract former LAB voters as well.

The results won’t be announced until 10pm on Sunday.

I am aware of at least one on the day poll that might give us an indication.

Mike Smithson




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A 2019 general election moves up in the betting as the pressure mounts on TMay

May 22nd, 2019


Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange

One of the big political betting movements this afternoon has been on the timing of the next general election as can been from the chart. As far as I can see the reasoning is that TMay’s time at Number 10 is moving to a conclusion with much talk of a leadership contest before the summer break.

The only problem is that a new PM and leader would face exactly the same challenges that Mrs. May has struggled with over getting Commons agreement on an exit deal. It might be that her successor would seek to break the parliamentary deadlock by going to the country.

The problem with this is that calling a general election is exactly what the incumbent did in 2017 and ended up with fewer cON MPs and no overall majority. Would a new leader be prepared to gamble his or her new job?

Also would the next CON leader go to the country in the aftermath of Farage’s likely success in tomorrow’s Euros?

Whatever everything is deadlocked and something has to give.

Mike Smithson