h1

Thurday’s Sleaford and North Hykeham by-election – A certain CON hold or could we see a surprise?

December 6th, 2016

constituency-map-sleaford-and-north-hykeham

An opportunity for UKIP’s Doctor Nuttall?

While there’s been a huge amount of focus on Richmond Park the by-election in Sleaford and North Hykeham has received far less attention – both from the parties themselves and the media.

The result from last time makes it difficult to see other than a CON hold on a very much reduced turnout. The fact that it is happening in December so close to Christmas is surely going to depress the number of voters who will bother to vote and this, just conceivably, could lead to a shock. The UKIP betting price has moved in although Betfair makes the Tories a 1/9 shot. UKIP latest are 21/2 while the LD are 44/1.

Surprisingly LAB, second last time, are right out of it in the betting.

The LDs, flush from their Richmond Park gain, have been active but nothing on the scale of their operation for last Thursday’s contest. UKIP have been working hard too in what will be the first electoral test under Dr. Nuttall’s leadership. On paper this should be ideal territory.

Ladbrokes have a 2nd place market up offering:-

2/5 UKIP
4/1 LD
8/1 CON
10/1

Labour being pushed to fourth would be bad news for Corbyn’s party.

Mike Smithson





h1

The polls did NOT get BREXIT wrong: Only 41% had REMAIN leads. 59% didn’t

December 6th, 2016

Is it too much to expect Britain’s PR people to check simple facts?

One of the enduring myths from June 23rd was that the polls got it wrong. Some did but most in the official campaign period didn’t as shown in the chart.

That esteemed body that allegedly speaks for PR people, the Public Relations and Communications Association (PRCA), has announced it is holding an inquiry into polling specifically referencing GE2015 and the June 23rd referendum. Certainly the former was a big polling fail and there has been a major inquiry into what went wrong and many pollsters have made changes. Quite what PR men can add to the serious examination that has taken place is hard to say.

But the suggestion that keeps on getting repeated is that the polls got BREXIT wrong. This is rubbish as I keep on repeating. There were more LEAVE lead polls carried out during the official campaign period than REMAIN ones. The figures were 14 REMAIN leads, 17 LEAVE leads and 3 polls had it tied.

It is certainly true that two or three of the final polls were off the mark but the overall picture was reasonably good.

A big factor was postal voting which started more than three weeks beforehand and represented maybe a fifth of all votes. The greater the time gap between the act of voting and being polled is bound to increase errors.

Mike Smithson




h1

Taking stock of 2016. What do you think were the biggest events of this extraordinary political year?

December 5th, 2016

2015-new-year-big-ben-chimes-midnight-youtube

Take the survey in advance of this week’s PB/Polling Matters Podcast

Ahead of this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast the team have come up with a short survey so that readers of PB can give their thoughts on the biggest winners, losers, shocks and moments from the past year.

Also, perhaps controversially, there is a question in the survey on who people think has been the PB poster of the year.

To take part please click here.

Results will be read out on this weeks show which is due, as usual midweek.

PS. All answers will be anonymous unless you leave your name. Then we may read out the best comments on the show. It’s up to you.

Keiran Pedley



h1

Tonight’s local by-election

December 5th, 2016

1017201683228

Carnoustie and District (SNP defence) on Angus
Result of council at last election (2012): Scottish National Party 15, Independents 8, Conservatives 4, Labour 1, Liberal Democrat 1 (Scottish National Party majority of 1)
Result of ward at last election (2012): Emboldened denotes elected
Independents 483, 1,750 (51%)
Scottish National Party 582, 1,029 (36%)
Labour 274 (6%)
Conservatives 271 (6%)
Liberal Democrat 41 (1%)
EU Referendum Result: REMAIN 32,747 (55%) LEAVE 26,511 (45%) on a turnout of 68%
Candidates duly nominated: David Cheap (Ind), Mark McDonald (SNP), Beth Morrison (Lib Dem), Derek Shaw (Con), Ray Strachen (Lab)



h1

The Article 50 Supreme Court case betting moves a notch to the government on the first morning – but still behind

December 5th, 2016

betdata-article-50-supreme-court-ruling

Whether you can read anything into this I doubt

If you’ve got lots of time on your hands you can watch the case live here.

The best comment so far is “OJ Simpson it ain’t”. This is all dry legal argument and will go on like this for most of the week. The verdict’s not expected until the new year.

Mike Smithson




h1

As the A50 Supreme Court hearing starts YouGov finds just 46% having a favourable view of senior judges

December 5th, 2016

sc

LEAVE voters give them a net negative

Yesterday Ipsos-MORI released its latest trust index and found that 81% saying that judges tell the truth. The fieldwork took place nearly a month ago.

In new YouGov polling asking about favourability a very different picture emerges as the chart above shows. This is based on fieldwork carried out in the middle of last week in the days before today’s start of the historic Article 50 Supreme Court hearing.

The split between the views of REMAIN and LEAVE voters is very striking highlighting the huge divide that had has existed since LEAVE won 51.89% of the votes on June 23rd.

I wonder what the next round of polling on judges favourability is going to look like.

Mike Smithson




h1

Saved by der Bellen but what will the Italian referendum bring for the EU?

December 4th, 2016

Another polling failure? A bit harsh when polls are banned for the final fortnight

Latest Italian referendum betting

 

TSE



h1

In the week the Article 50 case is heard before the Supreme Court, the public has more than three times the trust in judges than journalists

December 4th, 2016

Ipsos Mori have published their annual veracity index, with the Article 50 case being heard in the UK’s highest appellate court, it was amusing to contrast the trust in the enemies of the people¬†judges compared to journalists.

Only Government ministers, and politicians in general are less trusted than journalists, whilst Estate Agents and Bankers have better trust ratings than journalists. This might explain why Nigel Farage’s planned 100,000 march on the Supreme Court turned out to be, as we say in Yorkshire, all fart and no follow through.

The fieldwork ended just before the High Court ruled against the Government in the Article 50 case, but a substantial part of the fieldwork was carried out whilst the High Court was hearing the case, but before headlines that described the judiciary as the enemies of the people.

TSE