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Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks.

If you’ve always been a lurker, you’re on the Edge of Heaven, why not enter heaven tonight and delurk.

The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant story)

• Tories win over Generation Y while losing touch with older voters, David Cameron’s stress on individual responsibility plus a firm approach on welfare resonates with under-33s
• David Cameron should say to Tories thinking of replacing him, I’m your man, for the 2015 election, see this polling analysis from Peter Kellner
• YouGov ask the greatest polling question of all time, they combines four of my favourite things, Amy Pond, Star Trek, James Bond and Scottish Independence, no really they do.
• Freedom, and the cause of Scottish Independence takes a hit tomorrow, as tomorrow is the 707th anniversary of the shellacking the English gave Robert the Bruce at the Battle of Methven 
• Hillary Clinton today gets, Everything She Wants, for her campaign to be President in 2016 , with a first declaration of support from a sitting US senator
• Today is the forty-third anniversary of the 1970 General Election
• Losing to Germany in a World Cup match does have it upsides, as England losing to Germany was blamed for Labour’s defeat in 1970.
• The G8, Obama, and Syria: Why Putin came out on top
• A good interview with one of the Tory Young Guns, Jacob Rees-Mogg
• Ed Miliband needs to hold out against EU referendum, He would be betting the ranch on an issue which is not of primary concern to the electorate
• If Miliband is serious about tackling low pay, he needs to embrace the unions
• Unison set out their expectations for a Labour government
• Whilst the leader of Unison personalises the welfare debate, and goes after one woman in particular, accusing her of ‘having babies to get state handouts’
• To Eurosceptics, Ken Clarke and David Cameron are bad boys, because Ken Clarke writes “The Thatcherite case for staying in the EU“, Whilst Dave says Britain could lose out from trade deal if we pull out of EU 
• Cyprus president calls for bailout overhaul to save economy
• Ukip In Donside By-Election Gaffe After Sending Leaflet To Late MSP Brian Adam
• Museum of Science and Industry ‘saved’ 
• Expect scorching hot summers for the next ten years, Run of wet summers could last another 10 years, Britain has a higher chance of wet summers for up to the next ten years, the Met Office has predicted, after a new weather pattern was identified in the North Atlantic
• One for conspiracy theorists, the Mayor of Watford had to sign the official secrets act because of the Bilderberg meeting.
• Whitby Labour Councillor fathers child with alien queen – his wife is “unhappy”

TSE

EdM odds-on: Theresa & Boris joint 2nd

Boris & Theresa May now 12/1 joint 2nd favourites to be next PM. EdM 8/11 favourite. http://t.co/5ytVwnI62K See pic.twitter.com/YiclNEMU6b

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 18, 2013

@MSmithsonPB interesting that if those 12 names two are brothers, two are married and three were in the bullingdon club together #we'recrap

— Mr Thompson (@FeastSpectre) June 18, 2013

Latest YouGov "best on Schools & Education" ratings point to Gove's policies being a driver of LD > LAB switching pic.twitter.com/ZiTIbhgPKw

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 18, 2013

2010 LD voters give LAB a 22% lead on the issue

Whenever there is any polling involving the coalition’s education policies or Michael Gove personally the key swing group of voters next time, 2010 Lib Dems, appear to be taking a hostile view.

Today we have YouGov’s regular ratings on the best party for different policy areas and there’s been a move to Labour on Schools/Education. The party was 5% ahead – now that’s up to 9%.

Where it gets very interesting is on the very different view that the remaining Lib Dem voters have compared with those who supported the party at GE2010.

The chart below shows the breakdown – just click on the tab to see the differences.

As can be seen 59% of current LD voters back their own party as you might expect. But just look at the split amongst 2010 Lib Dems where LAB policies are ahead with a 22% gap over the Tories.

Now what this polling doesn’t show is the extent to which this might have influenced voting intentions.

We do know, however, from other polling by YouGov and Ipsos-MORI that education is more important as an issue to 2010 Lib Dems than those who voted for other parties.

As I keep on saying 24% of the GB vote in 2010 went to the LDs. That’s going to be a lot smaller at the election and how this segment reacts could be good pointer.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

Follow @MSmithsonPB

Home of the web’s best political conversation

Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks.

If you’ve always been a lurker, why not delurk tonight, it will be a Red Letter Day the day you post for the first time.

The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant story)

• Hopi Sen asks, Labour’s polling softening: What’s behind it, and does it matter?
• Remember how Clinton sealed the deal for Obama last year? Blair could do that for Miliband
• David Miliband on what Labour needs to do to win
• How Cameron and Clegg could reach a deal on cutting pensioner benefits
• Coalition seeks shake-up of pensions industry with new “collective defined contribution” plan
• Strictly Come Dorries: Now Tory MP Nadine wants a place on dance show as she attacks ‘idiots’ who think Cameron is a winner
• Supreme Court Cites Bush v. Gore For The First Time Ever
• Huzzah, EU Votes To End Roaming Charges In 2014
• China Crisis? China’s shadow banking system is out of control and under mounting stress as borrowers struggle to roll over short-term debts, Fitch Ratings has warned.
• Michael Gove says ‘Labour’s school policy is so tortured they should send in the UN to end the suffering’
• UKIP councillor says voters mistook him for a woman
• The west’s dominance of the Middle East is ending
• Tomorrow is a great day for fans of Eton College, Coalitions and European Unity, for it is the 198th anniversary of The Battle of Waterloo. If you’re lacking in knowledge about the Battle, read more about it here.
• Or if you prefer a short video about the Battle of Waterloo, click here.
• Borisstan: the independent city state and docking station for global wealth formerly known as London What would the British capital look like in the future if it broke away from the rest of the country?
• Prisons in this country are becoming hotels.
• Kuwait to ‘execute prisoners on live television’
• When Star Wars meets Doctor Who
• Living in Manchester, this is what I have to put up with.
• Following Tony Robinson’s Knighthood, my favourite scene from Blackadder (NSFW or if you’ve got kids in earshot)

TSE

Who is going to get the chop?

With a reshuffle likely in July Justine Greening moves to favourite slot at Ladbrokes for next cabinet exit. pic.twitter.com/OqdpzI8Hl1

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 17, 2013

If more than one cabinet leaves on the same Ladbrokes operate their dead heat rules. Thus if three of the 23 members settlement would be based on a third of your stake at the odds that you originally got.

The art here is to spot a long shot who might just be in the running.

A pitfall here is that the bet only applies to official cabinet members not to those are allowed to attend. In last reshuffle quite a few cabinet ministers lost their places but we’re still allowed to attend.

I don’t envisage any changes amongst the Lib Dem five.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

Follow @MSmithsonPB

Another headache for Grant Shapps

There’s a wide awareness of the fact that the Lib Dems, who chalked up 24% of the GB vote in 2010, will be putting 100% of their efforts into no more than 75 seats – the 57 they are defending and a few more where they think they are in with a shout.

All the focus has been on what this will do in the LD battlegrounds but it could also make a big difference in the LAB-CON marginals themselves where Grant Shapps is hoping the yellow vote won’t be hit too much thus blunting the LAB challenge.

But the LD plan to have the most focused election campaign ever means that there will be nothing more than token Lib Dem efforts in the remaining 555 constituencies.

The campaigns there will consist of little more than utilising the facility that’s provided to all candidates to have one leaflet distributed by the Royal Mail. Candidates will be put up by the yellows and will be on the ballot but that is about all.

Activists will be encouraged to put their efforts into their targets helped by the party’s new distributed phone-banking system which was put through its paces in Easteigh.

Thus there’ll be no real efforts to retain the votes of the large numbers who opted for the LDs in 2010 and their support will be squeezed like never before.

The impact of this, I believe, will be magnified in the 80 or so key LAB-CON battlegrounds where the red and blue campaigns will be going full throttle and more.

Given that the polling is showing that Labour is picking up the lion’s share of 2010 LDs who’ve switched the absence of LD campaiging simply adds to the pressure on the Tories. For the last thing Grant Shapps wants is for there to be any more switching.

The general election in the non-marginals will be very different for everybody. None of the parties will be putting that much effort in where it doesn’t matter.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

Follow @MSmithsonPB

Home of the web’s best political conversation

Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks.

If you’ve always been a lurker, why not Take That opportunity which Nighthawks gives you to delurk. It Only Takes A Minute to post, Never Forget, we were all lurkers once.

The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant story)

• Steve Richards says, both Labour and the Tories think they’re going to lose the next election. Maybe they’re both right
• Whilst James Forsyth says Someone has got to win the next election
• Boris Johnson tops David Cameron – and his own party
• A swing of the handbag reveals Mrs May’s ambition
• Street lights may be turned off to help fund elderly care, councils warn
• Labour MP says she thinks the security services are spying on her
• GCHQ intercepted foreign politicians’ communications at G20 summits
• House of Lords could swell to 2,000 to balance ‘immovable block’ of Liberal Democrat peers. Hundreds of new Labour, Tory and Ukip peers would be needed to dilute Lib Dem over-representation
• A Lib Dem Bar chart
• SNP’s Flemish ally warns: Independent Scotland can’t have a-la-carte EU membership

• The Guardian says, Meet Polly Toynbee and Aditya Chakrabortty for a coffee on Tuesday, If you’d like to talk to our columnists face to face, here’s a chance to do so at our new coffee shop in east London, go on, you know you want too.

• Name a college after Thatcher? She might have been good but she does not trump Jesus, says Oxford uni chief Lord Patten
• I recommend the book, but the Inside story of deals that built coalition set to be a TV drama
• The Green Agenda could inspire and challenge this generation – and help Labour take on UKIP and the Tories
• Barack Obama is a Robot in disguise, transformer?
• Psychic Derek Acorah cancels show due to “unforeseen circumstances”

TSE

He suggests LAB would go for minority government if it fell short

Last July I got a three figure sum on at Hills at 12/1 that GE2015 could produce another hung parliament but the largest party would would try to govern on its own without a coalition.

My argument at the time was that I cannot see either the Tories or the Lib Dems wanting to enter into another coalition because there’s too much bad blood on both sides. My sense also was that there is so much residual hostility within the Labour movement to the Lib Dems that it would be hard for Ed Miliband to go down the coalition route even if that is what he wanted.

That view is reinforced today by an interview in the Sunday Times (££) today with the former Treasury Secretary, Liam Byrne. In it he says that they could achieve more without entering into a partnership with the Liberal Democrats. The current government is so weak it has “given coalitions a bad name” and says his party must “study that lesson hard”.

The challenge with trying to go on its own, as seen in the wonderful National Theatre production, This House, on the 1974-79 parliament, is how does a minority government get its business through? They could be held to ransom at any time by their own MPs as well as small groups from other parties.

The bland assumption seen by some CON and LAB figures that the LDs or other groupings would give the largest party a “supply and confidence” arrangement is pure wishful thinking. Why should they?

Everything, of course, depends on the numbers and at the moment the polls are pointing to a big LAB majority.

If EdM’s team do fall short then I can see a big argument over the next step with Mr. Byrne clearly on the no deal side.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

Follow @MSmithsonPB