The disappointing summer of Sir Malcolm Rifkind
August 17th, 2005
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Does John Major’s Foreign Secretary stand an earthly?
Our chart based on the best betting prices showing the implied probability of Malcolm Rifkind becoming Tory leader says it all. After an early flurry in the first week or so of the campaign when it touched 10% the Rifkind figure has slipped to barely a third of that. Even Rifkind’s much publicised “Tories are defective” statement at the weekend has not given him the boost he must have hoped for.
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Given that this speech was a sharp attack on the way his party had handled its first eight years in opposition it was always going to be something of a gamble.
To non-Tories much of what he said appeared correct yet the problem for the party is that it is probably not yet ready to be told it. You have been hyped up to fight an election on one basis and it must be difficult to acknowledge that this was wrong. Rifkind’s approach had a similar feel to it to the famous party conference “nasty party” speech by the former Chairman, Theresa May.
A further challenge for Malcolm Rifkind is that he will always be associated with the 1992-1997 Government of John Major.
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Like Ken Clarke he was a key player during those critical years when Tony Blair shifted the political centre of gravity by totally transforming the way that the electorate saw the two main parties. The Tories were demonised and so it remains.
Rifkind’s strategy must be to stay in the race until the party conference and then hope that in the intense media glare the qualities that he brings might shine through. For there’s little doubt that he’s one of the best orators and he is certainly ahead of the front-runner, David Davis, in this regard.
Is we worth the current 34/1? The price seems about right and I have a weakness for long-shots.
Mike Smithson
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Rifkind is a real talent and the Conservatives are lucky to have him back, but the odds perhaps reflect the fact that none of his abilities have been shown positively in this leadership contest.
Even Rifkind’s much publicised “Tories are defective” statement at the weekend has not given him the boost he must have hoped for.
There are a number of Tories now who only ever appear in the press when they attack their own party - so no wonder they are tempted to go on doing it, and no wonder if others are tempted in the same way.
Even if you accept the thesis that the Conservatives’ problems now mirror those of Labour in the 1980s - and most objective analysis suggests the party just doesn’t have the off-putting policies that did Old Labour so much harm - there is a striking difference between those who sought to move Labour to the centre and those who seek to move the Tories to the centre now. The difference is that while Labour modernisers were often very critical of their party on certain issues, that criticism was far more in private, and consisted of winning the argument with their colleagues. Most of all, they never resorted to coming up with terms like “nasty party”, “Tory Taliban” and now “defective”, which are a gift to the other parties and which - within their own parties - do nothing but put everyone who might otherwise be persuaded on the defensive. It’s this negativism that does the modernising cause much harm - who is going to be inspired by a movement that can only spurt vague cliches when asked to set out their ideas, and that is so vicious in condemnation if it turns out not everyone is persuaded.
I can’t agree with your comment that Rifkind is a talent. IMHO he was a terrible Foreign Secretary whose Balkans policy was utterly shameful and something that deserves to shape his political epitaph. He was never going to get anywhere with this vain leadership bid. He would be a disater in the polls for the Tories - another IDS with voters - a complete turn off for anyone under 55 I would imagine. I’m sure an inevitable ‘I’m backing Clarke’ article can’t be too far away.
p.s. if the tories aren’t ready to be told what problems they have after three election defeats, one wonders when they will be willing to hear it!
There’s a difference between constructive self-criticism and shrill abuse of people who make sacrifices on your behalf.
What do you mean by that?
I think Rifkind is an excellent politician who will appeal to a lot of middle class ex-Tories, he’s a moderate, thoughtful individual, and whilst I doubt he has a chance of being leader I,ve no doubt he’ll get one of the top jobs, possibly even shadow chancellor.
I have to admit to putting a small bet on Rifkind when he was at his most expensive.
I think the Tories won and won because Labour wasn’t trusted to be economically competent. On the other hand the Tories are losing and losing because their values are seen to be wrong - they’re the party of the rich. As long as the public trusts Labour to be competent, there’s no way they’ll be moving back to the Tories.
The Tories need to come up with a creed which has something to offer to everyone. I think tax cuts for poor people - lifting the income tax threshold dramatically for instance - could be part of that policy. A compelling dialogue on how to do better in the public services would be another. The alternative is to persuade the public, as Thatcher did, that doing what’s in the interests of the rich is also in everyone’s interests. They haven’t even started trying to do that and I doubt after Thatcher whether they’d have any chance of success.
On the other hand they’ll get a big boost when the economy goes belly up, whether that’s sooner or later.
That’s me offering mugs a chance to bet on Rifkind on betfair…
Give me your money!
“I have a weakness for long-shots”
The same can be said of any Lib Dem member
Max at 6 - evidence? He couldn’t even hold on to his seat or win it back in a middle class former tory constituency. exactly the kind of seat he would have to win as Conservative leader to become PM.
7- I’m not sure that Thatcher ever persuaded people that what was good for the rich was good for everybody. I think this was just one of those policies that people were prepared to put up with as part of a package that they thought was overall better than what Labour was offering. Thatcher’s success had a lot to do with the unpopularity of Labour in 1979, reigning in the unions, the Labour/SDP split and council house sales (plus a purely temporary Falklands effect).
Picking on individual Thatcherite policies (and updating them?) could be a big mistake particular as the popular perception is that the very rich (especially company directors) have had their snouts firmly in the trough for the past few years and show no signs of ever pulling them out.
The analogy between the Tories to-day and Labour in 1987 can be overdone.
It was clear to Labour in 1987 that “modernisation” was required - the collapse of communism in 1989/90 was undoubtedly most helpful in persuading members that socialism (however they understood that term) was finished, at least for a generation. And, after the Scargill débacle, TU leaders, however personally left-wing, knew it too - and they provide a ballast for Labour - the Tories (step forward, Lady Thatcher, and take a bow!) no longer have an equivalent - hence for example Rifkind behaving in a way that would have been unrecognisable to a previous generation of wannabe grandees.
Also, 1987 was an unarguable defeat - 2005 was a torture of Tantalus, as the discussions about swings and votes in England starkly show.
And lastly, and I think this is the real poison for the Tories, there is an ideological gap between economic liberalism of the Hayer/Thatcher (and Yellow Book?) type and - we had a brief duscussion of this yesterday - conservatism as preached by the likes of Roger Scruton - a gap, I suggest, as wide as that between Roy Jenkins and Tony Benn 25 years ago, but even more insidious, because most Tories can see some merit in both sides of the argument and if they are even to get up in the mornings have to believe that push won’t come to shove. This used to be called “muddling through” but I’ll let you guys into a secret - it only works (if it ever works) if you’re in power already!
By about 1993/4 people had stopped hating the Conservative Party and started pitying it… and I’m not so sure that’s not still largely true, at least for its opponents.
“And lastly, and I think this is the real poison for the Tories, there is an ideological gap between economic liberalism of the Hayer/Thatcher (and Yellow Book?) type and - we had a brief duscussion of this yesterday - conservatism as preached by the likes of Roger Scruton”
This is very true: but perhaps Thatcher’s unique gift was in seeming to authentically represent social conservatism (of a more visceral type than the “cherished British institutions” that she didn’t entirely subscribe to) as well as the free market. They have found no one to replace her…
IMHO anyone who uses terms like Tory Taliban, the nasty party or the Tories are Defective should not be considered for the leadership. These statements are supposed to be headline grabbing, but in the speakers interests, definitely not in the party’s. Most Conservatives get angry at such comments, even if they agree with some of the thinking behind them.
For this reason Malcolm Rifkind made a huge blunder on the weekend.
Totally agree, BV. Thatcher projected a persona which people could inscribe their own fantasies onto (so does Blair in his own way) - the reason non-Tories actually don’t care who succeeds Howard is that none of them - from what we can see - appear to have that gift. I note that it’s precisely (rather than any particular policy approach) that which the Davis camp is plugging away at…
10 - He put in a pretty good performance (in 2001) in what has never been a safe Tory seat in the last 50 years (it was held by around 40 votes at one point in the 60’s) and on what was a bad night in Scotland. It also paved the way for us to retake it in 2003. If you ever visit Pentlands you’d also notice its not universally middle-class (containing places like Wester Hailes). Certainly less so than either West or South.
13 - BV, your comment about cherished institutions has set me thinking (always dangerous). It might have been that Thatch was uniquely placed to remove these precisely because she was a woman. In my limited experience of the distaff side, they are far more unsentimental and much less clubby than men.
The problem for social conservatives is that regardless of what you might think of modern British social values (and there is a lot to be concerned with), outside of strict religious households (and even within some), most people now are touched by association with someone who forty or fifty years ago would havve been beyond the pale - unmarried, gay, single parent, disabled, or whatever. It makes disinterring social conservatism a much less mainstream project - it would have to be hitched to a pretty whizzy economic policy, and whilst GB is in place there is no evidence that people would be prepared to go with that.
13 - I suspect that the other person who managed to combine and resolve both wings (to his own mind) was Enoch Powell.
1) Peter - if we accept your argument (and the polling evidence points that way), the difference between Labour in the 80s and the Tories now can be summarised as follows:
Labour - brand a bit tarnished but basically sound; crap product that no-one would touch with a barge pole
Tories - product that people seem to like; brand that puts people off.
Now I’m not a marketeer, but I’m pretty sure I know which problem I’d rather have …
Peter at 1: The point about only getting in the press when they attack the party is a general problem is British politics. It is extremely easy for any serving MP to get on the front page of three quarters of the press: simply think up a memorably damning phrase about your party or leadership, or say something outrageous that panders to the tabloids. Conversely, it is almost impossible to get decent coverage with a thoughtful speech, unless you are one of a small group of people typecast as ‘thinkers with no realistic ambitions’ (’Two-Brains’ Willis is the classic example), and even then it’s probably page 7.
Now if you’re Rifkind or anyone else who is clearly not winning the leadership race at the moment, what do you do? Most of the answer is ‘lobby your colleagues one by one’, but if they never read anything about you they won’t be very receptive. So…
10 Bally Eric . I think in fairness to Max if the Arch Angel Gabriel had stood as a Tory in Pentlands in 97 he’d have been swept away in the Labour landslide . Rifkind must have known this and he deserves some credit for not slipping on his shorts and coming under starters orders for the Tory chicken run ……. Is that Brian Mawhinny ???
http://www.reel.com/content/reelimages/chickenrun/desktops/chickenrun_run_1024.jpg
His result in 2001 was a respectable one. As Max says, Pentlands had been marginal for decades.
Fair enough. I still think he was a no-hoper as potential leader from the off and it’s all about getting a plum shadow cabinet job. i just don’t rate him as a politician that much. i’m sure he’s a pretty decent bloke, but the tories need to pick a winner this time if they’re serious about returning to government.
22. Ken Clarke is to sever his buisness links in preparation for his bid for the Conservative leadership according to the Times :
http://www.timesonline.co.uk
Click “Britain” and scroll and click “Full List of Articles” and click 22nd article .
23 Bally Eric. Agreed. Rifkind simply doesn’t have the support or the media clout to mount a viable challenge and a lot of the “contenders” are simply positioning themselves for a decent job post Howard.
Whilst we are pontificating I’ll give you a few of my thoughts.
I don’t believe Britain is really dramatically more liberal than it used to be sadly. What is more sad is that some in my party kid themselves otherwise but that’s another story.
The problem for the Conservatives is that the Conservative vote is far lower than the conservative vote in virtually every seat in the land, bar a few which have a Tory incumbent with a big personal vote.
A fair number of Conservative policies whilst in my opinion disastrous would probably be popular at least in the short term provided the Tories weren’t championing them.
The reason I think is much simpler than many posters. It is a giant hangover from 18 years of government in which huge swathes of people were alienated, to some extent inevitably.
Take my generation of students for example, and for that matter the staff at the universities they attended. The Conservatives almost seemed hell bent on treating them with contempt such that few young people of that generation will now vote Tory. Ever. Most of those students who were Tory at that time gave the party an even worse name than it deserved, a fact which even Lord Tebbit recognised.
So in short I don’t think the Tory wounds can be healed except by the passage of time. It would help if they ditched some of the crackpot nonsense, embraced democracy etc etc but still probably 55% of the population are lost till we snuff it.
26 - Jon, some well put points there. But it strikes me that Blair has been trying to do the same thing (”scars on my back” etc) which begs the question what will happen to the next generation?
Jon - I don’t know which generation you’re from but the overwhelming majority of my generation (I’m 24) don’t care one way or the other about politics. As for staff at Universities being treated with contempt by Conservatives the boot is very much on the other foot. In my politics classes you were treated as having something wrong with you if you voiced a right-wing view. Given the outright hostility of Universities to Conservative students its very heartening to see that the Conservative & Unionist Association at Edinburgh is begining to thrive again.
I was at University 1987-1993 and the antics of the few Tories there were were like something out of a Tom Sharpe novel.
Even then (assuming every lecturer and student who went to University at that time hates us) that doesn’t account for 55% of the population. Especially given the University population at that time. There is a massive untapped reserve of young people who do not vote at the present time. Its these we should be reaching out for which I would imagine make up a far greater proportion of those who went to university in the mid 80’s and early 90’s.
30,28 etc. I’m of a similiar generation to Max (also 24), and still consider the Tories not Labour to have been the dominant political force in my formative years (but then I guess I was keen enough to watch the ‘92 election at the age of 11 so perhaps I’m slightly atypical
). A fair few people that I know of my generation are de-politicized not because they are dis-interested but because they feel they have no-one to vote for. I have friends who won’t vote Tory because they dislike the negative campaigning, the anti-immigration feeling; they wont vote NuLab as they feel betrayed by Tony Blair over the last few years (over Iraq, going back on no tuition fees, etc.); Strangely they also wont vote LibDem - typical quote “Whilst the LibDems are great at local government, and I trust them to empty my bins, I wouldn’t want them running the country”.
I suspect (but dont know how to test this) that with the advent of Pop Idol, Big Brother etc. people are used to voting from a choice of 10-15 people. In this wide a range you will usually find someone who you can comfortably side with for having roughly the same values and opinions as you. In a choice of 3 most people will not feel strongly allied to any particular one and thus will not vote due to a percieved ‘lack or choice’, or will resort to the ‘lesser of 2 evils’ arguement (Not vastly dissimiliar to the ‘hold your nose’ arguement to vote NuLab at the election).
26 Jon The core of your argument is sound: after nearly 2 decades of Conservative government, everyone had something to moan about. After all, it is the government’s fault. Always.
But as you recognise this fades with time and will fade faster with a proactive approach from us Tories to create a new picture in people’s heads. And that will be achieved by how we behave as much as what we are talking about. Those yobbo YC’s you mention represent an approach that has stuck in the popular consciousness (well aided by anti-Tory media) . But as any regime reaches its sell-by date unintentional self parody seems to intimate the end is nigh.
The Labour party were in the same position in 1979. During and around the debate on the no confidence motion that finished Labour off, the Socialist self parody reached a crescendo. They had, or so it felt, been in power on and off for 15 years and what did we get? Rubbish on the streets and the dead unburied and us Tories exploited it wonderfully and used it for a good ten years to not only keep Labour out of power but disunited and rudderless too. Labour are returning the favour now.
But the NuLab self parody is beginning to peep through: Charles Clarke or David Blunkett are stars. Its impossible to have a John Prescott parody as he doesn’t approve of caged birds.
33 Blue2win . Spot on . The difficulty will come in 2013 or 2017 ?? when the worm turns , as indeed it always does , when the anti Labour vote will be split 2 ways in England and accordingly the prospect of an outright Conservative win is small , especially if the Lib Dems continue to be seen as a viable force in two and a half party politics .
34 Jack W Nah, 2010 is comeuppance time for NuLab. 2005 was their 1992 and they will have to drag the parliament out to the last dregs hoping for better auguries. They won’t get them.
BV By the way I suspect the Guardianistas are most concerned about a D Cameron leadership as they take every opportunity to do him down while boosting KC and DD. Or is the Groaning’s column also written by Wat Tyler?
Your helpful link was http://www.guardian.co.uk/diary/story/0,3604,1550388,00.html
35 Blue2win . “2010 is cumeuppance time for NuLab .. ”
Is that a 5 year parliament predication and a Tory victory in 2010 or a narrowish 2009 NuLab win and a Black **day for NuLab in 2010 ? or don’t you care as long as the Tories can pick on the NuLab carcass !
From Nick Palmer @ 20 “unless you are one of a small group of people typecast as ‘thinkers with no realistic ambitions’ (’Two-Brains’ Willis is the classic example)”
David Willetts has obviously made a big impression on Nick!! Rik has been called a lot of things on this site but dont recall “two Brains”.
Re Betfair, £85 has been staked on Seb Coe! Well I suppose a winner would be a start.
37 Icarus . “…£85 has been staked on Seb Coe ”
I think it’s President Chirac trying to damage Coe’s credibility or Steve Ovett having a chuckle !!
£8 has been traded on Derek Laud. Even more astonishing.
young people are agnostic about politics cus the economy is doing well. As long as a 20 odd year old can have enough money to get drunk, buy new clothes, own a mobile phone etc he doesnt care.
If the economy was to mess up, he couldnt get a job or do those things then he would start caring.
[33] Its impossible to have a John Prescott parody as he doesn’t approve of caged birds If that’s original, B2W, whoever succeeds Howard should hire you as a speechwriter
39 - I wonder if it was in the wrong market… someone else probably put £100 on David Cameron to win Big Brother.
39 Woody . Excellent !! I nearly choked on my Nicholas Soames sandwich !
Didnt want to display ignorance - who is Derek Laud (Have I just had a High Court Judge moment?)
44. He was a Big Brother contestant who wrote speeches for Margeret Thatcher. Google him. Seems a very interesting bloke.
44 Icarus . “Who is Derek Laud ?”
I couldn’t have put it better !
Derek Laud is a keen fox hunter who happens to be black. He was once challenged by a hunt saboteur who yelled at him “One hundred years ago, they’d have been hunting you” to which he replied “Dear Boy, one hundred years ago I’d have been eating you.”
47. Great comeback. That dreadfil Davina McCall described him as the most popular Tory for 10 years. Frightening that she’s probably right.
47. Great comeback. That dreadful Davina McCall described him as the most popular Tory for 10 years. Frightening that she’s probably right.
47. Great comeback. That dreadful Davina McCall described him as the most popular Tory for 10 years. Frightening that she’s probably right.
48/50 Woody . Not a bad comeback , comeback , comeback yourself !
Blue2win I think we pretty much agree. By the way Max I was not trying to say graduates etc were the only people that matter far from it - just that it makes up a section of society which is important where Tory support is much lower than the support of broadly Conservative values, and that was due to far too long in absolute power.
PS The Tories at Exeter University seem hell bent on doing as much damage to the good name of the Tory party as any I can remember in the 80s… some things have not changed as much as they should.
I was at Exeter in the eighies. I’m intrigued to know what EUCA is currently doing that damages the Tory Party.
I remember when I was there the university Law Society got onto the World at One because at their annual dinner, some of its members started a food fight at which guest speaker Sir Robin Day got hit by a condom filled with cheese.
51. I thought the double/triple posting couldn’t happen now.
52. I think Adrian Rogers did more to damage Tory chances in Exeter than any Uni could do. Despicable man.
52 - The Tories at Exeter University seem hell bent on doing as much damage to the good name of the Tory party as any I can remember in the 80s
Re Brand comments passim - Oxymoron???
52/55 . Have I missed a post or three ? What’s the problem with Exeter Uni Tories ? apart from the usual …….
52 Jon Young Conservatives or students? I seem to remember that it didn’t make much difference what the political allegiance of students was, the dumb tricks and dangerous horseplay were the same. Or should I say ‘our’.
41 IA Thank you. All my own words, I believe, but who can tell what subliminal influences there have been. You can’t really make it up about John Prescott. The phrase comes naturally about a man who says after regaining his earthly estate again,”It’s great to be back on terra cotta”.
56 - Well, this tells you who they are. I particularly like the General Secretary (Shurely shome mishtake??), and the Social Secretary’s charmign surname.
58. I think David Brent must have written those character descriptions. Trying too hard methinks.
59 - “I think David Brent must have written those character descriptions.”
I love the bit in the first Christmas special where he is filling in the Dateline form… “well you can’t say very attractive”.
57 Blue2win. “John Prescott ….. It’s great to be back on terra cotta”
Are you sure Prezza wasn’t correct - NuLab canvassers in Cheadle !!
http://www.tomcowan.net/images/terracotta/IM001839.JPG
58 - I’m sure I will be hauled up for disloyalty for saying this but I think it would be a joy to watch the the Exeter guys ‘n’ gals canvassing for the party in Cumbernauld or somewhere similar.
61 - and another thing, has anyone made a ‘War on Terra’ joke yet?
I’m being disloyal mocked them I suppose but those profiles are just cringeworthy. The guy smoking the pipe in particular. Doubt they would last 5 minutes canvessing the estates that I do.
Lol, the Exeter Conservative Future finally make it on PB.com! Their branch is one of the largest in the country and is naturally dominated by Exeter University students. The University has always had a strong Tory element, catering for rich kids who couldn’t get in to Oxbridge, plus the green welly brigade who are attracted to the nearby Dartmoor/Exmoor.
As a recent Exeter Uni graduate I found them a generally spiteful bunch. I was initially taken aback to meet young people with such right wing views. They were like something out of the 1950’s and from my experience reaffirm the image of greed, intolerance and general nastiness that tarnishes the Tories brand. In their enthusiasm some of their candidates in local elections have also used dirty tricks. If they are the future of the Tory party then the Lib/Lab majority don’t have much to fear.
65. We’re not all like that Paul. It would indeed be a frightning prospect if we were.
Rifkind is possibly my favourite politician after having seen him at the Cambridge Union making mincemeat of George Galloway a couple of years back, a friend of mine happened to get up to challenge one of his points at one stage and completely forgot what she was going to say. Sir Malcolm in the bar afterwards told me to tell her that this was exactly what had happened to Winston Churchill in his first speech in the Commons. Really is a decent guy, and superintelligent. But he won’t be leader, I see him as more of a Willie Whitelaw type deputy to Clarke or Davis (I suppose he’ll probably come out reluctantly in support of the former, as he did last time, when he realises he doesn’t have enough support of his own). A Clarke-Rifkind dream ticket in the works?
67. Anyone know what kind of relationship DD had with Rifkind when he was one of his ministers?
I wasn’t involved at all in Student politica, mostly because I had better things to do at Uni. Those that I know now seem quite allright and I doubt those people are particularly typical of the average young Tory. Its difficult anough to get young people involved in politics so I don’t think its particularly helpful to villify those that do. Having said that their was a weird guy at Uni who turned out to be in the Labour club. He was into war-gaming and brought a lap top into lectures. We gave him the witty nickname of ‘Lap-top boy’. It seemed very clever at the time!
“He was into war-gaming and brought a lap top into lectures. We gave him the witty nickname of ‘Lap-top boy’. It seemed very clever at the time!”
You didn’t study maths by any chance, did you?
“Anyone know what kind of relationship DD had with Rifkind when he was one of his ministers?”
From Bruce Anderson’s article on DD from the Independent in May:
“At the FO, his boss was Malcolm Rifkind. Foreign Secretaries often have to travel between many time zones, work hard, and grab sleep when they can. One night, Mr Rifkind got to bed very late, knowing that he would have to rise for duty very early and that it would be many long travailed hours before he was next able to sleep.
He was barely horizontal when the phone rang. It was an apologetic private secretary: ‘Foreign Secretary, I’m terribly sorry, but Mr Davis insists that he must speak to you.’ One can imagine the civil servant, doing everything possible to persuade David Davis that there was no need to interrupt Malcolm Rifkind’s rest; the matter could surely wait until morning. Mr Davis was obdurate. He is good at that, and ultimately, an official cannot prevent a Minister of State from talking to the Foreign Secretary.
At the very least, Malcolm Rifkind expected to be informed that Ruritania was about to invade Ruthenia. Instead, he was subjected to a rambling tale about a newspaper article which had been critical of David Davis. Was this going to damage his career prospects? Mr Rifkind, who wanted to return to slumber as rapidly as possible, responded with mildness and reassurance.
David Davis, in the grip of self-obsession, pressed on. Could the Foreign Secretary assure him that there would be no damage to his career? Still determined not to break through the surface of consciousness, and thus be unable to return to sleep quickly, Mr Rifkind remained emollient. What he wanted to say was: ‘I’ll tell you what’ll damage your career; any more phone calls like this.’”
No History (with a bit of politics in 1st and 2nd year)! - Allthough I’ve subsequently become an accountant which I think was my true calling all along! Still it was a better name than ‘war-gaming boy’ which was the other option.
72. Do you know what became of him Max? Might he turn up as a candidate.
72 - it just reminded me of how it was my maths friends who always had the most nicknames for their co-lecturees. “Scary beardy bloke” etc, although you would think there would be many by that name.
74. We had a teacher called werewolf when I was at school on account of his beard. Terrible man with zero personality.
73 - I hope ao Woody. I’m still working on a slogan for why people shouldn’t vote for ‘lap top’ boy. Any suggestions are very welcome. He also used to wear a dodgy (German!) trenchcoat, had a gut out of proportion to the rest of his body and always carried the Guardian under one arm. Unbelievably he had a really hot girlfriend too!
58 - I rather admire the gentleman with the pipe. Reminds me of Letwin (?) saying that he had smoked cannabis but only because a fellow student had mixed it in with his pipe tobacco at college. The sinister General Secretary guy who clearly insisted on being photographed in front of a Union Flag, on the other hand… let’s just say I hope MI5 is keeping a carefully indexed file on him for the good of society.
76 - probably something to do with his laptop.
77. Great excuse for cannabis use. More original than Clintons anyway.
77 - the “rugby shirt with upturned colar” look seems to pay sartorial homage to this individual. CUCA were much more fogeyish IIRC.
80 fogeyish
There are so many people of my acquitance who look like Oliver Letwin… Re Davina, I thought her interview with Makosi was terrible.
82. 450 complaints I’ve heard. I did have the misfortune to watch the final. I don’t like the woman at all to be honest.
Tabman - I’m finding this all a bit hard to take - Lib Dems giving people a lesson on fashion! Don’t even try to deny you’ve got one of those wooly rainbow jumpers with matching Birkenstocks!
Wool exploits the sheep. Our jumpers are made from special lentil fibres. And wearing shoes at all takes you out of touch with nature.
85 - I remember an R.E teacher who believed in the bodies natural odour - it really was vile.
Having confessed to buying a pink leather studded belt and having recently bought a very fetching pink and brown tank-top (its very cool) I will avoid anymore lectures on the subject of fashion.
Max at 69: Idle O/T note if we’re talking about wargamers - politicians have hobbies too and this has been mine for the last 40 years. I wrote two of the main three books on board wargames in the 70s and 80s, something Broxtowe Labour Party swallowed hard about when they selected me. The books came out in half a dozen editions, including an Italian translation, and had total print runs of 70,000 copies.
A board wargame is basically “chess meets history” - you simulate the battle of Waterloo etc. with complex chess-like rules (a 40-page rulebook is commonplace) designed to reflect historical constraints, so you can see what might have happened if Napoleon had attacked sooner/later etc. Miniatures wargames (’toy soldiers’) are better-known in Britain, partly because HG Wells pioneered them. The board games have largely been supplanted by computer simulations (e.g. do a web search on “Hearts of Iron”, which simulates the last world war at strategic level), and I wrote a book about them too. It flopped horribly
83 Woody. I rather think we should have pb.com’s own Big Brother … Oh what fun I’d have !!!!!!!
http://www.orwell.ru/a_life/movies/img/m84_2.jpg
Nick, how interesting, I would never have guessed you were the same person. I remember reading your book in the early 1980s when board wargaming was one of my big hobbies (before I discovered politics!)
I now expect Nick and Lord Rennard to develop jointly a by-election board game.
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87 Nick Palmer . Well you certainly in the right party for wargames ! It’s only a shame our transatlantic cousins don’t read the rule books that come out of Geneva !
87 - Sorry Nick - no offence intended! I admit to trying it myself in my younger days. I found it all horribly complicated though!
My favourite past time is golf, which bizzarely some people find boring but for me its one of the few places you can wear a tank-top without being judged!
84 may I refer the honourable gentleman to my post at 364 on this thread. It seems the Member for Double Entry has the same outdated views on political fashion sense and make up as the sometime Member for Kinkell!
87 - and still popular it would seem! I hope you’re declaring the royalties
92 - Make up!! I’ve been known to apply the occasional bit of tinted moisturiser (for men!) but nothing more than that. I’m still not convinced it brought out my skin’s natural colour though, unless I really am naturally orange! It was almot Kilroy-Silkesque. Another purchase swiftly confiscated by my girlfriend!
94 - Is your surname Factor?
95 - No I’m more of a L’oreal man myself. Because I’m worth it!
I’m not sure the antics of university tories really affect much in student thinking, either positively or negatively. No-one who is put off by “misbehaviour” would ever vote Tory anyway, and as student societies you are only as good as your last social event. The tory students at Oxford, for example, maintained a membership of nearly 1000 throughout the dark days of the 1990s, despite many of these members probably having little if any intention of voting Conservative in a general election.
I’m not sure the antics of university tories really affect much in student thinking, either positively or negatively. No-one who is put off by “misbehaviour” would ever vote Tory anyway, and as student societies you are only as good as your last social event. The tory students at Oxford, for example, maintained a membership of nearly 1000 throughout the dark days of the 1990s, despite many of these members probably having little if any intention of voting Conservative in a general election.
94 Max . Tories with “tinted moisturiser”. I await a juicy quote from Lord Tebbitt…….
99 - Jack, even the Tories let women in these days. Keep up!
“85 - I remember an R.E teacher who believed in the bodies natural odour - it really was vile. ”
I recall similar comments about the member of Parliament for Buckingham on Wikipedia in the run up to the election.
Do bearded ladies have a natural political home?
99 Jack . It is with a sense of deep regret that I understand male persons of the Conservative bent are in engaging in the entirely unnatural activity of applying tinted items to their bodies . A purpose for which is it completely unsuited . This is just another step in the dismantling of the traditional family unit and I shall apply as much pressure as is possible to ensure that the age of consent for such activities is kept at 65 and that Section 28(Loreal)A remains on the statute book .
Signed : Lord Norman Brut Tebbitt.
No mention of Nicks royalities in the register of interests. tut tut tut. http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm/cmregmem/050411/memi22.htm
Interesting about the Lib Dem fashion sense. At the count in south derbyshire, I couldn’t believe the lib dem activists who turned up. Sandles and brown cardigans with dodgy beards and that was the women. Really living up to the stereotype.
103. I use moisturiser as well sometimes so that’s 2 of so. Lord Tebbit will be most upset.
May I recommend this for a radiant complexion? I seems to work for me when taken orally (at least I feel that it must by the great way I feel) but seems to detract from my natural allure when applied externally (eg dribbled down my shirt).
105 Woody . As a Highland kilted warrior I only apply this variety of lard to the upper thighs to prevent chafing :
http://www.secret-oktober.com/bettieboo/bettieboo_lard_2.jpg
106 Stephen . A fine Orcadian product . I think the distillery goes back to around 1800 , which is about the same number of empties that I’ve sent for recycling over the years !!!!!!!
Ken Clarke is shaping up to use the Abraham gambit, promising to slaughter his personal sacred offspring? But is it real?
His machine chugs along in a haze of blue smoke leaving little hints of a change of heart, how he might give up on the Euro and greater EU integration and dump his business interests including the deputy chairmanship of a leading dealer in death sticks.
But it never says, in these planted reports, that he will do this, only that he might if he has a chance of winning. So if he loses we can expect him to turn back to mammon, and get back onto the Euro and tobacco tandem again shamelessly?
109. As regards appearence, I think Ken Clarke needs to leave the just for men alone and go grey gracefully. I notice Brown is gradually introducing grey hair into his barnet.
108 - Just in case you are asked in a pub quiz to name the most northerly produced whisky, the answer is…Scapa (by about half a mile). I think there is a Shetland distillery gearing up to come on line at some point though so the honour might not remain with them.
While the devil may have the best tunes, I fear that Lib Dem constituencies have the best whiskies.
111 Stephen . It’s many moons since I was in Kirkwall but I thought Highland Park was just to the north of Scapa ?? Or was I imbibing a little too much of their quite excellent products at the time !
O/T I think I’ll enjoy some fine Danish bacon , 4 rashers and 1 English sausage !
113 - methinks Jack W does protest too much while cooking up his 4 nut cutlets and 1 lentil quiche
114 book value . No kind Sir , I think I’ll have some Vienesse Whirls !
88,93,104 etc: the royalties dried up a long time ago. I used to get a trickle from Public Leending Right payments based on number of times the books were borrowed, but when that dropped below a fiver a year it stopped too. My garage is still full of wargames with all the other junk (I’m told some people keep cars in garages - bizarre!) and I hope to get back to them in my dotage. I co-designed one for the Sinclair Spectrum too, Their Finest Hour (a title later used by LucasArts, but when I complained I got a ferocious letter from their lawyers which scared me off).
Thanks for the link to Amazon, Tabman - hadn’t seen that! A more enduring legacy was the postal games magazine Flagship, which I launched with a friend (the Tory agent for Walsall, as it happened) in 1983, and later sold to the editors in 1997. That’s still going strong (see flagship.com) and has reached issue 112, still pretty much in the same format though it now covers ’serious games’ more widely, occasionally including political games. There have been a few - the best-known in Britain was the board game Election X (which was OK but a bit basic), but there have been a lot of American Presidential election sims. They all have much the same idea - you allocate campaign time and resources to different states each week and take different policy stances which appeal to different interest groups. The most recent was called The Political Machine, and I suspect you can pick it up on Ebay for peanuts: this allows you to try your skills against increasingly fearsome historical opponents, ending with the likes of Clinton, Reagon and FDR. It’s a bit repetitive but they have amusing TV interviews where you get searching questions and multiple-choice answers depending on your character’s intelligence. The best election game is generally thought to be the German Die Macher (hard to translate - basically “The Movers and Shakers”).
68 - This - from the Spectator - will give you a clue to whatsenior tories may think about Davis
David Davis’s recent misfortunes reminded me of the time he wrote to John Major threatening to resign as Europe minister (Peter Hain’s job) unless he was promised a Cabinet post next time. After I reported this on the eve of an EU summit, Tristan Garel-Jones asked me to ring Davis at home and assure him that TG-J was not my source. `It won’t do any good,’ I said, and it didn’t. Years later when I spotted David leaving Alan Clark’s memorial service, I decided the time had come to reveal that the great diarist had accidentally let slip the threat. That’s why we miss him. Gossip.
26-I would assume that the current generation of students & staff will remember Blair / Labour as the party that tripled their fees & pushed them into even greater debt.
-The party that got involved in a war in Iraq costing billions, based on bogus Weapons of Mass destruction resulting in 25,000 people being killed and 2 years after the war had supposedly ended an average of 30 innocent Iraqi’s being massacred each day.
That really is an epitaph!
118- But the bad news for the tories is that if this is a lasting anti-labour effect it will benefit the Libdems and not the tories. In fact it may keep the LibDems above 20% for the forseeable future.
As was quite clear at the recent GE an anti-government vote no longer automatically benefits the opposition.
If it’s possible to interrupt the male grooming section … can we go back to the comments re Edinburgh Pentlands?
I don’t agree about its marginality. Pentlands had a very clear Conservative plurality up to 1997. The Tory majority was always between 4,500 and 1,500, depending on whether it wasd a good or bad year for the party. Demographically Pentlands contained a huge block of Edinburgh’s ‘illiberal’ middle class (unlike South - which voted Labour in 66) which just outnumbered (and out ‘turned out’ the sink estate of Wester Hailes (and environs). There was always a Tory ‘rock’ which always outnumbered Labour’s ‘hard places’.
It’s the only part of Edinburgh that the Lib Dems haven’t made inroads into - and the only part that returns significant numbers of Tory councillors.
I agree that Rifkind got brownie points for standing in 2001 - but he lost them all (and more) doing the chicken run to K&C in 05). The irony is he’d probably have won SW in May (and the Lib Dems would have defeated Labour in South as a consequence) - leaving Labour in a minority of MPs in Reekie.
119-Agree with you on the iraq issue benefitting the Liberals & may well do so for a long time to come on the basis that the situation gets worse each day with no end in sight for the conflict.People will also remember that GB gave his full support and was the paymaster for this appalling war.
-The tripling of tuition fees may be a differnt story as it had not yet hit anyone’s pockets at the time of the election as it is effective from September 2006.
Dan - He wouldn’t have won in 2005. How many other Tory candidates overtuned majorities of 7,000? The most solid part of the Tory ‘rock’ was taken away (Fairmilehead) as was South Morningside and they were replaced by 4 Labour wards. Think you may be wrong about South going Labour in 1966, pretty sure we held it continouslly up untill 1987.
118: It’s a mistake to think “students=fees+Iraq”. I spoke to 500 or so students at Nottingham U in a debate with Ken Clarke and a LibDem MEP, Bill Newton-Dunn during the election. Tuition fees were IIRC only mentioned once, and Iraq only a bit more. Clarke majored on the economy, N-C concentrated on economic and personal freedom (a very Tory speech, I thought, but he is an ex-Tory), and I focused on trade and development. Questions were all over the spectrum of issues.
In my experience, students aren’t all that worried by the prospect of having to pay £5/week once they start earning £300/week (as the income rises they pay more, but it’s still a small proportion), and students are often annoyed by the assumption that they are obsessively interested in this - it’s like meeting a black voter and only talking about racial discrimination, when actually he’s interested in manufacturing policy or the availability of dentists. Where the policy was changing some votes was among parents, partly because they hadn’t realised the fees were deferred and tought they were going to have to find it up-front. I have lots of students and lecturers in Broxtowe (we’re a stone’s throw from Nottingham University’s main campus), but the LibDem vote only rose 1%, and that modest rise was in my opinion almost entirely due to Iraq - the Stop the War Coalition targeted me and the other local marginal Labour MP, Vernon Coaker (to even less effect in Vernon’s case).
I suspect the impact of the issues is stronger in the constituencies like Cambridge where the electorate is dominated by students - there is then a snowball effect and students are more inclined to think as a collective group.
121 - Rubbish I’m afraid. If the Liberals couldn’t win more seats than they did last time when the legal advice was leaked/British troops still dying/post-Hutton etc. they certainly won’t in 4 years. Firstly I doubt many British troops will be there in 4 years, second people won’t blame Gordon Brown - it’s Blair’s war in most voters eyes. Lastly, most voters couldn’t give a toss about Iraq - as proved by the most recent general election result. The Liberals are deluding themselves if they think they are going to win any more Labour seats on the back of the Iraq war in four or five years time.
123- The logic of what you are saying is that the LibDems have yet to benefit very much from their stance on Tuitition Fees. There thus remains the possibility that this will really start to bite with this part of the electorate when the bills start coming in as John says (121).
Can’t see how the financial equivalent to less than a packet of 20 fags a week is going to lead to the downfall of the Labour govt in 4 years time so how.
126 - You may be right but some people object to being in debt and are upset by the knowledge that there is a wacking great sum debited to them.
£5 a week is £250 per year. Surely anybody who just pays £5 a week won’t even keep up with the interest? I confess my total ignorance of the ins and outs of this as at my age I am in the position of never needing to know about this personally.
[127] I seem to remember that if a student loan isn’t paid off after a number of years (? 20) it’s cancelled. You can go to Art College and starve in a garret afterwards under the new system as easily as you could under the old
The interest rate is linked to inflation as well I think. My girlfirend pays about £50 a month on an income of about £20k. Although I think a reform of the structure is needed i.e variable for course, tuition fees are here to stay. I believe Tory opposition will cease.
128,129 - There is a Thresehold of £15,000 below which you pay nothing (the interest just keeps accrueing). You pay 9% of earnings above this amount. The interest accrues at inflation (roughly… I think the last letter I had stated about 3%). I think that it only gets cancelled when you reach national pension age. (and if you can go that long without paying it back I’m impressed!)
Well I shall shortly see if Kinkell will have to pay tuition fees after his gap year !! As he’s travelling back from the States today with Emily and Mrs Jack W I have the honour of picking up the results at 11 AM . Although he’ll open the envelope early this evening !!
Spread betting on it is 15-17 on 4 subjects with an A=5 and E=1
I’ve been selling until several months ago but have this worrying feeling that the little bug*er is about to shaft me …. and a rather large loss of the automotive wallet emptying variety is coming my way !!!!!!!
131 - good luck to Kinkell. I am sure he will get a top grade in Creative Writing, though there may be question marks over whether his coursework was truly a solo effort…
131 - Good luck to him - personally I’d buy up to 18.5 but have no insider knowledge. Always nerve-wracking though…
111 - Jack you are right about Highland Park and Scapa! This means that I won a bottle of the stuff from a local Oddbins for giving an incorrect answer. Ho Hum.
135 - sorry premature button pushing .
Iraq may or may not be an issue in 4 years time but the debts that students are leaving college with will be amongst a growing number of the electorate and these young people are not going to forgive Nulab on this issue .
Here is Scotland we don’t have tuition fees.
We instead have a ‘graduate endowment liability’ which means you, err…, pay your fees after completing the course. This was introduced by the Executive and enthusiastically supported by coalition partners, the Lib Dems.
It’s not often I quote Mr Blunkett but here he is talking about this scheme:
‘it is difficult to see how anyone in Scotland has gained, with 40 per cent of students not paying fees in the first place and now having the non-fee deferred so that they have to pay after they have left university’
138 - Yes the Graduate Endowmment Liability could be said to be Tuition Fees under another name but the amount to be paid is much less and there are a greater number of people exempted from paying anything .
139 - Your comments on some people’s attitude to debt is true . It is not uncommon though for students to graduate with total debts of £ 10,000 or more and it is disingenous to say that repayment of tuition fees need only be £5 per week and ignore the full picture .
124-Mr Palmer,How much has the Iraq war cost the taxpayer since the invasion in March 2003?
140 - Very true that it is disingenious to state that. However, remove tuition fees and you only remove a small piece of that debt (£3000). If you’re suggesting that we go back to a grant-based system then I’d like to know where you get the money from, as I don’t really see it being financially viable.
The essential problem as I see it is that too many people go to University (and a vast number go unneccessarily). There are a large number of people that don’t need degrees to do the job that they are doing, and in fact would have been better off with the 3 years working and gaining experiance, rather than gaining debt. I think that a large problem has been the attitude (partly encouraged by Labour) that those that don’t go to Uni are somehow second class citizens and have little value to society, an attitude which is patently wrong and divisive. Personally I think that we should encourage more apprenticeship style schemes for careers, and not have a daft target system of getting ‘50%’ of people to University for no obvious reason. Sorry, I’ll stop ranting now…
133/134 book value/Lennon . Said envelope now safely ensconced safely in Kinkell’s bedroom aka a landfill site ! I think 17.5 - 18.5 might be on the money after a whirlwind performance from the lazy sod since the turn of the year .
135 Stephen. What about the other points of the distillery compass :
Most Southerly : One of the Campbeltown Malts ?? - Glen Scotia or Springbank , not sure ?
Most Westerly : Talisker on Syke or Bruichladdich on Islay ?
Most Easterly : Possibly Lochside near Montrose ? or Glengarioch west of Aberdeen ?
143 - isn’t there a distillery in Dumfries and Galloway somewhere, as a candidate for most southerly?
142 - I totally agree with your comments that Uni has been oversold as the only and essential way to a good job . My daughter has managed quite well to get a decent job despite or perhaps because of her decision not to go onto further education . A grant based system would be viable only if the numbers were dramatically reduced from the 50% target .
144 book value . Shamed by an Englishman !! Bladnoch restarted a limited production in 2000 . Even allowing for Bladnoch the distillery at Girvan is also south of the Campbeltown ones .
http://www.scotchwhisky.net
146 - that’s the one. I was on holiday in the area earlier this year, but didn’t get the chance to visit it.
(I am one quarter Scottish though - my grandad came from Dundee.)
145. The look of horror on teachers faces when I said I wasn’t going to uni was quite unbelievable. Of my friends who went, not one has a job elated to their degree. They have 10K debts though.
147 book value . “I am quarter Scottish though …”
Excellent we Scots continue our pursuit of world domination - editor of pb.com today , tomorrow “The Badger Fanciers Quarterly” !!
BTW dare we wonder which quarter !!
I think Bruichladdich might just be the most westerly on the map (although a pedant could measure whether the Earth’s tilt caused one to be more westerly in terms of sunrise/set times).
I also thought earlier that Tobermory might have been in with a shout before wandering off into flights of fancy in which I wondered what a Balamory Whisky would be like and whether it would ever appear in the children’s TV programme.
148. woody662
I graduated last year. The only people I know who got jobs related to their degrees were those who did technical subjects like architectural technology (including me), building surveying, civil engineering, avionics, or occupational therapy. Those who did business studies, sports studies, tourism studies, drama, etc. are all working in shops.
150 Stephen . By the look of this I suspect there is already a distillery in Balamory :
http://www.screenselect.co.uk/images/products/7/29757-large.jpg
[149] Jack, if you’d been able to get to the party, you’d know!
154 IA . “Jack ,If you’d been able to get to the party, you’d know!”
But in true Buddhist style I was there !
http://www.humourbg.com/Karikaturi/animals/Party_Animal.jpg
155 .Or :
http://www.humorbg.com/Karikaturi/animals/Party_Animal.jpg
142-At the moment tuition fees are £ 1,100 per annum & from September 2006 will triple to £3,000,assuming that the average current student debt on graduation is £ 10,000 (which is very much on the low side,more likely £15/20,000)then this average debt will increase from £10,000 to £ 16,000.
-Agree with you that many young people are being encouraged to pursue worthless degree courses and rack up enormous debts and end up with qualifications that are not valued by potential employers.
Friends of my son’s have been doing Sports Science degrees where they are required to attend University for 4 to 5 hours per week and claim that if the attendance was closer to school type hours 12 months would be adequte time instead of 3 years.
-Golf Course management & Business Studies come immediately to mind as being in the same category.What was previously covered as HND’s / HNC’s on a part time / evening / sandwich course basis at little or no cost to the student are now being strung out to 3 full time years at University.
In the not too distant future students will not only each have 10 GCSE passes,3 A level passes (mostly at grade A) but also a Degree & of course massive debts.Meanwhile the government will no doubt be bragging about how many people now go to University,improved educational standards etc etc.
Max - I think you might be right - it was Aberdeen South that went Labour in 66.
As for the most easterly distillery - I’ll go for Glen Kinchie at Pencaitland (East Lothian).
Was that when Donald Dewar won it?
143 . NEWS FLASH …… Kinkell empties Jack W’s wallet !!!
The little *$**^%”$ has beaten the spread !!! - 19 . I mean 19 …. I’ve demanded a recount , little hope I’m afraid . I regret his majority ……… is a new VW Polo in the garage ……..
He’s looking over my shoulder ……
But the keys are locked in the davenport !! G’nite all ………
131: That’s right, except that any debt that you’ve not been able to pay at the rate quoted gets cancelled after 20 years. Not sure how to respond to Mark Senior’s certainty, except that we’ve been talking to different students. If most students in Broxtowe had voted LibDem, I’d probably be an ex-MP. But moving beyond the anecdotal, I think there are surveys on this, aren’t there? My recollection is that the LibDems were narrowly ahead of Labour among students nationally, with Tories far behind.
161 - Hi Nick , the actual surveys on student voting were in fact very sparse . The Times Higher Education Supplement showed Lib 39 Lab 28 Con 23 if you call 11% narrow a substantial swing from the 2001 GE . You could be correct that there was a bandwagon effect in some constituencies where the Lib Dems were seen as having a chsnce but it is clear that this swing was also true in the 3 Brighton/Hove seats not that fertile Lib Dem ground .
As others have said it is the total debt burden that students leave Uni with that conncerns them most and tuition fees were ( from comments made to me by many students ) the final straw that lost Nulab their votes .
In Exeter our data suggests nearly 50% of students voted LibDem, and try as I might I couldn’t really pretend there was a bandwagon. Maybe next time…
Jack, if you’d been a proper liberal you’d have taught the blighter to value education for its own sake, rather than have to bribe him, and been several thou to the better because of it. Who says Liberals aren’t hard headed when it comes to business?
Alternatively, you can downgrade him by applying the table on this website.
Mark Senior: Thanks for the data - quite convincing, I think. You win the argument!
Having worked at the LSE, Cambridge, Oxford and now York University my theory is that the university communities - which are probably 1.5-2 times larger than the student body - are much more susceptible to tactical voting. People - staff and students - talk about politics much more than most and will influence each other.
Cambridge - which I predicted here in July 2004 would be a Lib Dem gain - is a case in point. It went Labour in 1992 on a big tactical swing and then to the Lib Dems in 2005.
165 - Thank you Nick .
166 - Haven’t you left yet , Mike , Hope Jacky has banned laptops and visits to Internet Cafes . Have a great holiday
167. I’ve still got my mobile phone which has full HTML access.
There’s a good round up on the Tory leadership in the Telegraph this morning with the paper having “polled” a lot of Tory MPs. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;jsessionid=CPIOB0C12F2ZNQFIQMGSM54AVCBQWJVC?xml=/news/2005/08/19/ntory19.xml&sSheet=/portal/2005/08/19/ixportal.html
168 - I found Tony Baldry’s quote quite interesting in that article:
“I do not think Ken now has much resonance with anyone very much under 40. I think there has to be a realistic choice and my vote will be for David Cameron.”
I wrote most of today’s article a couple of days ago but I think this backs it up quite nicely.