Davis still in a commanding lead
October 5th, 2005
Tory leadership: RED Davis, BLACK Clarke, BLUE Cameron, GREEN Fox
-
But will he suffer the favourite’s curse?
For all the media is focusing on Ken Clarke’s speech this morning the big change in our implied probability chart based on best betting prices has been towards the 38 year old Shadow Education Secretary, David Cameron, who is now back to second favourite.
The Shadow Home Secretary goes into his platform speech today with the knowledge that in terms of public declarations he is almost a certainty to be in the final run-off ballot of members.
-
Cameron might by moving forward but the question for him remains - how can he convince enough of his fellow MPs to give their support to someone who only entered the Commons 52 months ago.
How must the Davis camp wish that the MPs ballot was not in secret? The Shadow Home Secretary built up a huge power base in the parliamentary party heading the Maastricht whips office in John Major’s time - but then you could monitor precisely the way people voted. This time the ballot is in private and there must be a risk that some of those who have lined up in public for him might tick a different name on the ballot form.
There’s also the standing rule of Tory leadership contests that the front runner never wins. In 2001 Michael Portillo even came top of the first ballot of MPs but then did not make it to the final.
So still a long way to go for Davis but a good speech today should steady the nerves of his loyal followers and those punters who backed him down to 1/2 and now might be a bit concerned by the current 0.8/1 Betfair price.
Tory leadership betting prices
Conventional bookmakers best price: Davis 8/15: Clarke 10/3: Cameron 4/1: Fox 12/1: Rifkind 50/1 Betfair betting exchange: Davis 0.8/1: Clark 4.6/1: Cameron 3.8/1: Fox 11.5/1: Rifkind 155/1 BinaryBet spread market. Davis 55-63: Clarke 18-24: Cameron 10-16
MessageSpace Advertising
Clarke and Cameron both had excellent days yesterday, putting even more pressure on Davis to perform better than we are accustomed to expecting from him when he speaks today. There have been rumours printed one or two of this morning’s papers (Telegraph and Times I think) that several of DD’s declared parliamentary supporters are rethinking. It would be highly damaging for him at this stage to have that happen. He really does need to raise his game and put in the performance of his career thus far today.
BTW Mike, when can we expect to see the results of that little prediction competition? I thought it was due for publication yesterday. Pity that the site went down again as well. I still think it would be a good idea to slim things down a bit until the Conference is over…
Re 1. I’ll try to put the results up today - I was planning to put them up on Monday and Tuesday evenings when we were down.
My problem at the moment is that my son Robert, who handles the technical side, is in Mexico and is not in a position to take off the processing hungry features like the latest comments column on the top right. We are working on a way of doing that which might be in place today.
1 -mmm…wonder the Telegraph etc. rumours are picking up on the case of the elusive Fabricant?
My name is Michael Fabricant.
The leadership - who says I can’t?
So ditch our Ken, forget the Daves -
I’ll save the party from a watery grave.
Top work Bill. Can you pen one about Sir Malcolm Rifkind?
The move on Cameron prices is interesting because it shows he is rising to the occasion, which is the mark of any true leader. It has certainly made us sit up at the Telegraph. We are in a quandary who to back because the paper’s support can often be critical and we want to use our influence wisely (and not have a repeat of IDS). Davis is clearly a man of substance, but his lack of star quality in comparison to Cameron is reinforced by some of the bullies around him. Perhaps the most interesting thing so far has been the Newsnight poll on Monday which showed Cameron ahead by a mile among voters - swing, Tory and Labour. It was remarkable. I would buy Cameron at this price.
Julian H, I shall oblige you with a reprise from yesterday. Now, everybody:
Malcolm Rifkind: call me Sir
From the chicken run I did twice demur
My accent is wrong but my experience long
I’m the only contender with a gong
6 - George, is it down to Davis and Cameron for the Telegraph’s endorsement, or do Fox and/or Clarke have a chance too?
GT @6. I wonder whether you might be more advised to heed your own YouGov polls on the leadership. Has the Telegraph already resolved that Ken Clarke will not receieve endorsement, or is there still an open mind?
6 - I was quite surprised by the Telegraph’s support for Fox last week. I am a regular reader and would expect the likes of Cameron to be more in-line with the editorial stance.
P.S. Any jobs going at Telegraph HQ?
Bv - Great minds do indeed think alike
11
Are you in Blackpool this week, John, or remaining in sunny Surrey?
I think the secret ballot issue could be critical. If the Davis ‘bullies’ have gained less than enthusiastic endorsements from MPs, how many will ‘defect’ once inside the booth? I think there could be a few and if he loses momentum on the first ballot…..? That said of course he may well have more than the 64 declared backers (some being undeclared), but does anyone sense any enthusiasm for Davis? I certainly don’t.
Alas, sunny Surrey (grr)
…someone’s got to keep working the patch!
13 - perhaps that nice Mr Conway can look after some postal votes.
Davis is going to have to do pretty well on the main stage in order to appear continue appearing comfortably in front. It’s become a much more interesting race now the conference has started.
One point that occurs to me is that there are undoubtedly Tory MPs who have privately decided that this is their last Parliament, and such MPs, irrespective of Party, are notorious for not behaving in their Party’s best interest. Presumably one of their numver is Michael Howard himself. He’s certainly (and on a personal level who can blame him) done his Party no favours by calling the election now, when next year people would have had more time to digest its meaning and MPs to get to know each other.
A bit early to say I know, but I wonder how the Conference and contest is playing out with the wider public. After three impressive speeches from Rifkind, Cameron and Clarke, and thus far little personal rancour, I have a feeling that the week in Blackpool will do the party no harm. Famous last words…
Just heard three new tory mps on the to-day programme. Anne Milton (undecided) the most thoughtful but generally a bit depressing if you’re a Clarke supporter.
It seems the newly elected MPs resent Clarke because he’s never spoken to them and never helped with their footslogging. Well.. er..do they want a leader whos going to win?
Another MP has declared for DC according to the Herald. David Mundell, the sole Scottish Tory MP and of course my local MP for DC&T.
IA@16. I wrote 17 before reading your comments. But albeit in an obviously a cackhanded way, the end result may well be that MH will have done the party a favour by his announcement.
Simon Jenkins on the leadership rules (although where he got the idea that Clarke supporters voted tactically for IDS supporters in 2001 i don’t know ;-))
16 - Who do you think that those MPs will be voting for, then? Will they just vote for the candidate they like the most rather than one who has any real chance of winning?
16 - I’m afraid I find this post a little thin. How many Tory MPs are expected to step down at the next election? Furthermore, as stated in post 22, who would they be likely to vote for, and how would this affect the vote?
I would have thought any MP whi has declared for DD to now declare for another candidate would have to be pretty certain that DD was going to loose - or is byebye to any hope of a job. Im stil an undecided, see no star quality in DD and think he was invisible whilst party chairman. Clarke’s speach was high on rhetoric and getting ut and winnng etc, but I know many locally (Notts) who respent his lack of actually going out and campaigning for the Party for the past 4 years. DC seems to have fresh ideas. Watched Osborne’s speach last night, content was excellent - if he is going to work closely with DC that could do it for me - although I still have a strong liking for Fox.
Perhaps Fabricant still supports DD but his independent hair resented the competition…
17 - I tend to agree John O - famous last words! I got a feeling David Davis will deliver the speech of his life and prove us all wrong.
26 - In his Times interview he said that he’s a bit lazy and never practices his speeches. I guess if he’s worked a bit harder at this one then he might see some improvement. Maybe that’s why he’s been “invisible” (AHM).
24: MPs like Michael Fabricant don’t expect to get jobs for being loyal but they might get one for ratting to the winner!
You are either a star or you are not a star. You cannot become one through practice. There is one saving grace for DD today - he is on before lunch. If he had been allocated the afternoon slot there could well have been delegates having a little snooze.
I don’t know Countryman. George Bush managed to put together some pretty decent speeches with a good speechwriter and LOTS of practice.
“some improvement” would hardly make him a “star” anyway
[22][23] Such MPs might vote as Grayson suggests, or to settle an old score - I don’t mean to suggest that more than a handful would be irresponsible, but Portillo came third by one vote last time! Alex, thankyou for the link which makes a similar (& much better expressed) argument.
As to whether the Tories are having a good conference, they’re certainly providing much the best entertainment of the three, but no one can yet say whether it’s any more than that…
I’ve found Clarke’s bid to be pretty arrogant myself. Who is he to say that he’s the only big beast in the jungle etc. For that seems to be the only reason he’s using for people to vote for him. If he’s such a big hitter where’s he been hiding for the last 8 years.
I’m not and never will be a Tory but I can’t help but say that Cameron was impressive yesterday.
Does anybody know what time David Davis is on?
[32] Certainly the way a lot of people see it. Interesting that the closer people are to KC the lower the level of support he has…
DD is on at 11:30, I believe.
Got to admit - Cameron was impressive. He’s won some accolades from the papers as well.
Managed to hear most of Clarke yesterday - he sounds like a PM - but god knows what he would actually do if he got there (not sure that Ken knows what to do either, but the task for him is to win not to govern. DD awful on the Today prog. what do the MPs who are on his web site as supporters see in him?
Please, please, Tories vote for DD - IDS with hair.
They had clips of Julie Kirkbride on BBC Breakfast this morning bigging up DD, saying how he is impressive on radio and tv etc. I was wondering how Jules could see it so differently from me.
What’s this about Fabricant then? I don’t read the right wing press so haven’t heard a whisper about him - are there rumours he’s running for leader?
“the country must change, not the party”
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/conservatives2005/story/0,16395,1585103,00.html
Liam Fox was a Bennite activist in the 80’s and I claim my five pounds.
Any Conservative MP who has a future to value might think twice about reneging on DD: his team have a good intelligence service, and long memories. Even though DD’s media limitations are becoming more and more apparent, to seriously fall back, his campaign in the parliamentary party has to lose steam, and that seems unlikely to me. However, Cameron’s good showing does uncover big dangers. A situation where you have a Davis-Cameron final two, and Clarke endorses Cameron, is most dangerous.
I don’t think Clarke will endorse Cameron.
41 - No I don’t either. If it comes down to a Clarke/Davis run off, I would hope that Cameron backs Clarke.
On the surface, it looks unlikely, but I still think it might be a possibility, though it might look too much like Clarke-Redwood for some people’s taste.
Re 30 Apparantly this is how is done http://y.wimp.com/v/presidential.wmv
40….but they don’t have to publically renege on Davis. A secret ballot result with Davis only scoring 50ish MPs will be fatal for him. I’m convinced that he will poll less than predicted as some ‘arm twisted’ MPs who don’t care much for his manner decide to go for another candidate.
Cameron is less likely to endorse Clarke than he is Davis, I think - although a Clarke victory would be better for his future prospects than a Davis one.
There is no way Cameron will back Clarke, Cameron is someone with a lot of ambition (only someone blinded by ambition like he is would contemplate such a premature bid for leadership!) and he will make a shrewd judgement as to who it is most dangerous to NOT back. That person must be Davis. Davis will be around longer even if Clarke wins - and I suspect Clarke will be less interested in pursuing vendettas against those that cross him.
47 - I think that is exactly right, and a lot of DC’s supporters would do the same too.
“40….but they don’t have to publically renege on Davis.”
Very true, but he and his close ocnfederates are not ex-Whips for nothing. It is possible to identify waverers, by noble and underhand measures, and guess with some degree of accuracy who the backsliders would be.
Clarke has no reason to endorse anyone (he won’t be looking for a job), although i don’t think he would back Cameron anyway. I also think that Cameron has no reason to endorse anybody - the next leader will have to put him in a pretty prominent role after his performances this week. The big danger for him (were he not to become leader) is to avoid getting a reputation as a plotter in the future.
If Davis lost in his bid his “thug and intelligence” network would still be intact and that would make him very powerful. It was this network, largely, which brought IDS down in 2003 and could undermine a Cameron or KC leadership.
47 - that argument falters if Cameron thinks that his endorsement would secure Clarke’s victory. Obviously all things being equal (and assuming he doesn’t believe that Clarke would be a disaster) he would prefer Clarke to be leader - Davis could be leader for another ten years+ if he makes progress at the next election, Clarke won’t.
“The big danger for him (were he not to become leader) is to avoid getting a reputation as a plotter in the future”.
Fair enough as far as Cameron is concerned. If he doesn’t win, he, Osborne, and the Notting Hill set will be in much the same position as Blair/Brown were under Smith; but this time everyone will remember the sequel.
51 - are you sure? I thought it was the Maude and Notting Hill factions that were credited with doing for IDS.
54 - both factions played a hand. Conway publicly sent his letter of no conficdence to Sir Michael Spicer.
19. Now DC has 19 declared backers: one more than Clarke.
55 - what the hell. I think it would be unfair to deny any faction the credit. Even the IDS faction
Some useful stuff on the site explaining how DD has built support among MPs. Still struggling to see him as odds-on favourite, though, Can any seasoned observers suggest how early into his speech we will be able to see if he rises to the opportunity or flops?
On Conservativehome.com 2 MPs have been deleted from the list of Davis backers: Fabricant (as removed from Davis website) and also Peter Viggers who the site says was “originally posted in error”.
So Davis is down from 66 to 64.
Cameron has gained 3 new backers to take him up to 19. These are Peter Atkinson, David Mundell amd Theresa Villiers.
So new standings are Davis 64, Cameron 19, Clarke 18, Fox 10, Rifkind 5.
59 - Mike. Davis has 65 - there’s one other on his site which Conhome haven’t got.
Clearly, the tories have to choose somebody who both reflects their views, and can win an election.
There is one other chacteristic that I think is important, which has been given zero weight.
Were there to be a hung parliament after the next election, which candidate would be most adept at representing tory interests? This is not an unlikely scenario, and experience of government must be an asset. For all his ideas, intellect and charm, DC might not be the best man then. Could this help KC or DD, both of whom ‘know their way round’?
59. David Cameron got the endorsment of Derek Laud from Big Brother. Does it count somehow?
Edwina Currie said that Cameron is “Too nice to be a Tory” (she’s always able to represent the tory party in a good light!)
62 - I suppose it counts a little bit, but Makosi’s endorsement would probably get more coverage.
63. Is Makosi another Big Brother’s contestant?
64 - yeah, she’s the one the nation loves to hate. (Though personally I don’t mind her: at least she’s honest about being manipulative - a sort of Big Brother Derek Conway.)
Re. 13, indeed, I’m reminded of the old Italian Christian Democrat reminder to voters that in the polling booth ‘God can see you but Stalin cannot’.
Re. 17, in one way the speeches by Cameron and Clarke put great pressure on Davis, but given his reputation for bad speeches, maybe even a half-decent one will allow people to say that he’s made the speech of his life. Or then again, maybe he’ll follow Reginald Maudling’s example in 63, and blow it.
61 - that’s a good point. Whoever wins the leadership can give up on thinking about winning the election (no 11% lead happening here), but forcing a hung parliament is possible. In such a scenario, you’d have to think Davis would be as screwed as the Tories are by FPTP. Not sure about Cameron, seems genial enough. Ken would probably score best on this score though, if nothing else because he seems the most desperate to get any sort of power, having tried so often…
65. Book Value, I thought you don’t have TV. How are you able to see BB?
68 - I watched the final at a friend’s house. (Not that I had gone round specially to do so, I promise!)
69. It’s always the same old excuse people use to justify they watch “trash TV”
66 Richard O. DD has a big task ahead of him. After the media and delegate plaudits for our Ken and DC today he’s got to do at least as well.
BBC just reporting that support for DD amongst Tory MPs is “ebbing away” and that his team is worried.
If some DD backers publicly fall away he’s in trouble.
69 - BV had gone round to watch Newsnight followed by the BBC Parliamentary Channel.
Davis just started speech. Watching it via weblink he is not exactly riveting……
DD Speech : His cadence is better than usual, but it lacks passion at the moment. Even his soundbites lack animation, the more so as he’s talking red meat Tory issues of crime and punishment.
There’s nothing much for the Tories in a hung parliament. Even if the LDs start negotiating with them, they’d probably only trying a bluff to cover themselves and frighten Labour into deal, and it would be hugely difficult trying to keep backbench Tories onside in any normal coalition. They’d be better advised to remain adamantine (apart from, perhaps, the Unionists) unless it was clear that the only alternative to some sort of coalition was chaos.
Andrea. Just had a shot of Hunky in the hall looking very glum at DD speech !!
72 - exactly, but then for some reason all the channels were broken except Channel 4, and the TV set wouldn’t switch off, and I felt very weak in the legs and couldn’t go into another room.
Davis is such a clown and his speech so far is terrible. He just made a jibe at a Labour policy on crime and said “it might have sounded alright in Islington …” and then made a reference to policies having to work in our “deprived inner cities”. EXCUSE ME - Islington is one of the most deprived boroughs in this country, with the highest crime rates - I live there and see deprivation around me. I have a lot more time for the New Labour types who live in posh houses next to council estates in my area than I do for people who live in posh houses in K&C and Fulham etc to escape the urban poor!
DD may well have blown it.. the attention over the past two days has all been elsewhere. If DD is bleeding support from MPs life suddenly gets a lot more interesting for the non-Ken Clarke candidates. KC vs DC looks like a much more interesting bet now… Who’d a thunk it?
Re: 75 - We’ve had this debate before and we’ll no doubt have it again before the election. No one on any side is going to publically talk up coalitions, hung Parliaments, deals or anything like it BUT, and I emphasise this, that doesn’t mean people shouldn’t consider the possibility.
Can I see Cameron talking to Kennedy ? Yes - far more than I can envisage either Davis or Clarke doing the same thing. He won’t say that but I can see it. Is it Blair/Ashdown Mark 2 ?
[77] BV, take a leaf out of a mate of mine’s book, and claim to watch Big Brother as homework for your social anthropology evening class
“New Labour types who live in posh houses next to council estates in my area than I do for people who live in posh houses in K&C and Fulham etc to escape the urban poor!”
You have quite a few council estates, cheek by jowl, in K&C and Fulham as you do in Islington.
The delegates seemed to waiting for the “DD moment”. Lift off for this speech. I’m not sure it’s coming. Good joke about GB …. but so far this speech lacks bite and direction.
“They’d be better advised to remain adamantine … unless it was clear that the only alternative to some sort of coalition was chaos.”
What is the alternative was another generation in the wilderness? The fact that for a measly majority of two, they would need a national lead of 11.7%, (a larger margin than they had as the governing party in 1979 and 1987) will, presumably hit home one day…
This speech really is bad compared to what we had yesterday - most of all its just unconvincing and sounds like something he could just as well have said in the dark days of IDS. Just going through the motions.
The delegates seemed to waiting for the “DD moment”. Lift off for this speech. I’m not sure it’s coming. Good joke about GB …. but so far this speech lacks bite and direction.
I think Icarus has a point - DD really is IDS (with?)hair judging by that speech.
83 - “Good joke about GB”. No. It wasn’t. It was petty and childish, and I think comes across very very badly to the public who like Gordon Brown more than they like David Davis (at this precise moment in time).
Wow was that it. A desperately inadequate speech from DD. This poor performance will put the cat among the big beasts. All to play for me thinks.
83/88. What joke did he make about Gordon?
Davis speech really was not good at all. At the end he acted like the leader of the opposition or the PM (all hand waving, moving into the crowd and hand shaking). Did DC and KC do this yesterday? It was faintly embarressing. The Tories would be absolutely barmy to go for this guy!
84. As I understand it that was what was required in May. The swing now required is about 8-8.5% on UNS. Not far off what Maggie got in 1979. A big target, but a far smaller mountain to climb than the one than they faced in May.
I haven’t seen DD’s speech so I can’t comment. I would imagine he had a huge ovation.
Oh dear, as a Labour supporter who wanted to see DD (or DC) as leader, I think he’s blown it. I’m reminded of Edward Pearce’s description of Maudling in 63, ‘Plywood with the gift of speech’.
“What is the alternative was another generation in the wilderness?”
Even then, it would be a step too far. It’s true that the lure of power can work wonders, but there is simply too little common ground between the two parties, whereas Labour and the LDs can ultimately find common ground in a coalition, even if they had to be forced into it first. Maintaining such a coalition might end up making Maastricht looking uncotroversial. I’ve no doubt that if it still looks like a hung parliament in three years’ time (and that’s a big if) the Tories and LDs might explore some possibilities about co-operation, but going further than that would be a horrendous mistake on both sides.
Should Davis be the favourite at all any more?
Sure he’s in the final but Cameron and Clarke will be certain to beat him in the members vote. He would maybe have a chance against Fox but even against Fox I reckon it would still only be 50:50.
All this talk of Big Beasts makes me think of the Ronnie Barker line (taken from the Sky News site):
“And now a sketch, featuring Mr Ronnie Corbett, whose wife tries not to bring out the beast in him, because she’s afraid of mice”
94. Richard, do you want DD as leader becuase you consider him a “weak” leader or becuase you like him?
88 Stonch. Humour is in the chuckle muscles of the hearer !!
The spin is on about the DD “speech” Even IDS seems sym(pathetic) towards DD, how that must hurt. This weak speech will damage DD badly, as its poor comparison resonates with delegates, the media and the wider public.
At last a real Tory! David Davis is the man. Cometh the hour etc……
Hearing Mr Cameron distance himself from the manifesto he wrote is something to behold. Clark to take over from Charlie Kennedy and Davis to lead the Tories. ….And Brown to be PM in 2009. What odds would I get on that treble I wonder?
I started off as someone who believed that Davis just might be a very effective leader (as Portillo had written in his column a few months ago). Unfortunately I think he’s well on the way to proving that he hasn’t got what it takes. Ken Clarke is the strongest candidate at the moment, but the contest has served the purpose of raising Cameron’s profile. He’ll be very effective in the Shadow Cabinet under Clarke.
Delegates across the news channels saying DD has “blown it”. If this impression gathers ground DD will have the devils own job to retain his position as favourite.
92 - a 7.3% swing (assuming helpful collateral), and an 11.7% lead in the vote… (figures from ‘The Conservatives and the electoral system’)
There seems to be huge movement against Davis on Betfair.
I haven’t seen it, but this sounds bad for DD - the comparison to make with 1963 might be Butler’s uninspiring speech to the Conference. But will this change MPs minds?
95 - I don’t think there’s much danger of an actual coalition - not because of the MPs, but the supporters - there’d be a collective coronary on both sides.
Might be a few more subtle deals though…
104 Matt. DD is now at at 1.08/1 on bet fair !!!!!!!!
Oh dear, looks like it’s fallen to pieces for DD.
I always liked the idea of DC as Leader supported by Osborne/Gove/Vaizey/Boris. This will see me lose about £70 on that spread-bet though. Third time lucky for KC?
99 - “Stonch. Humour is in the chuckle muscles of the hearer !!”
Agreed Jack W - problem is, the hearers are not just Tory faithful, but the electorate who he will need to woo if he wins! But looks like he won’t win now so its OK.
107. Jack, if Betfair exchanges are to be believed, your Ken won’t even reach the final stage.
107/110. Now, 1.12|1 for DD, 3.5/1 for Cameron and 3.6/1 for Ken
Betfair going rapidly against DD - just had a bet on DD, DC and KC that was profitable at the odds given if any of them wins!
105 - Exactly right of course. I wouldn’t want to overstate this point but the returning activists (often senior members of their Conservative Associations) may well start lobbying their MPs to consider the new environment and vote accordingly. There will be no attempts at ‘mandation’ or anything heavy-handed (and besides the vote is secret!) but the mood percolating upwards from the grassroots - er, that doesn’t sound right, does it
- may well be a factor in the next few weeks.
110 Andrea. Betfair provide some interesting mood music, but I’m very happy that DD has shown himself not upto the job. It’ll provide some interesting thinking for his declared backers and the undecided in the coming days and weeks.
BTW Hunky needed a box to stand on for his speech, otherwise he couldn’t see the delegates over the lectern
Can we open a market on how long it takes for Wat Tyler to appear on here?
115 - Wat is in Blackpool.
Not even the Tories are going to choose their leader on one speech….surely? Doesn’t their history in the party count for anything. If one bad speech makes someone history then it’s no wonder that Big Brother gets more voters than the Tories.
115. Julian, and a market about what he’ll say.
114. Jack, I think I need to review my special ranking to improve my social status
Didnt see the DD suicide speech (if you are to be believed) - will he have to play the Europe card to rescue things?
If so will the Tories split down the middle??
DD graph on Betfair must be seen to be believed! Have punters over reacted - how bad was he?
120 - Not BAD as in awful, but significantly poorer than Rifkind, Clarke, and Cameron. He can try the Europe card, but it won’t work, and no, the party won’t split down the middle
.
DD is by no means out yet, but unquestionably the race has tightened, and that, as they say, is a good thing.
Davis has damaged himself with that piss-poor speech. Just put money on Fox at 14/1 for a trading bet. He’ll pick up right-wing support from Davis - so long as he does not mess up his speech as well.
Not a great speech by DD at all. Now bracing myself for Foxy this afternoon.
Wonder how things could turn out now. If the US-style Christian right didn’t put up there own man and instead backed neo-con Fox, you could imagine a scenario where enough Davis support moves to Fox and he gets through to the second round with Cameron/Clarke. Then a Fox victory would be possible and everyone who wants to see the end of the Tory party (not me, though I don’t vote for them and can’t see myself doing so) would be very happy. Because Fox is the most dangerous man running.
121/122- If Fox doesn’t mess up everything this afternoon, he could make the final two. Many MPs on the right are still undeclared.
117 Roger. In isolation DD’s speech was run of the mill, in the context of a Tory beauty contest it was a massive flop. All the reports I’m hearing is that DD’s people are in huge damage limitation mode having witnessed and then heard the hall and media reaction to it.
It’s difficult to overestimate the hole that DD now finds himself. The media will run this as a bad performance and DD’s people will have to run to stand still at best. If delegates and MP’s peel away he will be seriously damaged, even if he remains front runner.
Why is Fox so dangerous? Are you saying he has the heart and stomach of a feeble woman?
In itself not being able to make a good speech should not rule DD or anyone else for that matter out of leading his party provided he has other personal attributes that make up for that but I regret that in DD’s case I cannot see what they are either .
“Why is Fox so dangerous? Are you saying he has the heart and stomach of a feeble woman?”
Well…I can give my opinion to answer your first question but your second one baffles me Colin… whatchoo talkin about?
I think he is dangrous because he represents a kind of conservatism that the majority of people find totally offensive - he seems to be a “conservative” in the American mould. He professes to stand for the kind of bible belt politics that repulses me and everyone I know apart from a few hypocritical religious nutters.
Davis really needs some advice in delivering speeches. His main problem is he let’s his voice drop off at the end of sentences and at times it is more a mumble. He never builds his points to a climax. He needs to find some more passion and fire in his performance and put it into his speech patterns. It is a thing that would be easy to fix, but would transform his image.
100 - Roger,
- KC, desperate to be PM at any price, defects to the LDs? What on earth would Rushcliffe Lib Dems make of that, I wonder …
124 - Yes, I agree. Despite the fact that I’m backing Foxy, in all honesty I think most people can see that DD *really* blew it this afternoon. Cameron was much* better than him yesterday. If Foxy has a good speech we could see a rally for him over the next few days.
130 - KC is not a LibDem. Just because he isn’t VERY right wing, VERY Eurosceptic and didn’t support the attack on Iraq does not mean he is a LibDem. The LibDems are a progressive, currently rather statist party that does not believe in lower taxes.
129-” His main problem is he let’s his voice drop off at the end of sentences and at times it is more a mumble.”
Sometimes I find difficult to underdstand what he’s saying (but the reason could very well be my English skills)
130. He’s desperate to become PM, not to stay in the opposition benches for the rest of his life sitting near to George Galloway!
128 - DD’s invocation of the llth Commandment -’Thou shalt not speak ill of a fellow Tory’ - preculdes any comment on my part about Dr. Fox (trot off to weep
)
A lot of ill-informed comment here from people who are not Conservative supporters.
I would refer them to the summary on the Conservative Leadership blog which states:
“For core conservatives, however, the speech offered a great deal of reassurance. He said that immigrants must subscribe to British values and speak English. He condemned the failure of Labour’s electronic tagging scheme and urged greater use of imprisonment. He attacked Labour’s policy on cannabis and lax licensing laws. He promised to support stronger family life. He promised vigilance against the constant drive of the Brussels bureaucracy towards ‘ever closer union’.”
This is exactly where we should be going. Dr Fox aside, which other candidate would robustly sign up to these core Conservative values?
“A lot of ill-informed comment here from people who are not Conservative supporters.”
Where do I start, Iron Lady?
OK - for starters that’s a slightly rude thing to say in a civilised conversation, which this is.
Secondly and far more importantly - just because people here are not all Conservative supporters does not mean their comments are worthless. On the contrary, it means they are vital - the Tories need to win over people who aren’t Conservative supporters in order to win the next election. I would have thought that was obvious. Don’t you understand this?
BBC Political Editor Nick Robinson says “Tory activists and the Tory press distinctly unimpressed” by DD.
Other media outlets reaction the same. DD in trouble today. Long way still to go though.
135-” He said that immigrants must subscribe to British values ”
and who decide which are the true British values?
Price action on DD is terrible… not buried but I think DC is about equal likelihood now.
Price action on DD is terrible… not buried but I think DC is about equal likelihood now.
Great developments today for an ‘anyone-but-Davis’ supporter like myself.
The field has opened up dramatically to the extent that other candidates now have a lot to play for - will Ancram yet announce his intention to stand?
It might even be worth Edward Leigh’s while having a go now, for the purposes of subsequent dealmaking, as there are plenty of wavering ‘Christian Right’ MPs who won’t have been impressed by Davis’ IDS-style softening.
Price action on DD is terrible… not buried but I think DC is about equal likelihood now.
132 Stonch
KC is not a LibDem. Just because he isn’t VERY right wing, VERY Eurosceptic and didn’t support the attack on Iraq does not mean he is a LibDem. The LibDems are a progressive, currently rather statist party that does not believe in lower taxes.
Well, that’s an interesting definition of “not very eurosceptic”!
Despite your rather inaccurate characature of the party, KC’s positions are far closer to many Lib Dems than they are to a large chunk of his own party, iraq being the most obvious. If you care to take a look at the aims of the TRG, of which he is president, I see far greater resonances with Liberal thinking than I do with the Tories’ 2005 manifesto.
That Said [tm], I don’t see Clarke defecting because at 65 or whatever he’s probably too old to change his ways.
138 - and who decide which are the true British values?
David Blunkett?
143 - What do you think KC’s support for ID cards is going to do to that whole debate?
I agree with Nick Robinson - Davis’s speech was rubbish.
145 - alex, when KC’s had time to look into it in more depth he’ll reconsider his position, I’m sure
143 - “I don’t see Clarke defecting because at 65 or whatever he’s probably too old to change his ways.”
Age didn’t stop Brian Sedgemore though…
yes, but not even his next-door neighbours knew who he was, KC is a bit more high-profile… not that he’ll defect, of course.
126 - I have to say that comparing Fox to Elizabeth I seems like a bit of a stretch, even from his backers.
What monarch are the others most like?
Ken Clarke - jolly, rotund Henry VIII
David Cameron - promising youngster Henry V
David Davis - from the spread of opinions here, anywhere between Richard III and King Arthur, according to taste
Malcolm Rifkind - Richard I; fondly remembered but has been away too long
Tabman@143 - There is sufficient truth in what you say to sustain the conviction of many Tories that Clarke is by far the best placed to woo back many current LibDem voters. I can’t believe (can I ;)?) that you belong to that wing of the LibDems who purportedly actually wish us to elect the Big Brawny Beast.
But, perhaps a thousand orange lemmings can’t be wrong… :P: Oops, there goes another one
149 - when I met him on the hustings in May I did ask him when he was going to accept the inevitable and come over to us - his reply was very non-committal, involving him recalling he’d been asked the same question by Bill Newton-Dunn the previous evening, which surprised me as I was expecting an unequivocal “Never.”
Did anyone catch Robert Shrimsley in Yesterday’s FT?
“Conservatives gathered in Blackpool yesterday to hear their ninth annual “change or die” speech. If there is one thing Tories know by now, it is that they must change or die.
In the nine years since this speech was first delivered many of them have, indeed, died; and a large number of the survivors have yet to come down decisively against death. What is more, an entire faction of the parliamentary party- the hardline Cornerstone group- is so worried that the members may choose life that they have formed a a group expressly to ensure the death option gets a fair hearing. They may even field a candidate- The Marquess of Lothian has been mentioned.
It is not as if the party has not tried to change over those nine years. It has changed address. It has changed its leader (is it four tims now?). It has dabbled with kitchen table conservatism, compassionate conservatism, quiet conservatism and shouty conservatism.
Yesterday it fell to Francis Maude, the pioneer of the tie-less look (or collarbone conservatism) to give the Theresa May “we’re still crap” lecture.
Delegates dutifully applauded but there was no wild cheering or stamping of Zimmers. An attempt to engineer a standing ovation was aborted midway through as large numbers refused to rise. Perhaps they had been bludgeoned into submision by years of hearing this speech; perhaps they find it hard to get up.
Or perhaps they were confused about which change they were meant to embrace. Should they change their lingering antipahy to the European Union or Kenneth Clarke? Should they break with the run of state-educated oiks and return to the playing fields of Eton wih David Cameron?
In his speech, Mr. Maude warned members that the Tories too often look like people who wish immigrants had not come to Britain, like people who don’t like comtemporary Britain and who look like marriage is the only acceptable relationship.
But thi is to miss the point. The Conservatives have failed not because they look like that, but because deep down many of them are like that. The Tories do not need to change how they look. They need to change the way they are. All of which makes electioneering a bit tricky, since these people will decide the outcome.”
Classic!
151 - KC is but one among the many. You might elect him as leader, but will the party follow him in the direction he wishes to go in? I have one word to say to you: Cornerstone.
See DD price on Betfair is easing back towards evens. Cannot think why EXCEPT that a journalist from, IIRC, the Torygraph has his running total at about 80 MPs. That’s quite a lot even if a handful peel off. I do sense that Tory members might go for KC or DC ’cause winning is now more important to them than policy - as long as they have the backing of a large number of MPs. Otherwise the ‘win’ candidate doesn’t really start in a position from which to win. At the moment neither KC nor DC seem able to get close to that number…partly ’cause they both did well so are still level pegging.
Cameron is going to win. I’m sure AHM will be back on board soon
What is all this Cornerstone stuff? If they were to take hold, what would happen in our politics? As far as I can see, for the good of the country the LibDems would have to transform back into an old-style centre-right party. Otherwise we’d just have a situation where for the forseeable future Labour ruled unchallenged with a solid majority and two opposition parties of roughly equal strength.
154 - Edward Leigh
blocking Ken ??!! Oh Tabbers, Tabbers, Tabbers… BV - lend the olde thinge a helping hand 
157 Stonch, what an intriguing idea! Take a look at this.
“Stonch” – what you seem to misunderstand is that this is the Conservative (the clues are there) leadership contest and it is decided upon by Conservatives.
It is not decided upon by the motley assortment of Trotskyites and wishy-washy Liberals that inhabit the media (and large parts of this site).
Perhaps you are missing the fact that many of those who frequent the comments section of this site are our political enemies. They would be very keen for us to elect some dinosaur like Kenneth Clarke – and then watch from the sidelines as the Party tears itself apart. If I wanted Peter Mandelson’s opinion on the Conservative leadership I’d ring him up directly.
“BBC Political Editor Nick Robinson says …”
Robinson has always been a wet with an agenda. Was the same in his student days, nothing changes.
158 - John O, Ken is a socially liberal europhile. The Conservative party is … ? Ergo: they won’t go where he wants them to.
159 Tabbers - thanks, very interesting. I am aware of this, and I have listened to Cable et al. I just think that the LibDems have genuinely changed - the Social Democrat wing is stronger.
Tabman, Gulp. Having just digested Iron Lady’s magnificent eruption, I take it all back.
162 - Stonch, the Statist wing make the most noise (and send the most delegates to conference), but the most coherent grouping within the MPs are those associated with Cable, Clegg etc. Ultimately, the party membership is far more pragmatic than the activists - so watch this space …
163
I’ve previously said a few positive things here about DD. (I’m not a Tory, I switched from Lab to Lib for 2005). Thinking about it some more, I think I’ve realised that what I liked about him were things that I want from a leader of the opposition (I don’t like ID cards, some of this anti-terror stuff, etc), not an actual PM. (Didn’t much care for the DDs T-Shirt either.)
161 - More seriously, I don’t think Ken is particularly socially liberal…
167 - In the man’s own words: http://politics.guardian.co.uk/person/0,9290,-978,00.html
“Kenneth Clarke says: “I hold all the classic liberal views, on hanging, race and all that sort of thing; my sense of social justice is quite strongly developed; I remain committed to the NHS and the state education system.” ”
What areas do you think he isn’t particularly social liberal on?
Iron Lady. First of all can I just say how deeply hurt and offended I am by your decision to put my chosen moniker in speech marks. It really wasn’t necessary to offend me in this way.
Secondly - you sound a bit rabid darling, with all these crazy words like “Trotskyites”.
Thirdly (yes I like numbering my points otherwise I lose track) - you say “what you seem to misunderstand is that this is the Conservative (the clues are there) leadership contest and it is decided upon by Conservatives.” What I say is - you seem to forget that many small “c” conservatives aren’t voting for the Tory party, and many floating voters who aren’t of any fixed political persuasion aren’t either. These people need to be won over. Therefore comments from such people (people like me for example) should not be so rudely dismissed.