REVEALED: Davis poll boost based on support of just 61 people
November 9th, 2005-
Full details of the poll that shook the markets
Populus Polls have now published on their website the full data set of today survey in the Times which has sent punters running to David Davis and changed the way 
in which many are viewing the contest.
The headline was that Tory supporters were supporting Davis over Cameron by 50%-37% - a huge turnround from other recent polls in this contest. When news of the poll first emerged late last night the Davis price tightened from 7.5/1 to almost 2/1. At the same time the Cameron price moved out sharply.
But from the information that has come from the pollster this evening it’s clear that the actual numbers that made up that 50-37 split were very small indeed. For from the total of 1500 people who took part in the survey a number of things happened:-
So the figures are based on those saying they were Tory supporters on one half of the survey. This amounted to just 122 people. Of these 61 said David would make the best leader and 46 said Cameron. The rest did not know. In the other group there were 172 Tory supporters but they were not asked the question.
In an excellent contribution to the site - (post 107) the Head of Populus, Andrew Cooper, makes a number of observations. This is part of what he wrote:- Personally I would not have put the headline they (the Times) did above the findings, but that isn’t a matter for me. What is clear from the poll is that it bears mixed messages. Davis has a lead as ‘best leader’, but Cameron has a (much bigger) lead when it comes to which of the two is judged more likely to win an election, unite the party, get it in touch with ordinary people etc. And all the poll questions on the Tory leadership indicate that Cameron attracts more support than Davis does from those not currently Conservative supporters.
Also it is very important to bear in mind that the bases for these questions about the Conservatives - reasonable enough at 750 at topline level - become quite small when it gets down to the level of Tory supporters. The figures on which The Times headline is based derive from a sub-sample of fewer than 150 Conservative supporters in that half of the poll sample (a fact which should be immediately obvious to sophisticated poll-followers such as the commentators on this site).
Our poll is not a projection of how Tory members will vote (nor even, precisely, of how Tory voters would vote if they had a vote). It is a comparison of how voters overall, and current Conservative supporters in particular view the two candidates. It is interesting that - as on so many other issues - Conservative voters and non-Conservative voters have a very different perspective. It suggests that Tory supporters are ambivalent about the candidates - seeing Cameron as more positive in many respects but still judging Davis, overall, as likely to make the best leader. It could easily be argued that Tory voters are, when it comes to these questions, the most irrelevant audience of all: they are not the electorate (except, obviously, the tiny sub-set of them who are members, whose responses are buried beneath the views of the huge majority who aren’t); and since they are the diehards, who - the past 3 elections seem to suggest - vote Conservative more or less regardless, their views about potential leaders could be regarded as immaterial.
Mike Smithson
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I’m keeping an eye on Betfair - how long until the price plummets back to 1.07?
I bought Dave as the price came out. Marvellous news. Cheers
What a shoddy piece of journalism this has turned out to be. Absolutely Outrageous.
3. Those who piled in laying the 1.12 will be very upset.
A fluke survey, I hope, Although in my family (5 party members) I’m the only cameron voter. Of the !00+ party members I know approx 60% if not over where for Cameron.
If you are all so confident he ( Cameron ) is still available to 1.25 on betfair .
But I don`t think you are or is everybody too engrossed in the current shenanigans at Westminster ?
Populus as a responsible polling organisation cannot simply point at the Times and say it was their fault, we would not have used the data that way writing a headline like that. They should have been proactive and told the Times the figures were relatively useless. Did they?
It really doesn’t say anything reliable even about how people see the two candidates. The margin of error must be enormous. So much so that on Conservativehome.com someone calculated that with the MOE on this sample the figures could be almost fully reversed. Could anyone confirm that?
Hi Stuart. You havent been around much. I think the Tory posters on this site are uncannily accurate on matters Tory which is why I’m convinced Cameron has it in the bag. There was some talk that Northern members were more pro Davis than Southern ones but as there are only about 12 of those I doubt they’ll swing the result!
I am from a Northern seat and it is mixed from what I am hearing. Older members tending to go for Davis, but that is by no means uniform and councillors tend to be going for Cameron.
Just heard on BBC News Davis has been criticised for saying he preferred Blondes; a little cruel seen as it was said in jest I think.
Ha -
That’s Ha Ha - laid him all morning…
3-Shoddy journalism in what used to be a well respected paper,until hijacked by Murdock & his New Labour cronies.
Can anyone take Populus seriously again?
“Can anyone take Populus seriously again? ”
Populus didn’t write the article
13- With the sample size was so small it was clearly a worthless poll in the first palce.
John. you ought to take the trouble to read the article at the top or better still Andrews complete posting on the other thread before writing such ill thought out and inaccurate posts.
Walking through Knutsford late this afternoon, few of my tory friends could look me in the eye. I wonder why?
7. The sample size is clearly a problem, but not quite that big. If it was the only issue and the sample were representative, then the poll would tell you that the probability of Cameron having a lead would be only ~5%. That the 105 who gave an answer were only Consevative voters rather than Conservative members is, I would think, a worse deficiency.
16 - Nope, thought about it - think you’ll have to tell us why.
Funny that The Times appears to have chosen today to give qualified backing to Cameron (see its leader today) - on the day it tries to do a hatchet job on him with this so obviously rogue poll - particularly given what we now know.
19 - Sadly I think the Times has become a publication that very few Conservatives have a great deal of trust in. I doubt anything malicious was meant in the reporting of the poll but it is the way many people in the party will perceive it.
20 - That would be reversed quite a lot I suspect if they sacked one particularly devious and unethical journalist.
21 - Would that be a journalist so devoted to our Prime Minister that he even shares his initials?
15-Roger,if you are unwilling or unable to see that the sample size is an issue with this survey then maybe you have been reading the wrong post or maybe the Sun newspaper again or indeed the Times itself?
22 - Stanley to his friends?
Why did Populus not ask the question to all 294 Tory voters? That would still be a small sample but large enough to have some credibility.
I know they wanted to ask other questions as well - but surely they could have asked the key question (ie who do you want to be leader?) first and the others afterwards.
46 out of 122 people = 37.7%. So why was Cameron reported as 37% in this morning’s Times? It should have been 38%. Don’t knows should be 12%, not 13%.
I appreciate this is an extremely pedantic point compared to the small sample size. But the fact is it is quite clearly wrong.
If it’s wrong here is it wrong too on other surveys? Rounding correctly to the nearest whole number is extremely important in, for example, a survey showing something like Lab 38, Con 33.
Why and how did this happen?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4420760.stm
The most essential thing about the two contenders has been revealed, we shouldn’t ask anything more now. this should swept all the doubts away.
Cameron wears boxers, while Davis wears briefs.
Now I suppose Chris Bryant will come out in support of DD!
27 - Another good reason to back DC! OTOH Davis prefers Blondes and we have to presume DC prefers Brunettes (IIRC his wife is one) - oh dear, it’s going to be a tough decision but at least we have some real issues.
27 - Another good reason to back DC! OTOH Davis prefers Blondes and we have to presume DC prefers Brunettes (IIRC his wife is one) - oh dear, it’s going to be a tough decision but at least we have some real issues.
27 - Definately has to be DC for me now - briefs look hideous on anyone.
The new leader of the Scottish Tories was at the Old Firm game tonight doing her ‘person of the people’ bit. Not sure who she was supporting but given she’s an Elder in the Kirk I could probably make quite an accurate guess!
28. Max, I could get offended…..I wear them sometimes.
Looks like YouGov are doing a poll for publication likely in the Telegraph this Saturday. We’ll see just how wide of the mark Populus really are!
27, 29 - Information overload!
31.AHM, don’t be prude! Otherwise I’ll adress your honourable persona with all your names tonight too.
30. AHM - is this a poll of Tory members? Where did you hear about it?
28 & 31 - I should also point out that should there be any attempted ’smears’ in my eventual run at the Tory leadership I do not routinelly hang around with men wearing only briefs and boxers - not since my rugby playing days anyway!
32 - You don’t know all of my names! ha!
33 - Mike: One or two people on conservativehome.com mentioned having completed a survey from YouGov today. I’m a member, but they never ask me about anything important.
O/T: I see that Justine Greening, John Hayes, Oliver Heald and Stephen O’Brien, all former Fox backers, have publicly declared for David Cameron today.
35. My dear I could always discover them……
34. Max, you’re too naif…..that doesn’t protect you from smears….you could still hang around with men not wearing anything at all!
28 - Max - boxers make you infertile; bear that in mind if you’ve the future of the line at heart!
37 - You’re not propositioning Max are you, Andrea?
Re my post 26:
I think there may be a typo on the Populus website. It says:
Davis 61
Cameron 46
Don’t know 16
Total 122
But the numbers actually add up to 123, not 122.
Depending upon where the typo is, it may well be that Cameron is correctly stated at 37%. Apologies to Populus if this is the case.
Not surprised. Nobody should take Populus seriously after their shameful General Election performance.
38 - I’ve already accepted the ciggies are going to do that Tabbers, so if I’m going to be childless I can at least have comfy underwear.
39 - First Jack W now Andrea - think my girlfriend might take my laptop away!
38. is this on the new Focus edition?
42. You vain man have misunderstood me. I wouldn’t dare to propose a briefphobe!
43 - this month’s bar chart is headlined “SWIMMING HERE”: only Liberal Democrat sperm can make it.
35. I’ve only ever been asked about brands I’ve never heard of. O well.
42 - She’s going to have you on a very short lead at this rate Max!
44 - I’m not a briefphobe just a boxerphile! Again can I assure anyone planning a smear campaign that does not mean I have an unhealthy facinations with pugilists or certain dog breeds.
45. are you run those barcharts in South Suffolk too?
47 - Allready am Alistair, allready am . . .
46 - I find the same thing. I guess I belong to the wrong age group/ethnicity/income bracket/gender/newspaper readership to be of value.
48. max, I’m hoping they’re at least boxerbriefs and not those outdated boxer……
52 - Come along now Andrea, no need to mince words. We all know you really want him in a thong.
53. Nah.I’m not a fan of them…. not very confrotable.
From the Gurdian:
“David Davis’s words were brilliant - “the silly, frantic, contemptible accusation that any party, least of all ours, might be soft on terrorism!” But his delivery is still appalling. He sounds like a geography teacher recapping on the agriculture of Belgium.”
The inferences I draw from this poll are:
1: there is a 95 % probability that the % of ‘current Conservative supporters’ who will vote Davis is within the range 42 - 72.
2: there is a 95 % probability that the % of ‘current Conservative supporters’ who will vote Cameron is within the range 30 - 56.
The total probabilities at the end of these ranges (i.e. < 50 for Davis) is very small.
The KEY issue, the only issue, is the randomness of the selection method used. If it is good, i.e. truly random, and IF and ONLY IF ‘current Conservative supporters’ are a good proxy for ‘current Conservative MEMBERS’ then Davis is a shoe-in. How do I go about making a bet?
. . (as I was saying): The total probabilities at the end of these ranges (i.e. gtr than 50 for Davis) is very small.
The KEY issue, the only issue, is the randomness of the selection method used. If it is good, i.e. truly random, and IF and ONLY IF ‘current Conservative supporters’ are a good proxy for ‘current Conservative MEMBERS’ then Davis is a shoe-in. How do I go about making a bet?
57 should read: ‘The total probabilities at the end of these ranges (i.e. LESS THAN than 50 for Davis) is very small.
The KEY issue, the only issue, is the randomness of the selection method used. If it is good, i.e. truly random, and IF and ONLY IF ‘current Conservative supporters’ are a good proxy for ‘current Conservative MEMBERS’ then Davis is a shoe-in. How do I go about making a bet?’ [My apologies for the error; i trust you an see your ways through it tot he important point within].
58. Are Chrisco and Christo the same poster, right?
59. Not sure if this has been commented upon but according to The Independent, at the end of the Conservative Womens Conference today there was a show of hands as to whom the delegates preferred. Estimate of the result:
Cameron 66%
Davis 14%
Don’t know 20%
59. Andrea - no I think they are different people. Christo is a less regular contributor than Chrisco.
Sorry my post 60 had nothing to do with your post 59!
Re 60 - according to the Telegraph there were approx 300 women at the Conference if anyone is interested in the sample size.
56, 57, 58. No, of course we are not the same person. Those posts were far too mathematical to have come from my brain; in fact, I believe that Christo predated me on here.
56,57,58. I see Davis is shortening again - maybe Christo’s money is going on!
What a ridiculous poll. And dreadful journalism seems to be spewing from Wapping this week.
64 - Davis has been shortening steadily over the past two hours, but Cameron hasn’t drifted much either. He was on 1.19 at 11pm, he’s on 1.24 now.
Boxers, comfortable??? Being an ’80s boy, I tried them in the wake of the Nick Kamen ad, but always found they squashed my ‘nads to one side when I sat down, so comfort won out. A nice pair of skimpies keeps the crown jewels nice and tight, I find.
67-Tabman, you know those Scots are a bit strange…..
My post this morning comes in three parts - Men’s Underwear, Scuffles and Cameron.
1. Men’s Underwear
We are all making the mistake of thinking boxers are homogenous. In fact, one can get many types of boxer-short, although some of the tighter variations may be defined as something else. They vary in the, ahem, affect. However, what is indisputable is that boxers are newer, cooler and less embarrassing. No one would laugh at a rumour that DC tucks his shirt into his boxers. DD is leaving himself open to mockery.
2. Scuffles
My colleague wants details about the scuffle I believe involved old Marshall yesterday. She is very disappointed that I know very little about this. Can anyone enlighten me?
3. Cameron
I put a week’s wages at 1.34 yesterday. Anyone else get the same or better? Nice to see my MP making the right choice, too.
69 - Scuffles - The Times has a very good account of it Julian. Although I don’t think it mentions the allegation that B M-A called Jim O’Dowd a ‘faggot’.
46 - And what exactly is wrong with me Andrea - not good enough all of a sudden!
Hello Roger
Have to say That those members in Bury and Bolton I have spoke to are heavily in Favour of Cameron. though the older ones do prefer (marginally) Davis. The Greater manchester CF branch is overwhelmingly Cameron. Strangely though A lot of my friends in Northampton South seem to be for Davis
70. Max, I’ve written BMA in protest. I doudt he’ll reply me back
Btw, there’s nothinw wrong with you. I was only teasing!
69.”However, what is indisputable is that boxers are newer, cooler and less embarrassing.”
Are you sure, Julian?
http://www.spca.org/estore/Assets/Products/Colorful%20Lab%20Boxers%20Clothesline_main.jpg
I don’t buy this nonsense about “northern members being more likely to vote Davis”. At a recent branch meeting in my area, of the 14 members present all 14 said they would vote for Cameron.
Even the blue-rinsers I know up here are backing DC.