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Predicting the most unpredictable year

December 28th, 2005

    Who’ll be PB.C’s top forecaster of 2006?

With so many question marks hanging over the UK domestic political scene it’s is going to be quite a challenge working out what is going to happen in the next twelve months. cam bookWill Blair and Kennedy go? Who will be the new leaders? Is the poll boost for Cameron’s Conservatives just a temporary thing or will it be sustained.

All these issues and more are covered in our competition for the year which has been designed so we can see how entrants are doing as the year progresses. There will be a prize for the winner. Please post your answers in the thread below by 2359 GMT on January 3rd 2006. Include a valid email address on the comment form – this will not be published.

    Please do not use this thread to post comments on the competition. This is for entries only.

As in all PB.C competitions the final decision on all matters relating to the competition is mine and I am right even when I am wrong.

1. For how many weeks of 2006 will Tony Blair continue to be Labour leader? One hundred points for a correct answer losing ten points for each complete week out.

2. For how many weeks of 2006 will Charles Kennedy continue to be Lib Dem leader? Fifty points for a correct answer losing five points for each complete week out.

3. Who will be Labour leader on Christmas Day 2006? One hundred points for a correct answer.

4. Who will be Lib Dem leader on Christmas Day 2006? Fifty points for a correct answer.

5. According to the BBC website on the Sunday after the May local elections what will be Labour’s net losses or gains of council seats? Indicate plus or minus. One hundred points for a correct answer losing one point for each three seats out.

6. According to the BBC website on the Sunday after the May local elections what will be the Liberal Democrats’ net losses or gains of council seats? Indicate plus or minus. One hundred points for a correct answer losing one point for each three seats out.

7. What will be Cameron’s Conservatives’ best position in relation to Labour in a Guardian ICM poll during 2006? Fifty for a correct answer losing 10 for each percentage point out.

8. What will be the Lib Dems’ best share in a Guardian ICM poll during 2006? Thirty for a correct answer losing 10 for each percentage point out.

9. By how many points will the Conservatives be below or above Labour in the February 2006 Guardian ICM poll? Indicate plus or minus. Fifty for a correct answer losing 10 for each percentage point out.

10. By how many points will the Conservatives be below or above Labour in the June 2006 Guardian ICM poll? Indicate plus or minus. Fifty for a correct answer losing 10 for each percentage point out.

11. By how many points will the Conservatives be below or above Labour in the September 2006 Guardian ICM poll? Indicate plus or minus. Fifty for a correct answer losing 10 for each percentage point out.

12. By how many points will the Conservatives be below or above Labour in the December 2006 Guardian ICM poll? Indicate plus or minus. Fifty for a correct answer losing 10 for each percentage point out.

Mike Smithson






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