Huhne set to win - YouGov
February 9th, 2006
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Second YouGov poll on Lib Dem members now released
I have just received this from Peter Kellner - boss of YouGov.
The attached data has just been released, from our latest poll of Lib Dem members. Huhne: 38%: Campbell 34%: Hughes 27%
The run-off figures, eliminating Hughes are:Huhne 52%: Campbell 48%.
According to the accompanying spreadsheet the survey took place from February 7-9 and the client was John Stevens. The number of members in the sample was 401.
This is not the survey over which there has been much speculation on the site in the past few days.
The person who commissioned the poll, John Stevens, works in the city and was an MEP, sitting for the Tories in Brussels from 1989-1999.
Mike Smithson
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Mike. I’m a little confused. Are there said to be two different You Gov polls or is this it? Also do we know who commissioned this poll? Was it a Ming supporter or a Huhne supporter
I would be very surprised if this was the result - but I have been wrong before, and have closed my Ming positions - I had 3 and the price moved 2 points lower after I had done the first two! - The power of PB.
I will pile back in if the buy price goes below 50
Ah the dark horse….common sense prevails, more than a one term leader and no skeletons in the cupboard. excellent news
Huhne supporter, John Stevens is backing Chris Huhne.
1 I suspect this is a second YouGov poll looking at the fieldwork dates of 7-9 Feb.
John Stevens is on Chris Huhne’s supporters list.
The Huhne campaign will be happy with these figures but it is still tight and the nature of YouGov polling may overrepresent Huhne’s support.
What I find interesting about the answers to the other questions is that it is a very mixed picture with all three in contention.
So the turkeys really are voting for Christmas.
Listen to lib dem *voters* folks, they’re the ones who got you up to 22%, if you don’t listen to them, watch that figure drop and seats go to other parties.
One thought on the validity of the poll. It shows 77% of respondents as in favour of higher fuel charges. An academic study (summarised in the Guardian) recently showed that 53% of Members supported this policy. So internet users may be differnt from other members. (Alternatively members may have changed their minds).
I agree with Sam that it is worth looking at all the figures here.
4 - I am not sure it matters too much as the questions appear reasonably unbiased. I would have preferred to see the “who are you going for” question before the others in a way. The trouble with Ming’s age (which precedes the voting question) is that I hear a lot of people say “it doesn’t matter to me but I worry that it matters to other people” and yet I have yet to hear somebody say “it matters to me”.
Interesting that Huhne wins the question on experience outside Westminster - Ming quite probably has more (Huhne is fairly strong on it too but not as much) and it is interesting that this has not come across all that strongly. If elected, it should be something he tries to address. Howard - who had a pretty weighty career outside Westminster - probably had the same problem in that image sense (although he also had other public perception problems Ming doesn’t).
Interesting! I’ve absolutely no opinion about Huhne - never heard him speak, and because MPs can’t usually see TV have missed any interviews too. Other things being equal, I think the public would react with some interest to a fresh face, as they did with Cameron. He’ll have to overcome the “Who Huhne” headlines on day 1, but that’s a transient thing.
I see the Tories are now thinking of abolishing the requirement for MPs to declare allegiance to the Queen - shame Tony Banks didn’t live to see this outbreak of republicanism! I think they’re actually right on democratic grounds - why shouldn’t people be allowed to elect non-monarchist MPs if they want? Swearing allegiance to the interests of the nation and the people represented should do (though the former will still give Sinn Fein problems).
I’m sure it won’t shift a single vote at this point, so for what it’s worth I’ll pass on the opinion of a colleague who has spent a lot of time in the by-election that the SNP will indeed come second, and Labour will win by a moderate margin, say 1500.
Any other interesting local elections tonight?
Unless I’m mistaken this poll is not the disputed one which was debated so much yesterday.
This was the second poll some of us very recently filled in. As I said on this site then, I was sure it was from the Huhne camp because the questions were phrased in a subtly leading way (nothing wrong with that, btw. I’m a Huhne fan).
Eg, Ming and Simon were both described as professional lawyers; Chris as a journalist and businessman - this was the preface to the question, who do you think will best be able to understand the issues facing Britain today?
I’m surprised YouGov is content to allow leading questions to be asked in this kind of survey. They are not empirical questions, and therefore answers may be skewed. This is clearly a good poll result for Chris. But I would treat it with some caution.
(We should also remember that YouGov has no track record with Lib Dem membership polling - how could it? - though this poll may prove to be as uncannily accurate as their polls for the Tory leadership etc. But it might just not.)
This looks to me to be rather too close to call. I know YouGov were pretty accurate on the Tories, but there was a clear leader there, and only two contestants. Simon’s price has plummetted, but these figures seem to show he’s still in with a shout of coming second… do the YouGov figures give us any indication of what would happen if Hughes came second to Hughne? Where would the Campbell second votes go? It could all be down to performance on QT tonight.
Do we have any sources who can give us a running total of postal votes received (as I was able to provide during the Tory contest)?And what about dyslexic LDs who can’t tell the difference between Hughne and Hughes?
A bit surprised, but also worried by how close the candidates seem. Seems like there is no runaway winner. However, a close result would be great for Huhne, and awful for Campbell (in fact, I think MC would struggle to have any real authority given his position if he won by 1/2%) so I hope that if it’s close, Huhne pips it.
But Hughes is clearly in the running, and it’s all to play for on Question Time tonight.
To the doubters I just say - “dream on”
11 - no, the dyslexic LDers all vote Democratic Left by accident.
Huhne “set to win”? Margin of error is well over 2% on that sample size!
Huhne now favourite on Betfair
7 It may be that the debate during the contest, particularly with all three contenders backing green taxes in principle, has shifted opinion within the party.
Given the answers on several issues you can see why Huhne has been gaining ground.
Also very positive that most respondents don’t seem to be overly worried about either of the likely winners.
So the LibDems are going to elect Huhne.
Excellent. He has a majority of 568. Come the election they will be in meltdown. The Tories will have no reason not to turn that LibDem tactic of decapitation against the LibDems. Huhne will be tied down in his constituency trying to keep his seat while the rest of them founder around the country leaderless and lost.
By electing Huhne they LibDems deserve everything that’s coming to them. And such stupidity certainly deserves to be punished.
The other parties must be laughing their heads off.
LibDems are a sell.
17 - as a Huhnite, I’d settle for Ming as leader if need be. If Hughes became leader, it would depend who he put on his front bench. It might be time to defect… to the old Liberal party, which is still going.
18 - spin, spin and more spin…
The poll seems to suggest the Lib Dems are split three ways - between a geriatric Grimond/Steel type who perhaps appeals to the more non-ideological especially in the Celtic fringe, a loony leftwinger who perhaps appeals to the beard and sandals kamikaze squad, and a ‘technocrat’ who perhaps appeals to the younger ‘Orange Book’ element. So the poll could be said to reveal quite nicely the bizarre contradictions within the Lib Dems. I agree with an earlier poster that a close finish, especially if Campbell just scrapes it, will set the scene for more infighting.
Oh F**k.
Another day, anyother barrage of Hughes and Huhne claiming each other are out of the race etc. LibDem members and activists, who use this ploy day-in-day-out, musn’t know what to think!
21 - Interesting what Fred said. In the immortal words of Mandy Rice-Davis: “Well, he would, wouldn’t he?”
18 - Leadership bonus answers that one. The Party leader always gets a bonus in their seat, has done for every party since the Second World War.
9. As you know, Nick, the oath of allegiance is to the Queen, ‘her heirs and successors’. This typical piece of double-verbage (cf. ‘to have and to hold’) exposes a logical difficulty. Monarchists would argue that the Queen’s only legitimate successors are her heirs, so why swear allegiance to both? But republicans can take the oath believing that the Queen’s successor should be an elected president (in much the same way as Cromwell was Charles I’s successor)
Very interesting about Huhne - I think the LDs have hit on something. If just say hypothetically I did not want the Libdems to do well I would definitely prefer Campbell as a leader.
Love it, a getting on for even 3 way split.
Chaos beckons as the Orange Bookers take on all comers and the dull as dishwater bank manager steps up to the plate !!!
On a serious note, if I were an LD, I’d go for Huhne at this stage
of the game. Make Mark Senior right about MC’s age (even though he
is ‘the’ safe paid of hands)and think Hughes’ recent lack of familiarity with an outright straight answer to his past life is something that will continue to hang over him in the eyes of many.
(If not so much among LDs themselves)
Interesting times………….
20- You think it’s spin? I say it’s the numbers. The number is 568.
And you can’t deny the numbers, unless you live in an alternate reality. Which begs the question, are LibDems living in an alternate reality? Those voting for Huhne certainly are.
Remember the magic number: 568.
I’m still selling.
9 - “why shouldn’t people be allowed to elect non-monarchist MPs if they want?”
But that’s simple. Whether you are a monarchist or a republican, you observe and respect the laws of the land, which in this country includes declaring allegiance to the Crown. If you were practically deterred from making republican pronouncements by the Oath, then it might be an issue - but no-one is. Not allowing MPs to swear allegiance the Queen would be like allowing elected US offficials to swear allegiance to the Monarch because they don’t believe in the War of Independence, or French officials to pledge themselves to the Bourbons or Napoleon. Sinn Fein may be licensed rebels, but that doesn’t mean we have to follow their example.
Surely the Ming camp have to release the other poll…unless it’s worse!
There has been much talk that internet users are not typical LD members so the poll isn’t representative. The same could be said in spades about Tory members, many of them elderly, but the You Gov poll proved remarkably accurate on the Tory leadership. It seems to me that those LD members worried about MC’s age faced with David Cameron will now be aware that they have a youngish credible alternative. These polls must be a huge boost to Huhne and yet another severe setback to MC’s campaign. Also whisper it not but Hughes is only 7 points behind MC on first preferences. Could Ming come third?
I think (re 18) the boundary changes in Hampshire might help the LibDems in Eastleigh.
32 - “Could Ming come third?”
No.
This is the best news yet in this contest.
A leaderless, rudderless party with a growing sense-of-direction problem seems to be about to choose a divisive leader with virtually no track record in Westminster who will be resented by at least half his (already out-of-control) MP’s; by a tiny (and disputable) margin.
The membership, already annoyed at the MP’s for in their view unreasonably decapitating their own party, will be demoralised and confused by continuing dissent from and increasingly worried Westminster contingent.
A pro-European leader for the Lib dems is manna from heaven for Conservatives like me in a strongly eurosceptic area like Devon.
An ‘orange book’ leader taking the party right on economics will be manna from heaven for marginal Labour MP’s previously under threat from Lib Dem challengers.
All in all, good for everyone except Lib Dem supporters.
The poll might be taken seriously, although you’d have to take a long hard look at the breakdown before you could be absolutely sure it was truly reprsentative of LDs nationwide. Huhne (who’d be a leap in the dark without the usual charisma of LD leaders) has definitely developed momentum. But Campbell’s underlying recognition and respect should still ensure he pulls through, even if he does so narrowly on second preferences.
Interesting to see postings by some Tories on this site about how they are rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect of a Huhne victory.
Are they trying to persuade Lib Dems not go for him out of the goodness of their own heart, or do they have darker motives.
I detect that he is the one they fear.
Joe Fairw and Sam
Would you like to drop me a line?
liberalism2010@yahoo.co.uk
17 - I accepted that possibility. But I am not convinced.
Can someone who understands Maths better than me tell me what the margin of error on this poll is?
33 - Maybe slightly. It’s still the best news for the Tories ever, and just after I was thinking of going short on them too because the Cameron bubble is bound to burst sooner rather than later.
Of course, it means Labour is a shoe-in at the next election.
33 The boundary changes in Hampshire help Romsey and Eastleigh by a few hundred votes each on paper and Winchester by a couple of thousand. This is due to a large chunk of the rural bit of Winchester being hived off into the new Meon Valley seat.
35 - Couldn’t most of that post have been written about the Tories a few months ago?
37 Go for it then Subs - Bring it on !!!
I think that Huhne would be a very capable leader for the Lib Dems. His steadfast desire to do something serious about green issues is inspiring. And although he may not have as much charisma as Cameron, clearly the word coming from the hustings as reported here and elsewhere shows that he has heaps more than Ming. Let’s face it, and though this might seem unfair, compared to the other two leaders, Ming does look elderly. Hughes would be a dead duck, that’s fairly obvious to everyone. So, if the Lib Dems do get Huhne, they’ll be doing well.
29 - The other key number is 400,000 which is one of the amounts I’ve seen bandied around for how much the Tories spent in Eastleigh in the run up to 2005, yet couldn’t win it back, and indeed the swing was less than it normally was when a sitting Lib Dem MP stands down. Now, consider what happens when Chris Huhne is the sitting MP and as party leader gets to be on TV every day during the election campaign. The Lib Dems tried to decapitate Howard and poured a lot into Folkestone during the last election…and his majority actually went up.
39 - I reckon if you include the margin of error the final result is roughly Huhne 48-56%, Campbell 44-52%.
Sam at 42, you could have said this about the Conservatives -quite accurately, at any time from about 1988 until 2004 when Michael Howard eventually brought the party together behind him.
I am certain that the Lib dems have a very hard time ahead, political parties can easily fall to pieces when under pressure - we did; you will.
9 - Nick, on message as always. If you’re ramping the SNP then the orange hordes must have you worried!
I would have thought Huhne’s majority will only go one way with an increased media profile and that’s up. His current small majority doesn’t worry me at all.
Sorry to state the obvious but I couldn’t see any mention above that this isn’t a FPTP vote - do the figures give an impression of people’s second choices? Is it possible for there to be an anti-Ming or anti-Huhne element that could see Hughes slip through? (yes, I’m clutching at straws here).
For those with a firewall at work. Betfair as I write:
CH 1.96; MC 2.06; SH 25
The market seems to believe the second You Gov poll.
49 - you can deduce from the figures there that Hughes’ first preferences break about equally to the other two candidates. Nothing about the second prefs of Campbell and Huhne supporters as far as I can see.
The market probably believes the YouGov poll becuase half of those on here are busy clicking various buttons on Betfair et al!
41. Sam et al. I think the Eastleigh boundary changes will have a minimal partisan effect - only part of the divided Chandler’s Ford West ward is leaving, which is Lib Dem held. Huhne’s notional majority will drop by a couple of hundred. Leaves things very tight though.
51 bookvalue, go to http://www.yougov.com/archives/pdf/IDE060101003_1.pdf for the full poll results.
I’m happy with my position on Huhne so don’t have to worry about clicking on Betfair!
I get happier with every click.
21 - The problem that you can’t seem to grasp is that although we all have our prefered choice as leader most if not all of us would be happy to work with any of the three in that capacity. In policy terms the gap between all three isn’t that huge so that it has become about which we feel is best able to lead the party in making further progress. I think that is why the race is so close with all three probably enjoying 25-33% support.
Personally from talking to others I have no idea who is going to win. I’ve always believed that Hughes would do better than has been forecast at times on this site. I’m also aware that a lot of people have been impressed by Huhne. Campbell is widely respected but there is concern about his age and the ‘caretaker’ image. Although he is my first choice I don’t think Hughes will win. If I had to gamble on the other two I think I would guess Huhne by a small margin over Campbell but it would be no more than a fiver.
…can’t believe Huhne’s price hasn’t tightened more than 1.9something
The poll estimates the potential vote a few days ago. People will change their mind after QT and Dunfermline. It’s still all to play for in my opinion. Hughes will likely do well this evening, but maybe people have factored this in already. I wonder if the audience will be partisan? Will we see another attack like Aitken Junior’s on DD in the Tory contest QT?
Eastleigh Boundary changes very marginal indeed - although would imagine the Tories of Hiltingbury and Chandler’s Ford are now looking forward to fighting Winchester!
58 Seems to indicate taht there are many doubts about this poll. You gov might just end up with a tarnished reputation here (or not, of course). I am tempted to buy some Campbell - but I think that the price will swing out further before tightening.
Or it may just be that it’s not being reported widely yet. Eg. it’s still not on the BBC website. It can’t only be us who are working Betfair.
61 BTW Mike - what is he doing in that photo? It’s even more bizarre than the gun!
46 - Yes. +/- 4.9% would be how it would appear on paper but as your figures rightly recognise that is at 50% and we are looking at slightly lower margins.
51 - The numbers do have Campbell’s and Huhne’s second preferences - both split heavily in favour of the other rather than Hughes. So it is impossible to see Hughes coming through the middle on those numbers, although the sample sizes are obviously lower for second prefs so big margin of error. That ties in with thoughts elsewhere on Huhne/Campbell being a common 1/2 in either order, with few Hughes second prefs. The question about who you would NOT want leading the party further confirms this (Hughes well ahead, others equal).
Have gone flat. Too many polls, too much spin.
Ming on IG now at 50 but closed!!!!
29 - If you look at the record of party leaders in the modern era they almost always increase their majorities due to their high media profile. In 1997, while all about him huge Tory majorities were being overturned John Major increased his majority. Blair, Kennedy, Hague and Howard all outperformed their parties and substantially increased their majorities. Defy history if you will it’s your money.
54 - thanks Tim Z.
This poll is rubbish - buy Campbell.
60. Despite Hiltingbury (especially) and Chandler’s Ford E being Tory inclined they won’t I fear offset the loss of rural areas to Meon Valley. That said, after the Oaten scandal, anything could happen - he had a big personal vote that could go into reverse. If instead of the Tory GE vote being 10% less than in the CC elections and the Lib Dem share being 11% higher these figures were reversed, he would be out.
35 & 47 - Marcus, if you’ve recovered from your little Tory wetdream, could you respond to my enquiry on the previous thread (92) about what level of performance in D&WF would disappoint you.
67 - All the cases you cite were in safe seats. This is not Huhne’s position. If Huhne were thinking of his party first, then the only thing he’d be worrying about would be shoring up his majority. Instead, his mind is elsewhere…
72 - That’s not true look at Kennedy’s majority after the 1997 election which was around 3,000 which is hardly safe.
73 - 3,000 is safer than 568.
73 - His absence touring the country didn’t hurt him despite the fact that personal contact with voters has traditionally been much more important in the Highlands & Islands.
72 - I have expressed before worries about Huhne’s majority because it would be spun as part of a “Libs on back-foot” story. It is a factor against him, and members casting a vote should consider it carefully.
However, that is not the same as worrying about him actually losing his seat. Were he elected leader, there would be a three year by-election style push on the ground from day one. The Tories would do it too but you simply aren’t as good at it. He would almost certainly survive with a reasonable majority in fact.
73 - indeed. I remember there was a load of media speculation during the ‘01 campaign that CK might lose his seat (I think following a rogue constituency poll). As it was, he recorded a massive swing.
Huhne now down to 1.8 on Betfair…on the evidence of the poll and other data we have that seems to me to have gone too far. But taking account of momentum may well be fair. There seems to be a few hundred pounds needing to bet against Ming but refusing to see the writing on the wall (in other words laying Ming at below prices on offer in hope someone will back him, only to see the money which was available drift away). So if you think the poll might be somewhat biased towards Huhne, you think Ming will do well on QT and, ultimately, pull through, this might be the day to back him. But make sure you see how far the drift goes…as I’ve been writing this Huhne has come in to more like 1.7!
73. That was a 10% majority though - small seat size. I think the really interesting question about Huhne’s fate is what happens if he doesn’t win the leadership…after all look at what happened to Jackie Ballard and David Rendell hahahahaha
What do you think Nick Clegg is thinking?
Reading the data too close to call if accept that the 401 asked are representative of the membership.
Ming now 47 would like to buy but still closed!!!
79 Fred - yes it was well worth the one-term Flook to get rid of Ballard. Fortunately Browne will be much harder to unseat - not least because the Taunton boundary changes do not favour the tories.
79 - yes, Huhne’s majority is around 1.1% ahead of the Tories. It’s a huge gamble for the LibDems.
71 Any failure to advance from our current level in D&WF would clearly be a disappointment and would offer critics an opportunity
(which I’m certain they will latch onto gleefully)to question the depth of our recovery in recent opinion polls.
Being objective, I don’t really see Dunfermline as a key benchmark/measureable for us at this stage though as it clearly isn’t going to be a target seat anytime soon and isn’t naturally fertile Conservative ground.
Think May 4th will be hugely indicative though and will be the basis on which medium/longer term assessments will begin to be made more authoritively.
Re 2 & 81 Icarus - pls could you explain for those of us who don’t spread bet…how can it be closed? Bookmaker refusing to take bets? And
‘I had 3 and the price moved 2 points lower after I had done the first two!’ completely confused me!
Re 39 & 46. If this was a random sample of Lib Dem members - i.e. one in which all Lib Dem members had an equal random chance of being polled - the margin of error on a sample of 400 would be plus or minus 5% on each figure, which would actually mean that on first preference the three candidates are within the margin of error of each other & they could come in any order whatsoever. But by definition panel polls aren’t based on random probability sampling, so standard margins of error don’t apply.
Clegg is gutless.
80 He’s probably thinking it’s time to arrange for quiet beer with Mr Huhne sometime soon!
84 “it clearly isn’t going to be a target seat anytime soon and isn’t naturally fertile Conservative ground.”
Isn’t that what the Tories said about the Leicester South by-election result having spent the campaign claiming they could win it, bar charts and all?
We 86 well pointed out, though someone else pointed out that in percentage point terms the margin of error falls as estimates move away from 50%. However, if it was an unbiased random sample, the probability of Huhne actually trailing Hughes would be low.
Sorry IG say that they wont take bets whilst considering effect of the poll - they expect a new price in 20-30mins.
Re I had 3 - meant I had 3 bets taken at different prices and had to close them one at a time - the price moved after I had cashed in 2 of them.
If the price stays at 47 or lower I can rebuy at less than I sold allowing for the spread of 8, which is a bugger, but I had a chance to look at the poll data so that I can decide whether to get back in or not.
87 - no, he’s 39. Far too young for any sensible politician to dream of becoming their party’s leader.
86 - we had this discussion last week I think: the MoE still measures the precision of the poll, but not its accuracy (i.e. its correspondence to how the full electorate will vote).
as a labour supporter huhne would be the favoured option. a lib dem party with huhne, laws (why do the tories want him, he’s cold and a bit odd on tv), clegg and the new libs in charge. they look and sound like psuedo tories and it’ll be easier to win back the seats we’ve lost to the libs in recent years with them in charge. they are also more likely to hold on to those southern seats the tories need to win back to form a govt.
86 - thanks, Andrew. I’m inferring from that that you’re saying the YouGov poll should be more accurate than +/-5%…?
83 and elsewhere - let’s just kill this nonsense about majority, stone dead.
Most of Chris Huhne’s MP backers are campaigners who’ve won their seats the hard way. Some of them have small majorities. None of them are complacent in the slightest.
The Tories threw the book at Eastleigh in a concerted way before the General Election - a large six-figure sum, more than even the decapitation seats bar I think Howard’s. And Chris - despite not being the incumbent - still won.
None of us would be backing him if we thought he would not hold his seat. And yes, I backed Jackie Ballard last time: except in Taunton the Lib Dem local government base was disintegrating and the local party clearly not up to shape - and it got worse.
I would happily lay any money on Chris as leader retaining his seat. Even if he doesn’t win, he’s much more likely to retain his seat than others with larger majorities - with a good campaign team in place and rock-solid Lib Dem control of Eastleigh Borough Council.
Question Time is now critical - but there’s a real contest on here. Buy Huhne.
89 - I would have hoped (forlornly obviously) that an educated North Oxford lad might have conceded that a 10% share of the vote is rather indicative of the seat not being within the top, say, 600+ of Tory targets …
76. I agree that it’s the media angle on it rather than the actual risk of losing his seat that’s the worry (although I’m probably less of a risk-taker than others in that I do prefer to err on the side of caution). We need to ensure that all our media coverage in the run-up is focused on policies and values rather than anything else.
what’s happened….after a frenzy of Huhne backing suddenly no-one will touch him at
Mings price on IG has moved again down to 45 now back up to 46 all the time being “Closed” - so it can’t be the weight of money moving things.
Hva e they been talking to you Mike or just reading PB.com?
79 - Both Ballard and Rendel were humiliated in 1999 and looked rather foolish. If I remember correctly, they each got something below 10% of the vote. Whatever happens now (unless there is something horrible in the Sunday papers!) Huhne won’t be humiliated - he will look like a major player win or lose. Generally, people quite like having a major player as their MP in preference to some saddo as long as the casework is being done efficiently and they are seen around.
63. It looks as if he’s trying to make a point about EU regulation - too much of it lying around and it needs to have sunset clauses. Or it could be new tax legislation.
97 I fully understand that. The point I was making was that Tories, many of whom regularly criticise the Lib Dems for their by-election tactics, are past masters at telling the electorate in a by-election one thing, and then using the opposite as an excuse for their failure afterwards. Leicester South was one example of this.
Was this by any chance the same poll which asked something like “who’s the right age, and who is more likely to understand issues facing the public”?
So did this poll measure whom people actually intended to vote, or whom they though was in his best age to lead the party?
im quite pleased. ive had £10 on Ming at 2.5, i could now lay this and make it a free bet.
Bally Eric - I don’t think you’ve been listening to Huhne enough. He’s great news for the tories, in fact I couldn’t think of a candidate who would be better (at least Hughes may squeeze labour votes and take some tory/lib dem marginals). I’m sure you realise that Huhne is good news for labour but, as far as the two main parties go, it’s a win/win situation.
If I was the tories I’d be glad that it wasn’t Campbell (although he still presents a good target) and labour similarly with Hughes. Huhne is a double whammy, everyone’s happy (except many lib dem voters……….)
89 I hail to the masters of bastardized bar charts !
101 Most members will probably have voted before the Sunday papers come out - all ballot papers now seem to be out.
102 - Oh I see - EP is European Parliament then.
Now it becomes evident that the other poll that was supposedly leaked was in fact by another campaign and not Huhne’s. Some of us thought that maybe it was excellent spinning on their behalf: now it looks like it was a desparate defence by one of the other campaigns.
It reinforces the belief that Mike and Guido’s numbers were right (or nearly right) about the other poll, and that yougov’s rebuttal was playing lose with their language in their rebuttal.
UKpaul - Absolutely right. The Tories are going to love quoting Huhne’s swivel-eyed Euro clap-trap back at him at every turn.
Huhne wants to scrap the pound for goodness sake - how many votes is that going to win off the Tories?
94 & 106 So we’re agreed then. Huhne will be good news for Labour because he’s right wing and good news for the Tories because he’s left wing.
I think I’m starting to see why the Lib Dem members seem to identify with him …
34 - Marcus(and other Tories)your argument about Huhne is hilarious, same one the Lid Dems tried to use for DC, no experience, not enough backing with MPs(remember Davis had the vast majority) and other such tosh!
I think mist Lid Dems accept that they said this as they were worried(justifiably it seems) about him.
So please you “true blues” don’t fall in to the same trap of Huhne would be a disaster, experience….. I think that looks like you guys might be just a bit more worried about him then Ming or Hughes.
Please don’t reply if its just the normal vitriol, time will tell as it will with Dc, but rubbishing Huhne at this point will not make anyone change their minds(if fact the opposite will probably happen)
06-10 & 11- two words for you Tory lovers “Flip-Flop”, DC in May 2005 and DC Feb 2006, please lets play spot the difference or not!
96. Readingliberal, I still think it’s a needless risk that we don’t have to take.
(I also don’t see how the majority size of his MP backers comes into it)
109 - I was just thinking the same thing. This new poll was done a couple of days later than the first one and, if the leaked figures were near to being right, would suggest a small shift Huhne’s way. This would certainly fit in with the growing sense of panic in the Hughes camp.
“Being objective, I don’t really see Dunfermline as a key benchmark/measureable for us at this stage though as it clearly isn’t going to be a target seat anytime soon and isn’t naturally fertile Conservative ground.”
I couldn’t give a damn one way or the other. As you say, May 4th is far more important.
96 - How can you kill this? Chris Huhne’s miniscule majority is the sword of Damocles hanging over him and, by extension, the LibDems, if/when he becomes leader.
Sure other LibDem MPs of small majorities, the difference between them and Huhne is they’re not standing for party leader.
You say that at the last election the Tories threw a six figure sum at Eastleigh, so next time, they’ll throw a bigger six figure sum, depending on their fund raising.
You may be convinced that Huhne won’t lose his seat. The numbers, or rather that little magic number, “568″ suggests it’s in danger.
104. Yes, it did use blatant push-polling.
Re: 93 & 95. The margin of error on a 400 sample is +/- 5%. What is much harder to pin down is the definition of the universe to which that margin or error applies. Because there is not an equal random chance of all Lib Dem members being polled it is plainly not +/- 5% on the attitudes of all Lib Dem members. At the other extreme it will, I don’t doubt, be very much more accurate than +/- 5% on the views of Lib Dem members who are signed up to YouGov’s panel. But there is no way of knowing how similar or different they may be from Lib Dem members as a whole. So I do not think it is possible to assert anything else about the margin of error - indeed I think it is arguable that YouGov polls don’t really have a definable margin of error. That is not to criticise them at all - it is just a function of internet polling, and of course YouGov’s record is exceptionally good both in general and specifically on party leadership ones (though this Lib Dem race is plainly more complicated, and seems much tighter, than either of the Tory leadership elections that YouGov got spot on).
re: Sunday papers and new exposures. Didn’t the Tories in Eastleigh make some mud stick on Huhne over his use of public money to fund his campaign? Something about the European Parliament office in London? Might be worth another look.
117 - PaulT - Desperate man, looking at his majority as an excuse not to vote for him! Remember the Lib Dems did the same with Howard and failed, his majority went up due to the fact that he was being targeted and that he was leader.
Re 99 & 100 ignore 99 temporary lack of liquidity.
100 Icarus what is the point of displaying changing prices if it’s closed? Don’t you prefer Betfair with lower margins and ‘instant access’?
118. This poll is somewhat unusual in that it asks questions on policy and personality before asking for voting intention. The policy questions in particular seem to flag up the Huhne agenda: green taxes, minimum replacement for Trident, troops out of Iraq by Xmas.
This isn’t push-polling, but the choice and order of questions does seem designed to give the best possible result for Huhne.
114 In my view each of the three bring risks which we have to balance with their positives.
The low majority is certainly a risk with Huhne.
For me the risk of us appearing to have a ‘caretaker’ leader with Campbell are greater.
The most important factors for me personally are a) how convincing they are when they appear in the media (Kennedy’s big plus) and b) they ability to set a clear agenda (Ashdown’s big plus).
From what I have seen during the campaign Huhne has done best on both of these.
123. Doesn’t that qualify as push-polling? It’s pretty unusual for a poll to ask questions in that order.
I’d be happy to hear no more of Huhne’s majority, as this has been completely overdone here. Most first term MPs get an incumbency effect; most new leaders get a bounce (even the hated Howard, for God’s sake!). Huhne would be expected to get both - doesn’t make it safe but lot safer than it looks and just not a factor to go on about.
120 Well if they did they obviously didn’t make enough of it stick.
Ming has had the backing of half the Lib Dem MPs, yet despite this has been running a very lacklustre leadership campaign.
If he cannot lead the other MPs in a decent leadership campaign then Lib Dem members need to ask themselves if he is really gonna be capable of succesfully leading the parliamentary party as party leader.
I wonder if some of those MPs who committed to him very early on are now regretting not biding their time a little.
I know several Lib Dem members who have gone over to Huhne in the last week and however accurate the poll is, it is surely picking up on what is a very real swing towards Huhne.
118 - And was it commisioned by the same client than the previous, unpublished polls?
A quote from a previous thread:
Some clue about the client for the YouGov surveys might be drawn from the code they give them. Each survey has a three letter code followed by eight numbers. The three letters are generally quite descriptive of the client ; e.g. TEL = Telegraph, FIN = Financial Times, YGX = YouGov.
The three surveys commissioned during the LD leadership race which I’ve completed all have the code IBE. That’s the first time this has been used in the two years I’ve been a YouGov panelist. I can’t come up with an answer from this… over to you Sherlocks.
by Bill Butcher February 8th, 2006 at 9:53 am
According to the Huhne site http://www.chris2win.org.uk/news/45.html , this poll was commissioned by John Stevens, whose name you can find also from the supporter list of Huhne: http://www.chris2win.org/pages/fullsupporterlist.html
Now, why hasn’t he released the previous polls? Was it because he had to get one, which would put Huhne on lead, and therefore finally resorted to a poll, where the questions were twisted to favour Huhne?
124. I don’t think you can really put ‘the appearance of having a caretaker leader’ in the same league as majority when it comes to risk.
Fortunately, no one thought Churchill was a caretaker leader during the war.
Is it not possible that a safer seat will be found for Huhne to contest at the next election - say Mark Oaten’s Winchester, to pick one at random?
Any signs of any high-profile defections from Campbell to Huhne yet?
129. Good thinking, Lilith.
Re 129 To repeat from earlier thread: I would urge people not to complete polls for which the funder(s) are not transparent. If you’re not told up front (as you should be), ask; if refused an answer, refuse to give your answers!
131. Uhm, it would generate bad press (the LD leader is afraid to lose his seat).
129 - For guys who would love him to be leader you guys are sure working up a sweet about him!
134. Would bad press not be better than running the risk of trying to defend an anorexically slim majority? Surely trying to negate such bad press would be a better use of resources than trying to match what we Conservatives would be pouring into our decapitation efforts in beastly Eastleigh?
134 - Absolutely right Andrea, it is utterly inconceivable that he would switch seats. I also believe that there is a constitutional rule in the Lib Dems to prevent chicken runs of the sort that occured in 1992-7 amongst the Tories, although just possibly you can in theory follow voters (so if Eastleigh loses one ward to Winchester you could theoretically follow possibly).
Mike, can you explain why a YouGov poll showing Campbell 6% ahead gets the header “it’s very close”, while a YouGov poll showing Huhne 4% ahead gets the header “Huhne set to win”?
136. “Surely trying to negate such bad press would be a better use of resources than trying to match what we Conservatives would be pouring into our decapitation efforts in beastly Eastleigh? ”
well, I think you conservatives should save some resources for all the 100+ seats you need to win a majority.
136 - No. “Huhne stands and fights against the odds” is infinitely better than, “Lib Dems on the run: Huhne deserts marginal seat”. He knows that and would never do it - and I believe he is genuinely committed to the seat and his constituents.
138 Peter - it’s because there’s a clear movement in Huhne’s direction. It’s always been Ming’s contest to lose - he’s doing just that.
139. We have considerably more resources at our disposal than the Liberal Democrats, and in Liberal Democrat-Conservative marginals, we could be boosted by the Liberal Democrats having a leader distracted by trying to cling onto his own seat.
138. Momentum. Ming ain’t got it.
140. All the while, Huhne would be unable to join the fight in key marginals elsewhere as he would be distracted by his own personal battle.
128. What lacklustre campaign? He has an excellent-looking website featuring a constant stream of endorsements from MPs who clearly think he is a genuinely nice person to work with, determined etc etc. He’s given us a far better idea of how he would lead the party and what his values are than Huhne has. He’s not tried to put all his eggs in policy baskets that may or may not end up being approved. He’s been to Dunfermline numerous times and been to hustings and other appearances at the same time as having to carry out the acting leader’s job. The one thing that hasn’t been to my liking has been the odd bit of whispering, but from what I’ve heard that has come from the fringes of the campaign anyway, and in any case has been nothing compared to the spinning of the Hooners.
A word of advice for nervous Campbell backers on IGsport. Don’t sell too frantically. If you bought Campbell at, say, 62, there’s no point in selling him at 42 when you can buy Huhne at 55. Obviously you’ll be a guaranteed 17 down when one bet ends up at 100 and the other zero, but that’s preferable to being 20 down by selling a bet at 20 less than you paid for it. It also leaves the option of selling later if Campbell’s odds narrow and Huhne’s tighten. Even if you sell him at just 10, that’s still 10 saved on top of the 3 mentioned above.
Of course, this assumes you accept, as I do, that this is a two horse race. If you think Hughes is in with a realistic chance, buying Huhne and selling will not be synonymous.
129 An alternative explanation would be that IBE is the code used for all Independent clients and, having got wind that the first one was being run by a supporter of another camp, they decided to get one of their supporters to commission his own.
The Huhne camp would have been happy with any result that showed him in contention. The fact that he is edging ahead would simply be a bonus.
141 Quite right
That last line should read:
If you think Hughes is in with a realistic chance, buying Huhne and selling Campbell will not be synonymous.
139&44 Daniel- So its down to money or resources, as you put it, nothing to do with policy, ah thats right not decided on them this far from a GE….Yet this far from a GE you want to run scare storys on a guy who MAY become leader, I’m a flaoting voter after voting Lid Dem last time, but you Tories on here really do turn me off!!
145: Valient effort, Val, but sinking … sinking …
144. An appearance in marginal X showed by TV could probably reach more voters than a walk in a street of Eastleigh.
The only problem would be if constituents think he is not interested enough in them.
Andrea - O/T, but have you seen your beloved and most venerable Helen has been getting press over on Recess Monkey?
Plus there is a new photo of her……
http://www.recessmonkey.com/ - scroll down to 2nd and 3rd article today
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/6/6f/Helen_clark.jpg
144 - Precisely - the danger for the LibDems is that that Huhne would be so tied down in his own seat that he would be almost invisible everywhere else. So, even if he keeps his seat, it could be bad for the LibDems everywhere else.
52. Thanks. MilkyBar Kid.
We’ve already noticed the resemblance, but someone here mentioned that PB has more femininity than her!
149. FYI, I actually think Huhne is the most dangerous of the three candidates in overall electoral terms but I don’t think it’s a scare story to suggest that holding onto a majority of 568 in the face of a vigorous campaign by local Conservatives may prove difficult. Besides which, decapitation strategies are hardly a Conservative invention - witness the Liberal Democrats’ 2005 campaign, which you endorsed!
125. Valerie, push-polling is something different, designed to plant negative ideas about a candidate or issue in voters’ minds. It is targeted at all voters (or all swing voters). The results are not analysed or published.
I think this is more a case of creative polling, similar to the polls on fox-hunting where you get very different reesults depending on whether its the Countryside Alliance or the League Against Cruel Sports commissioning the survey and setting the questions, question order and answer options.
This sort of polling is designed to build momentum for a campaign.
149. The sort of people who post on here are generally people who are interested in the electoral mechanics rather than actual policies. The closer you get to campaigns then the further away you get from policy. For too long the Conservative Party thoought it was all about the policies while Labour used sophisticated marketing and campaigning to win. Finally the Conservatives have realised that winning is about clever campaigning not just sayiong this is us - take it or leave it.
150. Not a valiant effort - just what I think.
In what way has Huhne run a good campaign? (apart from saying something about raising fuel taxes at the start).
“Do I look bovered?” : C. Hughne suporters.
The problems for Hughne in Eastleigh include his current friend, momentum, and our old friends UKIP.
Hughne’s vote fell from 40.7% to 38.61 (compared with Chidgey in 2001)…
Conor Burns (Top Tory) increased his vote from 34.27% to 37.47%…
Labour fell from 21.92% to 20.57%.
And the real spanner in the works…
UKIP polled 1,669 votes (3.35%)in 2005 (849 (1.78%) in 2001)
Assuming some uplift for Conor from the Cameron factor, plus the salivating prospect for UKIP voters of helping to pop Brussels Balloon Hughne and you complacent LibDems really ought to start looking bovered.
147 - “An alternative explanation would be that IBE is the code used for all Independent clients…”
I think that’s unlikely. Did you read this part of my previous quote:
“…the code IBE. That’s the first time this has been used in the two years I’ve been a YouGov panelist”
159. apologies for spelling Huhne incorrectly.
159. “Hughne’s vote ”
Is Hughne the secret love child of Chris Huhne and Simon Hughes?
158. The fact that Huhne has risen from complete obscurity to clear front-runner indicates how well his campaign has gone in relation to the other two (three if you include Oaten).
158. Sorry, I don’t mean to give the impression Huhne’s run a bad campaign - I don’t think he has at all - but I don’t think it’s been better than Campbell’s.
Hughes’ has been a little odd…
154 - I think Monkey’s suggestions may have just pushed me into a vow of celibacy…..