Does Blair’s speech mean that he’ll be around a bit longer?
September 26th, 2006
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Could he have greater influence over the succession?
Surely the big political impact of Tony Blair’s extraordinary farewell speech this afternoon is that he, and nobody else, will decide on the precise date when the removal vans will arrive at Number 10?
The “tour de force” and the amazing reception he was given by delegates in Manchester put him in a unique position for the coming months. It’s going to be hard for anybody, particularly Gordon, to put any pressure at all on about the departure date. Blair is there for as long as we wants until next year’s Labour conference.
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My guess is that the coverage of today will give the party a small but significant boost in the polls and this will reinforce Tony’s position. We might even see Labour back into the lead in the October Populus survey for the Times which is due out next week.
Blair’s conciliatory approach to being ousted in the way he was will win him friends and give him an influence on both party and national events that he has not enjoyed since the invasion of Iraq. His standing will increase.
A telling moment this afternoon was the reception he got when he laid into David Cameron. This was probably the most effective attack on the young Tory leader since his election last December and might indicate that there’s trouble ahead for the Tories. As ConservatveHome describes it this afternoon “Blair is our deadliest opponent.”
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Quite who Tony wants to succeed him nobody knows but it is hard to imagine him not having a huge influence. Maybe that’s good for Gordon maybe it’s not.
In the betting PaddyPower has just introduced a market on the actual month of the departure. The prices are Sept 25/1: Oct 14/1: Nov 18/1: Dec 11/1: Jan 11/1: Feb 9/1: Mar 7/1: Apr 6/1: May 11/8: Jun 3/1: July 10/1: Aug 25/1 September 2007 and beyond 10/1.
I quite like the 10/1 on September 2007 and beyond - just in case he decide to bow out just ahead of a new leader being installed at next year’s conference.
The spread market from Cantor Spreadfair on how many weeks Blair’s third term will continue for is now showing a spread of 95 - 100 weeks. Week one began on May 9th 2005 so the buy price starts in the second week of April 2007.
Mike Smithson
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I reckon Blair has done just enough to hang on till his own intended exit date, ie. around July next year.
We always get this kind of nostalgia for an ex leader - I even remember Kinnock getting plaudits after he’d gone. It’s come a bit early for Blair, but when your reputation is at rock bottom, the only way is up.
We’ve had ‘regime change’ in Iraq and now in the Labour party, but I for one am more interested in climate change
With a bit of luck yes. I hope he stays on untill he is dragged out. Infighting within Labour is good for the Conservatives election prospects, and more importantly it will distract them from implementing some very bad poicies.
“..standing will increase”
However, in general “conference bounces ” also tend to be short-lived and to fade fairly quickly from the memory.
No doubt it was an excellent speech but it usually is. I don’t think many laboour supporters underestimate what an outstanding leader he has been both for the Party and the country but I also don’t doubt that the Party are ready for a change. The quality of his speech probably gives him an aura of goodwill that will keep him in good stead until he goes but make no mistake the Party was ready for a change. He’s made some costly mistakes lately that can really only be eradicated with a new leader.
It did sahow that there is only one show in town and I expect the Tories poll ratings to dip back to their 30-32% box as soon as the new leader is in place
He’s resigned to leaving soon. It’s in the public domain, so he has little room for maneuvre. Unless the labour party, as some MP’s admitted immediately after the speech, start to question why they want him to leave, or the public somehow express their desire for him to remain. Much will depend on GB’s polling figures for the next few months. A significant dip in popularity will ensure that other candidates are lined up to contest the leadership election, with TB perhaps caretaking the party until the summer.
He’ll go in May/June 2007….but that’s what I thought before the speech too
4 - There was certainly only one show in Manchester and unfortunately for Labour it’s Tony not Gordon.
The two speeches neatly encapsulated why Blair became leader in the first place and why Labour will miss him when he’s gone. He’s in a different league to every other politician in the country. Even my own beloved Davey-boy!!
5.”ome MP’s admitted immediately after the speech”
who?
7. “Even my own beloved Davey-boy!”
Are you a fan of Ed Davey, Max?
2. It was very interesting watching the Luntz focus group and talking to my two plumbers today. The westminster intrigue surrounding personal relationships and infighting really harms political parties, and so i’m in total agreement with your point. If this caries on the Tories will make significant in roads. GB has been hurt so badly by his behaviour, and that of his acolytes. In the end, it won’t only be policies that affect GB, but the perception of him being dishonest, disloyal and bitter. People can’t stand that.
8 - Clare Short, Glenda Jackson, Chris Bryant and Tom Watson. It really was a very good speech!
9 - Take that back Andrea. I’m not a fan of any Liberal!
11. Max, unlikely Clare would say it…it probably didn’t even watch it in protest.
I just read it….it was good…I would have cheered at some points, not at others.
11. “Clare Short, Glenda Jackson, Chris Bryant”
you’ve to read the spoof diary:
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labourconference2006/story/0,,1881401,00.html
8. Vera Baird was definitley one i saw on news 24. The other MP i can’t remember, i’m pretty sure it was Ian Gibson.
Two plumbers?
16. I follow politics closely. Two plumbers came to my house o fix stuff whilst i was working from home, and they heard the speech on my radio. They both didn’t really mention liking TB, but stated they thought GB was untrustworthy and has behaved badly. I was interested about what has actually stuck in their mind.
14 - In all seriousness I wouldn’t have thought the rest of the conference will be much fun for the people who were plotting to bring Blair down early.
18. Max, think how boring the Tory one can be…I’ll just look Dinky’s speech
15. Thanks, Staynton
I don’t think TB is now under much pressure to go earlier than he’s indicated - in fact I didn’t think so before the speech. I’d assume he’ll hand over sometime between June and September next year, as we shan’t want a leadership election during the local campaign. The logical time to have the leadership election is June, with the new leader either taking over in July before parliament goes into recess, or just after. TB’s hand cannot be forced without an extraordinary conference called by the NEC - always implausible and now extremely hard to imagine. The PaddyPower 25-1 against his resigning in the next 10 days is quite remarkably stingy!
20. Ian Gibson said he was ‘inspired’ by TB, and was considering his past comments that he needed to leave early. He even stated that he was reminded about why he went into politics. I’m not sure how much of a dissenter he is, and how long those feelings will last.
…or rather the next 4 days!!
Ian Gibson is a serious left-winger (though a keen scientist, and not, for instance, anti-GM) and a longstanding critic of TB.
22. He’s a Campaign Grouper…26 rebellions in this parliament (Ecuation Bill, ID cards, Religious Hatread, Terrosim) and more than 50 between 2001 and 2005
24. Nick, I think here we can be in a “I don’t always agree with his policies, but I don’t dislike the man and I recognize he’s a good politician” situation.
Like Jeremy Corbyn being quoted as having a good opinion of Alan Johnson a couple of weeks ago.
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labourconference2006/story/0,,1881568,00.html
The delegate of Islington North has always something to complain
I love the first one though: “More than I expected. I don’t know what I was expecting…”
21 - Did you miss what the whole argument over the last month was all about? Brown sees it as absolutely catastrophic if he has to take over with parliament in recess. He won’t be able to announce a blaze of new measures with everyone on holiday. They’ll be no “hitting the ground running” with a radical “first hundred days”, and the Tories will be able to pick him off at their leisure. And the Labour conference has the potential to be a crisis before he’s even got his feet under the desk.
“Two plumbers? ”
Opposite Poles?
Anyway, re: Blair. Perfect speech as per usual, if you liked his policies then you couldn’t get any better. Even if you don’t you have to admit that it was pitch perfect. Sky, very cruelly put excerpts of Blair and Brown’s speeches next to each other. Brown speaks words but Blair connects to the audience, no amount of coaching can xhange that.
As I posited earlier, labour are going to benefit in the polls between now and next May, I’d say that they will be neck and neck though rather than ahead (once Blair goes and the next leader is in his place labour will fall back markedly however).
28. So what’s the best timeline? The result being announced at the conference at the end of September with Parliament resuming its work at the beginning of October?
29 - Think I should have said ‘his *or her* place’!
31. Are you suggesting you’re unsure if Tony is a man or a woman?
32 his relationship with Peter Mandelson suggests he is all man
Brown wants to have at least a month before the parliamentary recess. That was why we had such a huge row over “not a few years, not a few months, but ‘a few weeks’”.
Anyway on the speech, the Labour Party will realise in a few days that they’ve been duped again as usual. The Labour Party’s problem isn’t that they have a leader who can’t make a conference speech. Their problem is that there is a whole section of the electorate who will not vote Labour again until Blair goes, and possibly until their foreign policy is decisively changed. There will be a shortlived euphoria and then they’ll start the infighting all over again.
34- maybe they should pass that reform to cut recess days.
I HATE politicians who lie about opinion polls. It’s dumb and stupid because it only takes a few second to check.
Jack Straw has just said on Channel 4 that Labour was at least 20% ahead in the polls from 1992 to the 1997 election. Rubbish Straw.
My quick count of Guardian ICM polls (check here) shows Labour with a lead of more than 20% in four of the 49 months.
Maybe Mori is his preferred pollster. You get too worked up Mike.
Tomorrow’s Morning Star headline: “Let this be the end of Blairism”
Then they’ve a piece called “The Monster that awaits (pic of Gordon)- Vince Mills on new Labour’s Frankestein future”
I forgot to say it yesterday (but probably no-one care..), Brown looked silly when he was doing those “thank you” at the end of his speech
Alex. Here we go again, the whole foreign policy must change business. Blair was in the foreign policy mire in 2005, he got in again with a workable majority even though many on the left sat at home. He still did the business which means plenty of people in the middle stayed with him. He didn’t need the harder left.
That harder left-wing block are not the most important group in the country and never will be. They are the biggest moaners over foriegn policy. They’d hate to be geneuinely in danger of being succesful anyway, it wouldn’t suit them,it would send them en masse to the psychiatrist. They like being on the outside, lots of moaning, no responsibility or power. Serial losers that just move one issue to the next to shout ’shame’ over.
Labour won the last election for one reason - because of the Conservative Party. I reckon that was the first counter example of the old adage - “Oppositions don’t win elections, govts lose them”.
Alan Milburn is drunk.
39-Yokel
‘That harder left-wing block are not the most important group in the country and never will be. They are the biggest moaners over foriegn policy. They’d hate to be geneuinely in danger of being succesful anyway, it wouldn’t suit them,it would send them en masse to the psychiatrist. They like being on the outside, lots of moaning, no responsibility or power. Serial losers that just move one issue to the next to shout ’shame’ over.’
A good description of the Lib Dems.
It seems that the conference voted for the so called “fourth option” in the housing debate (resolution proposed by Gravesham CLP). They went to the card vote, so the result is still not known, but it seems that Gravesgam CLP motion won. The government will naturally ignore it.
38 - Opposition to this government’s foreign policy comes from left, right and centre.
Hmmm I seem to recall predictions that John Reid’s terrorism speech might project Labour back into the lead in the polls as well…so I have my doubts about Mike’s speculation on that point. I wonder also if the latest snub to Brown won’t embolden his supporters into more attempts at destabilisation in the months to come.
41. John -
Was that thing organized, spontaneous or organized, but wanted to look spontaneous (and so the placards looked so bad)?
http://cache.gettyimages.com/xc/72003057.jpg?v=1&c=MS_GINS&k=2&d=17A4AD9FDB9CF19390335F8FA9CA92A6B2DBB84442A55815329DF394FE942516
Was Tessa sleeping?!
http://editorial.gettyimages.com/source/search/details_pop.aspx?iid=72003015&cdi=0
Some people seem to be getting carried away with one good speech by TB and nostalgia . The fact is that his net approval ratings this month in various surveys have been -30 and worse and the reasons for those poor ratings have not been blown away with one speech . Any improvement is not likely to be more than short-term .
47 - quite.
The buy bet on Cantor Spreadfair for number of weeks of Blair’s 3rd term looks very attractive to me but sadly I do not have enough funds to make that sort of bet .
Labour won the last election with 36% of the vote on a 60% turnout. If ever a situation was ripe for Positive campaigning to succeed this is it. It’ll be very interesting to see if Cameron campaigns at the next election in the spirit of this years locals. There is no need to negatively attack Labour any more.
47. But his net approval ratings in the hall are huge. To the delegates, it doesn’t matter about the country outside - well, not yet anyway. Once they have to start campaigning for the May elections it might be a different story.
It’s certainly a good job for Gordon Brown that Tony Blair made a speech of that quality and not anyone else. It is of course easier for Blair who is going and has now got all the goodwill usually handed to the ex-leader, but had Reid or Johnson carried the hall in the same way, Brown would now be under serious pressure.
Alex at 40. Ok sure the Tories weren’t up to the job in the eyes of the masses, but the point is that plenty of the classic ’swing’ voters, those Labour converted in 97 must have stayed with Blair if much of Labour’s harder left stayed at home or peeled off.
Those swing voters could have sat at home or voted Tory but clearly plenty of them put the x beside Labour again. If they’d been that miffed over foreign policy Tony would have been out.
Paul @ 43, to some extent but the left are the biggest block in the anti war movement by a long way. I’ve stressed before and I’ll stress again I’m not convinced its the Blair ‘lie’ or the following of George Bush that actually upsets many,. its the fact that they took over without a plan and made a hash of it. Again if lots of people in the centre left/right had been that upset at the whole business Tony would have resigned ages ago because he would have lost the election.
The whole lies and Bush’s poodle business is driven by the harder left core of the Stop the War movement or as I call them, the whinge addiction & lack of self esteem brigades, poor dears. Even if there was a post war plan and it excecuted well they’d still be going on about it whilst many others currently opposed to the war outside that harder left grouping wouldnt really be bothered that much by the apparent lies or the cheek by jowl with Bush approach because it was a success.
Mike at 36. If you use MORI polls Straw isn’t far from the truth. From 94-98 Labour were never less than 20 points ahead often over 30 points ahead. If I remember at that time MORI were considered the Rolls Royce of polls.
52. The problem for Labour is that in the mid 90’s they build a broad church coalition from swing voters on the centre ground to the hard-left passing through the Guardianistas in Hampstead. Now that coalition is losing parts here and there and it’s very difficult to keep it together.
As long as the tories stayed in low 30% it was easy to keep a working majority…but now the tories are a bit up, I think it’s a difficult task to keep it.
As to how long Blair stays - it depends on what happens between now and next summer. If there are no more mistakes as during the summer, and everyone behaves, then he’s welcome to pick his date and leave anytime he pleases. Especially if he uses his remaining time to tear into Cameron.
It was a really good speech, it lifted everyone watching (not just those in the hall). You could feel the confidence surging back into the party, esp when he attacked Cameron; the blood is up, and suddenly we’ve rediscovered the taste for the only blood sport we are into - destroying Tories. If he goes in the summer, he’ll have a full parliament to humiliate Cameron - the ultimate gift to the labour party. That would be leaving in style!
4-Roger. “I expect the Tory poll ratings to dip back to their 30-32% box once the new leader is in place”.
If the Labour leadership are as clueless as yourself in reading public opinion then their poll ratings are likely to fall even further as a result of their policies that they base on it.
55- Snowflake5. You are somewhat deluded in your prediction of Blair leaving in style.
I like all this wild optimism from Labour posters. Reminds me of a complete bozo doing an audition on the X-factor who says ” I am the one, I will win the X-Factor”. Then you laugh at just how awful their attempt at singing is!
55 - Meanwhile, on planet earth, the rest of us hope that Blair now spends the rest of his time governing the country, putting past mistakes right and fulfilling at least some of the promise of 1997.
Your tone suggets that you still don’t understand what this has all been about.
58 - Rubbish! We’ve allready established that snowflake speaks for the entire British public and is never wrong avout anything.
57. DC - he already is leaving in style. Constrast the great good-bye speech he made to conference (complete with “I love this party”) to Mrs T’s tearful leaving speech outside No 10, or Charlie Kennedy’s sad I’m resigning speech.
Also, something happened today. There’s a sense the public agreed with his characterisation of David Cameron. It marks a turning point. Cameron’s honeymoon is well and truly over. And Blair is going to take him down before he goes (one last scalp for his belt).
59- Indeed Max. It is everyone else who is always wrong and needs correcting…and patronising…
60 “Also, something happened today. There’s a sense the public agreed with his characterisation of David Cameron. ”
What evidence do you have to support that? By the way, how many Babychams have you drunk this evening…..
60 - Snowflake why is you totally ignore all the evidence that suggests DC is viewed fairly well by the public compared to TB and GB and yet seize on a totally unscientific viewers panel?
Or is this just you continuing your belief that you speak for the entire nation?
62 - I believe that The Daily Politics’ viewer perception concept indicated this.
Clearly, David Cameron is finished.
Frank - their was an analysis of a viewers panel that showed a positive reaction to the attacks on DC. The fact that their was so much cheering in the hall would do nothing to influence audience reaction I’m sure.
This (along with the Mori poll) invalidates all contradictory eveidence.
DC. If you look at the equivalent polls between 93-4 and 97-8 and compare them with now I thgink your confidence might evaporate. Some people think the Tories have hit respectability in the polls because of Cameron. I think they’re just benefitting from the shambolic behaviour of the Labour Party.
Though I quite like Cameron’s direction It isn’t a view that’s shared by people I know who might vote Tory. When Labour regain their composure and elect a new leader I just cant see an apetite for a Blair Mark 2 and certainly not if he’s leading the Tory Party.
60- Fantastic form Snowflake!
…and then once Cameron has to resign as he cannot match Blair or Brown, the Conservative party disbands and Brown is Prime Minister for twenty years…
65. Clearly more scientific than all of those polls over the last 6 months indicating the opposite.
60 - Snowflake; Blair hasn’t resigned yet. Expect a slightly less joyous occasion when he travels to the Queen to hand in his resignation as Prime Minister.
Andrea, there seems to be, amongst some Labour activists, this idea of taking strong measures on policy to galvanise the core vote again. Almost certainly that means a noticeable swing left. If this is done, the people in the middle that Blair converted may well leave in sufficient numbers for Brown to have a short tenure.
It’s this sense of the party wanting to reconnect with its core via policy changes that will likely be the death of its electoral chances. This is a different era from 97 when Blair could bring the left and the centre with him. People were desperate to dump the Tories. Blair didn’t do or say anything rash and engaged the centre. Secondly few on the left in that coalition really cared or knew how Blair would turn out, it was all about getting The Tories out and at that time they took Blair’s approach.
This is 2006, that coalition will not be regained based on what seems to the aim of many in the Labour Party, where a move from Blair is considered a move left in substance. The centre will not just go with Labour this time because the circumstances are very very different from 97. Labour is likely to face a choice. Move left and gain much of that block of support back or retain the centre but with slightly more a hint of pink tinge in order to pull some of the disillusioned back but acknowledging that they’ll not get many of them to return. One of these approaches is clearly more likely to win them the election.
It may well be that very little needs to be done to bring many of of that disenchanted core back: A new leader who isnt Tony, Bush’s departure, a Tory party with a fair chance of winning, troops steadily withdrawing from Iraq, more money pumped into the NHS & education and a few red tinged social policy & engineering initiatives that are really tinkering rather than fundanmental.
Some of these are already happening and have little to do with polocy substance. Thus many unhappy Labour people will very possibly start to drift back with minimal effort or change of policy. What I seeing is many in Labour, in their navel gazing phase at the moment, suggesting a shunt left on the overall policy side. If that occurs they may forget it, they’ll be out.
What is John Hutton up to? We’ve had the Times interview, talking about deprived childhood, the death of his young son etc. This morning on Today he talked about a challenger for Brown, but when pressed on whether it would be him, he resorted to a well-rehearsed soundbite which committed himself to nothing, nor ruled himself in or out.
Anytime he drifts above 60-1 on Betfair, it disappears very quickly. Ok it’s small amounts, but it seems many believe he could end up being the challenger, even though he will need to undergo a big transformation before the public (a la cameron) to stand a chance.
66 - Roger I think that’s one of the interesting things about looking at the polls just now. There is an assumption that the governing party will always make a comeback and therefore the main opposition has to be ahead by 15-20%.
The only problem with this is that the Tories haven’t had a remote chance of winning an election (from opposition) since the late 1970’s so it’s hard to tell if these rules still hold true.
I’m not sure how Labour were polling from 2001-2003 but I don’t recall their vote increasing much in 2004-2005.
66- Roger. Lets have this chat in two weeks or so when we have some polls after all three conferences.
If any ICM poll between now and next September has the Conservatives on less than 33%, I will go down to Worthing and walk topless along the beach within the same week with just two blue rosettes preserving my modesty, canvassing for the Conservative party, regardless of the time of year!!!
60. Just as many people would agree generally with the Tory claim that Blair is a disingenious spin merchant and Brown has the statemanship & leadership qualities of my next door neighbour Jeff…
No disrespect Snowflake but history suggests that people with a grip on the hard nature of politics and who are prepared to acknowledge reality as it is, even if it is through gritted teeth, help their parties win elections, those who don’t will help their parties lose them. Nothing personal, just an observation.
I’m not to sure I understand the term ‘hard left’ anymore. Once upon a time it described those in the Labour Party, who looked to the Soviet block for inspiration, don’t think there are too many of those around. If those who oppose Blair’s support of American foreign policy, can think of plenty on the right who would fill that description, including many Conservative posters to this site.
An ICM poll out tomorrow in the Guardian shows Labour on 37% Tories on 31% Lib Dems on 23%.
Cheltboy, as a you say small amounts at that price are moving Hutton’s odds. I’m guessing some people must be trying to take a no lose position, gettig him at big odds for a small outlay. If he stands his his odds drop fairly heavily and they are perhaps hoping to lay off later. Otherwise I can’t see any other logic behind his back and forth movement in the market. If he was a definitely going to challenge and b) a heavyweight the money would have been in and 60/1 would have gone a long time ago so I’m guessing the 60/1 is like a little psychological level, worth some people putting a few quid a go. Could well be the same people dipping in each time.
76 - well, that’s just silly. Obviously these so-called pollsters with their fancy methodology weren’t watching the Daily Politics’ viewer perceptions today, or they’d never come out with such rubbish.
75…anyone who consistently supports causes that don’t ultimately succeed….unless it suits the USA to let them succeed. Oh the irony….
78 - I think he is pulling your chain!!
If 76 is true off too Worthing right now digital camera in hand.
79 its a joke! - there is no such poll - see 73
76- You are joking… I hope! …Better check the weather forcast. It was good today.
82- Phew!
When you think of what could have happened in the last three days in Manchester, it may be that Labour is pulling together to avoid tipping into ‘cannot win’ quagmire.
76: Labour on 37% Tories on 31% Lib Dems on 23%.
in that case cameron the chamelion’s honey-moon is well and truley over - the people have seen new labour united once more with the orderly transition from blair to brown and like what they see - this is an absolue distaster from cameron and the tories - i predict plots to oust the leader at the coming tory party conference that will make the ousting of IDS look like a picnic.
86- It is a joke! Thank goodness…
12 - surely … you don’t mean you’re not a fan of Churchill?
86 see 73 then 76 then 81 its what in the real world is called a joke.
70. Yokel, I haven’t said they should move to the Left to have successes electorally.
The “slightly more a hint of pink tinge in order to pull some of the disillusioned back but acknowledging that they’ll not get many of them to return” approach you suggest, I think, it works better when you’re in opposition since 1979 than when you’ve ruled for 3 terms (and that’s why DC can pursue the centre without losing the right even it they’re disappointed).
As you said the change of leader can actually help itself though because everyone can project everything they like in the new one (at least for the short-term).
I suppose the new leader should try to balance holding the centre ground in economic issues (probably what matters the most to people in the end) with eye-catching initiatives in fields like environment or the Lords reform to please the left
He has to go soon otherwise Rupert might give his job to sombody else…
Anyone else seen the Times / Populus ‘Message Meter’ on Comment Central? http://timesonline.typepad.com/comment/ - like the Frank Luntz focus group you can do yourself.
Why does Mike keep finding pictures of Blair doing ‘Celebrity Saviour’ impressions?
The Paddy Powwer market on Blair’s month of departure “Applies to the date Tony Blair ceases to be officially the Prime Minister. If the Deputy Prime Minister should take control then this date shall be determined the offical day.”
As we know, it will take around eight weeks to complete a Labour leadership election. My view is that if Blair goes at a time of his own choosing he will stand down as Labour leader in order to trigger the leadership contest, but will remain PM until his successor is elected. If this is the case it makes May rather unlikely as the leadership election would then coincide with the Easter recess and the May elections campaign. The 11/8 odds are poor value.
I don’t agree with alex @ 28 that the recent kerfuffle was over the exact month. Blair’s people had been saying that he would be gone within a year but this wan’t enough for those who wanted Blair himself to say so in public. Now that he has, and Brown’s ratings have suffered from the public perception that he was behind a coup attempt, the incentive for further attempts to bring forward the departure date is much reduced.
I think Nick Palmer is right in suggesting July as the most likely date and 10/1 looks good, perhaps better than the 10/1 on Tony making it all the way to next September.
One caveat, Paddy Power have confused Deputy Leader with Deputy PM before and I don’t think its the first time a market has been removed then come back under different terms.
btw, if anyone with a head for odds is looking at Paddy Power can they work out if there is any profit in covering the ranges 3-7 or 3-6 in the PDs seats market?
90, i wasnt suggesting you did. Indeed I wasn’t disagreeing with what you said at all…..my point was that that coalition of 97 is probably not going to be able to be re-created because circumstances have changed so much.
95. Yokel, sorry. I think we can agree on this, I suppose (at least about being more difficult now than in 1997).
93 it isn’t a saviour pose he was singing….My Little Swaneee. What the still doesn’t show is his hands were doing a little wavy shake.
“I suppose the new leader should try to balance holding the centre ground in economic issues (probably what matters the most to people in the end) with eye-catching initiatives in fields like environment or the Lords reform to please the left.”
Alternatively, he could join the Liberal Democrats as he would be implementing their policies. Or at least acknowledge his sources
96. Nothing to be sorry about just the wonder of interpretation
97 -
Known in the business as ‘Jazz Hands’.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jazz_hands
98. Tabman, ok, you’ve Sedgemore now, but you should stop to copy the Campaign Group policies
The enviroment has become a “must” for all parties now!
Well, I’ve now caught up with the whole speech.
I have to (grudgingly) admit that it really was Blair at his best. His speech-making skills are far above anything else in the Labour party. And that is the nub of their problem - the contrast with Gordon’s stilted and flat effort yesterday.
I do think it is beginning to dawn on them that they are about to ditch their most successful election-winner for someone who all the polls say will not win them the next election. And that is why the strife will continue afte rthis week - GB knows that as each week passes the contrast between him and Blair will be all the more visible, and a heavyweight Blairite candidate gains ground.
His greatest chance is an early handover. But party rules and a newly emboldened Blair are set against him.
It’s going to be a fun ride.
98-Tabman. Isn’t it great that you know who doesn’t get a mention on here any more. OMCS/CDS is going just dandy and we got him through last week no problem at all…
Interesting comment from the unbelieveably cheery Anita Anand on 5Live that she noticed a fair few people leaving the conference hall muttering pretty much ‘what have we done?’ after Blair’s speech.
I’d be very unlikely to ever back Labour when it came to voting (though a pledge to bring Curly Wurly’s back to the same size they were when I was a kid would tempt me) but I’d agree with them.
204. “she noticed a fair few people leaving the conference hall muttering pretty much ‘what have we done?’ after Blair’s speech.”
It was Cherie!
(did anyone look at what Sarah Brown did? if she was there, did she laugh at Cherie running away with the block next door comment?)
Btw, isn’t it all a bit cyclic? Blair arrives at the conference under pressure…he makes a good speech….the pressure goes away….then after a few months it all starts again…and so on.
105. Block rather than Bloke is a good describtion of him Andrea.
94 - you must have been oit of the cointry when the Sun “announced” the departure date of May 31st and Brownites were all over the media sayiing “not good enough”. The quote about “not years, months, but weeks” etc was from a “neutral” labour backbencher, Tony Wright, on the radio.
106 Andrea… you think he’ll get a few month’s respite? I doub’t it’ll last til the end of the month.
Andrea - yes, I wonder how fresh this speech will all be in the memory come May.
100. See thats what I love about the world and people. Someone has created a Wiki entry on the phenomenon of Jazz hands AND someone searched for it.
It goes into technique and everything….surely you must, must shake the hands
107. ops, DC. I swear it was unintentional
109. Robin, as Kevin said earlier, Brown was damaged because he looked like he wanted to knife him, so I don’t think he’ll try again soon.
Then poor old Wolfgang didn’t like Blair even today, but it’s not a problem in the big game of things.
11 - Well there’s the great Jazz Hands schism, to shake or not to shake. Jolson tended to just splay the fingers but a revisionist like Bob Fosse virtually cemented the finger wiggling in the public’s mind.
103 - given the polls, OCSM / CGPR is going even better.
112 But that is his dilemma Andrea. He failed (yet again) at the most recent attempt, but every week that passes by, his chances of a successful or smooth handover diminish. Oh what *will* he do?
I had a very interesting chat yesterday afternoon with the wife of one of the PPSs who resigned. Now I am posting under my full name I can’t divulge details, but they do seem perplexed at the cold shoulder that many in party is giving them now. Can’t imagine why…
x92 Lance - That is dynamite. You even get to see the results immediately after taking part. At the moment participants turn their noses up at Blair giving Brown credit and rally when he goes on to attack the Conservatives.
106 - of course Andrea. And Labour supplryers and the media fall for it every time. One attack on Cameron and Labour are reunited again in a sense of purpose! John Hutton’s antics show that some people rease that all in the garden is not rosy.
People should cast their mind back to what Conservative supporters were thinking after Thatcher’s final Commons speech in 1990. And at least they had a new leader they were pretty happy with!
94 Blair and New Labour…06′ Fosse and New Jazz Hands
Btw, I hope Dennis Skinner hasn’t anything serious and he’ll recover soon to be ready to be thrown out of the Commons again.
116 - I don’t know the Populus sample size when I completed it, but the most pronounced part of the “all participants” chart that I could see was the score drop like a stone from 60 to 40 when he mentioned/praised GB’s part in New Labour.
In fact the only other time the score dropped sharply to this low, was when he praised Cherie!
108. Alex, I think the “not good enough” referred to the lack of a public pronouncement. Tony Wright may have been worried about his seat, despite the healthy 20% majority it has been moving demographically away from Labour for some time. The defeat of Jennie Lee in 1970 and the victory of the moderate compassionate liberal conservative Gerald Howarth in 1983 were among the more surprising results of those elections.
120. “I could see was the score drop like a stone from 60 to 40 when he mentioned/praised GB’s part in New Labour. ”
maybe people don’t believe TB praising GB as much as they don’t believe GB praising TB.
122. “the victory of the moderate compassionate liberal conservative Gerald Howarth in 1983″
Do you mean the Gerald Howarth who now sits for Aldershot was a liberal conservative? The same one who was one of the strongest opponent in the Commons of the equal age of consent and of lifting the ban for gay people to serve in the military forces? Without forgetting when he was outraged by Mandelson’s boyfriend getting a British passport.
If so, thankfully he was a liberal!
124 - Andrea I’m pretty sure he was being ironic!
124. Sorry Andrea. I have lived abroad and I can get by in four or five languages, but irony, parody and sarcasm don’t translate too well. Thankfully they are a speciality of the Brits (and Irish), so we don’t get tripped up so often.
124 - must be another one, Andrea! The Guardian Aristotle describes your Gerald Howarth as a hard right radical
123 - It’s OK Andrea, the whole comment confused me totally as well
125/26. Ok, I’ve made my gaffe of the day!
I often fail to catch jokes!
The gushing this evening over Blair’s typically good performance is a joke - as though everything is forgiven because he’s a good orator. People, this is how we got INTO this mess in the first place! We are like the batter wife who just cant resist him every time he turns on the charm.
It reminds me of a Simpsons episode where they remember Sideshow Bob:
Homer: Pfft. That Sideshow Mel think’s he’s so big. Whatever happened
to Sideshow Bob?
Lisa: Don’t you remember Dad?
[flash to quick scenes of each]
He framed Krusty, he tried to kill Aunt Selma, he rigged an election.
Bart: And he tried to murder me.
Homer: [in present] Oh yeah. But what I’ll mainly remember is the
laughter.
My reading of the situation was that the Brownites were not in the least bit happy with a July departure date, but had to settle for what they got when they realised that a public pronouncement that he Blair would be gone within a year was the best they were going to get. The theory that the ‘point’ of the coup was simply to get this commitment out of him is laughable - at its height the plan was for him to be gone within weeks.
When the ceasefire was called there remained Brownites (and supporters in the cabinet) swarming all over the media saying that all the ‘logic’ suggested that Blair would have to announce his departure in late April/early May, giving his successor time to bed in before the recess. They are also expecting this timetable to be announced sometime in the new year. Any signs that Blair will change the plan, again, and the civil war will start again. The only way he will make it to May31st is if the elections go reasonably well against all the odds.
130-Mark. One of the best posts I have ever seen on PB.C
Worthy of being the 300,000th.
And of course if Homer were British, he would be a typical Labour voter…
131. why did the coup at one point stopped? Because they realized they weren’t able to succeed? For ex the letter from the 2005 intake was apparently never sent in the end.
Anything involving Homer is good..anyway Homer voted for Sideshow Bob who stood as a republican….not the first he voted republican either if my knowledge is correct.
Is anyone aware of any betting prices for the Labour Deputy Leadership?
Jonny, William Hill had a market up
135. William Hill and Ladbrokes are offering odds on the Deputy race:
34- Ah but here he would be Labour through and through. He is daft enough to think he is better off under them. He would calculate how much beer, fags and pizzas his tax credits would get him without realising he is having to pay more tax elsewhere. Barney would be another one and Cletus for sure!
What would Ned Flanders be? Con, Lib or maybe Green?
135. Paddy Power has it up again, but I don’t see much value there. Harman might come in, don’t underestimate the sisterhood. Beckett won 26-12 against Prscot.
Ned Flanders is ‘liberal Christian Conservative’. We met one on holiday. He was very ‘nice’ and liked people of all races as long as they were Christian, but he made sure that his kids were well informed of the hierarchies of society (God, Jesus, The Bible, The POTUS, The Stars and Stripes Father (himself),Grandfather,Uncle,Grandmother & Mother in that order). Made Dave look sensible…
What a speech.
Really really good. Blew Brown out of the water. Even marginally better than Ming’s mighty oration last week. (Where Chelsea are marginally better than Grimsby.)
ID cards and foreign policy not for me thanks, but I can’t help but admire the vision and leadership he has shown.
I was however struck by how many of the real achievements he listed were first term though. Pretty much everything since then has been controversial to the point of not being ready to look back on them as crowning achievements.
And I thought that his quality of oration merely highlighted that no-one else in his party could match him. Like it or not, the next leader is destined to be remembered unfavourably compared to Blair. That may be Blair’s ultmiate legacy. But while we wait on that one, I’m looking forward to hearing Johnson’s speech. Wonder what Cherie will have to say on that….
Anyone else taken part in the new survey on ConHom? If so, what was your impression of the questions and answers on offer?
141.” Blew Brown out of the water. Even marginally better than Ming’s mighty oration last week”
Ming wasn’t better than Brown IMO.
40- I hate DC. (don’t really like your name..) Ned Flanders is a very nice and decent man who cares for one’s fellow man regardless of religion. He showers the Simpsons in kindness and you could hardly say Homer was a Christian.
Ok he is a bit naive as lazy folk take advantage of his good nature but I would welcome him as my neighbour.
142 - Are you referring to the way they are written as to elicit responses which, when published, will be presented as unhelpful/resistant to David Cameron? I’d say that was typical.
142. Yes I did it earlier this evening. Ringing endorsements given by myself.
I didn’t comment there on the questions and answers on offer but I did feel there could have been a wider scope.
145. Yep, I was uncomfortable with a couple of questions in the last two surveys but this one felt like it had been comissioned by the TPA! I actually did not finish the survey because I was uncomfortable with the choice of answers on offer which IMHO were very limited.
146 - DC, I wonder if you would mind emailing me on alastairmatlock at gmail.com? Thanks.
147 - I completed the survey anyway. It is about the only way of demonstrating that the nutters who post there are not representative of the party as a whole.
148- Will do tomorrow Alastair.
Oh yes they are, Matlock!
149 - Excellent.
Ahh, the entertainment has arrived!
The entertainment always arrives at the same time as yourself, AH Matlock! But always!
Darren - No need to run naked through the streets of Worthing - quite enough with a blue bikini with five Tory battleaxes - the worthy (Worthing) citizens will be terrified……
It won’t happen Sage because we will not poll below 33%. And it was not naked or on the streets. I’m going have to try and get a new bikini with the new logo on…