Was the Independent “conned” on the Harman poll?
November 27th, 2006
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YouGov’s actual figures were neutral for Harriet and bad for Brown
We’ve now got the full data from this morning’s poll by YouGov that was reported in the Indpendent - and my warning that “.. we need to see the full detail of how the survey was carried out before coming to firm conclusions” could not have been more right.
For the actual numbers do show that 15% of respondents said they were “much more” or a “little more” likely to vote Labour if Gordon Brown was leader and Harriet Harman was deputy.
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But here’s the rub. The Harman spinners conveniently ignored that an equal proportion, 15% - said they would be LESS LIKELY to vote Labour with these two in the job.
When the Brown-Benn option was put 12% said more likely and 12% less likely. All the other candidates reported negatives when paired with Brown. Hain was 9%-16%; Blears was 8-16%; Johnson 8%-17%; and Cruddas 6-14%.
So not one of the pairings involving Gordon Brown showed any extra potential support for Labour. The best that could be said was that Benn and Harman would have a neutral affect.
To each of the pairings 15 or 16% said the line-up would make no difference because they would vote Labour anyway and in each case 43% of respondents said that would not vote Labour anyway. The “we’ll vote Labour” anyway numbers look remarkably small.
The Independent which carried the story this morning should have asked a few more questions. The actual figures suggest that they might have been conned.
Mike Smithson
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Perhaps all HH really wants is to take over Tessa Jowell’s job of fibber-in-chief about the dome when she finally goes down the plughole?
Meanwhile, back in reality-land, Labour’s secret weapon unfolds. Step forward Melanie Phillips of the Daily Mail, to whom the mention of ‘Polly T@ynb##’ is like the reddest of rags to bulls.
“Now an opinion poll suggests that Mr Cameron’s progress may be stalling. If so, this is undoubtedly because people can see through the spin. They don’t want Blue Labour; and they will never trust politicians speaking out of both sides of their mouths.
Throwing Cameroon stardust in people’s eyes may work for a while. But the British are not likely to buy a Polly in a poke. If they can vote for the organ-grinder, after all, why elect the monkey? It’s enough to make a dinosaur laugh.”
And that was just the mild bit. Of course this ‘re-branding’ is what the Chameroen wants, isn’t it? All the died-in-the-wool Tories will vote for him anyway, won’t they? UKIP must be rubbing their hands!
You’ve got to wonder just how meaningful this poll was. I mean, outside of us political anoraks, who gives a stuff? Take the response to John Cruddas, for example. Six months ago even I had never heard of him. How many non-politicos would recognise him even now?
It’s a bit of a non-poll, isn’t it? Maybe it’s helped HH, but otherwise it surely doesn’t mean much.
“YouGov’s actual figures were neutral for Harriet and bad for Brown”
How do you know it’s Brown who is lowering the figures and not all the deputies considering it wasn’t never named alone?
I’m not arguing that your interpretation is true or not, but that it’s an interpretation and not a fact.
I am afraid that Austin Mitchell has forever made this contender ‘ Harriet Harperson’ and her tendency to be a barker for any passing politically correct line is still a dominant characteristic despite attempts to soften her image. Her current campaign seems based on a sexist premise that is very 90’s in concept.
HH and The Clunking Fist: an election losing combination if ever there was one. A pair of tired old pols as a ‘new’ team? A finger wagging deputy to The Clunking Fist trying to sell more GBH. A general election gift to the Tories.
Yeah, all this Toynbee stuff has been followed by, “oh well may be a 35 hour is a good idea” and then Cameron snubs the CBI.
Whatever happennd to dog whistle politics? Strikes me that there could be a real surge to UKIP. If I were Tory I would be leading a mob with pitchforks and flaming brands to the Witney Conservative Club.
I will be voting for benn!! Personally i think that he should stay in his current role but move to dpm, thus signiling a re orientation of forieng policy. Putting international development at the heart of our foriegn policy would help get back some of those 4 million that left us at the last election.
It would also combine well with brown as this is also a big thing of his. In addition to this it would help test cameron to see how far he is prepared to come. Instead of aiming for 0.7% of gdp, aim for upwards of 1% and see if cameron can follow.
So thats it, Red Flag is declaring his Brown - Benn dream ticket!!!!
“I would be leading a mob with pitchforks and flaming brands to the Witney Conservative Club.”
With or without ‘hoodies’? As long as you buy doubles I am sure your custom would be welcome!
2. As far as the big picture goes, it’s pretty meaningless. But - and it’s a Prescott-sized but - the people who will vote for the candidates contain a larger proportion of anoraks, and even more importantly the people who will nominate the candidates - the MPs - will have an even higher anorak quota. They will notice polls like this (it’s their jobs on the line after all), and ought to be influenced by the results.
If a candidate can’t get the nominations, s/he can’t stand; to get the nominations there must be credibility. Polls like this can build or damage credibility with the people that matter.
If you were a Conservative, you’d be delighted to be in the lead all the time and with 316 shiny new councillors.
But I know electoral success is not something you’re hugely familiar with…
4. Blue2Win, do you dream Gordon Brown even at night?!
)
(I once dreamed him actually
“To each of the pairings 15 or 16% said the line-up would make no difference because they would vote Labour anyway and in each case 43% of respondents said that would not vote Labour anyway”
are there any past surveys to somehow compare those figures to?
As Mike Smithson noted, 15/16 seem indeed low
Nick Palmer from the last thread. Thank you for your response.
I am, i have to say, terribly surprised and shocked, nay, upset that so many people at Westminster just don’t care. Don’t you care where all that taxpayers subsidy is going? We must be on to our 4th peace dividend or something………..any chance of a 5th?
Re: Peter Hain. Looking at the allegations, if it was a minister on the UK mainland, there’d be more calls for his or her head. Politicians have been turfed out or resigned over less. I have no idea if the inquiry/review will be held soon or not for a while but the judge who ruled on it in the High Court really did dissect the case and it wasn’t pretty. I do understand that being a strange a distant part of the world, the good people at Westminster I suspect have not spotted the potential significance, yet. It does have the appearance of being a slow burner that will blow up leaving many people very surprised.
On paper he could be in for a very rough ride indeed. The only call for his head has been a Welsh Tory MP and I suspect some more Tories will pick up on it shortly. Surprisingly enough, no one prominent has opened their mouths here, there’s be so many side deals that no one wants to rock the boat, too many fingerprints (pardon me for my cynicism).
I took odds on Hain for the Deputy Leadership largely because it was outstanding value and it allowed me the possibility of hedging but I’d be dubious of betting on him if this inquiry is going to report before the Deputy Leaderhip election.
4
Hard by any stretch of the imagination to see Harman as an electoral asset,as everyone knows its almost impossible to be sacked from Blair’s cabinet,and yet she managed it.
How could a member of the Labour party consider voting for someone that fights on a manifesto to close Grammar schools and then,when elected sends her son to one.
Gwyneth Dunwoody would surely have more electoral appeal than Harman.
Hain’s going to be up to eyes in it when the Tories, Plaid and Lib Dems get going. He’s easy meat and seems increasingly unpopular in Northern Ireland. Will it impact on the Deputy Leadership contest, dunno. Falling asleep in meetings with the relatives of terrorist victims doesn’t help his credibility though:
http://www.sundaylife.co.uk/news/story.jsp?story=701340
Harman - typical Labour “Do as I say and not do as I do”.
It looks like Jackie Ashley was conned as well - although maybe in her case, she is happy to be conned. This is what she wrote:
“Nearly 30% said electing her would make them more likely to vote Labour, 10 points ahead of the next candidate for the deputy leadership, Benn.”
Also interesting question at the end, asking about whether the dep leader should be someone that people have heard of. Suppose that this is meant to be an anti Cruddas question, but think that it is significant that there is no question testing public recognition in itself.
8 Yes, I take your point, David. Personally I think she would be a disater but then as you correctly point, me and thee do not have a vote.
16
‘It looks like Jackie Ashley was conned as well’
That wouldn’t be difficult.
14. I suspect the Lib Dems at a national level will say little and leave it to the their Welsh reps to stick the boot in.
Plaid, for sure, they’ll have a go at their part time Minister.
As for the Tories I don’t know how much they’d want to rev up their attack on him.
Strangely enough, Hain seems to have attracted relatively little anger from the politicians here compared to some of the rage that has hit NI Secretaries over the years. Again, I suspect the side dealings are preventing them going in hard on him. Amongst the public, however, I’d agree this man is not that popular. There is a genuine feeling amongst many (me included) that he’s come in like some viceroy to deal with the natives, wheeling and dealing with the local chiefs and getting Tony his deal.
Just to add to my last post.
The spinners have definately conned Ashley. She has written that 30 percent are more likely to vote lab with her as dep. Absolute rubbish. 15 percent said it would make no difference, as they would vote lab anyway. 15 percent said it would make them more likely, and the same again less likely. So at best Harman would make no difference at all - but the negative feelings were much stronger against her, than in favour; so she is probably just less of a drag than the other candidates polled.
If anyone actually knows Ashley, would they ask her whether she was either complicent in this polling lie, or she had the findings misrepresented to her?
jackie.ashley@guardian.co.uk
I’m gonna email her, others should too.
11. One query on Teather, do you have the numbers she needs in Brent Central in terms of Labour converts assuming she scoops practically the entire anti Labour vote. Thanks.
On Harman. I get the feeling this woman is not going to act very dignified if she looks like losing this race. If Blears runs, I expect Harman’s camp to start to get very bitter and blow her chance completely.
Whilst I understand some sisters and some brothers believe in the idea of ‘it should be a woman’ that kind of approach will almost certainly get a counter reaction and with a potentially crowded field that could be enough alone to see her get nowhere near the job.
She wouldnt carry my money at this stage at all.
I’ve got to admit that I’m somewhat bemused that 14% of the UK populace have a strong enough opinion of John Cruddas that they’d be less likely to vote Labour if he was deputy leader.
It’s enough to make me argue that these polls should have a made up character put into the question rotation, so we can judge the baseline”Would you be more or less likely to vote Labour if Gordon Brown were leader and James Jackson were deputy leader”.
I predict the answer would be
7% more likely, 14% less likely.
Someone might accuse the Independent of trying to spin the results….
Andrea It is nightmares. Imagine Mr B with a Scottish accent.
By the way HH or HB or PH would all be wonderful as heirs to Prezza and be an electoral gift to us Tories.a
22. Wells gives the following notionals for the seat: Lab 50.1%, LD 32.1%, Con 13.4%, Others 4.5%
Baxter gives: Lab 52.1%, LD 29.65%, Con 13.88%, Others 4.37%
It depends on how much do you think the tories (and others) can go down (if they go down)
Can we please have a poll that asks how people would vote if Boris were the Tories’ No. 2?
22 If you look at Anthony Wells notionals the answer would be under 100 if the Conservatives and Others were reduced to Zero . Realistically I would have thought the answer around 2000 - 2500 .
14 - I was at the Somme 90th Anniversary commemoration cermonies in France on 1st July. There was a ceremony at the North Ireland War Memorial near Theipval that had Hain, Paisley, Des Brown, Duke of Gloucester, Viscount Brookeborough. We were waiting for the Hain & Brown party and as they went passed all we heard around us were ‘Scum’ ‘Scum’ from a hostile section of the crowd. I asked one why he is shouting as this was a memorial service and to repect the occassion. ‘He wanted the troops out in 1969, we won’t forget that’ was the response for the man almost foaming at the mouth. We moved to another part of the crowd. I felt sorry for the Irish Army representatives who were only a few yards away hearing all this. At least they were in the minority that day.
All these polls measuring reaction to politicians who are barely known by the general public are ridiculous. In the circumstances Labour voters in the poll would be better off using their judgement having heard them perform during the campaign than using these polls to choose for them. I doubt any of these notional deputies will make much difference in the end but if GB wants to make a statement about moving away from spin he could do worse than Hilary Benn IMHO.
30. “At least they were in the minority that day.”
Huh?
30. Interesting that they didnt have a go at the Irish Army representatives…
32.. I’m assuming the shouting mob were the minority..never heard the event reported at all I have to say but it wouldn’t surprise me.
26. Blue2Win, you can dream him with a different accent!
Well done for adding the health warning this morning Mike. All I can say to the Independent is Ha ha ha.
29. Mark, the interesting thing would be having the notional for the part from BE and the one from BS.
Forget Harriet how about this: Communicate Research survey for tomorrow’s Independent puts Labour on 36% (up 4 cf last month)
against 34% for the Tories (down 4) and 17% for Liberal Democrats.
So has the Cameron bubble burst? Or is this a rogue one?
I’d be interested to see more before reaching a conclusion.
32 - crisco - a lot of the crowd around us were just stunned at the small band of nutters who were around that day. It may a common event in NI but not at Thiepval.
39. The solemnity of the occasion certainly deserves better than that. But it also deserves better than having a ‘guest of honour’ like former armchair revolutionary Peter Hain.
This whole poll is fluff
- massive figures for “never heard of this person” and “dont know”
- I suspect a portion of the don’t knows are really “never heard of this person but dont want to seem ignorant”
- The numbers for swing voters for whom it would make “no difference, would vote labour anyway” or “would not vote labour anyway” moves depending on the coupling mentioned. So clearly it WOULD make a difference.
There was this British politican, whose call for British troops to be withdrawn from South Africa was so unpopular he had to be protected from hostile crowds. A few years later he was PM in the War to end all Wars: Lloyd George.
42. Indeed. Wasn’t he the chap the Germans had fingered as the likely leader of a UK Quisling government in 1941?
38 You can guarantee that the Conservative posters will call it a rogue and Conservativehome will not include it in their poll of polls because of volatility a la Mori . LibDems are plus 3 as they were 14 last poll . At least they do publish their full data on their website .
43…genius………..
I think Lord Halifax, may have got the job.
43 - While there were suspicions, the person seen (perhaps unfairly) was Sir Samuel Hoare, the co-author of the 1935 Hoare-Laval Pact, arch-appeaser, and Ambassador to Franco during Churchill’s premiership.
re 38. Just to note that Communicate Research does not use past vote weighting so its methodology is more akin to Mori. This is what I wrote about their last poll which had the Tories ahead - This is quite remarkable given the findings. For the main impact of past vote weighting is usually to reduce the level of Labour support because telephone surveys, for whatever reason, invariably find many more people who voted Labour last time than actually did.
Then again there’s Lord Londonderry, he penned this after the Munich agreement. ‘The fulfilment of all my hopes…I can only have the feeling of great happiness at this moment that all I have advocated has been brought about in a moment in time.’ That was in the preface to the second edition of. ‘Ourselves and Germany’, October 1938. Interesting little book.
Leader of a Quisling government, more than one candidate for that role.
You would not believe the bizarre e-mail I have just had from MORI because I questionned a poll they put in the field for Norwich City Council for its unitary bid. I said it was “fixed” and “bias” because all of the questions led people to answering positively about unitary for the City. This got a small section in the local rag and they have gone ballistic about it. Cor blimey.
re 38 & 48. The CR figures are very similar to what ICM had last week before the past vote weightings were applied. The poll is not a rogue - the figures are a product of the methodology.
It will be interesting to see how they compare with the YouGov November survey which I’m expecting to be out tomorrow.
Does that mean that adjusted this poll would show a Tory lead of 5% Mike?
.. we’re into the DP shake up now with all the publicity around those self nominated. So here’s the runners and riders…
Johnson ballsed it up (and then talked himself into a hole) with his religious quotas u-turn. CHANCES - NONE
Harmen is damaged goods. Hubby Jack Dromy put the final nail in with the Accounts probe plus his previous as a Londons answer to Red Robbo. HH is the 90’s, a throwback and whilst a good cabinet member, bangs on about women’s issues to much. I like HH but too many don’t. CHANCES - SLIM
Hain put his foot in it this week. He’s all over th eplace on Trident and CND and is a lightweight when under pressure. South African, (not one of us), and a big fence sitter when you listen to him. Chances - NONE!
Blears - Ahh.. Little miss sunshine. Someone who can defend the indefensible with that little smile of hers. Chances - WON”T STAND - BLAIRITE/ARROGANT - NO CHANCE
Cruddas - outsider. Has a vision. Coming from too far behind ie untested, too much of a risk. Unkown name, won’t get the airtime, too unfamilar with grass roots members. SHAME - SLIM CHANCE
Jack Straw - Yesterdays flip flop man (As opposed to DC - todays flip flop man). Knocked by colleagues who followed into his Cabinet positions, his best years were the foreign office. WONT STAND - WANTS HOUSE OF LORDS PEERAGE ON THE CHEAP!
Benn - Runaway winner. Experienced no spin honest politician and clever with it. Name on the tin will get him publicity and votes alone. Popular with Brown and Blair (not many of those). Anti-dote to Blair and Cameron (Red Tory/Blue Labour spin) so represents renewal and gets Labour away from the Blair past. Chances - EASY WINNER!!!!
ODDS
Benn 1/2
Harman 4/1
Cruddas 7/1
Johnson 8/1
Hain 20/1
Straw 50/1
Blears 50/1
51 Yes Mike but their last poll had Others at a way too high 16% and this one a still highish 13% so there is still something a little odd there .
49 etc. I think ‘le chevalier’s’ original post mentioning Lloyd-George as the Nazi’s first choice is right. He was certainly a British version of Petain in terms of his personal history, but it’s a lot more questionable as to whether he’d have taken the job. He was pretty ill and aged by that point and might have been keen on Germany’s readmittance to the world community between the wars, but his record at Versailles and elsewhere is not that of a consistent Teutophile (I don’t know if that word exists).
52 And the previous poll would have had a Conservative lead of 11% instead of the published 4% ?
47 - “Lloyd George met Hitler and offered some public comments that were surprisingly favorable to the German dictator. Despite this embarrassment, however, as the 1930s progressed Lloyd George became more clear-eyed about the German threat and joined Winston Churchill, among others, in fighting the government’s policy of appeasement. In the late 1930s he was sent by the British government to try to dissuade Adolf Hitler from his plans of Europe-wide expansion. In perhaps the last important parliamentary intervention of his career, which occurred during the crucial Norway Debate of May 1940, Lloyd George made a powerful speech that helped to undermine Chamberlain as Prime Minister and to pave the way for the ascendency of Churchill as Premier.
During the Second World War there was speculation about Lloyd George returning to government, but these came to nothing. Churchill offered Lloyd George a position in his cabinet as Minister for Agriculture, but was refused because Lloyd George felt he was too old. He was pessimistic about Britain’s prospects, however, and perhaps he wished to avoid being too closely identified with his former protege in the event of a German conquest.”
From Wikipaedia, which also squares from what I recall of reading “David and Winston”.
53. Erm…SISOSIG, are you really offering me 7-1 about Cruddas? If so, I will arrange for my own personal Securicor van to deliver my wager in the next few minutes.
56 the previous ICM poll was weighted. This is not, like Mori. So it needs a down adjustment for the Labour party. ICM’s unadjusted figures were similiar Mike said, but a 5% lead when weighted. I am asking if he can calculate what the figure would be if it were weighted.
Is the sample size 1000?
Are there any historic polls indicating how many people voted Labour or otherwise due to John Prescott being in post? I’ve always believed personality-based polls to over-emphasize the effect that individuals have, and am not surprised to see this one being spun in every direction.
Re 52. No - you cannot draw that conclusion though I would say that it is likely. Since the General Election Populus and ICM have had very similar responses to their past vote recall question with 44-45% saying they voted Labour. I have been keeping a spreadsheet and there has not been much variation. I think the Labour proportion on this question has only dropped below 40% in one survey.
The last CR survey had the extraordinary low figure of 14% for the Lib Dems - again a figure I could not explain.
I cannot make a calculation because CR don’t ask the question.
55. I think there are fringe magazines for Teutophiles are there not?
LOL Yokel!
Actually I’m surprised the word got through Mike’s filter. I bet MI5 picked it up and are arranging surveillance of David’s house right now. 
61 As I said at the time I think the 14% very low LibDem figure was related to the very high Others figure of 16% both being well out of accepted M of Error .
Nothing of interest here, I assure you officer!
Serves me right for making up words from logical component parts without checking whether they existed or not already.
What is interesting is that the CR Tory-Lab movement on the month is very similar to ICM - the Tory position being cut back.
Mike Smithson
Mike, but I think most people expected a Lab gain from an improbably low 29%, below core vote status.
Do we know sample size on the CR poll? A Fawcett society “poll” was released on ConHome newslinks and had a sample size of only 500 making it almost worthless imo.
Is YouGov out tomorrow?
Communicate Research poll for OCTOBER 2006:
Published result - Con 38, Lab 32
BUT
Unweighted numbers were - Con 34, Lab 26
So the adjustments (whatever they were) actually reduced the Conservative lead.
How can this be explained? It seems completely contrary to all the comments made above on this thread!
66: Yes, and although the October CR poll was remarkable with its large Tory lead, the September poll also put the Tories ahead (looking at the raw weighted data on the web site, since the Indie didn’t publish the party findings). IIRC CR’s failure to weight by past vote (which results in higher reported Labour share) is balanced by only taking people who say they are absolutely certain to vote (which normally helps the Tories). I rather suspect what is happening is that Tory certainty to vote is weakening in the face of Cameron’s rhetorical bows to icons of the Left.
Doubt the fieldwork was done that recently, Nick.
53 & 58 Erm…SISOSYG, can you let me have a reply? The van driver is getting impatient.
Mike L: ‘weighting’ in CR’s terms means trying to match the sample to the population. So if the unweighted data has a lot of surrey stockbrokers and few Liverpool fitters, the weighting process will adjust towards Labour. The weighting that Mike is referring to is the adjustment for the fact that, other things being equal, it’s easier to find labour voters at home when you ring up, something which most pollsters have found to be quite significant.
67 October sample was 1,000 so guess this one is too .
68 Those wieghting adjustments are to adjust for example for interviewing too many women 55% as opposed to the correct figure of 52% .
I’ve looked at the poll here http://oxfordliberal.blogspot.com/2006/11/what-harriet-harmans-poll-shows-labour.html
(Before I read this thread, promise.
)
72. Thanks a lot Nick P. Makes sense to me now.
53/58/71 SISOSYG, can I at least tell him to switch the engine off?
Btw, is SISOSYG an acronym? For what?
I’ nervous of people thinking that just because a pollster doesn’t weight by past vote their methodology is totally wrong and needs to be adjusted. They can do other things than weight by pas vote to get an accurate result (select audience carefully, ensure reasonable demographic spread, call at differing times of day, ensure strong geopgraphical balance, take account of certainty to vote, etc etc etc).
This isn’t to say that looking at the raw data and making observations about methodolgy isn’t useful and informative- it is.
It’s just that if you adjust every poll to meet your own personal view of “right way to poll” the likelihood that your own bias will impact your interpretation can get pretty high.
To offer a self critical example, I find it far to easy to dismiss “certainty to vote” weighting because it doesn’t reflect my own prejudices. It’s very easy for me to add 8/9’s to the polls.. and hey presto, Labour look better!
In general I find it preferable to be aware of pollsters different methodologies, and then look out for historical trends within those polls that have a markedly different methodology to the norm.
Cruddas has little chance. Its an Electoral College system. The union affiliation is running a 1p1v system across the board I understand (as opposed to black exec nominations).
In our chapel I haven’t canvassed yet but I can guarantee Cruddas will get next to NO VOTES for various reasons. 16 votes I think we have. I reckon Benn will get 13, Harmen 3, Others 0.
In our CLP I’d guess; Cruddas might get 5%, Benn 45%, Hain 10%, Johnson 20%, Harmen 20%
Our MP won’t vote for Cruddas. Send the money NOW… I can back Benn and make a double killing!
Should I Stay or Should I Go.
27. Well what’s your psephological call.
29. Would that wipe out their deposits. Assuming that was a 2,500 Lab “Majority.” I can see why she might go for it. You agree she wouldn’t submit to be a sacrificial lamb or that the Lib Dems would have allowed her to do so.
57. Everyone remembers Leo Amery. AS you rightly point out In truth contemporaries claimed it was LG who delivered the deathblow to Chamberlain in the Norwegian debate. Hardly the act of a traitor.
Sorry should have read;
Cruddas has little chance. Its an Electoral College system. The union affiliation is running a 1p1v system across the board I understand (as opposed to block exec nominations).
In our chapel I haven’t canvassed yet but I can guarantee Cruddas will get next to NO VOTES for various reasons. 16 votes I think we have. I reckon Benn will get 13, Harmen 3, Others 0.
In our CLP I’d guess; Cruddas might get 5%, Benn 45%, Hain 10%, Johnson 20%, Harmen 20%
Our MP won’t vote for Cruddas. Send the money NOW… I can back Benn and make a double killing!
Should I Stay or Should I Go.
78 Thank you, SISOSIG, but are you giving me 7-1…and if so, to how much?
looking at the raw data on the comunicate website. Some titbits. I’m comparing the breakouts amongst “all those express intention” as it’s easier to see trends to last CR poll.
Annoyingly you can’t see whether the Tory intention to vote is lower because they dont give that breakout.
Tory support is v low amongst C2 (28%- small base). Increase in Labour’s support here quite big and up significantly(again, tiny base)
Tories doing poorly in 25-44 group. Well in older groups. Interesting, Tories down in younger groups, up in older.
Is this Counter intuitive?
Tories doing OK in Midlands, no-where in north, Scotland.
Interestingly the last poll had labour doing v poorly in yorkshie & H. Think that’s small base effect.
82 - interesting details.
C2s - Reid’s bellicose strongman noises?
25-44s - those whose views of the Tories were formed under Thatcher/Major?
79.”Assuming that was a 2,500 Lab “Majority.”
The Lab majority is certainly more than 2,500. According to Wells it is over 6,000. The tories are at 4,900 votes. I suppose Mark Senior thinks she can squeeze around 1,000/1,500 of them leaving her to need around 2,000/2,500 to switch from Lab to LD. It’s a seat with probably a lowish turnout. So I suppose 2,000/2,500 voters can be 5/6%
Interesting that Jackie Ashley has written a piece promoting Harriet Harman. She did the same thing several months ago and on the same basis: that she had been good on women’s issues and it was important to have a woman as deputy leader.
Why does Cameron choose to go to Iraq on the day he should be speaking to the CBI Conference? Blair got a standing ovation and the CBI had to make do with Osbourne. It’s becoming a habit of Cameron’s to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. Who can forget his arrival in Afghanistan at the moment Israel invaded Lebanon. The only camera pointed at him was Hague’s Instamatic. Leaders need luck as well as judgement.
The excellent Michael Grade is going to ITV. Strange choice to leave the BBC but very good for ITV.
More CR titbits: Labour shown as far ahead of SNP (41%-21%, small sample) in Scotland, 3% ahead of Tories overall among ‘probable voters’ (5-10 ‘certainty to vote’ out of 10) but only 1% if weighted by probability (i.e. 80% sure to vote means your vote counts 80%), so Tories still more motivated, but only narrowly.
Newsnight reporting a poll in the independent putting Labour 2 points ahead of the tories
87. Nick, do they use electorals region or TV regions for regional sub-sample?
87. Nick, on Scotland- if that’s even close to being right there’s a lot of ticket splitting going on and the core nat vote is still quite low.
Be interesting to see if one of the scottish pollsters were to do a GE/Holyrood poll at the same time.
If that bore out these (caveat, small base) figures, I’d be most interested if I were running Labour Scot campaign (or the SNPs).
It could be that ticket splitters would be the people to focus on for the next 6 months - be interesting to know what their issues and concerns were.
The BBC reporting from the CBI, that bastion of Labour support:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6189220.stm
Commentator: CR fieldwork was up to yesterday, so does include reactions to Cameron’s bid for the Socia-list Worker vote.
89. Wierdly, they used what looks like TV regions in Oct poll, but merged regions this time (”Wales and SW”, “North” and “midlands”). Looking at it. it looks like the base size was smaller this time, which might explain why.
85. “Why does Cameron choose to go to Iraq on the day he should be speaking to the CBI Conference?” Why don’t you ask the FO or MOD that question. Bit of a coincidence that the window of opportunity for Cameron and Hague to visit Iraq clashed with the CBI conference.
I actually don’t think that Cameron was in the wrong place when he visited Afghanistan, more British troops are being killed or injured there and in Iraq.
Good point, andrea - I think it’s TV regions, so may include some bits where the SNP doin’t stand - does anyone know what BBC Scotland covers?
It’s easy to get the wrong region anyway - when I had two regional TV interviews the other day my wife dutifully switched on and found herself getting stuff about Newcastle United - we’d tuned to NE instead of E Mids and never noticed before.
90. Britspin, in one of last week’s yougov polls about Scotland they also asked Westminster intentions. It was Lab 36, SNP 25, Con 18, LD 16
86. I might’ve known that you’d be a Michael Grade fan, Roger. lol
Personally I still can’t forgive him for suspending Doctor Who in 1985 - despite his recent conversion to the new series.
Looks like no yogov poll tomorrow. Maybe the Telegraph is not commissioning them any more.
Dimbleby to be new BBC Director General, anyone? Is there a book open on it yet? Or perhaps Peter Mandelson? (Joke).
98 - sorry - meant Chair of Board of Governors - not DG.
ITV is a basket case, plummeting revenue and it’s programming is mostly rubbish, Grade looks like a last gasp salvage attempt for them.
96. Stephen. If the Mail hate him that’s good enough for me! (Actually he’s very good!)
Interesting article from the BBC website Nick. Cameron’s bachelor trips with his mates seems to be playing havoc with the day job:
When asked whether the Tories were more business friendly than Labour, one businessman barked, with reference to David Cameron’s last-minute decision to cancel his CBI speech and go to Iraq instead: “It’s hard to say. He didn’t bother to turn up.”
98. Better not joke about these things..Mandelson can always be sacked in Europe and pop up again on BBC!
97.
On Newsnight Scotland they were discussing a poll in tomorrow’s Herald that shows the SNP 8% ahead of Labour. Have to wait until tommorrow for the full details. Its Labour’s internal poll leaked the newspaper. The rotter who ever did that.
Good night all.
104 Its Labour’s internal poll leaked to the newspaper. The rotter who ever did that. - That is what i meant to type.
Now we can see why they were lining up to attack Alex Salmond.
Good night.
Well, the van driver’s gone home and I’m off to bed.
Nighty night, everybody.
104 - Please God lets jusr ask the Scots the question and be done with it. Christ its like listining to my kids thinking they know best…”go on then just get on with it” I say, “lets see what you can do without Daddy’s help!!”
Do you still live without your Daddy’s help? I’m sure they will do fine.
101. Ah, I’ll take your word for it Roger.
I was just 10 years old in 1985 when she shattered my world - his name has been mud in the Whaley household for 2 decades. Never let it be said that we Doctor Who fans don’t know how to hold grudges…
When you were cursing Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s I was cursing Michael Grade…
Seriously though - ITV do need someone of his ability. ITV is bordering upon unwatchable these days. I wish him every success in his mission.
109 - I meant “he shattered” not “she shattered” I’m too tired to type. Bedtime…
104 marcia - “tomorrow’s Herald shows the SNP 8% ahead of Labour”
Oh goodie! See you all bright and early then…
I think you got it right the first time, Steven. Grade was an added minus…..
98 - Not the DG but I suspect Bumblebee will apply for the Chair of the BBC Trust as it will become in January, as he apparently applied for the position when Gordon Brown’s mate Gavyn Davies resigned. Although he would probably have to give up the position as Presenter of Question Time.
108 - but like all spolit kids they’ll always be back when they get in to trouble….or run out of money!
91 Nick Palmer Interesting reference to the BBC website about another promise from Tony Blair. I am sure he will deliver on that as he has on so much else. . . .
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/article2021242.ece
poll showing labour with a 2 point lead.
88 - poll figures from the Indy are: Labour 36(+4), Tory 34(-4), Lib Dem 17(+3) but like Mori this is an unweighted poll. I am sure all the Tories will stamp this firmly in to the dust until the hugley Tory loving YouGuv puts them 10 points ahead again.
“Mr Brown is rated the most successful post-war chancellor and is regarded as the most capable chancellor by 68 per cent. Only 4 per cent back George Osborne, his Tory shadow.”
I have been saying this for a year now. Osborne is a waste of space. The tories have effectively given up on attacking brown on the economy and are going for his personality instead. This is what is gonna win labour the general election next time.
Seriousley name me 5 hits osbourne has had on brown on the economy?
118. Note those numbers are a poll amongst members of the “Political Studies Association” (whatever that is).
Here’s a good headline for tomorrow. Blair’s inability to deal with the Saudi Arabian problem over the Serious Fraud Office’s investigation into the BAE slush funds could cost the UK £76 billion and 50,000 jobs. Moreover BAE could be dealt a crippling blow by the deal falling through, thus pretty much ending the UK’s ability to arm itself.
Would the last person to leave please turn the lights off?
And before anyone gets on their high-horse and says, “why should we trade with the Saudis anyway?”, I’d like to see them express the same amount of support for placing a trade embargo on China and refusing to import oil or gas from Russia or most Middle Eastern countries….
If the polls twixt now and the New Year continue to disappoint for DC,can we still take it for granted he’ll lead the Tories next time? (I stand by my hunch he will,and ‘lose well’ i.e get to 250-260 seats)
So, the CR poll puts us two points behind, does it? And so we bloody well deserve it for talking nonsense about 35 hour work weeks and for supping with Polly bloody Toynbee. I’m not averse to change or modernity and I am a supporter of the Cameron project, but some things are just utterly ridiculous.
122. Patrick - but even that would almost certainly mean Labour lose their majority.
With Tories on 255, even if LDs fall to 45, then 18 Ulster and just 10 Nats would give total opposition of 328. Labour would be on 322.
mr matlock, what in your opinion would you like to see the tories offer?
124,I take your point fully on board:two points,namely,
(a)I feel that southern marginal Lib Dems are somewhat more at danger than will be the national case in 2009
(b) ‘Hung parlaiment ‘territory has quite a few connotations:were the next election to see Gordon Brown a few setas shy of an overall majority,I would have little doubt that he would last a 4 year term-after all,how on earth do you get all minorities to unite-as I recall,it took the failure of Scottish devolution im March 1979 to get the then Tory opposition,the Liberals and SNP into the same division lobby-by recent historical standards,there will be more-usual-’third party MPs’ after the next election.
What COULD (sorry to shout,but my PC hates underlining :lol:) be interesting would be if it was no longer the case Plaid Cymru,the SNP and whichever rag-bag of Ulster MPs could sustain a minority Brown government-at this point I hope the SNP recall their vote in March 1979 when 9 out of their-then 11 MPs lost their constitencies-I trust a more measured approach would be adopted.
To conclude:I believe the mortgage paying skilled manual/lower middle-class of the South and Midlands will (just) see GB home next time.I also feel DC will make some real progress,and FWIW,in that scenario,even as a Labourite,I hope Dave would get a second chance.Sorry I’ve rambled on so !
125 - I am not about to pronounce the Conservative Manifesto to you on this illustrious website, my good man, but if we are making a detailed study of our policies by way of the commissions DC set up when he became leader then why on earth are we not letting them get on with their work and then make reasoned, rational and comprehensive announcements next year when the reports are in, rather than these ill-considered, daft and demotivating statements of the sort that we heard uttered last week? In my view, some in the inner circle have been rattled by this nonsensical criticism that we ‘must have specific policies and we must have them now’. This will lead to trouble if allowed to continue.
127 i take it your not a fan of ms toynbee? or was it churchill being out of date that annoyed you?
128 - How did you guess? Everything about that woman irritates me.
ha ha i know what you mean, i don’t like her personally. i think she is too preachy as well as a hypocrite. Thats what really gets me, she attacks labour from the left but then acts to the right.
I get sick of people who try and pull down every attempt by labour to shake up some of the worst sink schools in britain schools that really do fail students, but then will make sure they whack in their nice big checks to their private schools. Dianne Abbot is another.
Good evening,Mr.Matlock,I trust you are well,sir.
Is it the case that David Cameron could undertake a drastic policy-update,and see this undermined by hard-right-wingers making unacceptable sounds?(Reference,the member for Essex,Castle Point,Dr.Robert Spink,who showed unease when he more or less stated black Britons are far more likely to be imprisoned/convicted)-in this respect David Cameron really does mirror Neil Kinnock trying to face down his ‘loony left’ in the mid 1980s-I personally cannot see that the rabid right-wing of the Conseravtive Party can be kept muzzled from now to polling day in two or three years
125. AHM - you weren’t asked what is going to be in the Conservative manifesto, but what you would like to be in it. And since we can presume that you won’t be writing the thing, you have no reason not to tell us!
131 - I am well, thank you. I reject the premise of your question entirely. Bob Spink is entitled to his view. I’m not sure what evidence he has for that, but I don’t think he claimed to be speaking for the Conservative Party when he said it.
132 - Well, that is for me to know and you to guess!
133,I entirely hear you,Mr.Matlock-do you see that the last thing DC needs,as he attempts to re-fashion his party to a modern,liberal-ish centre-right grouping is someone shooting his mouth from a far,far-right perspective-you must be naive to not realise what a gift that could provide your opponents (Far be it for myself(and millions of others who do not support your party )to complain,but let no-one say ‘I did’nt warn you’…..)
135 - Nonsense. We are a political party, not a brainwashing cult. People are welcome to their own views and they are welcome to air them whether they agree with the leadership or not.
Even as a Labour voter,it may shock to hear that I am (a)Pro-free speech (b)Capable of being very politically incorrect (I love the NTL 1970s repeats of ‘Till Death Us Do Part’-I have laughed hard enough to depart,through a heart attack at some of the sketches-but however fluffy,nice DC spins himself to be,it only takes one BNP-worthy remark to bring his whole gallery down-I give up now,as I sense my attempts at common sense are ,at best,being ignored-ah well,I’ll turn into bed now,looking forwards to my party as GB wins Labour’s fourth term..I might try to scribe DC’s concession speech-could be a giggle,byeeeeeeeeeeeee!
137 - Goodnight to you, Patrick. And to your A-level in Economics as well…..
80. If the election for Deputy Leader was held this week then you could be right. But who knows what the situation will happen in 7 or 8 months time? Jon Cruddas has plenty of time to raise his profile.
As a party member I always try to be optimistic about Labour’s fortunes. But if we’re honest there is a chance that Labour could fair poorly at the local, Welsh and Scottish and Parliamentary elections. Should this happen I’d expect Cruddas as the ‘change’ candidate to gain further consideration and increased support among MPs and members.