YouGov confirms the big Lib Dem recovery
January 29th, 2007
But the Telegraph describes a 7% Tory lead as “evenly joined”
After last week’s ICM poll in the Guardian which had the Lib Dems moving up a massive five points to a 23% share there’s more good news for Ming Campbell’s party in this morning’s January YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph.
These are the figures compared with the last survey by the pollster before Xmas. Con 38% (+1) Lab 31% (-1) LD 18% (+3). (Note the comparisons are with the poll that appeared in the Sunday Times and not the the earlier December Telegraph survey.)
Not for the first time the oddest part of the survey is the way the Daily Telegraph is reporting it. The paper’s Anthony King writes as if it was bad news for the Lib Dems and bad news for the Tories saying “the battle remains more evenly joined than ever before”. Eh?
If a 7% Tory lead is “more evenly joined than ever before” what was last month’s 5% margin or last September’s poll that had Labour and the Tories level-pegging? Even allowing for normal Telegraph levels of Cameron-hatred this is stretching credulity too far. Get over it guys.
The survey itself was completed last Wednesday and normally would have been published on Friday. Clearly a lot has happened in the intervening period.
So what seems to be happening is that as disenchantment with Blair’s Labour continues the main movement has not been to the Tories but to the third party. This is welcome news for Ming Campbell and follows some assured performances on Iraq and the Saudi arms case controversy.
But there’s good news for Labour and for Brown in the the named leader measure that YouGov uses - a forced choice asking “would you prefer to see after the next election, a Conservative Government led by Cameron or a Labour Government led by Brown”. These are the responses to that question for the past year:-
FEB 2006 CON 37: LAB 43 (LAB +6)
JUN 2006 CON 44: LAB 38 (CON +6)
AUG 2006 CON 43: LAB 36 (CON +7)
OCT 2006 CON 46: LAB 33 (CON +13)
NOV 2006 CON 43: LAB 34 (CON +9)
DEC 2006 CON 45: LAB 32 (CON +13)
JAN 2007 CON 44: LAB 38 (CON +6)
This looks like a big recovery on the month but Brown’s party is still a long way off what it was a year ago. It does indicate that there should be a “Brown bounce” when he eventually takes over the top job. The big question, of course, is whether that will be sustained.
The main cloud on the horizon for Gordon is that only 31 per cent of those in the survey believe he “will prove a good prime minister” compared with 44 per cent who reckon he will not.
Whatever this is all a phoney war until Labour’s new leader is in place.
Mike Smithson
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I have to say my level of respect for Anthony King goes down every time he puts his name to one of these “Yes, I will write whatever you want me to, dear Editor” bizarre analysis pieces of the YouGov polls.
I think that improvement in the Brown named leader must be a bit of anti-Blair feeling.
Good, not great, YouGov poll for us. Very nice to be at highest since last election and a two point jump with them in a month is respectable.
Also good to see LDs taking from Labour, this will help them in many Lab-Lib marginals and us in many Lab-Con ones.
I think that improvement in the Brown named leader must be a bit of anti-Blair feeling.
Good, not great, YouGov poll for us. Very nice to be at highest since last election and a two point jump with them in a month is respectable.
Also good to see LDs taking from Labour, this will help them in many Lab-Lib marginals and us in many Lab-Con ones.
Sorry - wasn’t posting in AOL
Yes, very odd King comment. But the minuscule movements do confirm my impression from yesterday’s canvass that the Labour meltdown widely-predicrted here is simply not happening. Since I wouldn’t argue that the headlines have been anything but dreadful for the last couple of weeks, this presumably confirms the core vote theory - pretty much no matter what happens, Labour stays above 30%. If so, given that we got only 35% last time, the 2005 vote is basically intact, and the Tories really need to squeeze someone else to get a sufficient lead to be confident.
Yes, very odd Palmer comment. As the reasons to not vote Labour grow, the slide past 30% proceeds. It is bad enough that OAPs are put down in the NHS.
Today, in the Daiy Bloodvessel, Dr Des Turner, Labour MP for Brighton, Kemptown, has been arrested for Crashing his car while Drink Driving.
More Sleaze. More Hypocracy. More Reasons to vote Against Labour.
nick 5. I think the leading person predicting Labour meltdown was you. Apart from the poll taken immediately after Blair’s Manchester speech the party has been on 31-33% with YouGov since April. Rock solid. I think that there’s always an expectation that there will be a lot more movement than there actually is and 30-31 really is rock bottom. That support level is down a one sixth since the General Election which is quite high.
The 35% you quote is for the whole of the UK - not just the GB figures, which exclude N. Ireland so the the comparison point is 36.2%. This is what the polling numbers are based on. I’m sure that was a mistake - not a piece of spin.
It really is pleasing to see the Lib Dem share in both ICM and YouGov moving upwards and I only hope that Lembit does not rush to take the credit! In fact there have been no Cheeky Girl stories for several weeks.
The theory that 30-31% in the polls is Labour’s “rock bottom” and that they have no reached it can be taken two ways.
On the one hand you can look at it positively and suggest that (on the basis of seat predictor models) it is really going to be nearly impossible for the Conservatives to get an overall majority.
On the other hand you can look at it negatively, in that virtually nobody is claiming to support Labour for anything other than tribal reasons which, as with the Tories from 1997, leaves no clear route to recovery in the short term and without wholesale transformation in public perception - something which is very difficult to do in government.
A corollary of the latter argument is that most of the seat predictor models will probably break down quite severely. Over the last 8 years Labour have ‘fine-tuned’ their electoral strategy to absolutely maximise the seats they can achieve per share of the vote - “the old 5% of the electorate decide elections line”- they now have few superfluous votes left to shed. If the 5% loss since the election is, in fact, the 5% mentioned above (and the “Labour have reached their core argument strongly supports this theory) then the negative effects could be extremely dramatic.
Labour did reach 29% in one ICM poll last year.
But yes, of course Nick is right, there is a core Labour vote, and nothing will shift it apart from “events, dear boy, events”. If the PM is charged, if inflation bounces again and interest rates go up… catacylsmic events like this could shift the polls. So could a terrorist attack, mass hospital closures, other things.
All of which I think are quite possible, if improbable.
I think sometimes people on PB forget what an incredible turnaround it represents for the Tories to be debating if we can or can’t get an overall majority. Labour right now has a cracking majority of 66, and the Tories position is still worse than Michael Foot’s electoral suicide in 1983.
Of course much of that is down to boundaries, but still…
To go from Foot-like annihilation to “can we form a government” is just an awesome turnaround and perhaps explains why my bood pressure rises sometimes when I read the ukip-infiltrated ConHome.
There is a core Labour vote but the risk is it may stay at home.
If money is tight, walking down the road is risky and hospitals are places you only see on telly since yours was rationalised away, then staying at home is certainly tempting.
What Gordon Brown needs to do is to ease up on the working class which too often has the contempt of New Labour figures.
10. Indeed, Commentator, as I have said before, you’ve got to knock ‘em out to draw. The ConHome crew need to take the message on board.
Lots of sensible comments so far, so I’ll try to avoid repeating what’s already been said.
One of the more interesting aspect of the poll is the decline in others - implicitly from 16% to 13%. That may be down to a bit of an outlier or at least a ‘high’ figure last month - the Lib Dems’ total also seemed a bit low - but with the sort of Home Office related stories there have been in the press, it wouldn’t have been a surprise to see an increase in the UKIP / BNP totals. Although I’ve not seen the full breakdown, I’d be amazed if the reality is anything other than the opposite (I’d expect the SNP total to be fairly static, so that doesn’t leave much else).
The only way I can consider Antony King’s comments to be vaguely sensible is if he’s talking about the result in terms of seats, not votes. On that score, it would be pretty close - though as Alex mentioned at [8], it does depend on which votes are being shed.
Just a quick comment on the 30% ‘floor’ for Labour’s vote. I think this is a false assumption. Labour’s vote is far from the core that sustained it from the 1940s to the 1990s, and especially though the lean times in the 1980s. The turnout in ‘Labour’ areas is frequently very poor - the main reason for the larger share of the vote needed for the Conservatives to win overall. But Labour has picked up other votes in the 1990s based on Blair’s appeal and Brown’s record. These are not ‘tribal’ votes but ‘performance’ votes based on approval of the economic record and could be lost if that performance does not continue.
I have a lot of time for YovGov polls, rather more time for the Telegraph but absolutely no time for Anthony King. His consistent anti-Tory bias in his so-called “analysis” has long ruined his pieces. He is like Bob Worcester IMHO, in that they’ll spin anything as being bad for the Conservatives. Think 2003 - or the last US Presidential race? I don’t read a single word King writes any more - if I want impartial commentry on the polls, I turn to PB.com
In some ways this poll gives all 3 hope.
LDs are up a bit to 18% from some very low polling in December.
Labour are down but have a few green shoots indicating that Gordon may bring an uplift.
Conservatives are maintaining a healthy gap over Labour.
Of the 3, Labour need to make the change soon and avoid a meltdown in May. Not changing Blair before May will mean that the Brown bounce comes after Scotland and 1,000 councillors are lost.
On the “floor” and Michael Foot comparison, is n’t it the case that Labour actually have more safe seats than the Tories ie regardless of how badly they do in an election they have more seats which will never change?
16. Yes it is.
16/17. And no it isn’t. Nominally, Labour do have a lot of traditionally safe seats, but then they also now have untraditional challengers. There’s no way in the world that the Conservatives will win many of these safe seats, but in Scotland and Wales, the nationalists could - and in previous elections, did in a number of cases. In some areas, the threat posed by the BNP shouldn’t be underestimated - they could potentially win a couple of seats at the next election based on their performances in the locals, and as Blaenau or Bethnal Green showed, the wrong Labour candidate and the right independent can also produce an upset.
15 HF - a very balanced summary.
What frustrates me is that with mess that Labour are in at the moment, Cameron seems reluctant to deliver the killer blows.
We all know the “keep powder dry for Brown” strategy, has an element that rightly wants to see Blair limp on for as long as possible. However, the Home Office touches many of the issues closest to people’s hearts, and we should have Labour and Reid drowning in a bloodbath just now.
I’m sure a stronger boot put in by DC now would start the 40%+ bandwagon rolling. We’ll just have to wait for the May results for Labour to be cast into the “hopeless losers” category a la Major in mid 90s.
NickP @ 5 - I think you are seriously deluded if you think your 2005 vote is “basically intact”. 1/6th left already, and the Conservatives maintaining a clear lead for 12 months on a (to date) policy-lite strategy. I would not bet against it going south of 30% in a few You-Gov polls before the next GE.
Mike at 7
Just how well the Cheeky Girls’ latest release is doing in the charts!
8 and others
The core vote is not 30% its probably less than that. In ‘83 it was 26, and in 87 crept up to 31 on the back of a good campaign and a big move in Scotland
However Alex articulates a view I have that the votes and seats in the south are so fluid and non-tribal that if a head of steam is built up in one direction then there could be a big shift comparable to 97 and 83.
Tory dreamers please note the shift in votes in 79 was quite modest in comparison with 97. 83 was your year
If I was Brown I’d get rid of virtually the whole cabinet except Hutton Johnson Darling and Alexander and go for a clean break. In particular to Reid, Hewitt, Blears, Des Brown. Oh and bring the boys home
21. I think Hutton will be the first out of the door when GB takes over.
7 “It really is pleasing to see the Lib Dem share in both ICM and YouGov moving upwards and I only hope that Lembit does not rush to take the credit! In fact there have been no Cheeky Girl stories for several weeks.”
Rather to my surprise, I have come to the conclusion that the Cheeky story did hurt us (at least when it first emerged). It seems the most likely explanation for the December dip.
Good to see YouGov corroborating ICM. If this were YouGov alone, i would have to ignore it.
Re 19 Robin thanks.
On your point about “keeping powder dry”, there is some sense when we are theoretically so far away from the next GE, that DC should stand back and let Labour tear itself apart. Also the longer Blair stays the worse it gets for Labour.
David Davis does not instantly call for the head of his opponents he plugs away building the case and works with others to create problems for them. Once the pressure becomes overwhelming with the papers screaming for the head then in steps DD and he goes for the jugular.
Intervening too early, could force Labour to re-unite against a common foe.
Thnaks for the article Mike. OK poll for us. Please the gap has widened, or rather appears to have, of course this is within the MOE of the last one.
Yes it is odd however to see this spun as bad news for the Conservatives. Maybe people are comparing to the unweighted figures of 1992-1997 and expecting us to be 300% ahead?
Maybe the real story is that some of the “protest vote” has shifted back from “others” to the Lib Dems because the Lib Dems have been busy protesting?
Saudi arms
Iraq
peerages
Local Focus newsletters being delivered (December is quiet)
etc
25. That’s really what it is Benedict, psychologically people are not used to realistic polls - they want the 15 point jumps of Mori et al
Was also interesting to note that GB’s rating is up. And that Ming the useless was stuck on a miserable 7% as the “best PM”. Less than half the LDs believe he is the man.
Nick at 5
I remember canvassing with Jim Lester in Broxtowe prior to 97. We had a similar feeling then that somehow the polls were wrong or a personal vote would get him through.
What seemed to have happened then was a resonable and nice man, well regarded by constituents being overtaken by a national swing and on the doorsteps people just didnt want to tell him.
Nick might well be witnessing the same
The Telegraph is really losing it. Another online sub-headline is “Cameron breaks from Davis over Catholic adoption.”
Funny that. I thought Cameron was the leader, and if anything any “breaking” would be the other way round. Are the Telegraph loonies getting delusional and have forgotten the result of this democratic leadership voting thingy a year ago?
21 I agree that this is what Brown should do, altho’ I think Hutton should be booted out as well. Preferably with hob-nailed boots.
“Oh and bring the boys home”. This is the nub.
I guess attempts to do this will [1] lose GB the support of the Murdoch press and [2] provoke a furious reaction from the newly-installed head of the Blair Foundation.
HF Yes - much more likely than Dec LD figures affected by Lembit!? How were LD ratings when asteroids were flavour of the month?
When you consider that Tory and Labour figures are only + and -1, well within Margin of Error, I imagine, whereas LD and total of “Others” are + and -3, which could (even on small numbers) be a real, if perhaps temporary effect.
Re 27, Commentator, yes I know. Ah well.
Re 29, Cynic, yes and lots of good MP’s got the chop. We will have to see how Nick Palmer gets on.
re 30, rent a quote, have you got a URL for that?
Thinking about it, the LD percentage here may have been boosted by the more positive “bring the troops home from Iraq by October” message by LDs in Parliament. I assume fieldwork was being done just after Ming’s call.
33 BW Front page on the online news section of the Telegraph.
[19][24] I suspect that few, if any, of those in Tory High Command, think that “rolling out” policies will push up their party’s poll numbers. It has to be done, rather, to prevent them going down during a campaign when, of course, the question of what the parties propose to do in the event of victory does tend to come up … In the meantime, leaving behind the general impression that the Tories will, if only given sufficient consecutive electoral victories, abolish both taxation, political correctness and yobs is much more like sense.
For example, none of the Tories on here are claiming that they would have managed the prison accommodation shortfall better - Labour have actually been implementing Michael Howard’s policy, and as far as I can see Cameron’s own views on the subject are pure Hampstead liberalism. FWIW, if I were a Tory, I’d be arguing for the return of capital punishment where a jury unanimously votes for it in the sure & certain knowledge that there’d always be at least one “conchie” on a jury, but that the concept would be wondrously spinnable …
24 HF. Davis does indeed have a good record of scalps to his name, and his diligence pays off in spades.
There is a tipping point in any failing government’s fortunes when the mood switches from general distrust and dislike (as now) to downright antipathy, at which point the bandwagon rolls incessantly and inevitably towards a change of government. We saw it in 93/94/95 leading to 97. I am just impatient that we get to that point asap.
The most significant Brown number in this poll is that in Feb 2006 36% thought he ‘will make a good PM’ and now 31% do. In Feb 33% thought he’ will not’ make a good PM and now 44% think he won’t.
So the more people see him ( his exposure as PM in waiting has been higher in the year) the less they rate him?
29 I think this is a very perceptive posting.
A friend of mine is so gentle to canvassers that four political parties (Labour, Con, LibDem & Green) are convinced that she votes for them.
38 Hardly a surprise, these “best PM” things are pretty meaningless.
31% is roughly equal to the Labour vote, doh!
44% is less than the combine LD and Tory vote share.
Some Torys or Lib Dems think Gordon is the Best PM. Not a bad result.
Good poll for Lib Dems, with them back at 18% with YouGov, which most Lib Dems equate to about 21% on the street (and with other pollsters) because of YouGov’s always high “others” value. Looks to me like back to business as usual for all 3 parties after some odd winter polls. If the bad news for Labour is sustained we could see a slide in the next few weeks though, with the core vote tested.
David Herdson is right - the “core vote” that Labour now has is substantially different to the one that was tested to the limit in ‘83. Indeed, a great deal of that 28% from ‘83 will never vote for Labour again, and is now voting Green, Respect or Lib Dem. Labour has added a new type of voter to the remnant of this ‘83 core, which is the middle-class family, won over by Blair types. The thing is, this new vote has never really been tested in an election where Labour are on the ropes (like they were in the 80’s). I don’t think it can be taken for granted that they will stay, and if they don’t the old class of ‘83 supporters wont be there to replace them.
40 Jonathan The point is rather that it haas got worse over the year.
For Labour to win it needs more that its core vote. If only the core think that Brown will make a good PM then he is unlikely to be able to put together a winning coalition in 2010. Perhaps not even a blocking coalition to stop Cameron?
What would be an interesting conundrum for the Tories would be if it turned out that Labour did now have a new core vote of, say, 31%, which with the favourable distribution of Labour votes and boundaries is effectively a blocking minority in the 2.5 party system we now have. Would the Tories ever look to electoral reform to break Labour’s stranglehold on FPTP? I doubt it. One more heave should do it…
Thanks for the 35->36 cl;arification, Mike, hadn’t known that.
Re 29: there’s always a risk of people being too nice to say they won’t vote for you. But FWIW the canvass I was talking about was (a) for the council candidates, not me (b) conducted by a team of four so each of us were only seeing a quarter and (c) compared with the same people 2-4 years ago. In my experience, canvassing, while almost useless at producing predictions from raw totals, is surprisingly accurate if you compare like with like and have a reasonable sample to iron out random errors. Gentle people stay gentle, liars stay liars!
Core votes: I agree that the Labour core is not the same core is it was 20 years ago. There are elements of the same core, but changing demographics has reduced that, as has the shift of Labour to being a more classless party. The main additions have been the world poverty people, who are enthusiastic about Gordon with good reason, and virtually none of whom will vote Tory, and people who have personal reasons to remember pre-1997 with anger.
Obviously a vote of 30-31% isn’t enough. But it’s an almost universal rule that the party that is behind picks up several points as an election approaches and media coverage becomes more even-handed. A core vote of 30% gives a good shot at a repeat of 36% at the GE. Whether you think more than 36% is likely (as I do) depends on how you view all the other things we debate here…
Re 35, rent a quote, many thanks. Dascinating fudge proposed. At the moment if a gay couple go to a Catholic adoption agency, they get a list of places they could go, if on the other hand they are “twined” then they only get one place to go. What is interesting though, is I can see that fudge being legal.
44 Nick, I am sure my gentle friend would leave you with the impression that she would vote Labour today. But, my guess is that she has changed her vote since 1997.
This is not a random error, Nick, so the sample size does not “iron” it out. There is a systematic bias from gentle people (and also from liars) & the bias goes in one direction.
Re the argument about Labour’s core vote I think we will find Labour polling well below 30% in the May elections.
Labour´s vote has already been well below the 30% level in local elections in the past, Blue Moon. How low do you think it will fall this time? Could it even be below the 20% level? I for one would not be surprised if it did…..
Polls are weighted to be representative of the population but we know that at elections the voters are not representative of the population as turnout is higher in Conservative areas.
Polls can’t really estimate the effect of this but one solution is for the starting point (ie the last GE) to be adjusted to work out vote shares IF there had been equal turnout in all constituencies. This means there is then a like for like comparison to current polls.
I asked this question on this site about a year ago and someone said one of the research papers had done the calculation and that with equal turnout, Labour won the last election (in terms of votes) by 5%, not 3%.
This point is never picked up on by anyone but I think it’s important. The difference of 2% is not a huge amount but it is significant. If the Conservatives are now 7% ahead, it means the true swing is 6%, not 5%.
47. Yes and we might find that its one thing having a “core vote” this 30% ish who wont vote any other way, but will they simply not vote at all?
44. Nick a small wager on Labour polling a smaller share in Broxtowe this May than in May 2003???
Lets take a basic theory here that both main parties have a core vote of around 30% give or take a percent. These are the wouldnt vote for anyone else types.
As regards Labour, whilst they seem to be polling at their core level, is it not the case that perhaps that 31% in the latest poll isn’t their ‘core’ as we understand it at all?
What we may be seeing is that the leftists have flown the coop for the moment and in fact that figure of 31% is actually made up of some of the real ‘core’ as we would define it and some swing voters. At a general election to we really expect that trend to continue? What we may have coming up to the election is a complete flip flop, the leftists by and large return under threat of a Tory government whilst the swing voters may defect to the right.
Fact: A core voter is overall worth less than a swing voter because by and large the core always turns out and tends to be concetrated geographically, often where you could put a waworks up with a blue or red badge and theyd win. In short Labour’s doldrum issues as seen by these polls doesnt reflect possible GE numbers at all.
In short, poll is worth nowt in looking at the GE.
Sorry, I may have ruined a few days there….
The Tory front bench have been lucky and had almost a week to get their line sorted re the Cath/adoption row.
The Cam/Davis split is interesing, and could prove a decent test of cameron’s mettle.
It looks to me like they’ve sorted out an agreement that any vote will not be whipped and hope that Cam taking the chocolate orange route re gay rights will do the trick. Basically trying to have it both ways and hopin no one will call Cam to account .
I think Cam can do it , I thought he was impressively vague on R4 this morning -( this is the Gov’ts hit after all) Its whether Davis gets carried away as an outrider .
41. There seems to be quite a lot of wishful thinking about the imminent collapse of the core Lab vote here. I was as a 19 year old part of the 28% that voted Lab in 1983. And I remain fully core, if I may so put it. For many of us, the horror of that result - and the fact of being unable to do anything to protect the most vulnerable groups in our society from Thatcherism - has left a deep legacy. We continue to endeavour do everything our power to ensure the return of Labour governments - and even after more than 20 years our hatred of the Tories has not diminished one iota. Particularly in the North and Scotland, I think you’ll find there are quite a lot of people like me. Cameron may have good hair, nice smile and reasonable views - but he’s still a Tory.
Tressage Indeed Labour’s vote has fallen well below 30% in local elections in recent years. In England I can see Labour coming third with say 25% or so ( although one has to be careful to adjust for those areas actually voting). They will likely do a bit better than this in Scotland; say nearer 30% in the constituency vote. I haven’t seen any decent polls for Wales but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Plaid polling very well as the most obvious receptacle for protest votes.
54, I imagine that most people who voted Labour in 1983 would cut their right arms off rather than vote Conservative. But that doesn’t preclude them voting Lib Dem, Resepct, Green, BNP, UKIP etc.
The adoption “fudge” is to my mind unacceptable. It does not become OK to discriminate against people just because you happen to have a helpful ‘friend’ nearby who doesnt discriminate…
I’ve just noticed Con homes link is no longer under misc column has there been a falling out
55.”I haven’t seen any decent polls for Wales but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Plaid polling very well as the most obvious receptacle for protest votes”
I think there hasn’t been any polls about Wales recently. So it’s all a bit of speculation on what are the conditions of various parties. For ex you expect Plaid to poll well..I read a couple of Labourites on Labour blogs expecting Plaid not to do well and being passed by the tories.
But it’s hard to really know what the situation is as various camps are probably spinning a bit.
“In England I can see Labour coming third with say 25% or ”
Do you mean the total of votes casted? Or the national projection? If it’s the national projection, 25% wouldn’t be bad for them (as they were at 26% last year)
58.”I’ve just noticed Con homes link is no longer under misc column has there been a falling out ”
it has been renamed with CONtinuityIDS
7.
“there have been no Cheeky Girl stories for several weeks.”
Four page spread in the Mail colour magazine this Saturday, Mike. But isn’t there a bit of the cheeky girl-lover in all of us?
We hear a lot about the Labour vote hardening as the prospect of the Conservatives getting back in increases, but isn’t there a group of softer Labour voters in urban who, now that they see the Tories becoming more palatable, feel more at liberty to vote Lib Dem? (i.e. they still prefer not to vote Tory, but Labour can no longer put the frighteners on them re. the Tories getting back in).
55 I agree that 25% is (just) imaginable in the locals if you assume taht Labour will get nothing but bad news from here to May.
But they will probably get some good news, a lot of the metroplitan areas coming up this time are rock solid for Labour, and the prospect of Blair going will enthuse some people.
Andrea I meant the national projection. 2005 was an awful year for Labour in the council elections and I doubt they can go much lower than about 25% but who knows. Disregard my point about Wales since I have no real knowledge of the scene over there but Plaid did very well a few years ago taking seats from Labour in the valleys, as I recall. I can’t really see why they couldn’t do the same this time. If they can’t break through this time I don’t know when they will be able to do so.
44. “But it’s an almost universal rule that the party that is behind picks up several points as an election approaches and media coverage becomes more even-handed. A core vote of 30% gives a good shot at a repeat of 36% at the GE”
Really Nick? Personally, I’d much sooner be in first place than 2nd!
I think this really is clutching at straws.
re 58 CONtinuityIDS is my little joke as a way of describing CONHome. There has been no falling out and Tim Montgomerie has asked me to write a feature for his site next week.
Thanks Andrea. Typical old tory in young body hopeless with technology
34 Tim13 Fieldwork took place over three days, with the last being the day of the troops out call.
I assume that most pof the panel would have replied before this was made (or before they had seen/heard the news). So it might be part of the explanationm, but by no means all of it.
A lot of speculation this morning, the usual suspects putting their party gloss, on poll results. The Libdems have probably the most to cheer about, despite Ming, they are polling well. Marcus in Torbay, don’t get your hopes up, looks like a struggle for you there. The Tories have something to cheer about, but with the problems the ‘third term’ Labour government is having, should be doing better. Labour, amazing! suffering but not the melt down long predicted by some of the Tory posters: we live in intersting times. The voters may be unsure about GB, as PM, but are they convinced about Cameron?
67. S Penketh. I was used to find it as the last link in the misc section, so when he changed it, I continued to go and click on the last link and then being surprised to be taken to another site!
65. Yes really wishful thinking, that. Look at the pattern from the last parliament. Labour average poll share 2002 42% 2003 37% 2004 35% 2005 38% actual GE 36%. Even if you pick 2004 as the mid-term low, the improvement at the GE was only 1%. The polls from 2003-2005 were a pretty accurate forecast of the final result.
64 et al Local elections this year are almost a repeat of 2003 . The actual real vote shares ( not projections ) were including Scotland Con 31.5% Lab 27.9% LibDem 24.2% Others 16.4% and in England only Con 34.6 Lab 27.0 LibDem 26.1% Others 12.3% . IMHO Labour are destined to be below 25% this year in real votes .
21. “If I was Brown I’d get rid of virtually the whole cabinet except Hutton Johnson Darling and Alexander and go for a clean break. In particular to Reid, Hewitt, Blears, Des Brown. Oh and bring the boys home”
Whats’s interesting about this “transition” is the number of people outside of Labour trying to help make the above happen. The business with the judges was extraordinary - they found room in jail for the Royal editor of the NOTW, but not a paedophile - clearly this was about gamesmanship. They are not only trying to destroy any chance of John Reid becoming leader but his reputation as a minister too, so that there is no way the Blairites can force Brown to keep his old adversary in the Home Office.
Clearly it’s not just Labour activists who are looking forward to a Brown premiership, and hope and goodwill towards him seem to be building in unexpected quarters. I hope Brown puts Jack Straw back into the Home Office - he is a good, well-liked politician and got on well with the judiciary during his previous stint there. I would also put John Denham in the No 2 position in the Home Office. (This is speculation of course, no one knows yet what Mr Brown intends).
59 Andrea, It is true that there are no reliable Welsh polls … but as Punter has pointed out, it was a clutch of Welsh Labour MPs in the thick of the plotting to boot out Tony last autumn. This kind of alarm signal is more reliable than any poll.
Bear in mind too that in 2002, Labour has an astonishingly good result in Wales — with a whole clutch of seats like Llanelli, Conwy and Clwyd West won with absolutely tiny margins. With the exception of Wrecsam, Labour won every seat they could reasonably expect to win.
I think if Labour can keep the losses to -5 (i.e 25 Senedd seats after the election), they’ll have done well in the circumstances.
At the risk of inflating a south sea bubble, has anyone else seen the increase in ‘Blait to Quit this week’ rumours ?
They seem to be ‘whispers from parliament’ that are permeating through News24 (see Iain dale) and a number of bloggers in the “my mp/ex mp said this ” line.
Is there anything more substantial out there ?
73. The judiciary are part of a Brownite conspiracy? oh really…you should be posting on CONtinuityIDS with that kind of stuff.
Re : Core votes
Last year one of the pollsters provided a breakdown of voters propensity to switch. Labour and Conservative had about 25% likely to switch and LDs about 40% (I think, it was certainly higher than the other 2).
Applying this 25% to Labour’s 31% produces a core vote of 23%.
Recent polling bears out these indications of core votes. There has been more volatility in LD polling than the other 2. Labour’s polling has not reached bottom and could fall below 30%.
76. There’s no conspiracy - Brown doesn’t have much contact with judges (that’s the Blair’s you are thinking of…)
But the behaviour of the judges remains extraordinary. If they are not trying to dislodge John Reid from the Home Office, what are they trying to do?
74. Gwynfa. I think that everyone expects Labour losing votes, but without actual polls, we can jusr speculate on who will get those votes
78 - How about not being cyphers of the Executive Branch, as ex Stalinists like Dr Reid would have them be, and asserting judicial independence. That cause you a problem?
78- i thought the judges reaction was understandable after the letter he sent them. Shot himself in the foot, it was bound to happen.
However,
The Sun’s vitriolic campaign against Reid is something else, They are really out to damage him .
What is Murdoch up to ?
He was at Davos with GB.
79. My spelling is collapsing!
79 But Andrea — I think the answer is also clear, both Plaid and the Tories will be the beneficiaries, in roughly equal measure.
The Tories may overtake Plaid in terms of votes (as suggested on Labour blogs), but that is not inconsistent with Plaid having a good election.
78. 76 Re: the Judges.
Tom Watson and British Bull’ foundation suggest that Judge Rogers could well be related to former Conservtive AM Peter Rogers. An amusing piece on this can be found here: http://britishbullshitfoundation.blogspot.com/2007/01/judges-are-revolting-what-follows-is.html#links
Sorry don’t know how to do hyperlinks.
Incidentally Guido Fawkes is carrying a leaked PDF detailing Peter Hain’s supporters.
Gwynfa Thanks for that. How do you see Plaid’s chances? Could they repeat their successes of yesteryear in the Valleys? Although the Tories can pick up two or three seats, I would presume that only Plaid could conceivably threaten Labour in a substantial way? You say Labour would be relieved ‘only’ to lose five Senydd seats. What would be a credible worst case scenarion for Labour? I take it for granted that Labour will use control of the Senydd. Does that mean a Plaid/Tory/LD coalition?
81. I wouldnt read to much into it. Reid is an easy target and this whole situation with crime is something that really concerns its readers big style.
Could it be a move designed to crush Reid to help Gordon? Maybe but its just as likely that its just to crush Reid because he’s the head honcho at one seriously fecked up department.
83. Gwynfa, it’s clear to you, but not to me.
I read similar things in the run up of 2005 GE, but in the end Plaid failed to gain seats from Labour and ended up losing a seat to Libdems.
81. And yet they found room in jail for the royal editor of the NOTW! The letter Reid sent the judges this year was quite unexceptional. Their behaviour seems to be payback instead for an intervention he made last year re sentencing of paedophiles. And they certainly seem to think this is the moment to get him.
Your point about the Sun is spot on though. They’ve clearly made some sort of decision who to back.
Would any of this be happening if Blair had not insisted on a long goodbye? I’m pretty sure no future government is going to try to emulate the long transition!
Re 72, mark, i agree with that, but it is going to hit their councilor base very very hard.
A lot of people who voted Labour in 1983 are now dead. It is not only the Tories that lose voters that way. The Great Reaper is quite impartial.
Comparing today’s poll to Jan 2003 Yougov telegraph poll
Con Lab LD
2003 32 36 24
change 19% -14% -25%
The surprise is the drop in the LD vote, of course I am quoting “rounded” percentages and my change percentages are not percentage points.
If replicated in Con/LD councillor fights the changes would be huge.
Snowflake. you are so right when you say “This is speculation of course, no one knows yet what Mr Brown intends”.
We have no idea what he will do as PM, what changes he will make, what his new policies will be. Just that there will be a ‘dynamic’ first hundred days.
Extraordinary from a party that has gone on and on about the ‘policy lite’ leader of the opposition.
Surely, if his mass-mailed letters to judges and magistrates were not designed to achieve the results which commentators (and judges!) have alleged, irrespective of whether or not such effects have been achieved, John Reid should be reported to the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards for deliberate waste of public money?
87. I don’t think it is useful to compare Westminster elections with Senedd elections. I think [1] people are much more likely to vote Plaid in the latter, and [2] differential turn-out also favors Plaid in the latter — compare, for example, the Senedd/Westminster results in CW&PS or Conwy.
I think if there is a low turn-out, and if the bad news continues to mount for Labour, then Plaid could take some Valley seats.
I agree that Plaid did not have a good General Election — but Ceredigion & Ynys Mon remain very marginal. The quality of the candidates matters a lot in West Wales — so I’d guess that Labour held on in Ynys Mon because Albert Owen is perceived to be a first-rate constituency MP.
Given Guido’s leak of Peter Hain’s deputy leadership plans can anyone comment on what that might do for Lab Deputy Leadership odds? Especially interested in Nick Palmer’s views - allegedly ready to go public in support…
94.”don’t think it is useful to compare Westminster elections with Senedd elections. I think [1] people are much more likely to vote Plaid in the latter”
yes, but the trend can alwaus be noted
“[2] differential turn-out also favors Plaid in the latter ”
yes, I agree. Differential turnout should favour Plaid
95.”Especially interested in Nick Palmer’s views - allegedly ready to go public in support”
He has already gone public in his support of Hain.
Actually some people not ready to go public in that document have gone public anyway
91 But as I have pointed out time and again local elections bear no relation to opinion poll figures just look at the 2003 local election results in my post 72 compared to the Jan 2003 Yougov poll and why selectively quote Yougov , ICM in Jan 2003 had LibDems at 21% , last week 23% an increase by your measure of 10% .
95 - Nick has already declared his support for Hain.
93. It’s the Home Secretary’s job to warn the judges if there is a potential problem with prison places (how else are they supposed to learn this, through ESP?). So John Reid was just fulfilling part of his job.
And given they found room in jail for the editor of the NOTW, the crisis with prison places isn’t as acute as the grandstanding over the paedophile cases make out (unless you are of the opinion that the royal editor of the NOTW is a greater threat to the public than paedophiles). Which means that the judges are trying to make a political point. They’ve read the stories about Brown’s historic disagreements with Reid, and they are taking advantage of Blair’s weakness, and trying to seize the moment to engineer Reid out of his job.
85 Ignoring the list seats for now, Labour look certain to lose Cardiff North & Clwyd West to Conservative; Llanelli to Plaid; Aberconwy & CWSP to either Plaid or Conservative.
A bad labour/good Conservative night would also deliver Delyn & Vale of Glamorgan.
Labour meltdown could see Rhondda, Caerphilly, Cynon Valley, Neath, Ogmore & Islwyn move to Plaid, and Vale of Clwyd & Clwyd South to Conservatives; Swansea West could go Plaid or Liberal; Bridgend & Newport West could go Liberal or Conservative
But a lot of changes will be balanced against the regional lists.
At the moment things seem to be halfway to Labour meltdown, but not quite there yet, and I predict Labour 24 Plaid 15 Conservative 13 Liberals 8 Other 2
Tomorrow that might change
Snowflake, of course some of the judges are doing that.
Just as some of his civil servants are releasing info on all the other bad things going on.
Reid went in and berated the judges and civil servants and they are just getting their own back.
Understandable and predictable.
101.” CWSP to either Plaid or Conservative”
the tories are having lots of troubles in Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/wales/6299647.stm
101 Missed Preseli - That is looking likely to move to Blue.
103 _ i think Plaid already have it, but I am just trying to balance my optimism
Snowflake judges are meant to be impartial deliverers of justice that is equal for all. They are not supposed to jail someone for a crime this week and not someone else for the same crime the following week simply because Labour Home Secretaries over the last decade have messed up the prison building programme.
Judges must follow the sentencing guidelines (which have not changed) and the government provide the facilities for the penalties to be enforced.
Justice must not be compromised because of government incompetence.
The response from Lib dems about this yougov poll is as hilarious as ever. The report in the telegraph that I glanced through this morning was comparing current polling data to the general election. It also said that the other parties were up from the GE quoting support for Plaid and the SNp. The first pollster to refer to Plaid incidently.
I was at the Plaid campaign launch last week and the press reception aferward. Most of the journalists were saying they had been surprised by the much more professional approach of Plaid and that the other parties were equally surprised. many had started to believe their own propaganda about Plaid being in permannet decline. A bonkers argument based on us not matching our previous best ever result.
I was phoned by my “Local Labour party” yesterday. They had problems pronouncing Plaid Cymru and Llandudno either their volunteer was from the north of England and a local resident or more likely it was the national call centre. They were using the same approach as is Bleanau Gwent so I suspect the latter. This will annoy a chunk of the Labour vote that is either welsh speaking or thinks of itself as being Welsh first then british.
Their are rumour of private polls undertaken by the Tories that show them only matching the level of support they had in 2003. They did have a very good result in 2003 and although I suspect they are up slightly its not enough to win them many more seats.
An earlier poster pointed out that Labour won almost every close battle in wales in 2003. In certain Plaid seats this was due to mistakes made on the ground. Our “groundwar” is vastly superior to 2003 as is our “airwar”. In 2006 we delivered 1,000,000 leaflets in Wales in 2002 I doubt we delivered 100,000.
In my own seat, Vale of Clwyd, we are confident of passing our 2003 result which 3900/19.5% have a rising membership and more funds than ever before. We are ranked as seventh out of nine in North Wales in terms of last times result. The campaign in Clwyd west and Aberconwy is going even better than in my seat.
Sorry for the long post but my computer is in the repair shop hence having to use the library!
Re 98 Mark I just quoted the survey by the same firm, in same paper, at same point of 2003.
I do believe that the shift in people voting intentions can give an indication of how they are likely to vote the closer we get to May 3. At present it is Con UP, Lab down and LD down on May 2003.
LD voting intention in Jan 2003 ranged from 21% to 25%. Lab 36% to 43% and Conservative 30% to 32%.
100.
“they found room in jail for the editor of the NOTW”
Wishful thinking! It was a journo they jailed. The editor only resigned.
108 HF - OK look at opinion polls in June 2004 both had Labour
It will be interesting to see what repercussions the publication of Hain’s list has, especially as it contains the names of a number of Labour Party staff who are definitely not supposed to take sides. It also contains a people who may have also indicated support for other candidates. I suspect that someone will have a bit of apologising to do.
Also, to only have 31 MPs at this stage is not a fantastic endorsement for someone of Hain’s ’seniority’. I’m very glad I don’t have any money on him…
107 Good luck in Vale Of Clwyd, Mark.
Having downloaded Hain’s document from Guido, I read on page 3 with much interest:
“Piara Khabra: Ealing Southall — the largest constituency in the country”
Good to see that Peter is as at ease with the geography of England as that of Wales.
Anyone betting on the super casino licence which ends tomorrow ?
Blackpool is the favourite @1.55
Greenwich is still 2.52 (despite the STele saying it had won) - this gov has the brassneck to ignore any sleaze backlash.
Glasgow is in to 17s - could be a sop to Scotland to shore up the vote ?
Mancs at 11 - any news on this ?
40+ the rest
The Scotsman reports that “the Prime Minister’s pollster, Philip Gould, dismissed the significance of today’s figures. He said: …….”Really, at this stage in the Parliament, with the press that we have been getting, the Conservatives should be much, much further ahead.”
I have heard Labour politicians say this before, as if the fact that the Tories are only 7 points in front and not 10 points somehow means that everything is fundamentally OK for Labour.
I admit to not understanding this logic.
Isn’t it complacency and isn’t that the father of failure?
110 cont - HF - Ok look at the opinion polls in June 2004 both ICM and Yougov had Con at 31/34 Labour at 33/34 and LibDems at 21/22 yet the locals showed a significant swing from Labour to LibDem compared to 2003 and in May last year opinion polls had Con at 34/35 Labour at 32 and LibDems 18 on Yougov and 24 ICM . There was a small improvement on Labour’s performance over 2004 against both Conservative and LibDem .
110 cont - HF - Ok look at the opinion polls in June 2004 both ICM and Yougov had Con at 31/34 Labour at 33/34 and LibDems at 21/22 yet the locals showed a significant swing from Labour to LibDem compared to 2003 and in May last year opinion polls had Con at 34/35 Labour at 32 and LibDems 18 on Yougov and 24 ICM . There was a small improvement on Labour’s performance over 2004 against both Conservative and LibDem .
I really thought this was Rod Stewart for a moment. Uncanny.
http://news.scotsman.com/politics.cfm?id=148662007
Re Hain’s document
The “No…Chris Bryant (HH)” means that Bryant is backing Harriet Harman?
117. Is she trying to wake up Maggie ?
111.”It also contains a people who may have also indicated support for other candidates”
Gordon Banks is a Benn’s supporter
111. I genuinely feel sorry for Peter Hain’s campaign team. I think it could harm his candidacy a number of ways:
- sign of weakness only 31 mps (including some very, very soft support among that)
- less likely to attract new MPs and alerts other candidates to who they think is ‘up for grabs’
- general incompetence (his team really should be more capable and trustworthy than leaving this around)
- harm GMB support (they’re not at all happy that staff are involved and undermines Paul Kenny’s negotiations - expect them to back off further)
- makes labour party staff members more cautious about getting involved (they shouldn’t be anyway, but there’s bound to be complaints go in and they’ll be warned off)
I predict that several MPs on Hain’s list will now end up backing other candidates and that Hain will certainly not make the ballot. The weaknesses of his candidacy has been exposed.
I’m not a Hain fan but certainly admire some of his qualities. The deputy leadership contest has showed an array of strands in the party and some talented potential deputy leaders. Whatever the politics of the deputy leadership candidacy, whoever leaked this to Guido should be seriously disciplined if they are a labour party member.
Not sure if this has done the rounds yet (and I haven’t tested it to see if it works) but a there’s a ‘posh’ version of Chris A’s Scottish seat predictor here.
Again apologies if this is repeating things (I’ve been away a while) but do any Scottish Tory contributors have views on the regional list outcomes?
People are saying here Labour are rock bottom, imploding etc. and can only hang on to core tribal vote.
I’m floating but don’t really see it that way. Iraq was voted for by the Tories and we’ve had a GE since that mistake. Sleaze doesn’t seem to me to be big factor as people are are smart enough to realise that will happen with any party. So I look to policy. Labour want to deny the Catholic adoption agencies an exemption from anti-discrimination laws (which I support). But the Tories and Lib Dems have yet to come with a position. How as a floating voter can I vote for a party with no opinion!
Spectacularly O/T, but this all-party petition might appeal to a number of posters here….
http://petitions.pm.gov.uk/letterboxes/
120. yes, Banks backed Benn in a letter to the Guardian:
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labour/comment/0,,1964836,00.html
Sell Hain, buy Cruddas.
123. A*troturf alert…unknown poster describing self as ‘a floating voter’….
Spectacularly off-thread, but the person writing the BBC Sports website clearly has no geographical knowledge whatsoever. The FA Cup draw write-up contains the line
“Preston will host neighbours Manchester City,…” How far away do you have to be before no longer being classified as a ‘neighbour’?
can I just say all this webcameron new media nonsense - the tory web site still hasn’t posted the text of his speech from earlier today.
128 - Oops… forgot to close the link - apologies :blush: (Any chance of tidying it up Mike…)
114 “And why beholdest thou the mote that is in thy brother’s eye, but considerest not the beam that is in thine own eye?” (Matthew 7:3)
124 - Some work required my company to deliver leaflets to a new large housing estate of mixed builders outside Aberdeen last year (I know, I need to set my aspirations higher…!) and so I sympathize with the aims of the petition despite it being totally daft.
As with many things, the relative wealth of the owner can be easily gaged by the quality of letterbox (not to mention incidental things like…errr… size of house, number of cars etc).
I have been reading through the Hain document on Guido’s site, and you really have to laugh!
Looks like the tan man is sunk!
133. Nonsense - I’m sure Nick Palmer’s personal correspondence shows a surge of support for Peter Hain.
Re 134, ROFLMAO
One of Hain’s problems is illustrated by a story from a ministerial Christmas party when his assertion that he was a radical was rebutted by a voice saying “Not any longer, you’re not”.
The voice was challenged by a neighbour asking who the voice was to challenge the minster. Reply, “His mother”.
I think looking through Hain’s support, if he didn’t make the ballot the MPs would split fairly evenly between Cruddas and Benn, though I can imagine a few Blairites like Shaun Woodward moving to Alan Johnson. This could really boost Benn’s bid the most which has from what I understand also has struggled to get near the 44 MPs required.
But on reflection I think this will only really serious have implications for Hain if this is picked up by say a broadsheet. If it’s confined to the blogosphere then he could recover from this after a few blushes. If a national newspaper runs with it however, then things will surely begin to unravel. One thing I didn’t mention earlier, which is a big point in campaigns like this, is that it could seriously affect morale. People in the Hain staff team could well turn on each other as they try and find out who leaked this to Guido. Leaking is a bloody awful practice.
New thread. “Was Alistair Campbell behind the move to get Gordon”.
136.
To paraphrase Carole King:
“Your’e so Hain.
You probably think this Party’s about you… don’t you?”
137.”But on reflection I think this will only really serious have implications for Hain if this is picked up by say a broadsheet. If it’s confined to the blogosphere then he could recover from this after a few blushes. If a national newspaper runs with it however, then things will surely begin to unravel”
HernyG, like you noted on Luke Akehurst blog, imagine what the next edition of Tribune can be!
I wouldn’t surprised if someone on the NEC (like Peter Willsman) will officially complain about the party staff names being listed.
133.
and David Bowie:
“There’s a Tan Man…waiting in the sky,
He think’s you’d like to meet him, but I know you’d rather die..”
142.
“someone on the NEC… will officially complain about the party staff names being listed.”
with others probably moaning about the one’s who’ve been left off the list!