Is this the Tory right’s stick to beat Cameron with?
January 30th, 2007
Why is UKIP failing to improve its poll ratings?
By any standards it’s been a big month for the United Kingdom Independence Party and its outspoken leader Nigel Farage. For during January the party has seen more coverage than at any time since June 2004 when it pushed the Lib Dems into fourth place in the Euro Elections.
For UKIP has taken on a role much bigger than just opposing Britain’s membership of the EU - it’s now become the stick for the Conservative right to beat David Cameron with. If the leader wanders too far “off message” then they threaten to switch to Farage’s party.
So it has been over the past few weeks with the defection of two Tory peers and the former Thatcherite economist Tim Congdon. On top of that there’s been the declaration of possible support for UKIP by two millionaire ex-Tory donors and the relentless day by day support in the Daily Telegraph.
With all of this you would have thought that there would have been some progress for UKIP in the polls. And if something was going to register then you would have expected it to have been picked up by YouGov - the pollster that first detected the huge surge for the party ahead of June 2004 elections.
But it didn’t happen. The change in the party’s fortunes has been almost zilch. UKIP is still finding it hard to extend its appeal beyond white males in their late middle age
Some analysis of what’s been going on shows the scale of the problem. For the data from the month’s three published polls should make worrying reading for those who believe that a boost for UKIP will keep Cameron’s Conservatives on the straight and narrow.
Populus recorded a drop from 2% to 1% with five out out of the seven supporters (not percentages you should note) being male.
ICM discovered that 11 people in its survey said they had voted UKIP at the 2005 General but only 3 were ready to do so now - all of them male.
YouGov found an unchanged 3% UKIP support level - the same as it has been for several months with the men, as ever, outnumbering women.
Another trend in the polls is that what support there for the Anti-EU party is not coming from the younger age groups with very few of those under 35 saying they are supporters. There is also an almost total lack of response to the party in Scotland.
How frustrating this must be for the Simon Heffers of this world. Unless UKIP is seen to be increasing its support and is a threat to the Tories then their main anti-Cameron weapon is just about useless. Judging by the January polls that’s the way it is going at the moment.
Mike Smithson
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“There is also an almost total lack of response to the party in Scotland.”
There is a risible level of support for both the BNP and UKIP in Scotland. They will probably both become increasingly attracted to the opportunities presented by the steady rise in English nationalism. There are currently several small English nationalist parties, with the most established perhaps being the English Democrats. Will some of these fringe parties perhaps start to consider working together? The left is notorious for being fragmented, but so is the right.
UK GE 2005 in Scotland:
UKIP: 8th place, 0.38% (+0.24%)
BNP: 12th place, 0.07% (n/a)
I cannot recall a single Scottish opinion poll which has ever found a single BNP or UKIP voter. Their support is quite literally invisible.
UKIP has managed to field only 1 council by-election candidate in Scotland since May 2003 (we have had 45 by-elections during that period). That candidate managed to garner 4 - I repeat - four - votes!!
The BNP also only had 1 candidate out of the 45 council by-elections since 2003. Their candidate did an awful lot better - they managed 23 votes.
Gawd, Mike, all the UKIP mob that bob up on ConHome will come flocking to this thread soon…
As I’ve said repeatedly, I don’t see mass defections to UKIP as either likely or ‘the’ problem.(Even though UKIP @ just 2% in the Polls will continue to damage us and could ensure a LAbour majority next time up)
The problem remains that many on the right of the party will abstain if the current liberal leaning drift continues and that those who particularly care (who are by definition Conservative activists)will withhold their support/help.
If you can get them Mike, I would be fascinated to see Party memberships trends for all three parties since the May 05 GE.
I suspect they will confirm my impression that the current direction of the leadership remains at loggerheads with and is driving away activists.
I think some “on the right of the party” would prefer it if the Conservative party got 25% and UKIP got 0%. You can’t operate an entire political strategy designed for one percent of the population, and a somewhat electorally insignificant section of the population at that. The critics persist in the ludicrous idea that you can make public statements to appease potential defectors without affecting your overall electoral pitch.
cameron has moved too far into the left i often wonder if he is not labour in blue.the only reason why most conservatives still vote is because they want to get rid of this sick labour govt.cameron should go.david davis is way more sensible.he should have been leader instead of this pretty face clown.
You can’t expect a protest vote - which is what much of the current Tory ratings represent - to suddenly transfer to another protest vote, just when the current govt kicking is actually providing satisfying poll results for those wanting to moan about the govt.
The numbers of people who want to give the Tories a kicking more than to give the govt a kicking must be fairly minimal at the moment, so apart from high profile defections amongst those who live and breath politics, for the person in the street who wants to register a safe complaint about the govt the Tories are the only show in town.
Come an election, I would guess much of the anti-Labour protest voice will revert to Labour, whilst the UKIP vote will continue to collect those who want to protest at all the main parties.
As I’ve said before - UKIP tends to take most votes from the Libs as it offers a more radical protest vote than simply voting for the third party.
And far from harming the Tories, the tory vote % actually increased more, comapred to 2001, in seats where UKIP stood than in seats where UKIP didn’t have a candidate.
Alex, there may be something in what you say.
What some “on the right of the party” would I’m sure come straight back at you with is that as they have spent their entire lives fighting against (as they see it)liberal leaning administrations that doesn’t say, think or act in accordance with their own views, beliefs and wishes, then why on earth should they vote for one now masquerading under n a pale blue banner.
I don’t see it that starkly and continue to hope against hope that some accomodation can be reached between the two points of view before things reach that critical breaking point.
With the management seemingly still determined to force a ‘Clause 4′ moment with the ‘right’ the chances don’t however look good.
The arrogance of some devotees to the NuCam project in expecting blind adherence from the entire membership to a foreign and unwelcome agenda remains breathtaking.
Until all concerned get it into their heads that we do have minds of our own and are not going to meekly be driven to where we don’t want to go, internally at least, things will remain tense.
If Conservative ratings in the polls begin to slide and the entire project is seen to have been for nothing, God help us all.
Not UK Independence but back to Wales - check out
http://independent-wales.blogspot.com/
Support for Welsh independence is growing strongly….
I think that UKIP’s progress, or lack of progress, is developing into one of the biggest elements in British politics. As long as the numbers stay where they are then Cameron is OK. But if/when the UKIP share starts to grow then the pressure would really build on the Tory leader.
My view of yesterday’s coverage of YouGov in the Daily Telegraph is that the paper was expecting that its pro-UKIP approach would have an impact. In fact it did not and the paper was made to look faintly ridiculous.
9 - The Telegraph looking ridiculous? Never - surely!
7 - Tory Boy “The arrogance of some devotees to the NuCam project in expecting blind adherence from the entire membership to a foreign and unwelcome agenda remains breathtaking.
Until all concerned get it into their heads that we do have minds of our own and are not going to meekly be driven to where we don’t want to go, internally at least, things will remain tense.”
I have long argued on here (and been sniped at for it) that the Cameron Conundrum will have be faced at some point because talking Liberal does not square with a membership and core vote who want a Conservative agenda. I suspect this moment will come if Cameron actually unveils (any) Liberal policies, as opposed to just vague talk about aspirations.
Have you any sense of how widespread your views are?
For the sake of balance, I was genuinely surprised when Ming won the Tax vote at our party conference as I suspected that opposition to what was being spun as the “Orange Book Agenda” was more widespread then it actually appeared.
The Labour experience is probably quite a reasonable guide to what happens if an opposition party shifts its perceived image to the centre under new leadership. The more ideological members object vocally, but are constrained by the long-standing habit of wanting to get the government out. The leadership says it’s more important to get votes from the Government (net gain 2) than satisfy members who have nowhere else significant to go (net loss 1). A proportion of the faithful then start not renewing membership or renewing but becoming passive. The process only really gathers steam if the party takes power and continues on a centrist course: there is then a substantial drain of members, and those who remain are either hardened loyalists who will put up with most things or new members who positively like the new stance. At that point the party has changed irrevocably, and protest parties like UKIP can do very well if there’s a big issue for them (a la Galloway).
There’s no guarantee that any part of this repeats itself, of course. I believe that Tory membership has in fact slightly declined in the last year, so the process has started earlier than it did with New labour, where membership continued to shoot up until it peaked around 1997 (”Aargh! We’re in government and Nirvana hasn’t arrived!”).
Picking up a loose end from yesterday: the ever-indignant Dr Barry thinks I post too often and is worried I don’t work hard enough. It’s good of him to take time out from operating to look after Broxtowe voters.
I work at least 12 hours most days, and usually a third or more is in front of the computer, dealing with casework or writing articles and leaflets. I check out pb.com from time to time to see if there’s anything happening, and if someone raises an issue on which I can comment I chip in. It’s not predictable (I may disappear for a couple of days if things are especially busy) but it also doesn’t take much time. I recommend it to other MPs - discussion here is simply a pleasant short break.
12. Agreed Nick P. The so-called ‘conundrum’ dear Tabman alludes to will not - if ever - need to be faced for years. About a decade, if Labour’s experience is anything to go by. I think most Tories would settle for that.
Tabman, but I am sorry to disappoint you, Cameron is not at odds with the majority of his membership. He won election in a landslide, Built to Last received another overwhelming approval vote, and actual opinion polls show Conservatives have the highest satisfaction rate with their leader.
The happy majority are quieter than the handful of malcontents, but the polls show us just how large their numbers are.
Nick Palmer: I wouldn’t worry too much about Dr. Barry. There is nothing more unattractive than somebody pretending to be apolitical and then jostling and jockeying for position like the worst career climber of the greasy pole.
Barry is a nakedly ambitious politican. It’s very obvious.
[11] I agree, up to a point. I think Cameron knows full well that there isn’t a flagship policy out there waiting to be unveiled to “oohs and aahs” on the model of Thatcher scything through the TUs and Council housing after 1979. He isn’t going to leave the EU, he isn’t going to abolish Bank independence (although that only worries real anoraks, not real voters) - look at the Tory blogosphere’s attacks on Labour - they’re all about performance, not policy direction.
The Conundrum will not have to be faced until there’s a Cameron government, and even then it will take a couple of years for the honeymoon to wear off. But when the activist base realise that its policies aren’t that different from Blair’s, and that the prisons are still overcrowded, “green” issues still as intractable, and taxes much the same… then Tory MPs will be glad of all the devices to support incumbents that Labour thoughtfully left behind for them …
14. Commentator, do you know at what time the James Gray result is expected? (I don’t mean tha exact time, but if it’ll be out in the afternoon or tonight)
Hi Tabman,
May I be the first to acknowledge your consistency.I think Nick has outlined is fairly well.
Among the activists I know, I would say the division is a fairly even three way split (not uninterestingly bearing in mind the the leadership result in Dec 05) between “My party right or wrong”
“I voted for Cameron but I’m a bit worried where he’s taking us” and ” I always knew Davis was the better long term bet”.
I think the odd defection by either the odd Peer (who can and are
quite unfairly then painted as being dotty) or the occasional significant player like Tim Congdon / Simon Heffer (who people tend not to ridicule or bully as much as they know they can fight back aplenty)remain of interest to anoraks like us, but it would take elected MP’s to cross the floor before the public really sat up and began to take an interest.
Fortunately, Turkey’s don’t vote for Christmas and we’ve still got a window of opportunity to sit down and hammer out a credible compromise that all activists are happy with and can sign up to.
I’ve not seen any research on the subject, but I’d be fascinated to see an opinion poll amoung Conservative Members who voted in the December 2005 leadership elections comparing who they voted for at the time versus who, with the power of hindsight, they would have voted for given their time again.
I suspect the answer would make pretty interesting reading.
14 Commentator,
“Built to Last received another overwhelming approval vote”
Err What percentage of the membership voted for it exactly ?
How big do you think the vote against would have been if the ballot papers weren’t all numbered in the manner they were ?
17 - Cameron and Cameron - despite some misgivings!
The recognisable defections that we have seen to UKIP (with rumours of Lord Young next) are all leading members of Bruges and/or TFA.
It does look like a concerted effort from a small group of Eurosceptics, many of whom actually took us this far into Europe, but they are “yesterdays men” and there is a limited number of them.
UKIP’s average age is 70+ whereas for the Conservatives it is in the mid-50s and getting younger mainly through the growth of Conservative Future.
[17] Good analysis of the future of party membership from Nick Palmer, doubt anyone of any colour will take issue with it.
One curiosity is that Cameron might prefer not to win too many seats next time.
A majority of, say 15-20, with an Opposition licking its wounds after its longest ever spell in office, and a Lib Dem Parliamentary Party halved in size (which seems much more likely than not), is a “full term” mandate replete with elephant traps.
On the other hand, eighteen months of minority government followed by a second election (which only the Tories can afford to fight properly) producing a landslide of 1983/97 proportions is surely far far more attractive. So maybe if UKIP deny the Tories a dozen seats or so next time, it’ll be what Cameron really needs.
20. Yes the ‘defections’ in reality signal the death knell of UKIP as a truly seperate political party, and its complete transformation into a Tory pressure group (which to some extent it all always has been) - a bit like a modern-day version of the League of Empire Loyalists.
21 - You still going on about UKIP costing the tories seats?
Where is the evidence for this? It actually seems the reverse to me - see Geddon and Tonge page 17!
I’m certain in the Bunkers of Victoria Street there would be nods of assent to that IA.
It would be interesting to see the internal dynamics of the Party during those 18 months.
Don’t mind admitting I haven’t got a clue which way things would go.
I suspect Policy development between now and the first election would be key to determining this outcome.
18.!”How big do you think the vote against would have been if the ballot papers weren’t all numbered in the manner they were ?”
how were they numbered?
The main reason UKIP is not growing is that its local base is weak and has got weaker. It is its failure to connect with its local base that has led to the splits and falls in its membership from 28,000 to 17,000 (UKIP figures).
This can be contrasted with the BNP which has focused on building up its local base in a focused manner. BNP has more councillors than UKIP.
I believe that the recent uplift in LD fortunes is connected with them re-starting Focus leaflets and taking up space in local newspapers. LDs focus on building the local base.
UKIP however seems to believe that as long as it can attract a few of “yesterday’s men” that this will bring the masses flocking to them. Their Leadership issues orders for 2,500 candidates to stand this May, ignoring the reality that it struggled to find 400 candidates last time. A bit like a certain dictator ordering around non-existent armies in the last war.
Some new voting “experiments” next May (and Mike Smithson can vote earlier and give an autograph)http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=432312&in_page_id=1770
27 ops, bad editing:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=432312&in_page_id=1770
26. Yes - and the BNP has actually won most of the seats its councillors hold as well, rather than getting them through defection. This stark difference will not be lost on the dwindling band of UKIP footsoldiers. There has already been one notable defection to the BNP in the SW, and there are likely to be more.
Cameron is taking a lot of risks- which is not a bad thing. However I think the danger is not really from large scale defections to UKIP- it is the disaffection of the activists who stay that may become the issue.
The symbolic stuff- gay adoption etc- certainly won’t bother the Libertarians, and the Tombstone group have been marginalised for some time. The issues that may lead both the social Conservatives and Libertarians into open revolt are economic ones: unless Tory economic policy starts to look more crunchy, they are going to get very angry. At the moment these policies-such as they exist- are as wet as an otter’s pocket.
26 “UKIP however seems to believe that as long as it can attract a few of “yesterday’s men” that this will bring the masses flocking to them.”
It could be argued that this top-down approach contributed to the demise of the SDP
I really don’t understand why we even debate UKIP. As Mike said, they are a statistical insignificance. They might, and I do mean might, reappear as a difficulty at the Euro elections in 2009, but I really cannot see them causing any great problems before then.
As far as I am concerned they are simply those “yesterday’s men” who refused to go quietly.
I mean honestly, who goes out to prove they’re not batty as a fruit cake by driving down the street in an armoured personnel carrier?
Now back to the real enemy of Conservative politics - fighting the Lib Dems! I agree with HF that the reason we saw a slight rise in the LD vote in the polls this month is that whilst most Conservative offices are dealing with membership numbers and 100 club subscriptions (and are far too busy to deal with little things like campaigning) the LDs are out delivering Focus leaflets. My local LDs have had a number of letters in the paper on various subjects and started a campaign on dentists. All basic stuff. Meanwhile most of my colleagues are still getting over Christmas and working on running councils.
I might point out that I have started canvassing, which scared the hell out of my agent, let alone the opposition! Irritating the electorate is what one of my colleagues called it…
Thanks Andrea. In May in Bedford we also have the Mayoral election where the incumbent is a former newspaper owner who ran four years ago as an independent. The Lib Dems came second with the Tories third and Labour fourth.
I would be very surprised if Labour do any better this time which might not bode well for the General Election in the main Bedford seat which they will be defending.
In my view our friend and Nick Palmer irritant, Dr. Barry Monks should also have put himself forward for the mayoralty on the “save Bedford Hospital” ticket. It would have given him profile ahead of the General Election and might well have undermined the incumbent.
As for the voting system this might well boost turnout.
As for the General Election Monks has the potential to take votes from all main parties but mainly from Labour. My dream result is a Lib Dem victory with 26% of the vote.
[32] Ben, I’d like to commiserate with your Agent. Still, maybe you know something s/he doesn’t - i.e., that in your neck of the woods nobody changes their mind between January and May
4.Alex, you are absolutely correct.
“with the defection of two Tory peers”, the two peer’s in question lost the Conservative whip back in 2004.
What was interesting to see in the Hucknall result last week, was that despite UKIP standing and taking 8% the Conservatives took the seat of Labour. I would say that we gain more votes than we lose by appealing to former voter’s who have moved to the Libdems or Labour in the last 15 years.
I think that the lurch to the right in previous elections in an attempt to stop people defecting to UKIP is one of the main reasons the party did not perform better and has now left us with a mountain to climb.
Also it has to be noted that UKIP are active in only some area’s and IIRC they tend to be where the Conservative vote is already solid and increasing.
““The arrogance of some devotees to the NuCam project in expecting blind adherence from the entire membership to a foreign and unwelcome agenda remains breathtaking.” Tabman, you seem to forget that the overwhelming vote for Cameron in the leadership contest was in no small way down to the majority realising that they had to change if they wanted to have a realistic chance of winning an election. You sound like some of the malcontent’s on ConHom, and like them I suspect that Cameron would not have been your first choice as a Libdem supporter.
Interesting article Mike. In many ways UKIP has not no wind in its sails. Unfortunately the BNP has which ahs to be a major concern.
If the BNP and UKIp merged there could be bigger problems. We will have to see though.
UKIP a threat - you must be joking?
However, they still have the capacity to cause trouble in the 2008 Euro elections.
Surely this has to be one of Cams minefields to navigate. Perhaps supporting the EU constitution could be his clause 4 moment.
36. A link up some sorts has been mooted in the past…but it seems more likely that a chunk of UKIP activists will migrate to the BNP ‘under the radar’, while much of the leadership (sic) degenerates into a Tory pressure group.
Re. 21, ‘followed by a landslide of 83/97 proportions’ Or 1966 (97), the last time a government with a small majority waited eighteen months to call a second election.
Re. 3 and abstensions, I remember that, in 97, only some of the Tory haemorrhage (a drop of 9%) was accounted for by Labour’s rise in vote share (a rise of 7%), while the LD share of the vote fell, so there’s probably some truth in the claim that many Tories just stayed at home.
Not that I believe for a moment that the Tories are heading for another 97.
James Gray’s fate is at noon
33
Ah A Russell Johnston landslide
Perhaps it is good for politics if there was a proper UK party between the Tories and the BNP. It would add a bit of balance to the LD/Labour pairing on the left.
33.My surname is Monk (i.e. I am singular, although not unique) not Monks.
Thanks for the plug.
Uniquely in Bedford in May the ballot paper will also have “none of the above” as an option. I suspect that Mr None of the Above will win, which might create a constitutional problem
Re 15, Innocent, “The Conundrum will not have to be faced until there’s a Cameron government, and even then it will take a couple of years for the honeymoon to wear off. But when the activist base realise that its policies aren’t that different from Blair’s, and that the prisons are still overcrowded, “green” issues still as intractable, and taxes much the same… then Tory MPs will be glad of all the devices to support incumbents that Labour thoughtfully left behind for them …”
OT (not entirely)
Latest tranche of Tory selections announced
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/goldlist/2007/01/25_seats_in_lat.html
[42] No, Jonathan, what is good for politics (and for all of us) is that the pedlars of fear and hatred should be as disorganised as possible, preferably fighting each other like the proverbial ferrets in a sack.
[44] Cheers, Benedict - gotta dash now, catch you all later…
Re 19, RikW, I voted Davis, I have been pleasently surprised by Cameron. However I do have reservations now that I did not have a month ago.
I see the betfair casino market is suspended - any word on the closing prices ?
I had a small wager on Greenwich..
48 Jamie
Greenwich shortened a bit towards the end but Blackpool remained favorite. I think the best back prices were 1.67 (Bl) and 2.02 (Gr).
I too backed Gr - fortunately to small stakes. I think it will be Blackpool but we’ll know at 11am.
Btw does anybody know what Jack Nicklaus is doing in the picture at the head of this thread?
47 This is an interesting comment. Why? If you believe yougov, A noticeable amount of gloss came off Cameron during the last month.
Given previous form on yougov I assumed that the reason was simply that the Tory part of their panel were most likely to be taking skiing holidays.
http://www.yougov.com/archives/pdf/Ptables_20070126.pdf
(I suspect that Davis threatens Cameron much more than UKIP does.)
Max Hastings has a good article in the Guardian which neatly ties in with today’s thread.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,2001611,00.html?gusrc=rss&feed=1
49. Ta - still not given up on my Greenwich bet - Prezza did invest a lot of time - and rumours persist that the work has started.
Re: UKIP, remember that the surge in support for Euros ‘04 was on the back of millions of pounds of advertising. don’t underestimate what could happen in future if UKIP find another pot of xenophobic gold under the Tory millionaire rainbow…
On today’s main betting story, I am hoping that Blackpool wins the casino - it deserves it because it really is a dump these days.
However… Despite my libertarian inspired belief that new casinos should be allowed because rational humans are free to waste their money in any way they see fit, I am shocked and, yes, appalled to see that the Labour government is to remove the ban on gambling companies touting for business on TV:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/01/30/ngamble30.xml
It is one thing to allow people the freedom to waste their money in stupid ways, and to risk ruining themselves in addiction if they wish and know the risks. It is quite another thing to allow the massive might of the gambling industry to ply its expert marketing skills onto the airwaves to entice people into addiction. The exact same argument that applies to smoking should apply here: if people want to ruin their own health, fine; but if huge corporations want to spend millions on luring the most vulnerable in society to their doom, that is where we should draw the line and say unacceptable - we the government are here to prevent that.
I have supported the Labour government’s relaxation of gambling and drinking hours on libertarian grounds. But I have to say I find the way that the alcohol industry and US gambling industry have been driving the government’s agenda at will and at leisure is actually quite a sickening spectacle. There has never been a government so soft and pliable in the face of big external interests, whether it be the Whitehouse, or whatever big business has come knocking on number 10 today.
There is a smell of corruption and sleaze about this, and while in the Major years the sleaze never made it right to the top, today I dont think that is true…
Re 54, MBoy, I agree about the gambling advertising. Besides which gambling like alchoholism destroys familes in wasy that smoking doesn’t.
Morning all :). Some interesting points as always. I share the view that UKIP are currently pretty irrelevant but will doubtless do well again at the next Euro elections. Short of a defection from the Conservative parliamentary party (which I don’t see happening), I can’t quite see how they can move forward.
On the wider issue of Conservative prospects, I think the Max Hastings article makes some useful points. I was much more politically active in the late 80s and early 90s than now and I thought Labour had a real chance of winning the GE up to the removal of Mrs Thatcher. I remember thinking after Eastbourne that we would be able to form a coalition with Labour and break the 100-seat majority.
That of course didn’t happen and for Labour 1992 was a damaging and salutary experience despite the seats and votes gained. That defeat and the untimely death of John Smith gave Blair his opportunity and the Blair Government of May 1997 with its majority of 150+ was a very difficult animal to a minority or very small majority Kinnock Government which would have existed in April 1992. The additional five years of Opposition, while profoundly frustrating for activists, enabled Labour to build up its local Government and activist base, watch the Tories self-destruct and convince major portions of the electorate that Labour was a progressive party of the centre or centre-left.
I wonder if the Conservatives are in a similar position now to Labour in 1990. The expectation of victory is, despite the protestations of some on here, strong albeit realistic in that a minority or small majority is seen as more likely than a landslide.
IF, and it’s a big if of course, the party fails to win power next time, then I suspect many activists will feel a profound sense of frustration and disappointment. I find it difficult to believe that those candidates being selected now believe they are seven years from Government but a minority or small majority Labour Government after the next election is a real possibility.
That said, defeat ultimately worked to Labour’s advantage in 1992 and I wonder if defeat in 2009 might work to Cameron’s advantage in 2013 if he has a further four or five years to reform the party, its policies and allow its image to improve.
Maybe, but will Conservatives wait that long for power ? I wonder whether in the event of defeat in 2009, the Party will indulge in the self-indulgence of internal division. I think to survive Cameron has to do well enough in 2009 to make a majority Government a serious likelihood in 2013-14. That means a minimum of 250 seats to me and I think that is the benchmark. Both Hague and Howard failed to move above 200 and this was the measure of their failure. For Cameron, the bar is that bit higher as expectations are that bit higher as well.
12 / Doctor Barry
Actually Nick Palmer’s posting on here gives me a much better idea of what his views are than I could ever glean from keeping an eye on the local news and his constituency communications. It allows me to feel as though I’m getting value for money from my MP; and makes the decision at the next election much more of an informed (though potentially more difficult) choice.
In previous constituencies I’ve lived in (safe Labour, safe Conservative) my limited awareness of my MP’s activities meant that the choice faced at the election was one of selecting which tribe’s views I subscribed to this week (and I’m a very floating voter). The next election could be a challenge - not only deciding which tribal view I subscribe to, but also deciding whether the ability of the incumbent merits “another go”. Is a good constituency MP worth more than his political persuasion?
UKIP has a strong appeal along the South Coast and in the South West of England. A lot of retired people (normally Tory voters) are very much in its thrall, whether they will vote for it, we have to see.Libertarians are very much like communists, love the theory, hate the practice. Max Hastings has probably ruffled a few feathers with his article in the Guardian. There is an essential truth, that while the majority of people accept, free market capitalism, as being easily the most efficient of the economic models on offer, they expect a government, to protect us from its more extreme effects. The one sure way to lose an election, would be to advocate, the opening up of every aspect of our lives to the free market, health, education etc. mention to a farmer for instance, the first thing the government should do, is to scrap the subsidy system, remove all restrictions on countryside development etc, its amazing how socialist the suddenly become.
Casino outcome ?
Look, unless there’s something we are all totally not expecting, UKIP’s infuence come GE is going to be precisely zero.
Manchester? Holy good god…..Blackpool will be in court..
Manchester - That’s a surprise. Glad it’s not Greenwich.
Don’t think I could have stood the Daily Mail and Express if it had been the Dome and Anschutz (sp?)
colstone: Yes indeed, farmers would be insane to vote UKIP, as the EU is their cash cow. The strong support for UKIP on the South Coast comes from the fishing community, where the EU - or should I say SPANISH FISHERMEN - have been the bogeyman for over a decade.
57 Broxtowe V - “Is a good constituency MP worth more than his political persuasion?”
It’s a bit of a balancing act if you’re not a tribal voter. I have the same issue here in Redbridge. The incumbent, Harry Cohen, has a strong record record of voting against the Iraq warbut that in itself may not be enough. I’ve heard say he’s a good constituency MP but have little evidence to go on. If only he posted on PB.com I’d have a better idea!
Of course, if we had somebody standing for the Punting Party….!
Manchester? How bizzare! Bookies make a killing though I guess…
It does rather blow the whole “Casinos will be good for regeneration” argument out of the water though doesnt it. Manchester has been doing very well thankyou for the last decade, but Blackpool and Tower Hamlets really need regenerating a good deal more than Manchester does. Could it be that regeneration was never the driving issue behind casinos? Hmm, let me see…
57. You assume that Anna Soubry won’t be a good constituency MP. I bet she will. Vote Anna, Nick for the Lords!
40. Thanks Andrea, I expect him to hold on because the hunt supporters have whipped up the vote for him.
As it is against my principles to say anything against a confirmed Conservative candidate at that point I will commit myself to omerta.
Perhaps I could safely say in advance of noon that I expect the LibDems to make a strong run in the seat if Gray is the candidate.
64. Anything to do with shoring up the lab vote in Mancs ? More MPs there than Blackpool..
63. Ptp. So you live either in Snaresbrook or Wanstead?
65 > A bird in the hand…
68 Yup, that’s right Andrea, just off Wanstead High St, which runs between Snaresbrook and Wanstead. You are welcome to stay any time you’re in London.
67: COuld be. Also there could be a strong City Council influence there - given that Labour will lose Glasgow in May, Manchester and Nottingham will remain the only large cities still under Labour control, and Manchester has been a pitched battle with the Lib Dems for many years now. To end up controling none of the large cities in Britain would be a major blow to Labour, and this could be a move to “hold the line” at Manchester, in a kind of Rorke’s Drift way…
67 MBoy (and others)
Of course, there’s always the possibility that the Committee decided the matter on its merits.
No shortage of conspiracy theorists on PB.com this morning!
PtP: Do you think that Manchester is more in need of regeneration than Blackpool or Tower Hamlets? Regeneration was after all the driver for the supercasino plan.
73. Was it, MBoy? Or was it just one factor?
I didn’t see the brief, let alone the evidence. Did you?
UKIP’s problem is that for some disaffected right wing voters, the BNP is a stronger and better organised alternative.
Between them, Yougov consistently gives the BNP and UKIP 6-8% of the vote, which would be 1.7-2.1 million votes, on 2005’s turnout.
Bear in mind this decision still needs rubber stamping. Probably academic but who can tell. Secondly, there may well be review and court action.
Any lucky punter who did back Manchester (probably about 3 of them)may have to wait for their winnings.
Interesting comments on Manchester. I had not realised that Labour had lost so many of the big cities. They used to be their strongholds. Mind you I can’t see them hanging on in an ever affluent Manchester either.
PtP: I heard the endless Govt promotion by Prescott, Jowell and co about how it would mean jobs and investment and regeneration. Perhaps you are right though, perhaps I should have seen through that!
Not sure that having a super casino would do much for Tower Hamlets. After all we have the City on one side, the Olympics planned for the other and Canary Wharf to the South, so would having a super casino nearby really help that much in terms of job creation, particularly, when it would be the other side of the river and a pain to get to from much of the borough.
75. The BNP right wing? Someone should go educate the voter. Look at the BNP anyway, its electoral focus is more of the angry urban bent and UKIP frankly isn’t. I can’t see too many of UKIP’s votes in Bolton or housing estates in London…
Not sure the comparison of both parties fits well. UKIP transferring to BNP and vice versa? You are suggesting there’s an easy interchanging there, not sure there is.
I think one of the factors that might have helped Manchester is that the city council, both the officers and the senior councilors, have a really good reputation. A year or so ago a member of the Electoral Commission told me that it was probably the best run authority in the country. Manchester also did well with the Commonwealth Games.
Given the huge risk for the Government of this development then you want to be assured that there is a good local authority there on the ground.
76 Morning Yokel.
I think that it’s a done deal for punters, regardless of appeals etc and that Betfair will pay out on ‘first past the post’, not the Stewards’ Enquiry.
Saw your post on Detroit City. I will be at Sandown on Saturday. It’s my favorite course, not least because you can get very close to the horses. You can actually walk with them down Rhodedron Walk and that closeness gives you a great opportunity to weigh up their physical condition.
Sandown presents a unique test but I don’t think it will inconvenience DC. He jumps straight and going right-handed shouldn’t be a problem: nor should the stiff finish.
I won’t be backing him; the price will be too short. However I hope, and expect, that he will win in style.
The weather has improved here and we shouldn’t have the bog-like conditions that brought BJK to his knees last weekend.
Can’t wait!
78 Well, MBoy, I lost money on this market so maybe I too should have studied the ‘form’ a bit better! LOL!
80.”I can’t see too many of UKIP’s votes in Bolton”
in 2004 Euro elections, they polled 10.9% in Bolton (BNP was at 6.7%)
80 - Well, lots of people think of them as Right Wing.
Interestingly enough, at the last GE, there were several industrial seats (esp. in South Yorks. and West Midlands) where both UKIP and BNP polled well. Also, in the London Assembly elections, both parties polled well in North East London. Judging by local election results, I reckon there has been quite a shift from UKIP to BNP in such areas.
79 Yes Chris, I too was puzzled by the Tower Hamlets reference. Have they re-routed the river, I wondered?
81 Yes, Mike, that sounds a lot more plausible that some of the speculative theories I’ve read this morning.
Could be Mike, although the CPA audit commission would disagree with you about the ratings
)
Tower Hamlets is top with 3* and improving well; Manchester 3* and improving adequately; Blackpool is 2* and improving well - which I’d say puts Blackpool about the same as Manchester, given its faster rate of improvement.
http://cpa.audit-commission.gov.uk/ScorecardPDF/Scorecard100838.pdf
http://www.manchester.gov.uk/bestvalue/pdf/cpa/Manchester’s%20CPA%20scorecard.pdf
http://cpa.audit-commission.gov.uk/ScorecardPDF/Scorecard108542.pdf
(Beat Andrea to it on that one!
There is perhaps the possibility that Labour didnt want to risk Respect running the Casino site in 3 year time when it is being finished I suppose; but I still think Blackpool was the best spot - as of course did the betting community overwhelmingly. As betters, we are entitled to take the opinion of “the market” seriously!
Politically though ignoring Blackpool carries Electoral risks for Labour particularly considering the fact they no longer hold party conferences there. Blackpool North and neighbouring Lancaster and Fleetwood are both marginal seats. In addition Blackpool South is not so safe that they can completely ignore it. If the Conservative are clever this could be used quite effectively to boost their chances in an important electoral sub-set of the North West.
Doh - yes, the dome isnt in Tower Hamlets, duh!
Greenwich also got 3* and improving well though.
http://cpa.audit-commission.gov.uk/ScorecardPDF/Scorecard103506.pdf
88 - “As betters, we are entitled to take the opinion of “the market” seriously!”
Can’t let that one pass, MBoy!
You cannot make money long-term by following the crowd. Inevitably, the crowd loses long-term.
I suspect anybody taking the time and trouble to study the form properly would have known Manchester was the value bet and would therefore have bet against the crowd. I only wish I had looked at it a little closer.
85.”Also, in the London Assembly elections, both parties polled well in North East London.”
In the Euros Barking and Degenham was a strong area for UKIP. They polled 21% coming second to Labour in the borough
Manchester, doesn’t it have a history of doing/having everything first?
UKIP has totally failed to break out of its single issue laager. The BNP are more likely to pick up the anti immigrant vote and DD is blocking the door on crime; the Tories are not going to go soft on law and order as DC showed with his attack on the inadequate prison building programme. That leaves Europe. Can Angela Merkel come to UKIP’s rescue with plans for reviving the Constitution? If Sarkozy wins there may well be a big move to sell a mini treaty which will be sold by some as Maastrict minus, not requiring a referendum. That might get the european issue back on the agenda. How will GB react; how will DC react? Both pro enlargement are they both going to say that no changes at all are needed to cope with its consequences?
93. No, that’s Liverpool….
45. None of the Above will not be on the ballot paper in Bedford or anywhere else in this May’s pilots that have been announced.
Colin
The other casino licenses granted are…..Large casino licences were granted to Great Yarmouth, Kingston-upon-Hull, Leeds, Middlesbrough, Milton Keynes, Newham, Solihull and Southampton.
Smaller casino licences were granted to Bath and North East Somerset, Dumfries and Galloway, East Lindsey, Luton, Scarborough, Swansea, Torbay and Wolverhampton.
Torbay, c’mon Marcus place that ball, lady luck may smile on you!
I haven´t yet seen any comment from the Catholic leaders condemning the establishment of casinos. This is surely a much bigger and more dangerous issue that the remote possibility of same sex adoption.
I wonder if there is something about it on Benedict´s blog?
84. I always exclude the Euros as people seem to do weird things with their votes!
85. Sean I see where you are coming from and I’m very well aware that they are considered as right wing. I’m still not wholly convinced though that the UKIP & BNP votes are quite so interchangeable as you suggest. My own view is that the substance of the BNP vote gains are not from UKIP and I would dare venture to suggest, aprt from the normal stay at homes who wanted to send a message are picking up votes previously reserved for Labour that UKIP couldnt dream of getting. Yours and Andrea’s stats (the unique madness of the Euro polls notwithstanding!) do show that they can both poll well in the same areas but its proposed the overlap between the two that I would contest. The BNP are different breed these days and they’ll persist to poll reasonably well when UKIP are running at 1% and they have trotted back, largely to the Tories. This idea remains to be proven versus your own.
To put a philosophical note on it, if we take the traditional linear approach of putting parties down as left or right, then we bent that line into a circle, the radicals on both ends suddenly look remarkably close to each other despite people believing they are diametrically opposed.
James Gray doesn’t seem to understand that when in a hole one should stop digging. See his excruciating dismissal of his wife’s cancer as treatment for mainly ‘pre cancerous cells’ and her angry rebuttal( Conservative Home). Whether this latest lapse came too late to influence the result remains to be seen.
100. Yokel, so you simply discount stats you don’t like
For what is worth in the 2004 London mayoral race, 49% of voters who voted BNP candidate as first preference the voted UKIP as second preference (22% voted Norris, 7% voted Red Ken and Simon Hughes).
Among the people who voted the UKIP candidate as first preference, 21.9% voted BNP as second preference (35-7% voted Norris, 14% Hughes and 10.1% Ken)
Re 99, Tressage, the issue is not quite the same as they are not trying to make Catholics open up Casino’s.
All faith groups do have concerns about casino’s. However personaly i have to say with some caveats, that if someone wants to do something I disagree with but is legal that is up to them. (Whether it is gambling, opeing a casino or any other thing)
Removing the ban on advertising gambling however is a concern.
102 - I was recently looking online for stats on the 2nd preference votes in the London mayoral election but couldn’t find them - do you have a link to those figures?
104. Neil, I found them in a paper about the far right in London
http://www.jrrt.org.uk/Far_Right_REPORT.pdf
(page 12)
Hang on, Benedict! I thought the Cardinal´s problem was the distinction between legalilty and morality.
What I think you are saying now is that, if the adoption of a child by a gay couple is legal (as it is), then there is no problem as far as you are concerned…
Re 106, Tressage, The issue is how involved you would like me to be, not whether it is legal or not.
105 - many thanks, I’m sure I saw the full set on something like the LondonElects website once but I can’t seem to find them now. However I can’t quite remember why I wanted to look them up anyway (the old memory is getting worse) so I’m not too pushed about finding them now!
Two factors.
Kilroy-Silk had the biggest effect EVER in boosting UKIP.
The prospect of an EU Constitution and surrounding negative publicity boosted UKIP.
UKIP support has declined since those factors were removed.
Yes it did well in the Euro elections, but that had faded by the General Election as these factors were in the past.
I would hope and expect that the Greens overtake UKIP in the popular vote next General Election.
100 and 102.
I think that the rural/South Coast UKIP voter is quite different from the BNP voter. But I think in the cities, they’ll appeal to people with similar views - albeit, I think urban UKIP voters are more likely to be older and middle class than BNP voters.
Btw, I have a bet for this afternoon’s racing at Folkestone, if anybody is interested. It’s similar to one I gave recently - a split stake win bet - Adecco and Ishka Baha in the 3.50. Both are available at 4-1 (so it’s like backing a 3-1 shot).
There’s value in both and I suggest small to middling stakes.
105 - This may be amongst the dumbest questions posed here…but the table cited by Andrea also purports to show the second preferences of Cons, Lab and lib Dems. Surely, the 2nd preferences of the first two would not be counted as both were in the final ballot…so how were these figures compiled?
James Gray has won reselection
112 - there was electronic counting so they would have scanned / counted each ballot-sheet (including second preferences) regardless of who the first preference candidate was. (As opposed to manual counting where they would only have gone into the second preferences of the eliminated candidates.)
110 In my limited experience of the BNP in the SE, esp. fighting a ward against them in Horsham, there is considerable cross-over between UKIP and BNP voters.
The best ever result for the BNP corresponded to the worst ever for UKIP.
They are both supported by typically angry white people. It just depends on who else they blame for their woes; Europeans or Immigrents (or both
).
114 - Thanks. You learn something new every day…
113 Pity the man is a fool. The seat will be LibDem next time round.
113 - excellent news! (for the Lib Dems that is
)
117. The vote tally wasn’t released though (but maybe it’ll be leaked soon)http://www.gazetteandherald.co.uk/news/headlines/display.var.1156754.0.mp_gray_wins_ballot_over_his_future.php
118 Indeed it is excellent news for them.
113.Unbelievable!
118. I’d be amazed if CCO didn’t overrule the local idiots.
No the only way that Ukip would be of any effect is a GE timed to coincide with the euro elections. But dependant on the political wind of those elections this could actually be benificial for the tories- Split ticket voting - UKIP for euro elections - Tory for GE. I don’t personally believe that UKIP can add anything to what the Conservatives are able or willing to do at national govt level and i don’t forsee the circumstances in which UKIP opinions become “mainstream”.
Whilst i may have sympathy with some of the policies of UKIP, I would not bother wasting my vote as events and politics currently are (Although Never say Never!!!). In a modern global economy going it alone is not an option - Look at the Scots nationalists they want independece from UK but want to be part of Europe. No, the UKIP type of mentality is Pre-churchills 3 rings of inflience - It would not surprise me if UKIP wanted to resurrect the Empire!!!!
The americans are only interested in their national interest not the UK’s - I would say i was pro-american and also pro-european only when it was in the UK’s interest!!!
Just out of interest is UKIP a unionist party? We know they want out of Europe but do they want England to be self governed and detach itself from Scotland, Wales & N.I?
I think really UKIP is just a protest vehicle as it is something to wield against the major parties. I don’t think people vote for other than to vote against something. As the tories found before not much milage in that (1997, 2001 & 2005!!!).
What do you expect! Moonraker country, ‘They’ll be dancing with Joy at Libdem HQ’
The impression that will be given to the local electorate is that the constituency is a wholly owned subsidiary of the local hunt! Are there any boundary changes, Andrea? If not it must be highly vulnerable to the LDs in a County, and seat, where they have strong roots. I don’t think CCO can do a thing unless there were procedural irregularities.
125.”Are there any boundary changes, Andrea? ”
yes, Blue Moon. I think boundary changes are positive for the tories (they should start something like 14% ahead)
I don’t think 14% will be enough but time will tell. He must hope that memories dull over time but the Association is grievously split and I think a lot of members will refuse to work for him; there could even be some defections to the LDs.
RE- James Grey, this is when politicians should be made to walk round with a sticker on their head saying Idiot!!! Everybody else other than themselves know that it is the end but they are either that arrogant or detached that they don’t relise. Look at Blair he still does not relise that he should have gone months ago - seems to be something that politicians are suseptibal too.
I will say one thing for Oaten, at least he had a reality check and relised that his behaviour was unpalatable with the election and announced that he was not seeking re-election.
I would recomend that James Grey did the same - yes he won renomination but decided to draw a line under a sorry state of affairs. Better to face humilation on your own terms rather than someone elses (the electorate!!!)
102. Yes, yes I do.
Strong BNP to UKIP but not so much UKIP to BNP….
125: yes, “your Tory Party: a Countryside Alliance front” seems a reasonable line for their local opponents.
Meanwhile, I see David Cameron has endorsed the government’s position on requiring adoption agencies to consider gay couples, though he’s given a free vote to colleagues like David Davis who disagree. I’ve been surveying my own email list, and getting a goodly numbers of responses now - running about 2-1 in favour, though quite a lot of them say my briefing on the details changed their minds, and I think the starting position was pretty much the even split from that poll the other day.
[Broxtowevoter - thanks for the note - if you want to join my email list for more detailed updates than I post here, do get in touch at NickMP1@aol.com. Commentator - many thanks! If you’d like to encourage Anna Soubry to post here then we can *both* give hostages to fortune…]
127. BlueMoon. I think it can be safe to assume that the tories will perform worse than average in that seat.
129 I do much the same, Yokel.
I keep telling myself Exotic Dancer is not a very good horse…
Nick Palmer MP,
Have any of your constituents been killed or injured in Iraq or Afghanistan?
Have any Police officers received any serious injury whilst serving the community in your parliamentary constituency?
99 Tressage I think you’re confusing the Catholic church with Methodism. I can’t ever remember the Catholic church being against gambling.
I love how James Gray thinks there was opposition to him just because he’s divorcing:
“I quite respect the views of those, including some of those who have voted against me on the executive council, who believe that an MP’s divorce makes it hard to offer him an automatic re-adoption.”
re Gray. I presume the refusal to publish the figures means it was close.
134
only if its done by gays!
111. NB two 4-1 shots make a 6-4 shot. Thanks for the tip though
Perhaps a good lesson from the Gray case that we when people get excited here about Labour meltdowns we should also not underestimate the Tories ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Whatever Cameron is doing at the top, he is still pretty much a one man band running the party that delivered the triumphs of 97,01 and 05.
“I can’t ever remember the Catholic church being against gambling.”
No, I can´t either, Galloglass (134). It seems a strange order of priorities to me.
138 LOL Aaron!
Thanks for the correction. I was thinking of the retur