Could this man hurt Dave’s green credentials?
February 24th, 2007
Will the climate change sceptic win the Peers’ Tory by election?
There’s a by election going on at the moment for a place in parliament which has hardly been covered in the media but which, potentially, could cause a problem for David Cameron.
There are 43 candidates fighting it out to win the support from an electorate of just 47 different people and the result is due the week after next. At stake is one of the hereditary Tory places in the House of Lords which was made vacant by the death in December of the Tory peer Lord Mowbray.
And for David Cameron there could be a problem - for one of the leading candidates is Viscount (Christopher) Monckton - the former aide to Margaret Thatcher who has become the leading world voice against climate change.
Monckton’s features in the Sunday Telegraph last November in which he “disputes the ‘facts’ of this impending apocalypse” and accuses the UN and its scientists of distorting the truth have become the main tracts for those who doubt whether global warming is in fact taking place.
And what could be more embarrassing for the young Tory leader if the next party member to be elected to parliament is playing such a role and has such views? For Cameron has sought to make so much of the green agenda to differentiate his Tory party from how they used to be perceived.
Although he is up against a huge number of opponents it is Monckton who has been making the running in what limited coverage there has been in the media. There’s a big piece about him today in the Guardian which notes that he worked for Margaret Thatcher “during her most abrasive ruling period” and describes the Blair government as “dictatorship … inflicted on us by stealth“.
The “electorate” are existing Tory peers in the Lords and not all of them, one would guess, are completely comfortable with Cameron. What better way for them to express their discontent than by supporting the Monckton bid?
The 55 year old peer has also been in the news over a game he invented. In 1999, he created the eternity puzzle (bottom picture) which offered a £1m prize to the first to crack it. It was won after 18 months. A second puzzle, Eternity II, is to be launched in July 2007, with a prize of $2 million.
Alas - there is not a betting market yet on the election. If there was then Monckton might be worth a punt.
Mike Smithson
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That’s more like it! He’s what I think of as a real Tory! Those of us who remember the party all the way back to Thatcher standing on the steps of No 10 quoting-without irony- St Francis of Assisis saying “where there is discord let us bring harmony” will be comforted to see at last a Tory wearing Tory clothing.
I think most non Conservatives believe there are lot’s of ‘Monktons’ hiding in the wooden horse that is the ‘real’ Tory Party waiting for Cameron to get them in before discarding their disguise. It’ll be good to see one in full regalia before we allow ourselves to get too lulled by pretty green trees!
What makes you think that the hereditaries aren’t happy with Cameron’s leadership?
Blimey, slow news day eh?
Mike, you’re forgetting that the electorate take little, if any, notice of politics in the Lords. I cannot possibly see how he could cause real trouble for Cameron. If anything, a peer (still seen as out-of-date, old fuddy-duddies) lambasting Cameron over an important topic like global warming could just help his image that he is not a traditional, “nasty” Tory.
Are you sure you’re not just blogging this for the sake of it? I wouldn’t want to think you were trying to create a story where there was none.
A quick unlurk from me.
Of course the Labour party is just a secret vehicle for Militant Tendency, ready and waiting as they are to remove their false moustaches, don their Che Guevara T shirts and revel in the workers’ paradise that will shortly materialise.
Long may Roger and all others in the Labour party keep on believing that the Tories haven’t changed and pose no threat.
As for Monckton he’s is a preening, self publicising fruit cake with a very dodgy grip on science. I was briefly in the City in the late 80s and worked as a pharmaceuticals analyst (no tittering please).
I vividly remember attended a lecture by Monckton who confidently predicted that AIDS was going to destroy the human race, that we should all be AIDS tested every month and should all carry compulsory AIDS clearance cards that we would have to produce before we hopped into bed with anyone. All those diagnosed with AIDS would be sent to permanent quarantine centres.
Lovely man and not at all batty.
1 a bit rich considering the Labour Party’s two declared candidates for the leadership are a 9/11 conspiracy theorist and a friend of the IRA - do we take it they reveal the face of the true Labour Party?
What sample size would you need for a reasonably accurate opinion poll where the members of the electorate are almost outnumbered by the candidates and the voting system is AV!?
Being a but more serious, firstly, how likely is it that he’ll win? Transferable vote systems don’t help more extreme candidates as they pick up fewer preference transfers.
Secondly, one of the good things about the House of Lords is that it has a wider range of views than the Commons because the selection process isn’t as rigorous, which in a revising chamber is a useful thing. I want the orthodoxy to be questioned by a few - that helps. The climate change debate is rather like the evolution debate. There’ll always be some who dispute the theory of evolution (and there are some glaring gaps in it), but it’s general validity is strengthed each time an attack is successfully fought off on the basis of evidence.
Finally, whether he’s elected or not, I doubt many will notice. The election will receive virtually no coverage and once he’s in the house, few will notice how he got there.
Looks a rogue, doesn’t he? Wouldn’t trust him an inch myself.
#1 - Roger, calm down. Thatcher was as serious as Blair has ever been about tackling Global Warming. Monbiot did a fun analysis in 2005 when he showed how similar Blairs speeches on global warming were to Thatchers. She was, at least on this point, prepared to base her judgement on evidence rather than ideology.
7 - DH. My only problem with that is that it feels like the last 10 years have been spent winning such a debate when what was needed was a debate on what we were going to do about it and then to get on with doing it. The consequences of delaying action are likely to be costly and dangerous. And yet, serious action continues to be deferred.
9. You’re right re Thatcher, but then unlike Blair the lawyer, Thatcher was a scientist by training. Scientists tend to draw conclusions from evidence; lawyers (much more closely aligned to politics), have a more circular relationship between the case and the evidence.
You’re right on climate change about moving on and I’d hate to see someone like Monckton stopping progress - but I don’t think that would happen. He’d still only be one of very few voices, licenced sceptics if you like, who are in a position to challenge the policy. Consensus can be dangerous if it leads to ill-thought through policy, and on this one there’s only one shot and doing the wrong thing would be little better than doing nothing.
Besides, we’re not going to convince everyone and we can’t wait until we do. Therefore, there’ll be people who’ll believe they’re being ignored if the main party leaderships are in agreement - which on this they more or less are, and rightly so. Those people need representatives in the legislature like Monckton (not many - one or two’s enough) to show that this is still a democracy; their views are represented, but the majority will should prevail.
If I was David Miliband or Chris Huhne I would seek to use the Monckton bid as a means of embarrassing Cameron. So it’s only a House of Lords place and nobody really notices - but that shouldn’t stop a smart attack dog going for the Tories on this. Issues can be made.
I would not be surprised if Blair tries to embarrass Cameron on this one at PMQs.
6 - Ted, nice riposte.
To resume last night’s interesting debate with David Herdson (who I have a lot of time for - his comments are always thoughtful) and others about legitimate tactics: my working assumption is that the Calderdale Tories didn’t really have adequate evidence to think that they were the main alternative to the BNP, since it was so unlikely in that ward. If they were genuinely convinced, that would completely absolve them of criticism, and nobody can really know their inner thoughts. So let’s move on from Calderdale, as the interesting discussion is on the general point.
Suppose you are a major party candidate and you privately think your major party rival X has a better chance of beating the strong BNP challenge. Are you justified in putting out a leaflet saying no, it’s you that has the better chance?
At one level, the answer is “no, because lying is wrong”, but I’ve seen every major party do this quite routinely in three-cornered contests. I don’t really approve of it, but it’s too familiar to get excited about. The question is whether the BNP challenge makes it a special case.
I think it does. The point is that by making the claim in this context one is not just saying “we can win here” when maybe it’s not true, but essentially, “Normal party politics should be suspended here, because there is a moral imperative to stop an unscrupulous racist getting in, and the way to do that is to vote for me.” This appeal to higher moral ground is simply wrong if one privately suspects that the actual impact will be to increase the likelihood of the BNP getting in.
There are plenty of ways to fight an active campaign without this. Tories who say they are the real opposition to Labour and the BNP are a distraction are telling the truth, likely to win votes with it, and weakening the BNP all at the same time.
11 - “embarrass” how, exactly? Even going along with all the posts dubious suppositions (that he’s a “leading candidate”, that the hereditaries are all opposed to Cameron’s leadership, that they will determine their voting on what will best annoy the leadership rather than who would do the best job in the House of Lords) the fact that there are people within the Tory Party who deny climate change hardly amounts to anything. I’m sure you wouldn’t have to dig too far to find sceptics in the Labour Party, even if they try to keep quiet about it.
The biggest contribution that could be made by the UK to reducing global warming was made by Lady Thatcher when she turned off the life support system to a moribund coal industry. Coal is a dirty energy source; since the reunification of Germany the eastern German coal generated pollution has dropped, pity China and India are outside UK or European influence.
O/T but good evidence that the Government is no longer capable of thinking straight:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/moneybox/6391099.stm
If you scroll down to the bottom you’ll see there’s a straightforward, inexpensive fix for the problem. So why have they shot themselves in the foot?
I was really making the broader point that old Conservatve obsessions like low taxes crime immigration and kicking Europe are being camourflaged by feel good policies such as the environment.
Hague’s “Eight days to save the pound” doesn’t have quite the philanthropic value of ‘eight days to save the planet’! And wasn’t it IDS who with twenty other crazed right-wing fanatics who tried to get Redwood to replace the more moderate Major? And Howard…..enough said!
All three voted in by Tory Party members within the last ten years. So either these members with an average age of over sixty have suddenly seen the light or alternatively they see the new direction as a ruse to get them elected after which it will be business as usual.
This is my type of by-election !!
Forty three old Tory buffers determindly scrabbling around for the right to snore away on the red benches !!
Hopefully they’ll be a suitable Scottish peer for Andrea and I to champion, so as to redress the awful imbalance of the quite scandalous dirth of Scots in positions of influence in the nations affairs !!
Failing that I shall fall back on my default position, founded with John O, that Tories with waistlines of 50 inches plus should be preserved for the nations heritage. The clarion call will go out
“Save The Tory Whales”
Not to be confused with another Conservative election campaign :
“Save the Tories in Wales”
“dictatorship … inflicted on us by stealth“.
Such an opinion surely chimes very nicely with the views of the Cameron Tories’ future coalition partners - the Lib Dems. Remarks like that have been two a penny on this site from Lib Dem posters over the last couple of years.
The re-branding of the Tory party, goes on. David Cameron, not known for being particularly religious, has now found ‘it’, (if it worked for TB it’ll work for me)attending church, faith schools for kids etc. Bit like Brown’s support of the English football team.
I should remind hatfield girl, by turning off our ‘moribund coal industry’ and using North Sea gas for electricity generation instead, we have depleted our reserves of gas and placed our energy supply in the hands of very dubious people. If we had subsidised our coal industry in the way we subsidy agriculture, we would have ‘clean coal power stations’ by now. The destruction of our coal industry is something we will one day pay a very heavy price for. I do not blame Mrs T for it entirely, Arthur Scargill’s obduracy also bears much of the responsibilty.
19 - “attending church, faith schools for kids” - these two tend to be related. Nothing to do with politics
17.”Hopefully they’ll be a suitable Scottish peer for Andrea and I to champion”
Is Earl Cathcart Scottish? He was second in last year’s byelection and he’s standing again
12. Thanks, Nick. I’ve replied on the other thread.
Hope you all have a nice day - I’m off now. Predictions: Ireland, France, Italy.
Man made global warming is a total nonsense. We are 500 years overdue a new ice age based on the average time of a non-glacial period; which is always preceeded by a spike in global temperatures. When that hits we’ll need all the carbon in the air we can get.
20
If you really are religious, even a cynical atheist (Dawkinsite)like myself, will give you grudging respect.When someone (certainly a politician) suddenly developes a sudden taste for religion, I’m suspicious, why?
21 Andrea. Yes, he’s also head Chief of the Clan Cathcart !!
Not too sure if he qualifies on the “whale index” ???
BTW do you have the list of candidates ? … I’ve tried the HoL site and it refuses me access !!
12 The problem with making the fight an anti BNP one is it builds that party up and, I would suggest, stregthens their votes by making them the protest vote. I’d prefer to see the main parties addressing the issues that make the discontented look to the BNP.
Also why not adopt the Spode approach - instead of making them a dire threat make them a joke. Just as the Tory right gets too worked up about UKIP, many on the left give the BNP the oxygen of publicity by taking the BNP too seriously. They have a hateful philosophy but they are cartoon villains, expose their stupidity, mock their symbols but at same time look at why people are voting for them, see the real concerns and find ways of addressing those.
25. Jack http://www.parliament.uk/documents/upload/HoLNotice070207.pdf
27 Andrea. Thanks for that Andrea, but I’m still getting a 403 error.
Would you kindly cut and paste the list ?? Ta very much.
19. Yes. Technological advance will produce clean energy production from coal; and investment to do this is already arriving. It’s a very different industry from that of nearly quarter of a century ago. In the meantime, lots of pollution hasn’t happened and time has not run out for substitution of natural gas resources.
Cameron walks on water at the moment, so this would enhance his percieved change.
More intresting would be to see how he reacts too difficult choices.
Like, for example Sky the Murdoch empire threatning the governments digital switch over by stating it will take all their 3 channels off free to air including sky news, and making everyone who would like this terrestial service, buy or get given a different set top box to recieve this service, in essence trying to make it a pay platform in the long run.Taking his channels of this platform is fair enough,but the confusion caused will be incredible for many in society.
Only Ofcom can stop it.
This combined with doubling the carriage fees to Virgin Media (formerly NTL cable), who have stated they wont be carrying sky news from 010307, then previously buying a part of ITV to stop Virgin Media becoming a major competitor is worrying for the future of the British media, including the BBC.
The murdoch empire is seeing that with broadband people dont need a satallite dish in the future, but to remain dominant they need to stop any possible major competion.
I don`t expect this government to stop this and I don`t think Brown has the balls to stand up to Rupe.
However Cameron could and it might be popular as well, but I won`t be betting on it.He will just carry on smiling nicely, as thats all he has to do at the moment.
No wonder people don`t trust politicians.
28. Jack. LIST OF CANDIDATES
L. Abinger; V. Addison; E. Alexander of Tunis; L. Annaly; L. Ashbourne; L. Biddulph; L. Birdwood; L. Cadman; E. Cathcart;
L. Chesham; L. Darling; L. De Ramsey; L. Gainford; V. Gormanston (L. Gormanston); L. Harlech; V. Hill; V. Hood; E. Iveagh; L. Killearn; E. Kinnoull (L. Hay); L. Margadale; V. Massereene and Ferrard (L. Oriel); V. Monckton of Brenchley; L. Morris; L. Newall;
L. Ogmore; L. Oranmore and Browne (L. Mereworth); L. Pender; L. Polwarth; L. Poole; L. Rathcavan; L. Rowallan; L. Seaford; E. Stockton; L. Sudeley; L. Swansea; E. Swinton; L. Terrington;
V. Torrington; L. Vivian; V. Weir; E. Woolton; V. Younger of Leckie;
As members of the House of Commons have to be more and more ‘vanilla’ the individualists in the Lords become ever more valuable in ensuring all strands of opinion are aired.
There is a growing group of perfectly respectable scientists who are uncomfortable with the religious tinge that ‘climate change’ has developed. There are no certainties and there certainly are no ‘proofs’ in the normal scientific sense and the farrago of the ‘ozone layer’ is a warning.
While very few think that our carbon emissions do not need curbing I do read some scientists who are unsure whether the current changes are all, or even mostly, the result of human activity, and many others that do not accept the most apocalyptic scenarios.
If we are to have a sensible debate those views need airing. There is a hint in this article that seems to be that if you are not one of the environmental Godly then you have no right to express your views. And if you do you are a loon.
In the meantime, lots of pollution hasn’t happened and time has not run out for substitution of natural gas resources.
Well hatfield girl, I worked for British Gas,(I got out when the Tories destroyed it) for thirty years, you obviously know something I don’t. The Tories destruction of the world’s finest gas industry and electricity industry, and its replacement with the shambolic mess we have today. is something I do lay at their door. One of my gripes against the present government, is it has not done anything to improve our energy transmission system and has even made the situation worse. If we in this country, do not wake up,as to how precarious our energy supply situation is becoming, we will sleep walk to disaster.
Andrea. Cathcart has sadly been deselected and has been replaced by Ryanair. Happily for traditioalists we still have representation by (Baron) Mildmay of Flete.
31 All household names then, Andrea?
31 Andrea. I’ve had a reply spammed !!
BTW Cathcart is not a whale …. more a penguin !!
Italian Update (if anyone care)
so President Napolitiano is set to announce today what will happen (Napolitano and Prodi are having a meeting at the moment).
The most likest solution seems to send Prodi’s government back to the Houses to ask for a new vote of confidence.
Meanwhile CL managed to find a new supporter at the Senate. Follini (former UDC leader. He already left UDC last year) has said he’ll vote for the confidence.
Meanwhile what happened to the 2 Commies rebels…Senator Rossi….when the result was announced, he was still in his seat. Apparently the nicest thing he was told was “bastard”. Russo Spena (president of Rifondazione Comunista Senate group) apparently threw at him all his papers….just to miss him and hit a Green lady.
Then Senator Rossi was going home by train…but the fate made him meet, on the train, a PdCI (Italian Communists Party…his old party) regional officer. Seeing Rossi, the regional officer told his friends to go somewhere else as he doesn’t want to sit with Rossi. So Rossi tells him to stay there and not be a prat….so the regional officer apparently hit him in the face!
Senator Turigliano has been expelled by Rifondazione. He wants to resign as MP…but resignations should be approved by Parliament and I suppose the CR will vote to keep him
24 - I thought i made that clear. To get his child into a faith school.
Mike, interesting article but we already have Lord lawson who is also a climate change sceptic about.
That said I don’t understand these arch Thatcherite climate change sceptics, as Magge was a true believer in climate change!
30 - I don’t see that there’s any obligation for Sky to provide channels on free-to-air. Why should Ofcom stop it?
I’ve just read the discussion on the BMP question and I really agree with both Ted and Stephen Whalley on the other thread. If all the parties have to get together to defeat the BMP then it gives them more credibility than their vote deserves.
If they get the odd candidate in because all the non BNP candidates split the vote so be it. It’s not that significant. They’ll probably end up in jail for something or other before too long and that’ll be more effective than any gerrymandering of the vote.
I don’t agree with Ted that the underlying problems can be looked at because in my opinion most of it is just old fashioned prejudice which probably takes a generation to get rid of. Read some of the posts on this site.
24
If that is the case, that’s disgraceful!
Still ‘If Paris is worth a mass…..’
39. It’s nothing to do with political ideology; the prevailing media doctrine does not give a balanced view on climate change; the evidence is absolutely not definate as to whether man is responsible; never mind the consequences of changing our actions to fit the new eco religion.
32 - What is the farrago of the ‘Ozone layer’?
41. The worst thing about this BNP debate is that the other parties are now using the BNP’s presence at byelections as an excuse to play petty party politics - ‘you shouldn’t have put up a candidate for fear of letting the BNP in’…’why didn’t you put up a candidate against the fascists?’…’why did you claim it was a two-horse race’ etc. etc. This pathetic approach is likely to encourage and strengthen the BNP.
24. Coldstone - replying to your own posts really is the end of the line old boy.
BBC website has a piece about the mood at Welsh Labour Conferece.
Delegates seem to think that losing just a couple of seats would be a good result, whilst getting less than 25 seats would be a disaster.
Cardiff North and Clwyd West are listed as seats where the tories are confident (well, no surprise).
Labour seem to think they can pick up a couple of new seats: Wrexham, Arfon or on the Mid and West Wales regional list.
Delegates think that Llanelli is still too close to call…surely if Llanelli is too close to call, Labour is not doing that bad (or Plaid is not going too well)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/wales/6391389.stm
39
That said I don’t understand these arch Thatcherite climate change sceptics, as Magge was a true believer in climate change!
Evidence for this Benedict!
That photograph of Maggie bestride the M25 on the day it was opened, She ran down the railways, hated trains, and thought of people who used public transport as failures. Even her son married the daughter of a second hand car dealer. The only thing Mrs T though should be green, was the complexion of your next door neighbour when you pulled up in your brand new gas guzzler.
ooops sorry!
31 Andrea. Scottish whales distinct by their absence from that list !!
I’ll review the candidates and downgrade our expectations to a Scottish dolphin !!
Laters.
17. “Save the Tories in Wales.” Well they seem to be doing pretty well at the moment.
33. You have the knowledge and experience to make your assessment of the precariousness of energy supply in the UK very disturbing. Responsibility for the current situation lies with governments of right and left. It’s too important to leave to be solely market-determined, so where is the debate on secure,clean power supply, and the even more important debate on the extent and mode of directing investment into crucial nationwide infrastructures? Who gets elected as a representative of the hereditary peers is important and interesting at one level, but your remarks show up the irrelevance of the way green issues are being debated by both the government and the opposition.
52
Your reply hatfield girl has humbled me!
41 -its an easy answer to say “old fashioned prejudice”, yes there is prejudice but its new fashioned driven by change: “look at all the money the council is spending on those Asians”,”them new immigrants get first choice of council houses”.”why do we celebrate Hindu/Muslim festivals but then Christmas is banned” or in the Sun this morning the mother of the Cameron gun hoodie “People are coming here from Poland doing jobs that lads like Ryan should do.”(as if a criminal, badly educated boy had much desire to work anyway)
It’s about fear of loss of identity, fear of the stranger, breakup of local communities (ex mining, ex cotton, ex steel, ex East End as the country changes), joblessness among under-educated white kids, house prices and lack of housing. We might have differing solutions for the problems but I think the Tories, Labour & Lib Dems need to recognise the problems.
Re 15, Innocent, nuts isn’t it?
48 - Isn’t the Thatcher and “failures use public transport” thing a bit of an urban myth?
RE 48, Coldstone, Eveidence? Her speeches on the subject, and the fuel escalator. Add to that the fact taht from 1990 to abot 1999 CO2 emmeisons went down.
56. Loelia Ponsonby, one of the wives of 2nd Duke of Westminster, is quoted as saying “Anybody seen in a bus over the age of 30 has been a failure in life” Ken Livingstone recently used the so called Thatcher quote attacking Tory transport policy so it’s a myth thats hard to put down (Labour likes to think she would have said it)
40,
Alex I said Sky taking its 3 channels including Sky News of digitial terrestial (freeview) was fair enough.
However they are proposing to use their bandwith on this platform for a pay service, which means you would need a seperate set top box, and all current idtv`s would not be compatable.
This would confuse many in society when switch over takes place and the anologue signal is taken off.
When they leave freeview their channels should be given to other free to air providers.
This is why ofcom need to step in.
The more worrying thing is how they are trying to stifle competition against virgin media.
I do believe competition is needed in future in the subscription pay tv service.
47. They are delusional if they think they can save Llanelli. It is gone. It would be truly amazing if they pulled that out of the fire. Arfon no chance. Wrexham just maybe if Marek and the Lib Dems split the anti Labour vote almost evenly. Mid Wales list seats. Quite likely as they will suffer heavily in the constituencies. To see the scale of their problems re-paste a post from earlier.
64 - They have long ago stopped asking for help in Llanelli & Aberconwy as these two seats have gone. They are still trying in Preseli & CWSP but their hearts are not in it.
In the North they are frantically trying to defend Delyn (probably lost this one) and are now panicking about Vale of Clwyd & Clwyd South - here the voters seem to be moving towards Plaid not the Conservatives, but I think that the anti-Labour vote will stay split and they might just hang on here.
A bit more confusing in the South - Plaid are piling up the votes in the Valleys, but probably not high enough to win. Voters remember the Conservatives, and do not want to vote for them, while the LDs are very anonymous. Apathy might be the biggest winner in the South.
by Penddu February 18th, 2007 at 4:04 am
47 Further to that. I would now regard 26 seats as a “good” result for them. The public mood to Labour is really ugly. To top it off there has been a massive press campaign on fire engines taking people to Hospital because ambulances cannot etc.
47 - The BBC article says of Aberconwy “Changes to the Conwy constituency’s boundaries mean that sitting Labour AM Denise Idris Jones is facing a strong challenge from Plaid Cymru for the new seat.”
Mmhhh I thought this was a Plaid/Conservative contest now as Anthony Wells puts it “The removal of Labour voting Bangor under the new boundaries once again makes the seat a prime target for the Tories.”
I wonder if this is a case of the BBC correspondent being ill informed or a genuine case of nobody having any idea what will happen here post the boundary changes?
Alex in the mid 90’s I visited the Antarctic Centre in New Zealand. They were doing lots of fine research including measuring the hole in the ozone layer. They were adamant that this was the result of human activity and dire predictions were being made about the hole growing and us all dying of skin cancer as a result of our use of CFCs and such like.
I asked a fairly obvious question. ‘ How do you know that this hole has not been there all the time?’ Well I was looked at as a freak. A member of the ungodly, an unbeliever. In the end the scientist I was talking to did admit there was no record of a hole NOT being there. But since it was noticed it had grown. And anyway, it must be new, it was obvious.
A decade later it is accepted that the hole may well have been there all the time and that the original prognosis was off target as the hole may be a key element in weather systems that benefit us.
Of course human activity may well have made the hole bigger (it is now shrinking I believe) and that had to be dealt with, but the religiosity of the time about this hole was very similar to that about carbon, although, admittedly, much smaller in scale.
Throughout western history we have had ’science’ turn into unthinking religion, I just thought we had got over that slide into witch burning. But perhaps not.
” I think most non Conservatives believe there are lot’s of ‘Monktons’ hiding in the wooden horse that is the ‘real’ Tory Party waiting for Cameron to get them in before discarding their disguise. It’ll be good to see one in full regalia before we allow ourselves to get too lulled by pretty green trees! ”
… and a fast track to another Labour victory?
62 - I’m sure third placed tories are really neck and neck with the second placed party last time, and that Labour have no chance of winning.
Until polling day of course, when it all goes pear shaped.
61
What is your forecast of the seat split?
I thought free NHS prescriptions which start in April would help Labour or is this too little too late?
These Lords by-elections really are a joke. Instead of consigning the hereditaries to the dustbin of history we have a bizarre recycling scheme whereby a handful of these feudal relics vote to readmit one of their own. This may be appropriate for a private gentleman’s club, but not for the legislature of a suposedly democratic country.
62. Ill informed BBC reporter. Bangor going means Lanour will be a very and I mean very low third in the seat.
65. Presumably you haven’t looked at the boundary changes have you. On what grounds other than fantasy do you believe Labour will hold. Plaid may well win it, but Labour well if that’s what you really think rush down to the bookies now I assure you, you’ll get great odds.
66. All tied up with how list seats split. See 60 though, Plaid and the Tories will do very well constituency wise. Have little intelligence on the Lib Dems, though frome their point of view surely they really must look to get something off Labour in a year like this.
Re prescriptions, all the press coverage is on the ambulance service. Fire engines and police cars taking people to Hospital because the ambulances never turn up on time etc.
61/65 I find the Assembly elections facinating - although very difficult to get a feeling for not living in Wales. You say that the “The public mood to Labour is really ugly”.
I’d be interested to know to what extent a distinctly Welsh media exists in Wales? I mean do many people read the Western Mail?
65. Pimpernel, reading some Welsh elections comments here, you can think that Labour is aheading towards getting 0 seats overall
Media disticntly different not really no. Hence the relative strength of the Tory party in Wales vis a vis Scotland. Western Mail not sure circulation, but well outsold by London papers of all descriptions.
71. All is relative, but when you consider the abslute domination of Wales from top to bottom by Labour for decades it is fair to say their situation is currently serious. They still have a strong core and no one should exaggerate things, but I don’t think you can really downplay them either.
Still plenty of 1.26 available for GB on Betfair. The graph of his price movement looks ominous to me.
All those who disagree wade in.
It is also possible that the people aren’t stupid fascists, they just want to vote BNP because, on some issues, the BNP makes more sense than any of the other parties. If this is the clear wish of the electorate - for BNP policies - then to maneuver against this is arguably anti-democratic. If all the other parties ganged up on, say, Labour, because of Iraq, I think Labour would get quite upset.
*lights blue touchpaper then swiftly retires to his Chiang Rai hotel*
74 I disagree, StJohn, but my portfolio is stuffed to the gunnals with bets taken out at these inflated prices. However, if they persist another week, I shall see the bank about a mortgage so that I can invest some more. It’s free money as far as I’m concerned.
75 - interesting. could you enlighten us as to which issues, the BNP makes more sense than any of the other parties?
As I have little information coming from them, I am genuinely interested in what positive policies they propose
54 and 75 - the BNP attracts considerable support among young people. One recent poll of 16-19 years olds suggested 6% would vote BNP if they had the opportunity (out of 78% who expressed any party preference).
Mark Steyn’s article, a couple of years back, “The Lunatic Mainstream” helps explain why some people find parties like the BNP more plausible than the big three.
If the BNP win the occasional council seat on 30% because the rest of the vote is split evenly between the big three, it’s hardly the end of the World.
77. Tsk. You don’t get me that easily! I didn’t say I supported any of the BNP’s policies, sensible or otherwise. I just said it is possible for a voter, a non-Fascist, to feel that the BNP is more honest than the other parties on certain issues.
Take multiculturalism. What if you genuinely believe that the idea of multiculturalism is a failure, especially with regard to Muslims in non Muslim countries. This is a very arguable position, as Muslims across the world, wherever they are, seem often to be hostile to non-Muslim host communities and very often violently secessionist. We in the UK have had homegrown Muslim suicide bombers. Right now I am in Thailand where 2000 people have died, in three years, at the hands of Muslim insurgents.
And so on, and so forth - across the world.
Now an ordinary person looking at this pattern might say, Here we have a serious problem. This problem will only get worse if we allow yet more Muslim immigration into the UK. Ergo we must stop Muslim immigration.
This seems, to me, to be a valid and non-Fascist point of view, indeed it may be common sensical. But the only party I can see espousing it is the BNP, as the others have their own reasons for rejecting the policy (which may also be valid).
So, there, that’s one reason you could support the BNP without being a Nazi. And therefore it is a good question whether the other parties are behaving democratically if they unite to suppress such views.
I repeat this is not necessarily my position. Just arguing the case!
O/T Saturday Big Race Tips
It’s been a while since I put up one of these but today I have received strong advice concerning Nil Desperandum in the Tote Eider Chase at Newcastle, 8/1 with a number of bookies. It’s good each way value.
Lucifer Bleu should win the big race at Kempton but at 7/4 it’s too short for greedy sods like me. Better value might be Simon each way at 13/2. It should at least get through the testing ground.
(Oh…and Ireland to thump England! Lol! :-))
79 Sean T
You should try talking to my partner, who comes from Southern Thailand. You would hear some remarkably refreshing and straightforward views. I wouldn’t repeat them here because they might be misinterpreted. She’s no racist but her opinions are, shall we say…uncomplicated.
79 - and to think I got up at 6.30 this morning too!
53, Coldstone, It has become a tenet of fiscal policy, and an obligation under the Growth and Stability pact that government deficit should be contained subject to a 3% ceiling of GDP and be balanced over time.
No attention (or not nearly enough attention) is paid to whether the deficit is offset by public investment. In March 2005 the EU introduced some consideration of the size of public investment
in evaluating a country’s deficit, but this is left to the EU Commission’s discretion as one of many items to be considered. A fiscal deficit used to support an unproductive welfare system and one used to invest in public infrastructure should be assessed as such. Then we might have no train derailments in the UK in 2007, or the threat of energy supply collapse.
83 Hatfield Girl, are you Snowflake’s rather smarter sister?
71 I don’t think anyone has ever argued that Labour will get zero seats in the Welsh assembly elections.
All that has been said is the non-controversial point that Labour had an unbelievably fortunate election last time (winning almost every close fight with both the Tories and Plaid). In the current climate, they’re going to lose some seats.
I think the concensus has been that Labour will get roughly 25 — if I recollect correctly, Padarn was slightly more optimistics, and Punter less optimistic of Labour chances.
However, if you think everyone’s wrong …. as Punter says, you can go to the bookies and place some money on your hunch. You’ll get a great price.
85 - but doesn’t them losing constituency seats simply mean they’ll pick up more list seats?
85 Of course, that is why their net loss will only be about 4 (they have 29 seats at the moment).
I think they will lose more like 6 or 7 consituency seats — some of which will come back as list seats.
85. well, the 0 thing was a tongue in check comment (and I suppose it was clear). The consensus can be the one you said, but on late night postings (especially) some people start to list all seats Labour can lose and the lists sometimes got quite long.
No-one is doubting that Labour will lose seats…but I recall some people wondering if Morgan could have been in trouble in Cardiff West…and well, I doubt it
88 Andrea, I think Peter the Punter has repeatedly warned us of the dangers of hanging around this site late at night.
You’d be safer on the hardest street in Peckham.
89. Gwynfa, a mid 25 total and 6/7 constituency losses looks possible to me.
I suppose that the “Labour with 0 seats” impression can be generated partly by the fact that many posters can forecast that situation, but not everyone think about the same constituency losses. So you end up with many seats named (by different people) as potential losses.
Thanks Peter @ 80. I’m on.
Conservative shortlist for Tiverton and Honiton:
Caroline Dineage (2005 Portsmouth South candidate)
Vicky Ford (2005 Birmingham Northfield PPC and South Cambridgeshire councillor)
John Glen (former director of Con Research Department and 2001 Plymouth Devonport PPC)
Neil Parish MEP
88. I don’t recall anyone saying Cardiff West was under threat. Pen DDu said the majority would be sharply cut before becoming a Lib Dem longshot GE target, but that hardly seems an unreasonable prediction if an unlikely one.
85. If you think I’m less optimistic for Labour, have a look at Pen DDU pasting at 60 he thinks Labour are in trouble in Vale of Clwyd and Clwyd South. I ertainly didn’t predict those in the danger zone for Labour. Likewise a few months back I don’t think many saw Delyn being tipped as a possible Conservative gain.
84. Snowflakes? I don’t know where you are but where I am ‘ the hounds of Spring are on Winter’s traces…’
2 questions:
-Any chance that BBC Wales will order some polls for Assembly Elections in the next few months?
- what is considered as a disastrous result for Labour in Wales? I would say less than 24…any views on this?
The expectations can have an impact in the post election media coverage. I mean if the general consenus is, let’s say, Labour at 25 and then they got just 23, it’ll be viewed (and reported) in a more negative way than if the consensus was for Labour at 23 and then they get 24.
Is there any truth in the rumour I heard that Milord Monckton is sometimes a contributer to yhis site?
93. So Punter, how many seats are you expecting Labour to get next May?
96 Been a bit early on the old falling-down liquid, Augustus?
hatfield girl at 52: I have an interest in this as I helped with the Energy Review, and I really don’t agree that nobody is discussing how to steer investment into crucial energy infrastructre. My (biased) view is that the Review produced a sensible analysis of the problem and a reasonable outline of what we felt needed to be done. A judge has recently ruled that we didn’t give enough detail for an adequate consultaiton on the nuclear aspect, and that needs to be addressed in the White Paper (due in a few weeks) but I think the assessment in the Review is honest (if bleak) and the necessary conclusions were drawn. Have you read it and disagree, or not had the chance to read it?
I do agree with you that continuity of energy supply is up there with things like national defence and clean water are basic requirements of the political system, and parties who fail to offer a coherent approach that looks workable are not serious candidates for government. It probably goes further than we reasonably can here to discuss what the alternatives are in any detail, but the debate is out there for anyone who wants to take part.
24 coldstone - Cameron’s an upper middle class Englishman, the C of E is in his blood. During the leadership campaign Newsnight sent some smart aleck to go and ask him whether he believed ‘our Lord Jsesus was sent to save us from sin’ and other questions designed to try and paint him as a religous zealot. Cameron simply said he went to Church but not as often as he should but didn’t want to discuss it. Now he’s being painted as a typical middle class parent wanting to get their child into a good school. If Labour politician’s can send their kids to independent schools I don’t see why a tory shouldn’t send his to a Church school.
I’m off to find my shotgun !!!!!
Re 101, JackW, *Cough* why?
have I mentioned my blog today? No? Ah well here it is
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/
96. Well Witan seems well informed on matters environmental…
102 Benedict. I’m having a rugby nightmare.
The fightback begins !!
97. 25-26 if the election was today. But if Pen DDU is to be believed they could even dip as low as 22, but that isn’t on my radar yet.
BTW Your boys are beating Scotland 21-0!
99. Grateful for a link.
95 - I think the nature of PR means that the MSM won’t make a big deal about it unless Labour fail to form part of the coalition. If there is a rainbow coalition though that would be seen as something of a disaster and would be properly reported.
103…and the ‘Witan(agemot)’ was the Saxon precursor of the House of Lords…
92 Thanks Andrea… can you post a link to where you got the Tiverton and Honiton info - I would have thought a non-local candidate would be a little risky.
Thanks PtP for a great tip- 80 - on Nil Desperandum. Brilliant victory. Nice price. A happy Mike S!!
110 - Mike, what a great way to finish the day; it must have been very satisfying for you!
Off to get the latest Focus out; it features a cameo by a couple of this site’s denizens
105. Punter, in the end maybe I’m more pessimistic than you
109. Jon http://conservativehome.blogs.com/goldlist/2007/02/final_four_for__1.html
Peter the punter. I missed your tips today! Both winners at nice prices. Well done. I am very jealous!
112. You mean the rugby.
114. no, I meant Welsh Labour. IIRC in the “end of the year” pb.com competition, I predicted it at 25 seats
I think people are still cautious of forecasting the results of the Welsh elections because of the lack of polling (although as has been mentioned here before Vaughan Roderick claims to have seen 2 private polls from different parties which tell a similar story of Labour losing ground to both Plaid and Tories), and because there’s still some way to go. If Labour have a run-up to the elections as bad as last year’s English locals, then a total of 22-23 is realistic. But given a fair wind, they may yet motivate enough of their core vote to stay at 26-27.
For what it’s worth, I think the ‘par’ figures for each party at this stage are:
Labour 25-26
Plaid 13-14
Con 12-13
LD 7
Ind 1
If people are looking for long shot constituencies to look out for, some that I’ve heard mentioned are ones where a very low turnout is likely, e.g. Cardiff South, and maybe some in the north-east.
There will be one or two surprises, I’m sure, although if I knew where they were going to be I’d be a rich man.
OT, but last matched price for Gordon to be next Labour leader on Betfair is now out to 1.28. There is still a grand available to back at 1.25/6. However, best Lay price is now 1.29.
Well Welsh Labour certainly seem scared of the Tories, if their rhetoric is anything to go by.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/6391751.stm
Fantastic result in the rugby!
Congrats Andrea. Sorry, but too much Scots gloating when England lose not to feel something of a thrill. Plus it’s good for rugby for Italy to win occaisionally
116. Do you think Plaid will still outpoll the Tories in the popular vote as well. Welsh Goat had pucked out Cardiff South as well,but who are you tipping against Labour. Re the North seats like Delyn were said under threat and even Vale of Clwyd and Clwyd South. Any others you can think of. I agree with a fair wind, but with TB there I cannot see where they will get one from. This ambulance story seems a real killer, and is in the papers week after week now. Just seems like the press are determined to drip drip drip damaging stories on them I think.
Anyone bought UKelect? That does Welsh election forecasts.
119 - and when they do it’s almost always against Scotland
110. I got on Nil Desperandum too…thks very much Peter. Seems an appropriate motto for Scottish rugby…
Ironically, the hoodie behind Call Me Dave has been charged with possession of cannabis. The jokes write themselves.
So Blears launched her Deputy campaign
http://www.hazelblears.com/
Her first MP backers:
Caroline Flint (her campaign manager)
Stephen Pound
Kali Mountford (with all her hair)
Eric Joyce (the nanny and the travel expenses have not declared their support yet)
Dari Taylor
Andy Burnham
Rosemary McKenna (most famous for chairing the Labour’s selection of approved candidates for Holyrood…so if you think that Labour has crap MSPs, well, it’s her fault)
I love Mountford’s endorsement: “….She has extraordinary energy and a real connection with the people who matter.”
what does she mean with “people who matter”?
124 — in fact, a cannabis conviction for Dave’s new Mancunian chum could do more damage than Viscount Monckton.
… it’s the rich what gets the pleasure, and the poor what gets the blame
127 Quite right too , it is against the law …. unless you go to Eton and Oxford .
OT: does anyone have an opinion over how the whole gun/hoodie thing will work out for Cameron? risks making him appear soft on thugs or highlighting his broken society theme?
125 “Kali Mountford (with all her hair)”
It would be unusual for her hair to declare for somone else surely?
I really don’t get why they would want Hazel Blears as Deputy Leader. I can see the attraction of having a woman on the ticket but Ms Blears is a charisma free Blairite.
Cruddas will crush her I suspect.
Rugby is awful…England look hopeless and are set to be embarassed.
130. Her hair are so big that I wouldn’t rule out them arriving later
http://news.bbc.co.uk/media/images/38100000/jpg/_38100002_mountford_kali_440.jpg
Ah, I forgot to add Kitty Ussher among HB’s supporter.
131 - Very dull match, the Italy/Scotland one was good though. Don’t know why but I can find a one sided cricket match interesting whilst a one sided rugby match has me reaching for the off switch.
129- I think it’s a tough call it reinforces his commitment to the broken society theme in a very visual and powerful way. However the way the photo was captioned was generally intended to suggest he is a little naieve.
You never get 100% positive coverage though and better this than the way the media would have attaked IDS or Howard.
I think on balance it’s positive because it will help with floating voters who may not have taken on board Camerons commitment to the issue but hurt us slightly with the core vote who won’t like the nonsense “hug a hoodie” angle (which he never said). Ultimately once Gordon is PM the core vote will vote Conservative anyway so I think a net gain.
131 true enough but at least Ireland aren’t Italy. I expect Guido Fawkes will be having some fun though!
129 this is one of the more interesting questions in politics for me at the minute. I think it will serve Cameron very well indeed. The picture looked bad, then the press went after the lad in question and what he said, and where and how he lived, reflects SO, so badly on New Labour. This utter social breakdown happened on their watch, and “educashun” failed this kid, so did “tough on crime” (yeah right) and ASBO culture/tagging instead of young offender sentencing…
Britain is now looking at the boy and at what he represents and that is dreadful for Labour.
Plus it just underlines Cameron’s speech on fatherhood and the family in big thick red ink.
Calling for a recognition of how vital fathers are is one family-friendly policy that plays with both men and women. I think it’s a big winner for us.
With a picture such as that the audience easure themselves against the people in it. Who are they most like? Where does their sympathy lie? In that sense it’s reinforces the disgust, among all voters, that exists at the lifestyle of the underclass.
What is important for Cameron though is the cannabis question. If, as is likely, he is asked if he agrees with the arrest then he has to be careful what he says, I think he’d be best served using it as a chance to expand on his previous statements whilst the press are interested in it.
137 - He’s not going to do that Paul. As long as it’s the press trying delve into what he did as a kid the public are on his side -if he changes his line now it invalidates his previous answers and just kicks the whole thing off again.
The Cannabis thing and the broken society theme are not connected and Cameron would be unwise to make one.
Has anyone seen any odds for constituency betting in Wales? Could they post them here?
My tip for a shock remains Plaid in Clwyd West.
Yokel’s lessons in punting No. 345 (there’ll be a book with the other 344…)
After discussiosn with Punter the other night, I lumped some money on Italy to beat Scotland. So delighted was I with the result that I decided I was a genius and stuck some on England to shock Ireland.
Lesson: Don’t get carried away. One good bet and onr risky bet and the win on the good bet made be go for the risky bet after having originally decided not to bet on England/Ireland game earlier this morning.
Punter, if you turn up, I hope you went ahead with your feeling on Italy and are collecting your winnings. At this stage I still fancy the Welsh to edge the Italians.
Ah holy god feck, I’ve just read up and seen PtPs suggestion on Nil Desperandum.
I’ve been out most of the day. Crapola.
Ah well..what ya don’t have ya don’t miss according to my mother..still doesnt stop me wanting a castle in the Highlands though.
[141] And precisely what would wrong with one in Spain, Yokel?
142… Nah ive been around the world for various reasons and got to see some very nice places but for a castle it’s got to be Scotland…..a nice apartment on the South of France would be ok mind you…in fact looking around this house…a nice apartment here would do nicely!
I do not care where the next leader comes from, but this Country need to make the economy secondary in its concerns, number one concern is now getting this Countrys soul back before people turn on each other.
Labour have made the classic mistake of thinking that wealth/money is the answer to all our problems, that is a Conservative ideology.
And it now looks like a Conservative is at least making himself look like is now going to take a look at the nations well being as much as fill our pockets.
Gordon Brown must never become leader, he will do to England what William Wallace could only dream of.
Talking of betting on rugby Ireland look way overpriced on the Betting Exchanges for the Rugby World Cup this Autumn. Surely there must be value in backing them now and laying off later with a decent profit. I also think the same is true of England as well.
&nbs