URGENT: Take Ladbroke’s 8/1 on a 2007 election
July 27th, 2007
Now YouGov reports a 9% lead
The Telegraphs YouGov survey for July, our this morning, has more good news for Labour and could reinforce the growing calls for Gordon to go to the country early. These are the figures with comparisons on the last poll from the pollster five days ago - CON 32% (-1): LAB 41% (+1): LD 16% (+1)
This is the biggest lead by any pollster for Labour since November 2005 before David Cameron became Tory leader.The last time that YouGov had a margin on this scale was in August 2005.
As well as giving Gordon more confidence if he did decide to risk it the poll could add further to the pressure on David Cameron within the Tory party.
In the betting there are now almost no punters ready to bet against an early election on the Cantor Spreadfair spread market. The latest spread of the number of weeks until the election starting on Gordon’s succession on June 27th is 77 - 83.5
Ladbrokes, meanwhile, is still offering 8/1 on Gordon going to the country this year. That seems like a great bargain that won’t last long and they will only accept a maximum of £25 online.
Mike Smithson
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The recent by-elections might give Gord pause for thought . 41% and 44% only in safe Labour seats. Lib Dem tend to rise at general elections, and the BNP are operating nationally and just scored 9% at Sedgefield. What was interesting was that they pulled few votes from Conservative and chunks from labour.
The Conservatives are suffering from an assassination attempt on Cameron becasue of his stand against the EU Constitution. This topic could upset a general election. The Conservaives should bypass the main media and foot-soldier on this as in the main media they will represented as xenophobes etc if they overly feature it.
it’s not working
8/1 is good value while the polls remain as they are, and may offer trading options down the line (the best back price on Betfair is currently 7.4/1, a price which is probably being propped up by the Ladbroke’s offering). If Ladbroke’s do cut the odds, anyone backing this year could probably lay it off at a profit without too much difficulty.
But I remain to be convinced of the value of the bet for a win.
I live in one of the most marginal Conservative seats in the country - Shipley, where Philip Davies’ majority is not much more than 400. As far as I’m aware, Labour hasn’t even selected a candidate here yet; they certainly haven’t publicised who it is. If Brown was aiming for an October election, shouldn’t he be giving a hurry-up to consituencies like mine? We’ve not had any Labour literature (local elections apart) since 2005 and my assessment from the local elections is that the voluntary Labour party is not in great shape - even concentrating on a single ward this year there were rarely more than three people out.
Winning back places like Shipley will be incredibly difficult. They were won back in 1997 in a very different political climate and were held in part by the benefits of incumbency. That climate and those benefits are not now available. It will therefore be very difficult for Brown to enhance his majority, and if he can’t do that (or at least if the odds on him doing so are much longer than the odds on the majority falling), why risk a guarenteed three parliamentary sessions of Labour government?
8-1 does sound like good odds. All those smiling Gordons are making my head dizzy, so I hope he goes for it. The faces will either disappear or get fewer, or there will be so many that they get smaller. Both are fine by me.
3. there’s another major caveat to these recent polls, and therefore any early election - the number of ‘undecideds’ on various decisive questions is still high (as you would expect after just 4 weeks of a new pm in office)
“Not only is the electorate today considerably more volatile than in the past, but millions of voters are still not overly impressed with Labour’s performance in office and, despite his barnstorming performance so far, are still not sure what to make of Mr Brown.
As the figures in the chart indicate, a majority of voters, 52 per cent, still “disapprove of the Government’s record to date” and, asked who they think would make the best Prime Minister, 38 per cent persist in saying “Don’t know” - marginally more than the proportion, 37 per cent, opting for Mr Brown.
Another large proportion, 38 per cent, are unclear which major party, if either, could do a good job of managing the economy. Mishaps or misjudgments could still undo the new Prime Minister and his party.” (Telegraph)
Who knows how these undecideds would split during a campaign. Brown won’t be swayed by these poll figures alone. They will need to be sustained and improved before Brown will risk everything on an early election (and literally everything - losing his majority after six months would be so much worse even than being in office for three years, Callagan style)
Those posters who are talking down the possibility of an autumn GE, are they the same posters who said that Brown taking over from Blair would be a disaster for Labour?
Why people won’t vote for Brown:-
1. Hair, dreadful hair
2. Clothes, just looks wrong in a suit.
3. Scot, he’s just tooooo Scottish.
3. Voice, that dreadful accent, ‘cos he’s a Scot
4. Stalanist, the Gulags are on the way
5. Psychologically flawed, (Marcus’s favourite that one)
So what are you all worrying for, Cameron has got it made, Gordo will never get a lead in the polls with all that against him will he? Of course not, relax Tory majority of at least 150 on the way.
An early election could be the best news for the Conservatives as it would put an end to the insidious bias against them and focus the minds of the Mail and the Telegraph.
Brown’s policy declarations such as British jobs for British people, deport illegal immigrants etc demonstrate that he is more than aware of how much his vote is threatened by the BNP. If he had any doubts before, he will be certain after Sedgefield that the BNP will take 5% from him, and could possibly take 10%. They are operating in 500 Constituencies now.
The polls don’t take the BNP into account all putting ‘others’ at around 9-11%. For some reason they have decided to ignore the BNP factor.
The primary purpose of the polls being ‘adjusted’ recently seem to be to reinforce the assassination attempt on david cameron, which is coming across all media - BBC, Murdoch, even the Mail and seems to be the coordinated attempt to get Cameron, matching the one launched against IDS in 2003. The price of standing up against the EU is a coordinated assault from all media.
It is extraordinary how well Cameron’s support is holding up at 32% given what’s coming at him right now.
Well, another great poll, but us Labour supporters must keep our feet on the ground. No complacency here, I can tell you.
I must admit though that it is very amusing to see those who forecast no Bounce or even an increased Tory lead trying to justify themselves - “the press is against us!” Do me a favour! Cammy has had 18 glorious months - an he has done nothing with it.
8. Travesty - the idea that Murdoch and the Mail are opposing Cameron because he is opposed to the EU treaty is interesting, but perhaps lacking in substance.
I’d guess there are various reasons why the published UK polls lump all the parties except the the Tories, Labour and the Lib Dems together as ‘others’: their support is not sufficiently large to get meaningful month-on-month comparisons, weighting and adjustment methods have not been adequately developed to inflate for ’shy’ BNP voters (for example) or indeed to reduce for boastful BNP supporters who don’t then turn out, and their effect on elections is minimal - they won’t win any seats except in unusual local circumstances which can’t be modelled in national polls anyway.
Above all, the decision is down to the organisation who commissions the poll and how they want to portray it. Generally, it’s easier for readers if thigs are kept simple, which means three parties only.
Even yesterday after I posted here that if Brown achieved 10% poll leads he must call an election I was shouted down by replies that it wouldn’t happen.
Tories appear to be in a collective state of denial- it is quite amusing hearing their replies- summer holidays polling (all the Tories have flown away); media bias; bla, bla.
The Tories poor polling is not just down to Brown, they have themselves to blame.
7
agree. A snap election would solve many Tory problems and get focus on ousting the government. Not sure if that would be successful but 6 months of damaging media attacks on DC and a spring election could only help NuLab.
re 9. RedFlump - exactly which parts of the press have supported Cameron? The Tory leader’s problem is that he has so little support from the national dailies even those like the Mail and Telegraph which are traditional Tory supporters. The one unflinching backer has been the Express whenever it has had a spare moment when not pursuing its Diana conspiracy claim.
3. Very perceptive comment, David Herdson. By the way, I recommend Geoffrey Wheatcroft’s article in today’s Guardian,
“Cameron’s great mistake is copying Blair’s vulgar junta”
- the best analysis of Dave’s difficulties that I’ve seen so far. See: http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,,2135897,00.html
I said there would be no bounce, then slightly drew back from that by saying that if there was, it would not be sustained. I stick with that. This is a mere statistical blip, helped by:
- a blinding good first month for GB (even I would accept that)
- an enormous amount of good luck for GB (terrorist incidents, the floods, 2 dead cert by-election wins in the safest of seats, Tory misfortunes)
- an unfortunate series of tactical blunders for the Tories
- coupled with, until the last week or so, a complete media shut-down on reporting anything to do with Cameron or the Tories
- an unexpected amount of positive media reporting of Brown, even from media that had been talking him down for months/years
- disproportionately more Tories being unavailable due to holidays, weekends away etc when the pollsters come calling, skewing the figures
- a hardening of the Labour vote as Old Labour voters return from sitting on hands
- grumbling hardline Tories not expressing a preference for the Tories as a “protest vote” post the grammar schools row etc
- CPS not pursuing the cash for honours scandal
Nothing has happened in the past month which could have caused such a massive shift in public opinion on Cameron and Brown. So it’s all rubbish.
What is not good is that the media narrative now is “Cameron on the slide”. See last night’s Newsnight, whose Guardianistas took great delight in writing his obituary.
On a brighter note - Ming is safe, real votes for Labour are falling (Sedgefield, Southall), and Brown will be in torment at the moment. How will he sleep at night if this continues?
15 - Bob I think that is right. This is a very good poll for Labour and a bad one for us but now is not the time to lose our nerve.
I still dont think a GE is likely this year only 2.5 yrs into a government that still has a 66 majority! Maybe next Spring or autumn at the earliest.
Any comment from the leader of the Opposition?
He has had chances galore “to put the boot in”,failing which,in my opinion the LibDems will push his party hard for second spot in the opinion polls.
MINISTERS slipped out documents on the last day of parliament showing that civil service pensions liabilities had soared by £27 billion in just one year and now cost every UK household £5,000.
The revelation was made in one of 30 written statements released on the last day before MPs headed for their 11-week summer break.
Other information which emerged on what has been dubbed “Trash Thursday” included accounts showing that MPs’ claimed inflation-busting expenses and figures showing that ministerial car travel cost taxpayers almost £6 million a year.
Obscure government accounting documents showed that the Civil Service Pensions Scheme had liabilities now worth £128 billion, having soared by £27 billion in one year - a rise of more than 50 per cent in two years.
Philip Hammond, the Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury, accused the government of spin.
“Gordon Brown’s government obviously thinks the day Parliament rises is a ‘good day to bury bad news’,” he said.
Mr Hammond added that British families were each paying £5,000 to fund pension promises while private sector schemes were “shutting their doors after Mr Brown’s tax raid while he was Chancellor”.
Separate Commons’ accounts showed that MPs claimed £95.48 million in travel, pensions, allowances and staffing costs in 2006-7, up from £90.48 million the previous year.
The taxpayers contributed £11.49 million for MPs’ pensions last year, up from £10.17 million, an inflation-busting hike of 12.9 per cent.
Figures also showed £5.9 million was spent on cars, with £500,000 alone spent on eight cars for the Cabinet Office.
The Scotland Office spent the least, buying one car at the price of £62,200.
Raise your game David Cameron!!!!!!
13 - Hi admin - your remarks re the Express are too true! But come on - you must admit that Cameron had a fabulous press for at least the time he was up against Blair. He was the saviour of the tory party and was going to connect them to voters like never before. He was their Blair.
Yes, he is their Blair alright - just when the country decided that they have had quite enough of Blair and his style, thanks very much. Cameron (and his pip-squeak sidekick Osborne) underestimated Gordon and are now paying the price. Whether this will mean anything in the months to come reamins to be seen.
David at 3
I take your point that it’s not yet ‘all systems go’ for the party on the ground in Shipley; but does this really matter? Necessity is often a virtue and I can’t help feeling that ‘lift off’ can be achieved within a matter of days (candidate and campaign co-ordinator installed). Party workers are an issue anywhere and here I think the ‘mood’ is more important than the preparation. If the timing is right, then morale is heightened and you get the helpers. Having said all that I don’t think there’ll be 07 election; there are too many risks and these positive opinion polls have not been in place more than a couple of weeks.
re 18. I’m sorry this is simply not the case. The Mail and Telegraph have been very equivocal; Murdoch’s Times and Sun have hardly been supportive; the Mirror, Guardian and Indy support other parties. Cameron has failed to get even his own side’s tradition papers behind him. Just look back at the venom from Peter Hitchens and Simon Heffer in the Mail and Telegraph over the past eighteen months.
The real problem for the Conservatives is that notwithstanding the sheer incompetence of the Nu Labour party (Iraq, Afghanistan, collapsing economy, collapsing infrastructure, etc) no one actually has any idea what the conservatives stand for.
Nu labour are obviously the party of celebrity tat, greed and envy, but those are qualities which appeal to a depressingly high proportion of the general population.
Given any faintly credible option other than the three main parties, people cling to it with alacrity, as evidenced by the high polling rates for “others”, and the success, again and again of independents for elected mayors, and parties such as the nationalists (whose success stems from disaffection rather than genuine isolationism).
Roll on the next election; the Save Bedford Hospital Party is ready; our annual party conference will be on 2nd October; do come along (contact me for details)
Notwithstanding my comments at 15, I also agree 100% with 17 & 18.
I feel DC has tried too hard to be statesmanlike and consensual but there have been numerous times when he has failed to put the boot in. He needs to like New Labour in the mid 1990s - totally ruthless and determined to win. And less like Blair - I do think voters find Brown’s awkwardness and boring exterior a refreshing change. It won’t last, but DC needs to have a good think over the summer about how he puts himself across.
Re the “pip-squeak” Osborne, I tend to agree. Too young, too inexperienced in the real world, and hasn’t managed to overcome his toff-ish heritage like DC has. He’s a liability and whilst he has a key role play, it shouldn’t be as Shadow Chancellor.
And yes, they did underestimate Brown. I did too. But I think a lot of it is down to luck. GB’s had it of late, DC hasn’t. I think the Tories might well lose the battle of the first 100 days, but will still win the war.
6 - spot on Coldstone. Its been quite hilarious reading them over the last few weeks. Poor souls.
rik - i think you’re missing the point about a shorter parliament. having a quick election at the end of this year or early next year and beating cameron would in all probability leave the tories close to another civil war, giving brown a clear run to govern for another 3 or 4 years and stepping down for a younger PM to fight for a fifth term.
As paper readership shrinks, as the pool of potential readers drys up, is it sensible for any paper to give unconditional support to any political party?By supporting a political party, you are alienating, potential readership i.e. those who might buy that paper but for its political stance. The classic is the Evening Standard, a so called ‘local newspaper’ with the largest catchment area in Europe, its sales are poor, due I’ve no doubt to its right wing stance. I recently gave up taking my paper,(after over 30 years) as I can read it on the net, and all the others too, the money I save pays for my broadband.
Lots of meat in the Telegraph poll and some material for each of us to work on:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/graphics/2007/07/27/nbrown127big.gif
Tories can note that the ‘forced choice’ question (Labour or Tory) puts Labour ‘just’ 11% ahead vs. 9% in the main poll - this suggests that most of the Lab-Lib floaters have now moved over and there aren’t many more for Labour to get.
Labour supporters can note that of all the policies listed in order of popularity, the Labour ones occupy positions 1-9 and 12, the LibDem one (taxes) 10, and the Tory ones (European referendum, married allowances and booze tax) 11,13 and 14. All except the booze tax get majority support but the Opposition themes all have lots of dunnos (which probably conceals don’t cares too).
Everyone can note a large chunk of don’t knows, notably on Best PM and the economy.
On David Herdson’s point, I’m not surprised he’s not seen much Labour activity yet - the request to MPs in safe seats to help in Tory marginals was just a couple of weeks back and I think we’ve only recently ourselves woken up to the possibility of an early election with Labour gains. A couple of months ago Labour activists were morosely licking their wounds over another round of mediocre local elections, not planning to win a possible October election! That doesn’t necessarily matter - all parties are thoroughly unprepared, and the national trend will do the trick if it’s there.
However, my feeling is that this is the peak of the current wave, and the lead will settle in the 6-9 range for a while. There’s a good case for a snap election, but a measured drive towards a May election is more likely. Amused to see the Telegraph says the Tories plan to show gravitas by releasing their policy proposals ‘very slowly’ - yes, good idea, chaps, it’s worked up to now. Plan to release them in say July 2008, eh?
26 You are correct re Lib/Lab. YouGov has though given far smaller Tory Leads and larger Labour Leads off the back of depressing the Lib Dem vote to the mid teens. Is it true. Again depends if you prefer the YouGov or ICM approach…….
24 Re-paste:Mr Smithson. There is another aspect GB’s character you ignore the Historian. If as Mr Fear says you think he can hold or better his majority then he should go. But if as is a good chance as you yourself point Cameron shines in campaign and slashes or even eliminates his majority then why go now. Sure there’s a risk DC may win in a couple years, though the odds favour Labour, but GB the Historian may well calculate he can better secure his place in History in two to three years with a 60ish majority that he now regards as much his as Blairs thanks to his 2005 General Election role, as he couldin 4-5 years with a substantiallyreduced Majority or even no Majority at all. Had you considered that
by Punter July 26th, 2007 at 4:15 pm
10. when does simplifying the picture become distorting the truth?
I am saying that if the BNP are between 5-10% now and operating nationally, and not just in their original heartlands, which they are, it is misrepresenting the truth to lump them in with ‘others’ and call the lot of them as 9-11% as are ICM Guardian and YouGov.
It not only misrepresents the BNP’s current position, which you would think Sedgefield would have allayed any doubts over. It also therefore is substantially misrepresenting labour’s, as the veidence from Sedgefield and elsewhere indicates that the BNP are sucking votes from labour more than any other.
The media want to create simple narratives, and adjust their polls to give the result they want - the headline they want in effect. But the media’s grap on reality haS BECOME so tenuous that people might as well stop reading and listening. the truth is to be found elsewhere. HAVE YOU HEARD, SON?
The legions of tory supporters seem to be in complete denial; “the press are against us” give me a break, since when have the Mail and the Telegraph been anything but supporters of the tory cause, they might not be that keen on Cameron but they are most definitely tory through and through. The only papers that instinctively support labour are the Mirror and to some extent the Guardian hardly evidence of bias against the tories. “The polls are all wrong we won so many seats at the local elections in May”, conspiracy theory stuff here, local elections always tend to appeal more to supporters of the opposition than to the government plus it was a good opportunity to kick Blair, those of us who spent time on the doorstep knew that whilst labour inclined voters were not over keen to get to the polls on May 3rd they were not showing much interest in going anywhere else which is why the spreadfair seats ( buying labour and selling tories ) market has been so profitable as it was pretty obvious that as soon as Brown took over we would see a very different political situation.
Cameron’s shallowness and inexperience has been shown up over the past few weeks. He has no depth or hinterland only a vague desire to be in power. The amateur nature of his team ( many if not most of them part timers as highlighted by Ben Brogan in the Mail recently ) typified by the performance of Grant Shapps in Southall when compared with the committed full time work from the labour party demonstrates that the tories are not serious about winning and it shows.
Well, it is a bad poll for the Conservatives, and yes it does increase the likelyhood of an early election.
Summer will be interesting.
28 - if you think the BNP are at between 5-10% nationally in a general election, you’re even dafter than I thought you were when you posted Ealing Southall was a bad result for Labour (er, yes, the best performance by a governing party in a by election for 25 years).
[26] With great reluctance I have to disagree with Nick Palmer when he says all parties are thoroughly unprepared.
Wing-Commander Willis (O/C paperclips) is perpetually as prepared as ever Baden-Powell was. Why, only this morning he’s advising his fellow Tories that “now is not the time to panic” - it’ll take more than a full Roger to get our Rik rushing to the loo.
I think there is some serious delusion going on over what was, and what was not said by Tories before GB took over about his likely effect.
A clear majority view amongst every senior Tory I know was (and is) predicting a difficult summer for us and a sweet honeymoon for Gordon Brown and Labour that may last several months more.
The media have to reduce everything to good vs. bad and when Labour is ‘up’ the Tories have to be ‘down’ and vice versa.
Therefore the recent press coverage for Cameron that everything he is now doing is ‘wrong’ is completely predictable - and temporary.
What is surprising is how intelligent and well informed commentators on here from all sides have joined in with this myth-making - especially with the spin that Conservative ranks are seething with malcontents desperate to unseat Cameron.
They are not.
leave it out marcus - you and other spent months on here saying that brown would get no poll bounce.
31 Are you absolutely sure I thought Mr Smithson’s comparison disproved that
Mike
You and I have a recorded wager - £20 at 7/1 against an early election.
Care to double it?
The only result from last night Powys CC Welshpool Gungrog was LibDem hold :-
2004 result LibDem 450 Con 182
last night LibDem 234 Ind ( former Conservative MP for Montgomery ) 143 Ind 98 Con 95
33
Nice word temporary, used to cover a multitude of sins,
‘I now this building your working in is dreadful, but it is only temporary’ (how many of us have heard that one) whoops here comes the pension!
Bet you wish Cameron was as, ‘psychologically flawed’ as Brown Marcus?
31 ballyeric. are the 2800 good citizens of Sedgefield who voted BNP no longer in existence? And are they the only ones in the UK so minded? You do surprise me.
Sorry to rattle your cage, but your strong denial of this new reality gives me a clue as to how some polling organisations are similarly living in denial.
The Brown honeymoon is not real. It will be remembered forever afterwards as the Brown Nose Period (BNP).
Gordon should go for 07 - if he doesn’t he will regret it - it can’t get too much better for him than this !
By PA Elections Editor:
The council by-elections provided the only crumbs of comfort in a gloomy July for Tory leader David Cameron, amid disappointing results in two Westminster contests and poor opinion survey ratings.
The local polls suggest the “Brown bounce” is more of a blip.
Analysis of 12 contests over July, involving more than 20,000 voters, indicate a projected 8.6% Tory lead over Labour.
Allowing for observed differences in party performance between general elections and council polls when they have taken place on the same day, this would indicate a drop of just over 2% since May.
It would also a mean a tiny 0.5% swing to Labour since 2004 when most of the seats up for election next May were last fought.
If there is no general election in October, the 2008 council polls could be critical .
Labour would need to make big gains - the first since 1996 - to give Mr Brown the green light for a June general election.
On current trends this is not guaranteed.
The calculated three-party line-up for July is: C 40.1%; Lab 31.5%; Lib Dem 21.4%.
The only result this week saw Liberal Democrats defend their Welshpool Gungrog seat at Powys County Council, Mid Wales, despite losing nearly half their vote to non-party candidates. Tories came a poor fourth.
RESULTS: Powys County - Welshpool Gungrog: Lib Dem 234, No description 143, Ind 98, C 95. (June 2004 - Lib Dem 450, C 182). Lib Dem hold. Swing 9% Lib Dem to C.
Relevant piece in the Guardian:
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labour/story/0,,2135821,00.html
David Herdson: was your renaming of Tapestry in post 10 deliberate of a Freudian slip?
37, 41 If the former Conservative MP for Montgomery is now standing as an Independent candidate against an official Conservative one, does that mean that he has defected?
(Genuine question; I am not trying to tease Rik!)
43 He was MP 79-83 purely off the Rinkagate scandal, woof woof. A very long t ago. So goodness knows his political journey since then. Actualy just goes to show how much about personality as party there, and why I think Glyn Davies will have an impact on Lembit’s majority if not his probable victory
Is the real story how many don’t knows there are combined with how many people disaprrove of the governments record?
45 Benedict no. The real story remains YouGov’s Lib Dem treatment. See 27 even in the halcyon Tory days of Early May and earlier they were recording far smaller Tory leads, and are now recording far larger Labour ones off the back of incredibly low Lib Dem scores. I am at one with Mark Senior in finding this wholly implausible. Likewise Sean Fear thinks 15-16% in a General Election for the Lib Dem Dems impossible to believe. Until YouGov get this sorted out we have to put a pretty big question mark against them
The GB bounce is here - the question is whether it’s here to stay. Always thought it would happen to an extent - anti-Blair Lab voters who protested by going LibDem or sitting on their hands coming back home - and GB has made the start he needed to. Now it’s up to DC to find a way of fighting back strongly by taking a lead on issues. If not, then the squabbling - and it’s pretty clear that it’s going on among activists and elements of the parliamentary party - will continue, and we all know what happens to parties perceived to be divided. Do you concede, now, Mike Smithson, that you under-estimated GB as much as the Tory posters here did? After all, you were convincing yourself that GB would bomb. Not that the Tories have any choice other than to stick with DC - it’s down to him to show he is up to the task under fire, which is when the real test of any politician comes. Still believe he was the only choice they could make in 2005 (even if, from a partisan stance, I was desperately hoping they’d spontaneously combust and vote for Fantastic Dr Fox) but his task, like Kinnock post 83, is to get them back in the game. Maybe he is destined to be the prophet who never gets them to the Promised Land, but showed the way for his successor (or successor but one) to complete the journey. Of course there will be a Tory government in the future. But it doesn’t look likely to be before 2017 or thereabouts…..
46 the story of the last election was how large numbers who voted labour in 97 & 01 voted liberal. It is not implausable that many of these folks have, for the time being, returned to labour in the wake of blair’s departure. The figures for the tories in all the recent polls are pretty much what they got in 2005. So the figures for the libs are not unbelievable though I do think they will get a few points more in the next GE but not as much as last time.
If it is any help, I have placed £1 at 4/1 on a general election this year (as explained in my posting yesterday).
42. Would I do a thing like that on purpose?
My theory is that there are no new labour supporters since Gordo got in - just that old Labour supporters who wouldn’t vote for Blair are now expressing that they are likely now to leave the sofa and vote.
Shoot me down if you can prove otherwise..
49 Have you seen Guido’s site. What great candidate selections you have these days. A very Liberal attitude. Well made me laugh anyway
Realistic conservatives always thought the Cameron New Liberal Conservatism would be a two election strategy.
Especially coming from their current base of seats.
However people like Test/commentator have ramped the expectations that far, by always saying no problem we are going to win, and they kept repeating the mantra right through the recent bye elections.
Now some sort of reality has kicked in, and the wind coming out of their sails is palpable.
However they could still win like Heath did in 1970 against all expectations, but they need to show competence in a crisis now, not go the exact opposite into group think, of where all doomed.
I did expect David Cameron too become PM one day and still do, but only if the Conservative party realy wants power again, but I am getting the impression that some only want it on their terms, which is not a centrist agenda, if that is the case maybe Mr Cameron will not get the chance to serve his country and in my opinion that will be a pity.
51
Agree
I’ve just heard from the ‘Ministry of Truth’ Winston Smith has resigned, creating a vacancy. would any Tory poster to this site like to apply?
I get this feeling, that this time next year, Test, Benedict, Rik w, etc, will be on this site heaping praises on the new Tory leader, and saying, ‘David, David who?’
If of course I’m totally wrong, I will do the decent thing, change my name to, ‘Stonecold’(that’ll fox ‘em) and be my usual sneering self.
David Cameron will never be Prime Minister. His timing and luck are both awful. He arrives and declares that he is the “heir to Blair” just as everyone turns off Blair and his ways. This, together with the fact that Cammy and his coterie thought that Brown would be a socially retarded pushover proves that his judgement is, shall we say, a touch suspect.
55 But we haven’t had the polling impact of Shambo’s execution yet…………..
It is interesting being away for a while, and watching events unfolding from a distance.
It has been genuinely surprising that the Brown bounce has been as large as it has - certainly the dead cat is more lively than I expected.
However. I think we are in danger of over-reacting to short-term events. The polls have swung markedly in the past 4-6 weeks, only a couple of months after the Conservatives chalked up 900 gains and 40% vote share in the local elections.
Nick Palmer posted a few days ago how people were now turning negative on Cameron and once people make their minds up, they are hard to shift. I disagree - and would offer the current poll reversal for Brown (following years of negative polling for Brown) as evidence that opinions can shift quickly and markedly. We are in a state of great flux.
That being so, I would neither be a gleeful Labour poster nor a panicking Tory poster now. When we had a 40% share and some pollsters put Labour at 28%, I (and others) were posting here that whilst pleasing polls we should take little notice of them until after the conference season. I see no reason to alter that view just because the polls have changed.
The bounce will slip back, and we could be looking at very different picture in another 6 or 12 weeks. I am confident that the acknowledged style/personality traits of Brown can not be concealed for long. The media will fall out of love with his increasingly puritanical approach, and “events” or the EU consitution will intervene.
Brown’s bounce may be Major-esque. Equally it may well be Callahan-esque.
Panicking will not help deliver the latter. Cameron needs to dig in - “further, deeper, wider”. That will be true leadership.
55. Poor DC - he’ll never win anything - a couple of bye elections in ultra-safe Labour seats totally prove this. 900 council seats was a media fuelled blip - its not like a real poll like yougov or Populus.
The thing to remember about Brown bounce is - as was discussed here many months ago - we dont know if it is largely in the Labour heartlands or in the marginals. There is a large chance much of it is more “old” Labour support in held seats…
Re 54,Coldstone
odds have now dropped to 4/1
anyone notice Andy Neill echo my comments about there never being another Conservative leader last night - Yokel?
59 Spot on MBoy see 27. It is quite conceivable Brown could pile up mountainous majorities in places like Wigan again, improving his vote share while shipping a few seats in the South to Cameron where his appeal maybe less. BTW Are you a northern or southern Lib Dem
I think Gordon’s decision will be sensibly be decided by economic factors.
No matter what people say, there is every chance there will be a downturn starting at some point in the next 12-18 months. Call it global factors, call it crap economic management coming to bite him in the arse, it doesn’t matter.
Gordon has put a bit more of a chain on public spending in the near future. Whats that tell you?
41: So on real, actual votes, the Tories are projected to be 8.6% ahead of Labour.
That’s pretty close to Roger’s perfect 10, isn’t it.
Some bounce, this…
58 - Jamie, I am not complacent. The Tory party can and will revive itself. Just that I saw the look on Cammy’s face at PMQs. It doesn’t take much to get the old boy down. He hasn’t been tested like this before. And frankly if you tories are in this sort of state after 3 weeks of polls, imagine how bad it will get if the bounce sustains itself. If Gordon is in the 5-7% lead range come new year, what are you going to do then? The basic rate tax cuts are coming in April remember. All set for May 2008!
53 - “I did expect David Cameron too become PM one day and still do, but only if the Conservative party realy wants power again, but I am getting the impression that some only want it on their terms, which is not a centrist agenda, if that is the case maybe Mr Cameron will not get the chance to serve his country and in my opinion that will be a pity.”
All this assumes that the Tories will forever remain a policy free zone, and that Brown will continuously walk on water.
What must really hurt Tories right now is the fact that little over a year ago they were about 8-9% ahead in the polls. I expect though that Brown’s current popularity is quite soft (like Cameron’s is) and if truth be told they’re pretty much as popular as each other.
If you haven’t seen my link on the previous thread about perceptions from 2001, when the Tories were genuinely in trouble, do so.
61. You didnt follow through on the bet Pimpernel despite being called on it several times. The final terms were made clear and you failed to respond after a point even though I was posting on a few occasions after you had on other topics.
You missed your chance. When it came to it, you didnt deliver. That tells me everything I need to know about what type of charcater I’m dealing with. Thus there is no point in calling me out, because its irrelevant.
Nick Palmer You leave me wondering about your definition of ‘disaster’ when you can say, “A couple of months ago Labour activists were morosely licking their wounds over another round of mediocre local elections”. Mediocre?
And now there is such Labour strength that you are going to concentrate more resources on Tory/Labour marginals that you could not win in 2005 with the Tories still basically down on their core vote.
The lack of realism seems fairly widespread and certainly not restricted to Tory supporters.
57 Not sure it was “years of negative polling for Brown”. Agree that the last 18 months had seen his popularity drop away, but before that he’d been highly-regarded from voters of all persuasions. Admit that unconvinced current polls are entirely accurate, but feel Lab are ahead and will remain so through to Conference season - and beyond. Would be nice, Mike, to see a link to the 2007 prediction competition - and to remember what people here were saying about GB bounce/dip at the turn of the year.
Re 65, Redflump, “The basic rate tax cuts are coming in April remember. All set for May 2008!”
Surely you mean increase as the 10p band disappears?
42. all bets are off for 2007. Gordian says it’s possible around May next year at earliest.
Current media anti-cameron frenzy is a coordinated assassination attempt, similar to the IDS one in October 2003. Betsygate then is Floodgate now. Both 99% poppycock.
Clearly Nick Palmer is carrying out his instructions to be BNP blind, maintaining silence on this matter as prescribed for the Brown Nose Period.
I have posted this before but the analysis is very relevant now to think strategically about the best time to call an election;
The Tories require 2 variables going in their favour to get into the largest party/majority range- they need to present themselves as a viable credible alternative with credible policies, and they need Brown and his government to be considered incompetent/ out of touch. 1 of these is not enough, and will leave the Tories treading water.
Brown only needs one variable in his favour- either to be viewed as competent, or for the Tories to be viewed as incompetent/ out of touch. In 2005 a pretty much out of touch Labour party won, not because of any particular love from the British people (Blair had lost the confidence of the public by then), but largely because people didn’t trust the Tories with power. 1 variable going in Labour’s favour secured them a victory.
Incumbent government’s usually only need 1 variable- if the opposition is not credible they will always have the upper hand no matter how unpopular they are. Bush 2004, Sarkozy 2007, Chirac 2002, Blair 2005. Thus the maxim “government’s lose elections”- for an incumbent government to lose they need to lose the confidence and trust of the people whilst the opposition provides a credible alternative.
1 year ago Cameron presented as an in tune leader supported by a united party- i.e a credible alternative. Labour on the other hand were imploding. The opinion polls began to put the Tories within the kind of range to get a majority, certainly clearly the largest party, and deservedly so. They reflected pretty much where the parties were- 2 variables going in the Tories favour.
Now we have Brown viewed largely as competent, and the Tories disunited and out of touch. Talking about Europe will make them appear more out of touch.
So Brown has 2 variables in his favour- how long will this situation continue for? The last time Labour had the 2 variables going together was at the start of the Iraq war in 2003. What we know (and Brown knows) is that the 2 variable state cannot last- either the Tories will put themselves back together, or events will undermine credibility in Brown and his government.
If the 2 variables continue into September Brown must call an election because for the first time since 2001 Labour will be in a strong position to consider increasing their majority. That said even 1 variable still gives Brown a good chance to maintain a relatively healthy majority of 20-40 as per 2005.
You heard it here first - Labour will INCREASE their majority in the next election according tyson & NP.
All should read Bagehot. A sterling summary of the current situation
67 - you do make me laugh Yokel.
I took you up on your final bet, after some unwinnable offers from yourself, subject to some clarifications about future devlopments. I did remind you of the bet several times afterwards, but you never responded in anything like a short timeframe, and unlike yourself maybe, I do not read every post here.
The original thread where the bet was originally offered has my terms laid out, and you only needed to either agree the clarifications for the bet to be on, or to offer alternatives.
I offered solutions for how the bet would continue in the event of a formal split within the Conservative party - ie The True Blue Party vs New Conservatives Party etc. You welched on agreeing how future developments would affect the bet. Hence the bet stood empty.
You may have responded there since I last checked several days ago, but it is you who welched on the bet, as quite obviously the reality of your offer came home to roost and you realised that yes indeed, it is quite possible you will never see another Conservative Prime Minister again
Cameron really doesn’t have much support from the press, that’s very clear at the moment, he’s either too wet for the right wing press or he’s a tory so he’s not supported by the left wing press; what I would like to see is the press emasculated in their power, someone winning despite them would be very welcome. Policy shouldn’t be dictated by the Murdoch’s of this world or their journalists.
73 - I have been saying that for the last few months tbh!
There’s a fair-minded article in the Economist Bagehot column (yes there are a few around if you search) which ackowledges says that DC has had bad luck because he did n’t foresee the extent to which people apparently think this is a new government and have collective amnesia about the last ten years. It also says that Blair apparently was really unpopular. It does criticise DC for not doing more in his eighteen months but certainly does n’t write him off.
The Editor is quite right in his comment about the attitude of the national dailies.
Punter: I am Westcountry
66,
I never assume anything especially that the Tories will remain a policy free zone and that Brown will continuously walk on water.
Both are obviously laughable concepts.
But if the Conservative party does re-trench to former positioning, and starts to loose its nerve on taking the centrist agenda, they might as well let their best asset David Cameron go.
For gods sake they are trying to attract people who haven`t voted for them the past three elections, not the ones who have and always will.
If I was David Cameron , think I would be in despair in regard to some sections of his party.
Where I live a Conservative area, most hardened conservatives don`t have a good word to say about him, but they aren`t going to swing the election they are a given.
Many centrist voters are still willing to listen, but if he drowned out by a negative resonse from sections of his party the games up.
All these people saying the country needs someone different from Blair - very, very short memories. Like a child distracted by new things, we saw it with Cameron and now Brown, it doesn’t last.
Brown’s best chance is an October election, I said that some days ago. The thought struck me yesterday though that, in spite of all the evidence, he won’t, he can’t. Psychologically he just isn’t primed for it and, like a supertanker in the ocean, it will take too long for him execute an about turn. Logic is now suspended, wrong is right, old is new, dull is interesting, nothing is something, I just laid off my 2007 bet.
Re 72, Tyson, well argued post, though I very much doubt that Brown could increase his majority, he could well cement one in for the next five years.
41, 64
Very good and just what I thought, real election results are miles away from this polling!
Bring on an autumn election. There will be red Labour blood on the (metaphorical) carpet!
76 - I think the press has deteriorated a lot in quality. Now they just seem to want to back whoever’s doing better. It’s true that in the old days the Tories had the majority of the national dailies but it did n’t stop Labour winning elections and Labour always had its loyal ones. Nor did a paper switch sides when its party was doing badly.
68 Labour certainly had worse than “mediocre” results. Being reduced to 2 seats in Hemel Hempstead, 2 in Peterborough, 5 in Portsmouth, 5 in NE Someerset etc. is very poor, and is a very weak base from which either to regain seats lost in 2005, or to retain those which were only held narrowly.
There are according to Anthony Wells, 11 seats with Labour MPs that are notionally Conservative, and 5 with Conservative MPs that are notionally Labour. Obviously it makes sense for Labour to devote resources to such seats, but I think they’d be wasting their time campaigning in any other marginal Conservative seats.
Opinion polls can often exaggerate shifts in public opinion. I think that happened for the Conservatives when Cameron took over (IIRC MORI showed Tory support rising by 9% in a fortnight) and I think it’s happening for Brown now.
That said, there is absolutely no doubt that the Conservative leadership underrated Brown’s abilities, and need to raise their performance considerably.
73-Jamie- actually I cannot see Labour increasing their majority because I feel that the Tories will get their act together before an election, and provide something of a more even battle.
What I fail to see if Brown/ and his government losing his credibility before then.
For the first election possibly since god knows when we may have a unique situation where people are given the opportunity to make a positive choice in a more balanced match up. I.E- I will vote for x because I like them more than y, not because I dislike x less than y (as 2005), or I like x, but am also terrified that y could get to power (2001), or I like x but am also terrified that y could stay in power (1997).
Maybe 1951- the last election when people made a positive choice against an incumbent government viewed fairly positively- even then I think Lab won more votes, but lost the election.
83 Don’t assume for one moment the Conservatives are really 8% ahead, they’re not. But it’s useful to examine those results to look at trends. There has been a shift to Labour, but certainly not as dramatic as opinion polls suggest.
75 Pimpernel
I followed your correspondence with Yokel with considerable interest, not least because I had offered my services as arbiter, as you may recall.
You misrepresent the exchanges. He made every effort to conclude the agreement but you went silent. He decided therefore that you no longer wished to have the bet. In the circumstances, I think that was a reasonable conclusion.
By the way, the term is ‘to welsh’, but since it is implicitly racist, it is not much used these days. It is better to speak of ‘reneging’.
In my opinion, if anybody reneged on the bet, Pimpernel, it was you.
48 - The real scandal in the polls, and lib dems are going to be annoyed with me for saying this (but it proves what I said all along), is that Brown’s honeymoon is pretty much all because of lib dem voters drifting to labour. All those who took their eye off the ball and spent their time bashing Cameron just look at what you’ve wrought will you? An awful lib dem total, the chance of a hung parliament disappeared and the causes of liberalism set back by this most illiberal government. Are you satisfied now, cuting off your nose to spite your face real#ly was a good idea wasn’t it?
We need a leader who will now drag those voters back into the lib dem camp, if Ming won’t do it then there has to be a change. I didn’t want two leader changes close together but, if he won’t go by his own volition, then people should start moving against him now.
84. In 2003 October all titles went for IDS and launched Betsygate in unison. In 2007 July all titles in unison have gone for Cameron launching Floodgate, in very similar manner.
These assassination attempts are targeted on eurosceptic Conservative leaders. God knows how they recruit all newspapers to join in at once and attack their own side in many cases. Either the threat in not joining in is so serious, or the rewards so great that they feel they have no choice. It’s pure brutal raw power in play, that’s for sure…and nothing about democracy that you seem to think it might be.
IDS lost. Cameron will survive.
If he doesn’t democracy is finally dead.
83 - of course, locals are hardly representative samples, are they?
Dez 80 - what I think makes Cameron different is that he seems the most likely to move the Tories centrist. I get the impression he’s not so much a prisoner to the more extreme elements of his party as Hague, IDS, and even Howard were.
The reactions from the usual quarters bears that out. I’m sure I read something on ConIDS last night by a poster who expressed horror that the next intake of Tory MPs will be modernisers (although that could have been the Guinness).
Big irony that the very same people calling for Cameron to go are the same ones who left the big mess in the first place for him to clean up. Why else did Cameron have to do 18 months of decontaminating the Tory brand?
This will IMO be the most difficult bit of Cameron’s leadership as an opposition leader, even more than a GE.
87. Sean I await your column today with particular interest.
I hesitate to type this, because pb-ers would be very justified in saying you rubbish all bad Tory polls.
However, I don’t buy this poll and I doubt Gordon does either because a) local and parliamentary by elections do not bear it out, and b) the Liberal Democrats are simply too low at 16%. They will recover at Labour’s expense. and also c) when push comes to shove Tory voters will come out against Labour. I don’t know that Labour voters will. And also in my gut I just don’t buy that what happened in May has been reversed on a 20% swing!
I say again, bring on an election if you dare Gordon Brown. You will most assuredly lose your majority.
83 Test- from 41
“It would also a mean a tiny 0.5% swing to Labour since 2004 when most of the seats up for election next May were last fought”.
So Test there is a swing of 0.5% to Brown- the year before Labour last won an election.
89. Lib Dems didn’t return to Brown at Sedgefield or Southall - only in these recent imaginary polls which seem to be highly suspect, do all labour’s dreams come true.
The Guardian had to issue an apology for misleading yesterday, because their poll deceptions were getting so obvious.
Think about it. If Brown was really 10% ahead, would he hesitate to run to the polls? Of course not. It’s all bollocks.
88 - PTP - can you remind me of the original thread title so I can just go back and check what you said - as I think you should!
Then it can perhaps be linked here for easier access for anyone who doubts my sincerity in the matter, as both yourself and Yokel are calling me on this.
85 - I agree,they seem to have been much too complacent and thought Gordon would do all their work for them. I heard what the MP of some friends (quite senior and a moderniser) and a former MP I spoke to said a few months ago. Their attitude was “we can’t wait for Blair to go and Brown to take over.”
97 but sbj, the analysis at 15 is spot on isn’t it if you look at the political luck factor (horrendous for the country but politically advantageous).
89 ukPaul- the Tories currently polling at IDS levels from a height of 40% doesn’t strike me that your analysis that the Brown honeymoon is based purely on LD votes is quite correct.
96 I’m not interested, Pimpernel. A bet is not enforceable, here or anywhere, under English law. You have to trust the people you bet with.
I recall the correspondence well. He gave up after pressing you several times. I can understand why. If you were no longer interested, there was no point in him pursuing it.
97 Quite why they thought Blair was more popular in the country than Brown is a mystery to me.
I agree 93. Labour are ahead but ICM’s 6% not YouGov’s 9%, I simply do not buy the 16% and less figures for the Liberal Democrats that YouGov consistently give us. 18% is I would argu the actual base polling level of Liberal Democrat support
75. Its all in the archives Pimpernel. It was being tied down to the nth degree because it had to be subject to clear understanding given that it was a long term bet, over 3 elections in fact and thus future circumstance needed to be taken into account. I also attemted to clarify exactly what you were giving me in odds terms so that it was absolutely clear.
Apart from your honour, which I understand you may feel the need to uphold, the posts are there and I’m done with it now.
95 - All the things that led people to vote lib dem at the last election are still there; Iraq, the other parties being too similar, Iraq, government corruption, Iraq, ID cards, Iraq, etc.
We cannot allow people to have a collective amnesia over what Brown is, how he is the same as Blair, how he is reponsible for the things that he now seeks to claim were past decisions and so on.
All that Brown is, is a marketing tool, the product that everyone thinks is new but is relabelled. The product that is sold as being more worthy (it may cost you more but you feel good about it), the PR spin around Brown is helping him, the attacks on Cameron for PR are a classic example of misdirection in that sense. All that is needed to be done is to scrub off that PR sheen to reveal the reality beneath.
82- I doubt it too, its the least likely but it depends on perceptions of the Tories.
The worse they seem then the more likely it becomes.
The main reasons being the number of marginals and super marginals (on all sides) and that the lower down the polls either LAB or CON go- the closer they get to the LD’s which increases the ferocity in any fights with them ( LD policy starts tilting in your direction also).
The other Reason is the view that 2005 was an apathy election,Where lots of voters stayed at home.
How many of them would vote Tory should they be energised to vote again is the killer variable. If the Con vote is not moving out of its Core in the low 30%s then any returning voters could be bad news for them.
Punter the Libs are way more resilient than that - I put them at 20%
91. Lets igonre that it was omillions of votes cast vs 1000.
The real difference between the locals and a yougov poll is that 900 lucky council wards (say 1.5 million people ) now have a Conservative representing them rather than a leftie.
If you win a yougov poll there are 5 lucky party appratchniks who can post on a website how great their dear leader is.
Re 86, Tyson, “What I fail to see if Brown/ and his government losing his credibility before then.”
There is the economy. See my blog for more details, and whilst you are there you can click on the “email me” link, and email me?
99 - Check the last election percentage, now check the percentage in polls today, it’s clear as clear could be.
Re 72/73
An increased Labour majority is not beyond the bounds of possibility. The 2005 campaign was dominated completely by Iraq, with the Attorney General’s advice about the legality of the war being leaked on the weekend before polling day. It is hard to see how it could have been worse for Labour, but we (I am an activist & former councillor in London) still won because we were seen as competent on the domestic front, the economy was chugging along nicely and the Tories were talking to their core voters, who are increasingly unrepresentative of the country as a whole. Iraq will not be so important next time round, and as long as GB continues to appear competent and the economy continues to grow the outlook for Labour is likely to remain positive.
101 Depends on which part of the Country doesn’t it. Most Tory MPs are in the South.Quite possible GB can be racking up support in the traditional Northern areas, while not matching the same pace in the South
100 - that’s crap.
If you’re going to call someone then print the proof.
If you link to the original thread - which I can’t find - it will show quite clearly I tried to tie up loose ends and go ahead with the bet.
28. The BNP got a worse result in Sedgefield than UKIP achieved in Hartlepool.
For months we had ‘named leaders at next GE’ polls showing how worse things would be for Labour under Brown, and the opposite has happened.
In the details of that ‘like/dislike party/leader’ poll, you will find Lib Dems splitting 28%/18% in favour of Labour over Conservative, so Cameron has failed to win even LibDem waverers over.
The Tories are in denial about how grim things are for them.
89 I am sorry Paul but you are wrong , the change is not from LibDem to Labour but mostly a direct switch from Conservative to Labour .
Compare Yougov March to now Con -7 Lab + 10 LibDem N/C Others -3
Look at the details in the ICM poll comparing vote at 2005 GE to voting intention now . LibDem in 2005 to Labour now just 10 people changing ; Labour in 2005 to LibDem nowjust 8 people changing virtually a stalemate .
82 Benedict- I actually think that it would be next to impossible for Labour to increase its majority- the Tories simply cannot present as badly as they have done, and with 10/11 years of government they have plenty of targets to aim at in a campaign. Rather spoilt for choice, very much as Labour were in 1997.
However, if the Tories start flogging EVEL, Europe, and immigration over the coming months and into an election campaign you will know they are going defensive, and have already given up the chase of being the largest party. This strategy would bring them to 240 at best, and at the the most optimistic deprive Labour of a majority. More likely than not such a strategy would leave them pretty much unchanged.
Cameron must carry on modernising and fight Labour positively on health, education, social breakdown and social justice, whilst also portraying himself as modern. He must at least push the floating voter into making a positive choice at the polls.
104 “All that Brown is, is a marketing tool” - pot, kettle methinks!!
101 I think it’s because despite everything he’d performed well electorally defeating them three times, has quite a lot of personal charm, and they were contrasting his personality and fluency at the dispatch box with Brown’s
By the way,one of the apparent successes of the new regime is airbrushing him completely - Tony who?
is anybody else having problems accessing spreadfair or is it just some issue with my internet connection?
8/1 on 2007 GE still available with VCbet. Have now laid off most my earlier 16/1 from Hills, which I’ll probably re-invest in the 5/1 on a 2008 GE if it comes back up.
115. EVEL is not a right/left issue - its a fair/unfair issue.
101- sean fear- to your credit you were one of the few Tories actually saying the Brown/ Cameron named polls were meaningless whilst Blair was still leader. I remember well because I was beginning to worry a bit about these polls, and your (now correct) analysis gave me some reassurance.
Have you got plans this weekend for a spree of virgin sacrifices? It would hep control our very poor teenage pregnancy stats.
120 - no, it’s a non-issue
I think you should distinguish between Cameron and his top team and some Tory MPs and commentators.
The Cameron team never assumed anything else but a Brown bounce. A new PM always gets a bounce: Major, Callaghan, even Eden and Macmillan probably did if we had real polls from that era. And Douglas Home certainly got one.
The dafter MPs though seemed to believe the polls about Brown’s character would sink him once he is in the job, forgetting how the British will give almost anyone a second chance.
It is Ok to attack a contender for the top job but people overall hate the new boy being viciously attacked before he can prove himself in his new job. That is why the early attacks on Cameron were ineffective and rebounded.
But once Brown has had his chance then those polls might indicate the way he should be attacked, as the charges will start to resonate with the voters who will drift back to their former opinions if given enough reason. And there are plenty.
The line will be promises broken and flim flam announcements which are not what they seem. Both take time to build up but both are deadly in the longer term.
What will Brown look like as a PM under stress. Last week he was already getting rumpled again. When things go wrong and he cannot hide as he has done in the past then we might see a very different picture.
The game is not lost or won, it is just starting.
120 EVEL is a non issue which has virtually no interest to the vast majority of voters .
Re 115, tyson, I broadly agree, though it is important for Cameron to have polices on areas like immigration, EVOL etc. he just needs to spend much less time talking about them compared to the areas you think he should press.
It is a difficult trick because the press just love talking about Conservatives and immigration etc.