YouGov boost for Boris over Ken?
July 29th, 2007
The Internet pollster has him 6% ahead amongst Londoners?
Tucked away in the detailed data from YouGov’s July poll for the Daily Telegraph is a question about the mayor of London that I have not seen reported anywhere - how Boris and Ken are doing against each other for the London Mayoralty.
For when asked “If you had a vote and had to choose, who would you prefer to see elected as the next Mayor of London, Boris Johnson or Ken Livingstone?” those surveyed split Boris 36%: Ken 35%: Dont Know 29%.
But this was, of course, a national poll and the vast bulk of those surveyed don’t live in the capitial will have no vote in May next year. Also it was asking a forced question with no option to say Lib Dem or any other party or candidate. But amongst the Londoners in the survey the split was Boris 46% Ken 40%.
To give an idea of the impact of Boris the same Londoners in the survey gave the following shares on the main voting intention question for the next general election CON 35%: LAB 45%: LD 18%. And to YouGov’s “Cameron’s Tory government against a Brown Labour one” forced choice the Londoners split LAB 48%: CON 36%.
So the pulling power (if that is the best term to use in relation to Boris!) of Johnson in London is quite extraordinary and he appears to be doing so much better than his party.
Johnson, of course, still has to fight a campaign to get the Tory nomination. If he does win, as seems highly likely then it might be worth a bet.
UPDATE: The overall number of people polled was 1837 of which 236 were in London, so the numbers are small.
Mike Smithson
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Go Bozza Go!!
As I have said before, there is a long time to go before the mayoral election. Ample time for Boris to put his foot in it. I doubt his candidacy will last until election time.
What was the size of the London sample though Mike. How many Lab and how many Con?
Of course the difficulty in assessing the merit of these poles lies in ascertaining who exactly is entitled to vote in the election.
Personally I think votes should be available only to those born within the sound of Bow Bells, but I suppose that’s a bit racist.
In the Sunday Times a ‘Nick Ferrari’ (who he?) was claiming that he’s gearing up for a run at it. It suggests he’s a sort of poor man’s Richard Littlejohn (who, let’s face it, is poor enough as it is).
ukpaul It seems this disc jockey favours, inter alia, doubling income tax on human rights lawyers. Should appeal to one poster I can think of.
As I have mentioned before the sample sizes for the sub samples are very sample and Margins Of Error are very high . One poll’s sub samples must be treated with great caution and really ignored . As I said on the previous thread Yougov’s last poll had LibDems in Scotland at just 4% compared to Moris’s 17% . Mori’s last London figures were equally unbelievable Lab 59% Con 28% LibDem 9% .
Still has a fight?! Please. As has been said only Boris can stop Boris. He is up against characters stratight out of Private Eye, Phil Space and Dr Who. He’ll get the nomination and then we got the game on!
“the difficulty in assessing the merit of these poles ”
Pretty good at plumbing and working in coffee shops.
7 Your opinions welcome on Sean Fear’s thread on Welsh Liberal Democrat prospects
7 ooops should say sub samples are very small
9 LOL!
The post was meant to be funny, but not in that way!
5:’‘Nick Ferrari’ (who he?)’
He’s this odious, loud-mouthed shock jock - a self-appointed ‘Voice of the People’ type. Newsnight occasionally bus him in when they want someone to slag off David Cameron (though, of course, his views on any other subject would be utterly beyond the boundaries of acceptability for the BBC).
10 The 2 clear targets are Swansea West and Newport East , I am sure the longer term strategy was to concentrate here in next year’s local elections in Wales and build on this year’s WA results . A GE this year would of course throw this off course .
I’d say Boris was well worth a punt now - especially if there’s a spreadbetting market available.
He’s likely to fluctuate quite wildly, so there’s money to be made by constant observation of the market…
Regarding global warming thoughts on the last thread. GW will cause milder, wetter winters and drier, hotter summers in the UK. The floods this summer are caused by El Nino disrupting the gulf stream. I love how global warming deniers can’t understand how you can have an upwards trend and still have variability, as if one summer’s storms disprove the mountains of evidence.
15 - “He’s likely to fluctuate quite wildly” - yes, that sums him up very nicely!
Woohoo! Surely that must make him favourite, I know he has a tendency to gaffe, but so does Ken, the difference generally being that Ken’s are more malicious (daft as Boris’ comments about Liverpool were, I’d rather be accused of wallowing in self-pity than be likened to a concentration camp guard!)
By the way, seeing this is a political betting site, how come nobody mentioned anything about the Japanese elections? Japan is the second most powerful economy in the world, after all.
Does YouGov use the TV regions? It looks likely that this didn’t provide a significant distortion, looking at the GE numbers. With all the caveats on sampling size, that’s reasonably good news for BJ - but could well bring out the Labour core vote if he maintains the lead.
Those London figures would actually translate, if repeated at a GE, to a 4% swing to Labour in London, with the Tories advancing slightly, and the LDs suffering the most.
tjm @ 2:23 - La Niña, not El Niño.
19 Any UK markets on it, tjm?
The sample size is too small for conclusions. Question is why was YG polling nationally? Run a poll in London!
19 The opposition Democratic Party seem to have got a decisive victory in their upper house elections.
19: Asked about the Japanese elections a while back - apparently there aren’t any markets on it…
Looks like an even-worse-than-expected disaster for the Liberal Democrats, and a great performance by Ozawa, who by the way has the distinction of being one of the only opposition politicians in the democratic world who can claim to have actually managed to kill a sitting Prime Minister.
The current PM, Abe, says he’s carrying on, but it’s not clear that his party will let him…
25 Are the Japanese psychologically ready to trust the DPJ as a potential Party of Government though, is this just being used as a free hit against the LDP, with everyone falling into line again when Abe gets replaced by Aso or AN Other
25: My hunch is that although there was an element of the free-kick thing, the DPJ are established enough, and Ozawa taken seriously enough, that they have a decent shot next time - provided they can make it to the next general election without screwing up, and provided Ozawa doesn’t revert to type and start breaking things. The DPJ are still quite seriously divided over policy, but then historically the LDP have been as well, and it doesn’t seem to particularly bother the voters.
Having said that, this was pretty close to a perfect storm for the opposition, with exquisitely-timed scandals piling up on top of hilariously bone-headed administrative screw-ups that have really shaken the LDP’s reputation for competence. It won’t necessarily be as easy for them in the next lower house election, especially if they get a new Prime Minister.
27 Yes I believe in one gaffe Abe got the names in wrong order and urged people to vote for the DPJ as party of reform! Can’t imagine too many votes in Hiroshima or Nagasaki either. Certainly Abe has been unlucky however the Pensions thing wasn’t his fault. Any Portillo moments where LDP bigshots have been humiliatingly beaten? But in your bones what chance you now give the DPJ. Surely the LDP won’t be mad enough to give a snap poll when they are on a roll
Edmund in Tlkyo,
“Ozawa, who by the way has the distinction of being one of the only opposition politicians in the democratic world who can claim to have actually managed to kill a sitting Prime Minister.”
You can’t just leave that one hanging in mid-air! How so?
(And what odds on Cameron joining that exclusive list?)
29. Cameron already has: He has bagged Blair early and got rid of another party leader - CK.
If it was not for Cameron i think Blair may have still been ensconced in no.10.
28: One relatively big dog beaten, but no real Portillo moments. The next election is a while off and a lot can happen between then and now. Especially with Ozawa involved. Without knowing that much about these things, purely in my bones, I’d give the LDP a 70% chance of winning the next general election. I’d be interested to hear if there’s a market somewhere where better-informed people are backing their hunches with hard cash.
The “killing the Prime Minister” thing: Ozawa, then leader of the right-wing Liberal Party, was previously in coalition with the LDP under Keizo Obuchi. (He’d originally been a faction leader in the LDP himself, then busted that up and went into coalition with the centre/left/communists, then busted that up as well and went into opposition.) One day went to see Obuchi, had what was doubtless a very high-stress encounter with him, and told him he was pulling out of the coalition. At which point Obuchi had a heart attack and fell into a coma, and subsequently died.
Ozawa was quite unpopular for a while after that.
Erm, Blair is still alive, no? Obuchi died in office - or at least fell mortally ill and never regained consciousness.
Japan is politically a very strange country - the previous PM get’s a landslide and then chucks it in? He could have been the most significant reformer since the Meji Restoration.
32. Sorry wrong end of the stick! I thought it was a political killing off.
16 Regarding global warming, check out “The Great Global Warming Swindle”
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-3028847519933351566
Nobody is saying there is no Climate Change. However, it is not proven that it is man made.
The ridiculous Climate Change Concert did indeed help raise awareness to Hypocracy and Vested Interests. What DID happen following the Make Poverty History Concert?
Let’s get rid of Livingstone now!
Boris to win
(Although I think the Mayor position is a waste of time)
31 Any chance the massed ranks of LDP grandees will go down on their knees, kiss his shoes and beg Elvis’s No1 fan to come back
9 “the difficulty in assessing the merit of these poles ”
Pretty good at plumbing and working in coffee shops.
Pretty good fighter pilots too. In the Battle of Britain, 1 in 8 pilots were polish and Poles were the top scoring squadrons.
If Britain and the Polish Air Force had lost the Battle of Britain, the outcome of WW2 may have been different.
If you think Poles can only do plumbing and make coffee, check out this on YouTube…
http://youtube.com/watch?v=di0pkn4Rgo4
As George Washington in the War of Independence, Winston Churchil in 1940 and Ronnie & Maggie in the Cold War knew, in a War, you want the Poles on your side. Like Gurkhas, Poles are friends to have.
35. Lots of acts with flagging careers saw their sales rally a touch.
25 - “Looks like an even-worse-than-expected disaster for the Liberal Democrats” - how used we are to seeing that sort of sentiment on this website. It’s not usually about Japan though.
30 - the idea that Cameron was the reason Charles Kennedy was dumped is very far from the truth. As Tony Blair said “If you knew what I knew…”
38 - there were quite a lot of Czech fighter pilots in the Battle of Britain too. They brought over the tune of “Roll out the barrel” which in the original is “Skoda lasky” (Wasted love).
35. No, it’s not “proven”, just like the Theory of Evolution by Natural Selection isn’t “proven”. There’s just mountains of evidence and the vast majority of the global scientific community saying that it is happening. Still, some people would rather rely on their own gut impulse and a pop-journalism documentary made by a revolutionary communist than actually look at the real science.
40 The point was in answer to the lazy Stereotype of polish plumbers and coffee shop workers.
Czechs were indeed there - but Poles provided 1/8 of all pilots in the Battle of Britain and Scored the highest. Some days, Poles were responsible for 50% of German kils.
And oh yeah, Poles cracked the Enigma machine.
Polish Plumbers indeed. How very ingnorant & ungrateful
It was also the Polish unions who helped unseat the Soviet Empire. How long are our new vistors from eastern Europe going to be satisfied with their working conditions?
41 So what are you saying is happening?
a) There is Global Warming
or
b) Global Warming is caused by human activity
I’m willing to believe in ManBearPig. Ex-Vice President Al Gore told me. Excelsior!
But Human Induced CO2 Global Warming? Nah. Sounds like eco-babble used against Useful Idiots to close the Coal Mines & their Union.
James F. Thank you for your kind comments on the previous thread.
44. I’m saying b). And I was aware and concerned about the issue long before Al Gore started talking about it. As for you mocking people basing their entire views on what one person tells you, you were the one that referenced a documentary which is on record as showing false graphs and editing scientist’s comments to take them out of context.
And yes, of course the tens of thousands of climate scientists world wide are involved in a conspiracy to fabricate evidence to get at Miners unions. You’re the one being utterly ridiculous.
In addition to the problems with the small sample size, with all the other targets that polls have to aim to hit, I’d be surprised if they’re now designed to be typical of each region.
Certainly when I was taking polls for Harris, I resisted attempts to analyse by regions or other sub-groups. Specially designed sample frames are needed for regional (or constituency) polling.
46 Most sources will tell the story in the way they want you to receive it. Ever look at Wiki?
Check both sides of the argument and make your own decision. The Great Global Warming Swindle highlights is a good start.
I may be ridiculous - but I have nothing to gain by it. I have no fat UN pay packet. I get no 5 star junkets to Global Warming Conferences. I get no research grants. I have no hatred of any particular form of transport - except stinky buses which make me nauseous with jolting stop starts & fumes.
The Great Global Warming Swindle makes excellent points about who is harmed by the bandwagon… african women and children who have no electricity and die prematurely of respiratory illness caused by indoor wood stoves.
Check it out…
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-3028847519933351566
47 Hey when’s your Doughty Street Series
40.
Well if you ever want to share the info!!!
I would say though he made the KC removal from office, somewhat faster. I seem to remember that the LD rumblings only really started after Cameron was elected leader and intensified over the period upto christmas.
I doubt it was a strategic plan to grab the headlines after Cameron became leader. Or if it was Oaten, Hughes and their interesting pastimes were a very odd way of attracting support!!!
50 Err KC?
Two possibilities:
Climate change is not caused by human activity, in which case it will continue.
Climate change is caused by human activity, in which case popular disbelief backed by powerful interests will ensure that nothing effective is done, in which case it will continue.
Utter defeat for the Lib Dems:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6920842.stm
(Sorry, couldn’t resist…)
48. I watched much of it when I came out, and I had previously heard many of the arguments made by the deniers previously.
“Most sources will tell the story in the way they want you to receive it.”
This is a favourite tool of the extreme Right in the States. They get their proxies in the media to make claims so outrageous, and then point to the outrageous claims and the mainstream claims and say “well, both views are biased, we need to abide by both”. The clearest example of this is the Creationist lobby doubting evolution. The global warming deniers are doing the same thing.
“I have nothing to gain by it. I have no fat UN pay packet. I get no 5 star junkets to Global Warming Conferences.”
Anti-environmentalists make this implication a lot. They don’t say it outright, but they not-so-subtley hint that all those scientists aren’t to be trusted. The reason you don’t state it outright is because of how ridiculous it sounds. “Tens of thousands of climate scientists are fixing their evidence so they can stay in a nice hotel at conferences.” It’s pure stupidity. Scientists get paid regardless of their findings, as long as they maintain good scientific standards. The way to really get paid a lot though is to get funding from ExxonMobil, who freely admit they only fund scientists that deny global warming.
“The Great Global Warming Swindle makes excellent points about who is harmed by the bandwagon… african women and children who have no electricity and die prematurely of respiratory illness caused by indoor wood stoves.”
Yep, the old trick of pulling the emotional heart strings when your factual case is falling down. Firstly, stoves can always be burnt outside. Secondly, the main drive for limiting carbon is focused on industrialised nations, not rural Africa. I don’t deny that transferring to a mostly carbon-neutral economy will curb economic growth in the short term while the transition is made. But the costs of preventing with climate change far far outweigh the costs of letting it happen.
42 - Bolted Horse has clearly never heard of something called humour. Maybe I should have referred to a different minority instead for it to permeate that particular consciousness.
I’d go with Jerzy Grotowski as Poland’s greatest figure from the last fifty years, but then I would say that.
re 47. Of course this part of a YouGov survey cannot be described as a proper poll of Londoners and I sought to set it into context by listing some of the responses to other questions that the same group came up with. The fact that this sub-group was L45-C35-LD18 on the main general election voting intention makes the Boris 46-Ken 40 split even more extraordinary.
OK It’s not a perfect poll but it does say something.
52. There is a third sub-possibility. That Global Warming is happening, whatever causes it - and it will be good for humanity.
I wrote about it here:
http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/?storyID=4699
Boris has a certain novelty value, but as election day approaches, many voters who now say they will vote for him will develop cold feet. There is a message for Gordo from Japan, don’t hang around before calling a GE!
54. tjm, you’re nuts.
55. ukpaul, I’ve heard of humour and that wasn’t it. The current stereotype of Poles is easy. Just like an “Alternative” Comedian’s mantra “Maggie Thatcher, Tories, Bum!”.
Please don’t propagate it. There are dumb people out there who will pick up and run with it. The truth of Poles is far more interesting.
59 ‘Dumb people’ don’t do jokes, just spittle-flecked invective. They’re too busy making claims about people ‘taking our jobs’, jobs that are only available because they didn’t deign to take those jobs in the first place.
The person we want in a discussion on global warming is Viscount Christopher Monckton - the Tory peer and ex-Thatcher aide who took adverts in the US press challenging Gore to a debate. Alas I would think that he would regard PBC as somewhat beneath him as a forum to set out his case. He does not seem the sort of person who spends his life on sites like this.
Sean. The Great Global Warming Swindle does not say Global Warming isnt Happening. It says, it is a natural phenomenonunenam.
The world has been warmer. Vines grew in England. Vikings farmed in Greenland.
Ecology is all very well. We like trees. We dont like asthma.
But the doom mongers are behaving like stone age savages barking at a Solar Eclipse. Climate change is natural.
58 The chap had been there 9 months hardly a lifetime I would say
61. His challenge to Gore was written in idiotic language of the first degree. He is a popinjay.
54 “Firstly, stoves can always be burnt outside. ”
Perhaps they should use outside toilets too? Perhaps they cook inside for a reason?
Personally I wouldnt like to cook supper for my family outside, especially in the rain.
Typical Hippy Romantised Poverty. How very qaint. How very patronising.
This thread makes we realise just how scary a choice between Ken and Boris would be. My guess is that Boris would be too easy to campaign against, but just a hunch.
62 - are you saying that the rise in atmospheric CO2 is not due to human activity? Or that despite all we know - cold, hard facts - about the radiative properties of CO2, it is not capable of affecting the climate?
Interesting piece by Iain Dale on how David Davis is filling the Willie Whitelaw/John Prescott role for Cameron
61 - If you want someone credible on the “skeptical” side of this debate, Bjorn Lomborg (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bj%C3%B8rn_Lomborg) would be a much better option than Monckton. He gets invited to give seminars to proper science students, which I certainly hope wouldn’t happen in Monckton’s case. That’s not to say Lomborg’s credibility is not to be questioned, but he makes arguments that are at least worth considering. He doesn’t argue against the truth of anthropogenic climate change, just against the worth of spending money tackling it.
67. Both.
Historically, rises in CO2 levels follow rises in temperature. So, you could imply temperature rise causes a rise in CO2. Secondly, human CO2 levels are tiny compared with Volcanos.
CO2 is natural and current levels are low compared to historical levels.
Watch The Global Warmin Swindle and see if it can consolidate or challenge any of the theories you already have.
The mophead beats the slaphead.
That’s Cameron doomed then. His mane chance is disappearing day by day
70 - a quick google brought this:
http://volcano.und.edu/vwdocs/frequent_questions/grp6/question1375.html
Annual CO2 from volcanos: 500 gigatons
Annual CO2 from human use of land and fossil fuels: 17,600 gigatons
“Tiny”?!?!
Sorry - should have been megatons, not gigatons. The ratio, of course, is the same.
70. That’s poor science as yes CO2 from eruptions is caused but also sulpheric aeorsols and particle suspensions in the upper levels of the atmosphere caused by volcanic ejections that cause the sun to lose it’s potency. If you look in the geology books or even on web rexources you will see a correlation of cold peroids caused by the aerosols deflecting sun light in it’s most simple terms.
There has been an absence of Major eruption for a long time and the rise in CO2 can be imperically related to the consumption of fossil fuels. What do you think happens when you burn Carbon rich energy sources that have been locked away for millions of years?
As it is a chemical process in effect there must be some bi-product. I would hazzard a guess that the smoke has CO2 and some other carbon compounds in it!!!
It is indesputible that CO2 increases in the atmosphere is “man’s” legacy from the use of stored carbon rich fuels. WHat is disputed by the “nut” lobby is that CO2 is a contributery factor in global warming. There are of course more potent aresols and gases that can ensure that we have hell on earth. The problem though is i think inertia is against us and the big “emmision states” and the big rising emision states will not be persuaded due to economic factors.
69: Bjorn Lomborg is a poltics professor, not a scientist.
#16
also jet stream, not gulf stream.
74. I did Geology at A-level and we had to look at all this stuff. I hated the subject and the teacher had breath straight from satan’s bottom and it made me feel sick. You could smell the breath from 10 feet away!!!
Seeing as Mike is going to reveal who his labour sources fear in the tories at some point I’ll take my stabs now - Alan Duncan or Chris Grayling. The former because he negates a lot of the ‘old conservatism’ and the latter because he of his record in exposing government failings. The first one is a formidable media performer but the latter isn’t, as such I’ll go for the former.
I’m sure Andrea would be pleased! I awake Mike’s revelation with interest….
Can someone explain why you can still bet on a walkout on Big Brother 8 between 23rd and 29th July when Chanelle has walked out today?
Is this free money?
59. So you resort to single epithets when you can’t back up your arguments?
62. Yes, climate change can be natural. No scientist investigating global warming has ever claimed otherwise. But what’s happening now is a rise in global temperatures far beyond natural climate oscillation. The denier crowd likes to use smoke and mirrors to deflect attention from the real facts. Its like saying fires happen naturally so arson can’t happen! There’s also no plausible natural explanation for what’s happening. Claims from your loopy documentary that its down to solar output have been shown to be entirely without merit by hard scientific studies.
And we’re not barking at the eclipse. We’re relying on the scientific method and peer review. Not eccentric aristocrats or loony communists. You keep on referring back to the same damn documentary!
65. Don’t be so bloody pedantic. Clearly I meant stoves built partially on the outside so that fumes can escape. Besides, there are other fuels available such as ethanol. (Yes, I know it releases carbon, but environmentalists have been fighting to stop rural peasants from doing their minuscule bit of pollution. We’re more worried about big industry, road and air traffic.)
70. Well actually temperature and CO2 rises both follow each other. Thats why a change in temperature due to the Milankovitch cycles actually would cause far greater warming than can be explained by the cycle alone. The initial bulk of temperature released more carbon, which increased the temperature further. What’s your point?
“CO2 is natural and current levels are low compared to historical levels.”
When precisely do you mean by “historical”?
80 - as for that documentary and its maker:
Subsequent television documentaries by Durkin aired as Equinox programs which include a 1998 documentary entitled “Storm in a D-Cup” which argued that silicone breast implants were in fact beneficial to a woman’s health…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_Durkin_%28television_director%29
Anyone reminded of this?
http://www.theonion.com/content/node/31222
78. Alan Duncan or Chris Grayling - I think this two Tories are great. The Tories have some great Shadow Cabinet that Complement Cameron as leader. There is Hague, Osborne, Davis, Fox, Duncan andGrayling for starters. I think they are all more subtantial figures than the people they shadow. Not just in terms of Gravatas but also there impact on the political dialect. I would also say that Cameron is more substantial than Brown, this is because Brown has had to adopt Cameron’s agenda and not vice - versa. If any one has been flip - flopping it is Brown. Look at him on Iraq, drug’s, casino’s, environmental agency budgets, taxes, education the lot. It smacks of Brown having to move as a strategic move against Cameron, not because it is always in the national interest.
Again on the assertion that Cameron is alleged to be light on policy i would say that Brown has so far only announced changes in aspiration .i.e he does not have the policy to implement and Cameron does not have the levers of government. He cannot change anything.
When Brown was Shadow Chancellour it was said that Brown did not have any policies and he was an insubstantial figure - shows he has been consistant in one thing. No Labour figure has ever to my knowledge said where Labour is really going - what it want’s to do? All we get is nasty wicked tories!!!!
78. Alan Duncan or Chris Grayling - I think this two Tories are great. The Tories have some great Shadow Cabinet that Complement Cameron as leader. There is Hague, Osborne, Davis, Fox, Duncan andGrayling for starters. I think they are all more subtantial figures than the people they shadow.
Not just in terms of Gravatas but also there impact on the political dialect. I would also say that Cameron is more substantial than Brown, this is because Brown has had to adopt Cameron’s agenda and not vice - versa. If any one has been flip - flopping it is Brown. Look at him on Iraq, drug’s, casino’s, environmental agency budgets, taxes, education the lot. It smacks of Brown having to move as a strategic move against Cameron, not because it is always in the national interest.
Again on the assertion that Cameron is alleged to be light on policy i would say that Brown has so far only announced changes in aspiration .i.e he does not have the policy to implement and Cameron does not have the levers of government. He cannot change anything.
When Brown was Shadow Chancellour it was said that Brown did not have any policies and he was an insubstantial figure - shows he has been consistant in one thing. No Labour figure has ever to my knowledge said where Labour is really going - what it want’s to do? All we get is nasty wicked tories!!!!
80 should have read “have environmentalists been fighting to stop rural peasants from doing their minuscule bit of pollution?”
81. Climate deniers new “theories” often remind me of this story:
http://www.theonion.com/content/news/new_theories_suggest_kennedy_wasnt
80 Does the documentary irritate you. seeing both sides helps puts things into perspective. Anyone who wants to investigae what’s happening should check out both sides.
81 Wiki is wiki. Anyone can change Wiki article to say the opposite. That aside, anyone can be wrong on one subject and right on another. Again, that aside, seeing both sides helps puts things into perspective
The more I engage with you guys, the more I feel like it is a discussion with religious fundamentalists.
Do not cover your eyes and block your ears to alternative views.
If your faith is based on truth, it can survive anything - even debate.
Wiki is wiki. Anyone can change Wiki article to say the opposite.
I quoted it on an issue of fact. Are you saying he didn’t produce that documentary?
All you have produced so far is errors/lies that are trivially easy to refute. “human CO2 levels are tiny compared with Volcanos” indeed! (A claim you’ve still not withdrawn by the way.)
86. For God sake,
I’ve seen the bloody documentary and its nonsense. Like I said, I’ve seen the claims of deniers for years, and theyre unmerited. I just dismissed several of yours in my last post with genuine science - which you did not respond to. How is that “covering my eyes and blocking my ears.” Equally I reject pretty quickly the people that say the Earth will rise by ten degrees in the next century. The truth is that it will rise about 3 or 4, unless we decrease carbon output.
And if you’re so fond of debate, answer my questions, if you can.
85. How can one deny the climate? although after the last few weeks I can see how one might wish to…
82/83.
“All we get is nasty wicked tories!!!!
28 years of them non-stop!
75 - What’s you point? Monckton is a journalist, not a scientist, so that didn’t seem to be pre-requisite (in fact, a politics proffesor may be better suited to this site). The difference is that scientists do consider Lomborg’s ideas worthy of argument. I know. I am one, and he has been invited to my previous University (unfortunately while I was away). I strongly disagree with Lomborg. He can be dishonest, and certainly isn’t too worried about rigour in his arguments, but they cannot be dismissed without proper scrutiny, which is more than can be said for the likes of Monckton.
***********************BREAKING NEWS CONCERNING THE SLEEPING ARRANGEMENTS OF THE HONOURABLE MEMBER FOR MONTGOMERYSHIRE*******************
http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/showbiz/a68390/both-cheeky-girls-move-in-with-opik.html
92. Hilarious! We all know what’s going on beneath closed doors!
92 Just the coverage Lembit needed. Poor chap had been trying hard with some success to do some serious politics again. If he gets this sort of coverage from now until polling day his majority will take a bit of a knock
92.
Thanks to my News of the World, I can see now how Lembit can split them apart. Both of their boob jobs went wrong but Gabby’s left tit is all cock-eyed with the nipple veering off to the left, just like Lembit’s chin.
http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/story_pages/showbiz/showbiz4.shtml
With coverage like this Opik could be a serious contender for Mayor of London.
94.
“his majority will take a bit of a knock”
When such references are made to the twins is this known as ‘knocking copy’ and does it ’stand up’?
sample is small, but from my elementary statistics, appears to be 90%+ certainty Boris is at least in the lead. And that’s pretty good for him at this stage.
98 - only assuming no systematic error in sample or construction of the poll.
96 Nah, it’s Dyke or nothing for the Lib Dems
100. Surely no Lib Dem would be to Boris’ advantage. Lib Dems might find him buffoonish and aristocratic, but they’d prefer his liberal tendencies than a socialist like Ken.
92 - after the next election Lembit will have more time to stay at home with the cheeky girl(s)!!!!
101 Well yes. But the key would be if Boris or the Lib Dem man got through to the 2nd round to face Ken. To my mind only Dyke has a prayer
102 Back on planet earth Ave it. Lembit starts with a 7,000 majority in a seat that has gone Blue once in more than a century. Glyn Davies is a superb candidate, but it’s a massive ask. I think he’ll put up a good showing no matter what though
103 - Glyn Davies will do well and will be the 2nd Tory to win there since 1865!
89 Ketley - you don’t do the weather on the Beeb by any chance do you?
88 “And if you’re so fond of debate, answer my questions, if you can.”
Nah. You have too much energy for me.
Even if I could reach you, it would most likely be a debate of attrition followed by a Pyrrhic victory.
You win. Global warming is caused by humans. Nobody should watch The Great Global Warming Swindle. However, before I go off for my cup of cocoa, here is a review from The Independent sasying “Even if you don’t buy that, you should definitely watch the programme”. Perhaps only for entertainment.
There was a great picture of Ken in the London Paper the other day. Sitting on the tube reading one of Boris’ biographies!
Many may see his candicacy as a joke, but you can bet your life that Ken is not one of those.
[104] A wonderful character, Ave It, lives in a fen just outside Lincoln (I was brought up there, I know whereof I speak :lol:) yet is an expert on both metropolitan and Welsh politics. This site needs more like that… not.
Nick Ferria if he were a serious candiate could be an intresting propsect. I dont think he’s as bad or idiotic as people have made out on this blog but if I were Londoner I would bulk at the idea of Boris or Ferria . He’s a lot like Boris in that he has a huge profile but doubts over his experince for the job. Both will need serious people in their camps to give them serious positions on the issues facing London or they will be meat for Livingston.
Can Ferria act as Nadar type candiate and split the Tory vote? As a disc jockery it is hard surely to judge his voter appeal.
109 - If Boris has any sense he will get in some top political strategist from America. Who ran Arnie’s campaign?
I thought Mike Read was the Disc Jockey? Nick Ferrari is a talk show host.
111 Seems as though St Grimond may have been at the spirits.
106. I never said people shouldn’t watch it. I was just arguing that it was bad journalism.
46: “tens of thousands of climate scientists world wide ”
Just think about that for a second. You reckon those turkeys would vote for Christmas?! They’d all be on the dole if it all turned out to be natural variation, or the sun, or something else…
Global warming seems to be happening, and it could be down to us. But the vested interests in ‘proving’ it are now fiercely strong. Same with CJD researchers, and their spectacularly wrong predictions of tens of thousands of deaths from ‘Mad cow disease’. With every year that passed with about 3 or 4 more cases instead of thousands, the mantra was always ‘more research is needed’ whereas in fact, mass redundancies in pseudo-science labs were needed. I have a PhD and have had about 10 papers published myself, none of which are any good frankly. I know the game, and I am highly cynical about most research scientists, particularly in cohorts of “tens of thousands”. Most of them are only after the next pay cheque (for which read research grant) like the rest of us. If the dosh is being handed out for “global warming research” (cart/horse anyone?) then lo and behold that’s what they will find. I do not accept (at post 54) that scientists will get paid whatever they find - once maybe, but no more than that.
We’ll see.
108 - LOL loving you now!
Your knowledge says you live in a ditch by one of those flat roads in Lincs!
Tuck into it!
PS do you know Amy new BB Halfway Housemate from Lincs???
O/T Our own Nick Palmer is a known supporter of ID cards. Replying to Michael Portillo’s column in the Times today, he gives us one of his reasons:
“The Madrid bombers were caught because Spanish law requires ID cards (and requires that they be used to buy mobile phones, which were found in the wreckage). Obviously ID cards don’t prevent people from committing acts of terrorism. But they prevent use of multiple identities (because the biometric data is tested for duplication with existing data), a favourite terrorist tactic.
Naturally there are arguments against as well, and people have to weigh up the pros and cons. But it trivialises the argument to say that there are no advantages.
Nick Palmer MP, Nottingham, England”
Yes Nick, but it didn’t stop the attack though, did it?
114 - I’m not a climate scientist so not qualified to comment on the science of Global warming. But despite that my impression is that there is far more evidence of vested interests in the “denial” club these days. Ultimately the “Global Warming caused by Greenhouse Gases theory” may not be correct, but it is by far the best and most convincing theory that exists.
Opponents on the other hand jump from one theory to another, the only commonality being that they are determined to say that the prevailing consensus is wrong. First they denied that Global Warming (whatever the cause was actually happening) - the favorite argument was to deploy the “new ice age” theory. But the evidence of Global Warming and the melting of the ice caps became overwhelming so they switched to denying that it would have a significant effect to justify taking mitigating action. But that has now become totally untenable, so they are finally forced to scratch around for alternative theories. None of them have proved scientifically robust, but nevertheless several have the the advantage of simplicity - “the earth is warming, well it’s all the sun’s fault, derrrr!” - and is very easy to sell to a non-scientifically qualified audience.
116 - I didn’t know the Spanish had biometric ID cards.
Me? I’ve always believed in Climate Change.
Anyways, this from the Independent…
see the head of the International Arctic Research Centre, Syun-Ichi Akasofu, describe how “the Arctic has always been expanding and contracting … the press come here all the time and ask us: will you say something about the Greenhouse disaster? And I say: there is none.”
Then Dr Akasofu emits a tiny laugh - the laugh of a true scientist at the idiocy and hysteria of the world’s media and politicians
http://comment.independent.co.uk/columnists_a_l/dominic_lawson/article2318675.ece
116 - I’d like to pick up on something here:
“The Madrid bombers were caught because Spanish law requires ID cards (and requires that they be used to buy mobile phones, which were found in the wreckage).
Nick, if you’re reading, is the ID card scheme going to impose this kind of obligation on businesses such as mobile phone operators to use the data, over and above existing legislation such as the anti-money-laundering provisions?
119 - ah, so here is A Man Named Busted Flush’s style of “debate”: ignore questions and rebuttals and keep on spamming.
Evening all
I know it’s ancient history now but I’ve posted a few thoughts on the recent by-elections:
http://aloadofoldstodge.blogspot.com/2007/07/elections-and-reflections.html
JOIN BORIS!
He has to use that address for his campaign webpage.
120 BV - NickP is on hols for the week, I believe.
122 Stodge
I love the way you always introduce yourself with ‘Evening all’
It’s so cheery.
You won’t change it, will you?
121 Syun-Ichi Akasofu thinks you are hilarious.
The times are full of omens. Only today I saw a horse with 2 heads and 2 bodies!
Remember, when the Sun is eaten by an intergalatic goat - its just an eclipse and will pass.
You guys are funnier than the Witchsmeller Pursuivant episode of Black Adder
111. Alex. Mike Reid, the actor, comedian and I think, putative London mayor candidate has died.
RIP.
127. Gone up the apples and pears to Bedfordshire for good.
127 - Nope. Mike Reid, actor and comedian has died. Mike Read, disc jockey, pulled out of the mayoral race a couple of weeks ago.
129 - quite. Someone’s screwed up Wikipedia though. That’ll look good on the edit history. “(minor edit): not, actually, dead.”
130 - Just had a look at Mike Reid’s page.
“Two weeks before he died, he had received a full medical examination and had been given a clean bill of health.”
Which country’s health system is going to own up to that one then?
interesting results though from a small sample. Much more interesting is the fact that the sample in London seems to contain more Labour supporters than it should.
Interesting!
130 Like the Mark Twain story. IIRC he heard that his own obituary had been published, and cabled “The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated”
Re 60, UKPaul, “59 ‘Dumb people’ don’t do jokes, just spittle-flecked invective. They’re too busy making claims about people ‘taking our jobs’, jobs that are only available because they didn’t deign to take those jobs in the first place.”
At the wages offered.
Benedict.
I understand what you’re driving at but the trouble is there’s no attempt to balance the poll regionally so you’ll find oddities like that. I’m sure there are too many Tories in the North East or whatever. That’s why Regional breakdowns of polls are pretty valueless; it doesn’t mean the poll doesn’t contain a nationally valid sample which is all that ICM set out to do. At least that’s how I understand it.
Just watching BBC News:
How symbolic a move was this in terms of the Bush / Brown relationship.
Bush takes Brown to a gulfing buggy, gets Brown to sit in the passenger seat whilst Bush drives. I think this is significant in that Brown has being trying to differentiate himself from Bush.
My view was this was symbolic: Bush is driving behind the wheel and Brown is the passenger!!!
114. Actually, once the case is done and dusted there ceases to be a need for more research in the area. It’s when counter claims and uncertainty exists that more research is needed to counteract and clarify. If everyone accepted climate change, why would we need more research into it?
And incidentally, the Bush administration leaned on scientists to tone down talk of climate change, yet US scientists continued to argue that it was happening. So the argument that its just governments leading scientists on with pay packets doesn’t add up.
Re 127, Stjohn, “Alex. Mike Reid, the actor, comedian and I think, putative London mayor candidate has died.”
No,. at least the last part, no the mayoral candidate is the DJ Mike Reid not the actor/comedian.
Still sad that he has died mind.
136. My view was this was symbolic: Bush is driving behind the wheel and Brown is the passenger!!!
What i mean by this is Bush is in control; he says what goes. Classic “i’m the boss” stuff - v. Funny but not for Brown.
Got a feeling that picture will be used again and again.
Re 135, Blue Moon , noted, but it could well be interesting could it not? (Boris running that is)
Benedict I think Boris will at the very least give Livingstone a damn good run for his money. He needs to fight a disciplined campaign without losing his humour and charm. Not impossible and it’s his last chance in serious politics. I hope to hell he takes it.
Re 141, Blue moon, me too
139 - why did Bush drive round in a big circle before heading off the same way he was already pointing anyway? Showing off? Forgotten the way? Trying to make Brown sick, or fall out? You can see GB hanging on tightly as Bush turns it tightly at speed.
How funny would have been if they’d got in and Bush had put it into reverse instead…?
As for Boris - that a poll has him 6 points ahead teaches us a lesson about polls doesn’t it? A joke candidate; I hope the voters in the London primary have the sense to pick one of the other three as Tory candidate. Coming third in Southall is one thing; finishing third in the London mayoralty would be blow to the Tory cause, but that’s where Boris will finish.
I’ve no doubt Labour and LibDems in London are looking forward to casting their votes in the primary.
Mike, you will do that article on who Labour most fears won’t you?
49, Punter, as I have said before, I have no idea what Iain Dale is doing with the regional constituency programmes.
56, Mike, yes, the comparison with the London party votes does have some interest (though the sample is still small). However, I believe it is true that Boris Johnson has been in the news more than Ken Livingstone recently, whereas Labour (and Brown) have held more of the national limelight than the Conservatives. These things do affect poll figures, especially at this time of the year. In due course I would expect both of these imbalances to change.
The only meaningful question should have been “Which … will you vote for in the second round?” , not “Which … do you prefer?”.
Punter way back at 31:
No sign of a Koizumi come-back at this point - more likely someone like Aso. Though I could imagine that if the LDP haven’t recovered their position in the polls by the next general election, they’d bring him back just before the election, leave him in charge for a few months afterwards then switch him out for another old party duffer. You wouldn’t think the Japanese people would keep falling for an obvious bait-and-switch like that, but they do…
BTW, before the election there was some talk in the press that traditional LDP supporters in rural areas were failing to back the LDP this time, and in some cases even switching to Minshuto. This is Koizumi’s doing - he went to war with the party’s core, so that he could get a bunch of independents voters in return.
Abe’s inherited the reduced core vote - and then failed to reach out to the independents.
So what does the LDP do now? The problem is that the trick Koizumi pulled is going to be very hard to repeat. First, it relied on contrasting Koizumi with the DPJ’s uncharismatic, untelegenic leader (Hatoyama) - which won’t necessarily be true next time, if Ozawa can restrain himself from throwing his toys out of the pram. Second, you’d think there would be a limit to how long you can govern as an “insurgent” in a party that’s been in charge for most of the last 50 years; Pulling it off once was quite an achievement (”Support Koizumi’s war against the LDP dinosaurs by voting for your local LDP candidate, Dino Dinosaur…”) and it’s not obvious that people will fall for it again.
Anyhow, even though they won their last landslide dynamic, reformist leader, shoring up the core vote could now actually be the LDP’s best move…
Mike
I notice that over half the Lib Dems surveyed in the YouGov poll believe that their chances of winning the next election would be improved if Ming were replaced with a newer younger leader. Given that the rumblings over his leadership style and lack of substance, te subject of a fascinating debate on Radio 4 last night, won’t go away, and given your insistence that the mere suggestion by two [idiot] Tory MPs of disloyalty should force DC to resign and stand in a leadership contest, will you now be calling for Ming to resign and show some real leadership?
After all, he has successfully dropped 10% in the polls, as well as allowing people to seriously question what the Lib Dems are for. He has presided over two Local Election campaigns that have correctly been characterised as disasters for the Liberal Democrats. I cannot imagine why he has not been challenged, or dumped as unceremoniously as Charlie Kennedy was.
138.
“the mayoral candidate is the DJ Mike Reid”
who has propably about as much idea about how to run things in London as the his recently-deceased namesake has.