It’s a staggering 13 Daves with ComRes
November 26th, 2007
Labour drop to an amazing 27%
On the day that Labour’s general secretary had to resign over donation handling news is coming through of another terrible polling blow to Brown and his party.
According to Iain Dale the November survey by ComRes for tomorrow’s Independent has these figures with comparisons on a month ago - CON 40% (-1): LAB 27% (-6): LD 18% (+2)
Needless to say this is the biggest Tory lead that’s been recorded by ComRes ever. Back in April the firm had Labour on a similar level of 27% but in that poll the Tories were only on 36%.
It should be noted that the methodology that the firm uses, particularly the past vote weighting formula that it follows, is the least favourable to Labour of all the pollsters.
Fieldwork took place over the weekend after an awful week of bad news for the party which has continued today.
The Anthony Wells calculator suggests that these figures would produce a Commons of CON 354: LAB 224: LD 42: OTH 30 seats. Martin Baxter Electoral Calculus produces CON 357: LAB 217: LD 45 seats
I’ve started betting on the Tories again on the commons spread markets.
UPDATE 2115 I have just had confirmation of the poll from the boss of ComRes - Andrew Hawkins. He tells me that the last survey which showed such a big Tory lead was a MORI poll for The Times in August 1988, when Margaret Thatcher was still Prime Minister and her party enjoyed a 14-point advantage..
Mike Smithson
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Just look at all those lovely Daves!
*suffers minor palpitations*
and the poll taken before today’s events.
I wonder what the next polls will be like. This is beginning to look like a vicious cycle for Labour.
Funny how planning permission was given despite the road traffic levels..
http://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/business/news/display.var.975892.0.plans_for_more_than_6_000_jobs_to_be_created_in_region.php
” project is one of the first to get past a block by the Highways Agency of any further development on the A1.
Because the A1 is over-capacity, the Highways Agency has been using its powers to stall developments, particularly in the north of the region”
“Back in April the firm had Labour on a similar level of 27% but in that poll the Tories were only on 36%.”
And Back in April, the likeable Labour supporter RedFlump posted the following:
“As an ardent Brown supporter I must say that the polls don’t look good. However I honestly believe (and shoot me down if you want to!) that Gordon has what it takes to regain our support in the country. I know the polls say different at the moment, but I have the faith brothers and sisters. I have the faith!!! ”
(April 27th, 2007 at 7:47 am)
It isn’t over yet by a long chalk, but I wonder if Brownites still have that burning faith?
2 - You mean the defection of a LibDem MEP to Cameron’s Conservatives? That’s bound to be worth a few points in the polls!
A word of warning for Labour as well, what we might be getting now, is not the disasters of the last ten days, but the disasters of the month before that, it can take quite a lag for big issues to filter through to polling results…..
I presume the PB.com server fainted this evening at the thought of having to carry all those smiling Dave photos.
Still there must be some good news for Gordon eventually. Afterall, “It’s the economy, stupid!” Shame the City is predicting that average house prices will fall 7% next year: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/11a2548c-9ba6-11dc-8aad-0000779fd2ac.html
5. Let’s hope the press cover that.
Also the obvious lie that only Watt knew about these donations - which started before he was Gen Sec.
Jack Straw, unless I’m much mistaken, just tried to knife Brown - “no member of the Cabinet *as far as I’m aware* knew” ie he’s setting them up if they knew
Peter the Punter, obviously you may want to wait to see the Independant article, but I feel its likely the noisy summer liquor fund may soon be recieving a £20 boost!
But as to the poll. Lab’s share looks like a statistical outlier to me. Love to believe it but don’t. LD and Tory seem reasonable, not this one. I think Lab are probably 31% or so
‘The reason, so far as I can judge, is that people are not personally very worried by Northern Rock, and while they *are* personally concerned about the HMRC data loss, they’re on the whole not inclined to blame GB for it.’
No prizes for guessing who was spinning the above just 24 hours ago,obviously time for a serious reality check.
According to electoral calculus that gives the Tories a 64 majority.
And a uniform swing would see Darling, Kelly, Hutton, Smith and Palmer all lose their seats (though a strong personal vote may count in the latter’s case).
4 The two hapless employees who will now owe 40% income tax on their massive amounts of unearned income are it seems Directors of this man’s property company (though that’s from Guido so might not be 100%). Surely a rampant press pack aren’t going to drop this. On Gordon’s latest bungled relaunch day as well.
Labour / Cash / North East property deals - it’s almost like Get Carter!!
my old dad always said ‘yer tories do sex scandals but it’s yer Labour lot wot always ave their and in the till’ (my father speaks in an excellent parody of Dick van Dyke Cockney - somewhat grating but he can’t help it)
4
Was the planning permission given before or after the donation?
13. I don’t think cats can vote yet, unless they do it by post.
13 - and what of Huhne and Clegg?
How will the teddy bear story play out
11
olls are volatile.
In Stock Markets , volatility means a big change in direction and the swings are due to people still believing past trends still continue. Then when they are convinced of the new trend, volatility drops and the new trend continues strongly.
Gordon went up, then volatility then down , more volatility…
As Gordon’s peak Labour votw was around 40% (correct me please), it is likely the final number will be 50% of the peak.. so 20%…give or take 1-3%.
15
Both
13 Daves is the full Reverse Roger - with extra Ankle Grasp…
Talking of surveys, Yougov have commenced theirs on the LibDem leadership race. It closes on 10am on Friday so I assume we should know something later that evening.
The high 15% for Others in this poll cannot solely be caused by an increased SNP support . If the SNP were at 50% in Scotland that would only contribute circa 4% to a UK wide poll .
14 - if they’re smart they’ll ask for their money back, and make a wapping profit!
9. Straw pointed out on AM yesterday that Northern Rock and HMRC are not comparable to Black Wednesday, although when asked specifics about the crisis he was clear to point out ‘I’ve not been personally involved in dealing with it’.
I wonder if he regrets not putting his name forward in May?
22 Yes but I took part in a different Yougov LibDem leadership poll last Thursday as well as the new one . I have a feeling but no evidence that that was a private poll for one of the candidates .
14
I just hope that the taxpayer doesn’t end up having to fund the parties just because they can’t get their act together.
25 - he sounds like he’s enjoying it! Someone suggested yesterday that Hutton was all over the airways as a sort of “loyalty test” to Gordon.
There is of course an alternative - that the jockeying for a post Gordon leadership contest is already in full swing!
26. I think that was the SKY poll due out on 2nd December. Not that this post will ever appear due to censorship.
I’ll leave pb.com to the Tories, after all, its just Tories here now.
18
‘How will the teddy bear story play out’
I only heard the tale end of the story,something about a teacher allowing her class to call a teddy bear Mohammed and she has been arrested and jailed?
23. I just checked the Comres figures for last month. Labour only polled 25% of the Scottish sample (very small) so doesn’t really explain it.
PC Greens & BNP also benefitting perhaps?
28 - In the run up to Gordon’s coronation it was clear that there were elements in the cabinet who were desperate to knife him, but knew it was a pointless exercise if they couldn’t find an alternative candidate.
Well they’re well and truly getting there chance now! And of course the failure of Labour’s problems to shift the Conservative score upwards will only encourage those who think there’s value in getting rid of him.
14. If, as seems to be the case, the cash merely passed through these two on its way to the Labour party, it was never theirs to spend and therefore there is no tax liability. But otherwise you are right - another relaunch killed by events with the funding row topping the news. And the press aren’t going to let this one drop easily.
28. your prediction of a 10+% Tory lead finally happened (just 1 month after when it was supposed to happen), Alex..happy?
29 - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/7112929.stm
27.
Because Yes, across the whole of Europe, it has shown that state funding of political parties has ended corruption…………
33 - It wasn’t a prediction, Andrea. It was a mooted possibility.
What I find interesting with this poll, is that support for the Tories has actually FALLEN, albeit slightly. So, though they can be cheered by being so far ahead of Labour (fair enough - I would be cheering too, in their place) the jubilation does need to be moderated just a bit, doesn’t it?
And it is not so bad for the Liberal Democrats either - only 9% points behind Labour.
Roger?
Roger?
Where are ya?
I thought he’d be one of the first to put his head above the parapet and gloat at the Tories slipping back one point….!
It seems that it is left to Guido Fawkes to “name and shame” in the latest episode of Nulabour sleaze.
Perhaps Douglas Alexander will be next Minister to go !
When will “The Bottler” call a General Election?
Brown must be really “happy”, after giving a speech that he expected to capture the headlines, Peter Watt resigned, and now, he has this “lovely” poll!
37 - see second part of 31. And of course there was that poll the other day showing Labour neck and neck with Blair.
I do think that the obvious continuing Conservative vulnerability has to encourage any inter Labour thoughts of moving against Gordon (if there are any, of course).
Has any Government ever needed a relaunch after only four/five months???
Can i just ask, because i don’t know and it does seem slightly surprising. Are there any technical reasons why a slump in Labour support could adversely impact on the Tory share, without them actually losing support? Say if there was a dramatic drop in the numbers claiming to have voted Labour at the last election?
32 Abrahams is already on record as saying the money was given to them to do with as they wished and they wished to donate it to Labour!!
I’m not sure which page of the tax code would allow a company to freely make gifts to employees that must be applied to a certain purpose and be free of income tax and National Insurance but I am not a tax accountant - would like to understand the details of how that works as it sounds useful for my IT contractor friends.
24
:-) And of course as it was a gift it does belong to them.
Can I just say that at this stage in the mid-term of the parliament that the tories should be polling 80% as Labour did in the days when we were beating the scandal hit Major Govt. Anything less is a travesty of reality. zzzzzzzzzzzz
Dave Spart is 88 yrs old.
BBC News website ticker says “£200k more given to Labour by Abrahams than first thought - more soon”.
They don’t even know how much is flowing in and from whom.
What a shower, what a shambles!
Another £200k has just been found donated by a Mr John McCartney.
No one knew what was going on and it must never happen again. No not the Nuremberg War Trials but our Government.
If it wasn’t so sad you would cry. Me? I am just laughing at the thought of Gordon filling his nappy at the thought of tomorrows Press Briefing.
Who are ComRes anyway? I have seen a couple of their polls in the Independent, which all seem to give bigger Tory leads than anyone else, and the numbers bounce around a lot. Before then I had never heard of them. ICM is always the guide for me - I think they got it massively wrong in ‘92 and, as a result, since then they have been consistently more accurate then everyone else.
27 yes State funding must be resisted by all democrats - it’s one area where I profoundly disagree with Conservative policy - we should be good anough to get people to give us money and be proud to do so.
36. Alex, if so, sorry, I must have got confused by your use of the predicting term at the time (”To be fair Andrea, I’m predicting it as a response to short term events”)
Alex 43. Normally ComRes published the detailed data overnight so we should be able to determine the detail tomorrow.
Enjoying the BBC programme on the Monarchy at the moment. Shocking that anyone felt they needed to sensationalise it to get people to watch it.
Never mind - it won’t bother Gordo too much. As he said only the other day in Africa ‘I don’t look at the polls!’
Central probabilistic forecast
Con 340
Lab 213
LD 48
Nats 26
Oth 5
NI 18
The SNP has passed the tipping point in Scotland and Labour seats start to fall like ninepins. Greens probably win Brighton Pavilion and Galloway Poplar.
What fun! Remember it’s only a poll….
As Jonathan perceptively remarked earlier, “It’s one political earthquake after another today”.
Peter Watts claimed he did know the law.
Read this…
http://www.libdemvoice.org/exclusive-labours-dodgy-donation-and-the-incriminating-email-1698.html
Note the date.
50 - lol. Did you search for that or do you store memorable posts for later…?
Has anyone actually confirmed this apart from Ian Dale, or is this just an ‘Unsubstantiated rumour’?
53 - I am watching too. It is good.
straw put in a disgraceful performance on channel 4 news tonight. i think its time to realise that its not solely a problem with Brown its that the entire project has finally been exposed. people are sick to death of corruption and lies and with a whole raft of unpopular policies can anyone be surprised the labour vote is sinking like a stone.
27%.. Oh my god.. Ave it 07 is a prophet…
The Tories are finally in a winning position according to this poll.
They just need to hold this lead for the next 2.5 years and they’re home and dry.
Any slippage and we’re back to a likely noc.
Sorry 57
Should read .. did NOT know the law
62. Ave It is one of the most sensible Tories here
58. Alex, do you think I may have had stored that quote to use it later if the 10% would have not happened?
I’m not that Machiavellian (?)
57) Just seen that as well, getting murkier by the minute!
62 Anyone backing Ave It 07 over the past couple of months could now retire…how scary is that?!?!?
Well I for one can’t believe how fast events appear to be moving! The polls with the relatively consistent Tory 40% shares make me more convinced of my gut feeling that however bad things get (and I think they will get VERY BAD) for Labour until May 2010, that the Tories are going to find it mighty difficult to get above 40% and that 38/39% is realistic.
The implication of all this is that Lib Dem vote share could hold up in the low 20’s if the Tory share isn’t going to budge above 40%.
63. Gabble, you should be more worried about slipping into third place. What’s the point of the Labour party at the moment? Maybe if Gordon can come up with an answer he’ll be able to stop the rot.
60 - I love it. “I’m told, the Queen and my husband pace their walk, and the Duke will do what the Duke wants to do!”
At what point does Dave call a vote of no confidence - and make Labour MP’s trot along to prop up their Govt.? How embarrassing it would be for them, to vote to continue with Brown’s sorry excuse for a government. A good time to cross the floor?
69. Hardly likely. These are bad times for Labour but it is impossible to know what “events” are coming in the next 2 years to alter the picture. I don’t think Labour need to worry about falling behind the Lib Dems just yet. Looking like the next election won’t be for a while though.
70
It’s brilliant
37. According to Anthony Wells a 1% variation is not statistically significant but the polls do seem to suggest a slightly stalled position.
However Dave is nowhere to be seen at the moment. He obviously doesn’t want to interrupt Labour at work. The Tory poll ratings are usually at their highest or rise when he is visible - as during the Tory Conf. or at the end of the bad Tory summer and this was against the backdrop of Labour’s support being higher/firmer.
He will pop up when he thinks its best. The events of the Conf. season suggest he has a cool head.
71. No confidence votes by the opposition almost always backfire. There is no greater galvanising force for a political party than your opponents trying it on.
Ouch! That has got to hurt. 27% and 13% behind? And the bad news has not yet had time to sink in!
Just how low can Labour go?
Mind you they are least favourable to Labour. I wonder how the other polls will pan out.
76 - Expect Mori to show a small Labour lead
Apparently the story that Watts is to balme is likely to collapse as donations under these methods started in 2002.
So LOTS of peopes MUST have known. Blair? Brown?
This one has long legs…
I am ready to take bets on Matthew Partridge’s response if the poll does turn out to be true
67 we all know that beneath his bouncy and upbeat style Ave It is a true sage and a shoo-in for any seat in which he fancies being a PPC- no opponent could comete with him!
Sorry at 74 I meant 38 not 37
Wonder if the Tories are currently nervously eyeing their own donor lists?
UPDATE I have just had confirmation of the poll from the boss of ComRes - Andrew Hawkins. He tells me that the last survey which showed such a big Tory lead was a MORI poll for The Times in August 1988, when Margaret Thatcher was still Prime Minister and her party enjoyed a 14-point advantage.
82 - doubt it, they’re all too busy enjoying watching a PM and his Government implode in spectacular fashion!
79. Will you take a bet that Nick Palmer’s next post will include the phrase “a fair amount of spinning going on here”
64 Gabble….
all together now..
Always look on the bright side of lif de dum de dum de dum
…………………………
I know this is gloating just a little, but the picture on ConHome that appears above the news of this poll made me chuckle…
85 to be fair to Nick Palmer he did say the next few polls would be lousy, he just didnt realise how lousy……………
Brown should stop trying to relaunch, every time he does something explodes underneath him!
N Rock in related development: Rainton Business Park
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/wear/6183724.stm
Oh what a curious web we weave..
88 - Nick will be steadfastly focussing on the Conservative share.
78) Also, as I posted on the last thread, since he has only held the post for less than two years his predecessor (Matt Carter)might possibly have known about the “arrangement” as the donations have been going on for more than two years?
Mr Carter, according to the always correct Wikipedia, organised the legal aspects of loans from individuals to the Labour Party that were central to the Cash for Honours political scandal.
So a builder of homes for the poor and downtrodden needs favourable Govt planning decisions and uses others to donate money to the peoples Labour party. What is wrong with that?
Dave Spart is 88 1/2 yrs old
17. Huhne loses Eastleigh by about 2,000. Clegg holds Hallam by about 4,500.
93
Nothing. T Dan Smith and Paulson did it all the time.
10 Noisy Summer
Just seen the poll, and no doubt about it - £20 will be on its way to you just as soon as you let me know where to send it.
Well done!
87 - and I don’t reckon that’s a library photo either, it really was taken an hour ago…
Can anyone remember a more amazing fortnight of consistent of dire news for any Govt (wars excepted)???
93. Well when you put it like that!! And if the people’s Labour party props up dodgy banks so that the poor can hock themselves to the eyeballs to pay the builder lots of cash all the better!
David Abrahams father is referred to as the Newcastle Lord Mayor and “zionist” Bennie Abrahams. Labour’s head of fund raising was Lord Levy. Will there also be a Levy connection as well as a Matt Carter one?
Is Peter Watt’s problem that he inherited the arrangements from Carter/Levy? Watt was previously in charge of Finance.
98. Any 2 weeks you care to pick between September 92 and May 97.
I will continue to batter away at Alistair Darling, I have money on him to be ousted by Xmas 2007.
He can’t get away it ,or can he??
QUOTE
The Treasury Select Committee has warned the chancellor that he could have underestimated the impact of the credit crunch on the economy in his pre-Budget report.
CONTINUE >>>
QUOTE
The report said: ‘We feel that the Treasury’s optimism that the growth rate should revert to trend in 2009 has not been adequately explained.’
The committee was particularly concerned that the pre-Budget report had failed to acknowledge a potential fall in house prices and the effect that this would have on household consumption and confidence.
When a Tory leads pop up, tory posters seem to have big online orgasms here….they totally go wild…I almost imagine Bob Sykes, Matt J, Marquee Mark and Maggie Thatcher Fan dancing in the middle of their city/village streets at the moment holding “Winning Here” placards stolen from local LDs
Guido has more on Donorgate
H. Harman took dodgy donation - when Jack Straw claimed no member of Cabinet knew
Expect dear old Bob Worcester of Mori to be wheeled out arguing that this is a rogue poll and that Labour are really in the lead(probably on the moon)
I hope its Paxo on newsnight this evening..should be fun.
82. The Tories are not in power (and until very recently, looked unlikely to get it), and are not in a position to offer favours in return for hard cash, so are less likely to be offered it.
Of course corruption happens on a local level, and tories now controlling large number of authorities, are likely to be offered bribes on planning related issues, but then knowing how god damn selfish councillors are in general, if there was any cash going trousering, it wouldnt be going to the party, but themselves.
96 - Peter the Punter - off topic but what’s the meaning of “present from the Khaiba Pass.” - genuine.
98. “Can anyone remember a more amazing fortnight of consistent of dire news for any Govt (wars excepted)??? ”
run up of 2006 locals with Dromey and the loans, Hewitt being heckled by nurses, Prescott bedding Sally or Tracy something, some released prisoners being somewhere, calls for Clarke to stand down..guess the joy of Labour councillors up for re-election…
It seems the Tories have met a “technical resistance level” of 40%. Labour collapsing to LDs, SNP and None of the Above. A SNP-Tory-DUP coalition at Westminster, anyone?
Actually this isn’t the largest Conservative lead in recent history. A MFS poll conducted September 6-12th 2000 had the Tories 15 points ahead and a Gallup poll a few days later had them 13 points in front. Of course that resulted in a Conservative landslide the following year
100. Get Carter!
110. And there we all were thinking you were going to say the current poll was all down to a media conspiracy against Labour.
It’s one poll from the most favourable Tory pollster and almost certainly an outlier, but it adds to the sense of slippage.
On Guido
“Harriet Harman got £5,000 from Janet Kidd, a director of David Abraham’s Durham Green Developments Limited, for her deputy leadership bid. Presumably she knew who it really came from - or are we expected to believe she had no idea who was backing her?”
Could any one confirm that Teflon Jack Straw stated that no one in the Cabinet knew anything and is Harriet’s hubby the same Jack Dromey as the Jack Dromey who is the Labour Party treasurer?
114 yes he said it on channel 4 news tonight
113. “It’s one poll from the most favourable Tory pollster and almost certainly an outlier, but it adds to the sense of slippage.”
The Tories are certainly leading…..and leading by a good margin. However I think Labour is still not risking to fall into third place (yet)
110:
That was entirely down to the Fuel Blockades which turned the UK, for a couple of days to near anarchy. The lead went as quickly as it came.
103: Andrea, as you were here during the Summer and read the dross Labour supporters posted here to attack some Tory posters when their party is 13 points ahead is a little unfair.
114
confirm yes.
Andrea… 13 Daves. do you expect me to be miserable? and this poll conducted before the latest news of the last 48 hrs. ……………….
107 Vino - LOL!
Cockney rhyming slang, me old fruit. Khyber Pass - a*se.
I was being offensive. :oop:
116
By next week Labour will be around 20% and LibDems at 23%
110 No fuel protests to hide behind this time partridge!
13 Daves - Kiss my face!!
Not sure why people are surprised. After last weeks Datagate fiasco, it was obvious Labour would be under 30% sooner or latter. In a week or two, even such pollsters as ICM and Populus will have them under 30%. Like I’ve said before, Labour people have very seriously underestimated the damage that losing the personal details of 25 million citizens will/has had. It may not be ERM, but it is incredibly serious and damaging for the government.
He’s not that good looking.
But 13 Dave heads look so much sexier than 13 Brown heads.
110 - Er, have you made those polls up?
123 no, the fuel protests start next week!
114. No one cares if Businessperson X gave money to the Labour party. No matter how a few hacks try to smear the government, unless Mr Staines can prove that the government was improperly influenced by their donation (which he can’t because they weren’t) this mudslinging will fail.
112. I accept that it is a valid poll, but I also think that once the NR crisis is sorted out, which it will be, Labour will recover. Labour might be behind at the end of the year, but I firmly believe that by the start of March they will be back in the lead again.
128 - Matthew, you are aware that the General Secretary of the Labour Party has just resigned?
Also see 126.
“I almost imagine Bob Sykes, Matt J, Marquee Mark and Maggie Thatcher Fan dancing in the middle of their city/village streets at the moment holding “Winning Here” placards stolen from local LDs”
LDs? In my village?
Not likely, they only stood here for the first time ever this year. To be fair, they did beat the Labour candidate. The Tory still polled a creditable 57% of the vote…
When Brown started bashing on about a “new kind of politics” did he mean a type of politics where the Governing party repeatedly shoots itself in the face with no provocation whatsoever.
128. Yep, wasn’t long in coming. All the fault of press smears.
Andrea - orgasmic? What, at the mere idea of the New Labour Snake Oil franchise finally being wound up? I should say so. A state of permanent bliss. Tantric even.
But no stealing “Winning Here” posters from the local LibDems though. We are far too upright a bunch of citizens to ever let the LibDem moss take root in our lawns…
128 “this mudslinging will fail.”
Well the Chairperson of the NEC said NO-ONE knew of donations from Abrahams and Jack Straw said no members of the Cabinet did.
And he’s the third biggest donor.
And it’s a criminall offence that Watts has committed.
Yes: it won’t stick. 5 day wonder..
121 - Peter the Punter - thanks, should have guessed - me and the better half are down your way next week for some early Christmas shopping.
112. accept that it is a valid poll, but I also think that once the NR crisis is sorted out, which it will be, Labour will recover. Labour might be behind at the end of the year, but I firmly believe that by the start of March they will be back in the lead again.
I don’t know, these last few weeks will take a lot longer to recover from than a few months. Labour people are still underestimating the damage that last week in particular did to the government, IMO.
It may not be recoverable, actually.
126 & 129.
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/polls/trends/voting-allpub-trends.shtml#2000
128: Matthew, they may not care about the specifics but it will be another tick in the Labour sleaze box.
128. Did you know that the first phase of grief is denial?
112. [b]“accept that it is a valid poll, but I also think that once the NR crisis is sorted out, which it will be, Labour will recover. Labour might be behind at the end of the year, but I firmly believe that by the start of March they will be back in the lead again.”[/b]
I don’t know, these last few weeks will take a lot longer to recover from than a few months. Labour people are still underestimating the damage that last week in particular did to the government, IMO.
It may not be recoverable, actually.
104 Test tks Guido writes “Harriet Harman got £5,000 from Janet Kidd, a director of David Abraham’s Durham Green Developments Limited”
http://www.order-order.com/
Here’s the evidence.
http://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/harriet_harman/camberwell_and_peckham#register
Interesting that she is Mrs Dromey, wife of Labour Treasurer Jack Dromey. The chap who Peter Watt reported the result of his investigation about Abrahams to over the weekend.
Last time around Jack said words similar to “I know nothing of these donors”. This time we find out his wife’s campign takes £5k from a person used as a front for Abrahams. Does she not talk to him… even in her sleep?
End game is that it is now alleged that the Deputy Labour Leader has directly received cash from an “illegal” donor. I believe I even heard Abrahams say on radio today he had donated to 2 of the Dep Leader contestants.
PS Hilary Benn also reported a David Abrahams donation of £5k.
Therefore 2 cabinet ministers received donations linked to Abrahams, one properly the other questionable.
So no story there then, move along now……..
There is a stench of the Bombay fishmarket on Labour.
LibDems will take Labour voters and will return from the wilderness. Labour is finished.
Perhaps when Labour crooks are in jail, we can rebuild our country, secure our borders, properly fund & support our troops. Perhaps Britain could be like it was before Zanu-Lab got in.
139
It is estimated it takes 18 to 30 months to recover from the death of a dearly loved relative.
136: Has any Government recovered from 27% in the polls?
Did the Tories ever sink that low and win the following election?
137 - What am i supposed to be looking at?
In 2000 Labour were a first term government headed by Tony Blair, up against William Hague. It is now a third term government headed by GB, up against DC. Partridge, can you not see the difference?
118. “Andrea, as you were here during the Summer and read the dross Labour supporters posted here to attack some Tory posters when their party is 13 points ahead is a little unfair. ”
At first I read that you were saying I was attacking Tory posters during the summer…but after re-reading, I see you were referring to Labour posters attacking Con posters during the summer…
yes, it’s cyclical…it depends on the polls..posters tone depends on their party polls! When a party poll well, their supporters start to be more “rampant” and be carried away. And the other parties supporters tend to go away or become more silent: it may be because they are less able to defend their party and they don’t like their “rivals” gloating.
It must be a natural thing.
129. Alex, I think the question should be “do you Labour has a General Secretary?”
122 “By next week Labour will be around 20% and LibDems at 23%”
Lab voters will go to LibDems and the BNP like NRK savers looking for somewhere to put their money.
I would ignore Matthew, people. In 110 he’s quoted two polls which had, respectively, 15pt and 13pt Labour leads!
BBC1 news headlines
Watch!
144 Yes the Conservatives were at 27% in 4 successive Mori polls in 1981 ( and probably lower with other pollsters at that time ) and in 3rd place in 3 of them and of course won the 1983 GE .
Fell off bike today and have fractured knee but at least I should get to sleep dreaming of all those Dave’s!
150 - If the bbc are killing him, then he is in trouble!
144 - probably yes in the 1979-83 parliament.
144. Yes, in 1981-2, and around 1985-6 I think. However, it depends what you mean by win. I feel the chance of another Labour majority is slipping away - if it ever existed - although they are not finished yet. A lot will now depend on the SNP….
144: Tories Sept, Oct, Nov and Dec 1981 - 27%
153
Nick Robinson on Abrahams.
G Brown clear up Politics. Failed.
N Rock £900 per citizen
‘It’s the press, it’s the smears’
The last refuge of the Labour apologist.
157
Sorry £500 not £900
Hmm, not very good, eh? Like test I genuinely think it’s an outlier, but we’ll see. Does anyone have an explanation for the apparent boom in “others’ in all the recent polls?
That news conference Nick Robinson mentioned for tomorrow is going to be fun!
135 You’re very welcome, Vino.
Where you off to? Lakeside?
Shall I send you a phrase book?
In fact, you’ll find the East End pretty much devoid of cockneys at the moment. They’re all doing their Christmas shopping in New York.
15 years ago Abraham’s was turned down as a Labour PPC after a big row in the North East
Nick Robinson says there might be a fourth (!) “donor” (to go with the two in the papers and a solicitor revealed by Peter Watt). But nobody knows who he is!!
164
As Electoral Law says you must know, and Labour say they don’t .. great embarassment…
It’s at times like these that you are almost glad we are not run by Westminster, but by Brussells
Another set of bad headlines for the govt on 10 O’Clock News
149.
Good point, I did made a mistake (I am after all human) in that I misread the polls. The Conservative lead happened later in September and only reached a peak of 8 points. However, the central point of my argument that a rapid swing (in this case from a Labour lead of 15 points to a Tory lead of 8 points in the space of fortnight) can be only fleeting, still stands.
It should also be pointed out that the Conservatives had a lead of 11 points in February.
156 “Tories Sept, Oct, Nov and Dec 1981 - 27%”
That was just before the Conservative Victory & Peace in the Falklands 1982.
If the sinister Brown twins (Tweedle Des and Tweedle Dum) cared for our security and armed forces, they too could see victory and peace. The people may even reward them in the polls.
Well a big (sarcastic) thank you to those protesters who stopped the debate with Griffin et al. Freedom of speech means just that; unfortunately too many believe it means the freedom to just hear the things you want to hear.
Watch for further rises in BNP support as a result, the only way to eat into their potential support is to let them be heard and judged accordingly.
163. “15 years ago Abraham’s was turned down as a Labour PPC after a big row in the North East ”
I think it was for Richmond (Yorks). I seem to have read that at the time he said, among other things, that he was married with children, but then it turned out he made it up and he was single
167 and on C4 at 7pm and on Sky News….
170 - You would have thought that they would have a few more brains.
I think there is a decent case to be made that they should never have been invited in the first place. But once they had, they should have just be left to say their piece and leave. No damage done.
Rather than what did happen.
I should never have started to lay by bet on the Tories being the largest aprty at the next election on betfair and just leave it lie.
Still, at least, the money I put on a 2010 election should be showing a profit. It is hard to see Labour no wishing to hold out as long as possible before going to the electorate now.
What’s tomorrow’s bad news for Labour?
Prescott to continue as MP?
171. Thanks Andrea - useful background!
Its not so much the size of Labour’s dop in the polls that is the reason the last week may not be recoverable, its the actual issue itself. Labour haven’t grasped how bad losing the personal details of 25 million people is. It isn’t something you just brush off and move on from. Its an incredibly serious thing, what happened, and by trying to just dismiss it as a storm in a team cup and at least it wasn’t September 1992, will actually raise people’s anger even more. beofe they can even think of moving on Labour needs to come to terms with the depth of serioussness of what they’ve have done and show a lot more humility.
171 - “…i seem to have read…”
Lol Andrea. Quite by accident, you were trying to watch a football match, when just by chance…
Total global nuclear-thermal labour meltdown!
This makes 1983 look good for labour!
Are we going to see 632 seats for Con, 18 NI?
HEHEHEHEHEHEHE
No mention of 13 Daves on the BBC Ten, unfortunately. I think the Beeb, sadly, were more interested in rushing through the Labour sleaze story and heralding the success of the free speech-deniers at Oxford.
Shameful. Do they not realise that in stifling debate and freedom of speech, it is they who are the real Nazis?
170. Couldn’t agree more. Free speech means just that whatever the opinion. Let the idiots speak and shoot down their arguments.
Is this the moment that Labour has become sleazier than the Tories?
162 - Peter the Punter - na, we’re off to Brussels via Eurostar - thought of New York but too many lower class people dressed in buttons(look like pearls from a distance)go there.They take their handcarts with them.