Will Vince over-shadow whoever wins?
November 28th, 2007
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How can the winner possibly do better than Cable?
With the Lib Dem leadership contest coming into its final phase could the party be facing a big challenge when the new man gets elected and takes his place at Prime Minister’s Questions?
For after another rivetting performance by Cable this lunchtime it’s hard to see how either Clegg or Huhne are going to be able to do anything like as well.
The biggest laughs today came with Cable’s comment about Brown’s “remarkable transformation in the last few weeks from Stalin to Mr Bean, creating chaos out of order rather than order out of chaos”.
Huhne or Clegg are going to face a barrage of heckling when they stand up for the first time with both the Tory and Labour thug elements having a real interest in inflicting early damage.
Mike Smithson
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Yes, I posted Ben Brogan’s piece on this on the last thread.
Sorry to go OT right away but 5th donor revealed? Brogan again
“Funnily enough, the Tories are even now passing round details of someone they believe is the fifth intermediary for Mr Abrahams’ largesse. He is - if they are to be believed - Joseph Waugh, a bicycle shop manager in Mr Abrahams’ home town. He gave Labour two donations of £25,000 each on the same day in February last year. Surely Labour can’t holding back any more?”
He probably will overshadow them. Cable’s PMQ performances have set the bar extremely high so a couple of relative failures for the winner and the murmurs could soon restart
Vince Cable, a man of average height in the land of the Little People.
I said a while back that the LibDem membership should go for a write in for the right man. Wonder if any will?
I’ve got to admit it, Vince did do well at PMQs - but it wasn’t a difficult target.
Brown will be furious that he was the butt of the whole House’s humour.
More carpet chewing at No 10 tonight!
2 - I reckon there might be dozens!
I think Cable is benefiting from the comparison with Ming and the fact that, as an interim leader, he can be a bit more relaxed about taking risks.
Picking up on the last thread - I suspect many supporters of both candidates believe their man is the one to win more general support for the party. The question is which political direction and which candidate is most likely to do it.
Yes Cable will, because he clearly ought to have thrown his hat into the ring.
I do not accept the ridiculous idea that age should be a bar, though obviously being 114, as Ming appeared to be was.
Clearly Cable is able and could do the job.
Also that was a great line!
O/T - The Teacher has been charged in the Teddy bear thing.
Yes Benedict, Cable is indeed able.
The bleeder should be Leader.
A manky old glove puppet would overshadow those two charisma bypass merchants.
Did the MP for these “donors” know that they had donated massive amounts to the party?
I have asked him (Dave Anderson, MP for Blaydon) but he wont tell because I am not his constituent.
He must have been aware surely?
Could a hack get on to it please?
11 - That’s not very flattering to Sir Ming
8. How about “Vince will make you whince - respect!”
9 - Perhaps now we will stop hearing people coming on the news expressing great fear about the repurcussions to the school/community/whatever, and actually address the disgraceful situation that this poor woman finds herself in.
11 - Brown and Cameron I presume you mean
Cable plays well in political obsessive circles but he is too strange looking to be PM.
Is there any chance that Mr Abrahams is Labour’s only donor, I mean it does seem odd that a bicycle shop owner could afford to give so much money to Labour, but then again one of their biggest donors is meant to have got his money from a part share in greengrocers.
O/T
“Discs ‘worth £1.5bn’ to criminals
Two missing computer discs containing the personal details of 25 million people could be worth up to £1.5bn to criminals, say the Lib Dems.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7117291.stm
Nick Palmer speaking in the House now.
18 - Lol. Just imagine it. Every Labour donation under £100,000 in the last 5 years originating from one man!
Cable’s old and bald. The sad assumption is that he can’t be leader in our lovely visual age. I am not sure I agree. He showed today that there are other ways then looks to get the leading soundbite on the 6 O’Clock news.
2 - Bicycle Repair Man? And now for something completely different
http://cycling.finial.com/stuff/supermen.jpg
What’s Gordon doing there on the bottom left?
Re 10 Peter the Punter “Yes Benedict, Cable is indeed able.
The bleeder should be Leader.
”
20 - on his one and only favourite topic, presumably?
Sorry. I said I was going to ignore the topic. I couldn’t resist…
21 - and all to be repaid, as well?
If I was a Lib Dem I’d start a ‘Draft Vince’ campaign.
23 - if I was Terry Jones, I’d sue you for that John!
Re 14 Ali G “8. How about “Vince will make you whince - respect!””
Re 17, Panurge, “Cable plays well in political obsessive circles but he is too strange looking to be PM.”
If he is in the Liberal Democrats there is no danger of him ever becomming PM!
Nick Palmer quite sensible as one would expect but even he says you have to have be a senior manager to release data. I assume by senior he means at the level of, say, the General Secretary.
25 - It’s a pleasure to hear a Labour MP pontificating on ID cards and databases etc while actually know what they’re talking about. Whether you agree with him or not, Nick does at least know what he’s talking about. I know he won’t admit it, but he really must be embarrassed at the contributions of some of his colleagues on the issue who are completely out of their depth.
(it is true that many opponents are also short of genuine knowledge, but it is far easier to put simplistic arguments against ID cards without sounding like a complete idiot).
Yes, as I said on the previous thread, it would have been much easier if Huhne or Clegg were following Ming directly, rather than having to follow Cable. He has immediately set the threshold much higher than Ming ever could, making Huhne/Clegg’s task harder.
I agree with Panurge @ 17 though: Cable plays well in ‘politically obsessive’ circles, but exposed to the general public over a longer period, in different circumstances, and I think his shine would wear off. (He looks more like a secondary school chemistry teacher than a politician)
Remember too, that PMQs doesn’t have the same resonance for the general public as it does for us politicos, although being able to say something worthy of a TV news soundbite (which Cameron and Cable both do well) will be essential, whoever is chosen as leader.
“Sleaze scandal: Deputy Harriet Harman’s future in question as she is axed from debate”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=496940&in_page_id=1770
Jospeh Waugh the alleged fifth man donated 25,000, on the same page, on the Electoral Commission report is Peter xxxxxxxx from Putney donating £510 to Labour
Should we be told something? Is he the sixth man!
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/media-centre/newsreleasedonations.cfm/news/609
Basically Nick accepts there’s a trade off in the whole thing, but in my (not particularly knowledgeable) opinion significantly overplays the benefits and understates the risks, which obviously skews his views of what is “proportionate”. As an IT professional he also seems to overfocus on the technology and how it should work, and underplay the human factor and how it will work.
OK who should I vote for, for LD leader. I just can’t make up my mind. Voting record so far: Pardoe, Beith, Hughes, Huhne, so a 100% failure record so it isn’t as if my vote is worth anything and I can’t believe I voted for Beith over Ashdown now.
35 - Nothing to be ashamed of kjh. So did Mike, except he still maintains he was right!!!
12. Why would the MP know about donations made by his constituents to the national labour party? And why on earth would you expect him to tell you, irrespective of whether or not you’re his constituent?
Good day to buy Labour.
What is the worse offence in a leader in our telegenic age: to be bald - or ginger?
35. kjh - Stick with Huhne. Read Tim13’s posts atthe end of the last thread.
4.. Spot on. ‘chaos out of order, rather than order out of chaos?’ Doesn’t sound that impressive.
I remember Brown’s first PMQs. Ming suddenly seemed impessive. Brown would make half of England seem impressive. Ball at feet. Open Goal. Kick. Cheers from the rooftops.
35
Vote for the one who sounds most human. (that’s why I disliked Hague and Howard and IDS and Kinnock and why I dislike Brown… all sound/ed less than normal humans)
I have my ballot paper here .
I have decided. I am going to vote for Clegg. Huhne seems a bit too scary though he has real achievements and is prepared to fight.
We will have the advantage of going into the next election with Vince and Ming and Clegg and Huhne better known and all with something to give. The Conservative Home monthly questionnaire listing what I think of the Tory ministers - still amazes me - most of them have been totally invisble
32
An analysis of Ms Harman’s campaign funds has found that of the £46,000 donated to her, £33,000 was registered only after she won the deputy leadership on 25 June.
She had been forced to take out a personal bank loan of £10,000 to cover the costs of campaign. As her team desperately sought to raise money, they were put in contact with a group called Muslim Friends of Labour, which gave £5,000.
The group’s involvement raises more questions as it is being investigated by the Electoral Commission over claims that it is a front for Glasgowbased businessman Imran Khand
38 “Good day to buy Labour.”
Seems like just a handful of people have been buying Labour for years…. Like all those inflatible tanks we had in the war, they just tried to make it look like an army.
“I’m the Labour donor.”
“No, I’m the Labour donor”….
Re 35 KJH, “OK who should I vote for, for LD leader. I just can’t make up my mind. Voting record so far: Pardoe, Beith, Hughes, Huhne, so a 100% failure record so it isn’t as if my vote is worth anything and I can’t believe I voted for Beith over Ashdown now.”
Write in another option of Cable, then the other two in any order.
38,45 A dyslexic/fast skim reader sees that as “Goodbye Labour today”
38/45 - Yep, unfortunate choice of phrase, Gabble!
For those who like to pick their horses by topical names, Gullible Gordon goes at Chepstow in a couple of minutes.
48 - Gabble just missed out an ‘r’. What was intended was ‘Good day to bury Labour’
49 Strong start then falls way back, but comes from nowhere to win the race in the last furlong? Hmmm.
Re. 42, I thought that (until at least his cheap jibe about taxing spirits in his last Conference speech) IDS was much nicer and much more human than those ostensibly nice (but, in reality, very petulant and peevish) characters Major and Cameron.
Icarus - continuing from the last thread in what way do you think Nick Clegg will take us forward. I agree with Tim 13’s last post:
“There is a (fairly) lively debate in the Lib Dems about how to break out of the 3rd party trap. I (and clearly Goupillon) believe the only way to do that is to go distinctive. Others in the party look to “sticking to the centre” and therefore not do anything to rock the boat of the post-Thatcher / Blair consensus. You, I think, like most of the Tories or near-Tories on this site, would find it hard to go along with this. Which, I think is why you express that view. Equally, I believe, from doorstep experience, that many ordinary Tory voters would be more inclined to break away from their normal habits in favour of a Lib Dem who took a noticeably different line. For most of the other potential LD voters, looking “more Tory” is not an attractive line. So for me, and those who think similarly, there is no alternative as far as positioning and political strategy is concerned. Charles kennedy’s great strength was to represent that independence of mind to the great non-political British public.”
I have listened to Nick and read his literature but I am not at all clear how he would lead theParty.
Re 47, Jonathan. “38,45 A dyslexic/fast skim reader sees that as “Goodbye Labour today”
How apt
Two points:
On the subject of Cable. He is certainly doing well at PMQs and has some very good lines but a significant element in his success is the willingness of the Tory benches to cheer him. I suspect that this is not unrelated to his temporary status. Would they be so supportive of Clegg/Huhne who they know will be their opponent in a general election?
43 - Icarus says “We will have the advantage of going into the next election with Vince and Ming and Clegg and Huhne better known and all with something to give. The Conservative Home monthly questionnaire listing what I think of the Tory ministers - still amazes me - most of them have been totally invisble”
This ignores the fact that the Tories now have a strong top team. Hague, Davis and Osborne are all high profile. Until recently the latter was the weak link but he’s done an impressive job of raising his profile and reputation since the IHT announcement at party conference.
PtP from the previous thread:
I would be interested to know what PBers ……. think the realistic floor is.
“Realistic” is the key word here and I just see no prospect whatever of Labour losing more than 100 seats net at the next GE, which would equate to a floor of around 255 seats, although it’s quite possible that the betting markets may dip below this level.
Come the election, I expect them to secure a minimum of 275 seats.
Labour are indeed very capable of winning the next GE (especially with a change of leader IMHO), the present electoral climate is very volatile with a Labour lead of 12% in late September completely reversing to a similar Tory lead in just two months, plus they have the major advantage of incumbancy.
For these reasons, even over the short term, I wouldn’t be a seller of Labour below 280 seats, nor a buyer of Tory seats above the same level. Of course, were I to have open profitable positions at these levels, I would be tempted to let them run a while. In forming this view, I recognise that I may be somewhat inactive in these markets, at least for now.
Yes I agree we should not be afraid of being distinctive if the distinctive policy is right! Leading the Liberal Party is not as easy as leading either of the other two - I hope we would not allow the sort of presidential system that has built up with individual MPs, let alone members having no say in policy.
I think Nick will be better at putting the policies that the party believes in across, that he will market himself better and continue the good work that Ming has done with our organisation.
If Chris won I should be happy to support him.
56 Sorry for the unintended extended itallics.
57.Icarus - we both want the same thing and I confirm I will support Nick if he is successful!
56
If there are several resignations over the payments sffair and the story in the Timesonline about Ministry interference in Planning permission is true - and develops - I can see Labour share dropping below 20%.Temporarily.
And a change of leadership will imo be caused only by illness or a MAJOR disaster (Brown and police?) so it will be a desperate situation. Which surely would mean very low poll ratings…
So perhaps 180 may not be impossible. Depends on what the SNP do in Scotland.
Why are the BBC interviewing David Blunkett from Jerusalem?
56 I should add that having nervously sold Labour quite recently at around 285, I recently closed at 272. It’s disappointing that Spreadfair’s spread of late has been 6-8 seats, similar to IG & Sporting. I’m sure as we get closer to an election and turnover increases, these will close up somewhat.
56 Thanks for that, PfP.
The reason I ask is that I have a large Labour sell position and would kind of like to realise the profit, but it’s difficult to do so at present when every new bulletin brings them further woes.
You rather reinforce my view that the price doesn’t have much further to fall, although it sure ain’t going to go up for a bit.
61 - He just had to throw his two penneth in.
64 - but is it his two penn’orth or someone else’s?
62 Yes, the spreads usually narrow as the event approaches, PfP.
I seem to be alone in thinking that Vince’s performance today was not actually his best - the joke about Stalin & Mr Bean seemed just a tad over-rehearsed. Credit to him, however, for again overcoming the shakes, by the simple expedient of gripping his prompt paper with both hands, locked together in a vice-like clamp.
Re 61, Alex “Why are the BBC interviewing David Blunkett from Jerusalem?”
because they would rather not be in teh same country as him?
O/T from previous thread -
PtP No, not Pimlico, but Plaistow, so nearer you!
67 - no doubt impeccably well written on a nice sheet of paper - unlike “Mr Bean” with his child-like jottings scrawled in black marker pen in capital letters across his tagged-together reams of notes.
You can tell how shambolic a PM Brown is from the shambolic nature of his notes.
I think it is likely that Clegg if he wins will grow into the role. He is by no means the finished article.
What should excite the LD’s is that they are starting to amass not only a pretty talented looking front bench, but a group of interested, party grandees that are more impressive than the other parties.
So a Clegg run party, with Huhne, Davey, Featherstone etc. and Cable, Ming, Chaz, Paddy, Shirley fighting the rear quarter. This is a mouth watering prospect for them at a time when there looks to be a serious opportunity for a breakthrough.
63 I expect the bull market will be dominated by the perceptions that the bottom for Labour is more or less between Labour’s 1983 result (200 ish) and Tories 1997/2001 (160 ish).
If things look really dire the “Canadian Style Wipeout” peception make take root with some overenthusiastic wealthy Tories, so the Market could dip a bit toward the low end. Also the Christmas silly season has traditionally been a bad time for Labour. So it could fall further around the holiday.
Against that, all it takes is one slip from Cameron or a couple of decent polls to change the momentum and push things back to a vanilla middle ground.
So a getting out above 200+ looks like the low risk option, but you might be lucky.
Sean Fear, white supremacist supporter;
From the Reading Evening Post comments:
http://www.getreading.co.uk/news/2018/2018296/underfire_tory_im_no_racist_
“Richard Willis has written nothing that he should be expected to apologise for, and there is nothing that Mr. Wilson needs to be investigating. Far too often, when Tories get attacked by the Left, their reaction is to throw one of their number to the wolves. I fear that that is what will happen here. Left wing grandstanding over this issue should be treated with the contempt it deserves.”
Sean Fear, Luton
Note, the awful Fear says Willis has written NOTHING to apologise for. Willis himself has made a grovelling apology in an attempt to save his job.
Cable’s able but Vince is mince but being a Lib dem and looking strange is just the kind of USP a third party needs. If Chris from Paris is there-your country is falling apart! Bring back the socialists!
74. I think Gordon is the one who is mince today!
Labour’s ACTUAL floor maybe around 200. Their SPREADMARKET floor will be a lot higher.
53 - Goupillon mirrors my feelings exactly and, as a mere common or garden voter, I have no ultimate ties. I will have to be convinced into voting at all if Clegg is leader, if only Kennedy were fit and well enough…….
71 - The problem with that is that, if the figurehead performs below expectations, as Clegg has been doing, the talk of challenges, as per Ming, will intensify with such a strong back line.
Better to keep Clegg for the future, now is not the right time.
Very good line from Vince Cable. Not sure outsiders will get the Stalin reference but none the less good.
Having done a bit of work for the Clegg team my information is that the vote is running 60/40 to Clegg but of course that does come from the Clegg team. Did a You Gov poll on the Lib Dem leadership yesterday so guess it will be published soon.
73- if there is anything French people want, it’s certainly not to bring back the incedibly weak and divided socialist party to power.
Besides, I don’t see in which way my country is “falling apart”… and I cannot see how the incredibly moronic and self-centred Ms Royal would be able to do anything better than the current government.
73. It’s the socialists rioting on the streets that are making the country fall apart! Bringing them back into government would be like putting the criminals in charge of the prison!
79 - I think it is more complicated than that
79- the socialists aren’t in the street, they’re nowhere…
Without wishing to gloat, can someone give me the full list of disasters that have befallen Labour in the last two weeks, both inside and outside the Village? Dates too would be helpful.
To my recollection, the list includes:
- Discgate
- Northern Rock stuff
- Milliband’s speech being changed
- Lord West’s u-turn
- Defence Lords against Brown
- Party funding stuff and HH
Was the immigrants thing recently or not? Two weeks is a long time in politics!
56 Labour losing 120 seats is about the limit because of the advantage they have in the electoral system.
A key area is the block of 40+ Labour Scottish seats. The SNP have made progress but are not reaching above the 35% level nor have Labour fallen below 30% in Scotland. If that happened then significant numbers of Labour seats would fall.
75 Absolutely!! Sorry of I wasn’t clear.
82-http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/374326/brown-needs-to-recover-and-quick-or-he-is-doomed.thtml
85- http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/374326/brown-needs-to-recover-and-quick-or-he-is-doomed.thtml
38 “Good day to buy Labour “.. Gabble…., was that a typo, did you mean “Good day to bury Labour ?
63. I posted some time ago that barrier points in the Tory seats market were 285 (parity), 300 (round number), 309 (100 seat gain) and 325 (majority).
This is based on my rule of thumb that parity is at 285 (570 plus 80 others). Clearly, one’s view of the LD and SNP prospects would affect this. The 285 mark was broken at the start of Brown’s Faltering Fortnight. The 300 mark is approaching fast.
Conversely, Labour’s barrier points would be 285, 270 (mirroring 300) and 245 (Con majority).
This does not mean that 245 is the floor or that any of these numbers will be reached. Just that these numbers represent real political achievements and gamblers will be watching them. Similarly, the market could go the other way if Brown recovers or Cameron stumbles.
50 sorry James, just noticed you got there before me…
61 “Why are the BBC interviewing David Blunkett from Jerusalem?”
“That bloody dog. I’m supposed to be in Bradford….”
These threads are becoming better by the day. A lot of funny posts today………
My reason for thinking Clegg’s the man (apart from £200 at 5/4) is that he speaks six languages. Nothing impresses a women like multi lingualism. All he needs is a few overseas trips and then out onto the balcony with a press corps firing questions at him in whatever language they choose…………..
49/51 re Gullible Gordon
According to the Sporting Life he was “held up, ridden and headway over 4f out, hung left and weakened ”
And finished 6th.
92 Very funny.
87 - I own the copyright on that gag
94/87/50 James , I just posted an apology. Great gag!
81. If the Socialits aren’t on the streets who are those motley people carrying plackards all over Nice?
91 - When was the last time there was a lot of publicity about a third party’s overseas trips?
Whoever it is, the leader chosen needs to prise voters away from the other parties whilst keeping those they hold, everything else is secondary to that.
97. Well if they want my vote helping me win my bet would be a start!
92 Well, what did you expect?
Well like I said yesterday, and the day before etc. It can only be up from now on for Labour!!
94,5 Your copyright is not worth much for such a derivative work, clearly developed from a previous post (47).
Evening All
Any whisper of a poll being published in the light of the latest debacle?
101-I asked almost the same in the last thread and Anthony said:
“275: YouGov’s one is due this week, so Friday or possibly tomorrow if it’s early, MORI’s could pop up any day.”
96- trade-unionists, communists, members of various far-left parties… The socialists do not support officially the recent strikes.
Mind you they don’t oppose them either
“HH unsackable.” James Kirkup
News to me.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/politics/threelinewhip/nov07/unsackableharriet.htm
“Could it be that Mr Brown has been reminded of the fact that Ms Harman is almost unsackable. She was elected to her post as Labour deputy leader by the party members, and only they can sack her from that job. And as long as she is deputy leader, Labour’s constitution states she must have a Cabinet job.”
This from Fraser Nelson on Spectator blog posted on Conservative Home
4pm: A great line from Fraser Nelson (my emphasis): “Brown told Peter Tapsell that “this job is an important job and I will continue to do it to the best of my ability”. Yes, Prime Minister, that’s what we’re all worried about.”
Highly amusing piece….
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/backbencher/story/0,,2218449,00.html
It certainly raises the question. What has happened to Gordon’s compass - he hasn’t mentioned it for a while?
Afternoon all
I attended the LD leadership hustings in London last evening and if you’re interested, I’ve put my thoughts here:
http://aloadofoldstodge.blogspot.com/2007/11/evening-with-nick-and-chris.html
People have called it a “head or heart” decision but there is, I think, a parallel with the Cameron-Davis contest in 2005. Nick Clegg isn’t the finished article and Mike is probably right to be concerned about his impact in the HoC. He struggled at times last night to find the right word (or any word) and hesitation like that will cost him dear in the bearpit.
Chris is much more measured and his speech was delivered with an authority, conviction and passion that I’ve rarely heard (though intonation remains a small problem). In the bearpit and on tv, I think Chris will do well but Nick is engaging and conversational and people do warm to him.
I don’t in any way underestimate the huge service Vince Cable has carried out in the past few weeks and he has perhaps had the “luck” that always deserted Sir Menzies. Issues on which Cable can speak with authority have come to the fore at the right time.
I can’t comment on what madmacs opines at 77 but I certainly thought last night the split was 40% for Huhne, 30% for Clegg and 30% undecided on the way in. After the hustings, I can’t say. I will be surprised if Clegg wins by as much as 60-40 to be honest.
A vote for Clegg is a risk - the danger is he fails to shine at events like PMQs and doesn’t develop but there is little doubt in my mind he is more willing to think “outside the LD box” on a range of issues such as defence, vouchers etc. Chris is the leader the Party will be comfortable with and I suspect he will attract some of the “plague on both or all your houses” vote but he was too willing to close down too much last night in what I thought was an attempt to push the right buttons with the activists.
Many of the socio-economic and environmental problems facing our country are complex and interconnected and it may well be that solving or ameliorating them will require solutions which may be difficult for liberals (as well as conservatives) to deal with but that doesn’t mean they can’t be considered if they appear to be effective.
83/87. Don’t forget in 1983 the Nationalists were a spent force. An SNP breakthrough combined with a 1983 Labour performance would put the floor at around 180. The lift-off point for the SNP (and for any party with a similar vote-structure under FPTP) is at 33%. As a rule of thumb, for every 1% increase above that level, 3 Labour seats fall. I thought polls were showing the SNP at above this level at the moment.
77 - If Team Clegg’s canvassing is putting him at 60-40 then it is probably very close indeed.
107 - Your comment that Chris is better on TV is important. That is how most members will judge the candidates and how the public will too. Clegg may be very charming one to one, and may even be a more passionate speaker, but it is short news clips and programmes like Newsnight and Question Time that really count.
77 I heard the other day from “a senior member of Huhne’s team” that they are running 50/50 according to their phoning. So I suppose you split the difference, and maybe it’s around 55/45 Clegg. My instinct however is that Huhne is just in the lead. I know he lost some support over the Politics Show appearance last weekend, however.
Brown will be glad that Jackie Ashley is “back”:
http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/jackie_ashley/2007/11/down_but_not_out.html
LDs must elect someone who stops them being
1) Invisible
and then
2) Irrelevant
That’s it. So who is better at getting on the news and who can use those 40-60 MPs to best effect, in the commons before and after the election. And who can bring the 1000s of local councillors into a national narrative for the LDS.
Kennedy did both around the time of the Iraq vote. What are the future issues that the LD are going to influence.
Cable has put pressure on the police to launch an investigation.
Interesting post Stodge. i think you are the only LD who hasn’t declared their own voting intention yet which on here at least seems to be running in NC’s favour.
I’ve just had a call from a friend from England who is sort of ‘in the know’ and she thinks HH is on her way out. I was surprised and if it’s true then this thing is bigger than it looks from this distance and it really does spell trouble for Labour.
Icarus43 Tyson71.Dont vote Clegg he wont be there after the GE.Try the member for Orkneys who ever it is.
Anyone prepared to check him out?
http://www.enablemedia.com/500001035279
On my canvassing for Team Clegg on a sample of around 70 I had Nick Clegg ahead by 42-34 with a few not says. I am supporting Nick because I do believe he is the better media communicator. Frankly in this media driven age that is very important. Wish Julia Goldsworthy had a go though - maybe next time, which I hope is many years away!
115 - “Dont vote Clegg he wont be there after the GE”
What swing do the Tories need there?
I genuinely think the LD’s will be missing a trick not to go for Clegg. He will be the most likeable party leader that we have had for some time now.
Cameron though likeable is a Tory which undermines his likeability. Likeable and Tory are a contradiction in terms, always was, always will be.
Clegg seems and behaves like one of us, and his party looks more like joe public than the others. They have women to boot. Sorry dear Harriett, as delightful and luscious as she is, the liberal women do appear vaguley competent. Tory women just seem strange, and the attractive ones look like upper class crumpett.
So the time is right for a normal looking, straight talking, likeable party leader leading a normal looking and likeable party talking normally to the public about the things that concern them.
Clegg is almost perfect for this role. Huhne is too much of a risk.
111. That latest from Sir Jackie Ashley has the look of something rapidly pecked out on her Blackberry while she was sat on the toilet trying to get rid of last night’s curry.
117.How many undecideds, not says, anti telephone canvassers and not votings did you have? Whose constituency was this in?
118
Clegg has an 8000 majority - a 10.7% swing from LD to Tory would lose him his seat, so I reckon he’s safe in Sheffield Hallam.
Huhne has only a 586 majority - becoming party leader might save him, but the Tories and Labour will amke him a target (0.6% swing LD to Conservative would lose him his seat).
Morus
Busy news day, a man charged in the rachel nickell wimbledon common murder. That poor teacher charged over a teddy bear by religious morons and breaking news now that a preimership manager was one of the men arrested by the police today
122. Don’t you worry about Chris - his constituency workers are doing a great job. I am sure Mark Senior how well they did in the last local elections compared with other LD seats.
I think this shows what a superb top team the Lib Dems have…
97- ukPaul- I know you buy into all this tough man persona that Huhne is trying to create for himself.
Likeable is good. They use to call TB Bambi when in opposition. Clegg is perfect for the LD’s. He is charming, and the media will flock to him when they get annoyed again with Cameron and Osbourne.
A 13-point Tory lead - that’s horrifying. Tory overall majority is starting to look quite likely.
It always used to be claimed that there was a ‘floor’ for Labour of around 28%. I don’t buy this - Le Pen in france used to have a ceiling. And yet there’s something in it. It gets very very hard to dislodge anyone further after that. But it’s hard to see the Tory momentum stopping. The Lib Dems aren’t likely to fall back from where they are, leaderless and publicity-less as they are.
Cable was probably right though, that there’s too much ageism for a bid from him to have been tenable.
Catching up after the long HMRC debate - just briefly:
30/34: thanks, alex!
395 last thread - also thanks to Icarus - always nice to know someone watches these things! I won’t take up the kind invitation to join the LDs, though there are a lot of LD voters who help make up my majority, and we’re usually nice to each other. I don’t think the two parties’ voters and values in general differ all that much in outlook, and if Labour didn’t exist I’d happily join the LDs despite the familiar policy differences.
Marcus asked if I was campaigning on candidate spending before I was an MP. No, I was doing IT stuff in faraway Basel and wasn’t campaigning on anything in Britain (though I was a member of the Swiss Social Democrat economic policy commission, which must win some sort of nerdhood award). But I’ve always thought spending limits a good idea, and this has been a consensus view in Britain until recently.
Witan quizzes me on Labour spending generally and suggests I should research it for him. Pass!
“Just had a call from CCHQ. Turns out they are WRONG about Mr Waugh, who they say has nothing whatsoever to do with this whole business. Such is the frenzy.”
Ben Brogan
and he has another piece:
( http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2007/11/gordon-of-khart.html )
“One surefire way for Gordon Brown to draw attention from Labour’s woes would be to declare war on Sudan. Or at least send gunboats up the Nile to rescue British teacher Gillian Gibbons and her teddybear.”
Over the last few weeks, though not a LD, I have moved from absolute neutrality on the LD Leadership to actually hoping Huhne gets it. Clegg bores me - I don’t see the fire in his belly, and I don’t think he is trying hard enough to win (a complaint that could equally be levelled at the Tory shadow cabinet, except for Chris Grayling who is everywhere).
As long as Huhne doesn’t have to spend the whole GE campaign in Eastleigh, defending his seat, I think he would be a much better campaigning third-party leader.
Vince Cable has been the perfect interim leader, but he has not been attacked by the other two parties because he is precisely that. The next leader will have to be much stronger to quell the bile and invective that they will inevitably attract.
124. Should read “Mark Senior will confirm”
126 - Likeable is fine when you have power, likeable in opposition makes you look weak. Blair knew that he would be able to change that, a lib dem leader is, unfortunately, stuck with knowing that they will have next to no chance of doing the same.
Clegg will be great when he is up against someone who isn’t as similar as Cameron, as it is he will find it difficult to stop the tories gaining from the comparison.
121. Not just one constituency as I was given folks over a range of constituencies all in the Gloucestershire county. Should have done over 130 but some personal problems emerged which limited me. Had a couple who were no longer members, and perhaps six undecided.
Any way the You Gov poll should give some better idea when it is out.
To help us keep everything in perspective, The Trials of Gordon are not in the Top Five most read stories on BBC News Online. Nickell, M25, Sleep, Footy and Teddies are considered far more important.
122 - I don’t think that the Tories or Labour will target Huhne too much. The Tories have easier targets to go for - like Romsey and Meon Valley. Labour will be trying to hold on in Southampton.
Of all the Hampshire seats the LDs hold, I would say Eastleigh is the least likely to fall. Look at the local results for starters.
114 - To be fair, Roger, we have been telling you that since yesterday
135 - Imagine Huhne was leader going into a GE that many now think might be odds-on for an Hung Parliament with Tories as the biggest party. Under such circumstances, even as a contingency, would not the Tories want to overturn the measly 568 vote majority, so as to be able to negotiate a better settlement for potential coalition without a strong figurehead in the HoP?
Imagine the LDs conducting negotiations about Cabinet seats without their leader being able to take one of them! The Tories would get their coalition without the sacrifices that a strong leader would force them to make.
I cannot believe that Huhne will not be a top 5 target if he wins, and the polls are showing a
136 (con) - and in fact it’s been obvious since Peter Watt resigned. Only if you believed the nonsense spin about him being a “minor official” could you think otherwise.
137 - a less than 10% lead for the Tories over Labour.
I expect a 15% Conservative lead in polls in two weeks time.. over the LibDems. And 18% over LAbour.
Rednapp arrested apparently in the football thing from earlier, lay quick if you were on him for England manager.
123. The “Daily mail” has named the manager as Rednapp.
I’m glad to see the predicament Harman and Dromey have got themselves into.
They were so pious and superior over the cash-for-honours affair.
They deserve their cumuppence.
Putting it in terms which may resonate with some on here, last night’s hustings was a bit like going to the paddock before the start of a 2-y-o maiden.
Clegg is the choice on breeding and has apparently been burning up the gallops but he is looking round and sweating and whinneying and as green as an unripe banana. On the other hand, bags of potential, impeccable conformation and bound to improve for the experience.
Huhne is the unfashionably bred type - small but well put together. Hasn’t probably the scope to improve much on what he does on this run but he’s fit and ready to run.
If the LD leadership were a maiden open to 2-y-o of all ages, I would back Huhne but Clegg is undoubtedly going to reverse form later in the season. Unfortunately, this is a two and a half year sprint, not a four-year marathon.
133. madmacs - sorry just to be clear about this am I right that you telephoned and spoke to 70 people and only 6 told you they were undecided? How many “outs” did you call?
City of London police have come to Gordon’s rescue.
It’s almost certainly linked to the Portsmouth Manager market.
… but results do not follow the pattern you expect. Some tiny majorities become huge - Norfolk N in 2005, Kingston and Surbiton in 2001. Huhne is having an impact, I am sure. I would expect him to have one of the largest LD majorities next time round.
Huge majorities can tumble too. I think in 1987 Malcolm Bruce had the largest LD majority. It crumbled from 9,000 to 200 in 1992.
146 - Scrap that.
What really surprises me in this leadership campaign is that so few in the Liberal Democrats have apparently rumbled Huhne’s line of the being the candidate with ‘real world’ business experience.
Anyone who has worked in the City knows that the business experience he plays so heavily in speeches and at hustings involved a firm that is not even no.1 or 2 in the credit analysis/ratings niche. This business is primarily about writing reports and that’s where Huhne’s was able to apply his journalistic experience.
If a CV with such experience crossed your desk in the City, it would in no way be regarded as remarkable.
148. Harry redknapp and portsmouth chief executive peter storey among five arrested.
136. You told me it was a big deal but not that HH looks like she’s on her way out!
OT. An editor I was working with during the Colin Stagg arrest had a wife who worked for the police in their pathology department if I remember. Apparently though they were finding it hard to supply the compelling evidence the police were 100% certain he did it. Which just goes to show no one knows anything for certain.
All the indications are that Huhne is digging in well in Eastleigh.
Tyson - I’m just not convinced that there are a lot of votes in ‘niceness’. Certainly not more than there are in credibility.
The LDs need a leader who will make a splash, crreate distinctive stories etc. Huhne seems better at that - like today with the donations story.
England down from 3rd to 15th in World reading tables.
153 - so does that mean we’ll be unseeded for the next round of qualifiers?
152 - And, while most LD members have probably voted, his greater presence on people’s TV screens in the last few days may well get a few more to vote for him.
147 - Of course, and I expect that Huhne’s majority would go up.
My point was just that the Tories must surely make him a target, and that he would be wise to put the time into defending his own seat, which might restrict his duties as touring National Leader during a hectic campaign schedule.
149 - Your point is well-made, but in fairness very few MPs have an economic background and exposure to the world of business. A report looking at the background of MPs found they were disproportionately from Legal, Journalistic or Public Service backgrounds. It is a distinguishing factor, even if it does not appear particularly distinguished in that area. You cannot blame him for trying to highliight this.
Huhne is very vulnerable in Eastleigh. I don’t buy the theory that he’ll turn the seat into a fortress simply by virtue of becoming leader.
Thorpe as the new Liberal leader very nearly lost Devon North in 1970, hanging on by just 369 votes. He had a majority of 1,166 in 1966.
The next election will be similar to 1970, in that the Tories will be in some kind of upswing, and the LDs may well be in a downswing.
My estimate is Huhne will do about 5% better than the national swing, a bit bigger comfort-margin that 568 votes, but still very vulnerable….
Recent polls show Huhne convincingly losing his seat, despite this bonus…
Why did Nick not participate live in this latest “hustings” arranged by the BBC:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/talking_point/7117079.stm
Does anyone else that the Conservatives are in a potentially big dilemma. It may still just be hyperbole, but we are getting close to a point where people might actually be questioning whether Brown himself might have to go.
But that might be the one thing that saves the Govt at the next election. Brown’s problem (aside from his character) is that he is intimately associated with the past so cannot offer a clean break from it. There are however other Cabinet ministers who could. And nobody who knows anything about politics would reject the possibility that such a move could dramatically revive Labour.
Did Nick Palmer go to the Broxtowe Christmas party?
http://regionalnews.bnp.org.uk/bnp-east-midlands-england-region/broxtowes-successful-christmas-social_2327.html
159-I don’t think Brown will have to go, but let’s suppose this happens. Who, in the Labour party, could represent a “clean break” from the past?
161 - Alan Johnson could easily. John Denham could.
161. Alan Johnson would be a shoe-in, imho…
160 - thanks for having me click on a BNP website. I feel sullied now!
161 “Who, in the Labour party, could represent a “clean break” from the past?”
As the biggest critic of all that has gone before - step forward Bob Marshall-Andrews!
161. Jacqui Smith.
But seriously - whenever I see him on TV, I always think that John Denham would be a fearsome opponent for the Conservatives to have to face.