Did Ken hold back MORI to trump YouGov?
February 27th, 2008
The MORI poll he reported is nearly three weeks old
I have now got the fieldwork dates and some other details from the private MORI poll for Labour that Ken “pulled out of the hat” as news of the 5% deficit in the YouGov survey came out.
The MORI fieldwork started getting on for three weeks ago, on February 8th and went on until the 12th. A sample of 808 Londoners was interviewed by telephone.
The survey found on that on the first round it was 38% Livingstone, 35% Johnson and 14% Paddick. When second preferences were taken into account that moved to Ken 49% to Boris 47%.
The latest YouGov poll, which was commissioned by a media organisation, ITN, was conducted last week and had Boris on 44%, Ken on 39% with Paddick at 12%. In between the MORI and YouGov polls lee Jasper was suspended.
My understanding is that Labour and Ken knew about the MORI poll almost as soon as it had been completed but it was deemed to be a deadly secret because of the closeness of the finding.
I am assured that the full data will be provided in the two day time period that is laid down.
In the Mayoral betting Ken has moved out to 0.74/1 with Boris moving in to 1.2/1. My view, based on the evidence we have, is that Boris is now the marginal favourite.
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How long will it take them to release it? That last one still hasn’t had the details released from months back.
I would concur Mike that Boris is probably slight favourite now, especially when you consider organisational and other factors on top of these polls. I also have a theory as to why Ken was so desperate to rejoin Labour in 2004 and Labour rolled over so easily, that Ken’s vote was softer and moving to the official Labour candidate Gavron and there was a fear on the part of Ken/Labour that Norris could slip through the middle.
Kens arrogance in taking on the Evening Standard (and thinking he might come out on top!) is definitely going to cost him re election.
Perhaps that is a lesson that should not be missed by the Labour MP’s who signed an EDM slagging off Nick Robinson the other day.
Ken will be just fine at this election. Unless many other “politicians” he has never forgot his base - the little people on the ground who don’t read political websites like this and have never visited Westminster in their lives. He is a known name amongst ordinary people in my neighbourhood and anyone I have ever spoken to about him can name at least one achievement or policy of his office. I hate to disappoint hacks who would love Johnson to win for the sake of some political tittle-tattle but ordinary Londoners know what’s at stake and they will carry Ken to his third victory this May.
4, J for Jasper?:p
From the previous thread, I don’t think Scottish independency can possibly be predicated on North Sea oil anymore - that’s so 1980s. Since we have reached peak oil in this region in the 1990s, the SNP have had to find something else. Even in the current Brent price environment it’s just not enough to run the country as the socialist utopia as Salmond wants …
Just watching the Evening Standard debate with Ken, Dianne Abbot, and Nick Ferrari. Ferrari really lets loose at Ken, Abbot is useless as ever and Ken puts up a good fight. I’m not quite sure why Boris and Paddick weren’t invited by the Standard but it is certainly well worth a watch:
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-mayor/article-23441986-details/Evening+Standard+debate+-+video+highlights/article.do
Abbot is always useless, her style of talking is to leave as many spaces as possible so she can think of what to say next, and to keep looking around the room seemingly at random.
4. Major astroturf alert
I would say Ken is marginal favourite - though agree with your repeated tip, Mike (that the odds on Boris have offered very good value). haven’t back him though, as I’m coming a cropper (all red) on this year’s Championship and trying to recover position.
Playing around with poll release dates doesn’t smack of security.
I think the electoral arithmetic marginally favours Boris, in terms of greater Tory strength in London, weaker Labour voting intention etc. Couple that with organisational ability and a hint of Ken fatigue and you get to the position that as long as Boris is close to Ken in polls then he probably has a slight edge, if he is ahead in polls as seems likely then that edge is greater.
3
Does that mean you should never criticise the press, the fourth estate, ‘Power without responsibility’
See a load of protesters have climbed onto the roof of HP, protesting at the third runway at Heathrow, will Zac join them ?
4) 9)
As most of you know, I’m no astroturfer, and stick to discussion about betting as a rule but I think 4) make the most important point of all here. Ken Livingstone does have huge name recognition and, like it or not is the “champion” of ethnic minorities and the poor (although this is clearly debatable).
The proportion of these major groups that turn up at the polls is going to be THE key deciding factor. Ken’s fully on board with this of course. I’m sure the londoners among us have seen the major campaign to get people to unregister Londoners to vote - huge adverts on buses and tubes. That is the means by which Ken hopes to win. I’m not convinced that these group are well represented by pollster’s databases either, and there remain millions here that only use cellphones - that some polls do not reflect.
I’m not too sure anyone has made much gelt betting against Red Ken. Boris is always entertaining but supporters will be aware there’s the danger that he teeters on the cusp of a major gaffe every time those blond locks appear on the idiot box.
IMO if Ken keeps within 4 points of Boris then it’ll be a third term for the Great Newt.
Sorry above should read “to get unregistered Londoners registered to vote”
15. I’m not convinced that another Boris gaffe will help Ken. If Boris can survive revelations of being involved in a criminal conspiracy, and of lying and cheating to his wife, then not much else is going to damage him.
Ken’s best hope is to stick to his agenda for London and to dissect Boris’ agenda which so far is looking pretty thin. Rather than downplaying his faults, Boris is hoping to ride them to victory. Ken’s best chance is to persuade voters to ‘get serious’ over what the real differences between his agenda and Boris’ actually are.
15 - Few politicians are capable of galvanising core Conservative voters like Ken though. Add to that organisational differences and the fact that Boris has equal name recognition to Ken I would therefore dispute that if Ken is behind he can win.
16. Exactly, Political Capital. It is ordnary people who will decide this election not hacks. Sorry guys!
Meanwhile the “Daily Telegraph” give the nod to Obama in last nights debate :
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/02/27/wuspols127.xml
And despite the headline “Clinton Hammers Obama” the “Gruntfutock” indicates that Hillary failed to land a blow :
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/feb/27/uselections2008.hillaryclinton
19 is that Grasper commenting?
“Boris has equal name recognition to Ken”
Ha Ha Ha.
Isn’t anyone apart from Political Capital reading what I wrotte?
NO ONE from ordinary Londoner estates or deprived areas knows anything about Boris Johnson!
He will never be able to connect with them, nor does he want to.
Looks like some time for fun and games at PMQs over security at Westminster.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7266512.stm
Who let them have the passes?
Brewers, government ministers and drinking sessions, inability to arrange.
How was the “second preference” question phrased?
Was it a forced choice between Ken and Boris, or were interviewees given an unprompted choice?
I don’t understand how after the second preferences the total is not 100%.
22 - “NO ONE from ordinary Londoner estates or deprived areas knows anything about Boris Johnson!”
J, you are so right. Boris must be one of the the least recognised politicans around…
17/18 Tory Troll/James. I confess Boris is doing better than I expected. However I feel that as the race comes down to the wire many voters will realize the importance of the decision and regale from Boris.
Second preferences will also come to Ken’s aid as in previous elections.
25. You may recognise him through spending all your time on websites like this. Ordinary people going about their daily business don’t. And on that note, I’m going to work!
15,20 You’re back!
25 - Yes, ordinary people have only heard of Ken, no “ordinary person” has ever heard of Boris who has never been on TV or magazines or in the Sun.
15 Interesting Jack that you have moderated your views a little. I seem to recall that you shared my opinion that Ken was pretty certain to win. I’ve moderated my own views. I now think it’s likely to be very close and Blondilocks could even win.
This is starting to look like a good betting heat. Advice? Wait for Ken’s price to ease a bit and start buying in at anything above 1.80. He’s close to that now.
Well, as someone who’s derided Boris’s chances I agree it’s obviously getting close. The MORI poll is useful as an indication of the (modest) effect of second preferences, suggesting that the YouGov lead should be seen as 3%ish. I still think Ken will do it, but that’s just a gut feeling that may be influenced by a personal difficulty in understanding Boris’s appeal as potential Mayor.
I hesitate to disagree with Jack W, but AFAIK second preferences last time split pretty evenly between Ken and Sh*gger Norris, and I would expect them to do so again.
Ken’s problem is that Boris’s heartlands will turn out at 40-45% while his own will do well to reach 30%. This election is Boris’s to lose - by saying that London has too many buses (as the “Evening Standard” thinks), or parks, or some such idiocy - and I think Bozza is applying himself in a way we haven’t seen previously.
27. What relaxed hours they keep at the GLA offices.
Only if Kens base goes out to vote. I think it is becoming Boris’s to win, not Kens to lose.
31.Like you I’m struggling to understand what sort of person would want Boris for mayor? I can only think it’s people who either think a bad mayor doesn’t matter or people from outer London who do their shopping in places like Sevenoaks and are unaffected by the the mayor’s decisions. I agree with J that if the contest was about name recognition it would be a Ken landslide.
28. Jack’s Lazarus and I claim my £5!
Betfair much closer than other bookies - some decent arbing available if only the spread would tighten. Still only £55k punted on the market so far.
30. I agree, PtP - I was fairly sure Ken would do it, now I’m not so sure at all. Using my Sean Thomas patented political intuit-o-meter, i just sense a change in the London wind. Even from Bangkok.
I don’t think much of this is down to Bozza’s brilliant campaigning, more that Ken was probably in a more fragile position than we all realised: heavily dependent on a weak and divided opposition, and a supine or uninterested press.
Now he’s facing real press hostility, a high profile opponent, a whiff of sleaze and scandal, and he only has lacklustre backing from his own party. And London is probably swinging to the right anyway, as is the rest of Britain - England especially.
Moreover Ken’s reliance on narrow interest groups can be self-defeating. OK he befriended the Muslims by inviting Qaradawi, but how many gays did he alienate with that same gesture?
Boris is relatively untainted by all this. It’s particularly interesting how all the “piccaninny” stuff hasn’t affected Bozza’s popularity at all, despite the Guardian’s huffing and puffing.
I wonder if we are seeing the beginning of the end of the tyranny of political correctness. Hope so.
35. Class war warning !! Beep Beep !!
re 35. I suggest that you stick with the Oscars.
Your comment 1 on my thread of May 26th 2005 is one that still sticks.
New ’serious’ Boris is a major headache for Ken. He has name recognition at least equal to the Mayor and is focusing on matters that matter - take a bow BJ’s media team. Housing and crime in particular resonate strongly with J’s “ordinary Londoner estates or deprived areas”. Ken has manifestly failed to tackle the housing crisis, and the surge in violent crime and gangsterism has occurred on his watch. A bleat about neighbourhood policing and PCSOs or increased police numbers will not wash - it’s results not processes that matter. BJ’s third area, transport, is more Ken’s home turf, but by focusing on bus safety, conductors, bendy buses and routemasters, motorcycles in buslanes and cyclists, Boris is building a constituency that could trump those who see more buses and congestion zones as Ken’s positive achievements.
Maybe most importantly, Ken’s pandering to his ‘core’ is only likely to push up participation rates by BJ’s ‘core’. Turnout in K&C is likely to be 60%+ and anyone with a car over 205g or whatever it is will be down the polling station at opening time together with anyone who is concerned about their money being spent on cronyism. This anti-Ken coalition is big enough on its own, but add to it a pro-Boris gaiety of life group and you’ve got a recipe for change.
My bet would be: First round… BJ 39&, KL 32%, BP 17%, Others 12%. Second round… Boris 52, Ken 48.
Oh, and welcome home, Jack W, you were missed.
9,33,35. Harry. Why don’t you try contributing something other than your home-spun analysis of other posters? You might even surprise yourself by saying something interesting!
39. Mike. That’s what’s known as ‘a classic’!
39. lol!
Rogerdamus strikes again.
32 IA. Ken had a 28,000 edge in second preferences.
30 PtP. In betting I follow the evidence not my prejudices!
28 Jonathan. See 176, four thread back.
40. Serious Boris has so far managed to what few thought was possible, make him look a threat to ken. We are now at the point where Boris could win, he has some good policies, good adveritising and good name recognition. Ken has managed to offend many groups of people, and his aggresive defence of everything he does has made him look he has stuff to hide.
I think the much more obvious retort to J’s nonsense is that Boris doesnt need many if any votes from London’s most deprived areas.
Need less to say roger, I struggle to see how anyone other than ethnic minorities could bring themsleves to vote for the Newt..thats the point of elections its not us partisans that swing it.
41. Nah Roger, why bother?
I’ll never get up the standard of incisive and prescient analysis that you produce - you know, the sort of stuff like comment 1 on the thread of May 26th 2005.
23- Nobody neccesarily needs to have given them passes at all- you can turn up to parliament whenever you like and get a guest sticker, which is what they’re wearing. Of course it’d be easier for them to have got where they did with a passholder escort, but it’s actually not very hard at all to get where they did without one.
41. Thats something you still havent managed.
43 - Seant, I was playing around with a few titles last night as here, probably nothing you haven’t mulled over yourself but you never know.
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/02/26/ken-falls-5-behind-boris-in-new-london-poll/#comment-601887
Whenever I think that Londoners can’t possibly be stupid enough to vote in Boris, I remind myself of Hartlepool:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/1965569.stm
51
Assume that was the Labour mayor?
51. Good point. But I always thought that had something to do with the very special characteristics of people from the North East like wearing skimpy clothes in a snow storm.
Politics is tribal and people will vote for whoever is wearing the rosette of their party (See Nick Ps post on a thread yesterday)
The floating voters are not tribal, but in a mayoral election how likely are they too vote? How many of the Lib dems who vote for BP will switch to Ken and how many to Boris?
Meanwhile II …. Marc Ambinder of “theatlantic.com” assesses whether there’s scope to jump aboard the “Clinton Comeback Wagon” :
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/02/the_hrc_can_come_back.php
52. No, Drummond was an independent.
51,54.
Oh be fair. They were sticking their middle finger up at the establishment forcing on them something they didn’t want. And in the procees taking the mick out of themselves.
You must all know the ‘monkey’ story that has been used to ridicule them for generations.
[15] - Boris strikes me as the sort of politician that the public has decided to like, come what may. Any “gaffe” will be seen simply as “Boris being Boris” and therefore not hurt him.
[18] - “Few politicians are capable of galvanising core Conservative voters like Ken though.” And yet, as Sean Fear has discussed, many Tory assembly voters voted for Ken for the mayoralty. The Tory core didn’t beat Ken before and it won’t this time.
I wonder how much Ken is dreading Brown’s support on the campaign trail?
So politics isn’t tribal then?
Boris Johnson is much misunderstood, and underestimated, especially by his political enemies.
His image is carefully (very carefully) crafted and he has made himself the perfect antidote to Red Ken.
So where Ken has for all these years been deeply intense, dominant, ideologically driven and arrogant; Boris is setting his stall as hands-off, irreverent, pragmatic and ever so slightly un-PC as well as being very self effacing.
I think London is in a mood for a bit less politics and a bit more fun.
50. Thanks - I did indeed see those. I checked through the thread!
I’m jolly keen on your idea of “Daniel Prime” as a nom de plume -or indeed variations thereof: Jonathan Prime, Tom Prime, etc.
It works well with the genre.
As for titles, James Burdett hinted at “Of Human Blood”, which is also rather good.
I’ve handed that on to my publishers, along with yr suggestion. Let’s see what they say. With a bit of luck I will be lunching you and James B at the Graaaachah in the near future.
KappunkKAP!
Though any more ideas are very welcome, of course….
Anyone know who Ken has appointed as his ad agency? Apparently he was looking for a good headline and someone suggested “It’s Me or Boris”!
Well it works for me!!!
Just in case you don’t know the origin of Hartlepool’s monkey…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monkey_hanger
62. That should guarantee a Bozza victory then
62.
Well Roger, if he wants a genuinely toe-curling Obama rip-off, it’s got to be “Yes We Ken!”
Latest Quinnipiac poll for pennsylvania has Hillary’s lead now only 6% in this state.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5go2sy0SV4BVuekAPmo_FA8d21IXgD8V2K7G81
re 65. Brilliant.
65. Change You Ken Believe In?
62. It’s me or boris will just get people to vote boris in order to annoy ken. When I was at sixth form the most popular lad tried that, although he didnt reckon that in fact the other lad was very nice just not pushy, and in creating his campaign he managed to lose via landslide. The whinging was incredible!
Ken is obviously worried, his tactics smack of someone who is afraid of losing and who doesn’t have an April Surprise lined up. I have consistently thought that Ken would win (in my case with regret, because I would love to see a Boris mayorship), but like others I am starting to waver.
My impression is that Boris spent the end of last year doing some hard thinking, and that he has a clear and detailed strategy that he is now following. Equally, I get the impression that Ken had a clear and detailed strategy, but that he is worried that it so far simply isn’t producing the intended results.
65. I go with the toe-curling! (But very sharp nontheless!)
40.Enjoyed that analysis of the campaign, particularly the reference to the “pro-Boris gaiety of life group”.
66 With 25% saying they may yet change their minds, it would be fascinating to have known how they broke down. My guess would be that the majority of those potential changers would be currently in the Hillary column, given that is the way most other states have gone in February.
On the YouGov poll. It looks as if the classic thing is happening and people are switching from Labour to Lib Dem as an election approaches. It’s 5% off Ken and onto Lib Dem - although it’s not necessarily the same 5%, it may well be.
In that case, chances are Ken is still second choice for those 5% of voters, and it won’t affect the overall result at all.
I don’t know if that applies to the YouGov poll.
Why don’t the pollsters all take and publish second preferences as well? First preferences alone are just not very useful for the Mayorals.
50, 61. Scrap that - just got an email from my publishers. They think Daniel Prime is a good name… for an historical novelist.
Instead they have gone for a name I gave them ages ago: Tom Knox.
So that’s who I am. Tom Knox. Has a sort of Scottish religious thriller writer feel.
Yikes. But it is short, striking and punchy, so I can see why they like it.
They also nixed “Of Human Blood” and want to call it “The Jericho Vault” - again another idea I gave them weeks back. They don’t lack for obviousness, these people.
Does anyone like “The Jericho Vault”? Would they buy it? Not sure I would, even if it was my idea in the first place.
Gah. This is hard. Need a better title, quick!
65 “Yes we Ken” - a message targeted for those in Chelsea and Belgravia worried about their “hice prices”?
(And I’m still waiting for Obama to reap the whirlwind with the disgruntled Bob the Builder generation….)
75 Why jericho? Why Vault?
Cameron trying to be serious on PMQs. He has to trot that one out once in a while.
77. Just coz there is a secret museum vault at one point in the book - and I can call the vault whatever I like - so I could call it “the Jericho Vault”.
But it seems a bit tacked on. To say the least.
Nonetheless it has that Biblical, mysterious, adventuresome, treasure-ish, code-y kind of feel they like.
My publisher has now given me 48 hours to come up with a title. So at least i’m not under any pressure or anything.
Help!
79 Key locations?
75 - told you you needed one or two high-scoring Scrabble letters, Sean!
Helix Of Fate? The Tainted Fruit?
Bit of a cock up there from Dave on allowances
Did Cameron just say “we make promises and we don’t keep them” or did I imagine it?
The Eden Complex
Good point though on US style TV debates
The most interesting thing for me is how much unfriendly noise MPs were making when David Cameron was raising issues about their terms and conditions. That is going to play terribly on TV for the reputation of backbenchers.
Key locations:
Turkish Kurdistan
Iraqi Kurdistan
Istanbul
London
The Lake District
Dublin and environs
Isle of Man
Picardy
Tel Aviv
The Hellfire caves of West Wycombe
Brown is more confident than last year :-), but back to asking questions again
The Sinai Solution
Clegg now a figure of fun. Even Brown making fun of him.
Oh dear, and so soon. Who’s next then?
Cameron was in danger of flopping until he pulled it round on Europe and TV debates.
88. Brown asking a question when Cameron was on his last, so can’t answer anyway. That’s clever and shows how useful parliament is, Gordo.
Nobody is on form today. They all seem very tentative
65 Jack P. “Yes We Ken” - It’ll work for London Scottish voters.
66 Goupillon. Ouch. That’ll hurt Hillary. Small sample, but the trend is clear.
Clegg, oh dear…
88. brown v funny back to clegg tho
88. He doesn’t have any answers.
Much more enjoyable this week after a few dire PMQs. Labour and Conservatives desperate to knock Clegg off his stride.
Guessing it doesn’t fit as a thriller title, but I always thought Babel On would be a good punning title
87 “The Hellfire Vault”?
I’d buy it…
79. Biblical would seem the way to go. Lucifer’s Birthright. The Hellfire Descent.
99 ’tis the obvious The … Vault title.
Wasn’t the hellfire club a New York thing in the 20s?
87 - Suggested it once but worth a repeat… “The Ottoman Helix”
Agree with IA re second preference votes. Remarkably, the MORI poll implies that Boris actually does better on the second round, with a Ken lead of 3% dropping to 2% after second preference distribution, which given that most of those voters are Lib Dems is indicative of how Ken is coming to be viewed by those in the centre or of independent mind. I backed Bozza some time ago and am sticking with that.
Go for the Harry potter title template.
Tom Knox and the Hellfire Vault.
Is there a market on Clegg weeks? A double with Kevin Keegan would be fun…
Gimmickgate is a PR disaster.
103 James B. “The Ottoman Helix” - sounds like a posh snail kebab !
…………….
The Iowa exchanges have responded very badly overnight to Hillary’s debate performance and the continuing poor polls :
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Nomination08_quotes.html
107 - “Gimmickgate is a PR disaster.”
For who?
gimmickgate? Anyhoo, Brown yet again resorting to getting his MP’s to try and shout down Cameron, then having the speaker finally tell them to shut up and allowing Cameron to take good shot at them!
Is it the Tories or Labour who are making the most noise to drown out Clegg? It isn’t the first time this has happened, and Gorbals Mick seems slow to deal with this.
Brown made a joke. Must be a first. He almost looked relaxed when he sat down.
Disappointed by absence of tractor output statistics. Kauffman’s statement/question wasn’t a surprise, but planted friendly question from sycophantic MPs jar. What was the point of Hopkin’s question?
Gimmickgate? Not seen anything on news about this since last Friday.
Whilst we anoraks muse over every nuance and the detritus of the US Presidential campaign, ordinary Joe USA will be contemplating the prospect of $4 a gallon for fuel - Now that’s an issue for Obama and McCain to wrestle with :
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/02/27/business/26gasweb.php
The YouGov detailed data on the mayoral poll is now out and one striking feature is the 52-31% Boris split amongst the over-55s. In terms of weighting in the poll this group only amounts to just over a quarter of the sample - yet, according to some estimates, they represent more than half of all those who vote.
If Ken has lost it on this scale with the over-55s he’s dead.
http://www.yougov.com/uk/archives/pdf/Mayoral%20Election%20Feb%2008.pdf
Brown basically wants to dismiss Cameron like he does Clegg, he wants to make him seem irrelevant, but has found to his cost he just cant do it. Any time he has tried to make Cameron look daft, it has just been turned back on him pretty sharpish.
114 - Ouch.
I think all the leaders slipped up today. Cameron was on dangerously thin ice, especially with the ‘can’t keep promises’ line: if Brown had been quicker on his feet he could have reeled off many instances of Cameron going back on his word.
But Brown’s appearance was dangerous for him purely because it looked like he was supporting the status quo: primacy of PMQs, expenses issues left to be dealt with by MPs, etc, etc. It looks a bit like he’s not really bothered about the issue and if coupled with a “he is the past,” Obama-esque narrative from Cameron, that might prove toxic.
Clegg… well. It just goes to show what a stupid move the Lib Dems made yesterday. He has now had his Ming moment at PMQs. He’ll recover simply because age will not be considered to be a factor and the membership are unlikely to be too bothered. But when Gordon Brown can start thinking up good jokes about you you’ve got to hold your hands up and admit there’s something wrong. Lib Dem recovery looks as far away now as it did under Ming.
117. Brown isn’t fast on his feet, thats why he doesn’t want a televised debate, because he knows both Cameron and (maybe) Clegg would quite easily be able to trip him up.
I don’t suppose Londoners are any more or less moral than the rest of us as a whole but it is an awful sign of the times that any Party is able to countenance putting forward a candidate who publicly and shamelessly cuckold’s his spouse. ‘Nothing to do with policies’? Rubbish! A person who ignores solemn vows with impunity will change his policies more often than he changes his socks if and when it suits him. Consequently, to vote for such a person is to vote for someone with no policies at all. My opinion on this also goes for certain Lib Dem and Labour politicians too.
SeanTomKnox, how significant is the Isle of Man in your magnum opus? Its symbol, the three legged thingy which always stands upright, is called a Triskelion, which does well on the Scrabble Letter front. And it will also look good on the cover, because it will be almost like a swastika (and everyone knows that a book with a swastika and a semi naked lady on the cover will sell loads of copies.)
So, Jericho Triskelion, or the Triskelion Vault, or something like that?
Just want to draw attention to a council by-election in Sutton tomorrow Cheam Ward.
Good test of public opinion.
Should get around 4000 people voting looking at the postal votes already in.
Cons should hold but previous incumbent was disqualified by standards biard and the LDs are running a fairly negative and nasty campaign against the candidate.
UKIP standing for first time in the Ward and are expected to pick up around 10pct.
Should be good poll and pointer for the GLAs in May
Is Rik W involved
O/T
You pays your omney and you takes your choice!!
Jitters return to the banking sectors amid rumours of an emergency Bank of England meeting with one of the clearing banks in trouble and a cautious outlook from mortgage giant HBOS.
HBOS tumbled 65p to 640p despite modest improvements in profits and dividend, while Alliance & Leicester at 574p and Barclays 500p fell 26p and 20p.
Lloyds TSB 469p retreated 14p to 468p as a block of 30 million shares changed hands at 467p..
Royal Bank of Scotland shed 14p to 399p ahead of tomorrow’s figures and profit-taking cut 26p from yesterday’s high-flier Standard Chartered at £16.78.
122-No he is in Reading now.
How long does it take the BBC to tell us there has been an earthquake and nobody got hurt.
125 - Quite a bit of time one imagines. In a similar vein the Daily Mail today, 9 pages in and I was still searching for some proper news. After 10 pages a comment piece and an editorial on plastic bags I was almost beginning to give up hope!
“Hundreds of Thousands of Volts”, perhaps (as opposed to Millions of Women).
Clever of Brown to comment about the antics of the HOC roof protesters - earned him a spot on the news. Haven’t seen Cameron so far.
65.
That must be: (cue music)
Boris the Bonker.
Boris the Bonker.
Can he F** it?
“Yes We Ken!”
128 - He’s PM. If he has to work as hard as Cameron or Clegg to get a spot on the news then heaven help him.
128. Of course Brown never took part in demonstrations in his student/CND days, did he?
123 “rumours of an emergency Bank of England meeting with one of the clearing banks in trouble” If true = curtains for Darling.
[77] “The Jericho Vault” by Tom Knox - I think I’ve read it already, doesn’t it have freemasons and secret codes in it?
Go for a Cornish name- that “Tre Pol and Pen” thing, Sean, at least it’s you. Title’s harder without knowing more about the book (is this a potboiler or the “War and Peace” of the 21st century” - but “The Last Day But One” strikes me as suitably vague and ooh-er-creepy all at once…
132 - I suspect that if the rumour was given any credence then the FTSE would be more than 40 points off.
124.
“he is in Reading now.
”
I thought he was still on A…B…C….?
132, Darling won’t last too long. The problem is that when he goes his replacement (the evil Balls) will be even worse.
Unusual PMQs today. Nice to see the Lib Dems back.
I hope we get a TV debate pre-General Election but can’t see it happening, unless Gordon’s 10 points down.
130. It’s usually DC that engineers a news soundbite.
I don’t think Brown was even asked about the protests, he just shoe-horned it in. He turned the tables on DC in a small way. It’s pretty insignificant but at least it’s signs of life.
127 …. or maybe “Don’t blame me, it’s not my vault”
Joe Klein of “Time/CNN” calls the debate for Obama :
http://www.time-blog.com/swampland/2008/02/the_democratic_debate_1.html
Back on topic now folks
Police probe Boris Johnson over cigar ‘theft’
By Andrew Pierce
Last Updated: 12:54pm GMT 27/02/2008
Scotland Yard has been accused of wasting taxpayers’ money by launching an investigation into the alleged theft by Boris Johnson of a cigar case from the home of Saddam Hussein’s deputy prime minister five years ago.
137: But DC’s soundbites score points off Brown, Brown’s did what exactly?
timmo (121) - I don’t think you can extrapolate any conclusions from a by-election caused by a disqualification.
140, out of interest, what happened to Tariq Aziz? Has he asked for the cigar case back?
ConHome says that Conservatives now have 44% of councillors, more than Labour and LDs combined.
Conhome state that LDs likely to lose 100 councillors in May.
http://tinyurl.com/2tpkqy
scroll down in page fr interesting graphs.
140. Cue tomorrows Daily Mirror : ” New Cuban Crisis “
140.Obviously no one at Scotland Yard reads the Telegraph.
The London Mayor contest is going to be the first in England where second prefs matter. Maybe this is a true turning point. In Scotland it has been shown that second prefs tend to split evenly except with Lib Dems. If Ken is more than a couple of percent behind on the first vote then my guess is he is out.
The biggest advantage for Boris is that the young like him. While they may not vote in large numbers it makes him cool. Look at Youtube and Boris’ tackle of the Germans at football gets massive exposure. For Ken who is used to fighting establishment this must be a difficult campaign.
I think Kosovo is a critical moment for Europe. The EC looks powerless and leaderless. In the vacuum strong entities such as Russia are thriving. Meanwhile back in the UK Brown is desperately trying to sort out the mess he was left by Blair.
at least it’s signs of life.
more like the twitching of a slaughtered animal, methinks.
Michael Goodwin of the “Daily News” says Hillary moaned her way to an indifferent performance in the debate :
http://www.nydailynews.com/opinions/2008/02/27/2008-02-27_too_much_whining_ruined_whatever_points_.html
Mother Jones of the MojoBlog says Hillary failed to alter the dynamic of the campaign and left Obama in the clear :
http://www.motherjones.com/mojoblog/archives/2008/02/7359_obama_and_clint.html
……………………
Trying to find some positive responses for Hillary but the media appear to have called the debate a winning draw or clear win for Obama.
re 140, it takes Scotland Yard 5 years to read the Telegraph.
Is this some record in the speed of their crime investigations? Or do the long sentences confuse them?
Yes you finally got him “bang to rights guv”.
So a note to all criminals feeling the need to confess. Just write it in the Telegraph and you get 5 years before the rozzers will write to you.
142 Iain- “I don’t think you can extrapolate any conclusions from a by-election caused by a disqualification.”
Depends on the result!!
Why Democrat some Superdelegates are gravitating to Obama :
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0208/8711.html
136. How about a Cameron-Clegg televised debate, with an empty podium for Gordon should he decline to turn up?
I think both Cameron and Clegg would see advantage in it: Cameron could use it to highlight Gordon’s cowardice, whilst Clegg could use it to draw contrasts with Cameron and portray the Lib Dems as the real progressive party. It could actually make for an interesting, substantive debate - which a Brown-Cameron or three-leader debate wouldn’t.
ftse now down 76 points..
153, surely a lame duck for Gordon?
I’d prefer that to none at all.
sorry 154 refers to 134
[123] The definition of a clearing bank here could be quite broad… Several names are in the frame, and plenty have been discussed here in the past. Good interview with my old boss, Hector Sants on Today this morning .http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/today/index.shtml?survey=no&url=www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/today/index.shtml&site=today&js=yes
As for London Mayor-[60] Marcus, while I agree that Ken is not fun, I don’t think he is exactly serious either- Tweedleken and Tweedlebor and both are pretty ho-hum characters…
“Clegg could use it to draw contrasts with Cameron”
You could call the programme “Attack of the clones”.
158. A better one could be used to sum up the hype about Brown being able to destroy cameron before he became PM, ‘the phantom menace’.
159. Blair-lite vs Cameron-lite. I’m sure it would be fascinating.
157. Unlike ‘plank’ Paddick, of course.
147 - Although oddly enough, Mike’s link earlier indicates that by far Boris’ strongest support is among the oldest age groups (although he is liked slightly more by the young than the middle aged). I think you underestimate the ability of the young to distinguish likeability from electability.
The most impressed in many ways have least at stake in May - key issues for older people like health and pensions really have nothing to do with the Mayor, while older people aren’t on the whole that bothered about bus fares (they have passes), affordable housing (they have houses) and so on.
Has anyone else noticed that Nick Clegg goes weirdly stiff when he asks a question at PMQs?
He get’s up, adopts an unnaturally aggressive pose and then thrusts his arm about. I reckon that he thinks he looks strong and dynamic when he does it. He’s trying too hard.
To my mind he just looks odd and resembles a ’80s body popper. Would he more at home standing on a stool in a town centre?
161 - At least he isn’t a professional politician who has lived his life with nothing more in mind than building a political career and profile. He won’t win of course but Ken v Bozza is a pretty grim indictment of modern professional politics.
Marginally O/T
The silly season is well and truly upon us !
But soft! What light through yonder window breaks? Out in Salt Lake City, in an interview with the Deseret Morning News, Josh Romney leaves open the possibility that his father might get back in the race:
Josh Romney called speculation that his father could be back in the race as either a vice presidential candidate or even at the top of the ticket as the GOP’s presidential candidate “possible. Unlikely, but possible.”
163. Wasn’t standing on stool a habit ‘enjoyed’ by a MP from Hants?
163. It’s a mistake sitting where he does, too. It makes him look like he’s deliberately trying to sit further away from the two main parties, as if trying to avoid their wrath or something.
Normally I take little note of self selecting ‘polls’ but with almost 128,000 votes the on-line result on msnbc is of interest.
Obama ‘won’ the debate 64%/21%. 14% undecided. 30% more likely to vote Obama, 11% Clinton and 50% decided.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23354735/
153 time for the Hattersley tub-of-lard to make a special guest appearence…
re 27 well the obvious answer to that is for Boris to get shagging more - that will guarantee him front page of the Sun and Mirror and it never did Norris any harm. All publicity is good publicity, so they say.
163 Perhaps it’s the equivalent of Brown’s left handed inverted claw, which he taps repeatedly on the despatch box, thus concealing his otherwise trembling hand. Clegg, by standing in a stiff pose, can thus probably avoid the likes of his colleague, Vince Cable’s trembling hand tightly gripping a violently flapping piece of papper, from which he would attempt to read his questions.
I could never understand why Cable wasn’t able to memorise such questions and recite these with his hands firmly clasped behind his back, if necessary.
166. No - he used kneel under a stool, surely?
171 - Do you mean Cable… or Campbell?
173 Both if I recall.
With the recent YouGov and Mori polls, we’re fortunate enough that there was a YouGov mayoral poll in February last time round. That time, first preferences were:
——————–
YouGov Feb 2004
Ken: 46%
Norris: 31%
Hughes: 15%
Ken lead 15%
by May, it was
YouGov May 2004
Ken: 41%
Norris: 27%
Hughes: 17%
Ken lead 14%
—————-
The MORI poll in June on the eve of election gave (first preference-wise):
Ken: 39%
Norris: 27%
Hughes: 17%
Ken lead 12%
The actual result was:
Ken: 35.7%
Norris: 28.2%
Hughes: 14.8%
Ken lead 7.5%
(All on first pref votes, of course)
If Ken has gone from a YouGov lead of 15% last time when 4 months out from the election to a deficit of 5% at the same point this time, then surely that points to a hell of a fight on his hands at the very least? There has to be a very real chance that Boris could lead after the first round - at which point the second pref’s of the LDs and Others come into play.
Also, Ken’s actual first round lead seemed to be noticeably smaller than any poll predicted - which should be a warning sign to Ken backers this time around.