Should Hillary’s political obituaries be put on hold?
March 3rd, 2008
Could Texas and Ohio dramatically change the narrative?
After an extraordinary and intensive onslaught on Barack Obama on a wide range of fronts there’s just an indication tonight that those who’ve been preparing Hillary’s political obituaries might have to put their drafts on hold.
For when a range of polls move in the same direction in the final hours before an election then it’s normally an indication that something might be happening. And that’s been the news today on the eve of the key primaries in Texas and Ohio.
As the new site, Taegan Goddard’s Political Insider reports “…Several new polls out today give the Clinton campaign some reason for hope. In Ohio, three new polls give Clinton the lead — SurveyUSA, Public Policy Polling and Quinnipiac — of which two actually show Obama stalling. In Texas, two polls shows a statistical tie — Zogby and SurveyUSA — while a third, Public Policy Polling, gives Clinton the lead. Polls haven’t seemed very reliable during this primary season, but today’s numbers may change the narrative as we await Tuesday’s results.”
For as Barack Obama has appeared to be closer to the nomination the scrutiny has got more intense and there might be a hint in the latest numbers that his remarkable momentum might just be being stalled.
This is the round-up of the days polls from Real Clear Politics and there is enough there to cause some doubts within the Obama camp.
In the nomination betting there’s been a slight move back to Hillary.
We could be in for an exciting night.
Mike Smithson
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you might be right Mike. A week ago it was doom and gloom for her campaign. Another poll released in Texas has her fractionally ahead.
http://www.khou.com/news/local/stories/khou080303_tnt_belopollmonday.1c1978fa.html
Its a brilliant call Mike
Hillary WILL be the Dem candidate
Then its the 1980 experience for Dem………
Why Obama should reject public funding:
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/02/why-obama-should-reject-spendi.php
Here is a guide to the 2008 US elections, 04.11.2008:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._presidential_election,_1980
Yes, I think Clinton will win both Texas and Ohio. That will help her disproportionately by breaking the media narrative that’s been running and reinforcing itself for several weeks and make a lot of people think again.
Face it, all Obama has is the momentum, looking at just the raw numbers he is not ahead by anything. He has a lot more to lose and has to keep the narrative going.
The real story ought to be that Clinton is still competitive despite the number of losses and the negative coverage.
6. He’s ahead by 160 pledged delegates. In which states is Clinton going to make up the lead, and by how many delegates in each case?
6 - Hmm… He is ahead by over 900,000 in the popular vote. He is ahead by over 150 in pledged delegates. His ahead by 100 including the supers. Hardly ‘not ahead by anything’.
Clinton wins keep her in the race, give herself another chance to make her case and increases the scrutiny on Obama. However even wins in the upper single digits in both OH and TX would leave her with a mountain to climb. She has a chance but Obama is still the big favourite.
OT
something on BBC news about Lee Jasper and foreign trips?
Clinton outperforming expectations has been on the cards for a little while. Without wishing to beat my own drum too much, I did point out a couple of days ago that contrary to what some might believe reading this site, she was still polling close to Obama in the nationals. That doesn’t mean she’s going to win - I don’t think she will - but it does mean she may well win a few more states and certainly isn’t on course for a trouncing tomorrow. I still expect her to be in the race by the time it moves on to Wyoming on Saturday.
SBS at 64 on the last thread, about what polling information there is on whether referendum-wanters would change their polling preference over it:
There doesn’t seem to have been a question on it in the 10-constituency “referendum”, but via Anthony Wells, it turns out that the IWAR folks commissioned an ICM poll of Lib Dem voters from 2005 and found:
The poll also finds that Liberal Democrats want the party leadership to either offer MPs a free vote on the Treaty or whip MPs to vote for a referendum. 71% said the leadership should allow a free vote, and 21% said that MPs should be made to vote for a referendum on the Treaty. Only 2% backed Nick Clegg’s current plan to whip MPs to abstain on the key vote.
Asked how they would react if the Liberal Democrats voted against a referendum, 31.8% said they would be “less likely to vote for them” again and 7.5% said they would be more likely to vote for them. Asked how strongly they felt about this, they broke down as follows:
3.5% Will definitely vote for them
4.4% More likely to vote for them
58.7% Would make no diference
21.6% Less likely to vote for them
10.2% Will definitely not vote for them
Of those who would be less likely to vote Liberal Democrat, most would switch their vote to the Conservatives, followed by Labour and the Green Party.
can understand people saying clinton has the momentum in ohio now, but texas? has been a statistical tie for the last 20+ polls coming out of there, any movement has been noise and people trying to spot a pattern are just applying their own wishes on the data
12. Is it momentum defined by the media narrative rather than the polls?
8. Pledged NYT actually has him ahead by 91 and AP 110, rather than 150. I’m not sure you can call the superdelegates yet. As for the popular vote, well in the absence of Florida I’m not sure anyone will pay the popular any attention, not least with non-Democrats involved.
Looking at all those polls together it’s clear that where Obama leads it’s wafer thin. Where Clinton leads some of them are now by widening margins. She has a late swing to her.
If she does pull off Texas and Ohio tomorrow (which I think I now anticipate, though it could be very tight in TX) then it’s a great fightback for someone who has been written off.
I agree with Mike’s thread in every detail … but then I probably would! It’s going to be fascinating this.
8/
<>
100 delegates is a “mountain”?
Like I said 100 is not significant in these kinds of elections
13/David Herdson:
Yes that’s what I meant. Obama’s major advantage is the media narrative which I don’t see how it could continue the same if Clinton wins both states tomorrow
9 Jasper trips to New York and Kingston over which there’s doubt about the purpose and who paid. Video link: http://news.bbc.co.uk/player/nol/newsid_7270000/newsid_7275900/7275971.stm?bw=bb&mp=wm&news=1&nol_storyid=7275971&bbcws=1
Also looks like The Times won’t be backing Ken: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/leading_article/article3479019.ece
15. It’s 160 delegates, and you are yet to explain in which states she can catch up. Provide us with a plausible catch-up strategy and I’m sure people will listen.
Democratic Candidate/ Betfair
I’m making a market 1.22 / 1.26 1000×1000 if anyone is after some liquidity. Market closes in 25 mins cos I’m off to bed.
16. In that case, I’d agree with you. The problem is for the Democrats that while it would change the way people viewed the race, as others have rightly pointed out, it wouldn’t change the numbers much: Obama would still be in the lead.
Tuesday is the last big day in the primary race. After this, it’s dribs and drabs through to mid-June, and after Wyoming at the weekend and Mississippi the Tuesday following, there’s a six-week gap. If Clinton does win 3-1 (btw, why is she so far behind in Vermont, which on the face of it should be her kind of state?), a couple of reversals a little later on are unlikely to be enough to force her out, especially given her national polling and recent fundraising. Then what? She’s unlikely to overhaul Obama’s total but is strong enough to keep going. Time to look at McCain for the presidency?
14, 15 - To overcome this deficit Hillary needs to win states big. There is just no evidence yet that she will be able to do that. Obama is making the argument that he is ahead on pledged delegate and that the supers should support him. How can Clinton counter that? The popular vote is her only route, so she needs to regain the lead. 100 not significant when delegates are allocated proportionally? It is very significant in a close contest. I’ve argued against Rod Crosby and Ukpaul who argued earlier that Obama had already won and Clinton has no chance. But it is also silly to pretend that Obama is not the clear frontrunner and likely nominee.
Also, some speculation here that Obama may have raised $70m in February. This would be incredible. The campaign has unusually not announced the figures yet. Might they be holding it back as insurance to blunt the Clinton comeback narrative (if she does well tomorrow)?
http://www.patrickruffini.com/2008/03/01/obama-70m/
18. You disagree with the New York Times and AP then? http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/delegates/index.html
NYT has his lead at 91, with AP at 110. These are still relatively slender margins when you have 981 at stake, half of which are in three states she is looking quite likely to win.
Perhaps you should be providing details of your 160 delegate source though?
I can certainly see her winning
Tomorrow represents 37% of all remaining delegates. And the Texas set-up ensures that with Texas and Ohio close, Obama will come out of tomorrow with an increased delegate lead.
It may delay the rousing chorus of the Ding Dong Song which some would hope to hear - but any swing back to Hillary is too little, too late. She didn’t fight a 50 state strategy - and that will be what finished her off. She has bled too many delegates in red states.
More on Rezko.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/mar/03/barackobama.uselections2008
22 Sorry for being so bold. I need a new keyboard so badly…
9 - yes, it looks like Lee Jasper is even more dodgy than we thought.
What’s interesting is that the revelations an exclusive by BBC London, rather than the Standard and Gilligan. If other media outlets decide to join in the exposes of Livingstone then his position could become terminal.
18/
Say she wins Texas and Ohio with around 60% (wouldn’t bet on it even odds but possible). That closes the gap by about 45-50 delegates with pure PR. Half Obama’s lead gone.
Then Mississippi, Pennsylvania, Indiana, North Carolina, Oregon, Kentucky… 320 delegates. If she builds on the momentum from tomorrow and gets a 10% (55/45) average lead with PR she’s closed the gap.
Superdelegates can still change their alliegance, she is still the preferred establishment choice, if the pledged totals started to get close they could switch sides again.
25
Just saw the piece on BBC.
The LDA refused to answer questions errrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrm.
20. Vermont is rich, educated and politically aware. There are also a lot of descendants of French Canadians there, making them more attuned to Obama’s internationalism, and a lot of English descent, making them eminently sensible.
22. I think Clinton could very feasibly get more delegates in the Texas primary, and who knows for the caucus? Obama has done much better in caucuses, and has a great ground operation, but the one caucus in a Hispanic state so far was Nevada, where Clinton did very well. I still think Obama will get most delegates in Texas, but its not impossible Clinton will get more. She’s also looking to get a few in Ohio.
25 - I think the last line in The Times article is telling - “The task for his rivals is to convince the public that they offer a credible alternative.”
This sounds like what Trevor Kavanagh said in The Sun recently - that while they don’t like Ken, they’re still not convinced by Boris. They seem to suggest that if Boris can feed them some sound policies about which they can write some articles, he’ll get the Murdoch vote. That shouldn’t be too difficult.
There is no way she will win TX and OH by 20 points. She is tied in the polls in Texas, and has a 6-7 point lead in Ohio. Best case scenario is probably a 5 point win in TX and a 14 point win in Ohio.
23. As yet, it doesn’t seem too bad for him, but to answer the question as to how Hillary can win: that’s how. She needs his campaign to implode in a scandal of some nature, as she’s not going to be able to defeat it from the outside now.
While he remains short of the outright winning line (ie his pledged delegates make up more than half the convention total - something that will almost certainly stay the case through to the end of the primaries) there is an incentive for Hillary to keep going in case he trips up. Presumably, this is one of the things that’s keeping Huckabee going while he is in a far more hopeless position on the GOP side. That said, in Hillary’s case, she does need to retain the air of a credible challenger to avoid accusations of selfishness which could be damaging to her future career in the Senate.
27. Indeed. And with things so close the case for reinstating Florida will become overwhelming. She walloped Obama there 49.5% to 33%.
If the ban is lifted, and I anticipate the Dems will be a laughing stock if not, then there are 185 delegates in Florida (aside from the supers) which break to give her another 30 odd delegates catch up on Obama.
O/T Interesting discussion on Newsnight. Apparently 24-hour drinking has been a failure.
I agree. All the pubs still close at 11.
Swingvoter even if she does get 60% in Texas & Ohio (which is unlikely) she will be very fortunate to get and equal number of delegates. To get enough to close the gap she needs 66% or more and she aint gonna get that in any stretch of the imagination.
30/ Kieran
“There is no way she will win TX and OH by 20 points. She is tied in the polls in Texas, and has a 6-7 point lead in Ohio. Best case scenario is probably a 5 point win in TX and a 14 point win in Ohio.”
I remember several swings of more than 10 points in this election… look at how wrong the polls were on Super Tuesday. I don’t think it’s likely but saying there “no way” we could be looking at that kind of result tomorrow seems pretty naive.
clinton will come out of tomorrow around 150 delegates behind. when everything has settled down and people realise that it is another 6 weeks until another primary i predict you will see clinton come under pressure to drop out. whether this is direct pressure or a drip drip drip of superdelegates leaving her i’m not sure but practically no one wants this thing to go on any longer
26. Even with wins that big, she’s unlikely to get more than 40 delegates, given the way they are allocated, which ISN’T pure PR. She has no chance of winning Mississippi or Wyoming, thus blunting any momentum she may have gained. Even if she had it, Oregon wouldn’t go her way, and certainly not North Carolina.
After that, there is no evidence to believe she is the establishment choice any more. Democrat leaders don’t like the way she has played dirty, don’t like the way she’s putting her candidacy before party unity, don’t want to overturn the will of the electorate and don’t want to put forward the person who is now considered the least promising candidate vs McCain.
34/Galloglass
“even if she does get 60% in Texas & Ohio (which is unlikely) she will be very fortunate to get and equal number of delegates. To get enough to close the gap she needs 66% or more and she aint gonna get that in any stretch of the imagination.”
Why is that? I calculated according to a pure PR model, that means that she would actually get more delegates since there’s almost always an advantage to being frontrunner, eg if delegates are allocated by district as well as state wide etc
32 - Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House, and likely powerbroker in the event of a dispute has said that FL and MI should not be seated if it would decide the nomination. The possibility of a re-run has been floated, but it would likely to be closer than the first poll. THat you have brought Florida into the equation proves the difficulties Clinton has. As I outlined on the previous thread it is possible for Clinton to win but there are lots of ifs involved, a lot more than for Obama.
35. interesting analysis the other day on dailykos, on average, the opinion polls underestimate obamas support to a much great extent than with clinton.
38. loads of articles about this if you have a look around, black areas of texas allocate a greater number of delegates than hispanic areas. ergo it is no “pure pr”.
37/
How will being a frontrunner reduce the number of delegates she gets below her popular vote share?
OK I haven’t been paying as much attention to primaries lately, I still think the game isn’t over, primaries and especially caucuses (where Obama has had an advantage up to now) are always pretty volatile situations.
I am going to close my Hilary Ohio long bet placed yesterday.
Look at her odds for Tx, she is closing fast.
40.0 45.0 +18.2
I am gonna have a small punt on her for Pres at about 12 with half the winnings.
37. I meant she’s unlikely to get a lead of more than 40 delegates in Texas. Thus she’s not going to become the front runner, even with big wins tomorrow. With 60-40 wins the narrative would be “Clinton’s coming back although Obama is still ahead, the fight is on” and then Obama would win the next two primaries.
41. This effect is massively overrated. Generally any district with blacks in will also have a lot of Hispanics. Be careful allowing this to guide you.
20. David Herdson. Your point about a prolonged and increasingly acrimonious fight for the Democratic nomination favouring McCain is a good one. I have a very strong position on a McCain presidency and a good one on Obama. I am hoping eventually to equalise those positions. If the Democrat race ploughs on in a Pyrrhic way, who knows I might be able to lay McCain close to Evens?
Every cloud etc …
38 - Read up on the Texas rules. A third of delegates are apportioned by caucuses. Delegates are awarded according to Dem turnout in 04 and 06, which was much higher in predominantly Black districts and lower in mostly Hispanic ones benefitting Obama.
By no way I meant the chances of Clinton getting 60% in BOTH TX and OH is somewhere less than 3%. No polls have been that far out in favour of Clinton. (NH was a net 10-points out, which if repeated here would have her win TX by 10 and OH by 16) Of course the polls may be out but it is outlandish to suggest that there is anything more than a negligible chance that ALL the polls in BOTH TX and OH are out by the sort of magnitude you suggest.
This whole election is shredding my nerves. Can we sue the Democratic Party for abusing the human rights of punters by causing undue stress and suffering? Any lawyers out there? Can we also sue the pollsters, on general trades descriptions grounds?
FWIW: Obama wins TX comfortably: with reportedly enormous voting, skewed delegate rules for urban areas, caucus advantage, and remember it’s an open primary (with Rep race a foregone conclusion).
I remember watching a CNN analysis/debate video where they were discussing how far out polls had been on Super Tuesday. Can’t remember the specific states mentioned but there were examples in the 30 point range and several in the 20 range.
Great article Mike. I think we will definitely be in for an exciting night tomorrow. Living in Ohio, I am very excited to see the polls trend toward Clinton. I attended a campaign rally for her yesterday in Westerville, Ohio and the excitement was definitely in the air.
The media needs to be fair and scrutinize both candidates.
Best of luck tomorrow Hillary! You definitely have my vote. Experience counts!
Obama’s foreign affairs advisor on newsnight
50 - Well thanks for being so specific. Some polls for ST were out badly (Zogby being by far the worst culprits) but because of the high number of contests the polls per state were lower, thus increasing the chances of being wrong. Incidentally the polls on average in primaries have understated Obama by 8 points. So if they are wrong it is likely to be in his favour.
In TX 8 polls have been done in the last few days with the spread ranging from Obama +3 to Clinton +6. In OH there have been 8 raging from Obama +2 to Clinton +12. I will be amazed if Clinton wins by the margins you are suggesting.
51 Nice to hear from you Jason.
Any chance you could report in to us tomorrow, let us know how you see things going?
Guido points out Labour MP Tom Watson has been making more than Derek Conway - employing three family members.
http://www.order-order.com/2008/03/sunday-sleaze-special-tom-watson.html
Labour will try to bury this - which means it will simmer and fester for use at the Council & General Elections. All good for the Anti-Labour Alliance.
52. TTT. I thought she came over very well. She seems extremely bright.
51. Jason. I agree with PtP. Great to have a poster from Ohio on the eve of your primary.
Is there a “Clinton Weeps” market out there anywhere? Shouldn’t it be about now?
56. Yes it was good to hear very straight answers to questions on rendition and Guantanamo. Obama hasn’t touched on these before a great deal.
PtP. Did you see my various title suggestions for SeanT’s book on one of the earlier threads this afternoon/evening?
I may be getting a bit tin-foil hat here, but some of the polls which show Hillary with big leads in Ohio are so skewed by selection towards the Clinton-supporting demographics that I get to wondering whether they were undertaken solely to support a pre-ordained narrative: that Hillary is on the comeback trail. Now, who would possibly want that outcome? Surely not the same media outlets who are raking in a massive cash bonanza from the advertising in this contest? Nah - that would have nothing to do with it… I’m sure they have no interest in Obama and Hilary spending those extra tens of millions on their local patches, knocking lumps out of each other…rather than spend it on knocking lumps out of McCain.
Getting ready for another long night tomorrow. Looks like HRC has shown aome impressive stickability. I still think she needs to comfortably win both states tomorrow to stay in or she will be damaging her party. If she does so, I still think they need to come to some agreement soon or McCain is being handed an advantage. Hillary’s last ad was brilliant but awful for her party. It is just turning into the type of campaign the Democrats really need to avoid.
60 - The flaw in that cunning plan is that if the polls are wrong in the way you suggest Hillary will only narrowly win OH and the wind will be well and truly taken out of her sails. These expectations make it more difficult for her to carry on if she fails to meet them and may help Obama.
62. but if hilary only narrowly wins ohio and loses texas its all over anyway, whatever the expectations going into tomorrow are
55
Cameron knows there is no milage in this sort of thing following Conway, best shut up and let the public think they are all at it until the proxy donor thing comes back to haunt Brown. I predict not a single person will be charged, just like cash for honours.
A comeback is for Clinton to barely take Texas and take Ohio with 10%?!? That’s pretty much a disaster given the state of play with delegates and the expectations two weeks ago -
Here’s what the Clinton camp *were* saying -
Clinton Chief Strategist Mark Penn: “After March 4th, over 3000 delegates will be committed, and we project that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will be virtually tied with 611 delegates still to be chosen in Pennsylvania and other remaining states. Again and again, this race has shown that it is voters and delegates who matter, not the pundits or perceived ‘momentum.’” [Mark Penn memo, 2/13/08]
Clinton aide Guy Cecil: “We think that at the end of the day on March 4 we will be within 25 delegates.” [Politico, 2/13/08]
Howard Wolfson: “I Think We Will Be Ahead In The Delegate Race After Texas And Ohio.” [Clinton campaign conference call, 2/11/08]
Now, remember that.
How many times do people fall for the Clinton spin, are they as dim as a 5 watt bulb or something? Your supposed ‘media narrative’ is an invented lie.
Seriously, do some people have a sort of memory sickness or is everything I’ve been reading for the last few months a complete fabrication? Am I in some sort of ‘Twilight Zone’ episode where I’m getting newspapers and TV channels that are the opposite of anyone else?
Hello. Not been on site for a while but…
here we go, Hillary’s last chance to be on the ballot.
What caught my eye on the link to the latest polls (RCP site) was that Obama no longer seemed to have an advantage over Clinton in the measures vs McCain in key states.
The only justification I see for her going negative is to turn up the heat on the youngster before the GOP do. It’s reasonable (if not pretty) to have some of this test before Obama seals the nomination. Seems it might be levelling things up.
62 Except these polls with an “X is winning here!” narrative do tend to be self-fulfilling. Ask the LibDems!!
O/T Oil now at $103 a barrel. Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs are predicting $150 by 2010. Not the best of back-drops for a general election. Better make it 2009 then…
What is certain is that if Clinton loses Ohio and Texas by anything more than a few points it’s over for her.
67 Could be higher than $150 soon if Venezuela & Colombia come to blows (Venezuela probably not that stupid as Colombia armed forces are combat trained and outnumber theirs but with Chavez you cannot be too sure)
69.Agreed, the clip I saw of Chavez last night indicated that he was prepared to rattle his sabre.
70 Certainly the oil price going into the US summer driving season is going to be a big story in shaping the outcome of the US election. Not looking good for McCain. The fall in the dollar is exacerbating it - far less painful a rise for Euro countries, for example.
re 68 She loses Ohio and Texas and it’s over, IMO.
Ohio is surely the one to watch. That was the state that kept Bush in the White House. A Dem who looks like s/he can take will appear to have the keys to the White House within grasp. A good Clinton win will open up a key question…despite everything, can Clinton better get the vote out where DEMs need it.
It would give the super-delegates thinking room…OK Obama won the popular vote and elected delegates, but do we really want this decided by big wins in GOP states? Are we here for a reason - to choose the most likely Dem winner, if it’s close - or are we redundant?
72 - Well there’s no we she can lose Ohio, she’s led in about 99% of the polls (literally), it was never an option for Obama. I was sure that Texas was more malleable and that looks to be the case, the polls have gradually moved from an easy Clinton win to a statistical dead heat. It will be the GOTV operation which tips it one way or the other but it won’t be by a killer margin.
Vermont is Obama’s clearly but he may come closer in Rhode Island than expected (and much closer than in Ohio).
no we = no way (honest).
59 There were certainly some very good follow-up suggestions today for the title of Sean’s new book. I hope the ultimate winner is properly rewarded enjoying, perhaps, a week’s holiday with Sean in Thailand, with the runner-up spending two weeks with him.
68 What is certain is that if Clinton loses Ohio and Texas by anything more than a few points it’s over for her.
Surely if she loses both Texas and Ohio by whatever margin, it’s all over and she’ll quit without delay or be forced to.
OT - Not the most reliable of sources but speculation over whether the Chair of the NRCC may be sacked if the GOP lose a special election next Saturday.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/3/3/81042/92476/77/467761
The NRCC is the campaign arm for House Republicans. It has $6m in the bank compared to $35m at its Democratic counterpart. It is defending a huge amount of open seats, many very vunerable. To make matters worse it is under investigation by the FBI for accounting irregularities.
The special election is in Illinois-14 and is the former seat of Denis Hastert, former Speaker. It is a red seat but Dem polls show a tight race. The NRCC has spent $1m to try to save the seat already. If the GOP lose then they are in for another grim year. Even if they hold on they have little to no chance of regaining the majority. If the Dems don’t implode there could be the most progressive/liberal Congress/President combination for a long time.
59 Yes I did StJohn.
I wondered about horse names myself but all I could think of was Deep Sensation, which would of course be a very different subject.
Interesting discussion but it seems to lack mention of the latest developments across the pond. This has been a very good day for Clinton and a bad one for Obama:
1. The latest polls show a little movement towards Clinton.
2. The start of the Rezko trial and for the first time Obama being placed on the defensive by the media.
3. The Canadian memo about NAFTA which seems to show Obama in a very bad light.
Little by little Obama is looking to be just another fallible oh so human politician. He is still favorite for the nomination but there are a number of ways that Clinton can still win.
If Clinton wins clearly in the popular vote in Texas but loses the caucaus in Texas will this not devalue all of the blow out caucus wins that have given Obama so many of his delegates?
The big ‘blue’ states (most of them won by Clinton) have a lot more superdelegates than the normally ‘red’ states.
Nothwithstanding Pelosi et al there is a mechanism whereby the seating or not of Florida and Michigan could come down to a vote at the convention.
If Clinton wins either Ohio or Texas they’ll be the first she’s ‘won’ since Super Tuesday, and it sounds as though the media narrative, and possibly the betting reaction, will be the same as well.
The Clinton’s will be desperate to present any victory as the dramatic start of the Comeback, just as they were able to initially present the victories in most of the ‘big’ states on Super Tuesday as being of most importance.
This will probably work at first, since the raw vote totals will be the first result in.
However, when the dust settles, Obama is likely to gain more delegates out of Texas, and not be many behind in Ohio (barring a really unexpected turnaround for Clinton). He will still be 100 delegates ahead.
Barring skulduggery, or scandal, she is now too far behind. She looks set to hang on to the bitter end though.
Updated spreadsheet with rough guestimates for tomorrow night based on latest polls…
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/Democrats.xls
It looks to me that Obama’s pledged delegate lead might be trimmed by a measly 10, from about 157 to 147, which he will probably recover by Mississippi a week from now. So, just a tiny bump in the road.
Hillary really has to pull a 10 foot tall rabbit out of the hat to alter the race….
Completely off topic (well it is late) and in answer to my own earlier question, [Graeme] Murray Walker, OBE was born on 10 October 1923 in Hall Green, Birmingham - incredible to think that the old boy is almost 85 years of age. He was educated at Highgate School and Sandhurst.
81 Rod, you mean a Texan rabbit?
55
Tom Watson now the minister for pork having paid out £ 300,000 of expenses to family members.
Makes Derek Conway look like a wimp.
I don’t expect SeanT picked up on my Reference Point. No Rhyme’n'Reason why he should. But I knew that you, The Thinker, being Oh So Sharp and not completely focussed on Party Politics would See More Business in my posts than others.
Ah well, Forgive’n'Forget. Looks like trouble if I carry on much longer with this nonsense. So I will conclude this Nocturnal Spree by taking the Fairy Footsteps to Sleepytime. Don’t Forget Me.
83. A racoon, rattlesnake, or skunk would do the job just as well..
My 85 was directed at PtP at 78.
82. PfP. I didn’t know that. Another feather in the cap for the second city and home of The Villains.
84 ….. and that’s despite all the money he won playing golf.
87 stjohn - I mentioned he was a Brummie on the previous thread.
90 stjohn, ahem… doesn’t Tom Watson, referred to above, represent a Birmingham constituency?
The best political team on television, CNN’s Situation Room, have done the math and infer Hillary has a mountain to climb whatever happens in tonight, Tuesday’s, Primaries.
BTW I’ve so far bought back £18 of my original £30 per point bet on Villa at the same (64 points) price at which I sold.
90. We haven’t heard your “kipper tie” joke in the last few days!
91 Rod’s spreadsheet, linked by him above, says exactly the same - however you look at it, it’s all over. Fingers crossed though, for a Hillary 3-1 state win tomorrow.
93 it’s actually a month or two since it was given an airing - I have to tread carefully with this or Mike will ban me - I thought I might bring it out again on the day he collects on some or other winning bet!
That’s more than enough rabbit from me for one day, so as Murray would say, unless I’m very much mistaken, it’s bed time.
92. Yeth! There is more joy in heaven over one sinner that repenteth…
As for tomorrow a narrow 3-1 Hillary win would be very welcome as Ohio appears doubtful now for Obama. But I haven’t completely given up hope on that contest.
Jaysus there’s been a change of sentiment on here since this morning…
Ohio looks to be Clinton’s. Texas is still battleground stuff and its not easy to tell. If she loses she can still logic a carry on because it was Texas and its a red state but she’d be out of rope and the pressure would be very big to quit.
She wins the 2, however narrowly, and she will logic a staying in as follows:
-Mud is getting thrown at Obama now and she doesnt have to fling it herself. She will want to see if there is damage inflicted
-The ‘I win where it matters’ line will appear again
-Florida & Michigan. This is really where Clinton is angling. If Clinton can halt the drift to Obama with a comeback kid moment tomorrow then there is every chance she could take both in a re-run. Again the win where it matters line will come up.
I’m not sure many people are quite getting it right now. I suspect people dont see Clinton’s mentality. Its not solely about simple mathematics, trends and win margins. If Clinton can win she’ll stay and use every lever. She has one shot at this and she knows it. She wont be back in 2012 so she might as well.
(A) The private referendum on whether to have a referendum is meaningless, because it is a self-selecting sample of pro-democracy whingers (never mind the fact that I agree with their verdict). It was a similar turnout to the private referendum in Scotland on Clause 28, which merely resulted in an overwhelming vote by the swivel-eyed red-neck reactionary bigots and was ignored by the majority of sensible open-minded people.
(B) seanT’s book: I always like titles like “The [Proper name] [noun]” so “The Jericho Vault” is probably OK.
(C) I think that Obama will get the nomination, but I keep thinking of the huge and consistent lead which Michael Dukakis had in the opinion polls in the summer of 1988. I expect that the rest of the year will follow a similar pattern. There will be a lot of enthusiasm and optimism, and a yearning for the delights of Newism-Freshism-Changeism, followed by an increasing level of scrutiny and criticism of Obama’s Leftism-Vacuousism-Windbagism-Softism, and a retreat to the status-quo-ante position of reaction and fear. The “3am phone call” advert may send people in their millions to vote for McCain.
99 - (c) is exactly what I was thinking. It was a great ad.. for McCain.
99. JL. I quite like “It’s not my Vault”.
I think PfP suggested something similar.
Clinton is an evil bitch and every time I see her photo I want to throw up. She and her evil husband should get the hell out of politics before she splits the Democratic party in two - and I’m not joking.
Other than that, it’s been a beautiful sunny day in the Ocala National forest and during our late-afternoon spot of reading in the garden we noticed a ruby-crowned kinglet hanging about; that was the high point of the day.
Malcolm
Will this be damaging to Labour?
I think that even a narrow win for Hillary will be sufficient to change the narrative. Don’t forget that Obama has outspent her by a factor of about five. If she pulls through she’ll be able to say that the American people want to look at the two candidates again. And the media will go with that too.
Hi, I’m not sure why so many people here are predicting Clinton will win both primaries when the bookies have Obama 1/2 to win Texas. Do you all know something I/they don’t?
If she wins by a narrow margin, which it now looks like she will (it never looked like Obama would win either by a convincing enough margin to completely kill her in the water) then it’s only delaying the inevitable. The delegates she’ll take won’t be enough when Obama goes to North Carolina and decimates her. She will be gone by North Carolina if she’s stubborn enough to stay running that long.