YouGov puts the Tories at 16% ahead…
March 15th, 2008
Voters give a big “thumbs down” in the first post-budget polls
Reports are coming in of two new polls showing big moves to the Tories. YouGov has the party on 43% a massive 16% ahead of Labour.
The shares with comparisons on the last YouGov survey at the end of February are: CON 43% (+3): LAB 27% (-6): LD 16% (nc)
ICM for tomorrow’s News of the World has Cameron’s party with a lead of 9% - up from just 3% in the last survey from the pollster two weeks ago. Thes are the shares with changes on the last survey from the pollster - CON 40% (+3): LAB 31% (-3): LD 20% (-1)
According to the Sunday Times, which commissioned the YouGov survey, the 16% lead is the biggest that the Tories have enjoyed for 20 years. I don’t think that that is correct. On June 9th 1990 ICM was reporting a a Conservative lead of 19%.
Mike Smithson
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I await Roger’s comments telling us how this means Cameron is finished and cannot possibly win. Mark Senior will tell us that the Lib Dems are going to double their seats…….
Looks like the Ed Ballsup “So What!” is kicking in.
Mike, Tim Montgomery on ConHom also reports “Another poll - ICM for the News of the World - is more modest. The Tories are 9% ahead according to ICM but that’s 6% more than the previous survey by that pollster.”
ICM Con40% Lab31% Libdem 20%
What not enough space for grumpy Gordons, Mike!
RodC’s swingometer gives (with a modest Nats boost and lots of LD incumbency) a Tory majority of 109 (377/205/34)
When was the last time ANY party was 16% ahead on ANY poll?
Andrea?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3559030.ece
The Tories need to be at least 59% ahead to have any chance of being the largest party at the next election. Labour should only really be worried if their poll rating goes below zero.
I really don’t know what to make of these polls. Things appear a bit volatile at the moment.
The Yougov looks like a rogue poll. Just too out of line from any other we’ve had in the past few months.
Come on Mike lets see those 16 Daves.
Refresh Fan
User-defined Prediction Electoral Calculus
The predicted results in the country, given the National levels of support which you entered, are as follows.
National Prediction: CON majority 134
Party 2005 Votes 2005 Seats Pred Votes Pred Seats
CON 33.24% 208 43.00% 392
LAB 36.21% 347 27.00% 199
LIB 22.65% 66 16.00% 29
I’m going to need a stiff gin after looking at those 16 daves.
Still not breaching the crucial 45% mark
Good poll news for us tories. I have just come back from the Conservative Party Spring Conference. David Cameron’s speech was about as right wing as we are yet to hear from him, but the he generally came across as someone who is ready for government. As biased as I am the whole shadow cabinet seem to be working coherently based around a few key issues. They seem far more capable of running the country at the moment than the current Labour cabinet. The only downside was it looked like the tories were struggling to fill out the place, but I guess that is the risk of holding it as far north as Gateshead.
13
crucial??
Mrs Thatcher never had 45% so far as I recall…. 42% was about tops. Anyone know for sure?
lol
13
Is that ‘crucial 45% mark’ any relation to the crucial 40% mark?
One other crucial statistic: Lib Dems on 16% are only 2% ahead of “others” on 14%.
17 - Yes, directly related. It’s 40% + 5%
Now we know why Mike hasn’t put Clegg on the mast head
My research amoung Sun readers suggests that the Labour party is still popular. However, the labour govt in general, and GB in particular, are not liked at all.
They want the labour party, but not the labour govt. There is no enthusiasm for DC, unlike in the mid 90s for TB. But the is a feeling of staleness about, which many of them reckon to be irreversible.
14 - “They seem far more capable of running the country at the moment than the current Labour cabinet.”
That could be a key tipping point.
At some stage between 1992 and 1997, the Shadow Cabinet (Blair, Brown, Cook, Straw, Dewar, Mowlam, Strang, Chris Smith… even Blunkett, Beckett and Prezza) started to look more statesmanlike than the incumbent Tories.
Once you reach that stage, it is hard to survive. We are not at that stage quite yet, IMHO. But not far off. A sideways move for Osborne to be party chairman, bringing in AN Other (Duncan? Willetts?) as Shadow Chancellor may get them to the tipping point.
20 - It’s arguable that Gordon is being given too high a status. (wasn’t there some “poll” recently claiming that David Cameron was a more powerful person than the Prime Minister?
)
18 - why crucial?
Not many of our local party went, but then we are busy with local elections coming up which have been made more complicated by boundary changes. You lose some helpers and have to get the new ones to join in with a new association etc.
There is a real sense of determination that we don’t take our eye off the ball.
Margaret Thatcher got 44% in 1979; 43% in 1983 and 1987 and John Major managed 42% in 1992.
Its the economy…
20. Clegg on the mast head or,
Clegg’s head on the mast?
24. Was just playing on it’s previous use by alex.
But that 16% does not look good for LDs. Neither does that 27% look good for Labour. Both would suggest core vote.
Hi,I put my hands up-I was tired,very stressed out,a little bit p1ssed last night-reading one or two lines from someone (I forget who) riled me to the point of stating ‘Write your opininos on a cucumber and stick it up your arse’-not very polite,but in real life,I’ve said far,far worse,in white rage-I generally try to adhere to the rule ‘Say nothing on here you would not say to someone’s face’-I hope I do adhere to that.I hold out an olive branch to Don-can we cyber-shake hands and move on-lifes too short.
To the meat of this thread,2 poll showiing an average 12.5% Tory lead,a swing of 7.75% from the GE of 2005 -but we should NEVER forget swingback,so while I can foresee the Tories (Possibly) being largest in a hung parliament,I still feel they have alittle way to go before the trends truly show DC its time to start measuring upfor curtains at no.10:wink:
19
26
Interesting (re 1979 44%), Is Ed Balls “so what” comment eqivalent to Jim Callaghan’s “Crisis what Crisis” (given that both denied they ever said it….)
21. ‘My research among Sun readers….’ The mind boggles.
I have never heard a sentence begin with those words before.
29 - Of course with Labour at such low levels, it doesn’t leave too many votes to be passed tactically to the LibDems.
The tipping point for any government is when all the malcontents go to the principle opposition party rather than indulging the third party.
It looks like this is what has now happened.
They’ll be discussing the election that never was in 50 years time.
23 Alex Yes, but it was GQ. The Editor is an unabashed Tory. Appears occasionally on the Wright Stuff [rumour has it!]
34. According to Andy Cooke both Labour and Lib Dems each get a 10 seat bonus from tactical voting. If that unwinds, it would put the Lib Dems on 24 seats according to RodC’s model.
And Wales are winning!!!!
A Labour slump below 30% tallies exactly with expectations on my part - everyone I’ve spoken to, Labour or Tory, thinks the Budget bombed and will leave them significantly worse off.
If you put up the tax on an ordinary man’s Mondeo from £160 to £270 a year, and stick a whopping 14p on a bottle of wine or 55p on whisky, he is going to be a bit naffed off, even if his income tax is notionally dropped by 2p in the £.
Will Labour see 30% again whilst still in office?
37. Perhaps we shall look back and see that Ave It was actually the most accurate poster on PB.
Getting ahead here… So Darling is a flop. Replace him? With Balls, who may have contrrbuted to the problem and discredited himself? With someone else who is a likely to be a trhreat to Balls’ ambition? Owwww
38
the only thing to spoil a great day;)
but fair play to Wales, the other sides were not as good over 5 games////
Re Yougov. The records are
16 is Biggest Conservative lead with Yougov
16 is Biggest lead by any party with Yougov (back to 2002)
27 is lowest Labour poll with Yougov
39 I do not think that the car tax implications have filtered through to the public.
Labour’s polling has further to fall.
2010 looks ever more likely.
Sorry, exciement affecting my typing..:-0
It could of course be a rogue poll and I would want to see a couple more from other organisations reflecting these results before believing YouGov.
I knew that Gordon Brown was doing badly, and missing opportunities to do better, but I never saw him as an IDS-type figure who would take his party to the brink of oblivion.
What I’m really scared of is the finger pointing and blame warfare that is going to erupt within the Labour hierarchy.
Of course, I’m not really sure what the Tories are going to do. It’s very odd to hear them promising to increase the numbers of health visitors - I’m too used to hearing them argue that the public sector is too bloated.
I can imagine some people are going to harp on about “swingback” and that the government has the opportunity to regain the initiative, etc, but, really, honestly, can anyone name a politically popular move that Gordon Brown’s government has taken that they didn’t manage to botch in some way? They’re singularly incapable getting anything right.
It’s all hypothetical of course, but when Labour had their landslide in 1997 there were people being elected who had had no central ’screening’ at all. Although ultimately I think many proved to be the most loyal of all Labour MPs.
What is the make up of Conservative candidates in some of the more “far off” targets?
‘Will Labour see 30% again whilst still in office?’
Fancy £1000 on it?
49
We’re still a long way from an election.
44. Neither has the income tax changes - people should get their first wage slips just before the May elections - good timing by Gord and Co methinks (not). I suspect King Newt amongst others will be feeling a little glum….
i doubt they’re 16% ahead, more around the 9-10% mark. although 16% on that one must be very disheartening for labour, they’ve tried to push the budget as being sensible and really gone for eht tories, and it seems to have backfired spectacularly.
The best thing Labour can do is appeal to Gordon Brown to govern more collegiately (and if he’s already doing so, APPEAR to be doing so), and manage this period of unpopularity so they only lose narrowly in 2009. Brown should then resign and they can replace him with someone better who will have a much easier job of dislodging Cameron after one term (or less) than was ever possible for the new Tory leader in 1997.
One thing I positively believe is that even if they lose outright and Cameron gets a decent majority, there is no way that Labour will be in the position where they have no chance whatsoever - unlike the Tories in 1997. Cameron just isn’t appealing enough and Labour won’t be heated like the Cons were.
hated, not heated
Mike: I think you’re mistaken about the June 1990 poll. It had Lab 54%, Con 35%. The Gallup poll a few days earlier, for example, gave Labour a 24% lead. Perhaps the source you were looking at had a typo?
However, the ASL phone poll in January 1991 gave the Tories a 17% lead.
54. Have Labour got anyone better? I haven’t seen him/her if there is someone.
54/55
I don’t think the Conservatives were hated. They just didn’t look up to the job in 2001 & 2005.
48 - “swingback” is a bit of a misleading concept IMO. What it amounts to is there being natural variation in polling cycles, and the Govt in power having the advantage of being able to time the election to a point at which the polling cycle is most favourable to them.
This advantage largely disappears once the Govt takes the decision to sacrifice this advantage, in favour of a dogmatic “go long” approach.
52
not so methinks, I was a Payroll Manager for 25 yrs and the vast majority of people are now paid bi weekly, 4 weeekly or monthly. Weekly pay is a thing of the past methinks so it wont be noticed my most till the end of May. In any event, its peanuts as a tax cut.
Surprisingly little movement on Spreadfair as yet, following these polls. I’ve just closed my £30 per seat sell bets of Tory seats at around 303.5, expecting the price to go to around 310 or more on these polls. There’s plenty available to buy at around the 304-305 seat level. On the same basis Labour seats should fall to around the 270 range.
YouGov Poll, central prediction, election-to-poll swing, tactical voting retained by Labour, Lib Dem incumbency/targetting boost:
Con 385 (MoE +/-10)
Lab 199 (+/-10)
LD 36 (+/-6)
YouGov poll, central prediction, election-to-poll swing, half tactical vote lost, Lib Dem incumbency/targetting boost
Con 393 (MoE +/-10)
Lab 191 (+/-10)
LD 35 (+/-6)
ICM poll, central prediction, election-to-poll swing, tactical voting retained by Labour, Lib Dem incumbency/targetting boost:
Con 317 (MoE +/-10)
Lab 253 (+/-10)
LD 51 (+/-6)
ICM poll, central prediction, election-to-poll swing, half tactical vote lost, Lib Dem incumbency/targetting boost:
Con 326 (MoE +/-10)
Lab 245 (+/-10)
LD 49 (+/-6)
ICM poll, central prediction, poll-to-poll swing, tactical voting retained by Labour, Lib Dem incumbency/targetting boost:
Con 341 (MoE +/-10)
Lab 226 (+/-10)
LD 53 (+/-7)
ICM poll, central prediction, poll-to-poll swing, half tactical vote lost, Lib Dem incumbency/targetting boost:
Con 350 (MoE +/-10)
Lab 218 (+/-10)
LD 52 (+/-7)
Notes: Probabilistic predictor, MoE equates to 2 standard deviations (ie 95% confidence), “Poll-to-poll” compares swing from that pollsters equivalent eve-of-poll prediction (eliminates any accusations of pollster bias; NB not available for YouGov due to methodology change), “Tactical vote retained” assumes that tactical voting will benefit Labour as much as it did in 2005; “half tactical voting lost” assumes that Labour will get only half the boost it got from anti-Tory tactical voting last time.
There are too many variables to provide predictions for all scenarios. Another good one to run is the polls on the margins of error of these ones. But I can say with confidence that on the strength of these polls, the Conservatives will be somewhere between the largest party in a hung parliament (a few seats over the 300 mark) to a majority of over 150 (a few seats over the 400 mark).
You pays your money and you takes your choice …
54. 55. Desperate stuff, really desperate. The party you so adore is already held in contempt and as economic problems mount, things are only going to get worse for them.
51 - It’s a hypothetical question. How far down the list are Central Office keeping an eye on selections?
Yes, excellent Tory polls! No argument.
I think You Gov is always more responsive to the mood music.
I am not sure if it is because internet users are so much more informed!
I think…. what I will think…. when I have settled down abit, is that it actually follows a trend.
The Tories go up and down and so do Labour. But over time the Tories high points get consistently higher, as does their low point.
Likewise, Labour’s high points get lower as do their low points.
This coincides with Govt bad news and Dave [good or bad].
Suck it up BBC!
Re - Last Thread, whever tried to claim that post Super Tuesday states for the GOP were not winner takes all was wrong. Washington partly, Rhode Island, Maryland,and some pacific islands yes. Put that against Kansas, DC, Virginia, Wisconsin, most of Washington, Puerto Rico, Ohio, Texas & Louisiana (if over 50% in what would have been a two horse race, so effectively WTA), Vermont and Mississippi.
Upcoming there are more proportional states but by now a challenger could have been very much back in the game.
Maybe they didn’t know about district WTA or just made it up out of their head.
Still - Romney comes out of this as ten times the person that Clinton does.
66
I remember the Sunday morning after the election that never was. Broadcasting house avoided mentioning the headline story in all the papers, until the last minute of the show. Then the only comment was what a lucky escape the Conservatives had had
BBC, fair and balanced reporting.
60. But don’t the Tax changes come in on the 1st April? Hence whatever pay system people are on they will get their first pay slip under the new taxes at the end of April just before the local elections?
Superb poll - best in years!
[39] - Of course Labour will top 30% in an opinion poll, even from Yougov, again. It might be an outlier in their favour, though.
[41] - I’m convinced that Brown can only go forward if he can leave Balls behind. Since the two of them have been so close together for so long, This is very unlikely to happen. Time for the classical music, with the sounds of deckchairs being rearranged in the background…
67 - Should have made it clear that Washington partly, Rhode Island, Maryland,and some pacific islands have been the proportional ones.
Pter Ridell [whois a goog guy] has had a bit of a spat with the TaxPayers Alliance about his reliance and interpretation of the Populus poll.
In a nutshell, they said it was pants and he said he acknowledged it had limitations but they were dissing it because they didn’t like what it said.
I would suggest they have less egg on their face after these bigger, weighted etc polls.
Very heartening - Britain looks like it really is about to awaken from the appalling nightmare of the last decade. REJOICE.
65: so what do you plan to do after the Commons then, Nick P?
Sorry, couldn’t resist that one. Very noble of you not to attempt to put some spin on it…
Seriously - do you think the Budget has indeed gone down like a lead balloon, as per my post 39 above? It does seem to be hitting your core supporters most.
grand slammmmmmmmmmmmmmmm…ahem, sorry
anyhoo, we constantly hear about how brown can come back if he does this or that, but it never happens. he never sorts anything out. balls is just a sympton of the rubbish team he has around him.
[47] - Yes, of course it is a rogue poll, but the “true” position must still be awful for Labour for a poll, even a rogue one, to produce such scores.
And, there is also the horrifying possibility that this poll is not as rogue as the ones that went before it, except that because those polls showed a narrowing of the position, it’s conceptually a little harder to think of them as “rogue”, even though they may be as far from the true position as one that produces a large difference between the parties.
Both IG Index and Sporting Index have suspended their general election spread markets. I managed to get a bit on Tory seats with both before the suspension though they don’t let me bet very much anymore.
[29] - Maybe Labour’s core vote is not as stupid as they think it is? Maybe Labour’s core vote noticed that they had their income tax put up from 10% to 20%, increasing their income tax, whilst their courageous leader tried to buy votes in mythical Middle England?
After all, the Yougov poll has others +3%, half of the people that Labour lose compared to the previous poll.
Where have they gone? BNP? Greens? Whatever random lefty decides to stand in my constituency?
68: “BBC, fair and balanced reporting”
I wonder if this historic poll lead will get any mention whatsoever on the BBC News tonight?
No, I expect not. Probably be something deriding the Tories about not having any councillors in Gateshead or something, and facing an uphill battle to win again in the north…
69 - the tax changes come into effect on 6th April when it is an unhappy new tax year (2008/9) for those who at present benefit with the 10% tax band.
re 39 Bob, don’t forget the 5 million (the majority of them natural Labour supporters) whose income tax is going up in 3 weeks. The full effect of this won’t become apparent until the end of April - indeed quite a few of them may not yet realize that Gordon shafted them last year. I think Labour could go lower yet.
81
You mean the Labour vote can fall lower than 27% ? Top banana
re 82 I forgot to say that this might be the equivalent of Gordon’s 25p pensioner’s increase early on in his incumbency. You’d have thought that he would have learnt from that wouldn’t you?
[54] - It’s not just if the public hate Labour, there are other ways a new opposition can have no chance.
The most likely for Labour is that they implode in an orgy of self-destructive infighting as the Blairites blame the Brownites, the Brownites blame the Tories (they do so about everything already), and everyone else in their party wrings their hands about how terrible it is… (and also blames the Lib Dems, and the Greens, and anyone else but themselves).
85. Spot on - it’s going to be great. Labour a pathetic lauging stock again, just like the 1980s. Back to where they should be.
A likely knock-on effect from these latest polls is the greatly diminished likelihood of a General Election before 2010.
There’s great value to be had with Paddy Power who are currently offering 11/8 or 1.375/1 on a 2010 GE. All the other bookmakers go odds-on with Ladbrokes pricing 2010 at just 8/11 or 0.73/1, a staggering difference between the two firms.
Hurry, PP’s price won’t last.
re 85 you could almost put that to music - National Brotherhood Week, anyone?
test
“It’s tempting to automatically assume that such a massive shift this must be a rogue poll. My guess is that it will indeed prove to be an outlier - the shift is just too large- but a second poll, this time from ICM in the News of the World, confirms a significant shift towards the Tories since the budget. ICM’s topline figures, with changes from their last poll, are CON 40%(+3), LAB 31%(-3), LDEM 20%(-1).” Anthony Wells, UK Polling Report
The fightback looks like it’s stalled……..
Wow, that’s huge. To put that YouGov poll into some sort of context
Election 1992: Con 42, Lab 34, Lib Dem 18
and if you really want to give Gordon Brown a shock
Con 405, Lab 180, SNP 19, Lib Dem 16, Plaid 6, Respect 2, Green 1, Ind 1, KHHC 1, BGPV 1, NI 18. Con majority of 160
85- I doubt that there are many in the Labour party who do not know what the problem is- obviously Gordon Brown, and his inner circle of acolytes. I guess even Nick Palmer knows this- though obviously he is far too loyal.
That catastrophic 3 weeks in autumn- the Iraq stunt, the election that never was, the lies and deceit (not the opinion polls), and the shame face desperate stealing of the Tory IHT proposals- showed Brown’s leadership for what it was. Cuddles is right here- there is no possibility for a fightback whilst Brown is leader. The guy does not have it in him.
Brown had a honeymoon to die for, a benign united party behind him, faced by a (then) weak and divided opposition, and he screwed it up. All his own making, but then I very much doubt he could help it.
91. As ever the master of understatement. My take on it is this is yet another Labour U-Turn!
77
Definetly rogue polls for the Lib Dems as they are not in line with this week’s parish council by-election results,looking forward to some informed comment from our resident guru from Worthing.
This is excellent, superb in fact. Are we really 16 points ahead, i very much doubt it and it might be a bit rogue, however some points are becoming clear. The Tories are stable at 40%. This is the most heartening news as the foundations look solid. It’s also looking like Brown has lost the voters that kept Blair in power in key seats. That could mean 30% is looking likely. Also the Lib Dems are not making progress. It will take some time to regain the ground they’ve lost over the last 2 years.
did the period include dc’s family coverage or not?
When was the last time Labour polled as low as 27?
Certainly some time before June 1987.
If 27 is an outlier then ICM’s 31 for Labour is a conservative estimate of where Labour are.
If however we do get a series of polls under 30 over a several month period then watch what happens in the Labour party’s “professional MPs” when 150 of them start staring at the prospect of losing their jobs.
I wonder what Ken Livingstone is thinking….. in seeing this poll….
If these figures are to be believed the value bet must be Boris to become the next Mayor of London.
I am tempted to stake even more on him before his odds shrink.
93. omg , someone thought i talked some sense !
it is true, brown cannot now lead labour to any kind of victory. he only knows one tactic, bash the tories and try to spin everything positively. cameron has him by the,erm, opinion polls (yeah, that’ll do). brown has thrown everything at cameron, and it hasnt work, in fact cameron has become stronger because of it. what else can brown do?
[93] - It’s the wasted potential that’s so infuriating. What an opportunity. And because he threw it all away I’m going to have to live with the smug gits on the Tory frontbench.
93 - I think it’s more serious than that. For several years Labour’s entire electoral strategy has been based on
1) The Tories are a joke
2) We’ve run a good economy
Every time they ever moved away from these two fundamental themes they focussed on things that they did in their first term (you know the stuff - devolution, minimum wage, BoE independence, Social Chapter, New Deal for Young People etc etc
This strategy has explicitly suited Gordon, because it gives him the credit for anything positive that Labour have campaigned on. However with the Tories no longer a laughing stock (scaring people about them will never be quite as damaging, even if successful), and the economy looking dodgy, they have no wideranging alternative campaigning issues to fall back on.
If the polls carry on like this there will be panic in the PLP. The divisions that have existed in the party since the birth of New Labour will be exposed. Labour will probably lose the next election and the different factions will blame each-other, deepening the divisions within the party. Mmm, sounds familiar.
100 great minds think alike and in the same moment too!
Following on from 93- how Brown managed to turn the press against him, unite the opposition, hand them the policy initiative, even giving Osborne stature, and show himself to be the dithering, bottling, calculating, cynical, unlikable, cowardly man he actually is- all in that 2/3 weeks.
Taken about 6 months to sink in- but Brown has now reached a tipping point, and these polls show that if he hangs around to an election, Labour are going to get thumped.
Gosh. That’s a hell of a result from YouGov, and a pretty good one from ICM. Having done some canvassing in the last few weeks (in a Con/LD marginal, so not wholly typical), it doesn’t completely surprise me - there has definately been some movement to the onservatives.
Even so, a few words of caution to overenthusiastic Tories. Firstly, a sixteen point lead is obviously extremely good, but even if it’s not an outlier, it may still overstate the current position (an outlier/rogue is on beyond the MoE, which is usually about +/-3% each way). ICM looks more sensible to me and I’d have thought a 9-12 point lead nearer the mark. That said, Labour on 27% is dreadful share for them. When were they last down there? Some time in the mid-80s, I’d have thought.
Secondly, 43% of the total vote isn’t especially good with a sixteen point lead (though obviously it is a good score in its own right). That kind of margin has been produced by an unpopular Labour government, not a particularly popular Conservative Party - the Others share is high and if there was a positive mood for change, that would drop off some.
Thirdly, Labour still has a large number of seats in which MPs are putting out newsletters and other things paid for by the taxpayer. Tory MPs are doing the same of course, but it’s the Labour ones, together with some Lib Dems, who’ll be fighting the marginals next time.
Fourthly, a constituency network still counts. That could be a big problem for Labour in many areas as their membership ages and declines, but it is also a problem for the Conservatives in some areas which should be targets to get up to and beyond a hung parliament, where the pre-1997 organisation has withered badly and the incumbent Labour / Lib Dem MP is looking entrenched. That is something CCHQ will have to address if these poll shares aren’t going to end up in a large number of 20000+ majorities and not as many gains as would be expected. This effect is reinforced by a notorious lack of willingness among Conservative volunteers to go out of safe seats and help in marginals - unlike Labour and especially Lib Dem activists.
93
Don’t you think it was Brown coming out of the closet and inviting his Tory icon for tea and arranging for the world’s media to record the event?
106. not all of it has been brown, he’s just allowed the tories to get their message and new style over a lot easier than blair did.
Good grief! 16% lead with YouGov? I bet the YouGov executives nearly fell off their chairs when they saw this! :O
ICM looks more sensible to me. 9% lead with the Conservatives at 40% and Labour at 31%.
One thing though, if Labour’s polling doesn’t improve quickly, they could be facing a 95/96 style meltdown! :O
107
“Fourthly, a constituency network still counts. That could be a big problem for Labour in many areas as their membership ages and declines, but it is also a problem for the Conservatives in some areas which should be targets to get up to and beyond a hung parliament, where the pre-1997 organisation has withered”
Time to become a ‘friend’ of the Conservatives perhaps, if you’re not already.
https://www.conservatives.com/tile.do?def=involved.join.page
[101] - There’s a lot that Brown could do, or at least could have done. Even if he somehow found the sense to kill off unpopular policies that are clearly going nowhere and costing lots of money (ID cards are front of the queue here), it might well be too late for him to do any good - though I might be over-reacting to the scale of this poll.
Brown is never going to find out, since he’s a died-in-the-wool Blairite who has been captured by the civil service (who love ID card type projects and the contract opportunities they represent for when they later hop into private sector directorships or consulting roles). And he also lacks Bliar’s “charm”.
93,Ah well,based on recent history,fourth terms ate not good foer a party,so a defeat (which would NOT be huge) may be cleansing long-term-let DC have his moment,see how he lasts when its actions and not just platitides required-my hunch is he’ll go 18-24 months then hit a REAL rough patch (fight with UNISON over the Local Govt Pension Scheme)
92. Suspect KHHC will be zero, especially if election is not held until 2010.
113 - Er, why is the Local Govt Pension scheme always the first target? What about all the unfunded schemes in the Public Sector?
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE poll of polls that comprises ICM, Populus, YouGov, CR and MORI that gives :
Con 40% .. Lab 31.8% .. LibDem 17.6% .. Others 10.6%.
The PISSED Wells/Baxter Index with added SOAMES weighting shows :
Con 312 seats .. Lab 262 .. LibDem 46 .. Others 30.
Con 14 seats short of a majority.
……………………..
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN …… Jacobite News Network.
ARSE ….. Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES … System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
111. I will be standing at the local elections as a Conservative (in the ward I was canvassing, by conincidence
), so somewhat beyond a ‘friend’.
Re Gordon’s late September mess, IIRC, it took about six months for the public to really turn against the Conservatives after Black Wednesday, so a similar sort of timescale.
[107] - An excellent post. Paragraph three is particularly worth noting, and should provide some encouragement to the Lib Dems. There is an opportunity here for them too, if they are able to grasp it.
109- agreed again- undoubtedly Cameron is now making the running. All the more reason why Labour needed a good leader with a good narrative.
Bron’s strategy to say that the Tories will eat your babies when back in power just looks risible. A bit like Major harking on about the winter of discontent in 1979 in the 97 elction. A quality of the British is to forgive, forget and move on.
113. Yeah. I remember a lot of Conservatives thinking much the same about Blair circa 1996.
[113] - That’s the sort of thing the Communists in Germany said about Hitler: “First Hitler, then us”.
I’m not suggesting Cameron is comparable to Hitler, just that you exhibit a remarkable amount of complacency in the same way as the Communists. They appeared to have no idea of the way in which Hitler would entrench his position, and Cameron may well be able to do the same.
Opposition would also only be “cleansing” for Labour if they were able to understand it properly. It took the Tories another two election defeats to begin to understand why they lost in 1997, who’s to say that Labour won’t respond in the same way.
Pleeeeese can we have our all out elections in South Lakeland brought forward to next Thursday !
117- I do not think the Labour party are in any kind of the mess that the Tories were in after Black Wednesday, but this is counterbalanced by the fact that Major was a much more appealing, and likeable leader than Brown could ever be.
Thus my point that if Brown stays on Labour will get thumped.
[121] - Cameron won’t necessarily be arresting Brown for treason though…
119. all true, brown rode his luck last year but instead of seeing is as a honeymoon he saw it as a long term thing. he still does, and thats where he falls down. he thinks that the his natural position is ahead of the tories and so wont rock the boat too much by making too many changes. if he continues on this line by the time he’s been convinced that the tories ARE a threat and not just a passing fad it’ll be too late. good for my lot though.
US: Obama’s troubles creates a good buying opportunity. Clinton is not going to catch him. He is value at 2/5 offered by VChandler and Betfair.
But his prospects in November is dimming. McCain is value at 2/1 Centerbet. I’ve added another £600 to my considerable holding.
The trouble for Labour is that there is no obvious replacement for Brown (unless you count David Miliband who seems to have neither charm nor electoral appeal).
As Timothy says @ 112, there is a great deal of money devoted to making dodgy consultancy firms very rich, and these should be killed off. But again, it is not straightforward since a weakened Brown cannot afford to upset the Blairites.
As Tyson implies @ 93, Brown’s inner circle is a big part of the problem and must go. Balls would be a good start: are there any EU posts coming up?
re 119. Is now the moment for Balls?
Youngish, public school and Oxford, attractive wife……and..em..em..
128 Oh dear Mike … you really have been at that vat of blue nun !!
By the way, when using MoE to look at the ranges of a lead, bear in mind that simply adding 3 to the lower one and subtracting 3 from the upper one would be outside the 95% criterion - because the error could go either way at equal probability, for that to be true, both errors have to line up in an exact way (which reduces the probability of that error occuring)
Further, both would have to be off by the extremes of error.
(I’m only mentioning this because I used to look at polls like this and say “Well, the YouGov one means the real scenario could be between 40/30 and 46/24; lead is between 10 and 22″ - and that puts more stress on the MoE than it can accept).
I did some calculations while back and I seem to remember that when you put the various factors together, the MoE in the lead was also pretty much the 3% MoE quoted for each individual score.
Central probabilistic forecast (YouGov)
Con 374
Lab 197
LD 36
Nats 22 (assumes SNP +13%)
Oth 3
NI 13 (SF abstain)
Central probabilistic forecast (ICM)
Con 309
Lab 252
LD 51
Nats 17 (assumes SNP +13%)
Oth 3
NI 13 (SF abstain)
6-poll rolling average
Con 307
Lab 262
LD 43
Nats 17
Oth 3
NI 13
The YouGov has to be treated as a rogue for the moment. The ICM is quite in line with the past 15 or so polls, which tends to support this hypothesis.
I suspect the true position is still something like 39:33:18.
Blimey, after a 3% lead not so long ago 16% and 9% are enormous swings.
However, not only do I consider 16% to be inaccurate, I hope it is. I want the next government to be Conservative, but a majority of that size would not, I think, be conducive to better governance.
I had thought the ‘real’ lead to be around 5-8%. I suspect it’s hovering around 8% still. The Tories need to resist the urge to be complacent and not rely on the government cocking things up (although this does seem rather likely).
Be interesting to see if the heroic Cleggnut, Abstainer par Excellence, benefits from this. Perhaps Clegg is another gift for Cameron. Though not awe-inspiring, Cameron’s clearly more likeable than Brown and more competent than Calamity.
Any idea when the Com Res poll is due? Based on these polls that should give a 20% lead!!
re 129 You’ve got to drink this weekend because it all gets more expensive next week. Funny how that hasn’t proved popular in the polls
128. Why not just choose the wife?
BTW, the statement in the intro about disagreeing with the Sunday Times about when the Tories last had a better lead is almost certainly wrong, as Mark Pack says at [57], given the political scene at the time (Poll Tax, Thatcher, interest rates at 14 or 15% etc), though he did find one a touch more recent with a bigger lead. Not sure I entirely believe that one either as it was way out of line with others at the time. The Mori 1979-present series gives the last larger Tory lead as just after the 1987 election, which ties in with the ST’s comment.
87 Hurry, PP’s price won’t last
It didn’t! Odds reduced from 11/8 to 11/10, now similar to Betfair’s odds, which are arguably arguably still attractive if you believe Labour’s share of the poll is likely to remain at or below 35% for the next 18 months.
…. Turkeys and Christmas, etc.
the amazing thing about this poll is and the talCalamity is getting 16% and the talk is of Labour problems! Clegg’s disastrous performance (only made starker by Cables’s excellent budget response[better than Gideon’s]) must be raising more questions in COwley street than in the PLP.
Gordon is two years away from having to face the consequences of increasing taxes on both the poorest workers (abolishing 10p band) and the strivers (increased NICs on 34-40K) - he can still do something about it. CLeggie is going nowhere and the position hasn’t improved after all the backstabbing of Ming. C’mon LDs get it over with and split into two; crazed tory hating lefties and almost sensible National Liberals. The agony of facing both ways at once must be excruciating.
Relax people. These polls are no more meaningful than last weeks which had the parties within a point or two of each other……
There are two years till the next election and if posters on here don’t think that’s time enough for Cameron’s Conc’s to blow it and for Labour to get their act together then they’re dreaming. For what it’s worth I think Labour are at last finding a narrative which is more than can be said for the Tories. it takes a while to work it’s way through to the polls.
My advice….wait and see.
138 - What is that narrative?
[137] - Re: NICs, did Brown play with the thresholds on that? I hadn’t noticed…
134 Relax Mike, I reckon Tesco will hold their booze prices for at least another month.
Remember the bad old days when petrol retailers had the prices on their forecourts marked up almost before the Chancellor had sat down?
138. thats it, buy tory!
narrative? its the same narrative they always do, the tories are toffs who cant be trusted after what they did in the late 80’s to the economy. nothings changed.
I’ve just put as much as I can on Boris for the Mayoralty. He was at evens on Betfair an hour ago - I’ve backed him down to 0.92/1
It’s hardly a good time for him to seek a third term with Labour doing so badly.
140 - Brown did, and Darling conveniently forgot to reannounce it.
re 141. I’ve just got my own booze tax avoidance plan - I’ve bought a season ticket on Eurotunnel.
138. LOL! Ever hopeful for Labour, eh, Rog?
Of course, int the next two years Cameron could blow it, but equally, Labour’s position could get even worse!
139, it’s the same as the vision, obviously:p
140 the affected people won’t notice until they work out it’s cost them about £500 (they’ll pay 11% rather than 1% on more of their income) - for some reason the government aren’t making a big deal about how they are aligning NICs and Income tax
they don’t have the cojones to just subsume NICs into income tax and stop the ridiculous pretence. I hope Cammo does as part of tax simplification but I’m not holding my breath.
138. lol, The only man who an make Comical Ali look like a guardian of the truth!
Mike, I’s sure in 1990, ICM were showing a Labour lead of 19%, not a Tory one…
78/128. Mike
Any idea when the SportingIndex markets might be back up?
I’ve noticed they’ve suspended the London Mayoral election one too, pourquoi?
Why do they always have to childishly suspend markets whenever a few punters get it right.. It’s not like they’re short of profit or anything.
Logic suggests that these polls will dent Ken’s prospects where he is currently “even Stephen” with Boris in the betting. However, the MoL election is something of a one-off, based much more on these two personalities. It’s possibly best therefore to await further London polling evidence.
148 - The Conservatives didnt fully align tax with NICs either. And having worked on a project for some time to do just that I can tell you why - it’s actually quite difficult to do.
151 Casino, You can continue to bet on Spreadfair.
[113][115] While it’s true that the local government pension scheme is fully funded, and so does not contribute to public sector debt, nevertheless it represents a fund which government could take over for other purposes if it wished to.
Beggaring local government pensioners would probably be less unpopular than doing the same to policemen or nurses. But I think we’d need a major financial crisis (e.g. one of the “Big Four” High Street banks failing) before it came to that. Still, it may start to be lobbied for by right-wing commentators and bloggers as an end in itself.
[144] - Ah, yes, that aligns it more closely with the Income tax bands though, doesn’t it?
Let’s not forget YouGov were showing a 13% (and a 12%) Tory lead in December 2007, and they proved illusory…
138
Can’t wait for the narrative the opportunities are endless:
Beef up the plastic bags hotline?
Another invitation to tea for Mrs Thatcher?’
Pretend the troops are coming home from Afghanistan?
Another election stunt?
Lose some more computer disks?
Nationalise another bank?
I thought the threatened tax on plastic bags was a major vote winner. How wrong can you be?
153 oohh it’s a bit difficult so we won’t do it. The war cry of radicals down the ages!!!
NO tax change is simple, particularly for the poor software developers expected to do these things at the drop of a hat - doesn’t mean it shouldn’t happen. A complete and very brave rewrite of the UK tax code is essential to our future competitiveness.
Personally I would abolish all tax except on land ownership - easy to understand hard to evade and simple to collect. Perhaps fortunately for others I will never be in a position to enact this drastic proposal
157, As we didn’t have a real GE to compare them to, I’d say “transient” is a better word than “illusory”.
158, the Tories are 16 points ahead. So what?
:p
157. Illusory in the sense of … ? They weren’t tested.
That said, I never trust polls much in December, July or August due to Christmas and the Summer holidays. March, on the other hand, when the politics season is in full swing, should produce much more reliable results. We also have three permanent party leaders at the moment, which is more than could be said last Autumn.
Evening all
A lot of febrile hubris on here from some Tories balanced by an excellent analysis from David at 107 which I would commend to anyone.
I’m always interested to see how some view politics in terms of the destruction or vilification of opponents while others appreciate the opportunity to provide better governance for the people of this country.
Anyway, my take on this and other things:
http://aloadofoldstodge.blogspot.com/2008/03/is-it-game-over-for-gordon.html
155 - The Govt could take over the local Govt Pension fund for other purposes? On what grounds?
They could change the rules on payouts (for future service) and therefore allow local authorities to reduce employer contributions but they have no right to funds that workers have themselves contributed towards.
Nobody should forget it was those supposedly clever people in the Labour Party who forced out Blair (the most successful Labour leader ever and who was elected for a full term) in order to bring in this genius Gordon Brown.
You couldn’t make it up. It will surely go down in history as the most idiotic decision ever taken in modern times by either of the main 2 parties (maybe 1= with the election of IDS though that was far less important as the Conservatives were not and had no prospect of being in power anyway).
145. Mike, how much “shit” can you bring back from the continent in your car before customs stop you and throw a wobbly??
Always wanted to know this. In *theory* it’s infinite, but in practice it’s a couple of crates of red, a car bootful, or what??
163 - We are also outside of school holidays although the next few weeks will possibly have an effect on polls.
154. Thanks. But I had an open position on SportingIndex I wanted to reassess.
164. most tories on here are the same as myself, we think 16% is far too high but the 9% sounds about right.