Boris takes a 12% lead with YouGov (updated)
March 17th, 2008
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Do the findings mean that it’s now curtains for Ken?
The odds on Boris Johnson becoming the next Mayor of London have tightened sharply following the publication of a new YouGov putting the Henley MP 12% ahead.
The shares are with changes on the last survey a month ago JOHNSON 49% (+5): LIVINGSTONE 37% (-2) : PADDICK 12% (nc). On second preferences YouGov has picked up the same trend that MORI found last month with Boris getting 20% of them and Ken 17%.
The poll was carried out amongst sample of 1,005 Londoners from Wednesday to Friday last week.
Given these numbers it is becoming hard to see how Ken can hold onto the position that he won as an independent in 2000 and was re-elected under the Labour flag in 2004.
Latest prices at 1255 - Johnson 0.55/1. Even at these prices Johnson looks like a great bet.
This article will be updated when more information is available.
Mike Smithson
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Not a surprise given all the help he’s been getting from his pals at the Standard.
1 - Surely that help has been from Ken himself for failing to act decisively but instead try to face down all criticism? If there was nothing to it then the Standard’s position would not matter.
While I doubt if Johnson and Livingstone really will pick up 86% between them on the first round (I think this reflects name recognition, and minor parties will win more than 2%) I’m beginning to wonder now if it will even be close.
I remember a while back, Peter Golds compared it to a US gubernatorial or senatorial election, where an incumbent really has to be a long way ahead at the start of the campaign to have a good chance of being re-elected.
I thought the standard was a poor circulation rag than no one reads?
Ken is still playing 80 politics in the 21st century.
2 No. If the Standard & co, but Boris under equal scrutiny with the same innuendo and rumour mill, Paddick would now be the favorite. Boris has had it easy.
[reposted from previous thread]
The direct importance of the ES is overstated, imo. Does anybody actually buy it? In my experience, the free papers are far more widely read.
All rather good. I put £1000 on Boris yesterday at between 0.92/1 and 0.98/1.
re 1 well they’ve only been reporting the news. If he was squeaky clean - no story. If the government was competent, trusted and not mendacious then no problem getting re-elected either.
If Labour persists in shooting the messenger then things will never recover.
6
Sorry, rubbish, I had this out with PtP weeks ago. ES is very important.
Story of poll here.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-mayor/
“Paddick would now be the favorite.”
Quoi???
9 - But how can it be important when nobody seems to read it?
What date are the elections this year?
5 - You dont have any specific complaints about the Standard’s coverage then? Just that you wish they could dig up some dirt on Boris too?
6 - I dont think it is overstated, those free papers pick up on the Standard’s coverage (and the Standard’s coverage has been driving things like police investigations and Jasper’s resignation which are in turn picked up elsewhere).
11
Because they do a freesheet as well ES lite.
May 1st
3 - The US theory is a product of name recognition. With big electorates it is vital and a challenger must usually spend a lot to get to parity with the incumbent. Plus the incumbent can use their financial advantages to frame their opponent.
This election is completely different. Boris had just as much name recognition to start off with and Ken lacks the financial advantages of a US incumbent. He has also had the one major newspaper go very negative.
This poll is clearly good for Boris but he doesn’t have it in the bag yet. So far most of the focus has been on Ken. If Boris is seen as the front-runner he will likely come under more scrutiny. If Ken and Labour have any sense they will question his competence and ability to represent London. My feeling is that there some of Boris’ support will be soft, people who like him but may not vote for him when it comes down to it.
So Boris is now rightly the favourite, but I wouldn’t write Ken off just yet.
13
Correct, two arrested and some joke outfit called Ethnic Mutual shut down.
Warning – Ethnic Mutual Limited
We have suspended the registration of Ethnic Mutual Limited for three months, effective 14 March 2008. Ethnic Mutual is an exempt charity registered with us as an Industrial and Provident Society.
We took this action because Ethnic Mutual has been unable to satisfy us that it is operating for the benefit of the community, which is a condition of its registration.
I note that Boris Johnson’s rating of 49% in this YouGov poll is exactly the same as the 49% of the Conservatives’ rating in the Sunday Times YouGov poll that Mr Smithson highlighted yesterday. Of course, these probably aren’t comprised of the same people, but the similarity of the result is striking.
Just to clarify my last post, the 49% that the Conservatives scored in the Sunday Times YouGov poll was in the London figures.
13 If they treated each candidate equally, that would be a start. Boris has a record in public life, but has had no scrutiny at all. The ES love Boris, they want him to win and are doing their bit for the effort. No complaints, that’s life. But it is the truth of the situation.
If Boris wins this then I’m sure that the most surprised will be the Tories who chose him as the candidate. If they thought that they really had a chance of winning I’m sure that they would have chosen a different candidate.
Paddick is (slowly) increasing his poll ratings. If the effect of this is that voters are supporting him rather than Ken then Boris could just pinch it.
Paddick is certainly coming across well and I’m sure that he will get a decent polling (up near 20%), but I also think that we will see quite a chunck of support for Greens, Respect etc.
A long way to go yet and I’d never write Ken off.
Jonathan,
You sound just like David Mellor in the mid 90’s. People like Boris and will forgive him some sins. Ken does not have that luxury anymore.
Thats politics for you.
Mike - Why is it that whenever I post, there’s a new thread just started! Anyway as someone who lives in the provinces, the Livingstone/Johnson campaign doesn’t really excite me. So I’ll just repeat what I said at the end of the last one.
This economic crisis could be good news for Britain. Our delusions of grandeur, founded on an over-reliance on financial services and debt, coupled with a poor savings ratio, has only been masking our dreadful levels of productivity, poor infrastructure and lack of skilled workers. The future doesn’t look rosy, but at least we might now be minded to do something about it.
It’s surely a major indictment on New Labour that in a benign economic climate they failed to deal with our strucutral weaknesses and make the case for big government (Blair’s bigest failing). It’s no wonder that Labour supporters, rather like England football fans harking back to ‘66, always go on about the foundation of the NHS. They haven’t really achieved anything since.
Ken will win. It’s the little person who will decide this election not the Evening Standard.
15. Thank you.
Does not give Red Ken much time to riggle out of defeat then going on this poll.
24. Ronnie Corbett ?
re 24. Well the “little person” is tell the pollster that he/she is more likely to vote for Boris. Get your money on now while the betting prices stay reasonable. I’ve just put another £500 on in the past 15 minutes.
24. bernie ecclestone?
24. “It’s the little person who will decide this election”
That’s true but i would also say that an infliencial regional paper also helps set the debate. ES will be a marginal factor - I think the fact that Labour have raped the finances of those in London and ken has egged on the national government in the crime will be Livingstones undoing.
20
Freedom of the press - ain’t it a bitch? Has ES attacked Paddick?
21 - “If Boris wins this then I’m sure that the most surprised will be the Tories who chose him as the candidate. If they thought that they really had a chance of winning I’m sure that they would have chosen a different candidate.”
I disagree entirely - they knew that Ken is a very difficult nut to crack, and that the only way they were going to do it was by taking a gamble on a candidate with character, hence they chose Boris. Stephen Norris never stood a chance for exactly this reason.
Given the dire Labour polls we saw at the weekend, its no surprise that Ken numbers are looking so ropey. Ken Livingstone isn’t your average Labour candidate, because of his profile, but Labour’s worsening poll ratings are bound to have some effect.
Jonathan is very sour about the fact that Ken and Labour are about to be hammered in London by an Old Etonian, Bullingdon Club Tory.
Now the Labour loyalists are blaming the Standard. Nothing to do with ordinary Londoners becoming sick of Ken and Labour. Oh no, it’s all a conspiracy to brainwash poor befuddled voters by a newspaper that most people in the capital don’t even read.
Ken has got away with murder for years and now he’s been found out.
I wonder if Prescott jnr will try it on an as an Independent?:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7299977.stm
Given the arrogance of the the Snr Prescott - it would not surprise me!
23 - Labour definitely wasted the opportunity they had in 1997. They were too cautious and still scared by 1992. But to say they haven’t achieved anything is going a bit far.
They have massively increased spending on public services, introduced the minimum wage and extended workers rights. The Conservatives have agreed to all these changes and pledged not to reverse them. (In fact on occasion they have gone to the left of Labour e.g. higher health spending, more time off for families).
Paddick should start targeting “the little person” with literature saying he is the best person to beat Boris. Think; “could be winning here.” If he started to look more likely to get to second rounds than Ken, he could have a serious break through perhaps picking up more first preferences from Boris. This could be exaggerated if he positions himself as a pair of safe hands, picking up the former Ken conservatives who valued him over Boris for his execuytive experience.
Secondly, think of the psychological boost the LDs would get from winning something. The Lib Dems should be throwing everything at this election. Two big names with big negatives and a chance for a “look Lib Dems are electable” poll boost.
21 - “If they thought that they really had a chance of winning I’m sure that they would have chosen a different candidate.”
The reason they had to get Boris to run was because none of the original candidates had the name recognition to stand much of a chance.
Factors that will decide the vote of J’s ‘little person’:
Out of 10.
Name recognition: Ken 9, Boris 9
Competence/Track record: Ken 6, Boris 3
Likeability: Ken 5, Boris 7
Supporter turnout: Ken 5, Boris 7
Central Organisation: Ken 4, Boris 6
Press impact: Ken 4, Boris 5
Choice of issues: Ken 3, Boris 7
Local Organisation: Ken 2, Boris 8
Optimism index: Ken 2, Boris 8
Result: Boris landslide
36 - I wish that was realistic but repeat after me: “Paddick has no chance whatsoever”
34 - He has endorsed the candidate and wished him well. Whatever else you might say about the Prescotts, they are tribally Labour.
Boris now 1.51 - zowee !
40. they are tribally Labour - very true. Prescott & co. have done very well out of the Labour party and its occasional relationship with government.
Sporting bet still have 3/4 tho..
so glad i got on when he was ~1.5/1
35
“They have massively increased spending on public services,”
In the YouGov poll at the weekend 78% vs 12% think Labour waste money.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/budget_2008/article3559274.ece
So I wouldn’t try selling that as a plus for Labour.
Boris has great name recognition, even Livingstone calls him Boris in a sneery sort of way.
No one calls Paddick anything except ‘Brian Paddick’. What a boring name: it could hardly be worse, it’s about exciting as the thought as Edwina and Major having awful, fumbling, dusty sex in a store room in Whitehall full of buff coloured folders and HB pencils.
27: I still think the “polls” are wrong on this one, Mike. That’s an awful lot of money to be throwing away!
20 - C’mon Jonathan, Livingstone has had a very supine BBC behind him for years! This is just the first time any media have really exposed him to scrutiny.
Spending more money is not an achievement in itself! Blair jumped on a bandwagon that wanted higher spending and more social justice and he was very lucky with the economic climate at the time. But for all his powers of persuasion, he did virtually nothing to shift the attitudes in this country.
47. The good news is that you will be able to back your man at a much better price now. If you have the courage of your comments.
45 - I wasn’t arguing that these were necessarily positive things (although I support them), but they are achievements. They have also set the political agenda and forced the Conservatives to agree to maintaining spending. Of course people think public services can be more efficient, and that is what the Conservatives will promise. But they won’t argue for public spending cuts.
33. Typical Nulabour response since last Autumn.
McBroons “vision” is actually as follows:
“in the face of any criticism or yet another Labour cock up just keep repeating:
..Its not our fault, it is [ Then Please Insert as appropriate]:
1)right wing conspiracy..
2)right wing media bias
3)Bullingdon Club and “Toffs” in general
4)global credit crunch
5)Racists
6)Tony Blair / former Balirite ministers
7)John Major / pevious Tory governments
8)David Cameron as Norman Lamonts chief economic adviser…
9)Global warming
9)Terroists
” Under no circumstance admit the truth which is truth..
Despite 11 years of spin Nulabour were in fact Old Labour after all and what fools they have all been for falling for it”.
Like any other failed Labour government..billions of pounds in tax rises…virtually no improvement in pubic services and public finances in a disastrous state with the Conservatives left to pick up the pieces..
Sadly as predictable as what is surely about to be a new poll By Roger of London tax drivers..
45, 49 - You’re right that the government has not made a clear case for higher taxes, but they did for higher spending. The 2001 campaign was based around the idea of more spending on schools and hospitals. On attitudes there is almost always a swing away from what the government has done. In the eighties there was a swing to the left on some issues. More people at the end thought that the unemployment was the fault of the economy rather than individuals. Similarly the increase in spending by this government means more people are in favour of tax cuts than was the case in 1997. The pendulum has swung.
This is what 10 years of Labour government and a London Labour Mare get you:
http://uk.tv.yahoo.com/blog/article/4127/
I thought Labour had banned Fox hunting?
- 
- 
What sort of country do we live in where the police want to arrest a hand puppet! I don’t hear gutless Labour MP’s saying prosecuting a hand puppet is a waste of time like they did with the Cash for honours inquiry.
51.
Blair/Brown 1994-97… public row with old left over Clause 4.
Blair/Brown 1997-2008… series of union-friendly ‘workers’ rights’ laws plus minimum wage and ‘bungs’ for ‘modernisation’.
Cameron/Osborne 2005-08… public row with old right over taxes and public spending.
Cameron/Osborne 2010-2022… reduced public spending and ‘targeted’ tax cuts on business and families.
The old right simply don’t get it. They are the Aunt Sallys and are playing their role to perfection. I sometimes wonder whether Norman Tebbit and Simon Heffer are in on it.
On second thoughts, Norman could be in on it, but Heffer is so eaten up by jealousy and spite about Cameron that his judgement is genuinely impaired.
51
“I wasn’t arguing that these were necessarily positive things (although I support them), but they are achievements.”
If they weren’t positive, then they were mistakes.
54. Come on Nick Palmer MP, be the first Labour MP to condemn this persecution of a hand puppet by the police!
55. cant stand heffer, he wants tax cuts, and he wants them NOW! whether its a good idea or not, berk.
Obama gets another super delegate :
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/
b/f mayor market has been cleaned out. Some Bojo at 1.52 tho.
52 - This Labour government has clearly not been a failure by most historical standards. The economy has grown for 11 years. In 1997 our GDP per capita was 7th in the G7, we are now 2nd only to the US. Employment is the highest in our history. Inflation has been low, and the recent rise has been modest given the huge commodity inflation.
Rights for workers have been strengthened. People have more rights to maternity and paternity leave, as well as flexible working. The minimum wage has helped some of the most vulnerable in society. Public services are better. Nobody waits 2 years for a cataract operation anymore.
Of course you can contest the record, and you may disagree with some of the policy decisions, but this government has not been a disaster. It has made mistakes as all governments do but it has got some things right and it has pursued policies that many people in this country support.
The emphasis on “spending” rather than “attainment” sums up the failures of Blair and Brown and as the Sunday Times poll shows is finally entering the narrative.. LABOURhave always been excellent at spending money but like all other labour givernments useless at having anything to show for it at the end of the day other than failing public finances and a large group of people dependent entirely on the state with little or no incentive to change their status quo.
61. We’re mortgaged up to the eyeballs tho - how are we going to pay that back ?
SportingBet still go Bojo 1.75, when Betfair settles he will be at about 1.70 so worth a go with SB.
54. Seriously what sort of country do we live in where money is wasted on the police investigating such things. I don’t want to give anyone any ideas but maybe someone should report Captain Pugwash to the media for refrences about Master Bates and Seamen Stains?
Don’t forget the second of the Smithsonian iron laws:
“A rogue poll is always one you don’t agree with”
65. Captain Pugwash to the Police (Fraudien Slip maybe?) for refrences about Master Bates and Seamen Stains?
61. You miss entirely the point (though I certainly contest your list of “achievements”). (Unfortunately) this government has not by any means finished yet..lets wait to 2010 before we see how much its got “right”…
61 “But this government has not been a disaster. It has made mistakes as all governments do but it has got some things right …”
You have not mentioned the most serious and corrosive failure of all — Iraq. Lying to take us to war was a new low (far, far worse than anything the Tories did).
Just as Watergate is synonymous with Richard Nixon, so Iraq is synonymous with New Labour.
55 - That is certainly what the Tories are planning to do. They will cut taxes when they can, but they will preserve much of what Labour has done at least until a 2nd term.
Given an unexpected surplus to spend a Labour government will usually invest it in public services or use it to help those in poverty. A Conservative government will use it to cut taxes. Personally a good public square is a bigger priority than individual tax cuts so I support Labour. But I understand those who hold the opposite view. That’s why I find it difficult to understand why people on here are scathing about those that happen to hold a different view on tax/public spending policy.
64. betinternet have both Boris and Ken at 5/6
they haven’t “invested” though have they. 10 years of investment and there are still not enough good schools.
10 years and still the NHS has problems with infection control. And still this government blames the previous one. Thats why the “investment” narrative does not work anymore - the public have stopped believing it.
70. Personally a good public square is a bigger priority than individual tax cuts.
Nobody dioubts your “good intentions”, however if you one of the many hardpressed individuals suffering from falling net disposable income or indeed do not even break even and are currently accrueing debt. A good public square is your last priority - I would speculate that you have good personal fianances. Unfortunatly those in work, with children, retired or on a fixed income do not share your utopian ideals!
64
Good spot, that’s 1.83 in new money.
69 - Agree entirely. Iraq was a foreign policy blunder of the highest order. Interestingly though the Conservatives also supported it, and more Labour MPs opposed than any other party.
63 - We’re not mortgaged up to the eyeballs. Private debt is fairly high but not unmanageable when viewed as a ratio to assets. Public debt is also low by international standards. Undoubtedly the next few years will see lower spending increases, but a budget deficit of less than 3% of GDP is not a major problem especially when it involves investment in infastructure.
68 - So you don’t think that moving our GDP per capita from 7th to 2nd in the G7 is an achievement?
Meanwhile V …. I note over at Mrs Dale’s Dairy that the Chief Udder Tugger is still taking ads for Lord Ashcroft of Belize’s books and hasn’t had a pip to say about the Tory U turn on peerage residency rules.
Not that the fact that Ashcroft donates the odd shilling to the Conservtaives has anything whatsoever to do with this complete change of heart. How anyone could insinuate such base motives to the new clean whiter than white (sic) Cameron led Conservative Party is quite beyond me.
75. G7 is not a very good international view point top look at. Apart from the US. all the economies you factor in have been in dire straights for years. If you look at the wider mark the UK econmy is not doing as well as you say. Also France and more than likely Germany have just overtaken us due to sterlings relative decline against the Euro
! You need to check your dogma before cighting it!
67. No reference to Roger the Cabin Boy.
Brown cannot escape some of the responsibility for the budget deficit created over the last ten years, or the structual imbalances in the UK. Nu Lab could have done more to address some of the causes of the trade imbalances but choose not to.
76. As Ed Balls would say: So what?!
75 “Iraq was a foreign policy blunder of the highest order. ”
There will be no reversal in Labour’s fortunes until there has been a proper reckoning of the Iraq blunders. The bill will be presented and will have to be paid.
“… more Labour MPs opposed than any other party.”
Stop spinning. There are many more Labour MPs than any other party — so your statistic is meaningless party guff. 100 per cent of Lib Dems, 100 per cent Nationalists opposed the debacle. And, the Conservatives can at least point out that they were LIED to.
Who did the LYING? NEW LABOUR, NEW LABOUR, NEW LABOUR …. People like you Kieran and people like Nick Palmer and people like Jonathan.
[21] - “Paddick is (slowly) increasing his poll ratings. If the effect of this is that voters are supporting him rather than Ken then Boris could just pinch it.”
Not really, Boris has almost enough on first preferences that Ken -> Paddick switchers are irrelevant, which they are if they vote Ken with their second preference anyway.
What might be more important is if Paddick can present himself as better placed to stop Boris, and the Tories. You’d expect more of Ken’s second preferences to go to Paddick than vice versa, and if Boris wasn’t seen as the only way to get rid of Ken, then it might erode his vote.
I don’t think that this is going to happen - not enough time remains, and Ken has the advantage of incumbency - yet I still think it might be the only way to stop a Tory getting in.
It will also be where the voting system works against the left: a lot of voters for the Greens and/or Respect will have their second preference for Ken, on the assumption that he will be in the second round and they’d rather have Ken than a Tory. A sickener for them if it ended up being Paddick against Boris instead.
37. Boris was the candidate of last resort. Even Brian Paddick was asked to stand before they had to settle for Bojo. The fact that he has been banned from alcohol during the campaign shows the confidence that the Conservative leadership have in him.
To argue as some here are that the Evening Standard and associated paper’s campaign has not had an effect is laughable. As said before, paid for editions of the ES, plus the much wider circulated free version, plus copies of both read second hand, plus the website, plus the ES boards on every corner, has a huge effect. Just look at the approval ratings Ken had in the autumn before the campaign began.
As the Sunday Times article revealed, Boris campaign is to be ‘not Ken’ and to keep out of trouble. So far it looks like a winning strategy, but I doubt he can manage it for four years in power.
Obviously a pretty bad poll for Ken - though on a brighter note he’s clearly doing 10% better than the Labour national share according to YouGov (whcih given the way yougov split should have equalled a Labour vote share of around 20% in London!
I ws reading last night about the populist mayors and governors of the south, and how theyy used to run against the “elite” who controlled the newspapers, radio etc, who would regulalry accuse them of corruption and so on (Huey Long, Earl Long, Tillman, etc etc).
If I were Ken I’d be very tempted to turn this into a battle of the people versus the powerful. “The Standard and their friends are trying to buy this election for Boris -why?”.
Boris is a cypher, this argument would go, but a cypher for who?
I’m not recommending this tactic, but it’s certainly been effective for people under attack by the “elite” in the past. (cf Ken himself, Galloway, Jerry Brown, Huey Long, Bob LaFollette, Jim Curley, Jimmy Walker….)
Kieran.Spending money is easy. Spending wisely is what we are talking about-this seems impossible for you to grasp.
Investment and spending is not sufficient but it is necessary. Of course you can’t solve a problem JUST by throwing money at it, but you need a certain level of spending to have a chance.
Take the NHS. You could never achieve a world-class service spending only 6% of GDP. At 9-10% you have a chance. Then it becomes a question about how to achieve efficency. That is what the political debate is about now because it is accepted that it should be a priority. The NHS has improved significantly in the last decade but the government has made mistakes, but there are no easy answers.
On schools again lower class sizes help but addressing educational underachievement goes wider. If children grow up in poverty, have families that don’t value learning and go to schools where they only meet other similar children it is not surprising they underachieve. One of the major problems is that we have social segregation in many areas, which leads to good schools with better intakes and poor schools with worse intakes. These differences become ingrained and are hard to turn around. The Academy program is trying to deal with this but it isn’t easy. Education policy is more complicated than just spending more, but again without spending more there is no chance of success.
83.If I were Ken I’d be very tempted to turn this into a battle of the people versus the powerful.
Will he take on rupurt murdoch as well?
Poetic justice in a way, when Livingstone has spent millions on public money on “The Londoner”, a publication supposedly there to communicate the work of the GLA but systematically biased towards promoting his political agenda. I’ve never understood why there hasn’t been a serious legal challenge to this when it amounts to such a corrupt abuse of office.
86 One slight problem - Ken IS one of the Powerful. He is the Establishment figure in London politics. And his cronies and placemen don’t help.
83. There are signs that Ken is already heading in this direction. See his attack on the Daily Mail:
http://www.london.gov.uk/view_press_release.jsp?releaseid=16434
Meanwhile VI …. Alistair Darling’s efforts to find more cash for public spending meet with some unexpected problems :
http://www.cybersalt.org/cl_images/1zzzzxa/cars/carpiggygas.jpg
87 - I agree with the sentiment but dont a lot of councils do this as well? I get something similar from my local council (though they dont have a single, high-profile figure to promote as systematically as ‘The Londoner’ promotes Ken).
erm, ken is in power, so trying to make it out to be the people against the powerful is, well, daft. Ken is a member of the governing party and the mayor, and they’ve already tried the toff attack on boris, it failed miserably.
85. “The NHS has improved significantly” - I don’t think it has and i use the NHS, frankly the waste has been massive and the whole funding formulae has been blown out of the water by another failure in Labour’s management of the UK: Mass Immigration. ANY INVESTMENT PER HEAD BY DEFINITION HAS BEEN DILUTED BY LABOUR’S LOSS OF COUNTROL OF IMMIGRATION.
“government has made mistakes, but there are no easy answers” - So Labour have had their turn screwed it up and should be sent to opposition. In the real world if you screw up on a job you get sacked……….. Even in a *gentle socialist utopia* that is Labours Britain - people still get sacked and that is what many recomend of Labour.
Barclays head for £4 a share
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/shares/3/498/0/default.stm
I think that this result is going to be close, and that on the day after Polling Day the losing candidates will be blaming the electoral system, and the fact that voters did not know how to use it effectively.
And labours current policies are doing nothing to make schools better. Just like Browns meaningless promise a couple of budgets ago too match state spending per pupil to public school spending. The detail was that it was the 2006 figure to matched by 2010. What use is that?
91 - I see your point and I think the line can sometimes be blurred: Councils, legitimately, communicate what they’re doing and try to make a success of that. I think there’s a danger at the edge that you get into trying to vindicate political policy decisions rather than do an operational communication. But Ken is way over the line, however hazy it is, there are open attacks on opposition to his policies in “The Londoner” and I don’t think that can be justified.
I think to some extent is mindset is an old far-left democratic-centralist one and he believes on some level that once he’s won an election, criticism of him is illegitimate because it aims to thwart the will of the majority.
94,
Roger proves his worth yet again.
Wow the abuse reaches a new low on pb.com. Need to reign in the crazies Mike! Being accused of lying yet again (WTF BTW?) is one thing, but being accused of sounding like David Mellor is something else! Surprised “Mellor” isn’t on the banned list.
94
wall st has opened much better than futures predicted.
I agree with those who say that this Government has been a failure - but it has been very much a Government of the right of centre not the left! We have now had 29 years of right wing Governments of different shades - why should a further swing to the right bring about an improvement?
No Jonathan your making the same mistake as Mellor in the 90’s did. He said what your saying now.
82. I actually do buy and read the Standard. It’s not the world’s greatest paper by any means but it’s not the Mail with a few bits about London thrown in either. The Friday magazine usually has one or two interesting articles and Keith Dovkants has to be one of the best investigative reporters around today.
Sweet lord, though. “BoJo?” If that’s the nickname I’m going to be reading about for the next four years, sign me up for the “anybody but BoJo” bandwagon.
[80] - Iraq was a failure that goes beyond the coterie at the top of the Blair government. There was a failure by the opposition to scrutinise the government properly. Given the concerns raised before the even by former weapons inspectors it was a dereliction of their duty as Her Majesty’s official opposition that the Tories under IDS tried to score political points by accusing the government of being weak in their actions.
The Labour backbenches were also lied to, and more of them opposed than the Tories.
Does anyone remember which way Cameron went?
With Ken Clarke and Robin Cook opposing, it’s almost as though there was a generational shift from the old decent types to the new media-savvy, “can’t possibly appear weak by opposing a war” clones.
Of course, we’re still being governed by the people responsible. Before Brown took over, I remember some people discussing his alleged opposition to the war, which of course he could have prevented us being involved in had he resigned along with Cook.
5: Jonathon, Ken has had the whole Labour machine backing him from Compass to Blears who have chucked everything they can at Boris. Complaining about the ES is a little hypocritical.
83: I’m not sure if Ken would want to be like that list of corrupt people.
Ken’s problem is Ken.
85
If you tell me the NHS is “world class”, you’ll be a laughing stock.
Billions have been wasted… and we are now seeing country wide cuts because spending has been mismanaged. Even the dumbest of voters can see that.
As for arguing about the poor, the best thing the poor can have is a job. Which pays a wage which is not eaten up by taxes and reclaimed benefits. I nned hardly say the latter is not true and that immigrants have got 75% of all new jobs created.
That’s not a mistake… it’s TOTAL economic incompetence.
The poor are about to get much poorer thanks to Mr Brown and inflation.. which hits basic needs like food and energy much more than anything else. Thanks Mr Brown for that as well.
101. I would not call the first Nationalisation of a Bank since world war II a right of centre government.
Wasting Hundreds of Billions of pounds on badly thought out and uncontrolled public spending is still the left wing of old. THe difference is they (Labour) have shifted the rape of the taxpayer from direct taxes to less noticeable forms such as on vehicles, houses etc , etc.
This poll is also good for those of us who still have an open bet on Labour losing a by-election as the first thing that will happen under a Brown premiership…I have a reasonable amount on at 5/1. Boris has said that he will stand down in Henley if he gets the mayoralty and the Tories must be big favourites to hold this seat (even in a by-election), with a 2005 majority of c 12,800.
Say what you like about the Fed - Bear Stearns was bought by JP Morgan - it was that or the wall.
Compare and contrast with Lloyds offer to buy Northern Rock - the govt bottled it.
103. It looks like the ‘anybody but BoJo’ campaign has already started.
http://www.stopboris.org
102 I think David Mellor had less grounds for complaining about being called “David Mellor” than me.
BTW There is without doubt a very specific, high profile campaign against Ken in the ES. That’s life. And it’s up to Ken to win despite it.
99 My recollection is that our host Mike Smithson used much stronger language in describing New Labour’s behaviour over Iraq (if memory serves, “war criminals”).
Anyhow, Dave Mellor is one of the most dislikeable politicians of his generation — but he just lied to cover up an affair, he didn’t lie to take the country to War.
So, you’re right, Jonathan. It is completely out-of-order.
It is completely out-of-order for a politician lying about who he sleeps with to be compared to someone who has acted as an apologist for New Labour War crimes.
80 - Do not call me a liar. I opposed the Iraq war all the way through and was disappointed that the government took the action that they did. You’re right that the government must take responsibility and I completely understand why people voted against Labour in 2005 because of Iraq.
There is little point in continuing the debate with the Tory posters. They are unwilling to acknowledge that reasonable people may disagree with their assessment of the government, or that it has done anything right. On education and health for example the government has had successes and failures - the record is grey not black and white. The key question is how would the Conservatives do any better. How would they eradicate waiting lists? How would they make all schools good?
The part of this site dedicated to discussing political trends is interesting and informative. The vitriolic abuse though gets in the way far too often.
Kieran Spending more and more money is not an achievement. Anyone can do it. In fact everyone has been doing it. Trouble is, its not their money they are spending.
88/92. Ken in power? Yes, So were all the candidates I listed.
The campaign theme in these circumstances is usually something along the lines of “these B*****ds are out to get me because I dare to be on your side”.
Incidentally, if anyones interested in US politics and US populism, I heartily recommend “The Earl of Louisiana”. It’s about Earl Londg attempt to get himself out of the asylum his wife had had committed him to, so he could win re-election as governor (it’s more complicated than that of course..), but it’s also about civil rights, money in politics, power and it’s abus.e Beautifully written.
Read a sample here, and enjoy…
http://tinyurl.com/3aozny
11. Count yourself lucky - David Mellor had a puppet on spitting image that had green breath!
Maybe we should get Nick Palmer to request the police arrest the production team of spitting image and ban the program……………..thinking about, did spitting image not end round about the time Labour won in 1997?!! 
114. Correct - Nulab is like Heather Mills McCartney - spending Pauls money does not make her a “powerhouse economy”.
I picked up Boris at 1,5 to 1 based on my rationale that combining his popularity amongst the young with the Tory senior citizen vote was a winning combination. Nothing has altered my opinion since. I think Boris is actually the best candidate that the Conservatives have as he can reach parts other Tories cant! Labour has tried to ridicule him but this has not worked as he is the first to make the joke.
I am based in Scotland but I believe that this election is significant. Just like in Wales and Scotland Labour has found that a centralised control structure alienates the little people. The London assembly has policing and transportation under its control but may well push to have a greater say in education and health just like the devolved assemblies. If Boris has a large popular mandate it will be hard for the government to resist their demands.
“In 1997 our GDP per capita was 7th in the G7, we are now 2nd only to the US.”
I’d dispute those figures. We were above Italy in 1997, and on a par with France (we overtook them in 1998). We’re not above Canada, now, so it looks more like joint 5th to 3rd, as far as I can tell.
114. 117. It must be disappointing that nothing would change under the Tories then?
106 - The NHS is not world-class but it is better than it was in 1997. Today there are thousands more doctors and nurses and thousands more operations than ever before. Of course, things could improve and be better but I don’t see any answers coming from the conservatives except slogans like ‘cleaner hospitals’. It is much easier to complain than work out viable alternatives.
Unemployment has fallen under Labour. Employment is at record levels. Yes a lot of those jobs have gone to immigrants, but a lot of people have emigrated to take jobs abroad and that is never taken into account. People who want a job have more chances and opportunities than ever before.
[101] - Well, indeed. Hearing people talk about a “gentle socialist utopia” on here is a frankly bizarre, but perhaps revealing, insight into the paranoid minds of the British right-wing.
With respect to Boris taking over the Mayoralty, which appears now to be very likely, this provides an opportunity and a danger for Cameron. The Olympics preparations are a potentially very high-profile banana skin, and I’m sure there are myriad ways in which Boris could make the Tories less a government-in-waiting as a risk best not to take.
One would think that their best strategy would be to send many of the bright young things they’ve lavishly, and effectively, recruited to the shadow chancellor’s office, etc, to run the ship for Boris and ensure he doesn’t mess anything up.
114 - I’ve already acknowledged that. Spending is necessary but not sufficient.
119. And others.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28PPP%29
Puts us fourth, behind Germany, Japan and the US. But stil an improvement.
119 - This suggests otherwise. Indeed it suggests we’re on the verge of overtaking the US as well!
http://www.oef.com/Free/pdfs/oxfordeconomicspressreleasejan08.pdf
betinternet have boris at 1.83. This is lower than the price to lay Boris on betfair (1.67)….
Free money.
Kieran, you make a fair defence of this government and maybe I’m naive in thinking a progressive government could truly transform this country. I think your point about GDP is not really telling, our growth has been fine but nothing more. On education, you are quite right, but this government seems to have been far more concerned with shiny new buildings/computers etc than worrying about what they are being taught. As for university, they merely want to see 50% going there. What students do when they are there, or how long they last before dropping out isn’t worried about.
After 11 years the facts are: a poor education system, poor transport system, a fairly poor health service by western standards, social disintegration, and the one seeming success of modern Britain - the economy - fast sinking into the mud. I’m not saying it is all Blair’s fault (though he can’t really be absolved on Iraq, can he?), and it may be that these things represent decades of relative decline, but at best Blair did little to allieve the troubles we faced. His legacy will be small.
121. social mobility has dropped considerably, and the gap between rich and poor has widened alarmingly over the last 11 years. Instead of helping the poor get out of poverty they’ve given them handouts to stay there, while the education system slowly breaks down as it is asked to do more and more for the child, and having changes forces upon it at every turn.
I wonder if Boris will let Cameron’s people run London in exchange for a cabinet post at a later date. Scarey thought, Boris running the NHS, defence. Yuk.
112 Oh well. Sorry you feel that way. Not sure we’ve “spoken” before, but clearly I disagree with you and reject your accusations. When the time comes vote for the other guy. But for now, lets keep things civil.
128. Absolute poverty has decreased. Relative poverty has increased. People have got richer, but the poor have gotten richer slower. The trickle down in action.
124. We’re apparently 7th out of 7 on quality of life.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quality-of-life_index#The_Economist_Intelligence_Unit.E2.80.99s_quality-of-life_index.2C_2005
The announcement about the Iraq public enquiry, call me cynical but is that timed as a response to the weekend’s polls? Will it make any difference?
I was been civil, I was pointing out the futility of blaming the press for not doing what you expect of them.
Enough, already!
* Some things have got better
* A lot of things have stayed the same
* Some things have got worse
127 - As said upthread I don’t argue that this Labour government could have achieved much more, but it is a case of seeing the glass as half-full or half-empty. Things aren’t perfect in this country but we’re not a basket case either, despite 11 years of Labour government.
128 - Where is the evidence for a drop in social mobility? By its nature we won’t know what effect this government has had for at least another 10/20 years. Benefits have not increased under Labour. Tax credits have, and the minimum wage has helped make work pay. There are still problems - those on low incomes have too high a marginal tax rate and the way housing benefit works can be a disincentive to work.
128
Your point about children is compelling. Mini Asbos for kids…
A command and control economy does not solve social problems.. it alienates local communities and leaves them with no personal stake in the future..
No personal stake = no willingness to improve..
81: Yes, this is why the SV voting system is a farce. If the mayoral vote was AV instead, then left-leaning voters like Greens could preference their votes so it didnt matter which way round Paddick and Ken were. However, Labour fiddled the system to what they thought would help them and prevent a Lib Dem coming through the middle to beat Labour, without considering it might ensure a Tory win if Labour did very badly…
131. We also have the second lowest public debt, (as proportion of GDP)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt
131 - Reducing relative poverty is like running up a down escalator. A growing economy creates a moving target. The tax system has been used to effect a mild redistribution but this has been overwhelmed by changes to income distribution which the government can do little about.
Social mobility is worse under labour.
http://cep.lse.ac.uk/about/news/IntergenerationalMobility.pdf
122. “gentle socialist utopia” - I was joking it is called wit!
121. Today there are thousands more doctors and nurses and thousands more operations than ever before. - There is also a larger population both through demographics and more importantly through mass immigration. Labour are guilt of not planning joined up government. Labour has allowed Immigration to distort the demands on the NHS and more importantly the spending per head on the indigenous population.
The Dow Ones is up, very marginally. Just 4.8 points at present, but much better than it has been.
Tory Troll - thanks for pointing us to that anti-Boris website. Interestingly, whoever is behind it seems very keen to conceal his or her identity. The trail leads back to a dodgy outfit in Arizona that specialises in anonymous domain-hosting services.
Ken’s Socialist Action cronies must be getting desperate. All their £100,000+ salaries are about to go down the drain.
Damnit, the Dow Jones, not the Dow Ones.
125 That’s based on GDP as measured by market exchange rates (which can fluctuate wildly), rather than GDP as measured by purchasing power, which economists generally reckon to be a more accurate measure of respective living standards. The Treasury Select Committee publishes a useful paper each year, showing the living standards of OECD member countries relative to our own, on a historic basis. This shows us falling behind Italy in 1979, and overtaking them in 1994, and reaching parity with France in 1997 (we were 20% behind in 1979). Since then, we have overtaken Japan, and possibly the former West Germany, but not the US or Canada.
Any measure of GDP per head based on market exchange rates would have shown us way down in 1993, because sterling fell sharply after leaving the ERM.
Kieran 800,000 jobs have been added to the government payroll since 1997 with quite a lot more added to those who service those jobs such as management consultants, trainers, personnel advisers, accountants, cleaners, technicians and so on.
So its not surprising unemployment has gone down when, and you must do what the government do to make you point stick, you don’t count those who are economically inactive including those on disability benefit.
Is that borrowed money well spent?
80% of jobs created, if I recall correctly, have gone to immigrants who have been drawn here by those jobs and the welfare environment. They put pressure on housing and social services which requires more government borrowing and spending.
800,00 jobs in export based or import replacement industry strengthening those sectors over the last decade would have been wonderful. Instead we have had the Flim Flam economic miracle.
135. Please don’t believe your own dogma on employment. The number of people i know who are able well educated and failed by the economy is truely shocking. The economy in this country has not worked for the generations who have thousands of years history in this country…….
2.6 million on Incapicity benefit. 450k backlog of asylum cases. Great record.
118 - I’m a big fan of Boris, but this poll doesn’t really support your claim that “Boris is actually the best candidate that the Conservatives have as he can reach parts other Tories cant!” He polls exactly in line with the Conservatives’ polling in London as set out in the Sunday Times YouGov poll data.
140 - ‘Intergenerational mobility fell markedly over time in Britain, with there being less mobility for a cohort of people born in 1970 compared to a cohort born in 1958.’
There is no evidence yet about mobility of people born in the 1980s and 1990s who will be most affected by this government.
145 - Fair enough Sean, it is not clear cut and there are different interpretations. My original point still holds - we have been going up international league tables rather than down in our economic performance.
141 - People seem to forget that without immigration the NHS would have suffered a staffing crisis long ago.
G from last thread..
It WASN’T brave of Gordon to order an enquiry into Iraq. Surprisingly the Today programme[!] poured cold water on it this am.
According to Humphreys Tony Blair never ruled out having one but said he wouldn’t consider it whilst the troops were in action.
Gordon has said we will have one…….some time……in the future……..no time scale.
After the GE?
In the same way we will be having a referendum then?
Merely an PR attempt at ‘detoxification’ [in the spirit of apeing the Tories, he has started tjis one before they have left office].
According to Humpers [I nearly fell out of bed when I heard him] some might say ‘there isn’t much difference’ie. between the two positions.
Can you imagine if we have a Tory Govt during an enquiry? They will want every lie/deceiption etc hung out for public scrutiny. Never mind - the Opposition will be able to say, we asked for it first!
Re Gordon being pants and being unable to present himself otherwise.
- he is in so much trouble now, he needs someone out there fighting for him. He can’t do it himself without confirming some of the worse opinions of him. Only man who could have done it is the one he knifed in the back. Its all very Shakespearian.
Re Nick Palmer’s comment that Govt get the blame for the economy fair or not - it is fair when you claim to have ended the economic cycle? You can’t claim you can hold back the tide and then say its the seas fault when it comes in and drowns people.
143. I’m not so sure about that. It looks like it is an offshoot of one of the anti-boris pages on facebook.
67. and 78. The fact that there are still people trying to perpetuate an old discredited myth about the names of characters in “Captain Pugwash” is even more ridiculous than the idea that Ken and Boris will get 86% of the votes in the first round.
Could someone please tell me the current SportingIndex spread on BJ?
‘The odds on Boris Johnson becoming the next Mayor of London have tightened’
Just like Ken’s sphincter musc