The Evening Standard poll is just out
April 28th, 2008
Well done Don
The first preference shares BORIS 46% (up 2%) and KEN 35% (down 2). After second preference YouGov are saying it is 55% to 45%.
This puts the internet pollster totally out of line with MORI and MRUK which are both reporting that Ken is in the lead.
I cannot recall a time when the polls have been so out of line in a critical election.
The YouGov figures are so emphatic that it is hard to see a Ken victory.
Latest betting is here.
Mike Smithson
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Time to leave London, then.
Well done Done.
And with that, we can call this contest over?
Can we create an honorary post of Tipmaster General for Don please?
All your votes are belong to Boris.
It will certainly be interesting to see how this turns out. Not just because of the result itself, but also the effect it has on the pollsters. I do hope Yougov are right, if only because it’ll make White look like the pillock he is.
Well done Don
If you ever hear about any Scottish polls then we are all ears!
So, the final discrepancy between the MORI and Yougov polls is, what, 13%?
That’s just silly.
Like it or not, one of those two’s reputation is days away from being shattered for a significant period of time.
Such is polling. It’s a painful business.
betfair is back
On these numbers, it would actually be a very comfortable win for Boris, wouldn’t it?
Don did actually come over as being honest, and somewhat apologetic for what he was posting, although the false e-mail address told against him. But, he was telling the truth, and full marks for that.
Interesting that someone in the know actually posted it here. I believe we were all rightly sceptical but those who were totally dismissive should be a little bit more humble in the future.
1. Goodbye, make sure you book a ticket for Livingstone as well
@9:
I rather get the impression that Don was unsure himself of the veracity of his claim. That just made it all the more intriguing.
Thank goodness. I was getting distinctly nervous - even a glove puppet has feelings!
Two terms is enough.
Why oh why don’t political leaders understand this?
2. It’s all over. If I was a Tory, I wouldn’t even bother going to the polls on Thursday.
11 0 clock ticks- the witching hour has hit us. Don’s preternatural tipping qualities are confirmed. And is betfair up?
The pbCOM Don Vinci Code- a veritable page turner
At 10:14 this morning Spreadfair were at:
Boris 18.2 - 19.4
Ken 15.8 - 17.0
Brian 0.2 - 0.4
Now beginning to move on the YouGov publication. FAST!!!:
Boris 18.8 - 19.4
Ken 15.4 - 17.0
Brian 0.2 - 0.4
http://www.spreadfair.com/
@13:
PRAISE ALMIGHTY DON. HE IS YOUR LORD AND MASTER. SHOWER HIM WITH GIFTS AND PRAISE.
10.- the problem with that is you then start beliving anything anyone says, and very soon people will say anything and it will be belived.
17 - Huh?!?
16, yes it is
Well done Don, although I still wish you had made yourself verifiable by Mike, who is hardly likely to leak names.
6 Martin Coxall You are right. Mori Vs Yougov.
That is the real fight that political betting needs to focus on.
There are serious financial implications for the loser.
@15:
You little tinker.
13- well done Don. You have now achieved godlike status on pbCOM. You are on pbCOM’s tipster of the year
Ladbrookes now offering 6/4 on Ken. I’m off down the bookies.
13. Well done Don! I called in your favour just before the pudding proved you right. However, as per your original post, it doesn’t resolve the issue as to which is the most accurate pollster.
15 You are not. And hopefully they will.
Rather oddly in the past 5 minutes Boris’s price has actually moved out on Betfair from 1.57 (which I was buying up) to 1.6
Well I’m disappointed, as many will know I really don’t want Boris to win.
So what has changed in the last few days? Boris was poor on Question Time, with some of his suppoters ringing in to complain about that well-known bully David Dimbleby. This could well be a rogue poll.
Mr Smithson, as you decided to put the willies up the MORIites by telling them “that is the poll you will be judged on”, are you gonna do the honours to Peter Kellner too?
Let’s try and get them all having restless nights between now and Friday.
£223 now available at 1.61
@30:
Question Time doesn’t matter. Those watching would, by and large, already know which way they planned to vote.
As long as Boris came through gaffe-free, he was fine.
This poll is for the Evening Standard, who hate Ken.
This is one poll on it’s own. Unless there are other polls verifying the change, I’d be sceptical. The complacency of many Tories on here is amazing.
Did YouGov only poll Kensington and Chelsea?
Nice one Don.
You certainly have a bright future and I am sure we are all pleased to see that”you love this site”
I hope you have caned the bookies
*cough* Martin Coxall, I think you owe Don a small apology with your talk of criminal offences, compliance officers and market abuse…
“The complacency of many Tories on here is amazing”.
I don’t think this is true at all. I, along with many other tories, do not know which way this mayoral contest is going to go. All very exciting/nervous.
All the cynics who said the polls would converge are wrong, unless ICM has another which gives Ken the hump too.
Good picture Mike. Pre-makeover. The way Rod Liddle likes him. Ah bless.
30. I dont think boris was poor on QT. he did the important thing. he sounded and appeared collected and serious. this is the one area of doubt in peoples minds and why he is not conquering london on the same scale as the GE polls show. Those voters who had doubts about his seriousness should now feel safe to vote for boris.
35 - “Did YouGov only poll Kensington and Chelsea?”
If so, Boris is doing very badly in the YouGov poll!
@34:
We’re NOT BEING COMPLACENT.
If you’d seen how much work the party this weekend, you’d see how errant your claim is.
There’s too much at stake to be complacent about this, especially with MORI and Yougov being 13% apart.
@37:
I didn’t allege that Don was committing an offence. I was trying to point out why Mike had decided to make a big thing of it.
I was Fox Mulder. I *wanted* to believe…
Mike - Given that he didn’t give you an e-mail address, how will you be able to know it’s Don when he contacts you in future.
Presumably I could claim to be him and tell you there’s a MORI poll out giving Ken an 8% lead?
35 Only the nice bits.
42 On Saturday, I was leafletting one inner London ward where they’re onto their *11th* Boris Johnson leaflet.
@44:
If he always uses the same fake email address, it’ll be like his secret bat signal or something. Mike’s Commissioner Gordon to Don’s Bruce Wayne.
Can I suggest a pre-result summary of the pollsters predictions article ?
What do we think would be the interpretation of Mayor votes for Brown/Cameron on Friday?
For Brown, BAD = Ken loses by a gap of >3%, OK = loss under 3%, GOOD = A Ken win.
For Cameron BAD = Boris loses, OK = Boris wins by under 5%, Good = Boris wins by over 5%, VERY GOOD = Boris wins by over 10%.
44.- exactly. The only sensible advice is don’t believe anything in the blogosphere unless it is sourced (and check the source as well!) Yes, occasionally that will mean missing out, but more often you will be as well to save your money.
Let me guess, SPIN have taken their markets down on the back of this poll?
I would imagine Boris’ final score to be less than YouGov suggest.
I might, now, revise my prediction to a 53%/47% Boris victory on 2nd preferences.
Ken has less than 82 hours to turn this around… All the (reliable) evidence now points to him *not* doing it.
I do think, however, his % 1st preference vote will exceed both his 2000 and 2004 scores.
51
Yes SPIN still down, as I posted on prev. thread, moved up one tick for a few seconds then pulled the plug and still down.
Well done, Don. Shame you have to be so coy about your identity. I would have thought there are ways around this but it’s up to you. Nobody has to reveal who they are and even an incognito can build up a decent record.
I would caution against excessive excitement on the part of Boris backers. It is after all only one poll and it could be wrong. The link with the ES gives some grounds for concern, although personally I trust YouGov to be professional and balanced. I do expect Boris to win now and have done for a little while, but I still wouldn’t bet the farm on it. My betting position is +£600 Boris -£100 Ken. I’ll probably leave it like that now.
Let’s hope the punters here all like Done as much on May 2nd as they do now!
…all like Don!
49. Any kind of Boris win would be excellent news for Cameron, in a weeks time the % will be forgotten
46. What? You only managed to deliver 11 Boris Johnson leaflets in an inner London ward?! That’s a shocking effort Sean…
Don’t be so scared of the Alsations picketing the letterboxes. They don’t bite… really.
@51:
On what basis are we saying that MORI polls are not reliable evidence?
Because MORI is still showing an uphill battle for BoJo.
30/34.
We get excited about a poll that was the most accurate indicator last time. Fair enough I say.
I bet its crossed most Tories minds on here already….I hope that it doesn’t make people complacent.
I know someone travelling down Yorkshire to vote. Hope he still goes.
As for ‘what has happened in the last few days?.
Quite alot. BJ’s main drawback was the risk factor. Now The Times, The Sun and The Mail have come out for him, how can voting Boris seem silly. Its an acceptable main stream thing to do.
Of course if this poll is wrong, then Yougov will be badly damaged. The reverse is not really true…. The campaign by Ken and his mates to slander and destroy Yougov’s reputation (witness various references in the media to Yougov’s methods being ‘questionable’) means they are really on a hiding to nothing. It is brave of them, in the context of the sustained campaign against them, to publish this poll without fiddling about with weightings and so on. So one would have to conclude that the 11% is more likely to be correct than the polls showing Ken in the lead, simply because it is unlikely they would put their name to such a poll unless they were sure they were right.
The more established pollsters can get things wrong time and time again with nothing to fear because they don’t have the forces of socialism lined up against them.
49 and for Clegg?
Paddick VERY BAD = <10%, BAD = <15%, OK = 15%+ GOOD = 17%+, VERY GOOD = 20%+
@46:
There’s still two more to come, though, Sean…
34. “This poll is for the Evening Standard, who hate Ken. ”
Funny how this should bother you yet polls for Unison don’t. Presumably because they back your man.
49, I’d take the Fast and the Furious approach. Winning’s winning, whether it’s by an inch or a mile.
Because Boris and Ken are both big personalities and the mayoral role is seen as semi-detached from mainstream party politics the effect will be somewhat dampened down, but still significant.
51. You think Ken’s become *more* popular since 2000 and 2004? All the evidence suggests the opposite…
BTW, I’m seriously regretting entering Paul Maggs’ competition yesterday, instead of waiting for this poll to come out. If this poll is remotely accurate, I (and probably many others) will have missed the true result by miles.
According to con home, there is still an ICM poll to come, dunno when that is out….
Well don Don, you took an awful lot of stick last night (apart from yours truly), hopefully a good few of those will now admit they were wrong and apologise.
I wonder if this illness is catching amongst Labour politicians,although Ken seems to walk quite normally to me.
This mayor is going to cling on to office like a limpet with prehensile buttocks
- Boris Johnson on Ken Livingstone
64, you still can:
“entries close 7pm Wednesday.”
52. What is their problem?
I’ve defected to Spreadfair anyway…
64 In the context of a more polarised election, his vote share could well rise, while those for the Lib Dems and minor parties fall.
It is interesting how polls often show results favourable to the people who are paying for them though, isn’t it? UNISON, The Guardian etc commissioning polls that put Ken in front, the Standard commissioning a poll that puts Boris way in front. Hmmmm.
*is aware this has been discussed a million times before*
49. A Boris loss is worse for DC than a Ken loss is for GB. In a sense, GB has less to lose as he is already portrayed as tragi-comic psychopath but DC has the big mo and not being able to win London while Boris hasn’t managed to egregiously offend someone and ZaNuLab are imploding will be a massive failure and indictment of the Conservatives’ electoral credibility. If they can’t win it now, then they probably never will.
64. Yes, I do. By virtue of the fact it’s a close contest which will drive up interest and turnout amongst his key supporters and drive down the votes for minor parties to his benefit.
I don’t expect his % vote to be miles more than 2000/2004, but maybe 36/37/28% of 1st preferences, something like that?
This is a very close two-horse race around two high-profile, first-name known, celebrity candidates. It is highly competitive.
It is the local-election equivalent of a “1992″, without the Neil Kinnock!
71 It is a curious coincidence, but, since polling companies do publish full details of their methodology, and poll in the same way for the organisations that commission their surveys, it really is just a coincidence.
69- I am only allowed to go with betfair- on strict orders of my very sweet better half.
53- well done Peter the Punter for building up a good pay day for Boris with very little exposure if Ken pulls through.
What would happen if through some kind of miracle, combined with London experiencing a collective psychosis Paddick stole it. How much would you lose then?
Out of interest how easy would it be to deliberately skew Yougov findings?
I’m guessing that the majority of people on PB.com are on yougov’s panel as it sometimes gives a heads up to when polls are due to be published. (I know I am). I’m a bit concerned about the cross section of people who are likely to stay as members of yougov. As it takes for ever to get to the £50 mark I suspect that there is an over representation of people who’s interest is not financial, i.e. political anoraks and those interested in market research.
If there was an organised effort to invent phantom panelists who were politically neutral and were in demographics where yougov struggles to find people it would be quite easy to skew their results. Especially if the poll is regional e.g. Scotland or London. I’m not making accustations but the fact that yougov’s panel is self selecting has always made me concerned about it’s reliability. I suppose that Thursday will let us know but I am yet to be convinced by Yougov.
72. That’s over the top. A Boris failure would not be the death of the Tories in London. I’m really not that convinced that the Mayoral election has much to do with party politics.
63. Morris dancer - “Winning’s winning, whether it’s by an inch or a mile.”
Quite! Look what a difference the SNP having 1 more MSP than Labour has made to Scottish politics. The way things have panned out since last May you would have thought the SNP won by a landslide!
SPIN
19-20
15-16
0-0.5
Anyone read the story about Northern Ireland level postal voting amongst Muslim communities for Ken which I understand one of the broadsheets is exposing - surely this will impact on the final result ?
Veering wildly off thread- I hope nobody minds me re-posting my late post at the end of the last thread. I just cannot see Brown fighting a general election. Well here it is;
“I noticed that Jack Straw was put on the 5 live face the public phone in. Brown is only doing “set piece” camapign events for this May.
So Brown puts his underlings again in the firing line. What inspirational leadership qualities.
So get this-Gordon deliberately orchestrated a none contest to become PM. He bottled it in 1992 and 1994 to put himself in the firing line in the labour leadership contests, he bottled out of the election in 2007.
How in a million, billion, gazillion years can labour party members begin to think that they stand an earthly with Gordon at the helm?
I am convinced now that Gordon will not fight an election he knows he will lose, which means he will not be the Labour leader at the next election. Noone needs to wield a knife- Gordon will walk away.
Jack Straw will be the Michael Howard figure- leading the Labour party into an election they will lose, and allowing one of the new generation to start on a surer footing in autumn 2010″.
71,74 - could it be that because some polling firms’ methodologies are believed to favour one side (not deliberately just a side effect) that when deciding to choose which firm to commission to carry out a poll you choose the one whose methdodology is most likely to give the result you want. This then becomes self-fulfilling.
80. Link ?
81. Yes they had Clegg, Cameron and Straw as the three leaders.
Brave Sir Gordon was “busy”
74. Of course, one *could* say, rather illogically, that polls do marginally favour their clients (somehow - maybe by question structure/method??) but that the effect of this is only 1/2/3%. I.e. pretty small.
Therefore, the fact that the “pro-Boris” poll for the Evening Standard has much, much higher leads for Boris than the “pro-Ken” Unison/MORI poll has for Ken - and assuming the true position is somewhere inbetween - the real situation must still be, ergo, in Boris’ favour.
Not that I’m accusing MORI/Yougov of doing this, but there’s no way a polling company could rig, alter, or manipulate the questions/samples and results for a client to give leads for Boris so big. It must be close to reflecting the real picture.
Assumptions galore, but that approach provides *some* reassurance…
The only thing that could trip up Boris now is a “cold feet” late swing to Ken based on jittery middle-class London voters having second thoughts about him on Thursday.
Boris needs to keep playing it seriously till the polls close - preferably, by annoucing more of his “serious” Mayoral team.
I would much prefer Ken to Boris, but I hope it doesn’t come down to dodgy postal votes. The system needs major reform.
60 - I don’t think it is for the Conservatives to decide what constitutes a good or bad result for the Lib Dems.
77. Maybe. I guess what I’m saying is if the Conservatives can’t win it now under the current febrile atmosphere of Labour calumny and failure then what would it take?
76 You’d need thousands of people to successfully infiltrate Yougov’s panel in order to skew the results. It’s theoretically possible, but wildly unlikely in practice.
75. Tyson - my partner in crime has also expressed strong disapproval about my spread-betting.
I fear she’s right, it’s a risky, stressful business that requires fast witted reactions and good judgement 24/7.
It’s just not fun… just nerve-racking!
75 Tyson
Fwiw, I’d be level if Paddick won. It was so cheap to cover my ar*e tht I took out the insurance. Taint gonna happen though.
89 Do they really have thousands of people in London?
87 - Hasn’t stopped you or Mark Senior ‘interpreting’ results for the Conservatives or Labour, has it?
And sorry again for re-posting-
I posted this one for Jack W- which I kinda hoped he’d respond to as he posted a very intresting link about Obama changing his strategy
137- psychologically JackW- I get the feeling that Obama’s team think that Hillary is unbeatable; a kind of Rocky character, “takes a lickin but keeps on tickin” who ultimately prevails
In this link he refers to himself as the underdog. Strange choice of words considering his position.
Clinton takes Indiana (5 points plus), reduces Obama to single digit leaads in NC (8 points less), storms Kentucky. That is one huge counter punch that the Clinton team could give.
85. But bear in mind that many people have now voted, so the chance of a last minute swing affecting the outcome is less.
81. The one thing Gordon would hate more than leading the Labour to a loss in a GE would be sitting on his fat behind in Kirkcaldy while somebody else led them to victory.
An averaged sized poll (1000) which I assume this one is, is incapable of reliably detecting moves of less than about 4%.
To say Boris “up 2″, Ken “down 2″ is not supported by the data. We cannot reject the null hypothesis that there has been no change, and there is still a small chance that the move is actually towards Ken….
Tyson - I’ve heard this line before. ‘Brown won’t fight an election he’s going to lose’. But things are different now. He IS the encumbant, after all. Would he really walk away, with all the admission of failure that would mean?
He WILL try to soldier on, whether the Party will let him stay till 2010 is a different question. They’ve been pretty tough already. He’s deluded enough to think he can win, whatever the polls and if he loses, I’m sure he’ll console himself that it was all in the media narrative, they thought it was time for a change, he never stood a chance blah blah blah.
BTW I thought it was funny to se Mandelson envoking the phrase ‘back to basics’.
92 IIRC, there are something like 200,000 people on Yougov’s panel, and at least 30,000 of those must be from London (probably a bigger number in reality, given that London’s electorate is much more middle class than the country as a whole).
81 I agree that it is almost inconcievable now that Gordon will lead Labour into the next election. If the results on Thursday are as bad as this poll suggests he could easily be on the way out by the end of next month. Under a new leader I think we could quite easily get back into hung parliament territory, although whether Labour can still win outright is doubtful.
@86:
I imagine that CCHQ has a team of lawyers standing by in case that happens. We’d better just hope that if unnamed forces in City Hall or RESPECT really have presided over massive postal-vote fraud, they’d better be prepared to follow through all the hanging-chad shenanigans that will no doubt follow.
91- Peter the punter- ditto- great minds and all. If I had kept my nerve and kept to my strategy of backing and laying Boris I would be nearer to your winnings. As it is I am looking at a 300 Boris win with the same exposure on Ken (about 100 notes).
I took the cheap insurance policy on Paddick mind. There have beeen a couple of balloonie LD posters plotting a ridiculous course for a Paddick win which rather unsettled me.
87 Dan “I don’t think it is for the Conservatives to decide what constitutes a good or bad result for the Lib Dems.”
So what is your view on a good or bad result?
I don’t think it is for the Conservatives to decide what constitutes a good or bad result for the Lib Dems
There is surely no such thing as a bad result for the Lib Dems, is there? Even landslide defeats and mass haemmoraghing of councillors are hailed as ‘progress’…
74. I don’t think it is entirely coincidence - as these organisations can commission a poll and then choose whether or not to publish it…
Morris Dancer - did you get my email?
Thanks
@105:
A way round this might be for Yougov and MORI to announce what the ratio of polls commissioned to polls released is for different contracting parties.
Might give them a way to mitigate their reputational risk from Friday.
95. Sean.
What % of total votes do you expect postal votes to constitute?
A 3-4% late swing from Boris-to-Ken could probably still overcome an early Boris postal vote lead, could it not?
89. Even if all of your phantoms were from groups that are under represented on yougov’s panel? It has been obvious in the past that yougov strugle sometimes with there waiting. Yougov claim a panel of 200,000 but in all likelyhood half of these are no longer active 100,000. If 20% of these come from London that takes your panel down to 20,000. Women have a considerably better chance of being selected than men as only 44% of the panel but 52% of every survey are women. On top of this yougov subsample by age, gender, social class and type of newspaper (upmarket, mid-market, red-top, no newspaper). It is a fair guess that they have struggled to get young working class women who read red-tops and 65+ upper class women who read broadsheets. I would suggest that these people would have a very good chance (25% possibly) of being involved in any survey. If you created 100 of these people I think you could have a serious impact on their polls.
Even without corruption the fact that the panel is self selecting does make me question yougov’s methods.
100 So nickc, how do you see Brown departing “by the end of next month”?
Jack Straw is a very tasty 10/1 in the next leader market. But Gordon will have to be pushed.
110 Sedated?
DON ROCKS!!
Of course, as soon as it became clear he was one of my “associates” in “the firm” it was obvious he was pukka.
Shame on all you doubters.
And Don, the Don of Anon, your secret is safe with me. I’ll see you on the waterfront with the fat man, as usual?
109. It has been obvious in the past that yougov strugle sometimes with there waiting
waiting for what?
the bit of radio 5 I heard this morning, Jack Straw sounded great - the more I hear him the more it is a mystery to me that he has not been given more responsibility.
97. Here we go again….
Rod - if the movement had been the other way, Boris down 2%, Ken up 2%, would you be so quick as to say the move was “statistically insignificant”??
No. Didn’t think so.
You’re clearly a very intelligent and astute man, but you’d have more credibility on these things if you weren’t so bias.
57: Whilst YouGov tend to give the person ahead a bonus, Mori’s last poll looked like it was done rather ineptly.
94 tyson. I did briefly respondez vous mon ami @ 172.
Saying you are the underdog is a tactic to underplay and restrict expectation.
My impression is that the Obama team knew that from the outset that their most likely win scenario came from a long game. Not that they clearly wouldn’t have accepted wrapping this up earlier. However they are frustrated that the end is in sight yet they keep having to fight a rear guard against a persistant and tough opponent.
To use an Obama like basketball analogy, we’re in the last minute leading by 20 but Clinton has just hooped a few neat three pointers. The result isn’t in doubt but the clock has to run down and your opponent may still throw some decent shots.
As for NC …. for me it’s Obama +20. The Shadsy -16 handicap is IMO good value.
98/100/110- Frank, Nick, Peter;
No the Labour party has not the stomach or ability to knife its leader. Gordon will soldier on for another 12-18 months before coming to the grim realisation that he cannot win, and will lose badly.
Then he will walk, and in doing so provide the platform for a damage limitation candidate- step forward Jack Straw winning this time a staged contest against Meacher or his like.
@118:
How close is Obama to having an absolute majority of bound delegates?
I can’t imagine the part grandees moving against Hillary until unless and until he does.
115. There are very good reasons.
119. I’m beginning to think you might be right Tyson.
Has Brown ever won a competitive election in his life?
@119:
Jack Straw will be a damage limitation/caretaker leader, like Michael Howard. His job will be to shore up the core vote and minimize electoral damage, whilst giving the party a good long time to think about its next leader and its future.
It worked so well for us, I can’t imagine Labour not wanting to do it that way.
118- thanks JackW- so NC is pivotal
I find the polls predicting a narrow Ken victory somewhat hard to believe given the public mood.
Ken now has a formidable coalition of interests lined up against him and is facing a very energised Tory vote in outer London. There does not seem to be any enthusiasm for his re-election amongst his natural supporters; even “The Guardian” was less than fully supportive. Set against the backdrop of a deeply unpopular Labour administration, I don’t think Ken’s natural constituency are going to be particularly keen to vote in the sort of numbers that will keep him in office.
Meanwhile the Sun has an an online Poll that has “BoJo” leading by 54% vs 15%.
The Sun is, of course, always correct.
119. I’m not so sure about the “damage limitation” bit. Just imagine how ridiculaous this would make the labour party appear just months before a General Election.
@126:
Everyone knows that polls of self-selecting tabloid readers are the most accurate. FACT.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/
Ken Livingstone supporters are claiming that Boris Johnson would ban the Koran in adverts in the capital’s Bengali-language press
• Bengali-language leaflets are being handed out at mosques saying that Mr Johnson “hates Muslims” and it is a “moral duty” for Muslims to support Mr Livingstone.
• One of Mr Livingstone’s key advisers has promised to give members of one ethnic community “well-paid jobs”, with salaries of up to £80,000, if he is re-elected.
119 - I’m convinced Gordon will fight the next election as Leader (unless genuine ill health intervenes). How about a modest Oxford-Hersham wager, say £20, on that? I can hear Tyson-the-fluffy-one purring expectantly in the background….think of all that caviar flavoured kittee-kat
Does anyone know when the result of the Mayoral contest will be declared?
I seem to remember that 4 years ago it was around Friday lunchtime and not during the night. If anyone does know I would be grateful.
110 If Ken loses by more than 10% and Labour comes third in the locals outside London I think there might well be public calls on Gordon to consider his position. My view is that few Party members (I am a member in inner London) seriously see him as a winner, and, unless MPs are more stupid than I take them for, quite a few of them must share this view. Nobody ever voted for Gordon, nobody owes him any loyalty, and his term as PM has been an unmitigated disaster. I cannot think of one issue that he has handled well. Labour’s decline in the polls is primarily due to his own ineptitude (by comparison Black wednesday, or the Winter of Discontent, were caused by a whole series of factors and not primarily due to failings on the part of the PM of the day). So Labour can hope to regain quite a lot of ground if Brown is taken out of the equation. Putting together all of these factors seem to me to point firmly toward Brown being forced out sooner rather than later (and I think he would have to be forced - I don’t see him falling on his sword).
Great poll!
Whilst I want this poll to reflect the outcome on Thursday, I’m still a bit cautious simply because the figures are of a significantly different makeup from 2004.
In particular, Boris and Ken voters make up 81% of the sample in the poll (and other polls. Whereas in 2004, the Ken / Steve vote made up only 66% of the vote. The Ken vote seems to be holding up. 35% is only 2 points below his 2004 result. That suggests that all the smaller parties (including the Libdems) are being squeezed (by around 15%) and it is pretty much all going to Boris.
True, I think the UKIP vote will be significantly squeezed which would possibly profer up Boris maybe 5%. But to meet the poll figures would then require another 10% to have moved across to Boris. Libdems down 3 at 12 or there abouts most going to Boris, perhaps? However, that still means the other 7% is coming from Respect (dubious), Greens seem to be holding their vote so doubtful, CPA (??), BNP (dubious).
The only other thing it could be that there is going to be a significantly change in turnout? Perhaps perhaps turnout is to increase and the ultra-shy conservatives (some of the lost 3 million) will come out of hibernation?
Consequently, I’m still in the ‘too close to call’ camp.
I just don’t buy that the smaller parties are going to be squeezed quite as much as the current polls suggest. However, if the polling is right then it may be an early sign that we are heading back to two party politics.
127- I agree PeterC. That is why the party will not knife Gordon.
The conundrum is this- knife Gordon and bring the party into a level of acrimony not known since the early 80’s, except this time it is in power. And it is unliekly to be successful. Keep with Gordon and lose badly in 2010. Change leader just before 2010 and lose badly by looking plainly silly and calculating.
I don’t think the party has a choice though. Gordon will wait a year or so, and make his own decisions.
Did the Standard’s story about Ken being backed by the Unions make a big difference?
Anecdotally, this seems to have pissed off more people than the Lee Jasper stuff (which was pretty hard for Joe Voter to grasp).
You can’t be mayor and negotiate on behalf of taxpayers if you are funded by the RMT. I’ll bet this played some part in the swing (assuming YouGov isn’t totally astray).
129. When did Livingstone join Zanu-PF?
@127:
If you know there’s no way you can win, damage limitation becomes an absolute necessity.
We had to do it after the trauma of IDS, Labour will have to do similar after their very own Scotch IDS has finished chewing Labour into little demoralised chunks.
Hello 131. I’m wondering the very same thing. The archive of a board I’m a member of seems to suggest the first results coming out at 7.50pm the day after.
130- comrade john O- you have to give me odds on that one though. I could go on betfair right now and get much better than evens for Gordon walking before the election.
Am away for a few hours but will look for your response
116. I’m not biased in any way, except that I generally dislike ALL politicians.
I’m just giving you the stats, which are blind to your irrelevant personal preferences…
106, I’ll go check it now:)
134. Knifing Gordon - in the sense of a foraml challange - would be almost inconceivable. The blood-letting would be horrendous.
What is more likely is that the Cabinet would advise him that he had lost the support of the parliamentary party. That was the process that ultimately brought about the departure of Mrs Thatcher.
Would Gordon take the hint? Or would he try to tough it out? And what would happen if he did? Interesting questions.
Well done Don. Red Ken is gone!
Reply to Nick Palmer (previous thread).
Please, please, please keep regurgitating that Marxist far-left spiel. Leave it to the Patriots to concentrate on the real issues effecting this country. If you shout ‘RACIST’ and ‘THUG’ loud enough at the BNP I’m sure the immigration mess will sort itself out!
As for those who you listed - most of them are no longer in the party.
Labour is of course full of Angels and Saints who would never do anything wrong. Here’s a story that appeared in yesterday’s paper.
***********
A FORMER Mayor of Hebden Royd has been arrested on suspicion of child porn offences.
Stewart Brown, 59, was a Labour candidate for the Elland ward in next month’s council elections.
But he has now been suspended from the Labour Party.
Officers from the West Yorkshire Police Child Protection Unit arrested Mr Brown on Tuesday. He was questioned by detectives before he was bailed, pending further investigation.
A West Yorkshire Police spokeswoman said: “A 59-year-old man was arrested for possession and distribution of indecent images of children.
“Police have been working closely with the Child Exploitation and Online Protection Centre.”
***************
If you have a few spare hours then read this site. People in glass houses………
http://liarsbuggersandthieves.blogspot.com/search/label/Labour
120 Martin. After the primaries have finished in June my estimate is that Obama will need around 80 - 100 of the remaining 300 or so super delegates.
140) Rod - bit confused about this. I understand that a poll within the MOE of another could be the same result but surely a poll that shows some improvement for a candidate is MORE LIKELY to mean the candidate has actually improved rather than if the result showed a decline in their support?
134 But I don’t think getting rid of Gordon would necessarily be the kind of divisive process that accompanied the defenestration of Thatcher. This is because Gordon has no significant personal following outside of Westminster and there are no fundamental policy divides in Labour comparable to the Europe issue that was the foundation of Tory disunity. I can forsee the Party uniting quite easily behind a new leader. Gordon would be forgotten within a month of his departure.
I think this idea of losing badly is pushing it a bit. Most of the polls show the Tories strugling to gain a large majority. Labour will probably lose but the current obsession with landslides is a bit strange. Cameron will not have a majority of over 50. In the long term Labour would be best off serving out the next 18 months and then losing as opposed to doing what the Tories did in the 90’s and causing internal friction that messed them up for decades.
Also it is important to remember that no recent Labour leader has been deposed. Wilson survived depreciation, Kinnock survived 1988 and a couple of lacklustre years afterwards. Labour is fundamentally loyal to it’s leaders. I will bet with anyone that they won’t change.
There aren’t any odds on Brown going in 2008 and 2009 on William Hill at the moment. I think both would be good bets. If I remember correctly 2008 was around 16/1 lately.
142, they have a problem though. Brown was unopposed, virtually the entire PLP supported him. Right now his ministers are backing him.
It would say a lot about their judgement and courage, or lack thereof, if they tried to depose him.
Besides, if they believe the election is unwinnable they may not be able to find a Howard-type figure.
On the other hand, a lot of Labour’s problems are rooted in Brown personally. Removing him could pay dividends, if it were bloodless. If it were bloody, it would be the worst of all worlds for Labour.
144 Further …. clearly the figures diminish as super delegates declare day by day.
103 - I think the Lib Dem mayoral campaign will be judged by the party on how many Assembly seats it delivers - particularly if a fptp seat can be won.
Otherwise Paddick will poll a bit better than Kramer and slightly worse than Hughes (and it will probably have more to do with name recognition than any political groundswell in any direction).
Mayoral elections are different due to the emphasis on personality and any conclusions need to be tempered through that filter.
@147:
Am I right in thinking that the only Labour Party organ that can remove a sitting PM is Conference?
Even if the parliamentary party were so minded, a defenestration of Broon is a practical impossibility.
132. I’m not sure to what extent a defeat for Ken would be blamed on Gordon; most, if not all, of the reasons he’s losing are issues with Ken himself and the way he’s run London. Likewise, Boris’ probable success may have more to do with his own popularity than the Cameron effect; it would be a mistake to read too much about national voting inclinations into one local election, especially one where the two major candidates are so well-known and relatively independent of their parties.
On the other hand, the same cannot be said for the local elections elsewhere; hence why the result in the locals is probably more important than what happens in London, IMO. Having said that ,if the overall pattern is of big Labour losses and Con gains, there would be serious pressure on Gordon, and in that context a Boris win would certainly add to the overall impact.
Just noticed this by Jackie Ashley:
‘[P]eople who live in Havering and Surbiton don’t necessarily think of themselves as Londoners, and don’t vote in London elections. Privately, some Tories will concede that they are worried about getting their vote out in these areas.’
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/apr/28/gordonbrown.economy
Is that true or just wishful thinking?
146 I agree and Miliband made a big play for the job at the weekend. His interview with marr was nothing short of a campaign opening shot. Gordon is such a political non-entity nobody would remember him after 2 weeks. Labour need to move and move fast.
I hope they dont because Gordon is the best Tory asset since kinnock/foot
145. Indeed. In fact, Rod doesn’t seem to have considered the possibility that the MOE could (and should) apply equally in the other direction - i.e., Boris’ margin could actually be even bigger than this poll indicates!
142 Yes that is what I would expect to happen - calls for him to go would become irresistable and senior figures would tell him that the game was up. He couldn’t try to cling on as he has no basis of legitimate support - Thatcher could say that she was elected, and had the support of the majority of her party in the country - Gordon has neither of these things.
129 I was shown the leaflet about Johnson wanting to ban the Koran on Saturday.
@154:
Very much the latter.
They pay the tax. Even if they don’t think of themselves as Londoners, they know what another four years of Livingstone will cost them.
It is yet more evidence of how desperate the Grauniad has become during this campaign.
154 - utter wishful thinking by the Guardian. However there aren’t that many Tory votes in Surbiton these days…
149. There is no way for Labour to avoid looking ridiculous. They chose Brown by acclaim. Now that its apparent he’s a dud they don’t know what to do. Their best bet is probably to shut up and try to act loyal. But maybe that’s too much to ask of any group of politicians in such circumstances.
151. So given that Paddick has zero personality, any vote greater than zero will be a ‘good result’?
HF your post has been picked up by Iain Dale
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2008/04/boris-v-ken-or-yougov-v-mori.html
163 - HF = Hammers Fan?
129
‘Ban the Koran’
Great idea and long overdue
Promised’Well paid jobs’ for members of ethnic minorities
That’s already happened courtesy of Lee Jasper and his cronies
162
120/144/150 Martin. Apologies I misread your question.
There are 3,253 pledged delegates. Obama on 1490 depending on which site you choose to believe. Accordingly around 130 shy of a majority presently.
160. I agree. It’s typical disingenuous tosh from the professional left commentariat who are clutching at straws and are desperate for something relevant to say. Turnout in outer London is generally higher than in inner London. And Surbiton isn’t a borough either!
154 - It was, I think, broadly true of elections in the early GLC years in the 1960s and the early 1970s (indeed, IIRC, it was seen as a major problem at the time - didn’t stop handsome Tory victories in 1967 and 1970, though). It’s not true now, except for a few relatively elderly voters. Outer London turnout is liikely to be much stronger.
97, and there is still a small chance that the move is actually towards Ken….
… and, of course, an exactly equal small chance that there is a move to Boris of more than double the reported swing.
168. It’s a great boost to think this bunch of miserable nonentities will be exiled to the fringes of public life again soon, hopefully for a very long time indeed.
Does Sky have a debate tonight? I’ve just heard Dermot Murnaghan plugging one. Does anybody know what time it is on?
I have not yet had time to read all the posts , but may I add my congratulations to Don.
If anyone was in any doubt about how the nation is feeling, I listened to talk sport from 11.30-12.10 (trying to hear the mayoral poll result (97.3 was talking about Delia Smith!!), and IMHO Jack Straw, though he did his best to defend the Govt, got a right kicking, a fair bit was about immigrants but a lot on 10p tax , rising fuel costs, pensioners being hit, and people saying they would never vote Labour again.
I therefore think the mayoral polls are nearer the mark from Yougov than anyone else. OK, its anecdotal evidence, but it just reinforces my view of what a mess Labour are in. I still dont think they get how much anger there is out there over the 10p issue.
154 - Also from that Jackie Ashley column:
“Meanwhile the ethnic minority vote is traditionally underestimated in the polls”