Site announcement
May 1st, 2008There has been an attempt to impersonate me and others on the previous thread.
The person responsible has now been identified and has been banned.
I am not aware of any exit polls tonight.
Automated content moderation is now on - if you have not had a comment approved here before or if your details have changed then it will get held up in the spam trap.
This was all the work of one person who was trying to influence the betting markets.
Mike Smithson
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Testing… am I trusted, by Mike at least
Good stuff Mike. Perhaps the regulars could all make a donation to fund a new system after today? I would be happy to donate.
Excellent, was it just the one poster?
Looks like the answer is yes
Just following up from a question on the previous thread, Mike did you not say a couple of days ago that you thought ITN were exit polling?
Trusted?
Good work Mike, hope I am still allowed to post, changed my name from Rob to Rob D to avoid confusion today!
Hmm betfair seems to every now and again change rapidly and go back to normal.
Could this be the people attempting to push the markets towards Ken vs the actual result which is a Boris win?
Or maybe it’s just going to be a pretty close night
Hurrah. I can get on. No copies here. Having never said anything of import becomes an advantage on pb.com!
Strange times we live in.
Glad you solved the problem Mike - well done.
Bit of a move against Ken on Betfair - now 3.7
Testing … Trusted??
I’m not a gambling man, but I do love this site, though my posts are rare. Really well-informed and entertaining, and it really annoys me to see it made to look silly (as well as the financial implications for some). Well done for clamping down Mike.
Floreat pb.com! Borders repelled.
Market now stabilising, Ken’s odds lengthening.
So then can anyone give me a summery of whats happeneds over the last 4-5 hours? Is it still on for BoJo?
It wasn’t just Mike who was cloned it was me, political capital and I think Rod C as well..was it all the same person?
2 - Don’t know if I count as a regular or not, but I’ve donated to another site before and I’d be happy to donate (a tenner) to this one if it helps.
Was the identified fraudster a regular here we’d know by a particular name or new?
Just want to say, I hope Rob E is not discouraged from posting (re: his last post on the previous thread)!
13. It’s been pretty stable. Ken’s odds tightened slightly for a short while but they’re back at 3.7 now which is probably the longest it’s been since I’ve been looking today.
Hooray!!!
Only postal votes as far as I know have been counted so far, and as far as I know divulging their result before 10pm is a serious criminal offence. NO non-postal votes will be counted before 10pm, in practice some time later.
ergo: it’s obvious there was some ramping goign on!! as they say, they were just spoiling it for everyone!!
btw-hat off to whoever noticed Zenit, now on a 4-0 shpanking of Bayern!!! wonder what the odds were on that??
Am glad that that got resolved. Some of us don’t bet (due to not having the spare cash) but use this as the best site for political analysis around and don’t want that undermined.
Everyone’s getting very nervous - but Ladbrokes haven’t moved from 1/3 Boris all day. ‘The Magic Sign’ are rarely wrong and everything still points to a Boris win by around 5% after 2nd prefs
Close the watertight doors!
Aye aye sir!
Well done, Mike. I suppose everyone’s going to post now, just to prove they are not the guilty party?
As I replied to a post from Mike’s imposter, an exit poll at this stage in the day, without equivalent data from 2004 wouldn’t be much good anyway.
6. Looks like you can still post, and hopefully normality - or what passes for normality here - can return.
Does anyone know how interesting tonight’s TV election coverage will be? I’ve read that some of the other locals are not being counted til tomorrow,and if there’s no London exit polls will it just be hours of politicians squabbling without enough results being announced to analyse trends?
18. They sure do! We should have ranks on here with people who regularly make good predictions to be noticed a bit more. It’s hard to spot the people who are regularly correct and those who couldn’t win a game of 21.
23 - Thats the normal format yes.
Mark Senior will be very dissappointed noone tried to impersonate him.
After reading ‘Mike Smithson’ comment about the last YouGov poll, I covered my position on Boris — reducing my potential profit by more than half.
Knowing that it was a scam, I’m not very happy!
I have to admit, tough, that the fraudster is pretty clever. He caught me; I backed Islamic Red Ken at 3.55…
16. Thanks for that message, and I’m not discouraged; we mustn’t let the doofuses get us down.
Any predictions of Gordon’s reshuffle tomorrow? Will he reshuffle the deckchairs or bring out the long knives? I reckon the former - he hasn’t got sufficient authority to risk a resignation speech from anyone.
28 - I would use a stronger word than that!
I sincerely hope that there are exit polls for the mayoral race, it’ll be hell otherwise
Exit poll data here:
http://richarddawkins.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=17&t=43309
Not exactly conclusive.
26 Been here had that done to me before
I wonder if this post will be approved.
25 Some results in about half past midnight. Am annoyed that London doesn’t get counted till tomorrow - if Italy, France etc. can get results in from soon after polls close then its time the UK caught up.
Keeping us on tenterhooks till tomorrow evening (a Bank Holiday Weekend Friday rush hour at that) is just to cruel.
29 - I dont expect a reshuffle tomorrow, why would he risk it? Better to wait until July, it is more usual to have a reshuffle just before recess.
27. Only a small comfort but I bet the spammer will lose more.
28. Take heart. Adding an initial to avoid confusion did not come across as counter-terror-betting tactics.
17. Thanks.
29. Ed “so what/weak” Balls for Chancellor!
Casino, hopefully the recent development has proved that I am a honest punter who thinks Ken’s price is wrong, not a ramper.
29-Jacqui Smith off somewhere else? Ed Balls into Home? Wonder if anyone will go to spend more time with family.
Like Norman Fowler. Several times.
notice to those impersonated
I’ve been through the previous thread and have marked those comments which I think were false. Could you check to see that my marking in relation to you is correct?
The person who did this seemed to know the precise moment when I was going to have my supper - otherwise I would have stopped it earlier.
Many thanks.
35 29
I would imagine GB would keep a reshuffle as a distraction if Labour lose Crewe..:-)
22 it wasnt me….
Apologies if it has been postyed before, but the Electoral Reform Society’s media guide includes approximate planned declaration times:
http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/downloads/elections2008mediaguide.pdf
Long live PB.com
32. never! Was the guy who supported Ken against YouGov not really you? [….chance to get your defence in early…wink,wink]
not a fake article either….
LibDem candidate for Crewe & Nantwich resigns
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/may/01/liberaldemocrats.byelections
Make of it what you will, but in Boris’s valedictory email to supporters, it is stated that reports of voting in Labour supporting area were high, which indicated a close result. Obviously he has an interest in getting his vote out, so this may just be spin.
42 Gordon couldnt shuffle a pack of cards. Anyone who was any good has been alienated, they would not serve under him, so we are left bar one or two with the dregs. Its all of Gordon’s own making. He has IMHO made a lot of enemies in his own party. Its really a question of whether his gathering enemies will seek the destruction of the Labour Party(for a generation) to get rid of Gordon. .. Catch 22
The effrontery of the ramper is amazing. I doubt Brown will reshuffle on a Friday, before the GLA results emerge. In fact, it’s too early for one, before the Finance Bill and the 42 days vote are over - any new Home Sec. will then be faced with precisely the same problem Jacqui Smith was. A June or July reshuffle will allow some dust to settle, and would then, presumably, make sense as the last reshuffle before May/June 2009, whether a GE takes place then or not.
48 s/be re 41
40 “The person who did this seemed to know the precise moment when I was going to have my supper….”
Wasn’t Mrs Smithson, was it Mike?
47. Yeah, at this stage of the day, its all about getting the vote out. A lot of people leave voting until the evening, but then when they get stuck in front of the tele, they can’t be bothered.
O/T Hope you all got on my wee tip this avo. 4-0 final score.
46 That could damage the Rennard Charge in C&N - weaken the new candidate from the start in what is a very short campaign.
**** ARSE EXIT POLL **** ARSE EXIT POLL **** ARSE EXIT POLL ****
My ARSE exit poll for the Mayoralty will be released at 9.30 this evening !!
55 - The only poll that matters!
53-Congrats!!!
[Mike is not allowed to play out until he has had his tea! :-)]
55-Even before polls close?
Passed my local polling station in Lambeth (one of Ken’s best results last time) No tellers or voters at about 6 pm. Going to vote after 9 so I can estimate the turn out from the official’s lists.
Anyone got any comparable turnouts for equivalent time at last G.E.?
55. we don’t want anything exiting from your arse!
It’s quite extraordinary the way in which Yougov have managed to put a ’spell’ on this site.
Other pollsters have said it’s neck and neck.
If the Yougov swing to Ken, in the last week, is correct, It makes you wonder what figures the other pollsters would have published if they had had late polls?
Mike, amidst all the turmoil of the previous thread, I and judging by a number of posts, a few others were also confused, please would you indicate the conclusion we should reach as regards the level postal votes issued by the various London Boroughs - is this good or bad news for Boris (sorry to be a bit thick!).
29 re reshuffle: there was some speculation the other day that Brown intended to stick Alan Johnson in a more media prominent position though whether the cheeky chappie wants to be in the firing line for a failing government is doubtful IMO.
Also some talk about making more use of Hoon’s undoubted talents (lol) and sticking Straw somewhere where he can’t hide.
All sounds a bit desperate to me, particularly as those three appear keen to keep a low profile at present.
55 - sitting on it until then?
Jack, Clinton in the LEAD in North Carolina…. maybe flawed poll?
http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/Top_News/2008/05/01/carolina_poll_gives_clinton_slight_lead/3936/
61 Keep clutching at those straws until 7pm tomorrow evening, Gabble.
49. I hope you’re not accusing me of ramping about the reshuffle Tangent!
Is that Jack’s ARSE or a false one
18 - no postal votes have been counted - only checked against the personal statement, ie that the person completing the form has used the same signature as the application form and given their correct date of birth.
30 - exit polls, I have checked with one north London council and they have not been asked for permission to conduct an exit poll. So I think that it is most unlikely that there is an exit poll.
The problem of impersonation is being challenged in Court in Greece - the L*sbians are taking the l*sbians to court to stop them calling themselves L*sbians because it confuses people as to the sexual preferences of L*sbian women.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7376919.stm
re 62. Having seen the post on Barnet postal vote turnout I think it is quite good for Boris.
Latest Gallup Presidential and Primary Trackers :
McCain 46% .. Clinton 46%
McCain 47% .. Obama 43%
Clinton 49% .. Obama 45%
Note - Wright bounce for Clinton.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/106945/Gallup-Daily-Clinton-49-Obama-45.aspx
Moving again:
Boris 1.34
Ken 3.9
66 - Absolutely not, Jack!
But a little bird has whispered to me that Ken is romping home by 60-40 and Cameron will resign in front of a tearful CCHQ crowd, having enticed Brois to commit hara-kiri first, so watch this spece…
Ken continuing to weaken, now at 2.9/1 on Betfair.
I love Zenit St. Petersburg!
re 61. My guess is that they would all have been about the same and we would have had the converging that we saw at the 2005 general election. Remember that in its Observer poll Mori had a 6% Boris lead on first preferences which is only one point off the final YouGov poll.
75. Me too
64 Marcia. It’s an IA poll whose record in the south has been very poor. See below.
However there is a trend to Clinton in the other polls but I still expect a comfortable Obama win.
http://electioninspection.wordpress.com/2008/04/30/insider-advantage-sucks/
Surprising that NO exit polls are expected - I thought Sky would commission on for London.
Since those who do this kind of thing do so to manipulate the markets I call that ’stealing’. Personally I think such people should face prosecution … harsh but if provable there should be a means to it happening.
60. Murdoch been hit by the credit crunch?
I’m resorting to using Google Earth to find my polling station.
Does anyone know where St Pauls Catholic Church on Cyncoed Road in Cardiff is in relation to UWIC Cyncoed Campus?
I need to help the tories into 2nd place!
Boris now 1.28 with someone sticking £1.5k down
re 81. I think the last thread and the IP address mean that the culprit could be identified.
69
This is so funny!
Does that mean that if you live in a place called Gay you can sue outsiders calling themselves ‘gays’?
It bet it does…
Ken reaches the 4 mark!
76. Mike Smithson: “Remember that in its Observer poll Mori had a 6% Boris lead on first preferences which is only one point off the final YouGov poll.”
Yes, but the most recent Mori poll had Ken 4 points AHEAD after second preferences.
Technical Note on the ARSE poll :
Information is still being filtered in my ARSE. Andrea is examining it extremely closely and he is putting in a maximum effort to extract a close match to the true state of Boris’s and Ken’s piles.
Remember my ARSE is never knowingly undersold !!!!!!!!!
Indiana - Clinton has a 10% lead
http://www.theindychannel.com/politics/16106143/detail.html
re 88. The markets are there, the Ken prices are good, the option is yours.
I’m feeling left out, no election in Guildford today.
My take on Indiana and NC is that Indiana will show Obama closing on Clinton while NC will show Clinton closing on Obama. Both as a result of the Wright denunciation, it going down better in one state and with certain voters, than others. Given that the denunciation was earlier this week I would expect this to start kicking in as a factor come the end of the weekend, not soon enough to change any damage as regards the states on Tuesday though.
Betfair suggests game over… Ken’s slipping away….
Boris price won’t move much below 1.33 as long as Ladbrokes is at that price.
81-85
Is it not more like bluffing in a p0ker game than actually stealing?
94. Even Ladbrokes may be under pressure and could go shorter…
90 - The Rasmussen poll was carried out with a focus much later than that and picked up, I believe, the slight Obama bounce that I mentioned.
85 - Aw, go on Mike, name and shame!
92
Why, in your opinion, would Hill’s numbers go down in Indiana?
93
We have seen those numbers earlier today.
98 - More favourable reaction to Wright being thrown under the bus, the black vote slipping away in NC for the same reason.
94: quite possible - 600 limit there too though. Still, it’s a brake on the betfair market until it moves.
Ken at 4.3 now! Some rapid changing
It coheres. Let’s see what will be happening. Thanks.
Mike,
I’ve always been against registration but after tonight, epecially at such a key (betting) moment, perhaps it’s time ?
Great site as ever, let’s keep it that way.
Still calling Boris by 10%+ FWIW
Kind regards
TB
I think I am going to win both my bets. Turnout 43%+ and Boris.
How’s this for sticking my neck on the block - I sense it might be one way for Ken’s odds from here on - out.
Now see, who is it on here who keeps reminding us on PB that someone always knows and someone always tells? …. With the polls closing in just over 2 hours, that becomes an ever more likely prospect.
104. Tell me that it is not true!! Is TB Tony Blair?
54. Candidate is from Newcastle, virtually a neighbouring constituency. Much more local than previous chap who hails from Buxton. Presumably she is seen as a better by election candidate.
Conservative candidate has a continuity element which may be helpful. Time will tell.
Its a crying shame what some people will do for some cash. Lets manipulate the punters on the pb.com site.
Little respect for any here to do that. I know the banter on here can get a little person at times, but no one has stooped that low before.
Come on Boris!!
83. I don’t, sorry. I’m in Roath and went to the wrong church this morning! Seem to be a few Cardiffians on here.
New Pew Research Center Primary and Presidential Poll :
McCain 45% .. Clinton 49%
McCain 44% .. Obama 50%
Clinton 45% .. Obama 47%
http://people-press.org/reports/cache.php?ReportID=414
Gabble @ 62 -
I’d love to know *why* you don’t think we should trust YouGov, given their track record.
Can’t you, or any of your friends in the bunker, provide us with *any* plausible-sounding explanations for why their methodology might have picked up additional bias(es) that they’ve never suffered before?
Ken’s price is getting to a level where it’s beginning to look attractive. I’m not particularly keen on either Ken or Boris - so I’m ready to be convinced that my betting position is wrong.
You claim to be posting out of concern for our financial health. If so, try explaining *why* we’re wrong, rather than just pointing out the “fact” that we are. Or are you just peddling substandard spin?
104. Tell me that its not true!! Is TB Tony Blair?
106. Who is going to know?
109. Thanks anyway, luckily I think I may have spotted it on google earth and I think it’s just across the road.
The old Trout Teller I just spoke to says turnout ‘very good in this patch’.
I see BJ backed down to 1.3. The volumes going thru are still M.mouse.
90 Marcia. Thanks. C-48/O-38%.
95. PM. No it isn’t like bluffing in a game of p0ker. When you play p0ker bluffing is an integral part of the game. When you visit and contribute to this site there is a presumption that people will offer their truly held opinions. Whether you agree or disagree is another matter and circumspection is advisable. But to deliberately try to mislead other people on a forum where the ethos and presumption is that people give factually correct information is reprehensible.
Obama camp seem quite confident over future super delegate numbers.
Presumably they have taken their soundings. Remains to be seen whether it all stands up, up to now they seem to have been accurate in their expectations.
As is constantly said, its delegates that count not votes!!!
83. “I need to help the tories into 2nd place!”
Up or down?
“..Faced with the possibility of a heavy defeat, the Prime Minister is already planning an aggressive “relaunch” campaign, with new policies, a contrite and listening tone and a fresh attempt to expose divisions with the Conservatives, party sources said. His closest advisers have been drawing up plans to limit the damage….”
Pathetic!!
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3856679.ece
Is anyone thinking “Ooh a by-election in Henley?”
This must be even more premature thinking than when Dunwoody was still warm.
I think that some people have a fairly good idea of how turnout London-wide is looking, and have come to a pro-Boris conclusion.
Mike,
I for one (who is mainly a semi regular) would be gutted if this eclectic site was forced to change because of the actions of one individual.
For what its worth - the polling station I can see from my office has had a slow but steady stream of customers all day.
117
Is it not part of the game? — as reprehensible as it feels.
This being asked, I feel like I agree with you; but I have a hard time thinking about how it can effectively be considered a crime (like stealing).
85 - I do think that the police should be contacted if so, Mr Smithson. People have lost money as a result of this fraud.
40- I didn’t think people had supper anymore.
Don’t forget:
There are the following London byes tonight:
Barnet, Hale (Conservative defending)
Camden, Highgate (Conservative defending)
Ealing, Greenford Broadway (Labour defending)
Hammersmith & Fulham, Sands End (Conservative defending)
Kensington & Chelsea, Brompton (Conservative defending)
Tower Hamlets, Millwall (Conservative defending)
Tower Hamlets, Weaver (LD defending)
The turnout figures and the direction of both the Labour and Tory vote will give us at least some indications to the final result.
Just had a look at the previous thread and this person is a crafty g*t.
Benny - it’s not to late to change your mind and vote Lib Dem. Keep out Russell Goodway’s Labour.
Dow over 13,000.
Markets confirm a turn up.
129. Wouldnt a tory vote help them come ahead of labour in cardiff overall?
113 “Someone” doesn’t need to have the overall picture, just a very reliable indicator. I fancy there are quite a few “someones” around.
A £300 bet backing Ken on Betfair would make his price 2.34… the lack of money on there means it cant be a massive indicator at the moment… i hope having backed Ken
I’ve just cleared out all my losses if Ken were to win, and am back to a nice green shade on the both. My strategy all along.
Come on Ken. Come on Londoners- get your backsides out and do not vote for a foppish clown
President Bush marginally more popular than the black death …. but only just !!!
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/01/bush.poll/index.html
http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/themole,,the-moles-handy-guide-to-brown-thursday,27885
“Latest predictions suggest that the London result may not be announced until between 7pm and 9pm on Friday night.”
I didn’t know it would take that long!
133
Good timing! Much better than mine: I covered my position at 3.55; you did at 4; well done, sir!
133 Too late Tyson, the die is cast!
Message to new posters Your comments are being held for prior approval by me. Once you have had a comment approved it will go on the site immediately and further contributions will not be held up.
A possible explanation of today’s pirate.
I use ‘he’. Could also be a she.
A punter believes the MORI/UNION polls. He supports Ken. He’s blinded by bias. He swallows the Ken propaganda about Yougov - and so disregards their clear Boris leads. In his mind he expects the ‘truth to come out in the end’. He piles on loads of money on Ken - the world is wrong, he is right.
Yet what he expected never happens. Boris still leads in a new Yougov poll on the day of the election, and postal votes are stacking up high in Boris voting areas. Although we all pretend it’s close, there really is now evidence the margin will be close so far. We have no exit polls. It’s illegal to leak the actual postal vote results.
Suddenly he realises he’s lost a lot of money on Ken. So what does he do. In a panic he comes on here. He impersonates others, spreads false claims about ITN, spreads false claims about exit polls, in order to get panic buying on Ken - so he can at least recover some of his huge losses on Ken.
It’s the classic psychology of a loser. When they can’t win fair, they decide to use criminality instead. Shame on the Ken supporters.
If I had money on Ken-Boris, I’d be cashing my chips in? Isn’t this mad price changing doing people’s heads in?
Can’t wait for Mike to produce a graph that shows the minute by minute price changes over the day.
108. Yes, if the guy throws his toys out of the pram after a bit of pressure from Lib Dem HQ., how on earth would he cope under the shellfire of a by-election?
I understand the Tory PPC is a barrister. Will Labour do ‘a Hartlepool’ on him, I wonder?
139 - What the hell happened on the last thread? Whoever you are you are a sad person.
I was really panicking on behalf of Boris for a while.
32 Mark Senior
Can you please remind me of your forecast for Lib Dem seat and council gains tonight;I would imagine its very bullish in view of their success with local by-elections each week.
125. Its effectively Fraud or obtaining funds by deception…the guy/gal was pretending to be various people most importantly Mike and releasing market apparently market sensitive information…it sounds like a crime to me…
139-I don’t come here very often these days, but I’m not a new poster. Does my comment has to be held for approval?
Was a by election in Hinckley & Bos last week, Lib Dems held but BNP came a good second in typical Tory area
141…it is simply the greed and fear of the market place. you need to wear long trousers!
New Research2000/DailyKos Presidential poll for North Carolina :
McCain 51% .. Clinton 39%
McCain 50% .. Obama 41%
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/1/122149/4184/419/507058
Ladbrokes down to 1.28 now, betfair will likely follow to around 1.25 soon, in the absence of new info.
re 145. If anybody want to report this to the police I have the supporting evidence available.
138- Peter from putney- the betting is being dictated by youguv polls- not for me the firmest territory.
People are genuinely scared Sh*tless that Boris will win. I am still crossing fingers, toes, and anything else that a 1992 Kinnock factor sets in.
Anyway after tonight I will be able to put my cash into the US election where I am much surer of the outcome.
As an ex-exit pollster, as it were, both national and by-election (1986-97) I would be rather surprised if there were in fact any serious exit polls today.
They’re very, very expensive (we’re talking six figures)and with so many votes cast by post harder than they were in my day.
If anyone says they have exit poll leaks, ask them who’s conducting the poll for who!
140: Or a Boris supporter pretending to be a Ken one.
150 As I thought, ‘The Magic Sign’ are under pressure. Boris backers should start calculating their profits now…
Will be voting in an hour’s time in Lambeth - my constituency (west Norwood had a turnout of 58.1% at the G.E. My estimate at 9 ish was 55%.
Hopefully might run in to my MP: Tessa Jowell.
Heard good things about the gfx on the BBC tonight. Should be fun
142.The Tories haven’t sacked their candidate for C&N, unlike the LDs.
He looks pretty good…
Edward was born in Knutsford, Cheshire in 1973. In his early life, Edward shared his home with around 100 foster children, two of whom were subsequently adopted. He studied politics at Durham University before converting to law.
Since 1999 Edward has practised in Chester as a family law barrister, specialising in cases concerned with the welfare of vulnerable children.
He lives in Cheshire with his wife Julia and three children Sam, Elizabeth and Lydia, all of whom were born at Leighton Hospital.
When not working, campaigning or looking after his children, Edward is a keen marathon runner (he has completed 6 marathons including the New York in 2007 and London in 2008, together raising over £4,500) and enjoys playing as much sport as possible, including golf, cricket and scuba diving. Edward also loves travel and writing: He has written a travelogue from 1993 as well as an illustrated children’s book.
157 - Excitement!!
140 - You can’t castigate Ken supporters for something you don’t know they’ve done. The ramper could be coming from any political position, and might have had a range of market motivations.
15 8continued… he also wants world peace and looks great in a swmsuit.
144 Forecast is Con + 120 Lab - 115 LibDem + 10 Others - 15 England only .
At what point do they start counting postals? Wouldn’t it be better to wait until after 10pm?
Not sure if those 133 replies were meant to to me or ‘Tyson’.. Im not trying to get out of any bets, just commenting on the lack of volume on the fair (in comparison to Fiorentina vs Rangers for instance)… anyhow i hadnt really looked at the Mayoral betting until watching last weeks debate on Question Time, and being extremely surprised Boris was fav, I’ve had a very bad bet on Ken at 13/8… but wouldnt you agree, if it were not for youGov (a v big if, i know), that Boris was the least backable 1/3 shot ever? Im still wondering how he can be favourite…
151 - Unfortunately intent to gain or cause another to incur a loss has to be proved. Doubtless the individual in question would claim they were “doing it for a laugh” or some such.
From the Fraud Act 2006:
A person is in breach of this section if he—
(a) dishonestly makes a false representation, and
(b) intends, by making the representation—
(i) to make a gain for himself or another, or
(ii) to cause loss to another or to expose another to a risk of loss.
158 - We lost
No points. Marching On Together to the playoffs!
Samk,
Mine was meant to Tyson.
the numbers are changing
Mike, can you ban handles using your name or variations of?
163 - That is what they do do, they verify postals earlier and then they just shove them in with the other votes. Well as far as I am aware. Representatives of the candidates are at the opening of the postals and usually straw count them. So you get lots of rumours about postals being good etc
Fiar play to Ladbrokes (and I don’t say that very often) for betting in running on this. Sporting Index and others have closed their books.
157 speaking of BBC, does anyone know if election coverage (the live feed) is available outside the UK? I’m out of the country for a year and already exasperated by copyright laws on sport (even on the radio for goodness’ sake). Any ideas?
166. I know. Swines!…’We’re gonna see you win…’
153 Robert Waller. Where ex exit pollsters lack bottom Jack W’s ARSE is fearless !!!!
It seems it wasn’t just Nick Clegg who had a youthful flirtation with the Conservatives
http://www.hurryupharry.org/2008/05/01/what-ho-stoner-old-chap/
171 you can 5live out of the uk, news24 is uk only. you may get lucky with a special poltics feed.
162
Thanks Mark,but why such a tiny number of Lib Dem gains in view of how well you say they are doing each week in by-elections (real elections to use your words) as opposed to opinion polls?
New thread - Ken’s day - hour by hour on the markets
128.Tangent.
Will those results be announced tonight or early Friday morning.
175 thanks. 5live shuts down when it’s covering sport though
But yes 5live or Radio 4 might be the way to go. And here when I want unbiased analysis 
Update from ’spy’ in Barnet: over the last few hours it’s been ‘non stop’.
re 46 Crewe. ‘The party is understood to have already chosen a female candidate from a shortlist of two but will not announce this until after Dunwoody’s funeral on May 8.’ says the Guardian today. The website of the new candidate, the photogenic female Elizabeth Shenton, is at: http://www.elizabethshenton.com/ complete with bar chart ‘The Lib Dems are on the way up’
174 - Entirely possible - he’s spoken of the working-class Tory background of his parents before, and the YCs in the early 1960s were as much social as political.
178 - These should be counted overnight. They may come in a bit later than normal, though.
Hi Mike.
On the thread;
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/01/pbs-yougov-figures-are-confirmed/
Post 432 was not me as you indicate.
I was not impersonated again as I spotted it and tried to alert others, particularly as I spotted your impersonation and the
damage that could do. Hope I saved some of you chaps some £.
Sorry Casino and Phillipe.
Mike - was post 11) not an impersonation of you then?
“I thought this analysis would have been better for Boris than Ken. It isn’t. by Mike Smithson May 1st, 2008 at 6:10 pm”
TEST - Here’s the test with the new email address. Thanks Mike.
I cannot understand how any REAL Londoners can vote for Boris. Is Boris really better for London than Ken? is yes, Why?
Boris was more or less forced to run for mayor by his party leader because Cameron feels he was an embarrassment to the party with his behavior and wanted to see the back of him.
People leave your political allegiance to one side and vote for who is BEST for London.
Observation (to inject some perspective)
In the last 2 hours £30,000 have been matched in the Mayoral winner market, at the same time over £4.2 million has been matched on the Uefa Cup semi-final 90 minute market
185 Simple. ABK
checking if im trusted
whoever impersonated Mike, thats disgusting