PB exceeds 200,000 pageloads so far day
May 2nd, 2008
The traffic records go through the roof as we await the London result
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The traffic records go through the roof as we await the London result
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With regard to London, I cannot see the main news channels (eg BBC) saying it is unlikely Ken will hold on without there being the evidence that it’s trending very much towards Boris…
Sadly stuck at 98.75% of 400 net losses for Labour.
2. Could someone explain why Sky and the BBC disagree so much over the results? There’s a difference of at least 60 councillors between them (and at one point it was more like 100!). Are they using substantially different methodologies to call each seat, or what?
It would have been quicker to get my Grandmother to count the Mayoral votes.
Just her. By herself. By hand. On her own.
What do these machines f**king do? Laminate each ballot and dip it in yoghurt?
Another point to note - Iain Dale has Derek Wyatt stating “We have to clear out the crap in the cabinet.”
In Blair’s day local losses meant a cabinet reshuffle the next day. It doesn’t look like Gordon’s doing that. Could *that* become an issue for Labour MPs as well?
4. I bet if the ballots had been hand counted we’d be pretty much done by now.
3 - likely difference between including and not including the new authorities
5. clearing out the crap would require a strong enema for this lot…
Someone to compare the wait for the London mayor result to Zimbabwe in 5…4…3…
The rumour of a recount, because the mayoral election is “so close”, has slightly spooked the market. Ken has suddenly tightened to 16, from 25.
Boris drifting, very mildly.
Fraser Nelson says there is on 1% between Livingstone and Boris.
This London count is embarrassing. How difficult is it to feed the ballot papers into automatic counting machines which then enumerate the results, together with some human oversight for ambiguous papers?
Blair had a reshuffle and it did not work, indeed it made things worse as it looked like panic.
So if there is a reshuffle it will be a joke, not the day of the long knives.
With the level of disaster which is facing Brown he will have to be careful not to make more enemies, he has enough as it is and has made a lot of new ones on the back benches since Thursday.
9 Really, this is a bit like the farce in Zimbabwe.
‘Brown comparin himself to Major in’92.’ Has Brown just won an unlikely election? Or was this his Black Wednesday? I don’t get that at all.
Best site for latest news on Mayor, anyone ?
Gaz I think we identified the insertion point for a national enema earlier today. But politeness does not allow me to identify it again.
Lab have surpassed the -400 mark, the tories +300!!!!!!!!!
11. Not quite. He reports one rumour, amongst many, which says it is that close. Others say BoJo is well ahead.
Confusing tho.
Well Sky now has 407 net losses for Labour.
Lab lose 407 net on Sky
You are too fast ryans.
18. Very confusing.
4, 5 - machines record not just first, but also 2nd preferences. If done by hand, would require lots of stacking and restacking.
BTW, does anyone know if the tabultion process includes any random handcounts of a small % of ballots to audit the accuracy of the machines?
In my experience, such checks (and full recounts) tend to confirm the accuracy of the machine count. So I’m not saying the machines are rubbish. Rather, that it makes sense to do some double-checking.
Does Political Betting have a big enough font for ‘Ave it 08’s next post?
Sky News blog on C&N prospects
http://adamboulton.typepad.com/my_weblog/2008/05/by-election-has.html
This doesn’t seem very good PR from Gordo…
http://tinyurl.com/6e3×5k
In London yesterday, estimated that 2.4 million turned out to vote. Which are a lot of papers to push through the tabulators, one by one.
Notion that “slow” London count means Zimbabwe is bit over-the-top to put it mildly.
Plus wait for the final result, and whether your candidate won or lost, before trashing the system!
In 2004, the then-chairman of the Washington State Republican Party, a former King Co councilmember, vigourly supported the performance of the King Co Election department after the GOP candidate for Governor prevailed in the 1st statewide vote count. Then when his candidate lost, he went ballistic in his denunciations of KC Elections.
Was a humorous moment at the gubernatorial election contest trial when his original comments were shown to the court.
13. Brown has got the By-election writ issued for C & N to mitigate backbench critiscm i have no doubt. If Labour MP’s go into C & N critising Brown then it will be their fault. Think it is Brown and his shortermism at work again. If he loses C & N then i am sure that Brown will follow Livingstone!
According to BBC London Ploddick gave his second preference vote to Lindsay German of the Left List !!
John Pienaar 90 mins ago said he would put all the money in his pocket on Boris based on what he’s seen at the count.
24 - Good point, think I need to go down to Target and buy a bigger computer screen!
10 - The recount is only to see whether he won on first prefs I reckon!
Who was my tenner bet with that Boris would win by more than 6 after second prefs?
The tories have a lead of around 10% in the Enfield and Haringey GLA seat with 70% counted
Why didn’t they fly all the ballot papers to Sunderland to count them there.
23. It wouldn’t require that much restacking as most of the votes will stay for Ken or Boris. It’s not like STV or even AV where there are a lot more rounds.
Andrea - any news on Bromley and Bexley (or whatever it’s called)?
32 - exactly what I was coming on to post. That is the common-sense way to tie up the two sets of conflicting rumours.
The 1% and “how close it is” may well refer to whether Boris will win on first preferences or be “forced” to go to second preferences for the win. I just can’t discount all the comments by various journalists & politicians calling it strongly for Boris over the course of the afternoon.
As someone who voted yesterday (Len Duvall, KL & Labour) one reason for the slow pace of the counting is the fact that there are three separate ballots (Mayoral, GLA direct, GLA List) - though the fact that they are all put in one ballot box was not the brightest of ideas - it would have been more logical to have three ballot boxes.
From previous thread, I understand from our people at the count that in Brent&Harrow Labour is now ahead of the incumbent Conservative in the constituency vote. The Tory was ahead but I presume it is as more Brent boxes are open he has drifted behind.
A MAJOR worry - I am not sure what the pctge shares of vote on GLA will give us (Conservatives) if we lose one and so only win 8 of the 14 constituencies. If we don’t get any top-up seats, then Boris (assuming he wins) will not be able to get his budget through the Assembly on Con support alone (you need 9 to prevent the opposition blocking the Mayor’s budget. I suppose roughly we need 36% of the Party List vote to to top us up to 9 if we only win 8 constituency seats, maybe a bit less as parties under 5% will be excluded.
34 -
The by election will not have much effect in muting criticism of itself as that is just one seat and on the current vote, if it runs into a general election, would lose perhaps 180 seats.
Omelttes, eggs, breaking…..
North East GLA seat (Hackney, Islington and Walthan Forest) with 80% counted, Labour always ahead. Tories second. Greens and LD battling for third place
Checking the Fraser Nelson comment, does it mean that Boris is on 49%-ish and just short on first preferences? It’s unclear and doesn’t say close between the two, just that there’s 1% in it. Confusing…..
Chris Evans, Radio 2: people walking round the BBC with heads hung low !!!
37. How on earth could it be “so close” after every single shred of evidence, punter, commentator, politican and insider over the last 24 hours has pointed to nothing but a thumping Boris win?
Shurely Shome Mishtake?
34 - That’s a great suggestion!
37 - was wondering about the number of actually ballot papers, thanks.
Even if it is Boris by 1% it does not matter.A win is a win!
I can’t see how Sky get that number of losses , it must be something to do with the way they are treating the new unitaries . Labour’s England losses were circa 195 seats , Welsh losses were 116 not including Newport .
39. That is a worry.
There’s always the downside that high-turnout has driven out many Labour voters, who stayed at home last time, and who are blindly voting for the Labour Assembly candidate whilst they vote for Ken.
There’s also the possibility that *some* voters are voting Boris for Mayor and Labour for the Assembly.
That being said, I’d be astonished if the Conservatives went BACKWARDS in seats on the Assembly.
Completely astonished.
39 - I would not worry too much.
just put another 100 on ken at 12/1
45 - even if Boris is way ahead of Ken (highly likely) doesn’t mean he’s way over 50% in 1st preferences. Because the Paddick & the other small fry got more than a handful of votes, even if their totals and the aggregate is less than they were hoping and/or pundits (including many pbers) were expecting.
Indeed, the fact that he may be within range of an outright majority on the first count is stunning news.
34. or even Torbay. They were at a loose end last night and they’re pretty much on the ball when it comes to counting.
Enfield Times now saying that it’s too close to call in Enfield and Haringey seat….it’s a bit of flip flop…I guess it depends on if they new boxes added were from Enfield or Haringey
As I understand it, the GLA results will be announced individually as they are completed.
So not one single constituency has been finished yet.
They are saying 10pm for the overall Mayoral result - that sounds completely unrealistic. I would say Midnight at the earliest and it could well be 2am or 3am.
im betting most of paddick’s second prefs will be on ken in case you wondering if i am mad
51 - What extra knowledge do you have beside that made public?
Is PoliticalBetting.com an online hangout for the Conservative Club?
There’s no way Boris has lost this. Even that old Labour hag running his campaign pretty much conceded this was going the same way as the council election results.
Is it a 5% share to save (a fairly substantial) deposit? Could that could be in play for a recount as well, for someone like Berry?
According to Nick Robinson blog, via Finkelstein, today is St Boris Day according to Greek Orthodox church calendar.
51. Bully for you.
56 - Err, I hate to point this out but Mike posted the 2nd Pref suggestions from polls when possible and they were level at best and even a majority to Boris in one instance from Paddick.
Any chance you can lay off quick?
56 dumbo !! …. no we didn’t wonder at all …. your post at 51 was enough.
Thus Dizzy:
City and East - (80+% counted) Ken wins on first preferences
Greewnich and Lewisham - still counting, Ken leading 60:40 on first preference
Bexley and Bromley - (80+% counted) Landslide Tory victory
Havering and Redbridge - (80+% counted) Landslide Tory victory (bye bye Jaqui Smith)
SKy news are running no net council gains for lib dems.This is wrong.The Lib dems gained Hull,Sheffield,Burnley and St Albans,and lost W Lindsay,Pendle and Liverpool.This is a net gain of one.
Additionally one of Sky’s own reporters said the Lib dems still control Liverpool as one of “Independents” has joined the Lib dDems giving a majority of two!
Thus two net council gains fro Lib dems.
rogerh
63. Lynton Crosby needs to go to Crewe tomorrow to work his magic.
His “doughnut” strategy for London appears to have been a fantastic success.
no one actually knows anything - this is groupthink of the highest order - look up famous studies of the cuban missile crisis if you need to know more…
When are the results being announced? I’ve got a party to go to!
Patriots are still on course for 2 seats. Anyone else heard the same?
Some bitter Marxist Labour posters on previous thread criticizing Patriots……..
Nick Palmer, Michael Foot, Vladimir Lenin, Ed Balls, Billy Bragg, Tony Blair, Kirsty Wark, John McDonnell, Polly Toynbee, Neil Kinnock, The Millibands, Jon Cruddas, Gordon Brown, The BBC, Josef Stalin, Diane Abbott, Banksy, Alistair Campbell, The Guardian, Baldrick, Tessa Jowell, Karl Marx, Jack Straw, Victor Meldrew, John Prescott, Tony Benn, Ken Livingstone………YOUR BOYS TOOK ONE HELL OF A BEATING.
66 - Are you saying the people who have seen the counts are lying?
67. Still finished ahead of your lot though. Going backwards in W Yorks too, I’m pleased to say.
56. “Elephantman”
Any relation to “dolphins” a arch-Livingstonite poster who only appeared 4 days ago and has mysteriously ‘disappeared’ today?
Both escaped from the Zoo, have we?
lynton crosby made some famous strategic errors with the howard campaign (eg howard flight episode) and i fully expect something similar this time. sorry to contradict you!
May 2010 i’m hiring a DJ to play ‘things can only get better’ all night outside Millbank.
Who’s with me?
Are the GLA & Mayor electronic tallies online anywhere?
64. Yes and no. Sky is not counting Hull as a Lib Dem gain because it was Lib Dem after the 2007 elections. They merely lost it in the mean time to defections.
66 - You may have missed it but people are able to see the votes being counted and are posting the rogh figures, the politicos and journalists also have access to those same numbers. If the betting markets are showing Livingstone at 12/1 then there’s people in the know pushing it out there for very good reason.
Put simply, there are people who know what is happening, so you are wrong.
From what I can judge from the betfair “leader exit date” market. Gordon Brown is now about evens to be ousted as Labour leader by June 2009.
Crewe is now surely a certin Tory gain unless the Rennard machine can do something really special.
rogh = rough
I think.
67 great post. anyone who beats the lying socialist scum deserves respect
i think you fail to understand how information asymettry can lead to poor decision making
If you use the real calendar St Boris’s day is 15th May. But I suppose you are using that new fangled thing which was foisted on us by the Europeans in 1752.
“YOUR BOYS TOOK ONE HELL OF A BEATING.”
BNP fail to make expected breakthrough in Wrexham.
The BNP averaged just 11.4% of the vote in the seven wards contested, three of which they believed they had a serious chance of winning. This means that the BNP have still never won anything in Wales.
Burnley
The BNP averaged 22.8% of the vote in the ten wards they contested in Burnley, down from 25.1% in 2007, 30.0% in 2006 and 36.4% in 2004. They held the one seat they were defending, but their overall support was down across the town.
More bad news for the BNP.
For the first time in years they have won nothing in Bradford. The Conservatives have beaten them in Queensbury, a ward with two existing BNP councillors
Other
They also failed to win any seats in the Black Country boroughs of Dudley, Walsall and Sandwell. There were also no gains across the entire North East, Oldham and Broxbourne, a council where they held a seat until last year. The black country has been a strong area for the BNP, but their vote has fallen back sharply. In Sandwell it fell from a 33% average in 2006 to just 17.4% today.
In neighbouring Dudley, the BNP average vote has collapsed from 26.5% in 2006 to just 14.7% this year. There was only one ward, in the 10 contested, in which the BNP vote was higher than last year.
67 Emily Bullshite-Goebbels. Party eh …. hopefully somewhere in the central lane of the M25 with the rest of your pond life !!
Apologies to frogs and other more intelligent amphibians.
79 - I think you fail to understand that intelligent people can see the votes being counted.
64. Presumably one of the ‘old’ councils in Northumbria was Lib-Dem and the new unitary is NOC?
81. Good post, BNP failures are typically ignored.
76. Lay. He’s not going anywhere.
421 losses now. How low can they go?
81 - Great to see the Pratriots declining. Poor Emily Smythe-Braun
“Emily” the nasty Nazi please crawl back under your stone - for all the huffing and puffing the far right have done pathetically badly in an election where you had the easiest conditions to peddle your filth - remember the vast majority of good British Patriots oppose you.
Re: London ballot papers, will be interesting to see how many ballots were spoiled in this election.
Because combined ballots generally mean more spoiled ones, because voters get more confused that if they are dealing with separate papers.
Note that people most likely to make errors in voting are: older, less educated, disabled, immigrants, new & infrequent voters. Which in this election would likely mean that the complex ballot hurt Ken more than Boris. To what degree is hard to say; doubt that the differential will be anywhere near determiniative of the final result.
82: 11.4% is nothing to be celebrating. It’s still a high number.
bbc london 645pm - journo from ally pally who spent the whole day there - “it’s very close”
73 No tallies on line
I have just received an update and am told Labour ahead in both Enfield&Harringey and Brent&Harrow 86-87% counted.
David Roe (50) I do worry we will actually lose a constituency seat but hope we will gain it back in top-up.
39 - my strong hunch is that even if Brent & Harrow goes Labour because of high Labour turnout in their areas, the Tories should pick up a list seat instead, keeping their current Assembly plurality.
45 - read my post & David Roe’s at 32 again. The “so close” could refer to how close Boris is to a 1st preference win. If that really is the case, that’s entirely consistent with the other rumours of it being a thumping Boris win.
56 - if Boris only just misses out on a 1st prefs knock-out, Paddick 2nd prefs aren’t going to save Ken. They would have to split in an incredibly (in the true sense of the word) disproportionate manner.
2 - The BBC figures for councillors +/- do not include any of the seats in the four new unitary authorities. Despite the website saying that those councils have been ‘gained’ the seats change scoreboard is unaffected. I believe the SKY figures are based on ‘notionals’ derived from the 2005 county council results - those are the numbers being fed by the Press Association.
The problem with this approach is that the new unitaries cover areas which currently have a two-tier system so it is by no means clear that notionals based solely on county council seats are really appropriate. In addition, I think I’m right in saying that the new Cheshire unitaries have three seats for each old county council ward, Durham has two, whereas Northumberland has one, so there is a somewhat peculiar tripling or doubling of the ‘gains’ and ‘losses’, compared to the notionals, in respect of the Cheshire councils and Durham.
80 So Boris gets two days, like the Queen!
91 - What do you think the outcome is going to be?
50 & 92…why on Earth will the Tories lose a constituency seat given their vote share in London must be c. 10% up on last time?
hear hear Jack w!
SpreadFair have suspended their mayoral market.
99 - Oh, is elephantman onto something? Too close, Livingstone is going to clinch it?
After the horrible day the likes of Gabble, Mark Senior, Roger and Johnathon have had, I could almost live with throwing them the bone of keeping Ken in office.
Almost!
But deep down I still want to BoJo to do it!
97. 2004 was a foregone conclusion, so the non-Tory vote could afford to split all over the place. This time there is less of a non-Tory vote but it has all coalesced around Ken/Labour.
100 - Nope
102 - Alan J, do you think Livingstone is going to do it?
Labour losses are now at 434 on Sky. These numbers are so enormous that it is difficult to absorb, especially as these are losses based on a very bad year for Labour the last time they were up, and the level of core vote councils and wards involved.
It really a tsunami.
just got labour at 7/4 for the next general
104. No, as I said the non-Tory vote is a lot less then in 2004.
You do understand the difference between the constituency votes, and the Mayor votes, don’t you?
105 - A further issue to those I raised above at 94 is that, by using notional figures based on county council results, SKY is introducing a further baseline year - 2005 - for the four unitary councils. And that wasn’t such a bad one for Labour.
elephantman Are you a registered charity?
97 Archie S. Let us not forget those immortal words of Dame Angela Bogroll’s agent in 1997 who at the count said all was going swimmingly and who some time latter exclaimed :
Oh sh*t !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
101 Why has my day been horrible ?
101. Mark Senior’s prediction for Lib Dem gains was too pessimistic: he said they’d gain 10, but it looks like more like 30. I’d even dare to suggest that the local by-elections have been a good pointer to Lib Dem performance: they’re basically holding their own, but have struggled to make the advances against Labour that we saw during the last parliament.
Emily, is your party a fancy dress one? What are you going as? Rosa Luxemburg?
Live chat on ConHome getting v nervous as it’s reported by those at Ally Pally to be getting closer. Also: Labour now ahead in Enfield and Haringey with 90% counted
does anyone know where I can find out which ward the Conservatives won in The Rhondda ?
Weird results. I think last year the LDs advanced in terms of votes (compared to 4 years previously) but retreated in terms of seats. This year the vote has dropped but the seats increased.
I will never understand FPTP. And who can predict what will happen at the GE. Certainly not Baxter!
118 Joel Jones in Llantwit Fardre
Boris now at 1.08 on betfair
nobody’s risking anything anymore
Per Con Home - Peter Kellner says it’s:
Boris 46-47
Ken 40-41
Paddick under 10
115
There were a number of posters on here in the wee hours lampooning Mark Senior and his prediction.
Whilst his obsessive Lib Dem optimism is oft misplaced and based upon dodgy maths and extrapolating small samples, he wasn’t far off the mark this time.
I trust last night’s detractors (who got a bit nasty) will retract just as as publicly.
A quick comment on the dispute about how well the Lib Dems have done. It isn’t a great result for them, they haven’t made much progress and many Labour voters seem to have gone to the Conservatives.
However, they are going against 2004 which was an election they did very well. What is more they held their ground fairly well despite the very good Conservative performance. If the Conservatives do very well at the next GE they will inevitably take some Lib Dem seats but the results do indicate a certain resilience on the part of the Lib Dems.
So, while it is a bit silly for the Lib Dems to claim that this is a great triumph (which I don’t think they have in any case except a bit of hyperbole from Clegg) it is equally silly for Tories to argue this is a major problem.
114. Con 44% Lab 24%
Need I say more?
Re: St. Boris & Boris Johnson
–St. Boris was a pagan who converted for reasons of state to Christianity at urging of missionaries
–Boris Johnn was piccanniny-spouting wide boy who converted for reasons of state into multi-cultural teletubby at urging of political consultants
–Once in power, St. Boris consolidated his power by slaughering many boyars and their entire families
–Once in power, Boris Johnson will ________(fill in blank)
122. And that means?????
And the winner of the “Bad loser of the Day” competition can be found at Labour Home…
http://www.labourhome.org/comments/2008/5/2/124622/4491/0/post#here
Apparently the voters have voted and local democracy has lost!
And Boris is “wholly unqualified, is dangerously undiplomatic and who has a feral, right-wing Australian lunatic with his hand over the candidate’s mouth.”
116. Haha!
117 Look ….. will all the silly rampers and Great Newt sore losers just piss off.
Boris has won so easily that it’s tempting to suggest that he could have been found rogering half the Hersham Ladies Male Voice Choir publically down the Old Kent Road with Brian Ploddick sticking out of his arse and singing the red flag and he’d still win this race with something to spare !!!!
Go away !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Dear All,
Appreciating that I don’t have copyright to the tag, 59 & 93 are nix ville to do with this long serving DC fan !!
37 Boris by a huge and I mean huge margin.
Regards
Moi
84. Come on Jack she can have her place even if shes not caught on that her patriots are actually a bunch of socialists.
10. Elephantman can I just say that you seem to strike a bet every 2 minutes at the moment, which suggests…..well…..Good luck anyway, i hope it does well for you.
Crap prediction on the locals, I just didnt see Labour losses being so bad, oif they are 400 thats over double my own view and double Labour’s spin figure. In short it really is very bad.
As for Mayor I always felt it might be tight though acknowledged Boris’s position. I’m all green on it but its spare change profit. If Boris gets a decent marginm above 5% I think thats an immense coup.
112. That’s where the bookies record profits come from.
Anyone remember Peter Hitchins on This Week a few weeks ago saying how the Tories could never win again citing a rogue 3% poll lead. Seems like a lifetime ago.
122 - If that is right then Boris has won, probably 52-48. Sean Fear take a bow if it does happen. Any gap over 2 points on 1st prefs is probably too big to overcome.
It was an interesting election - the Lib Dems benefiting on the coat tails of the Conservatives!
Whilst i still think that Nick Clegg is the 21st century equivelent of Neil Kinnock
looks like Clegg is safe for now, despite Clegg quoting Kinnock at PMQ’s.
124. “while it is a bit silly for the Lib Dems to claim that this is a great triumph”
Who is claiming this? LDs on LD Voice predicted on average around a 35 loss. Most of us are saying the actual results are “good”, but certainly not a “great triumph”.
Of course the Patriots didn’t increase our vote in every ward. We have meagre resources compared to the old gang parties. We don’t have Communist Trade Unions donating millions of pounds of members money or Fat-Cat tax-exempt non-domiciled multi-millionaires donating 6 or 7 figure sums.
We are the Party of ordinary hard-working Britons. We rely on small donations of £10 or £20. Some resources were diverted to the London Elections which meant local wards couldn’t be leafleted/canvassed as per usual. We are ‘Feather-weights’ mixing it with ‘Heavyweights’ and doing a bloody good job.
Re: 84 Jack W - “Emily Bullshite-Goebbels. Party eh …. hopefully somewhere in the central lane of the M25 with the rest of your pond life”
I think it’s time for another nap, Gramps.
Figures from Reuters (second hand via ConHome).
Boris - 46/47
Ken - 40/41
Brian - under 10
If that’s true it’s pretty much over.
135. Coat-tails, Martin? Where do they fit with ‘The Great Squeeze’?
” The 8 Boris is probably ahead in are: South West, West Central, Croydon&Sutton, Bexley&Bromley, Merton&Wandsworth, Havering&Redbridge, Barnet&Camden, Ealing& Camden. Ken must be ahead in these 6: City&East, Greenwich&Lewisham, North East, Lambeth&Southwark, Enfield&Haringey [ doubtful now … that’s a change ] , Brent&Harrow [ also doubtful now]” (ConHome) [ my comments ]
I do not like ANY of this late news.
136 - There was criticism on here early, I think from Marcus Wood, about Lib Dems ’spinning like tops’, based on some Clegg comments.
Who’s the mayoral candidate who seems to think he’s some kind of aging club DJ in his pics?
139. I hadly call Labour on 24% a great squeese - LD’s have advanced in some places on the coat tails of Tories, just as LD’s advanced in the 90’s in some places on the coat tails of Labour!
These are pretty poor results for the LD’s given Labour’s popularity when you think about it! I think Labour have lost 2% of the national vote since 2004?
Looks like a good day for us Conservatives. I was also amused that the Liberal Democrats lost Liverpool this morning and regained it this afternoon!
Boulton:
Top 5 constituencies for turnout are all Johnson wins
Bottom 5 constituencies for turnout are all Ken wins
[96] That probably means the Lib Dems have dropped a seat then
140 - call me a wuss, but I’m greening up and going for a curry, instead of having a curry and worrying all night.
Turnout figures (voters / percentage) - from london elect Barnet & Camden 376,818 47.98 Bexley & Bromley 407,003 49.92 Brent & Harrow 367,337 43.20 City & East 470,863 39.86 Croydon & Sutton 360,221 49.06 Ealing & Hillingdon 401,671 44.08 Enfield & Haringey 351,536 46.03 Greenwich & Lewisham 347,252 42.95 Havering & Redbridge 369,407 45.50 Lambeth & Southwark 395,202 42.17 Merton & Wandsworth 362,542 47.16 North East 451,787 43.95 South West 415,092 46.21 West Central 343,182 48.65 TOTAL 5,419,913 45.48
Turnout figures (voters / percentage) - from london elect
Barnet & Camden 376,818 47.98
Bexley & Bromley 407,003 49.92
Brent & Harrow 367,337 43.20
City & East 470,863 39.86
Croydon & Sutton 360,221 49.06
Ealing & Hillingdon 401,671 44.08
Enfield & Haringey 351,536 46.03
Greenwich & Lewisham 347,252 42.95
Havering & Redbridge 369,407 45.50
Lambeth & Southwark 395,202 42.17
Merton & Wandsworth 362,542 47.16
North East 451,787 43.95
South West 415,092 46.21
West Central 343,182 48.65
TOTAL 5,419,913 45.48
100 - “why on Earth will the Tories lose a constituency seat given their vote share in London must be c. 10% up on last time?”
Differential turnout could do it. For instance, take Brent & Harrow, being cited upthread as a possible example. Normally, the Tories are far better at getting their supporters to go to the ballot box. But the interest generated by Ken vs Boris has increased turnout for both parties. But with the Tories coming from a higher turnout anyway, the overall effect is a lessening of differential turnout. In many areas in London, it seems that the pro-Boris increase in turnout has overwhelmed the pro-Ken increase in turnout. But Brent & Harrow and other areas might be the exceptions that prove the rule.
Remember, once you strip out “certainty to vote” from polling, Labour’s virtually always in the lead. It’s the differential turnout that generally makes the difference.
BTW, politicalbetting.com just got a momentary free advert on Sky News.
wow lynton crosby really is a genius
targeting your campaign on areas where your vote is strong
bet no one’s ever thought of that before (rolls eyes)
148 - Mine looks nicer.
Do we have any idea about the London wide list vote?
I kept looking at that BNP no seats bet but didnt quite go for it.
god bury looks like a polished turd
137 - The Auld Jacobite is aged enough to remember when your like were raining bombs instead of bs upon the people of London.
That’s what makes him so cranky when he sees posting by Lord Haw Haw in drag.
London Elects reports turnout ranged from 40% in City & East to 50% in Bromley/Bexley. According to the Guardian, Boris led in 8 constituencies, Ken in 6, but the ones Boris leads in will also show higher turnout.
151 - Yes it does!
152 Still go for 3 BNP (unfortunately - hope I’m wrong on this one)
[137] BNP-NF person. You are *really* not welcome here you know. beating on one of our more popular posters will not improve the disgusting image of the thuggish and borderline criminal elements in your parody party- B**ger Off.
144. I thought it was genius meself.
Thats the kind of determination to hang on that Mugabe would be proud of. Not that I’m comparing.
153 - are you betting on labour keeping Bury…
137 Emily Gobshite-Goering. Don’t you have a party to go to …. Nuremberg wasn’t it !! …. Oopps 70 years too late.
149 - “But with the Tories coming from a higher turnout anyway, the overall effect is a lessening of differential turnout” should read “But with the Tories coming from a higher turnout anyway, the overall effect COULD BE a lessening of differential turnout”
I wish there was an “edit post” function active for five minutes or so after posting to correct typos, etc.
EVENING STANDARS
“Boris Johnson is the new Mayor of London, his rivals conceded tonight.”
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-mayor/article-23481835-details/Boris+is+the+Mayor/article.do
I see the children are coming out to play. Lots of disinformation coming through probably from the same pirate. Let’s clarify the truth.
Ken is ahead in Enfield and Haringey, and in Harrow and Brent. No surprise. Ken won both last time. He needs these just to stand still.
It’s the others where Ken was ahead or very close where he has been almost wiped out or left Ken far behind. E.g. in Havering and Redbridge, Bexley and Bromley, and Merton and Wandsworth, etc. In these Ken is far behind as thy have swung strongly to towards Boris.
Given current count totals as put up in the 3 counting centres on screens seen by journalists Boris has won the election by more then 9% on first preferences and is close to 48-49% on first preferences.
Going through to second preferences he needs less than a quarter of these to win the Mayoralty. The evidence from the count is that second preferences are splittng to Boris 52% to 48%. Thus Boris has won far more then he needs and have won quite convincingly. This is not a close election.
The ‘Boris is close’ quote refers to 50% threshold needed to win on the first round!
If elephantman, dolphin are so convinced it’s close, on betfair please put your money where your mouth is. I’m ready to take it.
158. Who are you to say whether someone is welcome or not? The only person who has that decision is the editor in reality.
Cicero, I suppose you are one of these Liberals who does not believe in freedom of expression?
158. Oh come on Cicero. If they wanna come on and read speeches from Mosley they can go ahead.
They are also getting elected more than before, minor as they are and always will be. Maybe its time rather than taking a kind of allergic view, maybe we should just let the national socialists talk on….and on…and on.
158,161 that poster is just trying to wind you up. I wouldn’t rise to the bait.
161
Roma is an actual option.
ConHome shows that in C&N Conservatives were 4500 ahead of Labour on the local votes.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/goldlist/2008/05/and-now-lets-wi.html
165. That would be bad for the LD’s if the BNP had more gains than the LD’s!
would put the LD’s truiph into perspective?
Re 130, Jack W “117 Look ….. will all the silly rampers and Great Newt sore losers just piss off.
Boris has won so easily that it’s tempting to suggest that he could have been found rogering half the Hersham Ladies Male Voice Choir publically down the Old Kent Road with Brian Ploddick sticking out of his arse and singing the red flag and he’d still win this race with something to spare !!!!
Go away !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!”
No, don’t hold back Jack, tell it like it is
Seats sizes vary quite a bit - the 2 biggest are Ken wins (though with a lower turnout).
164 - Tolerated is NOT the same thing as welcomed
166 Sean F. You know me Sean I like a bit of wind !!
So is it Boris by 10, 12 or 14 ??
171 And I’ll bet by a lower % as well…
Why are stories about the London Mayoral figs conflicting?? Is there anything more definitive?
165 - Good point. Sunshine is indeed the best disinfectant.
[143] If I had not used up my crankiness on the poster from the traitor party I might pick a bone with you Martin- but in fact I feel pretty good about how we’ve done- satisfied that we saw you lot off in most of the seats we need to hold against you: eastleigh, Colchester, Poole etc. and pleased we did well in Oldham, Hull, Burnley, Derby etc. So with that I am off to the pub to raise a glass to the changing political order… and the humiliation of the Fascists.
Lets call it, how many do people think Johnson (or if Mugabe has been advising him, Ken) will win by?
I see from the website below that with 50% of the votes counted, the BNP was BELOW the 5% mark.
http://www.hopenothate.org.uk/2008_HOPE_not_hate_campaign_blog+BREAKING_NEWS!_The_BNP_has_dipped-ref190
Evening all
Returned from a most enjoyable day at Lingfield, aiding by backing WATAMU at 4s and getting the last forecast up !!
From last night:
“My view on numbers: CON +250 LAB -200 LD -50 (plus or minus 30 all round). Vote share - CON 42%, LD 25%, LAB 25%. ”
Methinks I should stick to the horses though I wasn’t bad on the vote shares.
178 10%
175 - Right now, everything is speculation, extrapolation, calculation.
Awaiting actual returns, which won’t be available for a wee while yet.
Probably 6%, Jack. Declaration imminent for City & East.
Martin how is gaining seats from the Conservatives in Colchester and other places working on their coat tails .
Note my forecast of 10 gains was England only so the comparison is to 15 not 30 odd
Rather more accute than Martin’s 100-200 losses
164 Congratulations to your party on a very,very successful night;I would sat this is 80-90% as good for the Tories as 1995 was for Labour.
You do hit a serious point-freedom of sppech.However much someone dislikes something said,as long it is not directly inciting violence/lawbreaking then,to my interpretation of the law,it is lawful to say it
178 - When someone pushed me a few days ago to give a prediction I said Boris 52.5 Ken 47.5. I stick by that.
178 I would imagine, Yokel, that Ken is going to offer him a draw and suggest a run-off. Wadyathink?
172. I suppose it is a bit like LD’s andf Nick Clegg - Clegg is tolerated but not welcomed because ….Nick Clegg is like Neil Kinnock!!!
It was funny when Clegg did the paraphrasing from kinnocks speech at PMQ’s the other day all his MP’s were in stoney silience and i am sure the female LD MP from scotlands jaw dropped! 
Further thanks to Jack for explai