The election thread continued….
May 2nd, 2008
Picture: a Jeremy Vine stunt from the BBC’s so-called coverage
The story is illustrated with one of the stupid gimmicks that the BBC used overnight to masquerade the fact that their election coverage has been abysmal.
What we saw was Jeremy Vine going into a bar in the Wild West and “shooting” at cans which then produced number showings how the Lib Dem did at previous elections. Eh?
How the BBC must despise us by substituting this for a proper results service and good analysis…and we pay a licence fee for this rubbish!
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Spreadfair 334-342 = midpoint 338 up 12 since last night.
SPIN still no price, will phone.
It could be worse.
…..
Presumably.
They did have Clemency Burton-Hill on. *sighs*
Anyway, there’s a large discrepancy between BBC and Sky News councillor figures. Any chance they’ll agree on a definitive result, or will we have people cherrypicking the stats that suit them best?
459 of last thread in response to Clegg hitting the Tories -
But it represents the reality of the Lib Dem position. They fight Tories in general elections, not Labour. A tsunami of Tory votes in the next general election will drown the Liberal Democrats back to 1992 levels of support.
The most satisfying thing for Clegg is they seem to have held their ground. But that doesn’t alter the basic electoral fact that they hold most of their seats from the Tories. Unless you really think they can win against Labour in Liverpool and Sheffield in 2010. I don’t.
So Clegg attacking the Tories is doing the only thing he realistically can. It’s not rocket science, just psephology
I’m due Mark Senior £20 - I only overestimated labour by 4%
Why is Vine doing that? Please tell me it wasn’t a long stunt.
My last results had the council wrong…DOH!…
Whoops, got the councils wrong…
SKY NEWS RESULTS so far:
Council / Seats
************
CON +8 +243
LAB -9 -364
LIB +0 +40
OTH +1 +81
(Includes Cherwell Result [CON HOLD])
+243 - Amazing night for the Tories
Vine seemed to be unsure of his script. But considering what rubbish it was perhaps he was in a state of denial.
While I was writing this long post, the thread changed, so I’ve re-posted it here:
Just read a rather fun article from a despairing Labour supporter on CiF here: http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/jonathan_myerson/2008/05/we_are_really_in_trouble.html
Excerpts:
“Yes, I sympathise with all those Labour councillors who have worked hard and diligently run their councils only to now find themselves looking for a new hobby. But sympathy is valueless in this game. As a party, we are really in trouble. When we lose Bury to the Tories, it’s time to… it’s time to… well, that’s the problem, isn’t it? What can Labour do now? Another relaunch? You start to look like Madonna. A new raft of policy proposals? The cupboard is bare, we’ve given all we’ve got. A massive tax giveaway? He tried that with his last budget and look what happened.
The trouble is, when you hit this low, people aren’t going to believe any of it.”
And:
“When you lose four seats to the Socialist People’s party of Furness, you really know you’re in trouble. No, when you lose to Boris Johnson, you’re really in trouble. When Cameron announced the Blond Oaf’s candidacy all those months ago, we laughed. We thought this is ridiculous. OK, the Tories want to have some fun, make a splash but they know they can’t win. But a combination of Veronica “Goebbels Knew Nothing” Wadley and Lynton “Say Nothing” Crosby has made this clown acceptable to half of London. Add in the national swing and he’s unstoppable.”
I think that last point is particularly insightful. In London, Labour completely underestimated Boris. In fact, many of us did - I know I thought of his candidacy as a bit of a joke before he started racking up massive poll leads. But Labour’s failure to take his threat seriously may well have cost them London.
It’s remarkable to think just how much things have changed in a relatively short time. Less than a year ago, Gordon Brown was triumphant and looking to win an early election with another decent majority; now he’s led Labour to utter disaster. And if you’d told someone back in 2004 or so that Boris Johnson is probably going to be the next Mayor of London, they’d have thought you mad. Yet here we are - now, it would take a miracle for Boris to fail to win it. In fact, expectations have changed so much that if Ken were to somehow achieve that miracle and hold on, Boris would be savaged by the media for failing to win against an unpopular, scandal-ridden mayor in the most anti-Labour national climate in decades.
Also: I think the result of the Crewe & Nantwich by-election must now be something of a foregone conclusion.
Was that really the BBC’s coverage last night? Looks like CBBC
Maybe because Labour did badly the Beeb have decided to trivialise politics so it ultimately becomes irrelevant
5 - Felt like it went on forever. Honestly, the BBC gimmicks reached new lows last night. Personally I thought Ken The Menace biffing Desperate Dobbo was even worse than a stetson-clad Vine.
Yes Jeremey Vine was truely cringe worthy. He must have done that Cowboy thing along with terrible accent three times over the evening. It was almost as bad as the “Ming with the Bling” he did last year.
5 cuddles. It lasted five looooooooooooooong minutes !!!!!
5 - Oh it was cringe making, replete with a Texan accent reminiscent of the Sheriff from the Cannonball Run.
5 - A good few minutes, but it felt more like 20. Complete with faux-wild-west accent from Vine. You’d think they’d have learned after this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gSZbvnVfqfE
I didn’t see that part but I saw the ascent of man (tory) piece and the stalin to Mr Bean bit. Watched for about half an hour and turned off. Absolutely dreadful broadcasting. For the first time in my life I am tempted to write and complain.
BBC Complaints,
PO Box 1922,
Glasgow G2 3WT
http://www.bbc.co.uk/complaints/
3 - switching to an assault on Labour, as an attempt to dislodge them as the “party of the left,” might result in short-term pain at the next election but would seem to be their best long-term strategy.
By the way, even the BBC’s website are calling last night’s result ‘truly dire for Gordon Brown’. Difficult to see how you could spin it any other way…
Re the BBC Coverage - shocking. Simply shocking looking at the pic above. Given the amount and quality of incisive analytics and quick reporting on here surely we can put forward / create an alternative in some way… please…
12, I concur that Ming the Bling was bad.
There seems to be a modern day conspiracy to stop treating people like grown ups. I’m not watching an election prog at 1am because I’m a curious 7 year old, for god’s sake. And even if I were I’d be disappointed with the puerile efforts on display.
We’d be better off having election night chaired by Jet from Gladiators. At least it’d keep me interested:p
CALLING Mr PALMER
previous thread 465 Nick Let’s call it £30 as it’s a good cause and knowing you’re helping others will take some of the sting out of these results.
Also well done for working to stop the Nazis.
I am deliriously happy today - now I know what it must have felt like to be a Labour supporter in 1995-97 - I’m not looking forward to the inevitable eventual disappointment in 15 years but I can live with it.
ALL PBers who doubted Boris should also pay a fine to:
Helen & Douglas House, 14A Magdalen Road, Oxford, OX4 1RW
3 I also replied on the last thread but in short Lib Dems could win seats from Labour in Newcastle and Hull. Sheffield Central looks a good prospect. And Chris Rennard has a plan for Liverpool I believe (hardest place to win in my view).
Mr Smithson, sir (tugs forelock respectfully before venerable political betting genius) - a couple of days ago you forebore to pass comment on how you were going to be viewing Nick Clegg’s performance in these elections. Given the graphic above (and quite how intriguingly ominous/enigmatic you made it sound at the time), would this be an appropriate time to ask you to return to that subject?
20. or enigma (keep up to date old chap)
Did anyone see the interview with the Zimbabwean minister on the BBC? The guy was gloating about UK local elections saying Brown has no right to comment on elections considering his results…hehe
16 - The problem is that the BBC seems to be staffed by a squillion under-paid meedya wannabes. They should cut their staff in half and pay 30% more. You get the distinct impression that last night was the result of a massive room of 22-year-olds brainstorming while mainlining Ribena.
Look at the budgets of Sky News and BBC News and tell me the Beeb give value for money.
4 Mark Senior owes me a tenner which if he reads this he can send here:
Helen & Douglas House, 14A Magdalen Road, Oxford, OX4 1RW
3,17. LDs are not up against Lab in that many marginal seats, and are not ideologically all that different either.
So this strategy would be rather odd.
Tories leading Labour in Enfield & Haringey GLA seat (marginally Lab held in 2004) according to local paper after 38% counted.
Re the BBC; well said Mike! Absolutely agree, the BBC coverage was a discrase; they were also miles behind the results compared to Sky (who incidently did not patronise their viewers al la Jermey Vine!).
Think this has already been posted, but just incase….
BBC Results: CON +240, LAB -297, LIB +27
(150 out of 159 councils declared)
And just for reminders…
SKY Results: CON +243, LAB -364, LIB +40, OTH +81
SPIN prices up tonight, IG this sunday zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.
Betfair still odds against a Con maj at 2.06. I think SF has it right. Should be odds on.
24, Jet was an integral part of my childhood. I don’t know who this Enigma is (presumably a new gladiator) but she’ll have to go some to replace the fine memory of Jet in my affections.
26, like the NHS or education the BBC is a classic example of money not being the limiting factor to performance. What they need are a few grown ups to stand up and say “Messing about with stupid graphics is no replacement for swift reporting of results and incisive analysis.”
The basic errors in the coverage are terrible.
“The Conservatives now control 62 councils across the UK”
O RLY?
The BBC’s coverage was dire. I know relatively little about politics so I like having graphs and tables to help me get a sense of what’s happening, but the BBC failed to use their graphics effectively last night.
What was most frustrating is each of Vine’s ‘gimmicks’ were so intricate that he had to repeatedly waste time explaining the ‘Wild West’ concept or the ‘Stalin to Bean’ concept to the audience, rather than going into detail on the results. It was pathetic (although I disagree with previous comments about a Labour-bias, which I didn’t notice last night).
I felt sorry for Professor Anthony King, a guy who obviously knows his stuff and occasionally came out with something insightful…then Vine pops up with his stupid graphics. Sigh.
I can sort of understand that kind of gimmickry at 10:15pm on a General Election night when there’s nothing to report. At 1am on a local election night when the party of government is being decimated? No need, Jeremy, no need. The only people watching are the obsessives, we don’t need this kind of stuff. It’s sad that the supposedly dumbed down, lowest common denominator networks in America credit their viewers with greater intelligence than the BBC do on election nights.
Just think of the unalloyed joy, the side-splitting laughter, the shrieks of delight, the tears of merriment cascading down - Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you Mrs Cherie Blair!
Aren’t the local election output on BBC always a bit less serious than the GE output?
22 - I’ll be interested in seeing any information suggesting that the Lib Dems can make that progress to go with their council gains. I’ve not written anything about politics in Northern England for a few years but last time I looked at the figures there they seemed totally unrelated to council results.
But Lord Rennard does need to switch his targets from Tory to Labour. Whether Clegg will be given the time to complete a realignment if he loses 10/15 seats in 2010 is another matter.
Any Lib Dem result at the next GE where they lose less than 10 seats would be a great result if the Tories win an overall majority. Whether enough people realise that for the narrative not to be against the Lib Dems is another matter.
The fact that people like Thrasher are writing these results as a Lib Dem negative when I think it is astonishing you stayed at 1/4 of the vote suggests not.
I think the Conservatives will be frightened of doing anything about the BBC so they will go for the default position of the status quo.
They should say this is not a matter for politicians - it’s a British “institution” and the people should decide - ie have a referendum. Referendum to decide if licence fee compulsory or not.
If you want it - pay for it. If you don’t, you don’t get it. This would be feasible from 2012 after digital switchover.
The BBC love telling us how marvellous they are - if so everyone will happily pay for it.
Added bonus - a complete end to the waste of Court time on prosecutions for non-payment.
23. net gains is way above expectations so Clegg shares will bounce. Victory on home turf will help him as well. UNless there were sitting LD MP’s with dire results in there area then he was going to be OK and I can’t see any disasters so far.
When things settled down thinking LD’s will ask why they have not shred more in anti labour spoils but the bottom line is a net gain of seats is better than expected and so Clegg is secure. No leadership mutterings.
9 Oddly I think this post gives Labour the only crumb of comfort that can be found in yesterday’s disaster. It notes how rapidly things can change in politics. What goes up can come down again very quickly. It is (just) possible to imagine a scenario in which Brown falls on his sword or is deposed in an efficient and relatively bloodless way, repalced by a younger, more optimistic leader .. how different things might look ..
33. check this out for the new gladiator batch > http://tinyurl.com/5dyp2z
I met Jet in Leeds once. she is quite short, but still very pretty!
Come on William Hill (and the others) and follow the PP lead and pay out. Would be nice to get my hands on the wedge at the start of the weekend.
CON hold Epping Forest. The “Patriots” lose two councillors. w00t!
40
Well I disagree. I think the Conservatives would do politics, teh BBC and the voters a favour by forcing the BBC to slim down and cut the licnce fee by 15%.
There are lots of areas obvious to me as a viewer - multiple foreign correspondents covering US elections for exampe - where a small headoucnt reduction will save millions.. And then there are the digital channels to sell. And local TV.. and…
Oh my god, worse than the Ming Bling Thing? That was bad enough!
I think the Lib Dem results will need some analysis before they are judged to be good or ill.
True they have held steady in terms of councils and seats. But this is against a very poor unpopular government. In the event that the Tories can move on from this and bring out some more detailed stuff nearer an election, how well positioned are they?
If the impression I got from Thrasher is correct, their national vote share projections are worse than under Ming.
Furthermore, of all the parties, they need the mid term local election momentum more than the others.
It seems as if ‘the others’ are increasing their hold on local and national politics and whilst that once repreented a vote for the LibDems, now the voters have a wider choice.
Figures from RCT and Newport will push Labour well over the 300 losses mark when the BBC add them. Even Auntie will have this as an ‘off-the-scale’ Labour defeat.
LDs gain +24 - not great..
And I we Americans had awful election night coverage!
45 - Or as Jack W called them, the Pratriots
Conservatives miss out in Harrogate:
Con 27 (+2)
Lib Dem 21 (-2)
Other 6 (nc)
Re the BBC I think the key bias point was that they dumbed the whole thing down to try and make Labour’s disaster less werious..treat all like a bit of a joke so it wouldnt feel so bad…the look on George Osbourne’s face when they returned from one of teh sketches was priceless..it was utter bewliderement (some may say it looks bewildered much of the time anyway
43, I’m rather jealous.
(BBC kicking continued).. the low point for me was watching a real live reporter at the count in Colchester simply not understanding what was going on behind him and bullsh*tting away like mad - (his appearance with a supporting production cast of no doubt several dozen no doubt costing even more than the silver bullets in JVine’s smoking gun
)
What an exciting two days for pbers!
OT - OREGON PRIMARY
Ballots are going out in the mail today; note that all elections in Oregon are vote-by-mail.
In addition to the presidential race, there are plenty of statewide and local primary races on the Beaver State ballot.
Including a very intersting race for the Democratic US Senate nomination; the winner will run against incumbnet GOP Senator Gordon Smith in November.
The two leading candidates for the Dem US Sen nomination appear to be state House Speaker Jeff Merkley and Portland lawyer Steve Novick.
Note that Novick is 1) less than 5 feet tall, and 2) has a hook instead of a hand on one arm. And he is running a very intersting campaign as anti-establishment, not-your-average-politico candidate
Check out his campaign website & TV commericals via this link:
http://www.votehook.com
9. Great post[except the last bit. Keep a lid on it old chap].
Looking forward to tomorrow’s Grauniad and Indie.
where is the link to the vine cowboy clip on youtube?
50 - To Labour (sic) my tsunami analogy. I think the Lib Dems need to find a strong tree to hold onto when the Tory wave comes. If they can stay lodged the same point they can reach inland the next time the Tory tide goes out.
Meanwhile the Labour beaches can be approached in 2010 so that in the next election they can attack both the other parties to get nearer the point they force the hung parliament that can deliver them the holy grail of electoral reform.
49 Its a bit like last year when the Con gains and Labour losses kept mounting throughout the Friday - making the BBC which had accepted Labour’s spin the night before look foolish. How much expectations have changed today can be matched against this from the Guardian
“It was, as expected, a bad night for the Labour party. By this morning it appeared the party can expect to lose over 200 seats when all the results are in later today. The total might exceed 250.”
Might exceed 250
58. Will be Brown in the Brown.
“I felt sorry for Professor Anthony King, a guy who obviously knows his stuff ” i think that must be a different professor Anthony King….
I see Betfair has topped the million pound mark with traded bets on the mayor. Not bad.
The BBC are always crap at big set piece events like this. They panic that they have to justify their monstrous subsidy from the taxpayer at these times, so they splurge money on it, with a complete absence of thought or taste.
Wimbledon coverage would be hugely improved too by anyone-but-the-BBC getting the broadcast rights.
52. The Tories didn’t miss out in Harrogate.
There were not enought seats up for grabs to take it. They won EVERY seat fought this time, gaining two and taking one off the LibDems which now has about a 750 majority!
No, Sally (48), that does not make much sense, does it?
If you wish to maintain that the Lib Dems have increased the number of councillors and councils that they hold ONLY because of the unpopularity of the Labour Government, then surely this must also hold true in the case of the Tories - and perhaps even more so.
What I found yesterday was that many voters were making anti-Labour comments, but nobody pro-Tory ones.
So perhaps you may be right - but this would apply to the Tory advance as well.
27- very good cause Kingbongo. Know it well.
Nice veggie cafe on the same road
64- they need to give you some commission Mike- I guess this site generates 30-40% of their political business. They make 15k on 1 million- margins of 30%- I guess your shout should be about 1.5k
Times - Tories claim victory for Boris:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3862552.ece
SKY NEWS RESULTS so far:
Council / Seats
************
CON +9 +265
LAB -9 -381
LIB +0 +35
OTH +0 +81
(Includes Cheshire West Result [CON GAIN])
BBC Results: CON +243, LAB -297, LIB +24
(152 out of 159 councils declared)
Why did the BBC coverage finish circa four o’clock? I couldn’t face hours of waffle before the results came in so I went to bed early and got up just after 4 am to watch results. All I could get on the BBC was the World News although the Radio Times said the coverage would continue until 6 am. Was it pulled early because the coverage was so dreadful?.
Also, did the BBC realise that it had dumbed down too much because last year Jeremy Vine’s ghastly Ming’s Bling was shown on “Breakfast News” but this year “Breakfast News” was mercifully Jeremy Vine and graphics free?.
i
The Guardian (!!!) is tipping BoJo to win http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/may/02/london08.london
We are getting very close to the 400 loss mark for Labour on Sky, which is my marker as they seem to know what they are doing.
As a firm supporter of the Beeb and its ethos of public service broadcasting and the licence fee it saddens me to say that the coverage last night was in the most part piss poor !!!
It was like amateur night at ElectionLite4U !!!
Anthony King was a shadow of himself, indeed a deathly palour seem to seep from his presence. Vine was by turn shambolic, inaccurate and embarrassing ….. cowboy was about right !!
The only glimmer was the the blog spots but they were used infrequently and with little interface to the studio. The results service was mediocre that in light of the resources available to the Beeb must be seen as a dismal failure.
Must do vastly, vastly better !!
Boulton: ” Lab result beyond worst fears”
Ealing & Hill - 48% counted, Boris about 50% Ken about 35%
West Central - 42% counted, Boris about 60% Ken about 30%
South West - 44% counted, Boris about 50% Ken abotu 35%
Lambeth & Southwark - 46% counted, Boris about 30% Ken about 50%
Croydon & Sutton - 43% counted, Boris about 50% Ken about 30%
Merton & Wandsworth - 40% counted, Boris about 50% Ken about 35%
(from conhome chat)!
67, obviously vote switching can either be rejection of the former (a protest vote) embracing the latter, or a combination of the two as is frequently the case.
The Labour Party has suffered quite a rejection at the polls, and from a very low base.
So, where did the voters go to?
Split between Lib Dems and Tories, with the Tories getting the lion’s share.
Further, the Conservatives made gains from the Lib Dems, though it looks like Clegg’s made a moderate net gain of councillors overall.
So, voters are rejecting Labour, and generally turning to the Tories with a sight net benefit to the Lib Dems.
Decent performance for the Lib Dems, but Calamity’s assertion that they’re the only national opposition undermines a solidish result with blatantly overegging the cake.
OT - OBAMA’S TOP TEN CAMPAIGN PROMISES
(from his appearence last night on the David Letterman Show) - pber should esp. appreciate #9; had to change the spelling of one word to make it past the pb filter!)
10. To keep the budget balanced, I’ll rent the situation room for sweet sixteens.
9. I will double your tax money at the crapz table.
8. Appoint Mitt Romney secretary of lookin’ good.
7. If you bring a gator to the White House, I’ll wrassle it.
6. I’ll put Regis [Philbin] on the nickel.
5. I’ll rename the tenth month of the year “Barack-tober.”
4. I won’t let Apple release the new and improved Ipod the day after you bought the previous model.
3. I’ll find money in the budget to buy Letterman a decent hairpiece.
2. Pronounce the word nuclear, nuclear.
1. Three words: Vice President Oprah.
I’m a newbie and a bit dense. Can somebody explain why BBC has:
Con +243
Lab -297
LD +24
while Sky has:
Con +265
Lab -381
LD +35
?
69. The Tories have increased their base to massively levels, beyond even the spinners expectations despits massive year on year increases. The Lib dems have failed to make any notable inroads. The may have met the spinners expectations, but that was because they were forcasting a significant retreat.
Anyway, as Clegg says, we will number crunch when the dust has settled. But my feeling is that when it has, there will be some numbers he would rather have left obscured.
The feelings of Lib Demmers today are coloured by their expectations of disaster.
Adam Bolton: “Boris clearly ahead in 8 seats, narrowly ahead in 1 (Enfield),”
Boulton - still not counted 50% of 1st prefs.
Boris well ahead in 8 constituencies
Boris narrowly ahead in 1 constituency
Ken ahead in 4 to 5 constituencies
(Total = 14 so maybe one is wavering between even and Ken)
80 His number 4 pledge had better be for real - and across the whole Apple portfolio!
Former MP Ron Davies elected to Caerphilly council
85 Nice, Whiter than white………..
42. Yes you’re right insofar as an 18% swing (ie the difference between Labour’s share in YouGov in September and the Tory share last night) cannot be deep - you just can’t have such a substantial bloc of voters (some 11 million, or thereabouts) switching allegiances in such a short time and, at the same time, having absolute certainty that their change is irrevocable. Some will, sure, but nowhere near a majority of that huge number.
The challenge for Labour in the next few months is whether it can stop that wide but shallow swing cementing, if that’s not mixing metaphors!
85 Jack W has freed you!
most of the BBC should have been forcibly moved to Salford, as was planned. that would have cut costs considerably, but somehow they managed to fabricate enough wildly exaggerated “costs to the license payer” - purely because most BBC workers live entirely in their little west london bubble and would squirm at the thought of having to even speak to northerners.
Beeb saying that Tories think that Boris has a chance of winning on 1st preferences !!
Brown to announce the Queen speech in advance again, why not just announce the announcement of the announcemnt of the Queens speech, in an announcement to the press.
90 - Amazing if it happens
71. Labour getting towards -400 on Sky. Utterly amazing. This has gone beyond a meltdown!!!!!!!!!!!! I don’t think theres really a word to describe the extent of these losses? 300 was the absolute upper limit where Labour would have had a catastrophe….
Re. BBC coverage. Those of us that sat thrugh Jermey Vines pieces should be gratful that we’ve witnessed one of the all time car crash TV moments!
At current rate they will be lucky to count 1st prefs by midnight.
90 - Ooh I have a free lunch riding on that!
85 - a great day for badger watchers everywhere…
91, oooh. That will reinvigorate Labour.
Is he going to reannounce the palstic bag helpline too?
90- Not eveb YouGov was predicting that! Anyway its easy to get ahead of ourselfs…everybody calm…;)
88 Ted. Embrace Jack’s ARSE …. it’s free for all … or is that a free for all !!
Strangely, very little excitement over the London mayoral election on the streets. Of Seattle, that is.
Except for your’s truly, that is - am all agog! Must calm myself with a soothing latte, and perhaps sample a little Danish . . . if she’ll allow the liberty, that is . . .
Just spent a very pleasant day in Henley. It will be even pleasanter when it has a LD MP.
Tell me, please, Bozza will stand down now, won’t he? Not much point in hanging around for 2 years, by which time he will be half way through his mayoralty.
I know Livingstone did not stand down, but at least he was an MP for somewhere in London.
How will Boris find the time to do the work to justify his Westminster salary now? A lot of political capital will be made out of it if he does not stand down very soon. Go now - move writ Tuesday.
Labour government people like Y Cooper seem to be saying that Labour have done the right thing and all they have to do is do more of the same. Now where have we heard that before?
As Mandelson recommended: back to basics.
100 - Remember the Danes are Vikings. You might want to be careful
Fantastic results for the Tories in Wakefield… only a 37-vote Labour majority in Wakefield North, the Tories winning Pontefract North, and Ossett… Labour only holding on to the council with a majority of one!!! Amazing! I’d never have dared hope for such a great result.
101. Watch out for Bozza Snr!
85. He’ll have to watch badgers a little more Caerphilly now (ouch!)
101. were you campaigning?
So when people were making their “Oh if we lose more that 200 seats its really bad” statements, which figures were they using? I.e should we assume its the BBC results so its really really bad, or the SKY results so its really really really bad?
Labour to hold Rhondda Cynon Taff from their website
Lab -12
PC +7
LDem +2
Ind +2
Con +1
81 - don’t you mean that Tory vote has risen way above their base? Though the base itself may indeed be growing.
97 - worth reading the latest from the Mole -
http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/themole,,left-will-demand-change-after-labour-loses-300-plus-seats,28188
suspect it’s not just the 42 day internment that’s dead in the water now. Will Brown be able to get *any* legislation through?
85-Badgers beware!!!
101 Seriously Bamboozling Self.
107 - No, teaching maths.
93. How about vapourisation?
99 I’ve given up on older men
For any potential Max Moseley’s who want to suffer and missed the BBC show - the Beeb is so proud of their production that highlights are available on
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7375250.stm
I’m hearing that Ploddick is strugling very badly and may not poll much more than 10% !!
Apologies if already posted but BBC24 4pm news mentioning rumours that a possibility Boris will win on first preferences..also Hilary Benn on..actually doesn’t inspire the same degree of loathing as most Labour’s slimy cabinet. Also said expecting result at 8.30pm.
103 - You make a good point. But in these parts the Danes are far outnumbered by the Norwegians, who keep their uppity cousins well in check, thanks not only to greater numbers but superior angst.
102- Are you saying Gordon Brown is going to have an afair with Jacqui Smith?
Money buyers in on Betfair now.
All over bar the shouting.
109 - A relief for Labour if that’s confirmed. I posted I had heard they held it earlier but not seen figures yet. But that result added to the Beeb figures takes Labour over 300 losses even on their figures.
Anyone got Newport yet?
114. Is that a lib dem euphemism for campaigning?
London Elects : 2.4 million Londoners voted.
O\T
CLINTON ON INTRADE
…is at 25, http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=177134
So guess what will happen after her victory in Indiana next tuesday?
And after all the pundits will agree that she will IN Kentuky and be quite competitive in Oregon?
it will grow up to 30…
Newport from their website:
Lab 18
Con 11
Ldem 6
PC 1
Ind 1
with 6 seats undeclared and another 7 being recounted. lab need to win 8 of these 13 to retain control.
Boris - 1.05
Ken - 18
imminent result announcement?
99- JackW- if your ARSE calls this anywhere near the money it’ll will shake up the polling world. Seriously.
BTW- I put 300 notes straight on betfair last night at 1.2’s such was my confidence in your ARSE. Hedged a bit today, but am going to come out of this very nicely indeed. Will make up for Ken going. Much appreciated JackW.
By the way this song is how i feel about brown right now.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_eXw47qb4U0&feature=related
SKY NEWS RESULTS so far:
Council / Seats
************
CON +9 +267
LAB -9 -381
LIB +0 +32
OTH +0 +82
(New Result: Harrogate [NOC HOLD])
BBC Results: CON +243, LAB -297, LIB +24
(152 out of 159 councils declared)
This counting is disgracefully slow. Why is it slower than a GE?
75
I can understand the need for so called public service broadcasting 50 years ago when there was nothing else,now seems that they are using the ‘public service’ in the same sense as the NHS which is absurd.
Let the BBC become a subscription channel then the consumer can choose whether they want it or not instead of being forced to pay for it.
With their current guaranteed public funding they can put any old crap on as we saw last night.
130 Tyson. Jack W’s ARSE is but a tool for the use of grateful PBers worldwide !!
Adam Bolton: “Might not know the result until after 11pm”
ARRGHHHH!!!!!
You may think that Jeremy Vine is a plonker, I could not possibly comment
113- some Labour (norwich) MP on 5 live earlier saying that Brown has until the conference- no change by then, he will be removed.
Open warfare in the Labour party. The parliamentary party know that they have a lame turkey PM who cannot turn this around.
Looking at the ward results in Newport Labour need the recounts to go their way overwhelmingly are they are fooked.
What kind of computerised counting machines are they using??!
ConHome claims following would lose their seats on (very unlikely, pigs might fly) repeat of last night in a GE
Ed Balls, Jacqui Smith, James Purnell, John Hutton, Caroline Flint, Ruth Kelly, John Denham
Yes perhaps to the rest but Ed Balls? Morris Dancer would combust with joy, bells & hankies flying if that were so.
(source conhome) incomplete but…
* Ealing & Hill - 48% counted, Boris about 50% Ken about 35%
* West Central - 42% counted, Boris about 60% Ken about 30%
* South West - 44% counted, Boris about 50% Ken about 35%
* Lambeth & Southwark - 46% counted, Boris about 30% Ken about 50%
* Croydon & Sutton - 43% counted, Boris about 50% Ken about 30%
* Merton & Wandsworth - 40% counted, Boris about 50% Ken about 35%
A rough application to the GLA figures would give Con 13, Lab 5, LD 4, Gr 2 and BNP 1
94 Only if you’ve not been listening ! (Sorry to gloat !)
Per post on ConHome - swing is 12.5% from Ken to Boris.
PC Paddick is on Sky news, hopefully he will now reveal who he voted for as a second preference, as he said he would.
142 - If Con take the Mayoralty and a majority on the GLA, it would be a brilliant election overall!
11pm??? What is this? Zimbabwe????
133 - The election is more complicated than a GE due to multi-member wards. Turnout in Wales has been reported as very high. Combine these factors and you get a slow count.
140 Rob D- Mugabe was kind enough to lend them to us.
148 - Was talking about mayor vote!
119 Confirmed for certain in the burb’s JW
If you counted the GLA results manually, it’d probably take three days.
149 - Hey Tyson!
Ah the ones that add up 1 + 1 to equal 40.. how generous of him!!
138 - “some Labour (norwich) MP on 5 live earlier saying that Brown has until the conference- no change by then, he will be removed.”
Has Charles Clarke had a liquid lunch? I would have thought it was too early for him but then again…
150 - Well not starting until 9am and the fact that the election is still more complicated than a GE (separating all the tripled up ballots will take ages) ergo slow count.
153 - It was Gibson not Clarke.
153 - I’m pretty sure that was Ian Gibson.
Songs of the Candidates, Voters & PBers
LONDON PRIDE
This classic was written by Noel Coward in the midst of the Blitz. Personally first heard it just after the London bus bombing, when Scott Simon of NPR played it on his great Saturday morning show, as his tribute to the great city and its great people.
So however you voted, and whomever you voted for, this one’s for you.
LONDON PRIDE
Noel Coward
London Pride has been handed down to us
London Pride is a flower that’s free
London Pride means our own dear town to us
And our pride is forever will be
Whoa, Liza, see the coster barrows
The vegetables and the fruit piled high
Oh, Liza, little London sparrows
Covent Garden Market where the costers cry
Cockney feet mark the beat of history
Every street pins a memory down
Nothing ever can quite replace
The grace of London Town
There’s a little city flower
Ever spring unveiling
Growing in the crevices
By some London railing
Though it has a Latin name
In town and countryside
We in England call it London Pride
London Pride has been handed down to us
London Pride is a flower that’s free
London Pride means our own dear town to us
And our pride it forever will be
Hey, lady, when the day is dawning
See the policeman yawning
On his lonely beat
Gay lady, Mayfair in the morning
Hear your footsteps echo
In the empty street
Early rain, and the pavement’s glistening
All Park Lane in a shimmering gown
Nothing ever could break or harm
The charm of London Town
In our city, darkened now,
Street and square and crescent
We can feel our living past
In our shadowed present
Ghosts beside our starlit Thames
Who lived and loved and died
Keep throughout the ages London Pride
London Pride has been handed down to us
London Pride is a flower that’s free
London Pride means our own dear town to us
And our pride it forever will be
Grey city, stubbornly implanted
Taken so for granted for a thousand years
Stay, city, smokily enchanted
Cradle of our memories, of our hopes and fears
Every blitz, your resistance toughening
From the Ritz to the Anchor and Crown
Nothing ever could override
The pride of London Town
135- are you going to get your ARSE down to Crewe? Andrea needs to see some proper culture
IF Boris does win on first preferences, it wont be lelande de pomerol tonight, itll be my only bottle of serious quality Margaux.
What a kick in the teth that would be for Ken and Gordon. I can imagine what Ken will be saying about the Dear Leader….
£10400 for BoJO at 1.02!
Where is Mark Senior?
Based on the Wilmslow Parish Women’s knitting circle tea lady byelections he was forecasting massive LabDem gains and poor Conservative results in London..as was his his Labdem chum Frottage or whatever his name is…
I trust this will be the last we here of irrelevant local parish byelections as guides to the National position.
If those results from CH are correct then it does look very close on Boris to win on first prefs alone. Big squeeze on the smaller parties vote since last time too. Very little reduction on Ken’s first prefs since 2004 - 50% in L&S has Ken’s vote actually up there on last time.
I’ve got money on the second preferences market - does anyone know if second prefs are even counted if it’s more than 50% on the first round?
SKY NEWS RESULTS so far:
Council / Seats
************
CON +9 +278
LAB -9 -382
LIB +0 +31
OTH +0 +73
(New Result: Denbighshire [NOC HOLD])
BBC Results: CON +243, LAB -297, LIB +24
(152 out of 159 councils declared)
162 - One would assume that they are counted simultaneously.
They should release them no matter what the outcome
63. Anthony King’s incisive analysis usually consists of something along the lines of -
Dimbleby : Tony, how serious would you say this is for Labour?
King : Oh, David, this is VERY serious.
The obvious step would be to replace him with John Curtice. As for Nick Robinson, the obvious step would be to replace him with just anybody, and allow him to find his spirtual home at a tabloid newspaper.
It may not be terribly important, but the thing that really leapt out at me last night was how small the set looked, even by normal BBC standards.
I know some people have been hankering after the style of coverage the American networks provide. I wouldn’t normally follow it too closely, but I have this year mainly because it suddenly dawned on me that my dual nationality entitled me to a vote! My principal observation would be that Britain definitely does not need a Wolf Blitzer. He’s even more of a broken record than Anthony King - “let me explain to our viewers…Campbell Brown is standing by for us…we’re watching this VERY closely”
157. I like London Pride. I shall have several tonight to celebrate/ drown my sorrows…
We won the Greenford Broadway by-election by 20 votes (having lost by 8 last time) - bit closer than we were expecting. Phew!
Can’t wait for Stalin’s article in the next Eye.
a topic for another day but I thought I’d share the tenor of a CNN discussion from last night here in the u.s. where they were openly discussing the possibility that obama might lose north Carolina ,killing his candidacy. They estimated he was 5% ahead but were talking about a serious fear of ‘white flight’ as a result of the wright affair.
Clinton looks Set to win Indiana.
Beware low flying Champagne corks ……………..
Back to Zone 6 for a right regal proper p**s up
TB
300 losses is beyond Labour’s own internal expectations by some margin.
This may get ugly.
This is the best Tory election since……??????
Radio 5 is still miles behind on the losses and gains.
Sea Shanty Irish. I have a question for you. A request. Do you have any idea what the re-election rate of mayors in major US cities is?
I am rather hoping Bozza gets it on first preferences. If you are gonna lose, lose big.
Get this Bozza winning first preferences. Total losses of 400. I cannot see how Brown can survive. Are we going to see a Kevin Keegan during the summer?
BTW, have there been any significant problems reported with the machines being used to to tabulate the vote in London?
Did see a previous post, that there was a problem with postal votes jamming up the equipment (am guessing because they were folded for mailing).
Reason I ask, is because King County (Seattle) Washington is planning on using the same scanning equipment for tabulating our election ballots, if and when the county adopts all vote-by-mail system next year.
Newport from their website:
Lab 19
Con 14
Ldem 6
PC 1
Ind 1
with 6 seats undeclared and another 3 being recounted. Lab need to win 7 of these 9 to retain control.
158 Tyson. Crewe Andrea ?!?! …. I thought it was Crewe Alexander !! …. or how about being part of Jack W’s Crew …. however I fear her indoors will be after a Jack W Cruise fairly soon. No excuse after todays winnings.