Sean Fear’s Friday Slot
May 9th, 2008
Local Election Round Up
Last week’s local elections were Labour’s worst since 1976/1977. The Party finished up 20% behind the Conservatives, in terms of projected national vote share, and suffered a net loss of 334 seats, from a low base. Taking into account some Labour gains, against the trend, the Party lost nearly one third of the seats it was defending. Some of the results were striking.
For instance, the Conservatives outpolled Labour by 1,800 across the ten authorities of Greater Manchester; they outpolled Labour in heartland seats like Penistone, Rother Valley, Wakefield, Labour since 1932, and Ed Ball’s Morley & Outwood; in Wales, Labour held just two out of twenty two local authorities, the same number as the Conservatives. Lest the Conservatives get carried away, however, they performed even better in Labour’s heartlands, in 1967-1969, and 1976-1978, but Labour still held these areas comfortably in subsequent general elections.
London saw the Conservatives’ greatest triumph, with Boris Johnson taking the Mayoralty with over a million votes. Paradoxically, it also witnessed Labour’s best performances of the day, with the Party pushing up its vote share in the London Assembly elections, retaining several constituencies with increased majorities, and taking Brent & Harrow from the Conservatives. However, the Conservatives still led Labour by 9% in the London Assembly constituency elections, enough to give the Conservatives a majority of London seats at the next election.
The Conservatives were successful in almost every part of the England and Wales, making a net gain of 257 seats and 12 councils. The party gained overall control of two Metropolitan Boroughs, Solihull and Bury, and an overall majority in a third, North Tyneside. They advanced strongly across the Midlands, Wales, and the North of England. In 2006 and 2007, the Conservatives performed strongly across much of England, but saw no real advance in the Metropolitan Boroughs. Not this time. The Conservatives made a net gain of 67 seats in the Metropolitan Boroughs, outpolling Labour across the former Metropolitan counties of West Midlands, Greater Manchester, and West Yorkshire. Boris Johnson’s victory in London was tremendous news for them, as was the party’s gain of two seats on the Assembly.
However, the Conservatives have still not matched their performances of the late 1970s in either London (where they led Labour by 15% in the GLC elections of 1977) or in the Metropolitan Boroughs, where they held a majority of councils by 1978. Elsewhere in England, however, their local government strength is probably greater than ever before.
The Liberal Democrats’ results were more mixed. The Party gained the great prize of Sheffield, effectively gained control of Oldham, and won Burnley for the first time. At the same time, they lost Liverpool, which they had held since 1998, although they subsequently retained control by persuading an independent to switch. They made a net gain of 33 seats, which, in the context of a strong Conservative advance, is a reasonable result. They were badly squeezed in London however, as Brian Paddick polled less than 10% of the vote, and they lost two seats on the London Assembly. There must be a risk that they will suffer in the same way if the next general election is a close contest between Conservatives and Labour.
Among the smaller parties, Plaid Cymru performed fairly well, making a net gain of 31 seats. However, it lost its stronghold of Gwynedd, and narrowly failed to take Ceredigion. The Greens performed very strongly in Norwich, becoming the official opposition, and retained two seats on the London Assembly, but made no real advance elsewhere. The BNP made a handful of council seat gains, and got onto the London Assembly, but must have hoped to do better in a year of extreme Labour unpopularity. UKIP also made a handful of council gains, but were completely wiped out on the London Assembly.
So where does this leave the two main parties? Relative to the Conservatives, Labour are in about the same position as they were in the late Seventies. They are stronger in London and the Metropolitan Boroughs, but weaker in the rest of England, particularly in the South. The Conservatives are weaker in the larger urban areas, and far weaker in Scotland than they were then, but much stronger in the rest of England, whose share of the population has grown over the past thirty years.
If history repeats itself, this points to a clear, but not overwhelming, Labour defeat at the next election, and suggest that spread markets which give the Conservatives a majority of 40 are about right.
There was just one by-election last night at Medway Unitary Council, Rochester South and Horsted. The result was Conservative 1847, Labour 819, Lib Dem 767, BNP 257, Green 104. An easy Conservative hold.
MessageSpace Advertising
“they outpolled Labour in heartland seats like Penistone, Rother Valley, Wakefield, Labour since 1932, and Ed Ball’s Morley & Outwood”
Could it be that my vote might actually count at the General Election?:D
1 - I have voted at every possible election since 1987. Last week was the first time that I have voted for a winning candidate.
Rother valley! Who would ever have thought it. Clearly the baleful legacy of coal mining is starting to fade.
2 - I am almost with you. Every ward I move out of subsequently votes Conservative and thus I always end up wasting my vote. However I do leave a streak of blue behind me.
Sadly it’s unlikely those results would be replicated at a GE - the thought of Ed Balls getting the boot is too good to think about!
you forgot southampton. the liberals lost the leader and all cllrs. labour lost there leader and what they consider safe seats. 15 out of 17 seats is not bad for the conservatives. it will be difficult to repeat these results in 2010 but fun in trying
6. Yes - the result of the night really. Horrifying for both Labour and their Lib Dem chums.
1 - Yes it could! Contact me on right_is_right@hotmail.com if you fancy helping out!!!!!
6 Yes, Southampton was surely the biggest shock of the night.
2 - Antifrank… does that mean you are a Tory? Morley and Outwood Conservatives are assembling a team to beat Balls. Could you contact me on right_is_right@hotmail.co.uk if you fancy helping out?
8 - Wrong email addy - it is right_is_right@hotmail.co.uk
5 - Don’t just hope for a change, help make it happen! If you want to help Morley and Outwood Conservatives ditch Balls then drop me an email - right_is_right@hotmail.co.uk
Thanks Sean - but you fail to mention the Tories lack of advance against the Lib Dems where they are dug in:
Cheltenham, Eastleigh, Solihull, Portsmouth, Winchester, Westmorland (where the Lib Dems polled 69%), Colchester plus Watford (inc Three Rivers) were among Tory targets that they made little or no impact.
The picture is more complex than that and a Tory majority is predicated on substantial gains from the Lib Dems which (outside London) there is little evidence for on last weeks results.
Sean , you neglect to say that the LibDems outpolled both Labour and the Conservatives in Penistone/Stocksbridge although they as always did not contest 2 of the wards .
Note the actual vote shares in last year’s local elections were Con 37 Lab 24.5 LibDem 23.5 Others 15 . Marquee Mark asked me earlier if the Conservatives would have reached the BBC notional 44% if all the shire districts had voted . The answer is no , the notional figures had Others at 7% whereas they actually polled 15% . It is the resistribution of the others vote that got them to 44% in the BBC notional figure .
11, hmm. I’d be tempted, but doorknocking and phoneline operating aren’t really my cup of tea (I hate phones and have all the patience of a bull elephant in mating season).
My mother got a call from Ed Balls’ staff, asking who she’d be most likely to vote for. She said Lib Dem, and then asked for her second preference, said Conservative (probably not, but she loathes Balls).
Seems like a mistake. If she’d've said Ed Balls she might’ve got a job with him and sabotage could’ve occurred:p
8/10/11/12 - Surely that’s enough spam
10 - Sorry, my message might have been misleading - I’m in London and I’m a fan of Boris.
I’m your actual floating voter. I have voted for all three main parties and have yet to decide who I’ll be supporting at the next election. I have the choice between incumbent Labour MP (Emily Thornberry) who I can’t support for as long as ID cards are on the table and who in any case would not look like a likely repository of my vote given what a shower the Government is at present, a Lib Dem who is less than 500 votes behind and a Tory who is 8000 off the pace. I regard the Lib Dems as a bit of a joke with no ideological consistency, but I am put off by the head-banging Eurosceptic stance that too many Tories have. So I’m yet to make up my mind, in short.
1 Ed Balls must be more valuable to the Conservatives in post and highly visible in the Cabinet.
If the Tories really get their prayers answered, Balls might get promoted.
18, I don’t want my MP to be Balls!
hope this comes out OK………
Political Balance of the LGA 2008
Following the May 2008 elections, the political balance of the LGA is as detailed below. The Conservative party is the largest party.
Table 1: Overall balance of the LGA
CON
LAB
LD
OTH
PC
Upper tier 43.0 30.5 20.8 5.3 0.4
Lower tier 44.1 25.6 21.4 8.4 0.4
Total (mixed) 43.6 28.1 21.1 6.9 0.4
Table 2: Proportions by Party within each Region
CON
LAB
LD
OTH
PC
North East 16.7 48.5 22.6 12.2 0.0
North West 29.5 41.4 24.6 4.6 0.0
Yorkshire and Humber 30.0 35.3 24.5 10.2 0.0
East Midlands 43.6 34.3 15.7 6.4 0.0
West Midlands 47.4 31.4 14.1 7.1 0.0
Eastern 59.9 16.6 18.6 4.9 0.0
London 40.8 38.2 16.9 4.1 0.0
South East 62.5 11.0 21.7 4.8 0.0
South West 48.8 10.6 32.9 7.7 0.0
Wales 14.3 29.0 15.4 26.0 15.3
Total 43.6 28.1 21.1 6.9 0.4
Table 3: Proportions between Regions for each Party
CON
LAB
LD
OTH
PC
Total
North East 1.9 8.6 5.3 8.8 0.0 5.0
North West 9.0 19.6 15.5 8.8 0.0 13.3
Yorkshire and Humber 6.7 12.2 11.3 14.5 0.0 9.7
East Midlands 8.5 10.4 6.3 7.9 0.0 8.5
West Midlands 11.3 11.6 6.9 10.8 0.0 10.4
Eastern 14.9 6.4 9.6 7.8 0.0 10.9
London 12.4 18.1 10.7 7.9 0.0 13.3
South East 22.9 6.3 16.4 11.1 0.0 15.9
South West 11.4 3.8 15.8 11.4 0.0 10.2
Wales 0.9 3.0 2.1 10.9 100.0 2.9
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Contact: Juliet Whitworth, 020-76643287, juliet.whitworth@lgar.local.gov.uk & Nick Shasha, 020 76643290, nick.shasha@lgar.local.gov.uk
Date: 9 May 2008
damn…………it didn’t, but hopefully it will be a little understandable.
have we had a constituency/ward breakdown of GLA figures yet?
15. I often wonder if I should say I’m undecided whenever canvassers come round, even when I’ve made my mind up. Then I could engage future canvassers of the party I wish to lose in lengthy conversations that stop them having time to reach as many houses.
13, Well, the Conservatives would have won 3 out of 5 Lib Dem seats in SW London on these figures, plus Hampstead & Kilburn (not Lib Dem but a top target). On last year’s figures, they’d have won several Lib Dem seats in the South West. We don’t really know how many Lib Dem MPs will hold on in a general election, on the basis of their personal following, if the Conservatives poll above 40%.
The results along the M4 in Wales were highly interesting. Labour going to 3rd in Cardiff dropping Newport etc. Any thoughts on Westminster implications Mr Fear
18. I genuinely believe if Balls got the top job the Liberal Democrats would overtake Labour.
22. Not yet.
23 Certainly.
26. Well there was no sign of that in last nights poll, or the london mayoral poll - was there?
25 Cardiff North is a gonner, and both Newport seats must be vulnerable if it’s a really bad year for Labour. The Tories seem to be heading for at least 7 seats in Wales, with several others very close.
I was going to make the point that Mark Senior made: Penistone was a seat where the Lib Dems finished first (as were three other Sheffield seats, one tied (with Labour) two with reduced Labour majorities).
I’d like to see a list of seats that the Liberal Democrats would have won from LAbour on the local government scores. My guess is that it includes Warrington South, a Derby seat, two at least in Hull and in Newcastle, Durham City and many more. Mark Senior probably has that list.
29 Ouch. So you think Clegg could be right on Newport East as well? On Cardiff what do you think about West and South as Labour took a real hammering from both Tories and Lib Dems.
30 The local rag had them winning all but 2 Sheffield seats.
The liberals prize the seat of Eastleigh and rightly so. what is intresting is what is happening around the seat. The loss of Romsey, looks every day more certain. In the two southampton wards that fall into romsey the liberals lost by 1273. Gidley has a majority of 125. in Southampton Itchen there share of the vote went down to 17% and in test they lost there leader in a seat they have held since 1983. they also got pushed into 4th in one seat.
28, I think there was actually. As is:
Labour 23
Lib Dem 17
With Balls Labour loses 10 points.
Thnaks Sean.
A great night for the Conservatives all in all. 
I think the local elections of 2009 are going to be the steller night for the Tories/Labours low point for this Parliament…. Could see some major Labour losses on the county councils.
Whats your suspicion on Crewe and Nantwich?
These elections were quite well suited to a Lib Dem defensive campaign. In the south I think they resigned themselves to making next to no gains and concentrated on entrenching support in their existing parliamentary seats. Last year when they had many districts to defend they didn’t fare nearly so well.
Personally, I suspect that the Lib Dem performance will be quite patchy with some surprising losses and some surprising gains. The overall trend will be down but if Labour are heading towards a catastrophic defeat then they may be able to offset most of the losses from gains from Labour.
33 You neglect to mention Winchester where the Oaten effect has worn off . In 2006 Conservatives led by 2,600 votes , last year by 700 votes , this year LibDems outpolled the Conservatives by 1,200 . the new Meon Valley seat does look safely Conservative though .
13. How dare Sean fail to regurgitate Lib Dem spin lines. What an appalling offence.
Sean is most impartial and tends not to regurgitate anyone’s spin , I’m sure he welcomed my factual comment re P/S .
39 Labour’s third place in Penistone makes it even worse for them, although I don’t actually doubt they’ll hold it in the general election.
Does anyone have a view on the Newport and Swansea parliamentary seats? I can never remember which way round it is, but the Lib Dems and the Tories are supposed to be on the up in Newport East and West (or West and East) and Labour is supposed to be on the slide in Swansea West (or is it East?)
34. But as fast as Labour are falling, so are the Lib Dems.
Labour have lost roughly one third of their support compared to their 2005 GE figure of 36%; Lib Dems have lost about a fifth of theirs, from 22.3% to a miserly 17% last night.
If they are seriously expecting to overtake Labour you would expect them to have been the beneficiaries of dissatisfaction with Labour and they haven’t.
The last time Labour were at this level of support the Lib SDP alliance was already ahead of them.
Can any of the constitutional experts on the site answer me this:
How big a prize for a party is a seat on a council or the council itself? What powers do Councillors have?
Sean
Good analysis but you are understating Plaid. We matched our best ever performance in terms of councillors elected across Wales.
Our net gains are the same as the LIb dems managed in the whole of England and Wales…and we dont stand in England…
We are not in denial about what happend in gwynedd but given the circumstances and the length of time in power…being massively the largest party is a good result.
We also had some very useful break through results in Wrexham and Torfaen and picked up more councillors in Cardiff and Newport…We seem to have stood up to the Tory tide in other places.
Not bad at all given its our first year in government.
The Tories seem to be the main beneficiaries from Labour’s meltdown in Scotland thus far. Here is the Scottish sub-sample from the latest YouGov/Sun poll:
Scottish Westminster voting intention
fieldwork: 7-8 May 2008
sample size: 144
(% change from UK GE 2005)
1. SNP 32% (+14%)
2. Lab 26% (-13%)
3. Con 21% (+5%)
4. LD 13% (-10%)
5. BNP 3% (+3%)
6. Grn 2% (+1%)
oth 3%
Electoral Calculus seats calculator:
1. SNP 23 seats (+17 seats)
2. Lab 20 seats (-20 seats)
3. LD 8 seats (-3 seats)
4. Con 7 seats (+6 seats)
5. Speaker (Michael Martin) 1 seat (n/c)
Seats changing:
Scottish National Party gains from Labour:
- Aberdeen North (Frank Doran)
- Aberdeen South (Anne Begg)
- Ayrshire North & Arran (Katy Clark)
- Dundee West (Jim McGovern)
- East Lothian (Anne Picking)
- Edinburgh East (Gavin Strang - retiring?)
- Edinburgh North & Leith (Mark Lazarowicz)
- Glasgow North (Ann McKechin)
- Kilmarnock & Loudoun (Des Browne)
- Lanark & Hamilton East (Jimmy Hood)
- Linlithgow & East Falkirk (Michael Connarty)
- Midlothian (David Hamilton)
- Ochil & South Perthshire (Gordon Banks)
- Paisley & Renfrewshire North (Jim Sheridan)
Scottish National Party gains from Liberal Democrats:
- Argyll & Bute (Alan Reid)
- Dunfermline & West Fife (Willie Rennie)
- Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey (Danny Alexander)
Conservative gains from Labour:
- Dumfries & Galloway (Russell Brown)
- Edinburgh South (Nigel Griffiths)
- Edinburgh South West (Alistair Darling)
- Renfrewshire East (Jim Murphy)
- Stirling (Anne McGuire)
Conservative gains from Liberal Democrats:
- Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk (Michael Moore)
http://www.yougov.com/archives/pdf/sun%20results%20080508.pdf
Mr Fear, Good article as per usual except for the ‘downplaying’ of the Patriots’ excellent results. To give our phenomenal performance a short sentence amongst the also-rans of UKIP and the Greens is poor form.
The Patriots won seats all over the country and, more importantly, scored an exceptionally high percentage of votes in dozens of Cities and Towns.
Good to see today that Richard the Lionheart was tackling the old-gang parties inside the Assembly and the Marxist rabble outside.
Other politicians thoughts on the Patriots election performance…..
“At last. It’s taken a long time, but a Labour politician has finally admitted his party has taken the people of Stoke for granted.
“It wasn’t, of course, one of Labour’s defeated councillors, who appeared to be blaming everyone but themselves (and especially Mark Meredith and Gordon Brown) for their ejection from office. It was Stoke Central MP Mark Fisher, who also praised the BNP as ‘good local candidates who’ve worked harder than Labour’.”
********************************
Clwyd South MP Martyn Jones claimed an “educated debate” now needed to take place in order to tackle the issue.
He said: “I am deeply concerned at the results for the BNP displayed in Wrexham last week. The fact that four of the five BNP candidates were able to stroll to victory unopposed is a stain on all political parties for failing to be awake to the reality of the situation, and for failing to put forward enough candidates accordingly.”
********************************
Mr Brown faced further criticism from John Mann, MP for Bassetlaw, as he released analysis which showed that the BNP polled more votes than Labour in Ed Balls’s constituency in West Yorkshire. Calling for a return to bread-and-butter issues, he said: “Nobody in the North of England, and I suspect none in the South, gives a damn about which world leaders Gordon Brown or David Cameron hobnob with. They want clear, uncomplicated leadership, prioritising their fears, aspirations and every day realities.”
*******************************
While the results of the recent elections in London and around the country were excellent for the Conservatives, the success of the BNP in certain areas - relatively small but significant - leaves a sour taste. - Councillor Brian Gordon, Conservative
******************************
45 - is it really safe to read anything into a sample size of 144? Surely the statistical significance is too vague to draw any detailed conclusions at all?
46
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
44. Are Plaid Cymru members as fervently for independence as the SNP?
Latest Gallup Presidential and Primary Trackers :
McCain 44% .. Clinton 48%
McCain 45% .. Obama 46%
Clinton 46% .. Obama 48%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/107176/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Yet-Pulling-Away.aspx
Like the SNP, it depends which ones you talk to.
46 - “To give our phenomenal performance a short sentence amongst the also-rans of UKIP and the Greens is poor form.”
I dont usually rise to the bait but, Emily dearest, do come back to us when the BNP matches any, or all of, the Green Party number of Councillors (real ones), London Assembly members, Northern Ireland Assembly members, Scottish Parliament members or MEPs. Then you might be able to call them “also rans” with a straight face.
44 Overall, I think Plaid did pretty well.
52 Last year, the BNP and Greens achieved a similar number of votes, overall. Does anyone know what their respective votes were this year?
Re 46. Emily - your email address bounces back. It is a condition of posting here that you provide a valid email address. This will not be published but is necessary should I need to get in touch with you.
You will be on automatic moderation until you can clear this up.
42 Marcus , the detailed data from Populus/Comres and ICM does not bear out what you are saying . That from this week’s Populus poll shows a net movement from Labour to LibDem of 13 voters and from LibDem to Conservative of 15 voters . It is a great shame that Yougov do not publish similar data .
54 - I’m afraid I dont have the figures myself though I could drop an email to someone who will have them (the Green ones anyway) and let you know if I hear back. My feeling is that this year wasnt the strongest of the local election cycle for the Greens (because of the councils fought and not fought rather than because the number of gains was disappointingly low).
54 Have not got the final totals yet but BNP polled around 50% more votes than the Greens in English locals .
58 Thanks. Does that include the figures for the London Assembly elections?
46
relatively small but significant - leaves a sour taste. - Councillor Brian Gordon, Conservative
It is politics he’s talking about I hope!!
45. Stuart, don’t waste your time.
The MOE is 7.6%.
Ergo, the analysis is worthless…
New ARG Primary Poll for West Virginia :
Clinton 66% .. Obama 23%
http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/wvdem8-702.html
Apologies if this has already been posted etc…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6Lstkiexhc
Sean , no , London Assembly elections not included .
Teddy Kennedy indicates that Hillary shouldn’t be Obama’s Veep choice :
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0508/Kennedy_No_veep_slot_for_Clinton.html
NB - YouTube link at 63 contains bad language for any who may be offended
A week after the results and Sean Fear sheds new light on the results. Well done.
Could we also be in for a many more weeks of bad news for Labour?
42 days
C&N by election
Revelations on Livingstone’s waste
10p disarray
Bendy Wendy Vs the Great Ditherer
etc etc
56 Mark - Sean Fear is a relatively straight poster without or very little pro-Tory spin……..usually.
To say the LDs results were mixed betrays a slight pro-Tory bias. We lost 2 Councils - both through their own faults. Most of Pendle had no leaflets or other campaigning from May 07 to Feb 08. Methinks m’Lord Greaves needs to sort them out. West Lindsey lost because the Tories rightly pulled out of election deals with us.
To gain St Albans in the national circumstances is superb. 10 wards fought. 10 wards won. Sandy Walkington is a good guy. Burnley and Sheffield are excellent results. Can’t remember the other Council gain.
Marcus is a pale imitation of my ole mate Rik. Marcus is so pro-Tory partisan it’s not worth responding to
Interesting analysis, Stuart, of the Scottish situation. From what I’ve been reading, Ms Goldie is proving quite a capable leader of the Scottish Tories - certainly in comparison to Wendybaby.
21% is - given recent history - quite a heartening poll result for Scots Tories (and Unionists). And maybe it proves my point, that Cameron is not quite such kryptonite in Scotland as the SNP and Labour both presume.
Historically, this makes sense. Scotland was Tory in the not-so-distant past. Thatcher blew that, for sure. But the penchant for proper one nation Toryism must still be there, lurking in the pragmatic and sensible Scots character. And it is surely unsatisfied by the three alternative left-of-centre parties jostling in Holyrood.
I think if the Tories can do some bold thinking on the constitution (Federalism? More power to Scotland in a looser UK?) they could work with the Nats, get more seats north of the border, and save the Union to boot. Not a bad day’s work.
68. More pathetic excuses. Now Lib Dem losses don’t count if it’s the councils’ ‘own faults’, i.e. their campaigning was bad (or perhaps their records!)
Whatever next? Will losses not count on the grounds that other parties polled more votes?
68 - you would surely acknowledge that the London results were abysmal for the Lib Dems? It was in that context that Sean Fear used the word “mixed”, and it seemed to me admirably balanced.
25, 31, etc Wales
Labour are in big trouble in Wales, but to different oposition depending on where you are. At the moment I would expect Plaid to hold their current seats, hold/win Arfon (boundary change from notional Lab), win Ceredigion (from LD), win Ynys Mon (from Lab) and possibly win Llanelli (from Lab) - making 6 or 7 seats - our best performance ever.
Conservatives would do very well, winning Cardiff North, Vale of Glamorgan, Vale of Clwyd, Aberconwy (all from Labour), and Brecon and Montgomeryshire (both LD). Possible gains in Gower, Clwyd South, Newport West, CWSP (all from Lab). Could end up with 10 to 13 seats.
LDs will pick up votes and possibly seats in Newport East, Wrexham, Swansea West, but at the same time losing 3 seats to Plaid & Conservatives, so will finish on 3-4.
Peoples Voice will hold Blaenau Gwent, and Labour could be in big trouble in neighbouring Torfaen, Merthyr & Islwyn - but much will depend how the PV/Independent councillors in these areas turn out. Probably remain at 1 seat.
Labour in full meltdown at the moment losing 12-15 seats but will still finish with 15 - 18 seats (if my maths is right).
I dont think Labour will be in much trouble in its 3 other Cardiff seats simply because of the split opposition (Con & LD in North and South - also add in Plaid in West).
Turbulent times ahead…….
46 Emily, somehow these words seem apt.
“Emily tries but misunderstands, ah ooh
She’s often inclined to borrow somebody’s dreams till tomorrow
There is no other day
Let’s try it another way
You’ll lose your mind and play
Free games for May
See Emily play ”
(Pink Floyd)
68 Mr Big. You leave Marcus “I’m a Lady” Wood alone …. he’s not a “pale imitation” of anything !!
http://i84.photobucket.com/albums/k7/freya_baska/Emily_Howard.jpg
69. The margin of error in those results means you can’t draw any conclusions from it.
Re:52 - Neil, I was commenting on UKIP & Greens mediocre/poor election performance. Not their overall political position.
Re:48 - Maggie Thatcher Fan, Well done. You’ve contributed an enormous amount to this thread!
41 It’s Newport West for the Tories and Newport East for Lib Dems. In West the Tories really went well picking up seats in Malpas etc. If Labour are really under the cosh then as Mr Fear says watch this go blue. Newport East the Lib Dems continue to do well but it’d be real meltdown if that went even after the Assembly result. For that reason Swansea West (Swansea East has a 30% Majority) is far more likely to go yellow. They not only did better than expected in Swansea but it is more studenty and it’s MP since 1964 the Father of the House Alan Williams is retiring.
68
Marcus is so pro-Tory partisan it’s not worth responding to
Errr being a Tory PPC you wouldn’t expect anything else really!
When it comes to GE Scottish voters,adept at tactical voting voters are more interested in who came second in GE rather than local elections.
Is there an ICM poll for S telegraph this weekend?
rogerh
72 ‘and Labour could be in big trouble in neighbouring Torfaen, Merthyr & Islwyn’ - Merthyr I can see after last year to the Lib Dems but the other two? Love to see your thinking.
Wrexham - LD’s did Ok but not as Ok in Newport East. It’s a long shot but why the confidence.
I dont think Labour will be in much trouble in its 3 other Cardiff seats simply because of the split opposition (Con & LD in North and South - also add in Plaid in West). - Err I think you mean ‘2′ other seats. Cardiff North is so Tory next time I think 5,000+ majority. As for the others. South true the Tories did very well in the Vale bit and will do well in General Election. But Labour also took a pasting in the South this time from the LDs. All three could be quite close together..
West here there is no split opposition at least at Westminster level. The Tories did far better than Plaid and while Plaid will challenge in 2011 come 2010 it will be the Tories breathing down Brennan’s neck.
68 - They weren’t good but I’m happy to swap 3rd in London for the results we had in about 30 key seats e.g. Tories losing their deposit at the next GE in Watford ?
70 I didn’t say it didn’t count. I’m just saying why it happened. Any Tory fancy a bet on Nick Clegg’s seat ? I’ll bet £50 for your £10.
77 Precisely my point
79 - I hope that Kevin Brennan survives. Of the politicians that I have met, he struck me as one of the nicest and most able. Labour’s recovery will be founded on people like him.
70 - ANd the Tories falling apart in South Lakeland.
London wasnt good for the LDs. However, they still only lost 2 people.
Penddu: The LDs lose Montgomery? HAHA. Nice try.
80 - I’m interested in the trade-off you make - there are a fair few Lib Dem/Labour marginal seats in London, I would have thought those would be of considerable interest.
And if you really think the Tories will in practice lose their deposit at the next general election in Watford, you ought to share with the board the substances you’ve been taking.
LDs lose Montgomery ? Lembit is more careful than Emlyn Hooson. He’s also reallyw ell liked in the area. Lose. Fat chance :-):-):-):-):-):-):-):-):-)
My latest rants against the creeping danger (or endangering creep?) of extreme Cornish nationalism have not seen the light of day on PB.
Chance? Coincidence? Conspiracy?
85 Lembit claims to be Estonian Welsh. But could it be, as highly-placed Balts allege, that he is really Latvian Cornish?
Would explain a great deal.
84 - London Mayor/Assembly results for LDs never reflected in subsequent GEs.
Watford - I submit to the board evidence that will ensure the Tories get evry close to deposit losing level in Watford. What that evidence is will remain confidential until the next GE is announced
87 - He doesn’t claim that. He does claim to be Estonian/Northern Irish which he is given that his aprents were born in Estonia and he was born in NI.
WEST VIRGINIA PRIMARY
“West Virginia Primary - Obama +20.5 Percent” : if back this, does it mean I win if Obama lose by more than 20,5% of the popular vote?
I sometimes think it would be fun if an unpopular government were defeated in a landslide in a general election, but with huge numbers of people systematically and deliberately lying to the opinion polls in the camapaign beforehand - just to make it come as a bigger shock for the defeated losers. A bit like a 1987 campaign and a 1997 result.
DNC Superdelegate Ed Esponoza endorses Obama :
http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/blog/samgrahamfelsen
I believe you win if he wins by more than +20.5%
87 - he actually claims to be Estonian Northern Irish.
I am not sure of Lembit’s predecessor’s origins. Alex Carlile unusually took his wife’s surname on marriage. He was born Alex Falik. Who can blame him for changing his name?
69 - 21% may be heartening but out of a sample of 144 people it is just 30 voters !!!
91 More like the 1992 GE. Everyone thought Major would lose until the Exit Polls. Thought absed on opinion polls.
93
Impossible: Obama is a huge underdog in WV.
94 - They fled Stalin. See Lembit’s biog on ld web site.
Falik - if true, Id on’t blame him either
97 He is. That’s why you shouldn’t back him at +20.5%.
I assume +20.5% means a position that Obama wins by 20.5%.
Mike - is that right ?
94 - Carlile is Polish Jewish by origin. I hope the Tory candidate is of suitably interesting rootstock if he hope to take Montgomeryshire by storm. Might I suggest an East German Sorbian, or a Magyar Slovak?
Jack at 92, have you heard about another from California, Watkins endorsing Obama. Believe its right, that makes 5 today.
Looks as if the Obama camp is trying to get a super delegate lead by Monday to undercut any Clinton hysteria from West Virginia.
Re Kentucky the blogs are talking of some Clinton supporters saying they will not bother to vote in that primary as thje contest is really all over.
No, Obama+20.5% means you win if he loses by less than 20.5%, or he wins.
100
Impossible: Obama is a huge underdog in WV. Come on!
There are two opposite options here:
– Obama +20.5 Percent
– Clinton -20-.5 Percent
103
Thank you
98 - bloody hell! I didn’t know Stalin ever made it to Ulster!
Just come back from Crewe, looks more than okay for the Conservatives. Labour campaign not really going yet, may hit over the weekend. Liberal Democrats doing their usual but they have a mountain to climb.
Didn’t see the beauty queen, that really spoilt my day. People know she is standing.
OT: just listening on the iPlayer to the Feedback programme. The clips are pretty blatant evidence of Humphrey’s anti-Tory/pro-Labour bias.
No clips of Cleggy though.
103
So this : Clinton -30.5 Percent
means I win if Clinton wins by more than 30,5 points
Coffee-house is teasing.
Promising a good political story…. big, followable and with us by midnight.
102 dave(s). Which Watkins is that ? …. if memory serves there’s already one from California endorsing Obama.
82. Probably something to do with the Tory organisation not existing, if it was a school, the local association would be in ’special measures’.
Here down West noticeable how low key lib Dems are.Plaid not doing much better.
Tories making all the running, as they have done for last 3 years.
Me thinks I am about the only Lab left in Pembs.(Don’t turn out the lights just yet)
Sean has an excellent processor. However, with the best processor, if you put garbage in, you get garbage out.
As far as the Lib Dems are concerned, the last two elections a reduction of their overall vote was accompanied by an INCREASE (quite significant) in seats. While one cannot guarantee the same will happen again (there will always be some ‘churn’) I cannot see that there is evidence to the contrary, even if you look at the most recent results in the important seats concerned. While Cameron’s crew were racking up boggling majorities in all sorts of seats where it made no difference, some of the key Lib Dem ‘targets’ saw Lib Dems not only holding their ground against Tories but even make gains. So in Sefton Central, Lib Dems won 4 seats to Tories 3 with a seventeen per cent swing to them to gain the Manor Ward of Sefton MBC (home of Tory parliamentary candidate Debi Jones. Lib Dems also made continued major advances in Oldham East & saddleworth and Warrington South . There is not a single presently held Lib Dem seat in the North West where the Tories are seen as advancing anything like what is needed to win the parliamentary seat. in some they continue to recede. This is not to say the Tories may not make signficent gains in the NW region - Bury, South Ribble, Pendle and West Lancs seats all seem to have clear potential for them.
CONSERVATISM RISING IN THE UK, FALLING IN USA
“Today, British conservatives are on the way up, while American conservatives are on the way down. British conservatives have moved beyond Thatcherism, while American conservatives pine for another Reagan. The British Conservative Party enjoyed a series of stunning victories in local elections last week, while polls show American voters thoroughly rejecting the Republican brand.
The flow of ideas has changed direction. It used to be that American conservatives shaped British political thinking. Now the influence is going the other way.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/09/opinion/09brooks.html?_r=1&ref=opinion&oref=slogin
108 - “Humphrey’s anti-Tory/pro-Labour bias”
Do you mean John “Daily Mail rant” Humphry’s? Pro-Labour, my arse!
excuse unnecessary apostrophe
Any Questions tonight Jonathan Dimbleby has just announced that Charles Kennedy for “one reason or another” missed the train in Euston. They then tried to arrange for him to do the programme via a phone link, but he failed to show up.
A touch of the auld problem perhaps…
The Lib Dems’ results in these elections were very poor. In the highest profile contest, they were squeezed to a pathetic vote share of less than 10% on first preferences.
Outside London, their performance was flattered by the astonishing scale of Labour’s collapse. They should have taken far more seats off Labour they did. A couple of smash and grab surprise wins can’t obscure the big picture - the Lib Dems are retreating to a scattered handful of heavily defended redoubts. They are heading back to the margins of British politics.
Just back from C&N with a return in the morning. Seems that the Tories are trying to match the volume quotient of other parties in terms of leaflets but the distribution - from what I hear - is operating at c 85%-90% compared with the LD input. Perhaps there are areas that the Tories feel are not quite as fruitful as others. There is - not surprisingly - a sense that Labour is going through the motions. I wonder whether a collapse in Labour allows an anti Tory focus to develop into a LD momentum/challenge against the Tories. Will update tomorrow upon my return to the odd glass of rouge.
In an election that really mattered with a higher turn out..i.e. the top job in London, LD massively squeezed and I am sure the same thing will happen in the GE..they may at a push win a few northern seats from Labour I suppose but most people wont be interested in a side show.
It will be the main Lab/Con battle in 2010 and many in the North who voted LD last week will return to Labour or will vote tactically for their Con candidate to get Labour out, excatly what happened in London.
I can see why the LD want to take comfort from a few low turnout holds in the South but if the anti-Tory tactical vote unwinds (and London shows that it probably is)then there will be significant LD net-losses in the GE.
117 SBS. We’ll also excuse your unnecessary arse !!
119 That retreat must explain why those famous celtic fringe areas of Hull, Newcastle, Burnley, Sheffield and St Albans, Three Rivers, and Watford all have Liberal Democrat councils.
Humphreys is anti-anyone who appears on the BBC. It’s his interpretation of BBC neutrality.
His newspaper columns suggest he’s a small c conservative.
90. I believe its a handicap, ie add 20.5% to his actual vote tally and if that puts him ahead of Clintons total peercentage you win your bet at the odds set.
Thats what I’m guessing it is. If you could point me to the maerket I can confirm.
101 for some crazy reason the tories have selected a Welshman for Montgomeryshire
122- there is only one ARSE on pbCOM
126 kingbongo. Terrible strategic error !!
127 Tyson. Modesty forbids ….
…………………..
Meanwhile…. McCain confuses in Michigan !!
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/is_mccain_trying_to_lose_michi.html
field just said that if the compensation package is not acceptable “it will have serious consequences for his premiership”
oh my God! The LDs on this site are so out of it - small minded nd pathetic … Gladstone is gone! get over yourselves; get real…
121. Exactly. The next GE is going to be seen by the voters as a ’straight choice’ between discredited, shambolic Labour and the Tories. The Lib Dems will struggle to get any attention at all against the background of such a narrative, and their vote will dive sharply.
125
http://sports.betfair.com/?mi=20995326&rfr=400&ex=1
So the other guy (103)was wrong, then:
I don’t win if Obama loses by more than X%, I win if Obama’s % of the votes+X%>Clinton’s % of the vote?
re 110. I wonder if the big story that is about to break is about Charles Kennedy who should have been on Any Question just now. See Chris’s comment at 118.
127 Lembit has been mentioned repeatedly on this pb.com thread, and he is clearly an arse.
Re 133. see http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/693371/story-alert.thtml
Any questions getting very testy. i really think that brown is finished within weeks. field is being very combative. frank slaying thetax credit system
128> Jack could you seriously do a favour and post articles, not just polls, that also dont favour your pick?
At the end of the day you posting all this on here makes not a jot of difference other than making you and anyone investing or supporting Obama feel better. Whilst I understand it as severe case of cognitive dissonance it doesnt add anything to the betting debate in an area where there was good and probably is good money to be made.
Thanks
131 usual gibberish from you yp , the results last week were very much a deadheat between the Conservatives and LibDems for every Southampton there was a Colchester . The London Assembly results will have as little relevance to the next GE as the previous two did .
I’ve backed Labour to win C&N on Betfair at the seemingly generous odds of 3.3/1 (currently 3.1/1). I’ve yet to see any convincing evidence that the Tories will prevail, although the first hand accounts posted here suggest that they have a very good chance. I feel that in what is effectively a two horse race, it’s likely to be quite close and the odds simply don’t reflect this, with Labour’s price currently about six times that of the Tories.
133 Mike S. Oh my God !! Charlie surely isn’t er .. er .. sober
138 Now I have seen everything - last week was a dead heat for LDs and Cons … yeah right.. send me some of that stuff ur taking m8!
132. Let me look and see but it looks like a standard handicap style bet just that on Betfair obviously you can lay the thing as well.
142
Thank you very much
134 Many people om here considered Boris a arse didn’t stop him winning
139) Peter from Putney
I’ve taken all that was there on Betfair @4. I have a decimal 4 average on about £550 - just seems like value as you say in a close race. There is little precedent for modelling a “mother dies daughter takes over” situation in a Northern town despite the tories riding high in the polls - Perhaps the correct odds should be? What do you think?
138. I understand your frustration. It must be depressing looking at the local election maps with your magnifying glass, trying desperately to identify the odd remaining speck of orange in a sea of blue.
141 66 Conservative gains from LibDem 48 LibDem gains from Conservative looks pretty even to me
134 Gwynfa. Ah yes, but the public love a good arse !!
137 Yokel. I post what I feel is relevant to the race and the odds …. I’ve consistently posted ALL polls good and bad for Obama……and a few other tit bits beside.
And as far as Obama is concerned I’ve been proved correct.
If you don’t like my posts just skip them. I’m sure others do.
139 - Labour voters will stay at home, so Conservatives really won’t need that much of a swing.
147. Yes, and 257 net gains to 33 looks even more balanced. Still, if you take away all the places the Tories gained, they actually lost seats.
How long ago was it that we had a bad story for the Tories, i mean a real bad one, that runs? It seems ages… The whole Conway thing, I think the Conservatives got away with because Cameron and the party in general distanced themselves from him, and persuaded him to not seek re-election
How long can it last?
143. Yep it is as I thought. Who will still win once the handicap is applied.
ie Obama with +20.5% you can bet him to be ahead when you add that to his total, or lay it.
Same with Clinton - 20.5%, you can bet she’d still win it minus that 20.5% off her actual total or lay it.
110, 133. Surely by definition a big political story that breaks late on a Friday night is going to be a personal story rather than a truly “political” one: it’ll be someone’s private life, or maybe (at a stretch) another party financing scandal, rather than something that will break the government.
£ 800 just bet on Labour to win C and N on Betfair at 4
149) Alex when Labour voters in Labour areas in London were staring down the barrel of a Boris Johnson victory (as the C&N voters will be staring down the barrel of the prospect of a Tory MP for the first time in 20+ years) do you think they might also turnout? If not why not?
121 - which lib dems are at risk in London - Susan Kramer and perhaps Ed Davey would be on my list
Vince cable a bridge too far - teather ? which others are at risk - i think a lot will go with a high turnout squeeze
The importance of the Conservatives winning London can’t be overstated IMO. People have forgotten what it’s like to see a dominant and seemingly competent Conservative administration. If Boris can even go half way to pulling it off what on earth are Labour going to campaign on at the next election?
153. A defection perhaps? Or another defecation?
155 - Because London mattered, and there was genuine support for Ken.
C&N doesn’t and there isn’t genuine support for Gordon. There will be many Labour supporters who may see C&N as an opportunity to see him go.
Sorry that should have read;
149) Alex when Labour voters in Labour areas in London were staring down the barrel of a Boris Johnson victory (as the C&N voters will be staring down the barrel of the prospect of a Tory MP for the first time in 20+ years) they turned out in record numbers. Do you think the C&N Labour and anti-tory voters might also turnout? If not why not? And if you disagree - are you really so sure that backing Labour at 4s is bad value?
158 - Charles Kennedy to defect? Now that would be a story!
156 - Can’t see how Kramer can survive, personally.
159) Doesn’t Crewe and Nantwich matter to the people of Crewe & Nantwich? You might think they are unimportant but are you sure they do?
Marc Ambinder reports three more SD’s for Obama :
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/05/three_more_superdelegates.php
148.
Yes youve posted the polls and SD’s which are facts as they are stated but articles of opinion youve posted have been pretty much all one way.
Youve been correct that he’s on for the nomination and the presidency but the state by states havent been always accurate. Thats no sin as predictions do go awry, but to pretend you arent running a bias is frankly bullshit.
Of course I cant stop you just merely putting in the request. Don’t, however, try to pull that line on me, you arent smart enough to pull it and I’m not stupid to accept it.
No sale.
79 Jumbling up my Cardiff seats - North is a sitter for Conservatives (already held by them at WA) - Central is an easy hold for LD (their only easy hold in Wales!) - South has mixed Conservative & LD opposition which will let Labour hang on this time - West has Conservative, LD & Plaid which again will let Labour off - at least for now - I could see this going to Plaid in the WA in a few years - the Pontcanna Cracaich see…