Do we want even more regular YouGov polls?
May 9th, 2008
Has the Sun switched from MORI following the Mayoral outcome?
A key thing that polling does, apart from to give some idea about the outcome of a future general election, is to help create the environment in which the political process operates. As we have seen so often the pressure on party leaders can be driven by poor polling numbers.
For there’s little doubt that shocking polls for Labour, like the one in this morning’s Sun, can affect the whole way that contemporary politics is perceived and one set of bad numbers can lead to another.
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Given that at the moment the YouGov methodology seems to be producing the worst results for Labour the last thing that Gord needs is for more regular surveys from the firm.
But judging from the Sun’s report of its poll this morning it looks as though the top-selling tabloid newspaper might have switched to YouGov. The report notes that the paper “…chose YouGov after they accurately predicted the results of last week’s London Mayoral election.”
For the last couple of years or so the polls the paper has carried out, almost on a monthly basis, have been by MORI. Now if today’s development means that future Sun surveys will be by YouGov then there could be a pattern of at least three a month from the online pollster. YouGov, of course, already does regular surveys for the Daily Telegraph and the Sunday Times.
I’m not sure whether this is a good thing - different approaches by different firms can give us a clearer picture and help us to understand better what is going on.
More YouGov polls could also affect the betting - particularly the spread markets on the number of seats that the main parties will get at the next general election. Market movements tend to be drive by the latest polling numbers and, not unexpectedly, the Tory spreads have moved upwards overnight.
The Conservative seat price on Spreadfair is now at 343-347 seats - the lower figure being the sell level and the higher one the buy level. Profits and losses in this form of betting are determined by working out the difference between the contract level and multiplying by your stake amount. So if you sold the Tories at 343 seats at £50 a seat and Cameron’s party ended with 373 seats then you would lose 30 times 50 = £1,500. On the other hand if they only got 323 seats you would win 20 times 50 = £1,000.
With this firm the prices are set by what other punters want to offer. The other spread firms fix the levels themselves and both of them have been down overnight. Expect a new price fix this morning.
Mike Smithson
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(OT) OMRLP Deputy Leader Peter “Top Cat” Owen a.k.a. Bananaman(usually Wokingham) has been selected as prospective candidate for the Henley by-election. (I’m not sure if he knows it hasn’t definitely become vacant yet). He got the highest Loony vote in the country in the 1997 and 2001 general elections.
1 - sounds like a careerist to me.
Loonyism has become part of the political establishment. Only hope now is the Edible Ballot Society . . .
1 - indeed, am hearing disturbing rumours that OFRML candidate in Crewe & Nantwich, The Flying Brick, is in the pockets of the building trade . . .
The only Looneys I know are in the three main Tory Parties; although I did meet Screaming Lord David Such once and he seemed a really nice guy.
Malcolm
Last night on Betfair I took 2.08 a CON Overall ‘via the backdoor’.That is to say I laid all the other options.
The last traded price was 1.90 but not much excitement on BF.
Spreadfair seems to be down this morning.
1. No doubt Bananaman will accuse Obama of being a top cat copy cat.
Conspiracy? Coincidence? Cockamamie?
“Ms Goldie said: “When asked whether he backed Wendy Alexander, Gordon Brown instead hung her out to dry.
“She made it clear she wanted a quick referendum. He said nothing must happen until the Calman Commission has reported and its findings are fully considered.
“Since that takes us to the autumn of 2009 at the earliest, Gordon Brown has just delivered a massive vote of no confidence in Wendy Alexander.”
North East Tory MSP Alex Johnston said: “Wendy’s U-turn at the weekend has now turned into a double somersault.
“Wendy is out of control and her actions are inconsistent, change from one day to the next and seriously endanger the Union.””
‘Wendy defiant in referendum row’
http://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/Article.aspx/628737
WOW! McCAIN
… is a crazy son of a gun : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RGWakF5XgYM
I foresee only one problem with the rise of YouGov and that is that whilst it has been a pretty good opinion poller of late, the first time it gets it spectacularly wrong will provoke a serious backlash. Personally I think The Sun are using the Mayoral election as a convenient puff to a decision they probably took ages ago to change pollsters. I find it hard to believe that a newspaper that probably has a long term arrangement with its pollster can extricate itself from one firm and engage another and get a first poll from them inside of a week.
Apologies if this has already been said, but in the London mayoral election 41,032 papers were rejected; 1.7% of the votes cast.
Lucky it wasnt closer!
I suspect the design of the paper was responsible for a substantial part of this unacceptably high figure. When are the Electoral Commission going to take full responsibility for elections?
As the reply to an email I sent to the EC said:
“The Commission does not have responsibility for the running of UK elections; we monitor how they are run and are required to report on them. We had observers in place at polling stations around London and at the three central counting locations. Their accounts, along with the feedback and response we get from the public will inform the post-election reports we publish and our evaluation of how well the election was conducted.”
My italics (I hope) - Without actual power to do anything they are a waste of money.
West Virginia Primary - Political Geography
State is a buffer zone where Applachian South, Middle Atlantic & Midwest collide.
Physically the state ranges from
–a sliver of the Shenadoah Valley in the far east at Harpers Ferry
–to the long ridges and valleys of the Alleghanies in most of the eastern panhandle and farther south down to the Greenbriar Valley, site of the famed White Sulfer Springs resort
–then the Alleghany/Appalachian plateau extending westward to the Ohio River and its southeastern tributary the Big Sandy and Tug Fork; this section of the state is not high in elevation, but exceedingly rugged, the result of eons of erosion, which has left little topsoil save in the narrow creek & river bottoms.
West Virginia is culturally a border state, with strong affinities to the upland South and the rest of Southern Appalachia. This is particularly true of southern and central WVa. The northern third of the state has strong ties with neighboring western Maryland and western Pennsylvania, while along the Ohio River the Buckeye State exerts a major attraction. And the far tip of the eastern panhandle is an emerging exurb of Washington, DC.
Largest Counties of WVa
KANAWHA (Charleston, state capital) pronouced “Can-AW’ah” this is includes plenty of state workers and sizeable numbers of middle class managers & professionals. But the further from the golden capitol dome, the gritter the landscape, including one of the major US petrochemical complexes, plus Cabin Creek and number of other narrow, winding valleys filled with coal mines & miners.
CABEL (Huntington) former railroad hub and now major center of southwestern part of state, near the junction of WV, Kentucky & Ohio. Home of Marshall U, mix of blue collar and middle class
BERKELEY (Martinsburg) lies in the Shenandoah Valley in the easternmost panhandle; traditionally Bourbon Democrat, in recent decades it has become part of the greater DC communter belt, which may be good news for Obama
MONONGALIA (Morgantown) is on the PA line south of Pittsburgh, and is the home of West Virginia U; the local economy was traditionally based on coal but is now centered on the university; large student population makes it one place Obama may do well
WOOD (Parkersburg) on the Ohio River is the main center of westcentral WV; a pretty sleepy region that has traditionally leaned Republican, but with significant number of bluecollar union workers
RALEIGH (Beckeley) is in the southern WVa coalfield, and coal is traditionally king here, though tourism has emerged as a major local industry; mix of bluecollar and rural
PUTNAM (Winfield) occupies the (relative) lowland corridor between Charleston & Huntington, and has become a focus for suburban development, along with traditional industries including chemicals & glass (a WVa specialty; Putnam Co is the home of Blenko)
MERCER (Bluefield) in far southern WVa on Virginia line, mines & rural, also significant Black population
MARION (Fairmont) is an industrial center in northcentral WV south of Morgantown; gritty and blue collar, plus rural; home of small state university
HARRISON (Clarksburg) also in northcentral WVa similar to above but sans university
OHIO (Wheeling) the commerical & industrial center of the northern WVa panhandle; old river town once famed for its stogies and also its whorehouses on Wheeling Island; mix of blue collar and middle class professionals
The rest of WVa’s counties each has its individual character & politics, ranging from Mingo in the far south on the Kentucky border, famed for Matewan and other bloody battlefields from the Hatfield McCoy feud and the latter Mine Wars, to Brooke Co at the northern tip of the northern panhandle.
Mr Smithson, I’m afraid you’re being a little inconsistent here. On the one hand, you regularly dismiss averages of polls as being meaningless; on the other, you say here that “different approaches by different firms can give us a clearer picture and help us to understand better what is going on”. If you really believe the latter, then averages of polls do have some use, since they reflect the wisdom of crowds.
To pre-empt your likely objection, I fully understand that opinion pollsters have different methodologies and that the data cannot be treated as equivalent. They are, however, all trying to measure the same thing, and the average of their results is of interest in the same way that averaging economic forecasts (which the Economist has done for many years) is of interest.
There is no way that Santos can take West Virginia. It is a cert for Bingo Bob.
On topic: well done to yougov on the london elections. But to jump to the conclusion that they are the best pollster and should be used by everyone is ridiculous.
10. What were the relevant figures from 2000 and 2004, Icarus? Is it still the same design?
I think these YouGov polls are as silly as the Mori ones in the nineties. Just because they called the London election right, where it was clear there was relatively high engagement from voters, on both sides, it doesn’t follow that their national polls aren’t exaggerating things. How do they cope with mass non-participation from a large chunk of the electorate (demoralised Labour supporters)?
Oh well, you’ve got to laugh, haven’t you? A bit of the old gallows humour never goes amiss
Since I last posted-as Hirohito might have said-things have developed not necessarily to Labour’s advantage……
Looking on the bright side…..The British Legion are £100 richer thanks to Tory Boy and I have some very nice stickers with my name and address on covered in poppies. I also put a £120 bet on Boris to dull the pain so Christies hospital too didn’t lose out……
….But unfortunately as Helen Hunt said to Jack Nicolson ‘that’s as good as it gets’……
Until three weeks ago I didn’t realize the depth of the dislike for this Labour Government. I went to a large dinner Party in the South of France on the night of the local elections and was genuinely surprised at what I heard. Then last week-end at a wedding of what I thought were ‘Hampstead liberals’ it was even worse….
I’d thought it was just a bandwagon effect caused by some cranky newspaper headlines and would soon blow over. Now I don’t think so and Innocent Abroad’s ‘Apocalyptic Scenario’ could be an early contender for prediction of the year.
“Andrew Mackinlay, a senior Labour MP, asked whether the government was prepared to consider bringing forward a referendum bill for the whole UK.
“The shots are being called from Edinburgh by the SNP and Wendy Alexander. At the very least, the Brown government should be bringing the debate to the Commons,” he said.
Another Labour MP described the situation as “visceral”, adding that David Cairns, the Scotland Office minister, had been going round the Commons with his head in his hands.
Asked if the Prime Minister had confidence in Ms Alexander, [Gordon Brown’s] spokesman said: “That is not a question for me.”
The Scottish Tories said: “Wendy’s worked out Gordon is a loser and has declared UDI [a Unilateral Declaration of Independence].” A source close to Mr Salmond said: “Some of our MSPs are asking if Ms Alexander is a secret nationalist. Scottish Labour now appears to have joined the independence coalition.”
Annabel Goldie, the Scottish Tory leader, raised the prospect of a referendum being decided by the unpopularity of Mr Brown and Ms Alexander. “Who would have thought that a Labour Prime Minister and a Scottish Labour leader would be the SNP’s greatest ally in breaking up Britain,” she said.”
‘Losing his grip on Scotland’
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/latestnews/-Losing-his-grip-on.4066970.jp
It is just a matter of time before NuLabour brings YouGov into state ownership!
More from the Government of U-Turns
Government accused of ‘giving up on Asbos’
Published by Jon Land for 24dash.com in Housing , Local Government on Thursday 8th May 2008 - 5:25pm
Government accused of ‘giving up on ASBOs’
The Government was today accused of “giving up” on Asbos after the latest official figures showed a sharp fall in the numbers being issued.
Home Secretary Jacqui Smith said the decline reflected the success of early interventions - such as acceptable behaviour contracts and parenting orders - in “nipping problems in the bud”.
However, the opposition parties said the fall amounted to an admission that the strategy, introduced by then Home Secretary Jack Straw in Labour’s first term in office, had failed.
The latest Home Office figures showed the number of Asbos being issued in England and Wales had fallen from a peak in 2005 of 4,123 to 2,706 in 2006.
11
Thanks Sea Shanty,
Hillary will win it by a land-slide.
Yesterday, on betfair, was crazy: I catched one bet of 2772 CAD$ at an average of 16% return. Now, the maximum we can get is… 2%.
The party is over!
Here is the video of a speech Clinton made in WV : “West Virgina is a Test for Obama”, she said! : http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=4813887
20
Not one bet, a series of bet, at an average of 16% — for 436CAD$ potential profit.
comment is superfluous, with this sort of finding.
Mori got the London result and overall national vote badly wrong.
It has had a lot of analysis on here and in past elections and it decided that it knew best and that challenges on here were wrong.
Mori has finally decided to review its methodology. Too late to keep some clients. The question its owners need to ask of its management is why they did not do some intensive analysis in a small event like a by election to check whether its processes were as good as other techniques?
Why has Mori (and others) not fully developed additional techniques such as internet surveys to check their own findings? The internet has been going 13+ years as a mass medium.
West Virginia Primary - 1960
The first and until now the last time the West Virginia Primary attracted serious attention from outside the state was in 1960.
That year, John F. Kennedy decided to make WVa the test for the viability of a Catholic presidential candidate in a state that was strongly Protestant in its religious practice and cultural ethos.
And the strategy worked, for several reasons.
–Kennedy spent money like water in state where this was and still is a useful tactic
–JFK was a very appealing candidate; in particular, his WWII record as the hero of PT-109 was well received in state that prides itself on its patriotism
–JFK barnstormed the state in way that had never been done before or since; in the process he made himself a local legend, for example there is small diner just north of Ripley, WV where you can sit on the same stool at the counter that JFK sat on to eat a ham burger (or was it a club sandwich?) nearly a half century ago.
–core Kennedy message was implicit but strong: only way to prove you are NOT a bigot is to vote for JFK
In his classic “The Making of the President 1960″ Theodore White tells the following story of Kennedy’s hapless WV primary opponent, Hubert Humphrey:
Humphrey was in serious financial straits by the time his campaign arrived in WVa (a state he’d earlier assumed was in the bag due to his strong labor backing). But HHH was able to scrape up enough cash for a half hour live telethon on the leading Charleston TV station. However, the setup was rudimentary; just a single phone, answered by the Minnesota Senator himself.
The first few callers asked standard, rather bland questions that Humphrey fielded easily. Then the voice of a very old and obviously quite angry woman blasted out of the phone and over the airways:
“Hubert Humphrey, you are terrible! You just get out of West Virginia! We don’t need you! So get out!”
Naturally even a politico as verbally gifted as Humphrey was monentarily dumbstruck by such an unexpected & indistilled dose of vemon. And before he had a chance to recover, the old bat concluded with more “get out, get out!” then hung up.
Looking shaken, HHH babbled for a bit about how he was sorry the lady was so upset (though he didn’t know why) but then these were serious, controversial issuses (whatever they were).
Then another call came in: “Mr Humphrey, I just feel awful that that woman said those terrible things about you. Why, Mr. Humphrey, most of us West Virginians would never say anything so rude as that, no sir, and I do want to appologize.” And on and on, in a gentle and very, very slow voice . . . as Humphrey tried to get a word in edgewise as the clock kept ticking away toward the end of his half hour of airtime.
Finally Humphrey was able to break in, accecpt the prooffered applogy, and conclude the call. Then another call came in, a question about jobs. HHH perked up considerably, and launched into his jobs program, the centerpoint of his message for WVa voters.
At this point a voice suddenly broke into the flow of Hubert’s discourse:
“This is an emergency, clear the line, clear the line!”
Once again Humphrey was rendered speechless. “What?” he croaked out in startled reply.
“This is the operator, this is an emergency, clear the line!”
Somewhere in rural West Virginia, way up a high ridgetop or down a dark holler, there was urgent need for a doctor or an ambulance. Primary or no primary.
So as the final monents of his telethon and his presidential campaign ticked away, Hubert Humphrey did the only thing he could do. He hung up the phone.
Alan - I am confused. The spoilt papers figure came from adding up the official figures for each borough the result was 41032 spoilt and 13034 blank. (A spreadsheet down loadable from: http://tinyurl.com/3wqakd ) However I have now found a part of the same site which compares the 2004 and 2008 elections http://tinyurl.com/6exase . On that site the rejected votes are 47799 (1.95%) and blank 39894 (1.63%).
Interestingly, blank votes are not included in the turnout figure!! For 2004 the combined figure was 6.17% (they were not separated).
As I said before, it was a good job things weren’t a bit closer - Would have been very embarrassing.
Tam Dalyell, former Labour MP, writes an article for the Edinburgh Evening News:
‘If the Scottish Parliament continues in existence, it means dismantling the UK’
http://news.scotsman.com/latestnews/39If-the-Scottish-Parliament-continues.4066871.jp
17 Why would the Japanese emperor be botherd about Labours poll ratings?
Unusually thoughtful post Roger, especially for you.
Question for you, good advertising PR type that you are; if you were advising Brown, what would you tell him to do?
According to CNN Obama is now only 8 Super-delegates behind Clinton’s, and they report some of the Edwards Carolina delegates are talking of supporting him.
I always like to bet on the Lib Dems at a by election, for one thing you normally get such a good price, will check this morning, after the You GOv poll, they might be 20-1 or more, with any luck.
From Tam Dalyell’s article:
“On Tuesday, The Scotsman published a letter from me arguing for a fourth question, in addition to independence, additional powers or the status quo.
My phone has been choked with support for asking: “Do you wish the Scottish Parliament to continue in being?”
… I believe people should be aware that if the Scottish Parliament now continues in existence, it does mean, sooner rather than later, the dismantling of the British state.
All I ask is people don’t sleepwalk into something that actually they don’t want.”
http://news.scotsman.com/latestnews/39If-the-Scottish-Parliament-continues.4066871.jp
27 - Roger’s obviously the better historian ;). The analogy was brilliant…
Me again, apparently Congressman Payne from New Jersey is switching from Clinton to Obama. If that is right it may mean the CNN difference is now down to 6. Better wait for announcement.
Morning all… Anyone got a hangover after last night? Good post Roger (17). Time for a fresh start I think.
Yesterday’s NY Times reported that Hillary was heckled at her rally in Shephardstown, WV which is in the far eastern panhandle near DC. Even Chelsea was heckled.
This could actually help Clinton with Mountain State voters. Who do tend to be polite (even when they don’t like you, though it gets rather formal) teach their kids to be polite (for the most part) and who tend to find rudeness offensive, esp. when directed at a woman.
On the other hand, expectations for Obama in WVa are exceptionally low. So if he’s anywhere approaching a single diget losing margin (say -15% or less) then it may be considered yet another moral “victory” like Indiana.
Of course Obama has some terrible handicaps:
–WV voters are disproportionate old, female & rural, and overwhelmingly White
–Appalachian Whites voting in Democratic primaries have been Obama’s single worst demographic since South Carolina; and WV is THE Appalachian state
–though plenty of Clinton haters, also lots of Clinton admirers in state that both Bill & Hillary have cultivated since the post 1992 convention bus tour
27 - What an awful question to ask Marcus! I’m not Roger, but I’ll stick my oar in anyway:
1. TAX - a RADICAL (and I mean RADICAL) remodelling of the whole tax and benefits system. Increase tax to 50% on those earning over £100k and remove the ceiling on NI. Increase all personal allowances to £10k. Tax non-doms etc at the standard UK rate. If they don’t like it, tell them they are free to leave.
2. Abandon ID cards - put the money saved to the child poverty target.
3. This is the contraversial bit - adopt a sort of Wisconsin system for unemployment benefit - allow only 5 years worth of claims in a lifetime. Compel people to take up work/training. Any more than 5 years, your benefit is cut and you will be made to work. The welfare state was not created so that people could live off it for 25 years. Clamp down hard on those who don’t deserve invalidity benefit and increase the benefit for those who do.
4. Possible voting reform for Westminister.
5. Start a green revolution. The govt has been far too lukewarm on this. Micro generation, wind, solar and wave should all be given tax breaks to encourage development.
6. Cancel Trident and use the money saved to increase pensions and to cut child poverty. Bring forward earnings-linked pensions.
This is a start, I suppose. But does Gordon have the guts or the verve to do any of this? I fear not. After last weeks’ appalling results, I, personally, would feel sort of liberated and I would let rip. Gordon just seems to be paralysed. More of the same will just not do.
4, would probably be a huge own goal. Brown doesn’t have the mandate or the authority to change the voting system, particularly if it would improve or be seen to improve his own electoral chances.
To clarify, I mean point 4 in post 35.
Re YouGov and the Sun that might explain why Bob Worcester was unusually tetchy in a recent interview.
36 - To be honest, I’m not a fan of PR either. You get all manner of small parties and cranks like Plaid and the Lib Dems perpetually holding the balance of power, flitting from one party to the next like a drunk tart at a wedding.
C&N ELECTIONS
“Crewe will be voting on 10p tax ‘con’, say Tories
The Guardian, Wednesday May 7 2008
David Cameron yesterday tried to turn the Crewe and Nantwich byelection into a referendum on Gordon Brown’s “tax con budget”, which led to the abolition of the 10p starting rate of tax.
On his first visit to Crewe after the death of the veteran Labour MP Gwyneth Dunwoody, the Tory leader said that a Tory victory on May 22 could help challenge the tax change. As he went on a walkabout, Cameron said: “The Labour government has turned round and kicked 5.3 million people in the teeth. The people of Crewe and Nantwich have got the chance to stop Gordon Brown and send a powerful message that they don’t want his budget.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/may/07/davidcameron.welfare
36 at this point, I think even the LibDems might fight shy of it. Any suggestion they were propping up Labour would be toxic for them in any LD-Tory marginal. They saw what happened to Plaid Cymru in Wales.
In Somerton & Frome the Lab candidate in a by-election stood aside to give the LibDem a clear run against the Tory.
The Tory beat him all the same.
39, I agree. No voting system’s perfect, but I prefer the system (FPTP in this case) which gives the biggest parties the power, rather than PR which gives the smaller of the three the role of kingmaker.
Not a fan of the idea of coalition government.
My 2p.
Fundamentally Labour need to realise that it is OVERDRAWN on political capital. It therefore cannot make big changes any more. It should have one or two totem policy, ditch the bad’uns outright and try to radically simplify the rest.
On Tax, if they do the 50p thing they have to raise the threshold. Clear and simple. Forget allowences for now. People value each pound they own much more than a pound they get handed out.
Forget PR. Only the Tories can deliver this now a la Nixon and China.
A windfall tax on the oil companies to pay for pensioners fuel, rural transport
And nothing else… Just good simple govt for two years.
34
… plus they are mostly Protestants (another Clinton advantage).
Jay Cost:
“West Virginia is 95% white, and one of the poorest states in the nation. Demographically, Pennsylvania’s twelfth congressional district is a decent proxy of it. Clinton won Pennsylvania’s twelfth by 46 points. A recent Rasmussen survey put her up 29 points in the Mountaineer State, with 17% undecided. Another poll had her up 40 points, with Obama under 25%.”
Here is the last poll: http://sundaygazettemail.com/News/200805050638
Here is Jay: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/05/not_quite_yet_1.html
I respect the Labour chaps who’ve shown their faces this morning. Can’t have been easy!
To RedFlump @ 35 - I don’t agree with all of those (being a right-wing sort, that’s to be expected, and doubtless a relief to you!), but I suspect that the media and public is now so firmly set against Gordon that if he DID suddenly start being radical in the ways you suggest, people would disdainfully harrumph “well how come it took you eleven years? Not good enough.” That may be a little unfair, but I suspect it’s also true.
RE 10. The electoral commission should be run by 3 Judges with an interest in electoral law. They should call the shots on how elections are run in this country. Parties would have to argue disputes before them. The voting system should be seen to be above all the political parties.
As far as the Scottish Parliament is concerned, Tam is right. The only way to save the UK is either to abolish it, or have a fully federal system- House of Commons would be the English chamber, matching those in Cardiff, Edinburgh and Belfast. The second chamber (old House of Lords) could be the UK federal chamber.
43 - Like the idea of a windfall tax on the oil companies.
I think most people (including, funnily enough, relatively high-earning middle class Tories) are sick and tired of people in this country not paying their fare shares. Non Doms should pay up or p*ss off.
£25k is the average income, so the 50% on £100k+ would not hurt the majority. Removing the ceiling on NI would bring in up to £12bn, and £10k allowances for everyone would mitigate most of the damage and increase the take home pay of the poor to boot.
What I don’t understand
Is why early on, Obama didn’t latch on to West Virginia. The way the JFK did in a few weeks. Or John D. Rockefeller IV aka Jay did over a number of years. Both to significant longterm political success.
Not in replacement of Chicago. Instead, as a supplement in an unlikely setting with tremendous potential.
Becasue I believe that the White Appalachian people of West Virginia and all across similar & related portions of the upper South and lower Midwest could and would respond to Obama and his message. IF he reached out to them directly, the way that JFK and Jay Rockefeller did.
What Jay Rockefeller did, was join Volunteers In Service to America, the domestic equivalent to the Peace Corp and serve as a VISTA volunteer in rural Kanawha County. Few years later he ran for the House of Delegates as a Democrat (in contrast to his GOP uncles Nelson & Winthrop, governors respectively of New York and Arkansas). After a few years in the legislature, Jay ran and was elected to statewide office, as WV Secretary of State.
Then he ran for Governor, but lost to sitting governor Arch Moore (who later served in the federal pen) in a close race. Four years later, Jay was elected and served several terms before running for US Senate, where he’s served ever since.
In WV, Jay is a respected if not exactly beloved political fixture. Though an aloof technocrat not well acclaimated to Mountains State folkways, Jay’s personal dedication to West Virginia along with is beltway clout earns him strong respect.
When Rockefeller first ran for Governor, one big drawing card, that voters spontaneously said over and over again: “he’s a rich man. So he won’t have to steal.” Which speaks volumes about WVa politics & government.
27. Roger’s often thoughtful, but not always right. In this case, I can well imagine him being surprised at the results. Perhaps his location at the time might give a clue as to why he didn’t see it coming. Labour’s traditional core vote is highly hacked off not just with the 10p issue, but that has come to symbolise Labour’s willingness to chase the Blair Tories as their expense. This is slightly unfair as Labour’s overseen a huge redistribution through benefits and government spending, but as a lot of that has been done quietly, many won’t have noticed and besides, having to rely on benefits is patronising (literally) and may also provoke a degree of resentment.
On Mike’s main point, I agree to an extent with antifrank at [12] that there certainly appears to be a bit of inconsistency. The only thing I can assume Mike means is that when there are more pollsters and more methodologies in play (and whose raw figures and methodologies are published), it means it’s more likely that at least one will get it right. Put another way, if everyone uses the same methodology and that develops a flaw, no-one produces anything useful.
Are the Sun’s photos suggesting that Gordon Brown is even less popular than both Josef Fritzl as well as Ant and Dec? They’ve probably got it about right!
45 - Yes Andy, I fear people have just stopped listening. But you either cling on grimly for the next two years and be defeated - or actually DO SOMETHING in government. You may still be beaten at the end of the day (and let’s face it, we are not a one-party State!) but at least you will go down fighting!
If you raise the threshold for NI and introduce 50% of 100k+ where does the money go?
It is only one side of the equation.
You have to be clear about why your doing it and who needs help. The simplest way to do it would be to raise the threshold. It has to be simple or it won’t make a difference.
52, given that FTSE 100 countries are already leaving the country for tax reasons and we’ve got a higher tax rate than ever before, we should be talking about where we can cut them, not revenue neutral shifting of the tax burden or increasing them.
Of course, that would be easier if Brown hadn’t loaded us with debt and endless spending commitments.
50 - I’m just stunned that given those two stories it still decided to lead on the opinion poll. The Ant and Dec rigged vote story is a tabloid classic.
53, companies*, not countries. Treacherous fingers.
52 - As I said Johnathan, most of it would go on raising everyone’s tax-free allowance to £10k. Any left over I would give to pensioners and poor families.
48. Wasn’t WV where Lyndon Johnson went to demonstrate the need for his Great Society programme? If Obama is the modern version of Kennedy, then Hillary is a (very) cheap version of Johnson. Obama might have the style, but surely she has the more attractive policies for the place (though I’d have though Edwards would have been the ideal candidate for the state had he still been in)?
53 Agree “lower tax” for the low paid is the better way to approach it.
I don’t want to be anti-business (heaven forfend!) but if you cut ALL tax to business, they would still moan. Corporation tax could be cut, but a lot of companies are fiddling their tax liabilities as it is.
Interesting to see Ladbrokes have cut Jacqui Smith from 50-1 to 25s. Be interested to hear from Shadsy how much interest there has been.
VC still going 50-1. I took some while it’s still available.
56 Sadly I doubt it would stretch anywhere near that far, but your doing better than the govt.
43
A windfall tax on oil companies?
I think the majors would upsticks and go elsewhere.
The UK is becoming a hostile climate to business.
And BTW whom do you rely on to find new sources of oil and gas?
The Government?
When resources become scarce, a country that taxes oil profits is going to find it sucks on the nind tit when it comes to supply allocation.
50. Some fool at the Sun transposed the headlines.
58, “we should be talking about where we can cut them, not revenue neutral shifting of the tax burden or increasing them”
Of course the lower paid should be beneficiaries, but I’m talking about cutting the tax take the government takes as a whole, not, as I quote above, shifting about where tax comes from but keeping it at the present level.
Especially for Mark Senior and all other doubters of Boris’s great victory - you can celebrate the liberation of London by sending a cheque for £10 payable to ‘Helen and Douglas House’
Helen & Douglas House
14A Magdalen Road
Oxford
Oxon
OX4 1RW
Mark Senior might be wrong on just about everything but he stands by his bets - in other words you might not agree with his unique application of statistical techniques but he really believes what he posts so accusations of blind spin are now out as far as I’m concerned
62 It’s been done before and they didn’t shift then. I think British Gas is a good candidate too. Record profits and a real market failure vs real hardship in rural areas. Let’s do it.
41 And, of course, the well-known example in the last GE, in New Forest East, a Lib Dem target, where the Labour candidate was openly recommending a vote for the Lib Dems - the Lib Dem vote going sharply backwards!
Good question
Obama is incredibly talented — enough to seduce the most reluctant, culturally conservative, with a mix of cool economic populism and trendy neo-patriotism.
On the other hand, If Jay Cost is right — and he has a strong tendency to be — that the demography of Pennsylvania’s twelfth congressional district is a crystal of WV, then Clinton might win by more than 30 points… those people seems yet to be impermeable to Obama’s charm.
Hence, maybe Obama saw WV as a waste of time.
And might choose a VP Candidate able to attract that specific, impermeable clientele.
A lot of this “We’ll move abroad” stuff is just blather. We need a good business environment, but not at the expense of the people who need the most help.
62 BTW Obama agrees with windfall tax. It’s doable. Come on Gordon.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/apr/25/barackobama.uselections20081?gusrc=rss&feed=worldnews
35. Apart from the voting reform proposal, which others have already commented on, that programme would make sense as a fighting retreat. The question is whether after Borodino to abandon Moscow?
Adopting those policies (shy of the voting reform, which would rightly look like an attempt to fix the system, and would in any case either deny Labour an overall majority ever again (PR) or lead to an even greater defeat (AV)), would help sure up the core vote, keep the party together, give it something to fight for, and on the environmental front, provide a lasting legacy as Cameron would have no option but to keep it going. It would also be an admission of expected defeat at the next election, abandoning the floating voters who started drifting away in the run up to Iraq and have been leaving in larger numbers since. That would mean abandoning a whole load of MPs in currently marginal seats - a recipe for backbench dissent and rebellion. Not a pretty choice, but I would expect a ’steady as she sinks’ policy rather than anything more radical.
17 Roger - an honest post as ever, but am worried that you may have been kidnapped… it lacked the usual delusions!
As has been said, top marks for the Labour turnout this morning (and to Nick P last night).
I don’t quite believe this poll, much as I would like to. I get the same loathing of the government that Roger is finding amongst his dinner guests, but am not finding quite the 49% levels of ecstasy about Cameron. I’d guess low 40s is nearer the mark. However, if Cameron now goes heavy on NHS policy, education, mending broken families, etc, then I think he could go to high 40s. He must steer clear (even more than ever) from tax, Europe, Immigration, etc.
One week in and no gaffe from Boris; in fact he has made a solid start in my book. If this continues (as I expect it to) then it wil cement the Conservatives as a credible and responsible government in waiting.
Oh joy. Can it get any better than this? Just wish the weather hadn’t broken for my day off…
66, how outrageous that a company should make a profit.
The windfall tax would end up being passed onto consumers.
And, if you’re really bothered about people paying too much for petrol, slash the tax on it.
The Left’s answer to everything seems to be: Let’s tax it [more].
A study out a week or two ago showed that motorists could be convinced to drive green by incentives (exemption from premium tax, which makes greener cars typically more expensive) but couldn’t be by penalties and increased taxes for not behaving ‘appropriately’.
17 - Jesus H Christ. If ROGER thinks that then Gordon really should quit!
70 - I wouldn’t hold your breath Johnathan! Gordon has proved (so far) to be an utter disappointment on almost every level. Where is your spirit Gordon? Where is the FIRE???
73 You’re right profits are great. Bu profits from monopoly positions are not great. Tax is a legitate way to deal with market failure. The rise in oil prices, where there haws been no increased cost in production is highly dubious.
BP and Shell’s profits (from our national oil) were $68bn! Even a fraction of that would make a huge difference to pensioners in fuel poverty. No need to pass on any costs at all.
If it’s good for Obama, it’s good for me.
Simplifying the tax system, by abolishing NI would be popular I think, and raising tax thresholds substantially as at the same time getting rid of the appallingly expensive tax credit system- whoops, sounds a bit Tory!
46. AJK - “As far as the Scottish Parliament is concerned, Tam is right. The only way to save the UK is either to abolish it, or have a fully federal system- House of Commons would be the English chamber, matching those in Cardiff, Edinburgh and Belfast. The second chamber (old House of Lords) could be the UK federal chamber.”
Of course Tam Dalyell (Old Etonian, former Chairman of the Conservative Association at King’s College Cambridge, and former Labour MP) is “right” when he writes that “if the Scottish Parliament now continues in existence, it does mean, sooner rather than later, the dismantling of the British state.” It is inevitable, and quite frankly always has been to anyone with half a brain. Why on earth do people suppose that the Scottish National Party campaigned so hard for a ‘Yes’ vote in the 1997 Referendum?
On your second point: I could write a veritable essay on why a fully symetrical federal/confederal United Kingdom is utterly impossible. But I will save you that for today
But suffice to point out one very plain, awkward problem: England & Wales share one unified legal system, so answer me this - How on earth do you start going about disentangling English Law from a new autonomous Welsh Legal System? Bloomin hard, if not impossible, without Welsh independence. In practice it would never be even attempted without Welsh independence.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_devolution_referendum%2C_1997
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_law
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tam_Dalyell
76 - Hear hear Johnathan. I am certainly not against businesses making a profit and risk-takers earning lots of money. Good luck to them. Just as long as they pay their fare share.
76, but the profits aren’t earnt at the pump, but at source.
The reason petrol costs so much is because under the guise of ‘being green’ the tax accounts for more of the cost than the petrol itself.
“No need to pass on any costs at all.”
Businesses exist to make profit. If government takes some away, they’ll seek to recoup it from their customers. If I have a million pounds and lend you a fiver, I’m still going to ask for it back.
It’s almost as bad as the suggestion that the Treasury might seek to recompense the losers from the 10p tax fiasco by upping the minimum wage. That would leave the poor unaffected financially, but only by making business pay the price for government cockup.
Sorry that’s £68bn not $68bn. A similar order of magnitude to the UK’s entire Education or Health budget!!
41. Hello Ms.Mogg
77 - To be frank, we in the party are past caring whether or not a policy “sounds Tory” - if it should be done, let’s do it!
62. HMG is making more money out of the high oil prices then the oil companies. Thats what so annoying about the current issue with the price of fuel at the pump.
A tax mechanism which kept itself revenue neutral (ie offset duty when HMG is making a killing on high oil prices) on fuel at the pump needs to be investigated. At the moment they are taking the mickey as VAT is levied on the cost of the fuel plus the duty, it really is a tax on a tax.
Without duty the cost of petrol at the pump would be about 50p a litre…. In the present climate of green fascism and psbr its unlikely that a government could reduce it entirely, but why the year on year increase???
81, and under 3/4 the liability of Northern Rock.
Or, the value of 6.8 trillion penny sweets.
Globe-spanning businesses tend to make lots of money. It’s not a crime (although with two years of Brown left…)
Morning Campers !!
Superdelegate Congressman Rick Larsen of Washington State has endorsed Obama :
http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/larsen-endorses-obama-after-hill-meeting-2008-05-08.html
O/T - It being a beautiful day I decided to amble to work in Mayfair from my London Terminus of Liverpool Street. I have to report to pb.commers that as St Paul’s Cathedral hove into view who should approach upon his pedal conveyance but our esteemed London Mayor. I further report that this cheery velocitous mass was displaying at least one of the signs of genius being somewhat of the order of 99% perspiration.
85 Well we’ll have to agree to disagree. I think Shell&BP could proabably survive profits of £60bn rather than £68bn. Poor dears. In the meantime I hope Obama continues to lead the way on this!
77. Abolishing the tax credit is going to create serious unrest. A low earning family, two kids, one earner, could easily be sucking up £7,000 a year in tax credits, and if one of their children likes to burn down schools/ steal cars then they will also be entitled to the disability top up as well.
We are talking about huge numbers, Labour, if they are smart could scare an awful lot of people away from voting Tory if it looked like they where going to get rid tax credits.
88, and I could survive without eating chocolate muffins but that doesn’t mean I wouldn’t be bloody annoyed if Gordon Brown stole my muffins.
Anyway, you’re probably right. We’ll just have to agree to disagree. Or, you can agree that I’m right:p
90 I will agree that you’re right wing. Maybe one less chocolate muffin would do you good!
So, how much business is MORI going to lose as a result of their “Ken WINS!!!” poll idiocy?
I suspect The Sun is just the first.
New Research 2000/dKos Presidential Poll for Texas :
McCain 53% .. Clinton 38%
McCain 52% .. Obama 39%
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/8/163458/6653/565/512005
Not a good night for Hilary. Al Sharpton quoted in the New York Times, following interview yesterday evening:
“The worst thing is when an enetertainer doesn’t know when to leave the stage. The show is over Senator Clinton”
Thought his words could well carry weight amongst some black super delegates from New York, who have supported Clinton, and who apparently openly welcomed Obama at Congress yesterday.
The problem with the kind of radically redistributive tax strategy that’s being urged here is that (from Labour’s point of view) it risks killing the goose that lays so many golden eggs. The government really has raked in vast amounts of money from wealthier taxpayers, companies, non-doms (indirectly) since 1997, and if they up sticks, or stop working, Labour will find itself in even more of a fiscal mess than it’s in at the moment.
RE Windfall taxes.
We should be proud of the fact that in three industries in particular, oil, mobile phones and banking, we British play host to the global premier league.
Penalising success like some propose would seriously harm jobs and investment.
If any Government makes a habit of springing windfall taxes you will just deter companies from declaring bumper years; or from listing in London.
And at a time when our pension funds need all the cash they can get (because if people don’t retire on their pensions they will rely on the state…) the last thing any Government should be doing is discouraging companies from declaring big profits.
New TSG Consulting Primary Poll for West Virginia :
Clinton 63% .. Obama 23%
http://sundaygazettemail.com/News/200805050638
Editorial in New York Times today urges Hilary NOT to try and seat the Michigan and Florida delegations. What is happening?
Don’t know about you Jack, but West Virginia appears to be of less significance with each passing day, if Obama gets 25 - 30% he will have another 7 -9 delegates, and judging the way the Supers are breaking he could have it all but wrapped up by May 21st.
98 - People are trying to tell her politely to shove off and stop wasting everyone’s time.
@100:
It is getting rather late, Hills, and we *do* have work in the morning…
It’s thrilling to see Labour posters itching for a return to the 1970s. The script is being followed to the letter, Labour are going to be out of office for many, many years.
They were discussing the Bendy Wendy / break up of UK on the Today programme this morning, people starting to agree it looks a bit terminal for Brown / Labour Govt, i thought.
Andrew Neal said that Brown had started well with the handling of foot and mouth last summmer etc. But i thought that this was a problem of poor control of hygiene at a government laboratory in the first place so clearing up a mess caused by their own lax standards hardly covers the government in glory, surely….. just more spin.
17- Roger- nice to see you!
I know I have really put the boot in on Brown here for many months. I make no apology for this. The autumn debacle was enough evidence for me to realise that Gordon was hopeless and doomed to lead Labour into election oblivion.
Labour will lose the next election, but the Wendy Alexander furore (the girl has risen twenty fold in my estimations), just indictaes what weak, indecisive, ineffective leadership Gordon is providing. It is not just the Labour party that suffers, it is the country quite frankly.
The country deserves a leader with some sense of how to lead.
So Labour MP’s- they must do their worst, and try however which way to remove Gordon even though this will not save them the next election. There is a bigger picture.
96 Agree to Disagree Marcus.
Profit is great. But it is legitimate sometimes to correct market failiures with tax. The price of oil is a market failiure. Excess profits taken on our national resources should be shared with those most in need. Oil belongs to all of us. I hope Obama delivers it in the White House. Would Shell and BP suffer hugely from a £5bn levy. Yes, but not hugely. Would rural areas and pensioners benefit from a £5bn injection, yes.
There are utilitarian arguments for a windfall tax.
Clinton good net huge victories in WV, Ken. and Peurto Rico. Possibly 40%+, in WV and Ken. This could bring her PV up by 3-400,000.
Maybe this is not over?
105 Most of the benefit from rising oil prices already accrues to the government.
104. On the contrary, the country needs a leader who doesn’t believe in centralised control and knows that neither he nor anyone else can “lead”; that a country is not “run” from an office in Whitehall, but rather by millions of actions made daily by millions of individuals.
102 That 1970’s argument is so boring and far from the truth. Just picking up on themes in the current us election. It’s here and now.
Pure unrestriced capitalism is an idea that’s had it’s day. The likes of Northern Rock and Enron killed it.
06. could not good! Obviously too early for me…
102 - Some of my proposals in post 35 are certainly not a “return to the 70s”. As Johnathan says in 109, unrestricted capitalism is just as bad as too much state control. Millions of people would support a government that defended their interests against the power of the multinationals. We want and need global, successful nusinesses in the UK - but not at the expense of our people.
65 Thanks kingbongo , now I need ghost of harry flashman to pay me .
67 That is factually incorrect , the LibDem vote went up in 2005 in New Forest East but only a litlle , the Labour vote went down by a much larger percentage .
35 I agree that something on these lines might - just might - retsore Labour’s fortunes (although not 4 and 6 - cancelling trident would raise too many ghosts from the past and changing the electoral system just now would seem desperate).
But this would only work if the leader is also changed - Gordon has no credibility and would not be believed even if he had the verve to make big policy initiatives (which, of course, he hasn’t).
109. Hmmm, the finance industry is not a great example of unrestricted capitalism; there is a considerable amount of government intervention therein and I believe always has been.
@109:
I think it’s worth pointing out that we’ve never really *tried* pure, unrestricted capitalism to declare it a failure.
What has failed is corporate welfarism in the GOP vein.
72. Robin Wiggs - “… if Cameron now goes heavy on NHS policy, education… “
This is a real, and growing, problem for the Tories: they are going to be banging on about the NHS and the education system for the next two years: the English NHS, and the English education system that is. Because both Health and Education are devolved to the Northern Ireland Executive, the Scottish Government, and the Welsh Assembly Government.
De facto, the Tories really will be the party of England, not the United Kingdom. Bye bye Yookay…..
The trouble with these bankers (and I’m not using this word as a euphemism!) is that they don’t want any government intervention when they are raking it in and screwing everyone over in the process, but when things go wrong they scream “why doesn’t the government DO something!” and come cap in hand. They are quids in, regardless.
We should clamp down hard on these people. If this was the US, the bosses at Northern Rock would be in jail now, not collecting their “golden goodbyes”.
has anybody indicated when next poll is due to be published?
O/T - Repossessions up 16% first quarter!
114 Good.
But the trouble with the recent problems is that the regulators have been playing catch up with the sophisticated new instruments the banks have been using, plus in the case of Enron the auditors have not been doing their job properly.
115 We do not have time to debate the pros and cons of Laissez-faire capitalism. But it is arguable that after it emerged in the c18 and c19 it itself produced the evolution of welfare and powerful govt instutions to regulate it.
It was certainly tried in the 90s in Russia without those instutions and yet again didn’t have much success. Putin’s Russia is doing better.
119 - My mistake, possession claims rather than full repossession.
99 dave(s). The manner of Hillary’s exit will be important to her and the Democrats. There is some speculation that she’ll exit with a nice big win in West Virginia. There’s also the finance question. She’s struggling to raise new cash from donors and some reports indicate that she’s had to loan her campaign even more cash and may now be more than $20M in debt.
115 We got close in the early 19th century, but it led to eight year olds working in factories seven days a week and epidemics of cholera in overcrowded and insantiary cities and so the view was taken that capitalism needed some restraints.
122: Maybe Hillary will keep going to keep raising cash, but just not spend most of it so she can pay off her debts. Of course, this would p1ss of her donors, but anyone stupid enough to keep funding her now deserves all they get!
All this talk of what Labour should do….I think that whatever they do, they’re going to lose the next election quite badly, and probably by a margin great enough to ensure defeat in 2014 too (events notwithstanding, of course).
Therefore, faced with the possibility (probability?) of being out of office until 2018, I can certainly see the appeal to some of their number in thinking “what the hell” and doing lots of severely left-wing things in the next two years, while they still can.
Is that a fair comment, Tyson/Flump/Jonathan et al?
@123:
But those are not failures of capitalism, those were failures in social policy.
The thing you have to remember about capital is that it is amoral: the state, however, cannot be.
After watching question time last night I have to say Heseltine did well. He dealt with Piers Morgan very well ‘if you ask the question you have to listen to the answer’ and made some good points. Rachel Johnson should…go away. James Purnell was fine, apart from the scottish question, where he followed the labour line of ignoring the question and repeating Wendy Alexanders position. ‘Does Brown suppoer Aleander’s position’, reply’well Wendy, and we all, believe that the SNP shouldn’t hide away from a referendum’. The answer has onl a tenuous link to the question, and makes labour look evasive and confused. Peirs Morgan showed why despite his showbiz links he’ll never be popular, and once again licked Brown’s backside (he does it every time he’s on, hasn’t been proved right yet).
117 Couldn’t disagree more. The industries with the most unfair profits are nearly always those distorted by piles and piles of legislation; licencing and regulation; which act to limit new entrants to a market and ‘control’ competition. Any industry where massive value can be added to an asset (like a landing slot or a plot of land) by the stroke of a bureacrats/politicians pen is where you will find sometime obscene and unfair profiteering.
The airline business, broadcasting, trains, property development, pharmeceuticals and defence spring to mind, but there are others.
Open markets always offer a better deal to consumers and well run companies benefit their shareholders.
@125:
It’s hard to be left wing in an environment in which Socialism is widely regarded as (a)stupid and (b)dead.
125 No-one has argued for “servely left-wing things”. Unless, in my case, you think Obama is severely left wing. It is perfectly possible that Cameron will win next time and do a Heath.
109. 111. Keep on digging chaps - despite your protestations, your posts are classic examples of 1970s style thinking and rhetoric. And post 117. is more or less pure ignorance.
As NuLabour goes down the pan, the Labour grassroots shows its true colours, as clueless and one-dimensional as ever.
123. No, society just had to evolve. We needed public health legislation to cope with large numbers of people in close contact with each other, the way children were treated had not changed, just their jobs had changed.
‘Childhood’ is a Victorian concept. Prior to then, a child made themselves useful to the family unit as soon as possible. Eight years old on farms would have been expected to work no less then those who worked in the towns. Eight year olds in small proto-industrial sectors, such as a household servicing a tradesman, would be working every day, from sun rise to sun set.
@131:
The only thing holding the regressive Socialistic tendencies of Labour at bay was the electoral success of New Labour.
Now that’s gone, the old guard are creeping out of the shadows, ready to strangle whatever remaining life there is in New Labour.
[12] - Further to that, computer modellers have found that an average of computer models, with different errors and methodologies, can often lead to better modelling. This is even the case when models which are demonstrably worse than the “best” model are included in the ensemble.
It’s also worth pointing out that, taking the Yougov polls at face value, they showed a large swing towards