Isn’t the news agenda going to just move on?
June 13th, 2008
Will we still remember the cause on polling day?
I’m on the penultimate day of my touring holiday in Spain and haven’t had much access to the UK media during the past extraordinary 24 hours so it’s hard forming an opinion of how this is going to play.
Hopefully we should see some quickie poll soundings which will give a sense of whether the former Shadow Home Secretary has made a ghastly mistake or whether he has public support. A constituency survey would be particularly useful.
The biggest danger for Davis and Labour is that the news agenda will move on very quickly. The Irish EU referendum results look set to dominate the political headlines this weekend and then there’s the risk of the petrol crisis spreading. By July 10 the original cause of the by election could be all but forgotten.
One of the key elements is how Davis himself is perceived - because his whole “hard man” image makes it hard to pin the description on him of being “soft on terror”. For the whole strategy of Gordon Brown in all of this was to push for the 42 days so that such a label could be attached to the Tories.
The morning papers suggest that Labour might not fight the by election in the hope that this will undermine the importance of the by election and make Davis’s gesture appear futile. That might seem the right Labour decision this weekend but how will it look on polling day? A party of government not being prepared to contest a key contest might not look smart when other matters have come to the fore.
Mike Smithson
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I think you may be correct, Mike. This seems like an earth-shattering political development in the moment, but I suspect it will fade from the headlines very quickly particularly if, as now seems likely, Davis faces no serious opposition to retain his seat.
As I was away yesterday and unable to comment, I would like to say that I have great respect for David’s conviction and admiration for his tenacity on this issue and I agree with him on the substance of his resignation statement though I do wonder about the soundness of his tactics. It is highly unlikely that this will fundamentally alter the political climate, but it does seem likely to cause some short term discomfort for David Cameron and the Conservative Party. Precisely how long it lasts will depend upon the news agenda, but a moderate Labour recovery in the next round of opinion polls is to be expected.
On a personal note, may I say how very pleased I am to see that the particular talents of my own MP, Dominic Grieve have finally been recognised and rewarded by the party leadership? It is long overdue and I know he will discharge these new duties with great skill and poise; I only regret that a chain of events such as these have led to his elevation.
I continue to plough my lonely furrow and suggest this is a potential H Bomb. If , and its a big if, Davis plays this correctly he can tap into very powerful wells of support.
1. The Anti Politics well spring. While of course a career politican his clear sincerity can make him into a Mr Smith. People who frankly don’t give a stuff about 42 days will rally because he is acting out of principle.
2. If he joins the dots. CCTV, Bin snoopers, finger printing children, the DNA data base, speed cameras, ID cards etc and thats before we get to EU intrusion. He could unite people from the liberal left and UKIP under one banner
3. Because this is a counter inuitive stance for a Tory he can bury deep the “liberal Conservative ” message. It could be the last act in the death of the nasty party. The final curtain on brand decontamination. Every liberal in Britain who may never actually vote Tory would at least not fear a tory government. The effect on tactical unwind could be huge.
Its Nick Cleggs 6 month mark on Wednesday. Taking on 42 days isn’t the Tories love bombing the Lib Dems. Its love nuclear bombing them. I suspect that is effectively the end of his (effective) leadership. he may carry on in practice for another 2 years but if this goes as well for the Tries as i fear it might he is finished.
The mo i think about this the less i understand why Labour wouldn’t want to fight this election. They have little to lose - their existing vote only stands at 12% - but everything to gain. Not standing might turn the whole thing into a damp squib but that’s not going to help Labour much in the current political climate.
This will not be a conventional by-election for voters to punish the government. It is necessarily a single issue election - a single issue where polls suggest large public support for the Govt position. In such circumstances it is inconceivable that the Labour vote won’t rise. It is not IMO totally inconceivable that they might have an outside shot of winning.
The ONLY issue is whether they can find a Labour candidate to put a confident case for 42 days… (and ID cards, CCTV, the lot).
Because Davis literature will by necessity make no attempt to exploit any other cause for dissatisfaction with the Govt.
BTW for all those people calling it a “silly stunt” there was a time when putting yourself up for re-election was routine. It was mandatory for backbenchers appointed as Cabinet Ministers. In 1923 Baldwin went the whole hog and called a General Election on a single issue. The cabinet ministers often lost (didn’t Churchill once?), and Baldwin did.
No MP can take the electorate for granted and if Labour had the courage of their convictions they would fight this seat with relish.
1 Hi AHM. Long time no speak. I hope life is treating you well.
The next round of Polls will certainly put Mike’s theory about media exposure being a poll positive measure almost irrespective of the contents ( embarassing extreme behaviour excluded) to the test for sure.
It’s an odd one personally for me this. You know how highly I rate DD from days past and if help is required I shall head North
without delay, yet I remain distinctly uncomfortable over his / the party’s position on 42 days.
The principles of the debate are well rehearsed so I won’t bother rehashing them again, especially as I know I’m in a small minority at PB.com on the subject, but I personally can’t help but keep defaulting to the belief that the (potential) needs of the vast majority of the British public are better served by having the measures available, if, and hopefully they never will be, required.
The concessions made over the measures deployment allied to a fairly generous compensation package to those suffering from false/abortive arrests, much as I hate to say so, reluctantly take me into the government’s camp on this one (abstension being pure moral cowardice)
These headlines make it even more imperative that there is a proper contest and that means the Lib Dems standing. Their leadership decision not to stand was, in my view, wrong hasty and ill considered, it should be re-considered immediately.
5 - Just as a matter of interest, do you believe that the Police should be able to arrest someone and leave them stewing in a cell for several days without questioning (and in the first instance any idea why they are being held? Because that is the inevitable result of continuously lengthening the pre-charge detention period. People being held speculatively, and history has shown that over time (much shorter times than we are discussing here ) some people will confess to anything, just almost to seek release from limbo, even if logic says that such actions can do nothing to help them.
6 That may or may not be true dave but the die is cast.
There’s no way on earth that Clegg can reverse his position on this and not in the LDs best interest to boot him out (at this time)
Fantastic dynamics have been set loose all round though haven’t they?
7 On balance and after huge reflection IF there is reason to believe that evidence might shortly be forthcoming that justifies doing so and potentially saving scores/hundreds/thousands of lives, yes.
I can’t say it fills me with joy to say so though.
My trigger point on this is the inconsistency in principle of those happy to accept 28 days, yet find 42 days anathema
Please help me !
IRISH REF. TURNOUT: 47-50%
“voting began to pick up yesterday evening as commuters left work and stopped off to vote on their way home, leading to the belief the turnout would be in the high 40s or in the early 50s.”
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/result-too-close-to-call-on-turnout-of-just-45pc-1407985.html
9 - i think who accepted 28 days didn’t do so out of genuine support but because it seemed to a) represent some sort of finality on the issue (”this far and no further”) and b) was necessary at the time to head off the introduction of 90 days.
I think the evidence already suggests that police are “spreading out” investigations to fill the time available and if you are going to argue for 42 days on the groung that it is “not much different” from 28 days, then you might as well argue for indefinite detention since every number no matter how big can be reached usi this sort of salami method. (as demonstrated since 2000 when we have gone from 2 to 7 to 14 to 28 to 42? …)
*I think many who accepted …
Infact arguably the arbitrary nature for all these number of days actually creates problems for Cameron in promising repeal. Because the reverse arguments can easily be applied: “what so special about 28 days that is is worthwhile repealing 42 days?” etc. As it happens the nature of this particular bill reduces this problem - it is possible to argue for repeal on the grounds of its provisions (parliamentary approval, compensation etc) rather than on the principle of 42 vs 28.
People like Nick Palmer might like to explain why the issue of compensation was so key for people being “wrongly” held between 28 and 42 days, but not for the month before that? What is the principle at stake there?
All these debates without proper evidence are typical political triangulation. Set up two supposed “extreme” positions and the majority will coalesce around some compromise in the middle.
Irish Ref. –> “Detailed count results for each constituency Electorate”
will be available here:
http://www.ireland.com/focus/thelisbontreaty/
13 I tend to agree, it does cause problems for Cameron (either way)
It is getting extremely messy all round.
I also agree with you over compensation. Complete inconsistency.
I hate to say so, but I fear on balance this move is going to bomb for DD, irrespective of the B/E result.
15 And yes, that is a change of mind from my first thoughts on hearing the news !
(Sad/talking to yourself @ 6:05 am .. logs off)
David Davis is finished as a serious politician. He selfishly put his ego before the values of the Conservative party, and now he will have to suffer the consequences of life as politician on the backbenches.
There is nothing more important to this country than securing a Conservative election victory in the next two years. I’m disappointed Davis lost sight of this reality yesterday. But now we have to move on together without him.
I urge my fellow Conservatives to keep this by-election in the shadows and offer only marginal public support should media attention require it.
Stay focused on spreading our warm message of lower taxes, reducing the upper rate of income tax, addressing capital gains concerns, abolition of the minimum wage, income support, and zero-tolerance on crime.
Together we can ensure this country is once again returned as a Conservative Britain.
(repost from yesterday, which had a typo)
The latest Scottish voting intention sub-sample is the first occasion in modern times (about 50 years?) that the Scottish Tories have drawn level with the Labour Party in Scotland (AFAIAA). In addition to being level with the Tories on %age vote, Labour would fall behind the Lib Dems to 3rd place in terms of seats, by Martin Baxter’s reckoning.
The detailed data-sheets from the June Populus poll for The Times were released yesterday (a tad late under BPC rules, by my reckoning… ). Usual caveats regarding sub-samples of GB-wide polls apply.
Populus/Times
Westminster voting intention - Scotland
Sample size: 136
Fieldwork: 6-8 June 2008
1. SNP 36% (+18%)
2= Con 22% (+6%)
2= Lab 22% (-17%)
4. LD 16% (-7%)
5. Grn 2% (+1%)
6. BNP 1% (+1%)
oth 1%
Giving, according to Electoral Calculus, a seat distribution of:
1. SNP 38 seats (+32 seats)
2. LD 8 seats (-3 seats)
3. Lab 7 seats (-33 seats)
4. Con 5 seats (+4 seats)
5. Speaker (Michael Martin) 1 seat (n/c)
http://populuslimited.com/uploads/download_pdf-080608-The-Times-The-Times-Poll—June-2008.pdf
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll_scot.html
Things are looking dire, dire, dire for Gordon Brown and Wendy Alexander at next years’ Euros. (If they both make it that far.) 3rd place behind the Scottish Tories is now looking a distinct probability at the Euros in Scotland.
2 - I tend to agree with that. If DD plays this in the right way, and there is every reason to believe that he will, then it causes the biggest problem for Clegg and the LibDem’s as it rips the ground from under their feet. I also think that it has the potential to unite a massive coalition of interests around issues of freedom from state intereference because the Conservative position is similar if not identical to the Davis position. I think the Labour response so far has been instructive in that they are not taking on the issue of liberty at all and I dont think they dare engage with it because they know that they will lose big time. Half my non-political friends wish that they lived in Haltemprice because they want to vote for him. As for Cameron he does have a dilemma over Davis but it is one that is easily resolved. Once Davis is back in the Commons I would charge him with keeping this debate going from now until the next election and make Davis the civil liberties conscience of the Conservative Party.
RodCrosby said in a post yesterday: “Worsthorne: “SNP were a temporary aberration..””
I assume you are referring to something Peregrine Worsthorne has written (or perhaps said?). Could you provide a link Rod, or at least give us the context? I have Googled without result.
If 42 day bill is rejected in the Lords, and it returns to the Commons, might Davis’ ’stunt’ undo Gordon’s Commons majority, and be the first step on the ladder for sinking Brown?
If it was, Davis will get the kudos for finishing Brown, notcameron.
Interesting how the whole political Westminser based bubble do not understand what Davis has done. It just doesn’t compute for them that someone has real principles, hence all the headlines and the pathetic nu lab response that its really all about tory internal rifts.
My read is that real people support someone who at last in public life has real principles - a number of nu lab supporters on QT last night we very supportive of Davis
Add in that Brown’s outright denials that any deals will be exposed over the coming months, I cannot see how brown’s brown shirts will gain from this
20. Yes. The commons will have to play ping pong with the Lords over this. In fact I’d have a small charity bet that Brown will have to use the Parliament Act. Its not a manefesto commitment so sailsbury doesn’t apply. The Lords would usually let a Government have its way in the end but
1. This is habeus Corpus not widgets
2. everyone knows a Government with a very healthy 64 majority has had to buy Unionist votes.
If by the time the ping pong between thwe two chambers starts DD is back in the commons with a mandate we only need another 5 labour Mp’s to flip and it goes down. It’ll take Brown with it.
If, and it is an If, Davis plays this right this could be huge.
What of the pre-existing tensions in the shadow cabinet? Presumably they will still be there.
Whether we remember Davis’s cause may depend on whether the police arrest any would-be or actual terrorists and hang on to them for more than 28 days, or some idiot actually blows something up.
BTW just reading last night’s thread.
Is it true that the Government has denied offering Nick Palmer any compensation deal?
OK, so I assume that there will not be an English Democrats candidate in Haltemprice and Howden:
- “The English Democrats wish David Davis well… “
http://tinyurl.com/4qzk2e
I suppose that they are supporting Davis because he has stated his support for a devolved English Parliament in the past (although he has since changed his mind), and is on the English nationalist wing of his party (quite a large, and growing, wing I understand).
http://tinyurl.com/4lfrhx
2 - “3. Because this is a counter inuitive stance for a Tory he can bury deep the “liberal Conservative ” message. It could be the last act in the death of the nasty party. The final curtain on brand decontamination. Every liberal in Britain who may never actually vote Tory would at least not fear a tory government. The effect on tactical unwind could be huge.”
This was somthing that had struck me, if this gamble works out it will represent a very public rejection of what the public percieve as the worst aspects of not just the Conservative party but the ‘right’ in general - not unlike clause 4 for Labour but on a far grander and more immediate scale. ‘If’ it works of course… which is far from certain.
For this type of gesture to succed people would heve to buy into his values not just this single issue. Guardian Readers are desperate for a standard bearer but are unlikely to buy it from pro hanging pro section 28 David Davis. Likewise the ‘Essex taxi Drivers’ but most of them don’t think 42 days is nearly long enough.
It’s a no win situation for Cameron so my guess is he’ll cast him adrift. Make it known the Tories aren’t financing his campaign then just hope politics moves on. His concern must that an illiberal public galvanize around an opponent to his anti 42 day stand-perhaps someone who lost a family member in a bomb which will leave him in a difficult position.
Why Davis is doing it is difficult to know. Favourite has to be personal ambition. He might even think he’ll come out of this leading a new libertarian right like Tony Benn did from the other direction. But it’s equally possible as Tyson suggested yesterday that he’s just a bitter loser who’s fed up with the Eton cabal.
2…very well put and so very right. the future’s bright……….
Published by Conservative Way Forward in 2001:
David Davis, Member of Parliament for Haltemprice and Howden and former Foreign Office Minister of State, argues the case for a referendum on an English parliament:
“An English parliament, on the same basis as the Scottish one, will be the minimum that the English people are likely to be satisfied with.
Anything less will lead to disaffection and discontent, to a belief that the English are being treated as second class citizens in their own land. If Labour wanted to bring about the dissolution of the United Kingdom, that disaffection would be the way to do it.”
http://web.archive.org/web/20040211074600/http://www.conwayfor.org.uk/forward/ff2eng.htm
Very true. So why the has Mr Davis recanted?
‘Davis wants England-only voting’
“[David Davis] pledged England-only votes in the House of Commons - but ruled out a separate English Parliament.
“Only English MPs could vote, let’s say, on English education policies or English health policies,” he said.
The government has been criticised for relying on votes of Scottish MPs to get controversial English laws through.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4424370.stm
If this goes well for Davis he will have done as much damage to the Lib Dem’s medium term prospects in a day as Cameon has in 2.5 years. In fact the whole thing is quasi-Cameroonian as the Cameron approach is to often appeal past the Westminster Consensus, not quite in such dramatic fashion admittedly but Davis is taking a very modernist and direct approach here.
I was surprised nobody made any comments upon the story a week a so ago about Nick Clegg being offered a post in a Cameroon cabinet - Home Secretary!
27 - Roger, i get the impression that you don’t support the Govt on this detention without charge issue…
BTW what is all this stuff about Davis being “frozen out” of the top ranks of the Conservative party recently? If being “frozen out” consists of holding one of the top three and most high profile jobs in the party and being allowed to run policies in that job which are apparently unpopular in the country at large, then a few politicians might settle for that.
30. I don’t doubt that Cameron has appeal outside Westminster.
But at some point he has to put some ‘meat on the bone’. Has David Cameron actually uttered the words “We will repeal the 42-day provisions” yet?
I think DD has behaved instinctively on this. I guess that locally in his constituency he is sick of the slogging trench warefare against the Lib Dems which is so like WWI. This led to the decapitation strategy. That would not have been a problem in 2010 but might have been in 2014 if things weren’t going well for the Tories by then. So, locally I think this destroys that LD narrative and will return his seat into an ubersafe Tory for as long as he wants.
Nationally I agree with Mike the world will move on and I guess DD hasn’t thought about those consequences. However …
The LDs were on a hiding for nothing and so had to dress up a no-stand as an act of principle. But for Labour to do the same is fraught with dangers. Firstly they are saying if Labour didn’t get say 20% in any seat that the Labour candidate is a timewaster. This is not a good narrative for the GE.
Secondly, and I guess this is at the heart of DD’s “strategy”, a no-stand will be at the centre of the debate in the three / four / five times that the 42 day issue HAS to come up in the next 12 months. The argument that the public are wildly in favour of 42 days but GB wouldn’t even put someone up against DD is going to play in the Lords, back in the Commons, back in the Lords inevitable sequence. It really is win/win for DD. If Lab give up, then he has “made” them do it. If Lab lose a vote in the Commons and so give up ditto. If Lab press on then they will continue to haemorrage credibility.
Of course this is a highly unpredictable stategy for DD but it is NOT high risk. Suppose Kelvin Mackensey stands - don’t know how he spells his name haven’t read the Sun since Grammar School. The best he can do is come first amongst the nutter candidates and other medja interests will surely put up their own candidates. He will be lucky to get 15%.
34 - He doesn’t have to it is pretty clear that it will happen.
35 - A nice big debate in H&H would be good, no Labour candidate and you just stick up an empty chair.
1 “but a moderate Labour recovery in the next round of opinion polls is to be expected.” - Remember Smithson’s rule about Cameron and Publicity though. See the Conway Affair.
2. I agree it could help the Tories. Not sure if it will hurt the Lib Dems though. I think Clegg has been as astute as he can.
19. It must have been a reference to the 79 election replay. In that year the SNP did indeed look like a temporary aberration.
32. Of course I don’t but on a scale of one to supporting the invasion of Lebanon invading Iraq un-reclasifying cannabis or getting rid of inheritance tax it doesnt rate a half! It’ll affect too few people to get really worked up about it and though I’m not a fan of the police enough people will be watching them to make sure they don’t take advantage. I always thought a week was enough.
39 - That is a spurious argument really. Ok it may not affect that many people now but that isn’t the point. Bad laws should be opposed because they are bad not on how many people they affect.
39 - But nevertheless you are still perfectly happy offering unconditional backing to the Labour Party because they are not the Tories.
PS. The biggest loser in all this could still be Clegg. Hitching himself to the Davis wagon will I suspect cover him in shit. Rather like Labour did when it took on Digby Jones but much much worse. I can’t see any upside for him at all but maybe I’m missing something?
” It’ll affect too few people to get really worked up about it.” - You wouldn’t mind the death penalty either then.
41. What’s the alternative? I haven’t the time or interest to start my own Party!
Irish Ref.
“Turnout is understood to be somewhere between 40% and 45%.
…
Turnout is believed to have been higher in urban areas than rural areas.”
http://www.independent.ie/breaking-news/national-news/politics/lisbon-referendum-outcome-too-close-to-call-1408115.html
17. ref the euro elections - things will be difficult for the Tories if the Irish result is “yes” today - Cameron is left with the awkward decision about whether to accept the Treaty or not. Actually, he has already more or less said that he will, but the activists and much of the parliamentary party won’t accept it and will sit on their hands or make trouble.
Will the Davis story continue to run? Yes it will, because journalists love political split stories and Davis is the new Heseltine.
42. Labour can’t really criticise the Lib Dems for not standing if they don’t stand themselves.
In politics timing is important and David Davis has shown with this gesture how lucky it was that the Conservatives chose Cameron.
- the news story developing before his announcement was about another Gordon Brown disaster. The loss of secrets on a train and a media going all out to tar Brown for using pork barrel tactics. Brown’s press conference was ill tempered and headlines today would have been poor for the PM and Labour. DD wiped those stories out.
- the Parliamentary battle for 42 days isn’t anywhere near a conclusion. The Lords are expected to reject it and then there would be the inevitable ping-pong leading up to summer recess. Davis had strong allies in Lib Dem and Labour in the Lords and if he really thinks it so important he should have fought this out before making such a gesture. The time for such theatrics would be when Labour threatened the Parliament Act.
43. Of course I would but twelve extra days in detention for a handful of people is a small irritation even for the people affected. Hanging is in a completely different league and what’s more it’s a blight on any country that carries it out which is why I find Davis such an unconvincing standard bearer on matters of justice.
If the news agenda zips along as we know it does in these modern times, yeah, the initial blast of shock will be nothing by 10 July. It will be for David Davis to keep this in the news agenda. He will have a hard job the less likely it appears that this is a serious poll - with no candidates at all from Labour (who of course support the 42 day rule), the likelihood of his chips being urinated upon is very high.
Principled stances like this in British politics are quite rare, as we all know. When swords of truth and shields of fair play are employed, things don’t always work out for the best. I hope David Davis does not live to regret what is, for him, turning out to be his Clapham Common moment of madness…
If Labour do chicken out, then Cameorn will use it to slap Brown about the head with at PMQs.
“Scared of the electorate”
“Doesn’t like votes when he can’t buy them”
“The argument’s so strong they’re frightened to put it”
“Everyone agrees with them, except the voters”
etc etc etc.
46. If you believe as Paul Linford dearly hopes that he will behave as such you are right. But will he? Unlike Hezza he’s had 2 shots already at the Leadership and not get it, and must know others are more likely by a mile to succeed Cameron even with an incident ivolving a Number 32 Bus happening immediately. So personal ambition is out. Even if he had, his golden opportunity was last Summer over Grammar schools but not a peep even off the record. Paul Linford clearly feels the “permanent” appointment of Grieve rules Davis out of the Shadow Cabinet. No it rules him out of Shadow Home Secretary but there are other places.
Recently, Nick Clegg raised questions about the ethics of state schools fingerprinting school children, Brown’s answer was beyond comprehension at the time - almost the wibble, wibble of the Viz character - coupled with some Orwellian nonsense about protecting our freedoms.
Brown’s non answere annoyed me at the time, and it still does - as it was Clegg’s second question - there was no opppotunity at PMQs to put Brown under greater pressure.
49. But why it wouldn’t affect many people would it? Unless you were at the end of a rope it shouldn’t bother you to the extent you’d vote against a Party on it from your moral compass.
49. Ho ho Roger. You are quite happy to condemn people purely on the basis of their occupation and/or supposed ‘class’ background (risible given your own) and yet you demand a genuine standard bearer for ‘justice’. You have no principles at all, just mindless partisanship. Get a life.
55 Harsh, but true.
52. “So personal ambition is out” ?? come on, show me any leading politician who isn’t ambitious. If you interpret the signals then clearly there have been tensions within top conservative circles, it’s just that up to now they have been very disciplined.
48. I detect a restrained fury underneath your measured remarks Ted. Indeed, DD has for now wiped out all the bad stories about Brown.
I would be surprised if the story has any long-term implications. Labour may be glad of a respite, but as the public won’t think this is a Tory split rather than a man doing something on principle they won’t necessarily change their voting intentions.
Possible poll blip, but a blip nonetheless.
The Tanker Driver strike has already knocked him off the Headlines Mike. If it is true that the Labour candidate is also against 42 days then they will both be singing from the same Hymn sheet and that is probably why Labour will not turn up at the fight.
34 At one point Dominic Grieve in his first interview yesterday said that the 42 rule would be axed by a Tory government.
57, the top news story on that well-known pro-Tory (ha) newscaster the BBC today was about a 4 day petrol strike affecting 10% of the UK.
Interpreting the signals sounds somewhat selective. There may have been a dispute between the Davids regarding whether the policy should be set in stone or changeable, but we can’t know that.
During the voting the Tories were rock solid (with the exception of Ann Widdecombe).
In the course of the various Brown-Blair escapades nothing emerged in public, but there was plenty of media briefing. Even Nick Robinson (who was spinning away madly on the news) confessed that there had been no shadow cabinet split or row.
The media are incapable of believing a man will stand on principle, but the public are not. And Labour must fight, and not necessarily win but do well, otherwise Cameron and Davis will hammer them as cowards.
51 - no mileage in that at all from DC at PMQs now that DD has given Gordon a great big bat to hit Dave round the head with. I think DC is now left with boring questions about international aid and such like until the DD fiasco has been forgotten about. It will still be raised by GB and indeed every Labour MP when they want to have a pop at Dave and the Tories. Thanks DD…
Given that DD will be fighting a lonely campaign against a selection of micro-low profile independents and loonies, would it be worse for him to press ahead with his plans and look the biggest chump in recent political history, or back down on the basis that it’s clear Labour won’t play ball so the whole thing is pointless and he’s staying put - thus still looking a chump but not having to endure the embarrassment of the next month?
Harry. I normally wouldn’t answer a post as rude as yours but as it has the endorsement of ‘Poster of the Year’ (who I voted for incidentally!) I think I should. I don’t remember condemning anyone for their background (unless you’re talking about Essex taxi drivers?)and I can’t anyway see why that should prevent me wanting a standard bearer for justice?
Though I’ve been very disappointed with most of the Labour Home Secretaries unlike the Tories they have never appointed one in favour of hanging
60 - don’t mention Grieve. It makes me more depressed! Never did someone have a more appropriate surname…
Davis making a fine case on R4 at the moment; Humphries stuck in the Westminster village.
57 I am in perfect agreement with David Davis on 42 days, on RIPA, on free speech, DNA database and ID cards but cannot understand this Quixotic strategem. DD had gained a lot of credibility and support for the way he accepted Cameron’s victory, against his previous record, and by his strong leadership of the civil rights agenda within a sometimes sceptical party. He has thrown that away, weakened those in the party who supported those beliefs, and let this authoritarian Government off the hook. So yes I am unhappy, not furious.
62, Davis has made the move, he can’t unmake it.
The question now is: will Labour field a candidate?
The idea of electoral cowardice and a contempt for the views of the people will be a massive stick for Cameron to whack Brown with.
Will he take hits in return? Yes, almost certainly.
But what stings the most “You’re a coward who sacrificed British freedom for political gain by buying votes” or “Your home affairs spokesman resigned on principle.”
Because it’s so shocking the media has no idea how to react, and most of them have immediately gone for the most cynical explanation. That might be right, but judging by both Sky and the BBC 99% of people support Davis’ stand.
The BBC review of the press seems pretty spot on:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/7452108.stm
There has clearly been a huge Tory row - and Cameron has lost one of his few non-old-etonians. I
62
I was thinking on much the same lines, that Davis could withdraw his resignation if Labour don’t play. Either way though, he has lost any chance of a cabinet job in a Cameron government and probably in any other Conservative government.
I wouldnt be surprised if he’s now having serious misgivings about what he is doing. Mrs Davis won’t be too pleased either.
Labour not standing should be a perfect bat with which to hit THEM - too cowardly to stand on their own issue, etc.
I cannot read minds,so cannot say if DD is regretting this decision. He needs to keep saying that he is standing on principle - going back on the resignation will look incredibly stupid.
Can I pose a question to PB.Cers thats always bothered me?
The Ministry of Transport, I believe, has a figure for what a road death is worth. And, IIRC, that number is c. £3m. If there is a road improvment that will cost £2m, and will (statistically) save a life, then the improvement is made. If it would cost £4m, then it won’t be. The same is clearly true in the NHS, although the number is probably a little lower (and a lot less public).
Why are we prepared to spend 10s or 100s of millions of pounds to (possibly) save a single life from terrorism? (And to curtail ancient liberties, etc.) Why are those lives worth orders of magnitude more than road death lives, contaminated water lives, etc?
57. Davis was ambitious but he’s also hugely realistic. He had 2 shots at the Leadership. 3 if you count 2003. He may still hope for high office but the Leader’s door never mind the PM#s door is one he will never now reach. He knows that.
68. If there was a row we would surely already have 2nd or 3rd hancd accounts appearing wouldn’t we. None so far. Although it is clear this is Davis’s not Cameron’s wish.
70 - either way, his career is finished. At least Labour’s refusal to participate defeats the whole purpose of forcing a by-election so gives him reason to change his mind. He might be able to salvage something from the wreckage in due course if he doesn’t go through with his hare-brained and ill-conceived scheme.
Why should Labour field a candidate? The Lib Dems wont. There will certainly be a pro 42 day candidate and if the Libs argue that this is the single issue and Davis is representing them then Labour will say the same about the pro 42 day candidate. …..And then everyone will turn away and laugh.
Keep posting Bob. A Tory who isn’t a clone is as rare as a labour loyalist who isn’t a hypocrite.
70 Once he’s taken the Hundred he can’t go back.
74 Thank you !
68. Read your link. Not sure if you were reading it though in terms of your conclusions.
Other than the Sun the press recognise the principle behind this but questions whether politically it was the right approach.
If it is a principled stand, then as the campaign develops and if DD can broaden it out beyond the 42 days to other attacks on freedom by the Brown regime (e.g I.D cards or even Nanny State) then the narrative will soon develop to any anti-Brown / anti-Labour one.
74: I’m not “a Tory” to be fair. Sure, I always vote for them and want to see Cameron as PM sweeping aside this shambles of a Government, but I’m not a member of the Conservative Party, never have been and probably never will.
“In Dublin, the area of Mulhuddart in west Dublin had a turn out in the early 40s. In Walkinstown, turnout was reported to be up to 50 per cent, an hour before the polls close at 10pm.
Skerries in north Dublin had a turnout of about 46 per cent, while Dun Laoghaire in the south of the county had a showing of about 49 per cent by late evening.
In other parts of Leinster, Navan polling stations reported turnout of just over 40 per cent.
However, some parts of the busy commuter town had turnout as low as 20 per cent by late this evening and presiding officers did not expect that to rise by much.
Dundalk, Co Louth also had a turnout in the low 40s. In Letterkenny, a late showing by voters pushed turnout up to about 41 per cent. Turnout in parts of Leitrim also hit the mid-40s.
It was reported the constituency of Limerick East was set to hit a turnout of 50 per cent by closing time at 10pm.
In Taoiseach Brian Cowen’s constituency of Laois-Offaly, turnout was running at between 16 and 25 per cent at lunchtime but was expected to rise.
In some areas, including Waterford, returning officers described turnout as slower than usual for a referendum.”
http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/breaking/2008/0612/breaking2.html?via=me
73 “At least Labour’s refusal to participate defeats the whole purpose of forcing a by-election…”
Bob, how many times do you have to read posts that explain how Labour’s refusal to participate (A GOVERNMENT’S refusal to participate) would damamge them badly on grounds of moral cowadice, before you finally get the point?
I’m sorry. I normally enjoy your postings, but you are getting to sound obessive on David Davis.
Believe me, I want a Conservative victory at the next GE as much as you, but I just don’t share your deep angst.
More inspired brilliance from cartoonist Peter Brookes in The Times:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/cartoon/
“Man leaves intelligence on train” - brilliant!
DD gets 1 days news. Labour will not field a candidate, and this thing fades away.
What Cameron then has his very own Hezza figure, prowling the back benches, courting the rank and file and biding his time.
74 Labour not fielding a candidate would be a godsend as the HoL opponents can say with justification that Labour is too uncertain to defend its case democratically. It provides Cameron, who supported Davis strongly against the more neo-con Shadow Cabinet members, with a stick to beat Brown with.
A Sun backed Kelvin Mackenzie candidacy could prove a blessing as well if Davis did crush him as it would be a Murdoch campaign on behalf of Gordon Brown. However if Kelvin did well then questions about continued Tory opposition to 42 days would arise.
Labour not standing has to be /seen/ as cowardice beyond the Westminster bubble; I hope that either they (or heaven forfend Kelvin MacKenzie) will now stand by their convictons and fight DD on the issue.
A chance for all the “armchair libertarians” to get out and do something? Well done DD!
77. Yes broadening the message is the key to making a success of this, as Yellow Submarine rightly argued at the start of the thread. It should also neutralise the only real risk there is, i.e. of some kind of independent ‘bang ‘em up candidate forever’ candidate standing successfully. It would be amusing indeed to see the likes of ’sir’ Ian Blair or Kelvin Mackenzie [pause for offstage hysterics] trying to defend fingerprinting kids.
The notion that Labour are too broke to fight this by-election is a curious if not surious excuse. If the ‘claims’ of the assorted HMV dogs on TV are to believed, MPs who were seriously ill were wheeled in to the H of C to vote. If one of the Labour MPs did die for The Recess, it would be very surprising if this excuse holds water that the money to fight a by-election could not be found.
49. Roger. “….twelve extra days in detention for a handful of people is a small irritation even for the people affected.”
What twelve days are these then? The twelve days of Christmas?
If you are talking about the extension of holding people from 28 days to 42 days, then that is of course FOURTEEN days.
You sound more like a product of Labour’s failed education system than a former pupil of the excellent school that you actually did attend.
83 - can’t see Mackenzie standing given that he would presumably want DD to overthrow DC at some point, so trying to defeat DD even if they do disagree on 42 days doesn’t sound smart to me.
I don’t want to sound obsessive on the DD issue. I’m just angry at him for reacting in such a childish way and threatening to derail the whole Cameron project just as it looked like the Tory Party was cruising to a landslide - something he has played a vital role so far in bringing about.
No amount of Tory spin can make this a good situation.
O/T-I hope that this is not illegal, but engaged in a touch of market ramping on the Ireland vote last night.
Not much liquidity on betfair so shifted the odds significantly down with a little cash to get a bit of downward feel to the market. Sure enough others piled in, odds came down more and I cashed in.
A quick 10% margin was earned on my outlay.
I didn’t say anything- just played the numbers hoping others would follow.
The show of public support for Davis is huge. Every newspaper article has its comments sections swamped with messages of support for Davis. It may not be smart politics in the conventional sense but it wont harm the Tory Party in the long run and may even boost their support.
Compare and contrast with the shabby, shameless, pork-barrel politics of 42 day Brown. Brown just comes out looking like the oddlot liar he most certainly is.
91, I don’t expect this, but it would be hilarious if the next polls showed the Conservative lead growing:p
89. No-one thought Powell’s crusade against immigration was smart politics either but it swung the 1970 election for the Tories.
68. Not sure I agree with that. The only two that are unambiguously hostile are The Sun and The Times - the two Murdoch papers. The rest all seem to take the line that it’s a noble cause but one that has damaged his party and his career. As if that is the most important thing. They are incapable of seeing above that level because within the Village, that is all there is: who is up, who is out, who will be the next minister for widgets, who is briefing against whom. The idea that people might care about more than that, and act on those actions, is so far outside their frame of reference that they’re incapable of dealing with it.
I think the public - much less concerned with the Westminster gossip - does ‘get it’. After all, they’re the ones on the receiving end. Although I think Yellow Sub overstates the case, there is certainly a massive well of resentment at the continual erosion of freedoms, but one which is at the moment quite shallow. People aren’t too concerned until it directly affects them, or people they know, or they feel that it could well do so. At the moment it’s too abstract.
For some reason, I’ve had trouble accessing the spreadbetting markets on the next election (anyone?), but the Betfair odds on largest party and overall majority have barely moved. I think that’s probably right. Davis’ actions may have a short-term impact on Tory fortunes, if only because of the media reporting of it, but I don’t believe that will last. Partly, that’s because I believe the stories of splits in the Tory party are wrong - a disagreement about tactics, but that’s all - and the public will come to see that; partly, it’s because I believe they will back the case. If Labour doesn’t stand, the odds should move against them; Davis is already making a charge of cowardice against Brown if Labour doesn’t stand, one which could well be taken up elsewhere simply because it fits into a whole series of actions of his.
As for his career, firstly, all careers end at some point. The important thing is to do something useful with it. He is at least trying to do that. Secondly, I don’t accept that it’s over. I expect him back in the cabinet / shadow cabinet in the future, certainly no later than after the next election. He is too effective for him not to be there.
I think Kelvin may stand, as it seems increasingly likely that Labour won’t
On the public vs Westminster issue, I think earlier posters are right; the media were desparate (at least the TV media) to paint this as a split. The newspapers are full of members of the public agreeing with him.
When you have Tony Benn, the BNP, The Guardian, the LibDems, and at least one Tory united on the same issue, you know you’re living in unusual times!
Oh the irony of all the lefties supporting Draconion hang em and flog em Sun Editors!! That is how far the Labour Party have come….
96. Well Mussolini and Hitler started their political careers as supposed ’socialists’, didn’t they?
94 Excellent analysis I think. I also think think see 72 that he knows whatever the future holds the Leadership will never be amongst it now. I reckon though he could well be back before the election say as Justice Secretary with Herbert shuffled to another post.
Can I get a bet on Davis being the next shadow/home secretary?
95- Liam- I love Preston. Great city.
I think you are right- will not harm the Tories at all.
All the same DD is still an unhinged maverick with an ego the size of the Tory party who cannot bear the Notting Hill set, and is simmering with bitterness that he lost his rightful place. After all he stood aside for Howard.
That said I like DD. Have said it many times on here. And at some point in the future, in their hour of need the Tory party will come to him on their knees.
My belief is that the press have a totally different agenda to the public. I do not believe that they are currently thinking ‘Tories in turmoil’ at all as the press are stating.
Think about it, what reason would there be in this story for people to suddenly declare that Gordon Brown and his Labour party are alright afterall and they’ll made a terrible mistake by saying they’ll be voting Tory next time?
This is an important point. Look at the Mirror, they lay into the Conservatives day-after-day mostly on class war ‘toff’ issues and big up Labour. Does it alter people’s opinion or voting intention?
Never, ever, underestimate the public for making their own minds up on an issue. DD will get repsect regardless of whether people agree or disagree with him. It’s the sort of respect that Brown just hasn’t got and will never get now.
There is an element of surprise and shock as this is a Tory MP. It’s normally Labour MP’s who ‘take a stand’ pubically out of ‘principal’…
I think the press have misread the public mood and any headlines in the next few weeks will not speak of ‘turmoil’… not concerning the Tories in anycase.
Letts having fun at Brown’s expense:
Repeatedly Mr Brown claimed that ‘no deal’ had been done with any MP to secure votes on 42 days. Does anyone - anyone - believe believe him?
‘There was no deals,’ he barked again, weirdly ungrammatical, lifting his chin and staring down his nose. The vote had been won by ‘the strength of the argument’. People actually laughed out loud at this absurd claim.
He proceeded to accuse journalists of not taking terrorism seriously. I’m afraid this was too much for me and I told him he was making a disgusting allegation.
Point of information: He admitted that civil servants were not present at all the meetings ministers held with MPs on Wednesday. So we have to take his word - trust this man, who once criticised Blair’s ’sofa’ government - that no piggy little deals were done.
Some of us consoled ourselves during the slippery Blair years with the thought that when Mr Brown became PM he would restore a sense of truth to our public life.
100. You seem to be projecting your own peculiar and obsessive class prejudices on to David Davis. He deserves better than that, methinks.
101. It’s ‘principle’, not ‘principal’!!! Given that it is so important, can we please spell it right!!
Mrs Dale says MacKenzie has “confirmed” he is standing.
89. Firstly, I don’t believe Davis’ actions have de-railed the ‘Cameron project’. It has strengthened the case that the Conservatives are in favour of individuals and against excessive state interference. Cameron backs him on policy, and backs his personal crusade, even if he disagrees with the tactics. The only way it has upset the ‘project’ is by grabbing a few headlines.
But there is a more important point, and that is that holding office for its own sake is less important than campaigning for what is right, and if defending ancient civil liberties isn’t right then I don’t know what is. So what if this has a marginal effect on ‘the project’. One of the reasons this Labour government has fallen to such lows is because it doesn’t appear to believe in anything and is *only* concerned with tactical matters and wrong-footing the other parties. Parties need people with principles and beliefs.
105. What a joke. I hope he loses his deposit.
The Mole says Labour is not standing. What is the situation.
101 - looking at the BBC’s “Have Your Say” about this suggests you’re right
A lot of people are posting on there praising Davis (I’m not a Tory but… is a regular start to a pro-DD post). It will be very interesting to see how this plays with the public longer term
102. Diane Abbott confirmed several times last night that deals were done.
Incidentally, Brown claims that the public is on his side over 42 day detention so that implies that does look at the polls for guidance on important issues like fighting terrorism but not when it comes to calling an election.
After mulling yesterday’s events over I am strongly tempted to back David Davis to be leader of the conservatives before long and will have further discussions this morning.
Right, Davis makes a stand, resigns as an MP then seeks re election as an MP, voters return him as very decent fellow with an increased majority, Davis then becomes a danger to Cameron, next election Davis as Conservative Leader could win the next election, Cameron the inexperienced boy becomes history.
Who said there are sincere and honest politicians, as my old mate Nick P would say, the mind boggles.
So, 108, the ‘People’s Party’ is happy to deprive potential supporters of the chance to express their backing for them?
Sounds all of a piece to the creeping totalitarianism they’ve unleashed on this country and which DD’s move serves to highlight.
2. I’m with you man. This is not disaster the headless chickens in the Westminster village would have you believe!
Can Gordon Brown really hide behind Kelvin Mcenzies skirt and Murdochs money? I want to see The Sun put in their place once and for all, as much as the next man, but I just can’t see this happening. In the end, it MUST be Labour that stands up for Labour policies, musn’t it?
104. I’m glad you glossed over the mis-spelling of “publically”.
Here are remaining results from last night’s byelections
Glos CC Brockworth LibDem gain from Residents
LibDem 1040 Con 751 Lab 175
2005 result Res 1169 Con 1035 Lab 948 LibDem 456 Green 209
Waltham Forest LBC Forest LibDem hold
LibDem 977 Lab 927 Con 507 Green 209 Left List 56
2006 result LibDem 1504/1490/1268 Lab 1289/1159/1029 Green 534 Con 508/413/398
East Sussex CC Bexhill King Offa Con hold
Con 2825 LibDem 1191 Lab 518
2005 result Con 4398/3435 LibDem 3427/3419 Lab 3386
Rother DC Bexhill Collington Con hold
Con 893 LibDem 216 Lab 78
2007 result Com 1159/1158 LibDem 497
Flintshire CC Hope LibDem gain from Ind
LibDem 480 Ind 275
2004 result Ind 445 Ind 424
Results posted last night were Oxford Holywell LibDem hold , Harlow Harlow Common Con gain from Lab ,Carlisle Upperby 2 x Labour holds
Exclusive: Davis secures support of the Daily Mash.
First of all, ‘This is f**king great!’
As someone who sees politics as a spectator sport, I can’t get enough of this.
If you’d have told me twenty years ago that Kelvin Mackenzie would be standing (I hope so) against a right wing Tory (?) over the issue of whether the government should be banging up suspected terrorists, (Lets be honest tinted people) for 42 days, I’d have thought you were a candidate for the funny farm.
More!!!!!
113 I look forward to the tv pictures of Roger and Nick P campaigning alongside Kelvin McKenzie in Yorkshire- a couple of topless page 3 girls carrying a picture of Davis’ head in a lightbulb. What has happened to the world?
As much as I admire David Davis (and voted for him in the 05 leadership contest) I think this was a personally noble but politcally naive move simply because it wasn’t needed. Nevertheless, the agenda will move on quickly. The attention from this is a short term headache for the Conservatives but it is hardly going to detract from Labour’s longer term issues.
Can anybody explain why the betting on the Irish Referendum is clearly indicating a YES vote when most of the evidence from polls and pundits’ analyses shows it is too close to call?
http://uk.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUKL1163265720080613?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0
117 - come on Kelvin then. Secure Cameron’s leadership of the Tory Party once and for all by ousting Davis from Parliament.
Go on, you know you want to…
112. Quite - they’d apparently rather hide behind a crank former newspaper editor or some distressed relative of a terrorism victim. Sickening cowardice.
108,112 It will be interesting to see how long it takes Gordon to make up his mind about this one, and whether he sticks to his decision once announced. On past form he’ll announce Labour isn’t standing and then, under pressure from all sides, change his mind about 5 minutes before nominations close.
121, Cameron is in no danger whatsoever from Davis, for at elast the foreseeable future. Davis is older, was defeated in a direct contest with Cameron and he (Cameron) has led the Tories back from the brink to enormous and sustained poll leads.
119 - but it does throw the spotlight on the Conservative leadership. Its well known that Osbourne was in favour of 42 days and Cameron only gave lukewarm support to DD as he feared that he would be placing himself “out of step” with the public. Clearly DD feared that a Cameron government would not repeal 42 days and he has concluded he has nothing to lose, as a Home Secretaryship in such a position would mean precious little towards ending the attack on civil liberties we now face.
It throws into sharp relief that, once again, the real split in politics now is between Authoritarians and Liberals, and that the current party alignments are either side of this fault line.
105. That’s good news for the Tories. If Labour don’t stand, the government’s view will be put by a vaguely likeable oaf with a crass line in populism - a cracking journalist but a terrible public speaker.
Kelvin, bless him, will inevitably start sounding off in some offensive way about gypsies or something - and Davis will look noble and Burkean in comparison, and the Tories will romp home while the minority of White Van Men maybe vote Mackenzie.
Cue extreme Labour discomfort as this sows seeds of serious disquiet in the Guardianistas. Cue a vast switch of wavering but thoughtful Lib Demmers, over to the Tories. Labour might console themselves that they will gain white working class switchers but these people are now instinctively anti-Labour - cause of the economy and immigration.
AS I said before, this Davis Gamble is potentially big all round. There are nasty downsides for the Tories. But the potential risks for Labour are, potentially, even bigger.
Especially if they don’t stand.
126 the government’s view will be put by a vaguely likeable oaf with a crass line in populism - Why are you standing? Sorry couldn’t resist.
122. Harry and wasn’t our dear Kelvin a recent (losing) candidate in the council elections, standing on platform opposed to ‘Fascist’, jumped-up jobsworths imposing totalitarian car-parking rules at his local railway station?
And now here he is creeping out of the woodwork on His Master’s instructions to battle for locking up innocent people for 42 days (and longer if he thinks fit).
Maybe, the greatest service DD can do here is to demolish, once and for all, Murdoch and his acolytes’ malign influence here.
126 - Sorry my inner pedant can’t help pointing out that potential risks are always potential and so saying so twice in the same sentence is somewhat surplus to requirements.
126 “Kelvin, bless him, will inevitably start sounding off in some offensive way about gypsies or something” You mean the ones on Tessa Jowells lawn?
126 - “But the potential risks for Labour are, potentially, even bigger. Especially if they don’t stand.”
You read nothing into the fact that the assessment of most professional politicians, especially those with a vested interest (ie Labour ones), clearly disagree that it would be riskier not to stand? It’s almost as if you think repeating this over and over might actually goad them into standing!
120 — At least we know that there is no exit polls.
All of those flailing around saying ‘oh this is all a tory internal squabble’ or ‘he’s mad’ or some such are looking pretty pathetic this morning.
What has become clear is that this is a man taking a principled stand with no policy difference with his party but a very clear one on tactics. If only the government allowed independent thought without trying to bribe it out of them, Cameron may not like it but letting Davis make a stand makes Cameron look much better, by showing that he, at least, does not try and bribe to get his own way.
It is pretty funny watching the media, it’s akin to watching a robot blow up when asked to complete an unknown task. They’ve been pretty badly shown up, unable to respond outside of their own bubble of certainty.
Labour will announce they are standing today, they really have no alternative now, especially as they dared to criticise the lib dems for not standing, when they are doing so out of support. The only way that labour cannot stand, in that case, is if they admit they agree with Davis.
115. Oxford Holywell ward
June 2008 Lib Dem 188 (40.4%) Con 112 (24.1%) Lab 93 (20%) Green 72 (15.5%)
May 2008 Lib Dem 481 (44.9%) Con 239 (22.3%) Green 196 (18.3%) Lab 144 (13.4%)
So very little change on a greatly reduced turnout. A win would have given Labour control of the council, but despite increasing their vote share they’ve still got a long way to go to win back student support.
19.”RodCrosby said in a post yesterday: “Worsthorne: “SNP were a temporary aberration..””
Stuart, Rod was w