The PB Countdown to the General Election
July 4th, 2008
Highlands and Islands: (7 seats)
Scotland underwent changes to its Westminster constituencies between 2001 and 2005 when the number of seats was reduced from 72 to 59. Holyrood still operates on the pre 2005 boundaries but has 73 constituencies due to Orkney and Shetland being separated into 2 constituencies. Scotland has 32 single tier local authorities. I would expect the 4 main parties to go into the election with the following shares of vote in Scotland: SNP 30-35%, LAB 30-35%, CON 20-25%, LD 10-15% i.e the SNP and Labour roughly neck and neck.
In the Highlands and Islands reference to the local authority results in 2007 is meaningless because 4 of the 6 councils are dominated by Independents and as such although most people assume Independent councillors tend to be closet Cons, it is far from the case that this applies to the majority of them.
Orkney and Shetland: (LD) a seat safely held in both 2005 and 2007 and Alistair Carmichael was the LibDem Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland at Westminster so I expect it to remain LibDem but with a majority nearer 20% than the 37% he achieved in 2005.
Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles): (SNP) has swung strongly back to SNP from Labour and Angus MacNeil (he of Labour “Cash for Peerages” fame) is very popular so expect the SNP majority to increase.
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross: (LD) my home seat and the first to return a hereditary peer in the modern age but if John Thurso faces a serious challenge from the SNP, it’s a LibDem meltdown so I expect a hold but with a much smaller majority.
Ross, Skye and Lochaber: (LD) since Charles Kennedy took the old seat of Ross and Cromarty from the Tory energy minister Hamish Gray in the shock of the 1983 election, he has made this a rock solid LibDem seat and the addition of his home turf of Lochaber pushed it out of sight for anyone else until he decides to retire.
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey: (LD) won back from Labour in 2005, Danny Alexander is not a great performer in contrast to the SNP’s Fergus Ewing at Holyrood. Once Scotland’s only 4-way marginal this is really now likely to be an SNP-LibDem dogfight and I expect the SNP to take this in 2010 unless Alex Salmond has become public enemy No 1.
Argyll: (LD) a seat which has been Cons, SNP and LibDem in past 30 years and now a 3-way marginal. LibDems should lose but to whom, probably SNP but to Cons if David Cameron makes an impression in Scotland. I still expect all 3 parties to be within 10% and Labour a long way behind in 4th. The council election results in 2005 for Argyll and Bute showed LibDems down 1 seat, Cons up 1 seat, SNP tripling their seats from 3 to 10. In the Holyrood seat, a swing of over 9% from LibDems to SNP saw them take the seat from the LibDems by a majority of 815 or 2.8% In 3rd place, the Cons vote hardly moved.
Moray: (SNP) a real see-saw seat between Cons and SNP but now moving to safe SNP and should be an easy SNP hold. In 2007 at Holyrood, Richard Lochhead (Margaret Ewing’s successor) drove his vote up by over 7% to almost 50%. He had a technical swing of 3.5% from Cons even though the Cons vote actually increased by almost 2% and the extra votes came from a 4% fall in Labour’s vote. Labour managed 2nd place in 2005 but 2010 should see normal business resumed with a rise in the SNP majority and the Cons candidate easily second again.
A guest slot by Mark Sutherland-Fisker (aka Easterross)
Note from Mike Smithson This is the first part of what will be a regular Friday afternoon feature on PB - a look forward to the general election. Mostly it will consist of guest slots examining different areas or regions but there will also be articles on more general issues.
Saturdays and Sundays As from this weekend I am hoping to change my seven day a week commitment to the site to a five day one so I won’t be posting or regularly monitoring the site at weekends. This will all be in the capable hands of Paul Maggs (Double Carpet) and MORUS.
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Mark, not John, Sutherland-Fisher.
OT Boris
Ray Lewis now toast, what an idiot.
re 1. Mark is how he want to be presented
2. Link ?
2 how so?
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-mayor/article-23508286-details/Boris+Johnson%27s+deputy+%27misled+public%27/article.do
And the ever excellent AG has this.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-mayor/article-23508152-details/A+beacon+of+hope+and+a+fight+for+survival/article.do
So, SNP gain one [or two] from the Lib Dems, with the Cons in with a sniff of the second SNP gain.
guest slot by John Sutherland-Fisker - Shurely Shome mishtake?
Didn’t Robert Waller do this all on video some time ago?
“Countdown to the General Election” !!!!!!!!!!!
Only 700+ days to go !!!!!!!!!!!
……………………………
Thanks Easterross for the thread. Excellent to note the true SNP winning in your seat - Scottish Nobles Party.
155. “Was that a Freudian slip, Socrates, or an intentional double entendre?”
If only I were so skilled with language. I make all sorts of linguistic mistakes on here from writing too quickly, typing a post in short stints as I respond to other windows, or by reformulating half-way through with a dodgy cut-and-paste job. Alas, usually it happens as I deliver my killer point in a debate with SeanT, pathetically undermining it.
Pretty predictable stuff with little analysis from Tory cheerleader Easterross.
I expect the fact that there are no Tory councillors on Highland council - despite STV voting is the real reason why the results are dismissed.
For the more discerning pbers the political make up of Highland Council shows a strong Lib Dem presence:
Independent Group (30), Liberal Democrats (20), SNP (17), Labour (7) and Independent Members Group (6).
Given Fergus Ewing isn’t standing against Danny Alexander - the comparison is futile (and moot).
Both Inverness and Argyll will remain marginal Lib Dem/SNP battles - but the prospect of Tory gains are almost as ridiculous here as they are in Glasgow (where at least the Tories can elcted on to the Council).
To save your readers from bothering to read next week’s article here are my prediction for Easterross’s predictions for the NE of Scotland.
Banff and Buchan - SNP hold
Gordon - SNP gain
Aberdeen North - SNP gain
Aberdeen South - Con gain
West Aberdeenshire - Con gain.
It’s nonsense. What next Mike? Asking ‘Ave It to write authoritatively on Labour’s prospects in Herts and Essex. It would be about as meaningful.
Bring back Sean Fear!
10, yes, for 18 Doughty Street, in the Election Battlegrounds series … I’m not sure if these are still accessible, I did find them on the internet a few weeks ago.
For what it’s worth, I agree with most of the above, but would tip the LDs to hold Inverness, if for no other reason that incumbents build up their position in their second contest, especially Liberal Democrats. In fact, I think all of these Highlands/Islands seats will be fairly comfortable “no change”, unless something dramatic happens in the next two years (including retirements). Mind, I do always offer a bow to superior local knowledge, as long as it is not partisan.
A very skewed look at things I would say. I would imagine that both the Tories & Lib Dems would be in the 15-20% area & probably both closer to 20 than 15, especially as the Lib Dems will have a better Scottish leader. I also expect the SNP to be at least 5% behind Labour.
Can’t see how you can say that the Carmichael lead would go down that much (look what happened in the two Scottish parliamentary constituencies last year) or John Thurso’s & as for Danny Alexander, I find him one of the most impressive young MPs in the Commons. Now he’s in he’ll be very hard to shift. A & B is potentialy dicey but I really think you’re overstating a Lib Dem collapse in the Highlands of all places.
John Mark Sutherland-Fisher?
Former solicitor?
LOL @ 13!
13- Dan
Your outburst seems strangely out of place.
As far as I can see, the article did not predict any Con gain.
As I read it, it predicts LD losses to SNP. It pisses you off because you support the LDs. That does not make you a member of the mysterious “more discering pbers” and certainly does not give you the rigt to insult the author of this article.
13.
“‘Ave It to write authoritatively on Labour’s prospects in Herts and Essex.”
Opening a brothel in Hemel Hempsted? That’s why I said: “Bring back Robert Waller.”
O/T. Someone should phone all the MPs up one wet Wednesday in the autumn and tell them that the MP whose Westminster office has the best Thames view has died. We could have a pb.com sweepstake on who rings up first for the office and whether they beat Keith Vaz’s 2 day record.
There seems to be a lot of attacks on Easterross from LD posters. Do they not see the polls listing the slump in the LD support in Scotland?
Disraeli- from the previous thread-
I am so impressed about your ability to interrogate this system. My first sighting of a live badger, otter, seal, dolphin, whale have been some of the most exhilarating experiences of my life. I have a particular soft spot for badgers though.
18.
So Chris from Paris is another Tory with reading problems?
“LibDems should lose …. to Cons if David Cameron makes an impression in Scotland.”
Bring back Robert Waller!
22 Disraeli- I am even more impressed by your memory though to remember such obscure posts
20. Polls are polls now. We’re talking about probably two years away when the LDs will have a bedded in new Scottish leader & when UK issues will be to the fore. If we Lib Dems to great stock by polls this far out from the election everytime we’d have given up & gone home on more than one occasion.
18 I agree. Argyll is the only seat where he says a Conservative gain is possible, but he tips the SNP to take it.
21 I was lucky enough to once live quite close to a bank that was teeming with badgers. I’d sometimes come across them at dusk.
Democrats are still gaining membership in PA, with 47,000 new members since the primary. Republicans were hoping there would instead be a movement in the other direction, as some of the 310,000 new Democrats who signed up to vote in the primary went back to the GOP. This has not materialised, as GOP numbers have actually dropped by 2,000.
http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/cityregion/s_575362.html
Barring an Obama collapse, it looks like it will be extremely tough for McCain to take Pennsylvania. As I’ve said before, Ohio and Michigan will be the deciding factors if this is a close elction.
19,22: my goodness, a fan club! (of one!!)
This is a new experience for me. As my late boss at Harris polls was wont to say, “try anything once except for incest and folk dancing”.
Thanks, Wage Slave, I’m here. I’m here!
22 But I see nothing outrageous about suggesting the three parties will be close in Argyll.
22. You missed out the “probably to the SNP” part, indicating he thinks the impression by David Cameron is a big if.
25.
Ah, sean, so Chameleon making an impression in Scotland is only ‘possible’ in you book. Realism rules!!
22- wage slave
Chris (from Paris) is neutral in British politics, thank you very much.
I may not know how to read, but at least you could use the exactt quote “probably SNP but to Cons if David Cameron makes an impression in Scotland”. So I read it as a probable SNP victory, the Tory gain being an alternative, less probable.
Bring back non-moronic Lib Dems!
27 You’ll get your own Facebook Group by the year 2030 at this rate.
Mark Sutherland-Fisker
Thanks for going to the trouble of writing the article and I look forward to the rest.
Alas the LD folk (apart from Mike) seem in denial about the reality of their electoral position.
29.
sean f makes it a ‘big if’. Easterross makes it just a (quite possible) ‘if’.
30 I think it’s clear that Conservative support hasn’t risen as strongly in Scotland as it has South of the Border.
34- Stop digging
To correct a minor factual error - Labour came third Moray in 2005; having placed second in 2001.
Of course, I’m lead to believe that Labour’s candidate for Moray is an especially handsome and brilliant individual who’ll doubtless confound all expectations and romp home to victory*.
*yes, I’m talking about myself
27.
“try anything once except for incest and folk dancing”
and never, NEVER combine the two!!
32, I may even get my own Wikipedia entry (like “Jack W”!), instead of being confused with that schmaltzy American novelist. At his peak, I was always getting copies of ‘The Bridges of Madison County’ to sign from the Ladies Luncheon Circle of Northern Iowa.
What’s Facebook?!
Robert Waller, when you did your GE forecasts what share of the GB vote did you base it on?
36.
Confucius say when Tories cannot distinguish a spade from a shovel, don’t give a fork.
38, I have tried one of those (in fact I’ve tried quite a lot of things once).
The ‘Gay Gordons’ was useful research for the Grampian section of the Almanac.
That’s my story, anyway.
37.
“I’m talking about myself
”
Isn’t this the first requirement of a future Labour leader?
41- Lao Tzeu said when a moron begins to call Tory anone who disagrees with him, c
41- Lao Tzeu said when a moron begins to call Tory anone who disagrees with him, just ignore him
39 As a psephologist care to make a Glasgow east prediction.
I may be getting old [and if this comment has already been posted] but…:
The next review of Scottish seats will see a [welcome] reduction to 51 (at Westminster). Or is this just The Economist fuelling my fantasies…?
40, I don’t really do forecasts, certainly not a long time before an election, unless the seats are really pretty much safe. If you mean the post above about Highlands and Islands, I would also say that I have always felt that the national LD share is less of an indicator of their seat numbers than the two biggest parties. My best current guess therefore is they’d hold most of their present seats on anything from 12 or 13% upwards, but it’s more of a ‘what’s my best guess if forced to make one at the moment’ than a firm prediction.
I prefer to say as on Election Battlegrounds that if this or that seat falls, then that tends to mean a certain outcome; or vice versa, if the Conservatives, say, were to win an overall majority then seat x or y would be likely to fall. I think forecasting is a bit of a mug’s game.
Who knows what the shares will be at the next general election?
Mike
I really think this is not what Political Betting needs. We can all read, post and get annoyed/deslighted by the seat analysis in Anthony Well’s Seat Predictor, but regional analysis is too close to all of us and Easterross is seriously overegging Tory prospects in this part of Scotland.
45.
Rab C Nesbit says: “The bastard that stick wi’ t Tories sink wi’ Tories.”
But actually your analysis of Easterross’ remarks is plain wrong. He predicted the Lib Dem loss to the Tories to be the likeliest outcome if Cameron impresses in Scotland. How are we independent readers
meant to deduce from his article alone that the probability of such a strange development is less than 50 per cent? I think I have seen elsewhere the suggestion that Cameron was already making such an impression. Clearly madness from your perspective so it could not have been here.
I think a lot of posters have failed to grasp how fundamentally different the next election will be to any that has gone before. This is particularly the case in Scotland, where the rise of the SNP as a governing force, attracting support from nationalists across the right/left spectrum, and the similtaneous GB-wide erosion of support for a Labour Government, will inevitably lead to greater volatility.
To put that in practical terms, I think the Lib Dem seats in the North of Scotland are more vulnerable than a predictable UNS, or current polling, would suggest.
(I should caveat the above - if only to preserve myself from being eaten by Dan - by saying that I think on a GB wide basis I expect Lib Dem net losses to be at the lower end of current predictions - perhaps no more than ten)
Can’t see anything wrong about people posting their views in such leaders, it’s not as though people expect pb to give authoritative conclusions, just openings for debate.
One thing that was missed though, usually party affiliation is flagged up next to the article writer’s name. This is what makes their views understandable in context.
48.
“Who knows what the shares will be at the next general election?”
Rik !!
‘Ave it !!!
Martin Day!!!!!
25 - I can imagine all those worried badgers teeming to get their life savings from Northern Rock.
46, I think I did post on that one, Punter.
I said that the SNP have a very decent chance of a gain as at Glasgow Govan in 1973 and 1988, though both times Labour regained it at the next general (and indeed in Feb 74 formed a government!); not much reason to vote Labour in a by-election at the moment, I’d have thought. Like Crewe, like Henley, it wouldn’t say very much about two years’ time.
The big problem Labour has, though, is that it does look like the economy is set ill for those two years at least. The interesting figures in polls are not the voting intention in a hypothetical GE, but those on economic confidence, both in the respondent’s own circumstances, and in the parties. These numbers, which change much more slowly than the surface froth, are very bad for the government.
50. Dearie me.
prob·a·bly (prb-bl)
adv.
Most likely; presumably; in all likelihood or probability
Each of those definitions says at least a 50% chance. Thus the clause “LibDems should lose but to whom, probably SNP…” suggests the SNP have a greater than 50% chance of winning it (and indeed that’s on the condition of the original “should” holding). As probabilities must add up to unity, that means the Conservatives have a less then 50% chance of holding it.
It’s not rocket science.
56. Should say “winning” not “holding” in the second last sentence.
50 – You could declare your party affiliation for those that don’t already know it, make your own predictions on the future G.E. and for the benefit of pb.c, explain clearly and succinctly why you do so.
Or continue acting like a tit?
54. True - they are presumably Newcastle fans judging from their kit.
Mike
I really think this is not what Political Betting needs. We can all read, post and get annoyed/deslighted by the seat analysis in Anthony Well’s Seat Predictor, but regional analysis is too close to all of us and Easterross is seriously overegging Tory prospects in this part of Scotland.
by A Voice from Lothian July 4th, 2008 at 6:27 pm
-
Is he? I thought he only mentioned one possible Tory gain in a 3 way fight. Hardly sweeping the board is it.
58 - The name ‘Wage Slave’ should be an indicator as to being to the left of anything the main parties have to offer I would have thought.
55 “decent chance” - Yes well we know that but come on where’s your money going if the gun was to your head now? SNP or Labour….
On Guido! Someone has posted that Boris is to make a statement on BBC Radio London re Lewis soon!!
Easterross - Excellent stuff. I make a special point of reading your posts.
Odds on Lewis still being Deputy Mayor this time tomorrow.
Hmmm at this rate of firing, Boris won’t have any staff left by this time next week!!
Any word on Labour’s candidate at Glasgow East yet? I gather Gordon’s ring-arounds weren’t having much success in persudading the great and the good of Glasgow politics to stand. Why do ou think that might be - even with the Prime Minister personally inviting them to board the gravy train?
21 “My first sighting of a live badger, otter, seal, dolphin, whale have been some of the most exhilarating experiences of my life.”
Agree with that sentiment. Once had a truly wild pine marten (none of these peanut-butter sandwich show-offs) come up to within five feet of me! A capercaillie once zoomed in front of the car, then sat briefly on a hawthorn before flying up to perch on a telegraph post just by the A9. Oh, and a pair of otters sitting within twenty feet of me for an hour once. Glancing upwards for no particular reason, in time to see an osprey plunging feet-first into a loch and emerging with a fish. And watching a white-tailed eagle, flipping onto its back and putting a massive claw above it to see off a buzzard - that was a bit special too. These delights stay with me - and (on topic!) were all in the Highlands and Islands.
66 you are bill oddie and i claim my 5 euros
Well a good start LDs seem to be sure of 3 out of 7 - If this was replicated over the country as a whole then ….
Socrates to your question at the end of the last thread, where a court is deciding a case on legislation or common law which is similar on both sides of Hadrian’s Wall, an English decision of a Higher court would be persuasive in Scotland. I am not sure that the same principle applies in England on a Scottish decision of the Court of Session. The one court whose decisions are binding on both sides of the border are those of the House of Lords which is the highest domestic court of appeal in both countries.
As for my predictions, they are my guess 2 years out and I have told you the basis upon which I have made them. In Highland the LibDems did get a councillor elected in all but 1 ward which was very commendable but given that I voted LibDem for the first and probably only time in my life as well as Consevative and SNP to ensure I did my best to get the former independent councillors elected. In my ward within weeks of the election Cllr Richard Durham defected to the Independents from the LibDems citing the authoritarian attitude of the group which he could not tolerate.
Within the past week we have seen the SNP-Independent coalition collapse because the SNP were fed up with the Independents constantly changing their minds. We now have an Independent-LibDem-Lab coaliion and we shall see how long that lasts.
In Inverness of course Danny Alexander will not face Fergus Ewing, one is a LibDem MP with no clout and the other is a Minister in the Scottish Government. Unsurprisingly I spend a great deal of my time in Inverness and the other parts of that Westminster constituency. Many people in the business community I know like Danny Alexander but few rate him as a politician.
A major employer in the constituency I know sought his assistance with a matter of great importance to them. He was about as useful as a chocolate teapot. Although a reserved area of Government, the company then sought the intervention of Fergus Ewing. Within 1 week of him writing to the London Government department, 2 senior civil servants had arranged with the Inverness company’s Managing Director to fly up to attend a meeting with him. I was at the meeting which lasted for almost 3 hours and during the meeting Fergus Ewing elicited 3 apologies from the more senior civil servant for the incompetent manner in which his department had handled the initial enquiry. The SNP can expect to get the votes of all the employees in that company because Fergus Ewing’s intervention made a difference! I have heard similar stories from a number of company owners.
Obviously much will depend on events between now and 2010 but when I first wrote my predictions a month ago, we have lost Wendy Alexander and Nicol Stephen and Labour has plummeted in the polls finishing 5th in Henley. In addition no-one is dismissing the prospect of the SNP taking Glasgow East.
Anyone who regularly looks at Martin Baxter’s website Electoral Calculus will know that for most of the past 9 months, he has been predicting that the LibDems will lose Argyll and more recently Inverness, both currently to the SNP but often Argyll to the Tories. I would have thought that after the SNP took Argyll and Bute from the LibDems and came first in the Regional vote in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross and in Ross, Skye and Inverness West as well as holding Inverness, Moray and taking the Western Isles from Labour, the LibDem PBers might for once just assume a little modesty and indicate they HOPE to retain the 2 seats I have identified as possible losses.
The fact that the rabid LibDemers on PB are attacking me so far in advance of an election tells me they are running scared. They say their new leader will be well bedded in before the election. Will that be Nicol Stephen’s successor or Nick Clegg’s successor or indeed will it be the successor of the successor. A party which has had 3 leaders in as many years, particularly having knifed the best of them in the back, should learn the meaning of the word “humility”. We Scottish Tories had to learn that lesson in 1987 and 1997. I don’t make wild claims of Tory gains anywhere in Scotland. But let’s see what happens in the next 24 months.
And for any of you getting terribly excited, yes I am
John Mark Sutherland-Fisher. I revealed my identity on here days after becoming a regular poster unlike almost all the LibDemers who hide behind their profile names. Yes I was a solicitor and yes I was struck off in 2003 having been falsely accused of embezzlement in 1997 for which I was kept locked up for 11 nights while the police ransacked my house and offices. For those of you interested in balance and truth, after 1 month of the third attempt by the Crown Office to prosecute me I was ACQUITTED on what we call in Scots Law a “no case to answer plea” which means that when the Crown abandoned its case, my QC successfully argued that as no evidence had been produced which could lead to a conviction, the case could not even go before the jury. The Crown did not oppose that motion. I was however bankrupted and lost my career receiving no compensation for the six figure assets which had been confiscated.
So now you all know my history and any of you who want to go and snigger like 5 year olds are welcome to do so!
66 I think it may be Glasgow Cllr George Ryan - his name keeps getting mentioned quite a lot.
Ray Lewis resigns.
69 - look forward to reading more articles.
*** RAY LEWIS RESIGNS ***
56.
“It’s not rocket science”
No Socrates, I have done rocket science. It’s pretty boring actually, which is why the Chinese will get the first man to Mars.
I commenced defending Dan against Chris’ (false) attack on him him for suggesting that Easterross was predicting a Tory gain(s). Dan actually criticised the author for PREDICTING a very different thing (the slightest PROSPECT of a Tory gain in this region).
Socrates then (deliberately?) confuses present and future. Easterross’ analysis for Argyll & Bute consists of a PRESENT prediction (SNP win) and a variable parameter which he says will alter this prediction: he does not speculate upon the probability of the weird idea that Cameron will impress Scots but leaves this to the reader.
73.
“RAY LEWIS RESIGNS
To spend more time with other people’s families? Oh no, that was Boris’ territory wasn’t it?
And to think, people like this have got the vote:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/7489457.stm
69, no comment on the article (as a Yorkshireman I have bugger all knowledge of the places to which you refer), just want to extend my sympathies.
69.
“Anyone who regularly looks at Martin Baxter’s website Electoral Calculus”
Sad Anoraks Club? Baxter will not be a million miles away overall in a GE but he’s useless on individual seats. Mystic Meg would be better.
re 47 Scotland is about right now it’s the Welsh who are hugely over-represented and will be until 2020. It’s a scandal that the Boundary Commission for Wales hasn’t put this right this time.
75, yawn.
Yes. Unlike the ascetic Saint Kenneth “Abstinence” Livingstone, who, like his father before him, swore never to engage in rumpy-pumpy.
76, sometimes there are powerful arguments against Evolution. These sorts of thickos should’ve become extinct long ago.
BBC, Tim Donovan: “Immensely damaging to Boris Johnson”
69. Yeah mate whatever. Quoting Baxter, the regional SP vote (which is largely regarded as a second preference vote) & having a go at us for getting rid of an alcoholic as a leader makes your comments about as useful as the chocolate teapot that you’re so fond of. It’s a shame as I thought you well informed until now, my mistake.
My username is the same for all political sites, I have been to a pb.com get together saying who I am openly. I do not hide behind my username (as I doubt any other poster, except Jack W, does on here) it is merely who I am on-line.
69. Thanks for the judicial information. Extremely interesting.
Bring back
Sean Fear !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
81 He (and you) are utterly predictable in making that observation.
Hope it doesn’t stop Lewis continuing to do his good community work.
Channel4 news led on the Lewis resignation. A senior Tory was quoted as saying, ‘Lewis was very much Boris’s appointment’ by this time tomorrow it’ll be, ‘Boris who?’
From hero to zero in 9 weeks, still with another 3years and 10months to go, I’m sure there’ll be a lot more fun.
By the way if any of you watched Declan Currie on Breakfast TV last week on his tour of the UK with the powerboat championship, you would have seen the dolphins “showing off” at Chanonry Point which is about 15 miles from where I am sitting as the crow flies.
In my grounds I have 7 pairs of breeding herons, buzzards, falcons, barn owls, bats, roe deer, foxes, hedgehogs, hares and rabbits, toads and frogs, pheasants and partridges. If I walk across 3 fields to the Moray Firth I can watch seals and dolphins and sometimes basking sharks and the odd whale.
We also have one of the lowest average annual rainfalls in the UK and we have only had 4 days rain in the past 6 weeks.
Welcome to the Highlands
After Lee Jasper and now Lewis, I wouldn’t blame the black community for thinking that people in the media and those close to the wheels of power were trying to tell them something.
85.
I thought, till I saw the author was gabble, that this was yet another Tory rant against the (Tory-riddled) BBC.
re 69 Easterross sorry to hear about your troubles. My former partner was once falsely accused of child abuse and being a vicar, and a gay one at that, the police went completely over the top and we had the house ransacked from top to bottom (including under the carpets) starting at 7 in the morning and didn’t get the computers back for months. All it took was someone whom the police had arrested on suspiscion of burgling the vicarage - which happened annoyingly often - saying that he’d seen some child p - orn whilst doing his burgling and the police’s priorities completely changed. He never got over it and as a result left the priesthood.
So if all of you think that “if you’ve done nothing wrong you’ve got nothing to fear” think again when slavishly supporting the latest new Labour reduction in civil liberty.
87.
“We also have one of the lowest average annual rainfalls ”
I think the lowest is Jaywick near Clacton on Sea, which has now been labelled as the third-most-deprived area of England. NALOPKT.
90.
“My former partner was once falsely accused of child abuse and being a vicar”
I am sympathetic - these things transcend politics - but watch out for lost commas!
OT: quite tired, so was going to skip Any Questions, but it’s got David Davis and that slimy pustule Bradshaw on, so I think I may listen after all.
Also on is Susan Kramer and Nigel Farage.
Easterross very interesting piece and i would agree with most of what you say. The Scottish scene is very interesting due to the national players being active there but the insurgent SNP creates a new dynamic thay creates a whole new dynamic on the next GE.
It is often saud that the LD’s hold a sort of “Blocking” role on a tory majority government. The SNP and it’s recent success may well cause a Labour block on a governing majority assuming the recent dire Labour polls have been just mid-term blues. Scotland may well play a Bloc-quebic type role seen in canadian politics with the SNP taking the role of the block!
O/T The Ray Lewis thing, paradoxically this maybe a good thing for th tories - Why? The allegations seem sketchy at the moment and they keep on bringing images of a Black man on the telly and mentioned the tories reaching out to minorities. I don’t live in London so do not know the exposure ray has had to the electorate but as he is not an elected official i do not subscribe to the view that this is some sort of hammer blow to Johnson - The mayor personally has not acted in a way that is seen to be undignifying of the office. Further more lets remember Ken had people who had to resign because of alleged mistimenors in office were as the alleged activities of Ray occured before office.
If one thing can be concluded from this politics it is the Tories will be hounded from day one in office with accusations of sleaze. It is the lefts only weapon, the Tories need to strategically position themselves in such a way as to insulate themseleves from future media witchunts induced by a defeated left. The left can do what it wants in power but once they are out the finger will point - no doubt about it!
87 You are a very lucky man (and not only because you have thrown Labour out of power!). I have been to every continent, travelled in many countries, but Scotland is still one of the finest spots on the planet and I’ll fight anyone who says otherwise! (Although it is the west coast that truly moves me - and I don’t mind some rain, it gives more power to the landscape!)
74. He didn’t make any differentiation of time frames that you’re talking about - not one qualifying factor. If he had said “if David Cameron fails to make an impression, probably SNP” then you would have a case but he didn’t. He said “probably SNP”, without qualification, and then only mentioned the “if” as the remainder chance for a Tory win.
93.
“Any Questions, ..’s got David Davis”
Isn’t there something in the BBC’s charter about being grossly biased in by-elections?
Oh my God, I’ve just seen this. It’s quite sad
http://parburypolitica.wordpress.com/2008/07/04/helen-clark/
97, yes, it says if the government’s too spineless to put up a candidate it loses the right to whine about it.
Following the Ten O’clock Hatchet Job on Davis (apparently nobody asked in the constituency sees the point or intends to vote, and Cameron visiting is a sign of discord) it’s laughable (as many of your posts are) that you consider the BBC biased towards Davis.
You aren’t Ed Balls, are you?
Easterross
Enjoyed the article and look forward to more.
82 Khunanup its sad that you dismiss so quickly the leader who took your party to its highest point of success in more than 70 years and from which your party is now likely to advance in reverse.
I have known Charles Kennedy since 1978. He was a heavy drinker in 1978. As far as I am aware he has been a relatively heavy drinker for most of the intervening 30 years. It didnt stop him achieving the most spectaular gain in the country in 1983, a loss which after 25 years the Tories in the north of Scotland are still coming to terms with. It didn’t stop people, presumably including yourself electing him leader in succession to PAddy Ashdown and I do not for a minute believe his drinking in the years since 1997 was any heavier than it was in the preceding 20 years.
You may all think Nick Clegg is wonderful but I suspect both the Tory and Labour parties are far less afraid of a LibDem party led by a lightweight like Nick Clegg rather than the former world debating champion and only LibDem that most of the electorate can name without prompting, Charles Kennedy.
98 - was she the MP for Peterborough?
96.
Socrates, at least your inability to read matches your grasp of statistics.
Confucius say: when Tories cannot distinguish a spade from a shovel, don’t give a fork.
88
What as the colour of your skin got to do with it? The fact that Jasper/Lewis are black is irrelevant.
The problem here is a familiar one, politicians grabbing at anything or anybody who makes them look good, or offers them a solution.
The biggest conman to ever con politicians was John DeLorean, why ‘cos he promised a government, (Labour) a solution to unemployment in N.I. so grateful were they, they’d didn’t even enquire if the whole plan was feasable.
As far as Lewis was concerned, perhaps a little time checking out his background might have been a good idea.
104 - “88
What as the colour of your skin got to do with it? The fact that Jasper/Lewis are black is irrelevant. ”
Your perception off by 180 degrees again I see. Perception is king, Jasper followed by Lewis, BNP types will be cock a hoop.
Serious question: is there any evidence of how the SNP rise and LD fall is reflected in different areas of Scotland
On the face of it, FPTP isn’t too bad for the LibDems in Scotland and many of LD seats appear “safe”. But I find it very difficult to superimpsoe a LD vote share halving and SNP vote share soaring onto the electoral map.
On the face of it, I assume that much of the SNP gain has been at the expense of the LibDems and thus disproprtionately big in e.g. Inverness. But that’s just a hunch.
Very interesting article Easterross, and I agree about the SNP’s chances in Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey. The SNP have got a very motivated team of activists in parts of that Constituency and they really fancy their chances there in the next GE.
101.
“I do not for a minute believe his drinking in the years since 1997 was any heavier”
If you believe that after reflection, you are as far of your trolley as CK has been off the wagon. The Lib Dem result in 2005 owed a lot to others besides CK: some think there could have been a lot more gains without the CK blunders. Personally I’m none-too sure it would have affected too much.
A drunk can be a decent guy.
Addicts are always incompetent at some time but not always or in all ways.
103. When all else fails, play the man and not the ball?
109.
Nay lad, to do that you first have to find a man!
106 - for all the facts and figures on Scottish Elections you should Professor Old’s site
http://www.scottishpolitics.org/
Can I echo the comments @77.
There are some total prats on this site but this lot are at least impotent.
98. I don’t have sound but it just looked like an emotional person remenstrating!
People who are MP’s or have been are only human - If you want to be an MP, you must always bare in mind your percieved view of being normal may well not be shared by those around you!
Many people say to me i would be a Boris Johnston, nay Neil kinnock figure!
With that type of personality one must be aware that you will never be given a decent media profile - this national treasure decided to become a rare collectors piece: viewed by private invitation only!
105
Right, it is irrelevant in the sense, that white people are just as liable to do bad stupid thing as black people, if people believe anything different than that, then they are frankly stupid.
It maybe relevant in that the present Conservative Party leadership is so concerned to shake of its past, (A past where a member of the Cheltenham Conservative Party could oppose John Taylor as their candidate because as he put it, ‘I don’t want to be represented by a f***ing nigger’ and even worse was supported by other members who claimed he was excercising his right to free speech etc) that they may be a little lax in checking out people who are from an ethnic minority background.
99.
I am to Ed Balls as you are to Helen Clarke.
94. Boll*cks I wish I had spell checked that! It looks like the policeman from allo allo wrote it!
114 - Whoosh, straight over your head.
106 Archibald
“But I find it very difficult to superimpsoe a LD vote share halving and SNP vote share soaring onto the electoral map.”
I agree. Surely it must hit the LibDems somewhere.
114. I think your last point is right on the money. And it’s a shame, because bringing minority candidates into politics without the same checks means, as a group they are more likely to be part of these stories. That in turn harms all the good aspiring politicians of that background due to the unfair prejudice it can cause.
I just don’t know why Easterross’s level-headed article has attracted so much ire. He thinks the Conservatives have a chance (but that’s all) of winning one out of the seven seats he’s mentioned. He thinks two Lib Dem seats are vulnerable to the SNP. Pretty unexceptionable, IMHO.
BTW, I am sorry to hear of your problems. Did you apply to be reinstated as a solicitor, given your acquittal?
Andrea, what was all that about? She does seem in a pretty bad way. I now regret having made fun of her on this site.
Re: 101 - Let me first say many thanks for your article, Easterross. You have put across your view on these seats, you are much closer (geographically and in every other sense I expect) to them than me and I fully respect your opinion.
You have made it clear you are a Conservative supporter but that, to me, doesn’t mean you can’t write objectively about these seats and I take your predictions on that basis.
I can understand your frustration at Dan’s comments which did seem unnecessarily hostile but you do sound off a fair bit about the LDs and enjoy the odd snipe or ten. As for Nick Clegg, I’m quite happy with his performance as leader at this time. It takes a lot of time for the third party leader to get into the public consciousness and we’ll see how Nick is getting on after the GE in the same way as we shall see how David Cameron deals with the choppier waters of Government.
Perhaps we should all stop chucking words like “rabid” around if we want to inject some sense into the debate and my real name is Peter as PB partygoers will know but if we had another Peter on here it would seem like a job lot so “Stodge” it is !!
114. I actually think that there is some low politics in this: the fact the guy is black and served in a tory admissistration has made him a target i am afraid: A target from the right (*Ni**er haters*) and a target of the left (Tory haters)- indeed the left may well be instigating this as it ceils off any Tory move into the Black vote. Lets face facts not many Black people vote Tory compared to Labour - If the Tories made inroads into this vote it would prove more than useful in their electoral strategy.
119 I think it’s a sad story, since, whatever his past, he’s done some good work.
119.
“without the same checks ”
Like they had for Shirly Porter…. Jeffrey Archer… Jonathan Aitken?
Peter Mandelson? Mark Oaten? Boris Johnson?
John Reid? David Blunkett? Peter Hain?
Jeremy Thorpe? Tony Blair? John Prescott?
Careers very chequered. Glad they were checked.
And all those Tory EuroMPs? Oh no, that was the same CHEQUES!!
Re: 98 - First time I heard this, I thought it was the New Zealand Prime Minister….
122.
It had to happen sometime. I agree with Martin Day!
106, Archibald the evidence is that the SNP are taking votes from all 3 other main parties and from the minor parties in different parts of the country.
Until 1987, traditionally the SNP took seats from the Tories and the Tories won them back a few years later. This included seats like North Perthshire, Moray, Angus,Banff and Buchan, Argyll and Galloway. They also swapped seats with Labour like the Western Isles and Dundee East. They had the odd sensational by-election win like Hamilton and Govan but tended to lose them back to Labour at the next election.
Between 1987 and 1997 the SNP widened its appeal but didnt extend its electoral success. It was the creation of the Scottish Parliament which has led to its major advances. Ironically the LibDems and Labour argued that creating a SCottish Parliamentwould lance the SNP boil. The Tories always thought this was a ludicrous argument and so it is proving to be.
The SNP is taking votes from the LibDems in the Highlands and Islands and in the Borders. The SNP has taken votes from the Tories in Tayside, Fife and Central Scotland. The big breakthrough was last year where the SNP secured tens of thousands of straight switchers from Labour in Central Scotland to secure seats like Govan, Kilmarnock and Central Fife (which when held by the late Willie Hamilton was once virtually Labour’s safest seat in SCotland).
Last year in the SCottish Parliament the SNP also successfully attracted the second votes which in 2003 went to the Greens and SCottish Socialists all but wiping out the parliamentary representation of both except for 2 Greens. Its easy for LibDems to dismiss the regional vote as a second preference vote but in 2011 they will probably be desperate for lots of them in order not to lose many MSPs.
As my 7 other regional views are unveiled over the next few weeks you will see where I believe all 4 major parties could take seats from each other (except from the Tories who only have 1 seat right now).
Interesting article, but I don’t think any serious poll has put the Tories above 20% in Scotland.
Inverness looks likely to stay Lib to me with a double first time incumbency bonus for Alexander. His gain from Labour in 2005 looks to have been made possible by huge SNP tactical voting, which would surely only reverse if Alexander is a useless or mendacious MP, which AFAIK he isn’t.
Argyll & Bute is the SNP’s best outside chance of a gain, but a long shot because of a solid Tory vote. Nonetheless, it probably remains the best chance in Scotland of a LD loss, albeit a remote one.
Apart from A&B, I’d be quite surprised if any seats in this region changed hands.
120. “She does seem in a pretty bad way. I now regret having made fun of her on this site.”
Me too now!
120. Unfortunatly, LD’s don’t take kindly to any reasonable assesement of their prospects even in a couple of seats. Age and intellect seem to govern the LD response - Mike Smithson is usually open minded, SBS too is level headed when one makes less then supportive LD comments - Some people and i will not name names become personally and treat it like a battle to the death in a local by-election campaign! Whilst there identification and party support is admimable the way they advocate their message is not!
128 I’d have thought Berwickshire & Roxburgh would be the likeliest Lib Dem loss in Scotland?
18 - I’m sorry if what I say goes against the ever increasing group think on here.
Easterross’s article is shallow, wishful thinking based on opinion poll figures pulled out of the air. He specifically excludes on the ground psephological evidence from the local elections (held on the same day as the Scottish Parliament if you remember).
I haven’t insulted the author of the article - merely suggested this article is as one-eyed as his normal posts where he regularly refers to the Lab Dims - the sort of juvenile insults that Ave It and some of the other more excitable Tory posters (and Stuart Dickson) are happy to throw around.
There’s no attempt of objective analysis (even through a partisan filter) - it’s the first time a blatantly partisan poster has been given a platform on this site - and it’s another nail in pb.c’s reputation for objectivity.
122 Found this on Tory Home:
‘Ice cold baby. Ice cold.
Delete it if you like. But remember this. We stuffed yas on this one.
Posted by: The Mighty Labour Party | July 04, 2008 at 19:08
111 Marcia, as Mike Smithson will testify, in my original article which has now been broken up into 8 chunks, I make clear that along with Martin Baxter, I use Iain Old’s site for reference purposes particularly for statistics.
I occasionally exchange emails and thoughts with Prof Old who I think is brilliant and his series of articles on WEndy Alexander are just brilliant and very very funny. Everyone should look at the SCottish Alba website. Sorry I should rephrase that, everyone except those few LibDems on PB who don’t accept anything could be correct unless it predicts total victory for them at all future elections.
124 I was watching me ‘ol box set of, ‘The Pallisers’ how things haven’t changed. There is a character, ‘Frederick Lopez’ a highly dubious and shady character who slides into the, ‘Pallisers Set.’
It is noticeable that some of the, ‘Less than honest’ characters are Jews or people with foreign names.
Prejudice is always with us, sometimes we feel it, despite ourselves.
132 Grossly unfair. We all view these things through our own political prism. I am sure that pb.ers are more than capable of seeing through the spin/bias/prejudice of posters and making our own minds up. Easterross has been a welcome addition to the site in my opinion.
127.
“except from the Tories who only have 1 seat right now”
Not totally beyond the SNP from fourth place if you look at the Holyrood election results.
132 If you don’t apreciate your comments were insulting you have spent too much time on Lib Dem by election campaigns.
132.
“another nail in pb.c’s reputation for objectivity.”
OTT (in otherwise balanced posting)
135 Trollope’s most despicable characters are almost invariably Jews, or people from the Southern Mediterranean. “Swarthy sons of Judah” is one of his more charming epithets.
139 - Since when was pb supposed to be objective, did I not attend that caucus meeting or something?
124. Whatever the poor policies or outright corruption of many of the names you mentioned, it’s hard to find items in their pre-politics lives that would have been as obvious as being on the Lambeth list.
134.
“everyone except those few LibDems on PB who don’t accept anything could be correct unless it predicts total victory for them at all future elections.”
You are heading for ‘ave it mode. Not a tad exaggerated?. Name one such poster or place one such prediction. Harder still, try this one:
Reel off for us five definitive ‘different to Gordon’ policies of the Chameleons. “We will be a better (ie more divisive and destructive) Tory Party than Gordy’s Scottish rubbish bunch,” does not count.” You will get two marks if you write: “f**** I hav’na clew.”
Re: 134 - Once again, a jibe at the LDs, Easterross, and quite unnecessary. My view has long been that the party will win 35-40 seats next time. Now, I don’t pretend to know which seats will stand and fall but logic suggests those where the Conservatives are the main challenger are the most likely casualties.
I don’t know enough about Scottish politics on comment on SNP-LD marginals but clearly you do.
Oh and another thing wrong with this article is there is no appreciation of the significantly different boundaries for the often similarly named seat.
For example Argyll and Bute at Westminster level contains Helensburgh (in Dunbartonshire West at Holyrood) - the two seats with the name Inverness in them have very different boundaries. I’d have thought these would have been a pretty basic element in any objective analysis.
Charlie Crist just got engaged (again). The most cited problem with him as McCain’s veep choice was that he was unmarried and possibly gay.
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/blogs/content/shared-blogs/palmbeach/floridapolitics/entries/2008/07/03/crists_fifth_engagement.html
Easterross’s article is shallow, wishful thinking
Think you deserve him an apology given your later remarks:
I haven’t insulted the author of the article
I admit that i am less than PC on these pages but apart from when MS and I exchange “words” I try not to make it personal! Any post about LD prospects on a GE should be taken as a compliment - CK made the LD’s potential players.
142.
“it’s hard to find items in their pre-politics lives that would have been as obvious as being on the Lambeth list.”
I hadn’t got to Ted Knight’s mates! Things going on in Boston Ma. and Eire make me non-too sure about little lists kept by bishops but I take your drift.
135/140 the Reverend Emilius turns out to be Jacob Melius from Galicia (Trollope reserved especial hatred for Jews who converted to Christianity - who he saw as infiltrators) and everyone (including the author) is delighted when he gets sentenced to ten years (!) for bigamy.
145. Why don’t you write up your own objective analysis and send it in? Mike is always looking for articles.
133. I doubt that’s really written by anyone in the labour party.
This is a very bad tempered thread.
Being outside London the Ray Lewis thing is not really registering.
Has he been found guilty of anything. Being on the ‘Lambeth list’ doesn’t neccessarily mean much according to this:
This list includes the names of clergy added by the Archbishops ‘on the recommendation of diocesan bishops.’ By definition their ‘offences’ are not covered by the Measure’. They are simply there because their diocesan bishop has chosen to put them there. Such ‘offences’ can include a dispute with the bishop about the parsonage house; or a complaint made against a chaplain by a third party; or even, in one recent case, taking part in media coverage of a claim to have been unfairly dismissed. Those who are listed are informed of the fact, but are given no hearing at which to protest their innocence or interpretation of events. Nor is there a right of appeal, only the right to ‘make representations if they consider their name should be removed from the list
147.
One man’s “harsh but accurate criticism