Canada heads for an October election
August 31st, 2008Will Canadian Liberals benefit from the Obama buzz?
A guest article by Jack Peterson
This week, the eyes of the free world will shift from Denver, where Morus has been keeping tabs on the Democrats for PB, to the Twin Cities of Minneapolis-St Paul, where John McCain will accept the Republican nomination and try to distance himself from President Bush. However, political punters would be well advised to keep an eye on events a few hundred miles to the north, where Canada stands on the brink of an election call.
Having survived a series of confidence votes, the minority Conservative government of Stephen Harper, in office since February 2006, seems set to dissolve parliament and take its record – of cutting the federal sales tax, taking tough stands against inner-city crime, and extending Canada’s Afghan mission – to the country. Monday 20th October has been mooted as a possible election date.
Liberal leader Stéphane Dion, a francophone former academic, has made notable moves to burnish his party’s centre-left credentials since taking over in December 2006. Last November he launched a poverty plan designed to cut child poverty by 50% over the course of a Liberal government, and this May he outlined proposals for a national carbon tax – taking his case for action on the environment into the Conservative oil heartland of Alberta in an impressive act of political courage (or recklessness).
However, whilst Stephen Harper’s net approval rating of –10% suggests that the government is eminently beatable, Dion’s rating continues to plummet almost as quickly as Gordon Brown’s, reaching –50% in the most recent Angus Reid poll. Overall, the Liberals and Conservatives stand neck-and-neck, with even Stephen Harper predicting that the election will result in another minority government – and few Liberals are confident enough to believe that their party will wrest back power.
The fascinating thing about Canadian politics is that national trends are by themselves an inadequate indicator of party performance, with party fortunes differing widely between regions and provinces – especially when energy and the environment become major campaign issues. Poll data on the excellent Paulitics blog suggests that the Liberals have bolstered their position in their Ontario and Atlantic Canada strongholds since the January 2006 election, making it harder for the Conservatives to win a majority, but have failed to dent the Conservatives’ lead in British Columbia and the Prairies.
In Quebec, the Liberals will look to regain seats from the separatist Bloc Quebecois in Montreal, but the Conservatives are the stronger challengers to the Bloc in most of the rest of the province. To the left of the Liberals, the NDP secured over 17% of the nationwide vote and 29 seats in January 2006, and it will also be interesting to see whether the Green Party’s poll surge in the relatively liberal provinces of Ontario and British Columbia (to 11-12% in each province) can be sustained, and turned into seats on election day under the first-past-the-post voting system.
There is also the Obama factor. Will Dion’s Liberals benefit from having an articulate and charismatic young Democrat make the case for liberalism and an active federal government south of the border? Or will Obama’s star quality make Dion’s scholarly and slightly patrician manner look tired and uninteresting by comparison?
The invaluable Election Prediction Project offers a seat-by-seat breakdown of party prospects, with input from local activists. As far as I know there are no betting markets open on the Canadian political scene at the moment, but it’s worth watching for future developments.
Jack Peterson is a regular poster on PB and will be keeping an eye on Canada as the autumn political season unfolds.
Other useful weblinks:
Canadian politics and the 2006 election from Wikipedia
Detailed 2006 results from CBC and Elections Canada
International opinion polls from Angus Reid and the latest prices from Bestbetting
MessageSpace Advertising
Congratulations Mike! the words fascinating and Canada in the same sentence, gotta be a first.
Hang on! what happened to Pierre Trudeau, did I miss something?
All we need are some markets on this one. there might be a picking or two.
Quite honestly, Canada leaves me cold. No pun intended.
Great article - I was amused by this: Dion’s rating continues to plummet almost as quickly as Gordon Brown’s, reaching –50%
To be honest i think Obama will have nill affect North of the US border.
Those rating’s are interesting, think that should break it for the Canadian Tories - better the devil you know………
Sorry to go off topic so early but I’ve just posted this on the previous thread.
re 291 The critical thing is is whether the mainstream media pick it up. I can see the angle being on how thorough was McCain’s vetting?
Palin’s emergence has been so speedy that it could become a negative for McCain.
Palin, of course, is not the nominee yet and there must just be a chance that she is replaced.
Maybe Ladbrokes should have waited for final confirmation before paying out. The Betfair market is still open and I’ve just laid Palin at 1.01
Blimey I see that the last Canadian election was held on 23rd January - and we worry about people not turning out here in November. Large chunks of the country would have been permanently dark and metres deep in snow.
re 6 Mike you’ve persuaded me and I’ve risked a fiver for the chance of £500.
Lucky old Canada - an October election. Can we have one too? Pretty please?
6. If any main -media pick up and publish this, I can see Palin’s lawer’s issuing lawsuits by the dozen. Is PB covered?
But what if it’s true?
re 6 and another four hundred quid just matched
Not a single seat predicted to change hands in that Election Prediction Project thingy…
I suppose it could change…
The Liberal looks a muppet, with dual citizenship to boot..
Forecast: Tories win seats from the Liberals, Liberals gain some from Bloc..
@10:
Then Sarah Palin is the most inept politician that has ever lived.
Let’s just take it as read that it’s an embarassingly desperate libel from Daily Kos, that has lost all sense of perspective since they smelled the danger that Palin poses to their beloved ball of gas.
Sorry, Mike, but I feel this is just mudraking conjecture that’s really quite pathetic. Just as the Obama muslim smear and the Michelle Obama ‘racial slur’ stories were crude and pathetic ways of attempting to put a negative spin on a candidate the opposing supporters were scared of.
Its impact will be exactly nil. As someone on the previous thread said, are we to really think Palin is so stupid as to have her daughter photographed with her, pregnant, if she wanted to cover this up?
Ridiculous and absurd story and it does no-one any credit to get involved in it IMHO.
If anyone wants to know more about the upcoming election in Canada this website is pretty good for a constituency by constituency guide.
http://www.electionprediction.org/2007_fed/index.php
I would think another Conservative minority is on the cards. I can’t see the Liberals picking up seats in Western Canada whereas the Tories still seem unable to pick up seats in and around Toronto or improve their performance in the Maritimes.
6 Mike, this Palin story was bouncing around in Alaska before the VP pick. Planet sized if, but if there is any truth to this story, then Palin might not be the only one off the ticket. Given the millions he has spent to date on his campaign, I’d be surprised if “Flying Man” Romney hasn’t got a team of the finest PI’s money can buy crawling all over this. I understand he didn’t take the news well!
6,11 That was me! Surely someone said to her: “Right, cards on the table, is there anything and I mean anything about which you need to tell us?” Good spot Mike btw.
6. I just went to bet on palin 1 minute ago, at Betfair but there is now no price on Palin. What gives Mikw?
14. you say the impact will be nil, but 10% of americans do think that obama is a muslim.
People need to pay attention to Canada…it has lots of oil….
One side issue from Hurricane Gustav, apart from the short tern affect on oil is the issue of US enbergy independence and whether, if Gustav does seriously mess up production in the Gulf of Mexico that the debate over drilling in Alaska becomes less conetentious.
By the way where does Congress stand on Alaska drilling at the moment, given both candidates seem to be in favour?
18 There’s currently £3,780 available to sell at 1.02
6.
Your personal views/ political sentiment setting in again! CNN and none of the other main news agencies have mentioned it; I should imagine 24-48 hours would be enough for the newshounds to investigate it and prove it’s validity.
To be honest i think it is pretty sick that a story involving a handicapped child only a few months old and another minor has found it’s way on to the internet.
As you said when Obama failed to pick HRC, Obama does not deserve to win and people putting this out in his name nails that on! Obama’s vision of hope disapates by nut’s on the internet for the most disgusting explotation of children i have ever heard.
re 18 you can now back Palin on Betfair again.
19, And hes ahead in the polls and they woudlnt have voted for him anyway. Impact of the allegation about Obama, nil.
19. Good point.
I still don’t see this as anything but a disgusting smear that isn’t going to get high prominence. And if it does, I don’t think many are going use it to form a highly negative opinion of Palin -I expect most voters will be very turned off what is very much a conspiracy theory that, rather disgustingly, involves a politician’s children.
18 WC Are you sure you’re looking on Betfair’s Republican VP market?
Re 14 I am looking at this solely as a gambler. A little bit of uncertainty has entered the equation and a small punt at an effective 100/1 seems reasonable value,
AVE IT!
27., I cant argue with that. I made a fair amount on the day of Edwards wife announcing she had cancer because I was convinced that there was no way she was going to tell him nto to keep going, never mind what Edwards himself wanted.
Sometimes we bet on misery, but to be honest in this case, I think its more an unlikely than like story and you may have done your money. We shall see though.
C’est la Vie.
Regarding this Palin ‘bombshell’, I think the Daily Kos has been watching too much Desperate Housewives because this is lifted straight from that show. Republican matron Bree Van der Kamp’s 16 year old daughter became pregnant so her mother staged a pregnancy and passed the child off as her own only to be blackmailed over it.
This might be libelling Palin and ABC might want their plotlines back.
I guess the Democrats need something to stop that ‘God sent hurricane’ video blowing up in their faces (as it rightly should).
re 27 people seem to be reluctant to take the £421 which is available to back at 1.01
26. Thanx Peter. This time found the odds, and yes I was looking at the right VP market. But to bet 100 to win 5; that’s not for me.
14 Matt, people said the same about the “Edwards baby” rumours. If he had been the Dems candidate, I reckon that story would be breaking …just…about…NOW! Which would have thrown a huge rock into the election puddle.
This is primarily a betting site (although also a fine meeting place for those who don’t). The art of clever gambling is taking a view in the light of all information. Some of that information will be low grade. But it is better to be aware of it and then weight it in your betting accordingly. Some folks will give it zero credence. Some may want to cover an exposure just in case the smoke leads to fire.
Palin has, for most Americans, been produced like a rabbit out of a hat. They know very little about her. Much of what they do know revolves around her views on a woman’s right and duties in relation to giving birth. As low as this story may be, it is no lower than the swift-boating of Kerry - it is a function of modern US presidential politics. Kerry’s strength - his record for valour in war - was trashed. I don’t know if there was any merit in it. Personally, I think it was done in a despicable way by despicable people. But it probably cost him the election. If you are going to bet on the US election over here (or vote if you are in the US) this stuff is a factor.
You think the whole thing sullies this site. It is a fair position to take. But it is for Mike to close it down as a topic - if he thinks it is gratuitous and irrelevent.
Are these Canadian so-called ‘liberals’ the same ones who include supporters of torture such as Michael Ignatief?
re 33 weathercock you have it the wrong way round. You would lay Palin for £100 meaning that if she is not the nomination you would win your £100, if she is chosen then you’ve lost two quid. Not as good odds as 20 mins ago but still seems worth a punt to me.
i think what we can safely if this was the other way around, the republicans would use this smear very effectly. indeed, look at how bush’s team (now mccain’s team ironically) trashed mccain in 2000 with those slurs in south carolina.
STEPHEN v STÉPHANE
Very clear that Stephen Harper MP & PM calculates that Canadian Tories can win at least another minority and possibly a majority against split opposition, esp. as Stéphane Dion continues to struggle as leader of the Liberals, and the lefty/labour NDP stuggles to find a raison d’etre, along with the Bloc Quebecoise in la belle province (where separatism seems less likely today than in Scotland).
Last week saw item in Globe & Mail that polling was looking good for Conservatives in Quebec, esp. in Quebec City region. Note that last provincial by-elections in Quebec were postive for Tories and negative for both Liberals and BQ.
Shoring up of Grits (Liberals) in Maritimes makes sense to me; they’ve never been Harper’s kind of turf, nor he their kind of Prime Minister. Opposite is true with respect to Prairie Provinces (esp. Alberta) and (to lesser extent) British Columbia (note that many BC provincial liberals including BC Premier Gordon Campbell have strong ties with Harper’s Tories via the old western Reform Party)
What is the dog that didn’t bark in the posting above? ONTARIO
As always, the electors of Canada’s largest and historically predominate province have the power to determine the next government. Question is, how will the use it?
33 I think most of us are looking at the lay side of the market, i.e. at 1.02, laying £50 for an outlay of £1 or multiples thereof.
36. Thanx Chris. I get it now.
off topic but looking at all the predictions for Hurricane Gustav it seems likely it’s going to be as bad as 2005, with a storm surge at New Orleans of over 20 feet and 10 inches of rain just tomorrow alone.
I think you can filter people by whether they are speculating with their moneyt that its true and those, and Ilm sure that includes some on this very site, who are praying that its true.
I think you can filter people by whether they are speculating with their money that its true and those, and I’m sure that includes some on this very site, who are praying that its true.
Palin - it seems that the recent flurry of activity on Betfair has dried up, at least for now.
*Ignatieff*, sorry.
30. American political muckraking is nothing new, but to drag an innocent disabled baby and a 16 year-old girl into it is nauseating in the extreme…
Not only is this libel, but it may be criminal libel in some states of the US, with penalties of up to 20 years in jail.
http://www.dba-oracle.com/oracle_news/news_states_criminal_libel_web_internet.htm
Mike, be very, very careful…
41 Gustav seems to have lost some of its power over Cuba and now some questions whether it will be quite as vicious as feared - something to do with the upper air atmospherics. However there is still very considerable concern for the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port - “the LOOP”. Katrina hit it, but not with full force. There is a very informative piece here:
http://www.economicpopulist.org/?q=content/gustav-eying-gulf-oil-and-loop
“The loss of the LOOP for an extended period means that 13% of America’s oil import and about a third of our refining capacity will go poof overnight. That’s bound to have some impact on gas prices. And Gustav looks like it will have a much more devastating impact on the LOOP than Katrina did.”
And higher gas prices would hit the Republicans hard in November.
As it is, it woudlnt be the first time a grandparent has taken over the parental duties.
If teh story is true, it could go negative or it could play very positive for Palin.
47 MM- Why would this hit the Republicans particularly?
35 Dion defeated Ignatief for leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada.
Canadian “big L” Liberals are historically so-named because they were adherents of classical Manchester Free Trade anti-Corn Laws liberalism. Saw themselves as Whigs upholding the British constititution against Tory tyranny.
After more than a century as Canada’s “natural party of government” the “Liberals” could indeed be more accurately named the “Corporatist Center Party of Canada” or something similar.
47. Hurricanes do lose power while going over land.
49. Because doubtless Obama can turn water into oil.
48 Perhaps the real story is simply that Palin was just feeding her daughter too much of her notorious moose stew! Expect her to be slammed on DailyKos for poor parenting skills!
49 Because fair or not, governing parties get blamed for rising gas prices - just ask Gordon!
34 Mark “As low as this story may be, it is no lower than the swift-boating of Kerry”
It is far lower, due to the girl. Kerry is an adult.
I didn’t like the swiftboating either, although presumably all is forgiven since the chap (Boone Pickens) who paid for it all was in Denver last week being feted by John Kerry and Nancy Pelosi
Today’s Gallup Tracker:
Obama leads 48-42. Was 49-41 yesterday.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/109903/Gallup-Daily-ObamaBiden-Ticket-Leads-Points.aspx
@53:
To me, the real story is how Palin’s selection seems to have elicited a wave of grotesque misogyny from Camp Obama.
Round about now, they must all be confirming Hillaryites’ worst expectations about what kind of people Obama has surrounded himself with.
Interesting how support for the Canadian Conservatives blossomed during the election campaign *itself* in 2006.
It could happen again…
If it doesn’t, and without a strong showing in Ontario, the Conservatives won’t win a majority, but I’d expect a stronger showing in BC, Quebec and maybe a handful of ultra-marginal gains in Ontario. The Liberals probably won’t lose too much ground in the Maritimes and may even make gains in Quebec, so I’d expect modest gains of +10 ridings taking the Conservative government to around 135 seats.
CON MIN government.
I rather agree with Rod and Martin on this. It’s the sort of story like Elvis being alive and 9/11 being a fake which is presumed to be false unless strong evidence appears to the contrary. Even from the betting viewpoint, it surely needs a bit more evidence to be worth considering, and if it’s just wild speculation then as Rod says it’s unpleasant stuff.
Was reading Cherie’s book about the episode with Peter Foster. Apparently, as he got closer to prison his stories got wilder and wilder, capped with the allegation that Tony was the father of Carole Caplin’s child. Even the Mail and News of the World rolled their eyes and ignored it.
The search term “Sarah Palin Rumour” produced 330,000 results on Google.
58 good analysis and in line with Ave it Worldwide projections…………
57 “a wave of grotesque misogyny from Camp Obama.”
Enlighten us, do.
‘Poll: Cowen’s popularity hits new low
- Lisbon ‘No’ support down by eight per cent as 14 per cent now say they are undecided’
“The only encouraging finding for the Government is a perceptible softening in sentiment towards the Lisbon Treaty. The poll has found that if a referendum were to be held again, 44 per cent would vote ‘No’ — a drop of 8 per cent since our last poll four weeks ago; 42 per cent would vote ‘Yes’, a 1 per cent increase since our last poll; while 14 per cent now say they do not know how they would vote, a 7 per cent increase.”
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/poll-cowens-popularity-hits-new-low-1466488.html
Apparently Palin took sides on a ballot when it’s illegal for her to do so. Comment is this:
Gov. Palin recently came out against Alaska ballot measure 4, a clean water initiative. It is illegal for the governor to take sides on a ballot initiative, but she did anyway, breaking the law. Her Department of Resources web site had an information page that was clearly against measure 4, and they were forced to take it down.
Measure 4 was aimed at stopping the huge Pebble mine project, which scientists believe has a very high probability of polluting the watershed that drains into the largest salmon producing river system in the world, Bristol Bay. Palin’s illegal stand against ballot measure 4, and the millions of dollars of misleading advertising by the two foreign mining companies behind the Pebble, who have a terrible track record of pollution, helped the initiative fail in last Tuesday’s election. The Pebble mine, if allowed to proceed, will likely become Alaska’s worst environmental disaster. The scope of this project is just unbelievable. Even the Juneau Empire (owned by a conservative Georgia newspaper chain) came out in favor of last Tuesday’s ballot measure 4.
in response to:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/08/29/sarah-palin-on-the-enviro_n_122382.html
48 and previous. We should know very soon whether there is any there there with respect to the Palin child/grandchild allegation. Until then wouldn’t touch it with a barge pole.
IF child>grandchild allegations are false (and that’s my personal bet) then it will be to the discredit of blogoshere in general and Daily Kos in particular; plus a small hit against Obama-Biden and a slight win for McCain-Palin. EXCEPT that even the refutation will highlight the untraditional aspects of Gov. Palin’s candidacy. Which in turn could be a good thing for some voters, such as fellow hockey moms and religious conservatives; but a bad thing with many older and/or more traditionalist voters.
IF child>grandchild allegations are true, then there is no good news for the GOP. Because protecting the family will take a back seat to deceiving the voters, first in Alaska and the other 49 states. The coverup is ALWAYS worse than the “crime”.
@62:
You’re not telling me I’m imagining it? That one way or another, all of the panicked smears and attacks the Obama-botherers have unleashed on Palin in the last couple of days have had the foul stench of misogyny about them.
She really brings out Team Obama’s most loathsome characteristics.
48 - I understand what you mean, but I think it would take something of the shine off her.
To be so pro-life, and to be prepared to live your principles, by taking a pregnancy to full term even when you know the child has a serious disability, is something that I’m sure can be respected even by those who are pro-choice.
But, if this gossip (and it is nothing more than that) were true, then it would be a pro-life mother forcing her world view on her daughter, which would have the pro-choice lobby up in arms - “Sarah Palin is anti-choice - and not privately. She is happy to see women forced to have children, even in circumstances of severe disability” or “Sarah Palin believes in abstinence only sex education - how did that work out for Bristol Palin”
I don’t like that two of her children have been dragged into this, and I wish they hadn’t been, but this is much more serious that the Troopergate thing, which I think has been overblown, and sadly could have a huge impact on the effectiveness of McCain’s choice - true or not.
56. so no real immediate big bounce for the palin selection then?
Hands up, who hopes its true?
And for gods sake some people have the balls to admit it.
“The search term “Sarah Palin Rumour” produced 330,000 results on Google.”
“Dirty European Socialist” yields some 6,600. Terrifying, isn’t it?
@69:
I’m guessing ukpaul.
67. Is it her forcing anything though? Again we don’t know.
@70:
And a search for Obama Muslim returns 8.9 million results. So?
70. Obama is a muslim elicits over 200 000
71 - I think you should withdraw that immediately.
59. It’s a lot worse than that, Nick. It is the malicious sexual defamation of a minor, which, as I said, could well be CRIMINAL libel…
*DO NOT TOUCH*
@75:
Oh, I forgot. He doesn’t approve of “going negative” does he?
71. I’d let people speak for themselves.
Today’s Rasmussen:
Obama leads 49-46. Was 49-45 yesterday.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/general_election_match_up_history
I hope it’s true, and I also hope that somewhere there’s film of her saying the universe is only 6000 years old and Harry Potter is satanist propaganda. I can dream, can’t I?
@80:
I hope it’s all true. The baby, the whitey tape, the birth certificate, neither Obama nor McCain being eligible, Joe Biden being a lizard, the lot…
It will make an interesting race.
Another and better look at S. Palin:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/26462569
69 I simply can’t believe that anyone would be THAT ambitious that they would (a) do it in the first place (risking that as an elected official this might come out) and (b) would risk the far higher likelihood of it coming out in the glare of the office of VP.
Or rather, I’d rather not believe that somebody could be that self-centred.
That said, there are some odd elements to this story that has kept it alive. Why did she travel over 10 hours on commercial flights back to Alaska after her waters broke? Then travel a further 45 minutes to a minor hospital, rather than the specialist one in Anchorage? I guess a short staetment from her could clear the air - but that would give it far more publicity. I wonder just how many Americans have even picked upon it being aired yet?
77 - Some time ago, when others noted your propensity to braying arrogance in argument, you had the insight to realise that this was counter-productive, that no offence was intended, and proferred some muted kind of apology. We’re there again.
re 69 I have no feelings either way if it’s true or not. I don’t know the woman, but I will win £500 if she’s not the candidate so will be happy.
Yokel your concern for her seems at odds with your views that Barry George should top himself because that’s all he’s goof for.
69 - I’m a strong Obama-Biden supporter who certainly hopes that the rumor/allegation re: Sarah Palin are NOT true. That would be a personal tragedy, a family tragedy, plus a tragedy for the state of Alaska and American politics.
And will say again I do NOT believe the rumor/allegation. And won’t believe it unless & until there is HARD evidence.
re 83 two words to that - “Mark Oaten”
66. Oh yeah, like there would have been absolutely no mysogyny at all from the GOP if Hilary had been on the ticket?
68 “so no real immediate big bounce for the palin selection then?”"
That must concern the McCain camp. They have now played their joker…and it hasn’t got their man close enough.
Has the Republican Convention officially been postponed, btw?
89. from what i’ve read it won’t be postponed whatever happens, but it might be scaled back to the extent you get mccain giving his speech via satellite. from the point of view of him getting a bounce from the convention its going to hurt him isn’t it?
If true, surely it reflects nothing but credit on Palin?
90. Depends. People might like the approach.
83 - Alaska woman are pretty tough bunch. With plenty of attitude to boot. Including belief they can do it all: run the state, travel the world and give birth, it’s all in a good day’s work for a Chrisitian superwoman!
86. SSI tell how would they get hard evidence?
It seems to me to get such evidence would require some sort of legal move would it not and take months to achieve?
… and I know some people might call me sensitive over the ‘mud-slinging’, but I do *not* like this level of mud-slinging. There are a lot more negative attacks that can be made on the Palin and McCain campaign than these conspiracy theories that drag innocent kids into the spotlight.
I thought the Obama campaign was supposed to be all about a positive movement from change, away from the ‘old’, cynical politics? Do Obama’s supporters still practice that?
90, 89; certainly there has been a bounce; Zogby had McCain up two on Obama (forget Jack W’s voodoo polls with Barr and Nader and look at the headline numbers) and Scott Ramussen said Palin had trodden all over the bounce Obama should have gotten from his speech (muted it was his quote, I think).
You will see from the following Horowits piece, how the liberals and left cant stand the thought of Palin. It literaly makes them vomit.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/norman-horowitz/sarah-palin_b_122794.html
From the police reports of the Palin daughter’s road accident in September, if she WERE to have been attending a doctor at that time, it could only be Dr Robert C Myers MD of Wasilla AK, whose office happens to be next to the junction the police reported the car accident was located near. Guess Dr Myers’ phone is going to be red-hot with the National Enquirer etc?
Keep in mind that the Labor Day weekend seriously messes with the national polling as well as campaign communications by and via the media.
Indeed, appears that GOP masterminds may not have accounted for this rather predictable factor in their own strategizing & planning for their national convention viz-a-viz the Democratic convention schedule.
And they certainly didn’t plan for Gustav.
Actually, believe GOP and McCain are making a BIG mistake by going into a tizzy over the new huricane.
–is stark and timely reminder of Bush Republican historic incompentence re: Katrina
–gives the appearence of over reacting yet again to a crisis; when it would make more sense and be more of a confidence builder if Republicans went about their business on behalf of the nation, but took stong action as a connvention on behalf of Gustav vicims, for example raising beau coup dollars for relief, and releasing the entire Louisiana delegation to return home to help as volunteers.
91 Credit with some, perhaps. But if I tried to claim someone else’s child was actually mine, presumably that would involve fun and games on the Birth Certificate that might not be wholly within the criminal law? It might have been done with the best of intentions - but what if the reason were that it would otherwise be politically damaging to my career? Not sure where the “credit” would be for me in that.
97 So far not a peep from main-media on the Palin story.
94.We don’t need hard evidence! Just a little bit of common sense, and a basic knowledge of obstetrics would blow these stupid rumours out of the water.
96 test. I include Barr and Nader in the published polls as they will be on the ballot. Remember Florida 2000 !!
101.. Except for this piece:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lee-stranahan/why-dailykos-embraced-the_b_122790.html
99-Damned if they do & damned if they don’t aye re conf.
Financier O/T 270. Excellent analysis, this should be a thread on its own. A Conservative manifesto along these lines, with a clear exposition of the disastrous Labour performance that has led to it, would be ideal and might eventually get us out of the mess we are in. Would it win or lose the election for the Conservatives?If it loses, the country loses.William Hague would understand, hopefully he is thinking along the same lines.
102 - think you make a very good point. Personally as single guy am far from qualified to render a judgement. But clearly there are plenty of woman (and fathers) out there who have a much better frame of reference.
104 - among other things Sranahan notes that”The whole story is based on an insulting view of fundamentalist Christians; that they’d be so freaked out by a teenage pregnancy that they’d have the Governor — the most highly visible and public women in the small fishbowl of Alaska — fake a pregnancy to cover up the sins her of daughter”.
Can testify that strong religious conservative women in this day and age are more likely to embrace an erring daughter and publically support than to try to hide her sin as in days of old. And anyone who has seen an episode of “Northern Exposure” can appreciate the difficulties of maintaining such a charade up in America’s Last Frontier . . . even if you weren’t the Governor.
102. I think you misinterpret the reason why I asked that question.
My point is that there is little point the media or Democrats pursuing these stupid rumours (I would go further in my condemnation of them) because they ain’t going to be able to prove anything without portraying themselves in a really distasteful light.
I’m an Obama supporter, who also likes McCain, and thinks Palin was a wonderful pick. I would be very sorry indeed if what is malicious gossip at the moment turned out to be true.
I think the pro-choice lobby (and the pro-life lobby too) can be awfully immature and hate-filled. There is something utterly admirable about someone who has a belief (in this case, that abortion is wrong even when the child has a serious disability) and is prepared to endure such hardship because they feel that such a path is virtuous. I think that would confound the pro-choicers who think that people are only pro-life because they’ve never had to face such a difficult decision, or because the hate women. And I speak as someone who believes it would be utterly wrong to overturn Roe vs Wade, in spite of my moral opposition to abortion.
If the child is not hers, then look at this morally, not politically, to begin with. The pro-choice lobby would see it as forcing a young woman to go full-term with a fetus with Down’s. But on a personal level (and I reckon that it is likely that her daughter is/was pro-life as well) being prepared to take responsibility for your daughter’s child to save her what would be extraordinary shame from her community (I think it too cynical to think Palin did this for political reasons) takes a degree of virtue as well, in spite of being politically difficult.
Beyond the lie (which I can forgive when it is something this difficult, and is about her daughter, not about her) I wouldn’t actually think worse of Palin for this, though I think it would end her chances of the Vice Presidency - this could be a Thomas Eagleton moment.
Palin Rumor - look to the Anchorage Daily News to get to the bottom of this story, one way or another.
104 - The Huffington Post story is written by Lee Stranahan. Many won’t recognise the name, except that he was banned from Daily Kos (you normally have to claim 9/11 was an inside job to get banned) for insisting (heavily insisting) that the John Edwards story was true.
To his credit, plenty of Kossacks thought he was vindicated and owed an apology after Edwards admitted it - at the time he was accused of being a troll. Even though he was a progressive blogger, he had no track history of posting diaries on Kos before he raised the Edwards’ affair.
A good blogger - I always found him convincing, though I didn’t believe the Edwards thing until it was admitted either.
Why do you have to be a “liberal” or “lefty” to be pretty put off by Palin. I can’t imagine too much of the UK right think much of her either!
109-have you thought about a career in Amateur Dramatics- you are so far up yourself it is unbelievable-such pseudo intellectualism is so false-Are you the second coming.
Anyone wishing to bet against Palin becoming GOP VP nominee at 50-1, might instead wish to consider backing either Romney or Pawlenty, both priced at 200-1.
113 - another fan…*sigh*.
‘David’ I thought you were Palin’s biggest fan - why aren’t you pleased that I’m writing nice things about her? I’m saying whether true or not, I think she’s a good person, even if this destroyed her chances, and I hope it won’t.
All other accusations: guilty as charged (you’ve not seen the worst of it)
MODERATED
114 - If (and it’s a huge if) Palin was dropped, McCain would surely have to choose a woman, wouldn’t he? He couldn’t relent on the historic step of putting a woman on the GOP ticket for the first time, surely?
117 - The point of that was to say Bailey hutchinson is about 150-1, and Rice must be longer odds. That is the value bet if you think Palin will be dropped, rather than laying her or betting on the men.
There are markets on this election. Intrade.com has markets on the party with the most seats. http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=426590&z=1220207114109
Cons last price is 65.
115-I’m glad you agree with me-yes very pro Palin but your last paragraph was so over the top-i’m surprised you are’nt on the Messiah’s payroll.
117 In that case, Kay Bailey Hutchison is 100-1, they then go 170-1 the field.
See what’s been started, Mike? @116, for instance.
For the good name of PB.C (if nothing else), suggest you close this down NOW….
Only comments about the betting aspects caused by the possible uncertainty will be allowed from now on
116. Do these people know nothing about photoshop and other digital aids to alter perception and call a lie the truth?
Wasn’t it Goebbles who said: The bigger the lie, the more it will be beleived?
119 - I’m sorry! My online persona gets to be (even) more bumptious than I could ever get away with in person. What can I say? I heard the guy speaking in person - even if you have doubts about him (and I do) the rhetoric is infectious!
I don’t think I’m on bad terms with anyone else on the site, and I would hate us to be. Truce?
121 - It’s difficult Rod, because this is such a potentially massive story. But I do take your point - kids should be off limits, so I’m happy to drop this if others are?
96. zogby is rubbish though
The Times now running the story
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article4647965.ece
Chris A
You show me where I’ve shown sympathy for Palin.
126. “utterly unfounded internet rumours” their learned friends have made sure they stress….
So should you….
124-Truce accepted with one aside-Hitler’s rhetoric was infectious too.
From the last photo in the Kos article, it’s NOT true.
Photo as at March 2008 (when the allegation would have it that the girl was 7 months pregnant) is pretty much equal “bump-wise” to the photo of her in “late 2007″ (so at least 5 months earlier) and is not that of a heavily pregnant teenager.
It is that of a teenage girl, with a very slight inclination towards a little chubbiness (see cheeks) who is due on. Both times.
I wouldn’t risk ANY money on this rumour being true - it’s patently not.
99 Sorry. Disagree.
I’m certain that we both hope Gustav blows itself out. Job done.
If on the other hand it hits NO or anywhere near and the new super improved arrangements save the day it will be a massive coup for both the GOP and NO’s excellent ‘no sh*t’ mayor.
“They’ve learnt” “They’ve changed” “They were prepared” can only
be GOP+
Especially with GWB on the front line and having to ‘unavoidably’ mis or be lat for the convention.
I think the undergroud might suggest that there is some ramping going on.
Rumours dont have to be true of course for ramping to succeed and any allegation of ramping would of course be like this story, merely a rumour.
132. underground? I meant ungenerous.
Sky: GOP to hold news conference at 9pm (GMT?) on changes to the Convention….
129 - Good! (on the aside…so I’ve heard, but slight shame about the content…)
The rumour is almost certainly untrue. But if it is true, it is to the credit of Palin that she moved to protect her daughter and the child, and that is how it will be seen by her constituency.
Now, perhaps Palin may in any case decide this game is too rough for her and pull out to protect her family but I’d want a sight longer than 50/1.
Think about the rumours — some true, some absurd — that swirled around Clinton and Bush. They still won (twice). Obama remains favourite for 2008.
Oh gawd.
I go away for a few hours, and I come back an The Internets have gone shocking.
On Canada - I expect another Tory minority government, although perhaps with a few more seats than last time. Dion is not an effective opposition leader, and Harper ran a very savvy campaign last time around.
138. Harper has good hair, the type of a middle aged day time TV soap opera actor.
Overall I think its always a plus in politics.
Hmm, do betfair do by-elections? Nothing up for Glenrothes as yet.
OT — are we expecting a 9/11 anniversary effect?
from last thread, here is Stanislav’s take on Gordon Brown. I found it a good read. Hat tip morus.
http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/forums/showthread.php?t=715470
70.
The Obama rumour *has Results 1 - 10 of about 1,480,000 for barack Obama Rumour.*
Don’t forget there was a RUMOUR that Palin would be VP the other day adding to the hits.
Think those who believe it have been had - Indeed a simple birth certificate will show this is cobblers. Inlike the situation where a man fathers a child, bit difficult not to identify where a child comes from at birth!
Those who munger this rumour are mad - not a thing on it in the US media - I have tried cable networks, leftwing press (New york Times) and all sorts of stuff nothing in the US!
There are 4 entries for ‘Ave it 08′ on google!
138. The most interesting thing in a parliamentry system about Canada is the Liberal leaders popularity -50 vs. the Canadian PM’s -10%. I should imagine this will benifit the Tories as the devil you know is always preferable to the one you do not! Quite possibly a case of differentiated turnout!
143. Inlike = Unlike
Results 1 - 10 of about 7,500,000 for Ave it 07.
Yous is famous Ave it
131 - You make some good points. BUT you characterisation of Mayor Naguin in NOT one of them. It’s a sign of the extreme shellshock of what remains of the New Orleans electorate that they re-elected him. Whereas statewide Louisiana voters ran off fellow incompentent Gov. Blanco. While on the national level voter would rather have a rancid pigskin on a stick than another week of W and the Cheney Adminstration beyond the constitutionally-required minimum.
Contrast the way that the Neo-Cons including McCain always do the Chicken Little act in the midst of any crisis, to the British response to IRA bombings. Remember being in London on the tube and hearing announcments (funny how quality of squawk box always improves at such times!) that various parts of the underground, department stores, etc where temporarily out of service.
USA is a big country. We have at least a disaster a day. Going about our business does NOT mean that we are callous to our suffering fellow Americans. Far from it, its the best way to honor them and raise the wherewithall to give them a helping hand. Just like we hope they will do for us if (or rather when) needed.
But points you raise do show this cuts more than one way depending on audiences, messages and ravages.
And with you 1000.07% in hoping that Gustav peters out. Unfortunately, it’s following classic track of killer storms such as Betsy and Katrina. But believe right not Gustav is slower that Katrina, meaning there’s greater chance of deflection left (west) or right (east) of current tracking.
IF storm goes left (west) then believe it is greater threat to oil patch, both off and on-shore. In addition to the direct blow to low-lying parishes of south-central LA would put Gustav’s dangerous northeast quadrant (dangerous because the most powerful winds and hardest rains) right over New Orleans, its burbs and the River Parishes.
IF storm goes right (east) then bad news for either/both Buloxi, Gulfport and the Mississippi Gulf Coast and/or Mobile and surround parts of south Alabama.
147, famous, but SO last year:p
143 - In fairness, whilst I agree the rumour is nonsense, a birth certificate would sadly not prove anything. Like the “whitey” tape, it is particularly unpleasant as there is very little the target can do.
This will almost certainly blow over. Palin’s bigger concern is that the trooper firing business will roll on and it appears her “principled” stance on the Bridge to Nowhere was rather different last year.
Palin rumour: obviously untrue (and criminal libel). Certain to rebound.
Cui Bono.
AVE IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
151 - Rebound on who though? Like the “whitey” tapes it almost certainly has nothing to do with the opposing campaign. It is a malicious internet rumour spread by nobodies with nothing better to do - and a few people will believe it I’m afraid.
SAVE THE BABY
In the space of hardly 24 hours, the youngest member of the Palin clan has become more politically prominent (in some circles) than John-John and Baby Ruth combined. Hard not to deplore this, unless of course you happen to be a press baron or blogmaster.
My heart hates these rumors. I oppose Sarah Palin’s partisan and ideological politics. But I like the cut of her jib plus the fact she and Obama together represent both the Last Glass Ceiling AND the Final Frontier.
My head tells me that, unless the management of the McCain campaign are not a pack of blithering idiots, they will have been hip to the rumor/allegation that son>grandson. And gotten to the bottom of it. Meaning that Gov. Palin passed that particular test with flying colors.
PROVIDED of course the criminally moronic incompetence that has rotted out the Cheney Administration and turned W into a punchline for the rest of human history has NOT affected Team McCain.
But my real reliance, is upon the good sense and basic values of Gov. Palin. Plus the thinness of the gruel that is passing for evidence so far.
Also put my reliance on the Anchorage Daily News. Which as Sen. Stevens call testify has a certain reputation for ferreting out the inconvenient truths of Alaska politics.
152. AVE IT for ever!
52 - for once, I concur with PB’s Poet Laureate
Credit crunch will lead to crime wave: Home Office warns Downing Street
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/2657335/Credit-crunch-could-lead-to-crime-wave-Home-Office-warns-Downing-Street.html
Yes my car Window and Sat-Nav were a leading indicator of this!
Oh Ancient Jacobite and Yokel, and other historically minded and crotchety-dispositioned PBers, just occured to me that the Sarah Palin rumor is but an echo of the allegation that the youngest son of James II was actually not his issue but instead had been smuggled into the Queen’s bedchamber in a warming pan.
The Palin rumour is ridiculous! She is Governor of the state and couldn’t have possibly have faked a pregnancy (or covered up her daughter’s). I’m quite sure a nurse, doctor or receptionist would have sold the story before now. And there is no way she would have accepted the McCain veep offer knowing the increased public scrutiny she would have been under.
However, I’ve also laid Palin (10 to win 1000) just in case it is true.
157. *sigh.* This is getting more and more depressing every single day.
Can we not have an election and at least allow another party to have *a go*? Because Labour look like doing nothing but exacerbating the situation and screwing up the country for the considerable future.