Is this upping the stakes for Gord?
September 2nd, 2008
Does Labour’s candidate choice make it that more personal?
Given Labour’s by election record and the terrible poll ratings then as soon as the news came of the the death of John MacDougall, MP for Glenrothes, the assumption has been that this will be the party’s third loss in Scotland of the four Westminster seats it has defended since the last general election.
For after seeing a thirteen-and-a-half thousand vote majority overturned in Glasgow East in July, the real surprise will be if Labour hang on.
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The objective for Labour, assuming that saving the seat is out of the question, is to survive with as little damage to the overall reputation of the party and the leader as possible.
But that’s not going to be easy. The constituency adjoins Gordon’s and now the defence will be portrayed as being even more personal because of the candidate that has been chosen.
For the party has picked Lindsay Roy to run and he’s the 58 year old head at Kirkcaldy High School, where the young Gordon went and has known the Labour leader for years.
A story about another Labour by election defeat has the same potency these days as another “20% poll deficit” - we’ve got used to it. But that could be different here with the added close personal Brown dimension.
One fact that might help is date for the by-election. Many in the party are urging Brown to move the writ early, perhaps prior to the Labour Party Conference at the end of September. The thinking is that this will allow for another re-launch.
Having endured Alasdair Darling’s interview with the Guardian this weekend, you cannot see Brown wanting to begin his Party Conference by adding yet another humiliating by-election defeat. Were he to delay, a pending by-election might be an incentive for the Labour party to hold ranks.
Unless he is convinced he can defy the odds and win in Glenrothes, he would do best to wait, perhaps until November as Morus has suggested here before. The juxtaposition with the US presidential election on November 4th should reduce the media coverage of Glenrothes.
Labour seem confident that they have selected a strong candidate, but will that mean anything to the electorate of Glenrothes, or will they avail themselves of the opportunity already taken by the voters of Glasgow East and Henley? Lindsay Roy might be standing for Labour, but this remains a referendum on Gordon Brown.
We’ll be betting on another SNP gain.
Morus and Mike Smithson
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Back on the topic of the government ‘helping’ next week we get the pony Gordon will spend on helping 2 families and a children’s centre out of fuel poverty
Yay Labour
That guy looks like John Denham would after going through an aging machine
They really needed an experienced political operator to stand a chance.
The SNP have been working hard in the area and took the equivalent seat last year in the assembly.
I am sure that Mr Roy is a thoroughly respectable and hard-working individual but he does have to be a miracle worker to overcome the negative narrative that his colleagues in the party are helping to fuel. Labour are their own worst enemies at the present time - and I cannot see a way of reversing that without radical change.
GB is not going to be a vote winner - even in his own back yard. I wonder what odds we could get on his face being featured on more opposition leaflets than on those of his own party.
2 — The same machine Brown’s been in this last year?
4 yes, thats the one - the twatinator
3 — It won’t be just Brown’s face on the SNP leaflets, it’ll be Brown’s face alongside Thatcher’s.
Latest Rasmussen Tracker :
McCain 45% .. Obama 51%
Note - 3 point Obama bounce since yesterday. Palin remorse or stat noise ??
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
6, makes you wonder if eventually we’ll end up discovering a new Shakespeare play: “The Terrible Tragedy of Mr Brown”. If this doesn’t turn around soon it is going to reach Greek epic proportions when the hammer finally falls.
Out of interest, what do people think the effect of a Brown victory would be? No, don’t laugh. A minor blip in a catalogue of catastrophes or the potential for something to build on?
8 “what do people think the effect of a Brown victory would be?”
Well, if Labour win this by-election, and he’s been heavily involved, it will shore up his position, not least in his own mind. In other words, good news for the Conservatives.
9 - I should add that I don’t think it likely.
o/t-previous thread-379-Crap-just 9% or less will be influenced by race-also the world will not change overnight with a black man in charge(by the way he is mixed-race)-you can’t even get THAT right.
This may have been said already (I have been away and not yet been desperate to read the back posts) but surely the thing about a VP above all other is “Would they be a credible President if the worst happened?” If the answer is no then the ticket will be damaged. McCain cannot deny his age so there is a danger that the ticket will be seriously damaged if Palin is seen as too lightweight.
7 further …. The 3 point bounce would indicate the figures for Monday were approx Obama 56% .. McCain 44% !!
I have been enjoying a nice holiday and have just read up on all the big news of the weekend. I know the Palin story was already discussed two threads ago, but it is definitely a fascinating one with unknown political effects. One’s first reaction is that it will be a disaster for McCain, but on reflection, it seems to be more of a tar pit for the Democrats, some of whom have recklessly sauntered on in. The left-wing blogs have been predictably shameless, spinning lies about Palin pretending to be the mother to hide her daughter’s pregnancy. The pro-life groups, closely affiliated with religious groups, have rushed to Palin’s defense since apparently the daughter wishes to keep the child and marry the father. Obama airily sniffed that he was “offended” at a suggestion, never in fact made, by the McCain campaign that he was behind the story.
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN2944356420080901?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&rpc=22&sp=true
People just don’t like this sort of thing being injected into politics, and even when it was Bill Clinton himself who was at the center of a scandal involving sex, the electoral result was that the voters rewarded his party with a great performance in the 1998 mid-term elections. I don’t know what the ultimate political effect of this story will be, but it’s looking less and less like it will be a boost to Democrats.
@13:
That puts us well into the cathartic Obama landslide territory I instinctively feel America wants.
13- I thought Obama would at least get out to a 50% to 40% lead by Monday or so, as the final culmination of his convention bounce. If he has in fact only managed something like 51% to 45%, this has to be quite disappointing for his campaign.
politics.co.uk say that Roy is 59 years old:
http://www.politics.co.uk/features/opinion-former-index/legal-and-constitutional/profile-labour-s-glenrothes-candidate-1238892.htm
Just a couple of weeks ago a Labour politician was quoted in a newspaper article saying that Labour needed a young, fresh candidate in Glenrothes. It was a good quote, around the time of the McLeish stooshie. I’ll see if i can dig it up.
Just watched repeat of Jeremy Kyle show. Struck me as a bit like UK politics.
The guests were gormless, hopeless, hapless, pathetic. Stumbled inarticulately through the show.
Kyle was loud, brash, rude, obnoxious and playing to the gallery, but actually no help.
Reminded me Cameron and Brown at PMQs.
I, like almost everyone else, have given up on Gordon. The best he can do is resign, or failing that, stay out of the limelight. His future depends in part on the scale of the defeat (which it almost certainly will be) but I think it’s the national opinion polls Labour MPs are most scared of.
More interestingly, what’s happening at Newcastle and has anyone got a tip on the next manager?
…..Meanwhile McCain’s judgement is looking poor, forget the baby bit, look at the lying about the Bridge to Nowhere bit, the being a member of the Alaska Independence party bit, the having views on foreign policy that you could write on the back of a postage stamp bit, the non deep vetting until after the event bit, the not having his real choice as Veep bit and so on, and so on…..
The right would do well to try and use any kerfuffle about the baby as a smokescreen because underneath it there are an awful lot of more important things being brought to light.
18, somewhat unfair, to both of them. On some serious issues (Burma and Zimbabwe) PMQs actually become much more statesmanlike, and the exchanges were generally very civilised.
As for playing to the gallery, it’s the only regular Commons event that the public just might care enough about to watch/listen to. Who criticised Cable for being witty with his Mr Bean jibe?
17
Do all Labour policical candidiates have to look like they are over 40? Why do they not choose some bright experienced go getter wnting to make a name for him/her self?
After all the guy’s looks are not going to enthuse younger voters let alone his profession.
16 - Well Jack is saying on the rolling poll Obama was something like 56-44 on Monday itself so that is ahead of your thinking with fewer undecided voters.
I am not sure how Rasmussen weight their rolling poll though - they may give more weight to more recent days in which case the gap would be smaller.
The real test, however, is next Monday rather than this one. It’s all very nice getting a “bounce” but the big prize is “winning” the convention season - what do the numbers look like when Labo(u)r Day, the VP picks and both conventions are out of the way? At that point, we will have a very clear picture. There is still many a slip twixt cup and lip but it will be tough for any candidate who is a few points back at that point.
19 The next manager of Newcastle will be mad to take the job as he will have failed before he has started. and with no money for transfers or no control over them…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/n/newcastle_united/7593683.stm
23 - Rasmussen weight by party ID therefore their polls should be comparatively stable, I don’t think Gallup does but don’t quote me on that.
20 - if there is lasting damage from the Palin pick, and I’m far from convinced there is, or will be - it will be from the fact that McCain appears to have acted “on a whim” without proper vetting.
This, I suspect will be the line of attack. It also allows you to make pointed comments about teenage pregnancy, while appearing to attack McCain rather than his running mate.
*That said*, I suspect either (a) the Democrats will misplay it; and (b) most people don’t care.
24
Excact parallel with the PM’s job in fact.
Skilled Interviewer and not Unpleasant Shrew Kay Burley has an estate agent on being fairly damning of the government proposals.
New Hotline poll has Obama up 48-39.
Was conducted from 29 Aug to 31 Aug but only came out today.
Same report says full GOP convention schedule today. Bush to speak via satellite.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/hotline/wakeupcall.php
26 - It wasn’t McCain acting, as far as I can tell. He was boxed in with all his preferred candidates nixed by various groups. Bigwigs didn’t want a pro-choicer so Lieberman and Ridge were out (Rove apparently putting the frighteners on Lieberman, demanding that he pull out), Romney has enemies, Huckabee has lots of enemies. Palin was the candidate left standing after everyone had had their say.
23- I presume the 56 to 44 figure must be a snapshot of ONLY the two-party vote, since it’s impossible that there are both 1) no undecideds and 2) no third party voters. If that’s the case, then Jack’s numbers almost exactly match mine, since 50% to 40%, extrapolated into a two-party vote, is 55.5% to 44.4%, which would round off to 56% to 44%. This is the threshold that Obama should have reached by the beginning of this week as a minimum, with an extra bounce indicating a successful convention.
But you’re right in that the most important figure will be where we’re at in a week or so. In a sense, that will be the real beginning of the campaign and we’ll then be able to see who, if anybody, has an opening head start.
29 - By Sunday/Monday polls should be giving an idea as to how the GOP convention has gone down, until then they may be artificially inflated.
Lindsay Roy beat Kezia Dugdale at the selection meeting. She is young… but unfortunately a bampot, in the Baron von Foulkes mould. (She is Baron Foulkes’ assistant.)
“I did my speech in front of an audience of 60 odd (including party staffers at the back of the hall) and then took questions for what felt like half an hour but couldn’t have been more than 10 mins. Difficult questions at that. What makes you different? Why is Labour so unpopular at the moment, what are you going to do to tackle the rising cost of living? Exactly the same sort of questions the public will be asking on the doorsteps. Which made me think, rejuvenating and revitalising the party base is the only way that Labour can really get back in touch and back on side with voters.
After the count, I got some lovely feedback from members and am very grateful to the nine people who gave me their first preference vote! 9 more than I had anticipated so cheers!”
http://keziadugdale.blogspot.com/2008/09/johnnie-jannie-and-auchmuty-high-school.html
21 - well, I know it’s a bit unfair to say that. But at least Cable was being witty, not just hectoring.
And Cameron’s hectoring is no different from Blair’s.
Remember kids, Kerry peaked at a +8 or +9% lead.
Dukakis was ahead of Bush senior by more.
SUSA have some interesting polling in some battleground state Congressional districts. Included are Presidential voting intentions and I’ve dug up the Kerry/Bush figures :
Minnesota 03 .. McCain 46% .. Obama 48% - Bush 51% .. Kerry 48%
Florida 21 .. McCain 48% .. Obama 48% - Bush 57% .. Kerry 43%
Pennsylvania 10 .. McCain 50% .. Obama 41% - Bush 60% .. Kerry 40%
http://www.surveyusa.com/electionpolls.aspx
would love to see some individual state polls, shame that none seem to be floating about
More bad news for McCain-Palin:
http://www.abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=5702697&page=1
I think Senator Hollis will be doing his best to ensure the “Troopergate” report will be coming out on time on 31 October.
26- The poor vetting issue could be an important one if the Democrats can actually manage to play it as such. That is a VERY dangerous play, though. And unfortunately for the Democrats, the high visibility of the poisonous left-wing blogosphere makes it almost impossible for Democrats to separate their identity from that of the blogosphere. The blogosphere alone will make the Democrats look mean, petty, hypocritical, and disrespectful of private family matters. Any fuel the actual Democratic Party throws on that fire will only add to the danger. The Republican response can be that there was no failure to vet, but rather that that wasn’t an appropriate topic of vetting. Can the Democrats then come back and say that a parent of a child who becomes pregnant before marriage is unfit to serve? That’s some interesting 1950’s-style thinking from a party that has made a fine art of demonizing such thinking. I just don’t see how the Democrats can successfully make hay out of this without being burned themselves in the process. Maybe it can be done, but I’ll have to see it to believe it.
11. Nine per cent is more than enough to swing this election. Mixed race? OK, error accepted, but to a lot of white people he’s just a regular black guy.
I stand by my basic point. If Obama wins as a mixed race man, the world changes, overnight. The most powerful man in the world is not white and that’s a tectonic shift. Still you’d prefer a reactionary old man in charge? My best guess is you will get your wish and the reactionary old man wins this election, swung by the votes of quiet racists. But I sincerely hope not, for all our sakes.
Perhaps Republicans should believe more in education and contraception than abstinence!
39 - I just gave you a handful of things thrown up in the last few days and yet you turn it back around to the baby. I can see that this is what the GOP will try to do, it’s up to Democrats to call out their (ab)use of the news of this baby to promote their ticket.
24 The next Newcastle manager: Mad - possibly. Exceptionally well paid - certainly.
35 - Kerry led significantly earlier in the season though - before conventions and Labor Day. If you look at this poll of polls graph, you’ll see Kerry never led from late August through to polling day. Bush’s lead peaked around now in the cycle and although Kerry closed later, it wasn’t enough:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/chart3way.html
I think the Dukakis case was similar - he had huge leads at one point but this was even further out from the election.
That isn’t to say Obama is unstoppable - he isn’t. But polls are very volatile early in the campaign whereas right now a lot of people have a pretty settled view of the main characters and it is harder work to close a gap.
On the Palin thing, isn’t 17 a bit young to be getting married? McCain knew about the family ‘problem’, so why did he do it? No alternatives? Choosing a woman made some sense, but one who is so anti-abortion? I can’t believe that will win over the Hillary waverers.
44 - Or perhaps I sould say by this time next week when both conventions are done it will be hard work for either candidate to close or extend the gap.
The PB clock appears to be approximately 5 minutes fast.
45 - or maybe because it wasn’t relevent to his choice of VP?
or maybe be cause Miss Palin hadn’t told her mother she was pregnant?
(”Mom, you’re going to be VP, that’s wonderful! And I have some more great news, you’re going to be a Grandmother! … … … Mom… Mom… Why are you looking at me like that?”)
40-the World changes because he’s not White-What are you on!!!!!Yes I would prefer McCain who is a free thinker. No I don’t think McCain will win unfortunately(I hope I’m wrong)because what does Obama actually stand for & don’t tell me “change” because it’s a meaningless phrase.
33 Take out the staffers and the local membership that turned out was nearer 50.
50 in a rock solid Labour seat is about the same level as voted at the Glasgow East selection.
Do they also have no canvassing data there?
24. I don’t understand why Newcastle haven’t been bought by some Kazakh Nickel Trillionaire or the Sovereign Wealth Fund of Small Absurdly Wealthy Emirate Inc. Etc Etc.
The Toon is the one club in the English Premier League with the most untapped potential: a romantic history, enormous fan base, widespread popularity, absolute lust for glory (having been thwarted for decades), no obvious rivals for many miles, etc etc. It’s a great football brand, too - from the black and white strip to the Newky Brown association.
If I was a sheikh or an oligarch with several trillion to spare, and I wanted to buy an English Premiership club - (and it seems they all do) - I’d buy Newcastle. I certainly wouldn’t buy… Man City.
Weird. I guess it’s possible the owners of NUFC don’t wanna sell, but it’s a shame. They should. I want to see The Toon bought by Bill effing Gates, and dominate Europe for a year or two.
Haway the lads.
36 Jack
SUSA had some very odd and volatile polls during the primaries didn’t they ? I think they were the ones who had the Florida poll which way oversampled Miami and showed Rudy leading.
I know this has come up before but could Mark Senior or Rod or another of the stats minded posters comment on what a reasonable sample size should be.
40-So that’s it. Like the primary battle:
-if Hillary won it was because of racism
-if Obama won it was beasuse of mysogynism
Come November we can all relive 2000 (I hope) and not recognise McCain as the legitimate president because of the vote of “racists”. Perhaps ending at the Supreme Court where the Dems can argue that the votes of racists should not count. In effect, “don’t count every vote” - a fitting irony.
17 is simply too young to be starting a family, unless you’re one of those Bible-thumpers who secretly thinks that’s all women are good for. (And I wouldn’t be surprised if there were a lot of such people still around.)
I think the Democrats are making a big mistake gunning for Palin. She is a good candidate in many ways, and the things that she is ripe to be attacked upon (being a member of the Alaskan Independence Party for example) are connected with her political choices.
But the main line of attack should not be aimed at her - rather it should be ‘The key issue is John McCain’s judgement - he is prepared to make someone Vice President , putting them a heart-beat from the Presidency, having not vetted them properly and having met them only once. This is poor judgement compounded by political expediency pandering to the religious right.’
Palin seems a fundamentally decent woman, whom I believe in a couple of years would have been a great contender for the Presidency. She has been rushed into position, and whilst I think it was a great political move (if very risky) it could be spun as showing a lack of care in appointing someone to the upper echelons of the Federal Government.
45 - Needed somebody anti-abortion for the base (or so the argument goes).
We honestly can’t be sure how this will play out. There is a decent chance people will either ignore the story (follow Obama’s lead and say “irrelevant”) or actually be attracted by the fact Palin is human with all that brings including family problems. Other candidates had their own problems. If he had gone with Pawlenty or Romney, a lot of people would be saying, “he needed a game changer - that’s all rather tedious”, if he had gone with Lieberman it would have upset the base and so on.
It doesn’t look great for McCain just now (and I have to query whether he really did know - he has to say he did now of course). But in a few days it could look very different, with a widely liked “feisty” VP candidate up against a stale old insider in the form of Biden. I’d say 60:40 against that outcome now but the wheel’s still in spin…
50. I would suspect that Labour have a heck of a lot more canvassing data here than they did at Glasgow East (pretty much zero). Christine May MSP, and Henry McLeish the MP & MSP before her, had their flaws, but neither was a completely incompetent idiot! Plus Labour have know for at least a year that McDougall had terminal lung cancer. They will have been ferreting away in the constituency for a long time.
42- So many of the angles you’d like to go after Palin on are fraught with danger for the Obama campaign. Foreign policy experience? Talk about Palin, get people thinking about Obama.
AIP membership? Maybe we could talk about Rev. Wright’s church some more.
Sister’s brother-in-law story? Nobody can really make much of it, without looking partisan, until the report comes in, but to read the comments of the Democrat who’s running the investigation, it sounds like the investigation is anything but fair. We’ll have to see what happens, but this looks like it could be another item that could backfire on Dems who try to make much of it.
I said from the beginning that this was an unconventional and risky pick for McCain, and clearly it still is. The worst would be if McCain had to dump her for some reason in the weeks to come. But she represents a lot of peril for Dems, too, and it is too soon to say who stands to get burned more.
49 - It’s a fair question, and my answer would be ‘fulfilling the Clinton legacy - universal health coverage, a balanced budget with a controlled defecit, and significant investment in alternative energy sources’.
Clinton never managed the first and third of these in eight years, largely because he mismanaged them (Hillarycare) and largely because he faced a hostile Congress, especially from 1994 onwards. Obama has two years of untrammelled power if he wins. He has the chance to do what was not done by Clinton.
Politics Home have a campaign 08 edition.
59- And he’s going to do it all while raising taxes only on those making at least 250K/yr. What a miracle worker! Maybe he really is the new messiah after all…
AIP member ship v Rev Wright’s church.
SaS, you can see that’s not a legit comparison. Firstly, to say that everyone who attends hates America is silly (even assumes Wright does, and he was a Marine, so I’m inclined to think it is largely rhetorical). Conversely, it would be a little odd if someone in the AIP didn’t believe in Alaskan Independence.
Believing in secession from the USA is a pretty dramatic belief for a VP candidate to have held. It warrants an explanation at best.
54 - Nobody denies 17 is too young to start a family - least of all Palin. What I think she’d say is what happened happened, family rallying round etc. Fair enough - we all did silly things at 16/17 (and I still do silly things now speaking personally) but most of us are fortunate the silly things we do generally don’t result in lifechanging events.
In order to make the Glenrothes by-election contest remotely interesting, we need to have a betting market on the size of the SNP’s majority, or a handicapped bet on the same basis. If Ladbrokes are still licking their wounds after Crewe & Nantwich, Henley and especially Glasgow East, then perhaps Paddy Power will pick up the gauntlet.
36 Jack W
By the way Jack did you see the latest campaign ad from Chris Shays (R-CT). He’s the only Republican house member in the whole of New England. Interesting positioning to say the least.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZ_y-jpWSY8
61 - I knew you would see the light, brother! There is more joy in Chicago over one sinner who repents…
61 - I agree, I don’t think his tax plan will work, but I haven’t seen the numbers in detail. He’s actually insisting he will CUT taxes on 95% of ‘working families’
Morus; I propose an audatious swap. Alaska can become independent and merge with the oil rich (and independent) entity of Scotland. We’ll call it AlaSco. England can become the new 50th state of the United States of America.
Northern Ireland can rejoin Eire. And Wales is just stuffed (was it ever any different?)
Plus, as a bonus we get Tony as President in a few years.
62- The jury is still out and we’ll have to find out more before we can conclude if she really militated for Alaskan independence or if she instead saw the party as a vehicle for greater self-determination of Alaska or greater autonomy over natural resources. Even third party members aren’t necessarily pure adherents to party platforms, as I have myself found a home in the past in both the Republican Party and the Libertarian Party.
The Rev. Wright and AIP parallels are fair because both raise the question: What the h*ll were you doing there if you didn’t believe everything being preached there? There can be legitimate answers to these questions indicating lack of complete adherence to doctrine.
By the way, I wonder how many white people sat and/or sit on the benches of Rev. Wright’s church. Would you feel comfortable there, Morus? If not, why not?
Same sort of uncomfortable questions based on affiliation.
68 - Why can’t the Welsh join as an Anglo-Welsh state? We’ve not said nasty things about you (recently)…
64. Mike has still not put the Glenrothes market up in his BestBetting section.
69 - OK, that’s clearer.
For the record, I feel exceedingly uncomfortable every time I enter a Protestant Church, unless its High Church of England, when it just feels like the local Conservative Club during grace before meals.
68. How about AlaQueScoIceGreenNorland?
59-Bet you he does’nt though-gut feeling thats all.
56-James-you’ve just improved my mood-God I hope you’re right & we can get some upside for Palin.
22. ‘Why do they not choose some bright experienced go getter..’ Answers itself really - why would such a person want to stand for the Labour Party, especially at the moment?
54. Etc. isn’t it rather odd for ‘liberals’ who normally attack the right for ‘lecturing people about their lifestyles’ to now start doing precisely that themselves by piously intoning about how a teenage girl is too young to be having a child? You are as guilty of trying to foist your world view on other people as the religious right are.
66- I myself don’t make as much as 250K (my wife included), but IF I were to believe Obama, I would be crazy not to take the deal. Imagine: balanced budget, big investments in green technology, all healthcare costs taken care of, and all at zero cost to me (even though I make well above national average income)! Maybe even some tax CUTS! This really is paradise rediscovered!
15. Martin Coxall, greetings.
Am I mistaken in thinking you presented a TV series for BBC3? You did, right? Or was that another voluptuously gay Martin Coxall?
Just wanna know - is it worth it? I’m getting a vague sort-of offer to do the same, from the same channel. Is the money as bad as they say? Do they make you doss down in two star hotels etc?
“Nobody denies 17 is too young to start a family - least of all Palin. What I think she’d say is what happened happened…”
Perhaps educating horny teenagers about sex, conception and contraception instead of finger-waggingly insisting that they mustn’t do it — that’s worked a treat throughout history, hasn’t it? — might reduce the chances of these happenings happening.
Incidentally, don’t doubt for a second that if the religious right ever succeeds in getting Roe vs Wade overturned, they’ll be gunning for legal contraceptive methods next.
seanT - but you’re not voluptuosly gay…
77: it’s not worth it. All you end up doing is hanging out on pb.com ranting about the EU
@77:
Presented? No. Partook yes. That was me, yep. In my heavier days.
Hotels? I was living in an arid desert in winter on a diet of scavenged food and surrounded by fatties almost as angry as me and tittering media types.
I couldn’t possibly comment.
77-..is the drinks and “entertainment” budget unfairly limited. Do you have to be a paid up member of NuLab (guess not)…
I think these are valid questions, the licence fee only goes so far once you factor some “celeb” salaries, apparatchiks’ gold plated pensions, and sending far too many people to the Olympic jamboree (ps, what were the viewing figures?).
why do the democrats have to attack palin? mccain is the one who has to do the attacking, and thats where palin leaves him wide open on the counter punch. in fact this is pretty much what we are seeing from the democrats, they have barely said anything about her, it is kinda funny though seeing people like stars and stripes almost begging for the attacks to begin (pretty low in itself if you ask me).
@80:
It’s better than hanging out in the Kalahari desert ranting about why the Bushmen, in deference to a hundred thousand years of societal sophistication, haven’t yet got the hang of basic agriculture.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b008tjt4
Ah, I see. It was a reality show in which “eight enormously overweight British people volunteered to live as hunter gatherers”
and you were one of the…
Ahem.
Don’t worry about it mate, I won the Bad Sex Award for the worst piece of erotic writing in an entire literary year, and I just sold my thriller in its 20th territory.
Critics are like bathroom scales: best ignored.
I will make further inquiries as to the dossing-down aspect of my putative job offer.
83-So the Dems are innocent on all this-DO ME A FAVOUR.
49. Symbolism is a huge, huge thing. Having a mixed race guy as the most powerful man in the the world is hugely symbolic. Ask many black people about this. I’m guessing you are white so to you having someone who looks like you in charge is normal, so too for me, but for black people it’s unheard of. That’s why, simply by Obama’s election, the world changes.
84 “why the Bushmen, in deference to a hundred thousand years of societal sophistication, haven’t yet got the hang of basic agriculture.”
Have you tried planting turnips in the Kalahari?
69/62. The Democrat’s and the left, (loony or strait), in both the US and here, are clearly scared witless by the advent of Sarah Palin.
The attacks by leaders (of the left), and bloggers alike have certainly reached new depths of venom and spite.
Why is this? It’s because McCain has brought a vivacious, intelligent and strong woman to be his VP, thereby knocking Obama off the front page of a fawning media.
Whatever the personal problems of family Palin, (and dont we all have them),I’m certain, (that word again), that she will overcome them at the RNC convention this week. Equally I am sure that by week’s end there will be a McCain bounce.
87. Settle down, he hasn’t been elected yet.
65 Paul M. Thanks, I hadn’t seen that ad. Shays is certainly a rare beast in New England although his bi-partisanship wasn’t too evident when he was attacking Obama on the Larry King Show last week.
Have you tried planting turnips in the Kalahari?
Is that some kind of a euphemism…?
Perhaps The Toon should be bought by Northern Rock (with a little help from the Treasury, perhaps?)
@85:
They wanted an angry fat poof with a posh accent. It’s a niche I’m happy to fill.
Two things (1) I was happy to do it because I got the opportunity to live with and as a small group of neolithic Kalahari Bushmen as a ‘hunter-gatherer’, which was as fascinating as it was expectedly unsuccesful.
(2) I was enormously overweight, now I’m just a bit chubby. I was 21st-ish during the programme. Now I’m a manageably svelte 15 1/2 st.
The BBC, however, did not make me thin.
BTW …. I’m not sure if it’s been noted but there’s now an Intrade Market on Palen withdrawing as McCain Veep.
53. Where did I say the election should be invalid if McCain wins? Feel free to attack me all you want on anything I have said but disagree with but don’t attack me on things I haven’t written. The fact remains that some people won’t vote for Obama simply because he is black, and these people could be enough to swing an election. But that’s democracy if it happens: racists have a vote, and are entitled to a vote.
weathercock - does the phrase “cognitive dissonance” mean anything to you?
Personally, I think both Obama and McCain would be fine Presidents. I will wake up happy on November 5, irrespective of who won (albeit slightly richer if McCain does).
But claiming that the Deomcrats are ’scared witless’ by the Palin pick is absurd. Are you able to discount all the polling evidence? The Luntz focus groups?
Palin was a gamble. An audacious one that may pay off. But claiming that - because she is being attacked - the Dems must be hiding down a hole frightened out of their wits is ridiculous. If the Republicans got Jesus Christ to be their VP candidate, I can assure you the Democrats would be on the attack.
94 - Hmm, I don’t know whether to upset that I have failed to see this huge cultural masterpiece or upset that my hard earned cash funded it.
94 The BBC, however, did not make me thin.
So what was your secret Martin?
@99:
Gastric banding.
Every time I have another band fill, Michael Gove weeps himself to sleep.
94. So you’re like the “punchy Christopher Biggins after six lagers”?
Sweet. That’s a good niche. Lotsa work.
BTW has someone pointed out (they probably have) that “ed” was talking TOTAL AND UTTER BOLLOCKS on the previous thread?
He claimed the UK was doing better economically than the US. Yeah, right. According to the OECD the US is now expected to grow 1.8% this year - a sharp UPWARDS revision. Meanwhile the UK, it says, is the “weakest” of the G7 economies, and will probably contract for the rest of the year, and maybe beyond.
F***ing lefties. Why can’t they just admit it? They screwed up. They f***ed the whole country. They are idiots. They are crap. This Labour government is a moral disaster. All they do is lie and scheme and kill people in unthreatening foreign countries. UGH.
I hope all lefties in Britain get weird polyps on their faces. They smell.
96. What about those who wont vote for Obama because he is a vacuous opportunist? They can’t be dismissed as ‘racist’.
97 - If the Republicans managed to get Jesus Christ on the ticket the Democrats would claim it as proof that the GOP were in thrall to the religious right!
Here’s a question for those of you with your knickers in a twist about the Palin selection:
Suppose a male vice presidential pick (Joe Biden, John Edwards, Al Gore, whoever) had a wife who had just given birth to a Down’s Syndrome baby, with all the disruption to family life that that entails; and had a teenage son who’d just got a schoolgirl pregnant, and who was facing pressure to marry his pregnant girlfriend. Would you say the father should put his family first?
I think I probably would. A teenage lad needs his father around to put him back on the right track; a baby needs care and attention. But it’s a difficult call - and not one I imagine any parent with political ambitions would like to face.
What no one has mentioned, however, is how well positioned Joe Biden is at least to stand up to the Palin situation (without, of course, making any comment on it). We heard last Wednesday how Biden almost gave up his Senate seat to care for his infant children… and, of course, still takes the Amtrak home to Delaware each night to be with his family. The contrast must remain implicit, but a few Biden bio spots wouldn’t go amiss right now.
87- But its a sad statement that, for both his supporters and detractors, Obama’s race is such a big deal. If aliens came down from space to observe our attitudes and behaviors, and they were oblivious to skin color differences, they would be quite at a loss to explain how we view each other. Will the color of Obama’s hide change the world? Of course not. How about the content of his character? Didn’t somebody once say something about that? If the history of the U.S. ends up being consumed by nothing but a series of “firsts” for various self-identifying constituencies, it will be a sad history indeed.
101 - Can’t we just compromise and say that the lefties f’d the UK and the righties f’d the US with lefty policies…
103: more like the religious left… (Jesus was more of a tax-and-spend kind of guy…)
87-So he deserves to be presidente solely on the basis of being black? (or mixed race or whatever)
99.
I used to be distinctly chubby too.
I found that stopping drinking beer, eating regular meals, less computer nerdness, and cycling approx 38 km commute most days worked wonders (especially the ‘no beer’ bit).
Tis not rocket science…..
87-Yes i’m White but symbolism is’nt enough to run The White House.
89-You’ve cheered me up as much as James’s comments about Palin-there’s hope yet.
105 - Personally I’m waiting for the first cross-dresser to run for president to watch the apoplexy of the right and the comics doing endless jokes about the person being both President & First Lady!
105. I don’t think race would be such an issue were it not for the palpable sense that Obama only has the candidacy BECAUSE of his skin colour. Would it really have been an issue had there been a more experienced black politician on the ticket, Colin Powell for the GOP for instance?
51 - The last time Newcastle won the league was before Arsenal had won the league for the first time. There is underachievement and then there is NUFC.
Brown looks like he’s on drugs at the moment. Its very worrying. He’s clearly not all there at the moment. “I’m just getting on with the job”. The job apparrently being to appear mentally ill.
97 Robert
“Are you able to discount all the polling evidence? The Luntz focus groups?”
It may be that the daughter’s pregnancy will change the polling evidence, but up to now the polling evidence has been that the Palin pick stepped on the Obama bounce, surely?
The Luntz focus group was at odds with that.
58 - “The worst would be if McCain had to dump her for some reason in the weeks to come. ”
Like the opposition with Brown in this country Democrats would be well served trying to keep Palin in place, it’s a gift in comparison to what they could have been facing.
One pointer that will be indicative. See how many times the Obama camp mentione the baby issue over the next week and compare that to how many times the McCain camp mention it.
113. What about the Liberal Democrats?
One more point.
I entirely respect Sarah Palin, and I feel for the Palin family.
But had the teenage son or daughter of a Democratic running mate been responsible for a pregnancy, I have no doubt that the religious right would not view this as a “private family matter” that reflects the complexities of the “real world”. Instead James Dobson would be using 1 Timothy 3 to argue that parents who cannot manage their families well are unfit to govern the country.
Hopefully, the Palin family’s example will encourage some American conservatives to treat those caught in this situation with a little more grace, and a little less condemnation.
114-Surely you have to be mentally ill to even think about voting Labour, but I guess opinion is divided on the matter. One against the rest!
119..i endorse that!
118. Oh dear, the humbug quotient has just reached critical levels…
Back on the previous topic, that’s exactly what I’ve been saying I’d do if I was a Labour strategist. Fall on their swords, let a new government with a popular mandate deal with difficult issues and fade into the background. It’d be best for the country and for the Labour Party.
It wouldn’t be best for Gordon Brown though, which is why it won’t happen.
118- I think the American conservatives you’re referring to really only exist in movies made by the Hollywood Left about American conservatives.
Free vote’ call on Alexander ban
“Former Scottish first minister Jack McConnell has called for all MSPs to have a free vote when deciding the fate of Wendy Alexander this week.
She quit as Scottish Labour leader after failing to declare donations to her leadership campaign on her MSP register of interests in time.
Holyrood’s standards committee recommended she be temporarily excluded from parliament.
All MSPs will vote on Ms Alexander’s suspension on Thursday”
121: If Biden’s 17 year-old daughter was pregnant, I would be on here talking about how this reflects badly on the Democrats.
So, no, it’s not humbug.
87. I didn’t write that either. Two can play at that game, it’s quite easy:
So you are saying McCain deserves to win because he’s from Arizona and his wife is a Rodeo queen? That’s a crazy argument. You must be mad! Get of this board you dribbling fool!
8. makes you wonder if eventually we’ll end up discovering a new Shakespeare play: “The Terrible Tragedy of Mr Brown”.
Sounds more like a poem by the Great McGonagall…
A hail to James Gordon Brown,
strong of fist and stern of frown,
who rose to be PM from a Scottish town.
For three short years he held that crown,
while the country went into total meltdown…
re Biden, I would be writing “Surely this just reinforces the Christian Right’s point of view that teaching about sex just encourages promiscuity.”
123-Surely not the Hollywood Left so concerned about Global “Warming”/Climate “Change”/next mot juste that they flew to Denver in their private jets and drove around in their environmentally aware stretch limos while screaming blue murder at the Republicans for their failure to tackle the ishoo?
‘Total Lack of Irony Watch’
“McCain’s campaign manager, Steve Schmidt, yesterday lashed out at what he deemed “offensive” and “demeaning” coverage ”
That would be Steve Schmidt, who learned his trade at the feet of Karl Rove.
125. I was referring to the post by Jack Peterson which I thought was at 118. Unless you are the same person…
118 — exactly!
51 113
Apart from the current owner of Newcastle, which millionaire - or better billionaire - in his right mind wants to travle to Newcastle to watch his team underachieve?
Manchester at least has an international airport so you can get in and out quickly. And the inhabitants don’t speak in a funnyy accent and are not so delusional about football: competition worlkd in Manchester.
Would any top class footballer in his prime want to go to Newcastle? Nope. (unless he was nuts as well) All the disadvantages of Manchester weather and no advantages…
133, that would be Newcastle, the football team currently sponsored by the People’s Bank of Britain?
Well, there we are. Brown would sponsor it. With our money. Jolly generous of him.
131. Robert has kindly stepped into the breach to defend me, for which I’m grateful.
If you think heartland America is just a creation of Hollywood liberals, you’ve clearly never read any of the American conservative media. I prescribe a week watching the 700 Club and listening to Focus on the Family broadcasts.
64. You can’t goad the Magic Sign , PfP, you should know that. Suggestion noted though.
No wounds needed licking on our part after glasgow east, however. Quite the reverse.
129- Meanwhile, it looks like New Orleans will not be destroyed by Hurricane Gustav:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2008-09-01-gustav-monday_N.htm
I wonder if this disappointment will be the first great test of Michael Moore’s newfound belief in the divine creator?
128 - The first episode of the West Wing has left-wing Director of Communications Toby Ziegler arguing sex education with Rev John Van Dyke on the right.
VAN DYKE: Show a teenage male a condom, and his mind will turn to thoughts of lust.
ZIEGLER: Show a teenage male a lug wrench and his mind will turn to thoughts of lust!
Love its politics or hate them, it is a great show!
You are putting words into my mouth now - it was someone else who made that remark about Hollywood etc. Or is the numbering all messed up?
If I were Gordon Brown now, I think I’d do heroin. Why the hell not?
I mean, what does he think when he looks in the mirror? What does he see? He is now, without question, going to be regarded as one of the Great Losers of British Politics. A clueless, lying, self aggrandising idiot who conspired for ten years to bring down his charming and hugely popular predecessor. Just so he could then lead his party to disaster.
It can’t be fun, knowing this - knowing that you are Gordon Brown -a national joke. So why carry on? What’s the fun in being a jowly old Hector of Ineptitude, a sad, lumbering, ideologically incontinent buffoon whose idea of a relaunch is to scrap a tax - then reinstate it six seconds later when everyone laughs?
If you are Gordon Brown everyone hates you. Those that don’t hate you despise you. Even those that “like” you admit you are a git.
He must know this. So why doesn’t he just think - f*** it, I’m gonna do some heroin! A ten bag of the beige. Just do it, Gordo. Just buy a baggie, sneak upstairs at Downing Street, and get the old Alcan out. And have a good long chase.
It would be good for you. It would also be good for the country. We NEED you hiding in an attic, gouching out on heroin - what we don’t need is you actually trying to do something. Because when you actually try and do something, you make everything worse.
Just Say Yes, Prime Minister.
Oops, I see that was SaS’s comment at 123, in which case I take 135 back! But I think the original point still stands.
139- There’s something funky about the numbering today, ‘mede.
141. But what was the original point?
135- Where are all these hypothetical hordes of Christian conservatives calling for the burning at the stake of Palin’s daughter? It’s easy to cast aspersions on people you don’t know based on words you’ve put in their mouth that you hypothesize they’d be likely to say.
Meanwhile Ron Paul is kicking up more fuss than Hilary ever did, can’t see it on the media though. Hmm.
With a line up like this that’s surprising, from Jesse Ventura to singer Aimee Allen from libertarian thinkers, lawyers and so on to the decidedly dodgy Grover Norquist.
Frankly, this sounds more fun than the proper convention.
http://www.rallyfortherepublic.com/
136 Shadsy - delighted to hear you came out of Glasgow East unscathed!
140-His whole career seems to have been built on hiding and hoping it all goes away. When it doesn’t he comes out from whatever stone he’s hiding under and makes things….worse. Gordon Brown, the Scottish King Mudas.
144-I suspect it’s been neutered by the phrase: “the young couple, delighted by the pregnancy of Bristol, aim to marry in due course…” or some such anodyne press statement. BTW, looking at wikepedia seems Palin has previous - by running off with her “childhood sweetheart”. (BTW2-seems she also believes in “contraception”)
I notice a slight schadenfreude among the left today. Why does it seem ok to be two 16/17 year old back ticklers, but plenty of finger wagging if it’s two non-back tickling teenagers?
Now - the Presidential campaign 2008 computer game!
http://www.pastemagazine.com/articles/2008/09/the-political-machine-2008.html
“Players can choose to run as any of the primary candidates from this year’s election (the Ron Paul revolution lives!), or unlock notable historical and even fictional figures for some anachronistic electioneering. Politicians are represented on the U.S. map as gleaming bobbleheads, traipsing from state to state to give speeches, raise funds, and install scheming political operatives. The presentation is whimsical through and through, even subjecting your candidate to the questioning of fictionalized versions of Larry King and Bill O’Reilly.
Underneath this yuk-yuk exterior, though, is a rigorous simulation of the American electoral system, with all its quirks intact. As in real-life politics, cash rules the political process, and job one for any candidate is to raise funds. Candidates can set up grassroots organizations across the states or hold big-ticket fundraisers. Depending on their party affiliation, they may also come in contact with shadowy, deep-pocketed donors. Campaigning costs money, too, and besides battling your opponent on the issues, the trickiest part is remaining solvent throughout the election cycle.”
Non-sequiturs from Obama himself:
“In an interview on CNN’s Anderson Cooper 360 Monday night, Obama was asked about whether his experience in the U.S. Senate dealing with weather-related situations compares to Palin’s executive experience running the state of Alaska and as the small town mayor of Wasilla, Alaska.
“My understanding is that Gov. Palin’s town, Wassilla, has I think 50 employees. We’ve got 2500 in this campaign. I think their budget is maybe 12 million dollars a year – we have a budget of about three times that just for the month,” Obama responded.”
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/09/01/obama-defends-natural-disaster-experience/
Not only is Obama himself falling into the trap of imagining he’s running against Palin rather than McCain (a trap into which the interviewer cordially invited him), he also bizarrely compares his campaign budget to that of Wasilla, Alaska in making the argument that he has more experience in dealing with weather-related situations.
So is it McCain or Obama who’s showing signs of losing his marbles?
145-Has Jesse joined the Republican party? I knew he ran as an Independent.