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Now a poll that runs against the media narrative

November 2nd, 2008


    Unregistered pollster suggests a Cameron majority of 118

After a few weeks when every poll has had been presented as part of Brown’s great recovery, even if this wasn’t quite supported by the facts, we have a survey that suggests that all might not be well for Team Labour.

BPIX in the Mail on Sunday has these shares with comparisons on the previous survey at the start of October – CON 45%(-1): LAB 31%(+1): LD 13%(nc). The commons seat projects above are what happens when you put the BPIX shares in the UKPollingReport seat calculator.

Now I wish I could tell you how BPIX operates – why the firm always seems to show the lowest Lib Dem share, what the weightings were, how the calculations were made that produced these figures etc. etc. Alas I cannot.

You’ve been reading my monthly rant against BPIX for so long that it has become boring. I do know that the fieldwork is carried out by YouGov but that’s about it. Go to their website and you’ll find the same front page and only page that has been there for three years – that the site “iis under construction“.

So what can you deduce? Next to nothing is the answer although it has to be said that the pollster did pretty well before the last general election.

Given the fact the YouGov actually carries out the polling the stark difference between these numbers and the latest YouGov poll putting the Tories just 9% ahead is remarkable. Generally BPIX and YouGov are in the same broad territory. This time they are not.

This will, of course, provide some cheer to the Tories and it might be that there is some basis for this. But without being able to see the firm’s basic data you cannot come to a conclusion.

BY ELECTION POLL UPDATE: There’s a Glenrothes by election poll in the Scottish Sunday Express suggesting that Labour have a small lead over the SNP. The only report I can find is on Teletext and I do not know the pollster. The figures we have are Labour 26% to the SNP’s 23.5% which suggests that they are not following the standard practice of excluding the “don’t knows” and “won’t vote”.

There is a history of non-registered polls being carried out in Scotland – almost all of them reporting Labour leads on a scale which is never materialised. Such a survey ahead of Glasgow East reported a 17% Labour lead.

If this causes the Labour price to tighten and the SNP one to ease then there might be some betting bargains about. In July I made enough sufficient profits to fund a very nice holiday in the Pyrenees almost after my reading the the “SNP 17% lead” survey suggested that all was not right.

Live Glenrothes betting prices.

Mike Smithson






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