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Labour get within five points with YouGov

November 15th, 2008


CONSERVATIVES 41% (-1)
LABOUR 36% (+3)
LIB DEMS 14% (-1)

Labour back to General Election level of support

The first of tonight’s new national opinion polls is just out and has Labour narrowing even further the gap with the Tories. The five point margin, if repeated at a general election, puts a general election well within hung parliaments territory.

    My comparisons above are with the last poll from the pollster. No doubt the Sunday Times will follow its normal and deceptive practice of ignoring that survey and making the comparison with the last poll that is commissioned. RUBBISH.

The main consolation for the Tories is that they are still above the critical 40% level – if they fall below that then they would really be in trouble.

A lot of this is down to the squeeze on the Lib Dem vote which is a point further down. Whatever these numbers will give great heart to Gordon Brown and his team and underline the challenge that the financial crisis has created for the Tories.

We don’t know yet when the fieldwork was carried out and whether much of the survey took place before the Baby P row erupted.

It will be interesting to see whether there’s the same trend in the latest ComRes poll – also due out tonight.

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Mike Smithson






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