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Labour drop into the 20s with Populus

February 9th, 2009


CONSERVATIVES 42% (-1)
LABOUR 28% (-5)
LIB DEMS 18% (+3)

..and the LDs get a 3 point boost

The Populus survey for tomorrow’s Times will be published officially in a few minutes but I’ve just been given the tip off about the numbers from a normally reliable source. [The figures have now been confirmed – see the Times story here]

So Populus becomes the third pollster to be showing Labour back in the 20s – further evidence that the Brown bounce has almost totally collapsed. The 28% equals the share the party got in July.

Clearly the number that everybody has been waiting for is the Lib Dem share – following yesterday’s ICM survey that had the party on 22% – only a fraction short of what they got at the general election.
Each polling firm uses a different approach and the Populus methodology is not as friendly to Clegg’s party as ICM. The critical factor here is the direction.

So the pattern of the ICM poll is repeated here. Labour and the Tories dropping back with a boost for Clegg’s party. Clearly the 18% share is nothing like the ICM 22% but the direction is the same.

In the days leading up to the poll Clegg got quite a lot of media coverage and that is usually a big driver of the third party’s ratings. Add onto that the BJ4BW fiasco and the Lib Dems pick up part of the Labour decline.

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