CON 42(+2) LAB 30(+2) LD 18(-4)
…and Labour is back in the 30s again – just!
Well after the excitement of the last ICM and ComRes polls that had the Lib Dems at 22% the latest survey from ICM for the Guardian has the party at 18 points – with both Labour and the Tories showing a 2 point increase on the last survey from the firm a week an a half ago.
So the gap between the main parties is the same and the Tories will be happy to be there well into the 40s and Labour will feel quite satisfied being back in the 30s.
Nick Clegg’s party with be very disappointed by these findings because they come from the pollster that traditionally has the them on the highest levels – and it should be said has a good record for accuracy with the third party this far out from an assumed general election in May 2010.
A feature unique to ICM is the wording of their voting intention question: “The Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats and other parties would fight a new election in your area. If there were a general election tomorrow which party do you think you would vote for?”. Anthony Wells of UK Polling Report believes that the “in your area” element makes a difference because “…We know that people give very different answers if they are asked to say specifically how they would vote in their own constituency – people suddenly start taking into account tactical voting or what they think of their MP, and this normally increases Lib Dem support.”
My broad view is that the Lib Dems are going to be squeezed horribly in the LAB-CON battlegrounds. The big question is how they will do in the seats they are defending or in the Labour seats which they hope to take.
So where does this leave Brown Central? The answer is still under enormous pressure but maybe not enough for there to be a change of leaders.
I’m never one for over-emphasising non-voting questions but a majority of more than two to one, those is the survey say Labour would do better at the next election if it was led by someone else.
As regulars will know I have been arguing for years that Brown does not have the qualities required to win an election. This is all glaringly obvious yet the party gave him his coronation two years ago. More fool them.