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Is Labour heading for melt-down next Thursday?

May 29th, 2009

Populus reports a Euro vote slump to just 16%

A new Populus poll for the Times is out this evening and provides some comfort for the Tories but absolutely dreadful numbers for Labour in both Westminster and the Euro election voting intentions.

As has been suggested in recent posts on PB the big gainers for next Thursday EU election have been UKIP who look set to take second place. There are two sets of voting intention figures:

WESTMINSTER:
CON 41(+2) LAB 21(-6) LD 15 (-2)

EURO ELECTION:
CON 30 LAB 16 LD 12 UKIP 19 GRN 10 BNP 5

The Tories will take a lot of comfort from the Westminster 41% share and the fact that they are leading Labour by 20 points – almost double,

The Lib Dems will be a bit worred by the decline in both the Westminster and Euro numbers though a lot of that is probably down to the rise of the Greens.

But the real winners in this poll are UKIP. Their 19% EU election share is nothing short of sensational and could have a lasting effect on UK politics.

Whatever it’s going to be a long uncomfortable night at Number 10 a week on Sunday if the actual results are anything near these numbers. Could this be the trigger that ends Brown’s leadership? We shall see.

Betting. On William Hill political markets you can still get 11/8 on UKIP coming out with more European Parliament seats than Labour. Sounds good to me and I’ve put more on.

Mike Smithson






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