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Is the 45% turnout good news for the Tories?

July 24th, 2009

Does this mean that the better organised do better?

The first hard news from Norwich is that turnout was at just 45% which compares with 61% at the general election. This is lower than many were predicting and it might be recalled that at Crewe & Nantwich last year the figure was only two points short of the general election level.

The general theory of low turnouts is that the campaigns which benefit most are those that are best organised. They’re the ones to have been more likely to have got their vote out and the party with the best GOTV (Get Out The Vote) operation there yesterday was the Tory one.

So as well as being a certain winner on my turnout below 61% bet I’m pretty confident that my “Tories on more than 41%” bet is going to be profitable too.

On LBC just over an hour ago Ken Livingston asked me for my projection. I said CON 45%: LAB 20%: LD & GRN 15%. I think I’ve probably undershot on the Tories.

Not too long to wait.

Andrew Sparrow of the Guardian is doing a great live blog from the count.

This was the 2005 result UPDATED:-
Conservative: 15638 (33.2%)
Labour: 21097 (44.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 7616 (16.2%)
Green: 1252 (2.7%)
UKIP: 1122 (2.4%)
Other: 308 (0.7%)
Majority: 5459 (11.6%)

Mike Smithson