Will Keir Starmer face leadership challenge before the next general election?

Will Keir Starmer face leadership challenge before the next general election?

Smarkets have this market up on whether Sir Keir Starmer will face a leadership challenge before the next general election and I’m not sure what to make of this market. The polls apart from YouGov and Kantar seem to imply we’re generally in hung parliament territory and YouGov has the quirk* of having the Greens a lot higher than other pollsters. Given the year we’ve had it must worry Labour that they’ve only led in six of them, with five…

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Nicola, Queen of Scots

Nicola, Queen of Scots

The Scottish subsample from this week’s YouGov poll amused me immensely, obviously it is a sign that disillusionment with the SNP is such that people are now are moving over to a party that doesn’t even stand in Scotland subsamples of 143 are inherently unreliable and only people who don’t understand polling or betting rely on them. Researching the polling in Scotland, proper polls not subsamples, I noticed some things that really does deserve comment. The last time a party…

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Lessons from the worst episodes of our history

Lessons from the worst episodes of our history

55 years ago this week, a man-made landslide of coal mining by-product killed over 100 Welsh schoolchildren. It was a tragedy. It was preventable. And it got me thinking. Aberfan. Grenfell. Piper Alpha. The Harrow & Wealdstone Crash. The Kings Cross Fire. Hillsborough. Harold Shipman. The Herald of Free Enterprise. Mad Cow Disease. Reading about these disasters, so varied in many ways, commonalities emerge. 1. Disaster has many causes, but systems are at the heart Tragedy comes from a stunning…

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Those saying Brexit right down to just 38%

Those saying Brexit right down to just 38%

The second lowest level since the referendum The same YouGov poll that had the CON lead back in double figures also had what for the government is the second-worst Brexit tracker finding on record. The latest split is in the chart above. This is a tracker that was started in the aftermath of the outcome in June 2016 and has been repeatedly asked by the pollster since. One feature we have seen in this polling is that women are taking…

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My money is on these people giving Boris a bloody nose

My money is on these people giving Boris a bloody nose

I got on at 20/1 – the same as my first C&A LD bet Smarkets have just opened their market on the Old Bexley and Sidcup by-election and the initial odds are very similar to the start of betting Chesham and Amersham in May. I have had a punt on Labour at 20/1 which is the same as my first at Chesham. Quite simply this the best opportunity about at the moment for Labour to do anything that could stall…

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