On the day of the 1st anniversary of the vaccine

On the day of the 1st anniversary of the vaccine

This should have been a very big day for BJ’s government because it is the first anniversary of the launch of the UK’s vaccine programme in which the country was a world leader. No doubt plans were in hand to maximise the positive impact for the government and get the subject over what is now being called #PartyGate. A year ago it was the vaccine that was the great success story for BJ and his ministers and we saw over…

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Why the Tories could lose the North Shropshire by-election

Why the Tories could lose the North Shropshire by-election

In face of the chaotic last six years in British politics, it can be easy to lose sight of a constant phenomenon: governing parties do not defend by-election seats very well. Since 1979, governing parties have had to defend 65 seats in parliamentary by-elections but have only managed to win just under half of them (30). Of these 65 seats, Conservative governments have had to defend 43, winning an even lower proportion with 14 (33%). In fact, more Liberal Democrat…

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How much of the GRN vote will LAB get at the election itself?

How much of the GRN vote will LAB get at the election itself?

Above are the latest Westminster voting and as can be seen one of the big trends in recent months has been some very good polling numbers for the Greens. The party got, let’s remember, just 2.7% of the GB vote at GE2019. YouGov, in particular, has them at triple their GE2019 share. Given that one of the features of the past two general elections is that more than half of those saying GRN six months beforehand actually went LAB then…

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Shropshire North – nine days to go

Shropshire North – nine days to go

CON still strong favourite and LDs ease a touch Latest Betfair prices on the Shropshire North by-election have the Tories at 62.5% with the LDs out a touch to 34%. Labour has edged up to a 2% chance following the publication of a so-called “poll” by LabourList that has the LDs on just 11% with LAB not too far behind to Tories. In publishing this LabourList is putting its credibility on the line and this will be remembered. Clearly some…

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In North Shropshire the betting’s getting tighter

In North Shropshire the betting’s getting tighter

A week on Thursday we have the Shropshire North by-election to fill the vacancy created by the resignation of Owen Paterson and as can be seen in the betting chart the Lib Dems are edging up. Having tipped the party strongly in the Chesham and Amersham election back in June I have to say I have less confidence about an LD gain from CON here. This does not mean I don’t think an LD gain will happen. C&A met all…

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The new boundaries make Cooper’s seat much safer

The new boundaries make Cooper’s seat much safer

In a Tweet that appears to be in response to TSE’s header yesterday on Yvette Cooper’s leadership chances, the Indy’s John Rentoul has posted the above. For the boundary changes appear to be very helpful to the former Labour cabinet minister. Thus the possibility of her not being an MP after the next election is just 19% according to the Electoral Calculus projection based on the new boundaries. Of course if the election takes place before the changes come into…

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Let’s party Number 10 style

Let’s party Number 10 style

The panto season appears to have started early this year. Appropriately enough it relates to a Xmas party which happened at 10, Downing Street around this time last year. Oh, yes it did! Oh, no it didn’t! say others – mostly unmemorable junior Ministers. And even if it did no rules were broken. A big fuss about nothing, yet others will say. Hmmm ….. those who were fined for breaking the Covid rules might disagree. The hospitality venues who lost…

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Voodoo polling v proper polling (festive edition)

Voodoo polling v proper polling (festive edition)

One of the earliest lessons I learned about opinion polls was that an unweighted poll, no matter how large the sample size is, isn’t an accurate barometer of the public. The most famous voodoo poll was the 1936 Literary Digest poll that had a sample size of over 2 million predicted that Alf Langdon would beat FDR in the 1936 Presidential election. It was only 39% out on the actual result as FDR as won by over 24% of the…

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