Tamworth – the next by-election?

Tamworth – the next by-election?

So far at least Mr. Pincher (which seems an unfortunate name given the circumstances) has not resigned as an MP and we await the inquiry into what actually happened that caused this whole affair to explode yesterday. My sense is that Pincher is not going to be pushed into resignation as easy as one or two other Tory MPs recently. After all he was Deputy Chief Whip and should be in a better position to defend himself. He is said…

Read More Read More

Tories drop to new low in Ipsos “fit to govern” tracker

Tories drop to new low in Ipsos “fit to govern” tracker

Getting worse numbers even than when Corbyn led LAB Of all the recent polling that has been published the above chart from Ipsos looks the most worrying for the Tories and not just the incumbent at number 10. For much of the past 12 years the Tories have always had the edge on this measure – yet look at it now. From a 46% rating at the time of GE2019 that has now slumped to just 21%. Even Labour during…

Read More Read More

What is it about Johnson’s Tory party at the moment?

What is it about Johnson’s Tory party at the moment?

The overnight news about the former Deputy Chief Whip, Christopher Pincher, is the latest story related to a Tory MP that has got people like me to be rushing to Wikipedia to find out what happened in his seat at GE2019. For the record, Pincher gained Tamworth from LAB at GE2010 and has increased his majority there at every election he has fought. At GE2019 he chalked up 66.3% of the vote and was 42.6% ahead of second place Labour….

Read More Read More

17% say BREXIT’s made life better – 45% say worse

17% say BREXIT’s made life better – 45% say worse

Ipsos has a reputation for developing the most interesting questions on which to poll and this late survey is no exception. Six years after the referendum has BREXIT made life better or worse? As can be seen the proportion of who think the UK’s exit from the EU has made their daily life worse has risen from three in ten in June 2021 to 45% now. Seven in ten of those who voted Remain feel this is the case, up…

Read More Read More

For CON comparisons we should use the LAB/LD/GRN aggregate

For CON comparisons we should use the LAB/LD/GRN aggregate

Whenever new polls come out we tend to look for just one figure and that is the Labour lead over the Conservatives.I would suggest that we are being too simplistic. The experience of the by-elections last week suggests that the next general election is going to see quite a bit more tactical voting against the Conservatives. Let us recall that Labour which had come second at the general election in the Tiverton and Honiton seat was reduced to losing its…

Read More Read More

Public support for the rail strike is increasing

Public support for the rail strike is increasing

This polling from Opinium is really quite remarkable because it is very rare for there to be public backing of industrial action that is going to make the daily lives of many people even harder. It suggests as well that the reliance of Johnson on his team on there being public backing for their approach is based on wrong assumptions. If there is other polling showing a similar picture then ministers have a problem.

Nine months of Johnson exit betting turbulence

Nine months of Johnson exit betting turbulence

All the possible years are coming together One of the liveliest political betting markets over the last few months has been on which year Johnson will finally cease to be Prime Minister. As can be seen things have moved sharply and there is is at the moment no real consensus about when he is going to go. He has made statements to the effect that he will not go of his own accord which means that he has to be…

Read More Read More

It looks like the Roe v Wade decision is helping the Democrats

It looks like the Roe v Wade decision is helping the Democrats

The above polling table from Fivethirtyeight features the most recent generic voting intentions for the November midterm elections in the US and gives an initial indication of how the Supreme Court’s decision of Rowe v Wade is impacting on voters. Quite simply before last week’s announcement, the Republicans had been enjoying a reasonable lead. The most recent polls now have the Democrats ahead. This is early days and we need to see much more polling but the first Tuesday in…

Read More Read More