ICM boost for Simon Hughes
January 25th, 2006UPDATED 0832
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Party President now back as firm second favourite
An unusual online poll in the Guardian this morning should make good reading for the Lib Dem party president, 
Simon Hughes, in his bid to become leader.
The pollster, which usually carries out phone surveys, used the internet to interview 90 Tory voters, 90 Labour, 90 Lib Dems and 23 who supported other parties to ask about their views of the three leadership challengers. The group split Hughes 51: Campbell 29: Huhne 20 in saying who would be best to restore party fortunes.
Amongst the section of those surveyed who were Lib Dems the split was Hughes 62: Campbell 18: Huhne 20.
The Guardian says that a similar survey was carried out by the pollster during the Tory leadership contest which showed strong support for David Cameron.
This clearly is a big boost for Simon Hughes who has seen his position flagging in recent days following the Mark Oaten resignation.
Some points to note are:-
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What punters desperately need is a poll of party members and we have not had one of those since before Charles Kennedy’s resignation.
Clearly the strong contrast in the respondents’ view of Hughes and Campbell could make this survey very influential and as we said on Monday - do not rule Simon out yet. For latest betting click here
My betting: I have now laid most of my Chris Huhne bet and have put some of my profits on Simon Hughes. This race is very difficult to call but I have strong positions on all three candidates.
Mike Smithson
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As mentioned in the previous thread, Adrian Graves the Lib Dem Candidate in Suffolk West has defected to the Conservatives. He stood for election to the European Parliament in my seat of London South Inner in 1994.
The winner of that contest was the then Labour MEP Richard Balfe who defected a few years ago. Our candidate was former mayoral hopeful and winner of the sensational Queensbridge, Hackney by-election - Andrew Boff.
Is this the first time that the three major parties’ candidates in a parliamentary election have ever all ended up in the same party?
The Hughes drift owed more to Oaten than to Hughes so there was bound to be a correction. The poll probably reflects his higher public profile. What is more interesting is that Ming and Huhne are more-or-less equal which may be bad news for favourite backers.
You’re right - the size of the sample makes it meaniless.
I don’t mean to be bitchy, Andy but I love the idea of “the sensational Queensbridge, Hackney by-election” - bit like chanting “We’re the famous Yeovil Town.”
On a more serious note, the ICM survey in this morning’s Guardian really IS sensational. Allowing for an imperfect methodology (internet panel rather than focus group and three groups of committed voters rather than a large group of floaters) it’s still very, very good news for Hughes and truly awful for Ming. It’s a predictor as to how the various candidates would fare with the public as leader. None of them are Cameronian in their cut-through appeal but Hughes’ clear lead over the others gives Lib Dem activists permission to vote with their hearts without ignoring their heads.
Some people find this Americanisation of politics whereby an aspiring politician can have his or her whole political fate decided by the impressionistic whim of a focus group truly terrifying but it’s the future, like it or not. Why? Because democratic politics in the televisual age is a bit like the Darwinian brutality of the sexual market place. Anyone who has ever engaged in the eternal teenage ritual of standing on the edge of the dancefloor at the local disco knows that some people are effortlessly popular while others are doomed to be eternal wallflowers. Those politicians with personal magnetism, and that essential but hard-to-define quality ‘likeability’, have a huge advantage over others (many of whom went into politics precisely as a salve to fragile egos damaged on the edge of the aforementioned dancefloor). Of course there are other factors but brains, integrity and indefatigability (!) are always running to catch up with charisma…
Lurker: It was sensational in terms of the result. Dictionary.com defines sensational as “outstanding” or “spectacular”, two words which are justifiable in seeing a Conservative candidate go from a poor 4th place to 1st in a Hackney seat.
There’s money to be made in Betfair and other markets now. Sentiment moves surprisingly slowly. It took a long time before the full impact of Ming’s unfortunate preformance at PMQ two weeks ago feed through, although the change of direction was immediate.
Althought Ming might remain favourite, he will not be odds-on by the end of the day, bar a sterling performance at PMQ today. Sell him at 1.9 and buy him at 2.5-3 in the evening, if you still believe in him.
Hughes can still be had at 4.33 at StanJames. Buy now and lay him at BF later today.
Fair enough, Andy. But if my son dribbles past five players and lobs the keeper in a school game it’s sensational - just not wildly significant to those in the world beyond…
Mike,
I am sorry you think more about your “punting” than about political values.
Beth
On a previous thread the usual Lib Dem suspects were rubbishing the significance of the defection of Adrian Graves to the Tories, saying he is insignificant etc. That is not how his profile on the LD website paints him.
Apparently “he is a Fellow of the Royal Society for the Arts, Commerce and Manufactures and the Chartered Institute of Public Relations. He is also registered with the Institute as a lobbyist. He is a former Vice-Chair of the Liberal Democrats’ Parliamentary Candidates Association. He stood as European Parliamentary Candidate for London South Inner in 1994 and as Parliamentary Candidate for West Suffolk in 1997.”
So he is not some fly-by-night one off LD candidate, he is a long standing member who has twice stood for Parliament and had enough
standing to be elected/appointed as Vice-Chairman of the Liberal Democrat Parliamentary Candidates Association!
A welcome addition. I look forward to the next tranche.
Boff will be put back in his box come May. I must admit I have nothing but contempt for people who defect. Work to make the changes from within. How anyone can say that the mood music played by Cameron represents a sufficeint change of direction to switch is beyond me. I would always hope the electorate would punish a defector - regardless of party or direction of travel.
10 - mac - I think many people would share your view, unless of course they are the party receiving the defector!
Mike, A very quick ‘google’ revealed this (from the ICM web site) dated 19-20 October, that showed DC on 44% and DD on 20%.
http://www.icmresearch.co.uk/reviews/2005/Guardian%20-%20Oct/Guardian%20-%20Oct%20Poll.asp
The key issue is not whether someone defects - but the manner and motive. Highly stage managed defections with Campbell-scripted lines designed to inflict maximum damage on former friends - that’s contemptible. So is a rat jumping into a plumb position. But someone who has either (a) changed their mind or (b) feels the political ground has shifted under their feet and who defects in a quiet and dignified fashion, refusing to be used as a toxic weapon by his new allies - that’s fair enough.
Rik. Is that your cover story for when you come back to your SDP roots, in the hope that you get your 15 minutes of fame?
“Non-entity , beaten Tory PPC defects”
“Mr Willis said that he was a signifcant gain for the LDs as he had once been nasty about Edward Heath on politicalbetting.com and knew a few people”
C’mon Rik. This was a non-story played up by a media that want an agenda at the moment. I think it is very sad of the Indy to go with it. It makes them look far more stupid than it does the Lib Dems.
Bless you Paul - you always say the nicest things
14 - Do you really have to be so boorish, so early
. Can’t you wait until after the pub has closed?
re John O. 12. I do not think that that can be the poll referred to - because the story states specifically that it came out during the Tory conference which was two weeks earlier and while Davis was still front runner.
It says “…The survey mirrors one carried out by ICM for the Guardian during the Conservative leadership contest, which suggested David Cameron, not the then frontrunner David Davis, was most appealing to voters. It was widely circulated at the party conference as evidence that Mr Cameron had the skills to win over new voters.
I cannot find that survey anywhere - I’ll ask Jackie Ashley to look into it!!
Mike,
I think this is the one you want:
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/polls/story/0,11030,1583318,00.html
Mike, is this one?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/guardianpolitics/story/0,,1583315,00.html
Well did anyone see in the Standard the suggestion that Laws is rumoured to be thinking of moving along the opposition benches?
…And possibly this ‘version’ too that claims to have been sponsored by the Beeb
http://www.politics.co.uk/party-politics/conservative-party/cameron-favourite-in-tory-poll-15061876.htm
Main article updated
Thanks 18 & 19. Sorry to have even doubted the Guardian. I’m changing the main story.
John O. In these days of 24 hour drinking you never know when that might be
Ultimately I thought Rik’s post was a bit silly. Anyone can boost or unboost a cv for their own end. If it was someone like David Laws it might have been a story. But who is this man?
So having been rejected as a bachelor on Monday, Hughes is now back in the running. Truly a week is a long time in politics. I’m not taking the poll too seriously though.
But Peter, you should. The bad news is that Ming was the most recognised, but made little impact with voters. I think that that is important.
24. but in meantime he got the support of Peter Tatchell, Ken Livingstone and the Tory London Assembly Group!
No party is different nationally or locally. When someone defects they always get slagged off by their own party and its “insignificant” etc. Daft, everyone knows it has some significance. All parties do this much better if they just said, everyone makes their own mind up, its up to them, we respect their view. The public would better respect that. Some might even take up voting!!!
How seriously should we take this survey? The methodology seems very unusual. My own instinct is that, even if flawed, it has picked up on something very significant.I’m going to put some money on Hughes. now,
BF market has started moving. StanJames cut Hughes odds from 4.33 to 3.75, but still better than BF, so going to fall further. Not to late to make a buck, especially in laying Ming.
Rik: “He is a former Vice-Chair of the Liberal Democrats’ Parliamentary Candidates Association.”
Might this not be a case of “Them as can do….Them as can’t talk about it?”
25 - Ming has made even less impact with Lib Dem supporters and he may be advised to use PMQs to ask a question which has some resonance for LibDems, unlike the last two weeks. He needs to give members some reason to vote for him.
Incidentally, is it just me who finds Ming’s physical movements reminiscent of Michael Foot?
Just a quick mention on Dunf.& West Fife. It’s been announced that 700 jobs are to go at Lexmark in Rosyth, which may turn voters to the SNP. I’ll be visiting shortly so can hopefully give y’all a better update of the situation on the ground.
1-Andy
Interesting that a PPC and long term activist like Adrian Graves whom I have known for many years is quitting based on the Cameron effect.
Makes you wonder how many others have now thrown in the towel based on the latest scandals,not long to wait,all will be revealed in May.
Probably only a matter of time before some of the MP’s follow,particualrly in Liberal marginal seats.
1. 7. 10. Don’t be so sure that Andrew Boff is going to be “put back in his box” in May. It was a sensational result - there may be others to follow in Hackney. Labour politicians have ignored what they consider to be “their voters” for too long. I canvassed council flats in a neighbouring ward last night and plenty of people were happy to see Conservatives at their door.
Good news. There’s no reason to assume Hughes is not going to win this contest. He is by far the most dynamic contendor.
It could be a dark day for Galloway, he will be booted out of Big Brother and his career could be in tatters. He’s made a fool of himself in Big Brother with his confrontations and attacks against other housemates and now he has to face the music and a possible bankruptcy if the Telegraph appeal does not go his way.
35. Good grief!! A post from Printz with which one can agree.
9-Rik
Spot on Rick,I have known Adrian since school and quite frankly am amazed to read that he has switched, knowing how much time ,energy and committment he has put into the Liberals over so many years.
I thought Adrian Graves came across quite well on Today early this morning. I am disappointed he has gone and genuinely wish him the best, but it is still a bit of a non-story.
The reality is that people do change their views about how best to achieve the sort of society they want to achieve, and sometimes over underlying aims too. It is not unusual on a local level for people to become disillusioned and leave a party and sometimes to defect - I believe my local Lib Dem council candidate in May for example is a very recent defector (2005 I think) from the Tories and a former Tory councillor. Of course, when you get a succession of these things and if some were at senior levels, that would amount to a real trend.
As it is, we are looking at one man who is no doubt a decent chap but was never very likely to be an MP taking a view - as I say, best of luck to him. It would have frankly been rather surprising if after a very public appeal by DC and a period which has not been pleasant for the Lib Dems if nobody in the middle rank of the party (let’s say constituency chairmen, recent PPCs and council group leaders - i.e. a couple of thousand people) had heeded the call.
Ouch ! All those Lib Dems who regard Lady Caine, sorry Emma Nicholson and “Lord” Dykes as major political giants now disregard any of there people who jump as nobodies.
No doubt various Labour and Conservative contributers will regale us with quotes from Focus leaflets about the importance of Nicholson (who appears to have stabbed in the back every leader in every party who have rewarded her with totally undesevred positions) Nicholson, Dykes and the gloriously talented Carol Shaw in Brent.
As for Andrew Boff losing in May - this is a betting site put down or be careful.
38 - I have to agree James, it’s not much of a story. I’m surprised it made it onto the Today programme to be quite honest. It would have been a completely different case if it had been a high profile MP rather than a low profile PPC.
37 - john - Yes just reading his profile one could see that he was not some flightly recent joiner. However much Paul Lloyd and others may wish to disparage Adrian Graves, when someone of his standing defects, it does rather say something about the party he is leaving.
From what I hear and suspect, the first of several MP defectors is being lined up for the right moment.
Let’s face it, if no-one switched party at any level, then we’d always have the same government, wouldn’t we? {What’s that? We DO have the same government?
]
The other side of the coin is the people who think “thank goodness they’ve finally got a grip, now we’ve a chance to start going places.” This doesn’t fit the media narrative at the moment, however.
We have a constituency dinner on Friday, with quite a well known guest speaker, so it will be interesting to judge the mood of the members. Within the activists its certainly BAU. One of the advantages of being a localist party at a time like this is that national issues can seem a bit remote.
41 - Rik, quite possibly one or two MPs may defect. Fine, OK … the Tory party didn’t disappear when it happened, did it? Liberalism isn’t going to go away and if it takes hold in the Conservative Party (an awfully big if) then there are going to be an lot of disillusioned members leaving your lot. Which, given “natural wastage”, would be somewhat careless.
OTOH, perhaps if we all defected to the Tories as entryist Liberals, we could introduce Liberalism by the back door and get a national network of clubs to boot
Galloway wins libel, and I suspect he’ll be out tonight of the Big Brother house in time to celebrate!
41: “the first of several MP defectors is being lined up for the right moment.”
LOL, you never stop working for the party do you Rik…
What interests me, as ever, is what people aren’t talking about - in this case the different political philosophies of the candidates (Campbell and Hughes) - such a contrast to the Tory leadership battle :).
Surely (part of) the case for Hughes is that Campbell offers a continuation of the “plague on both your parties” (POBYP) pitch that has been the LD offer for over a generation. Hughes could reposition the LDs as the British New Democrats, taking such TU money as is offered and doing tacit deals with the Greens (and, for Westminster, the SNP and Plaid) in a few places (Brighton perhaps) - with or without borrowing the title.
Most Lib Dems on this board would no doubt be horrified, but the unexamined assumption behind their position is that New Labour will hold together after an election defeat. After 1997, the Tories did hold together - just, although I’d say that was more due to the ineptitude of the populist right than their own efforts.
There is a serious Lib Dem problem - suppose that, after the next election, Cameron’s Tory-lites are 30-40 seats ahead of Labour but 10-20 short of a majority and the Lib Dems, having fought (under whoever) on POBYP have 40 seats - Cameron takes office as a minority and dares the opposition to bring him down. No offers - not even PR for local government - a fair wind from the mainstream media (self-censorship of sexual shortcomings of government MPs, etc) - poll ratings like NuLabs in the late 1990s - are the Lib Dems just going to sit and wait for a change in the weather?
It would be a bit surprising for Lib Dem MPs to defect so soon after Cameron becomes Tory leader. Yes, there may be some tempted, but they should at least see if Cameron means what he says (beneath the rhetoric and spin), and if he has the support of the Tory party with him.
I suspect the Tories are putting out juicy offers to the brightest and best of the Lib Dem MPs, because they still have a pretty poor front bench themselves. Should there be any high profile Lib Dem defectors (and I suspect there won’t assuming Campbell wins), I can’t see George Osborne lasting long as Shadow Chancellor.
43 - tabman - I am not suggesting that the LDs will disappear (sadly), merely that the party has peaked and is probably on the way back down now.
47 - Oh purrrrrleeeease!
48 - however, I think that if Hughes wins the leadership, and he makes any move to purge the Orange Bookers - Rik, you will be able to take your pick of Lib Dems to shuffle across to the Tory benches in time.
46 - constitutional question, here. What happens if the Lib Dems decide to support some Tory legislation they agree with (there might be some!), vote against the stuff they don’t, but support the government in no confidence motions? Does that then become de facto coalition?
49 - SBS (named in honour of Paddy?
) Hughes won’t be purging the OB’ers. Look at all the mood music that’s been coming out of the Hughes camp recently - all about the need for fair taxes not high taxes, and how we have to be credible on economic issues. Hughes is not stupid; he knows where the centre of gravity of his front bench talent lies. This is also nothing new. I heard him speak in September about the need to face hard truths (to an audience of activists) and he was not well received. He also praised Nick Clegg.
This could prove very beneficial to us - Simon to do the crowd pleasing stuff whilst his high-powered economic team get on with the job of making Squeaky George look ordinary (not a difficult task). Furthermore, the “no tax-cuts” line from Commie presents us with a HUGE opportunity
50 - Sorry, but what’s the constitutional point? From your description, just sounds like the ‘normal’ sort of minority govt world.
Rik spent much of yesterday arguing on this site that all Cameron’s changes were cosmetic rebranding and he has not changed the underlying product at all. Other Tories argue that there have been substantial changes for better or worse. As far as Orange Bookers are concerned some, such as abandoning serious attempts to reform the NHS (as I see it), are hardly likely to encourage defection - quite the reverse. As SBS notes, even if anyone was considering defecting at a high level, they would be very likely to see how that particular drama plays itself out (and of course who leads the Lib Dems and how they do so).
As it happens my hunch is that, if there is any truth at all in rumours of people shifting uncomfortably in their seats, it is socially conservative backbenchers rather than “purist” liberal Orange Bookers who may be the more likely suspects. Not sure an Orange Booker would switch if Cable were driving the domestic agenda in the party, as he would under Campbell.
51, So, Steve, let’s be clear. You wish to dump a whole swathe of the last LibDem election manifesto…
?
Interestingly, Hugh Dykes fought and won a libel action against the Telegraph for suggesting he’d defect to the Lib Dems, just before the 1997 general election. After the election, he defected to the Lib Dems.
I always thought in the case of Nicholson and Dykes, our gain was the Lib Dems’ loss.
53 - James, Simon sung Vince’s praises recently too.
If Rik W wanted to go back to his SDP roots, he wouldn’t join the LDs, he’d join the continuing SDP, which has four councillors in Bridlington (plus four more in Port Talbot Neath), managed to save its deposit in the 91 Neath by-election, and is registered with the Electoral Commission as a political party.
Today Bridlington and Port Talbot Neath, tomorrow the world.
54 - policy and principle, John. Our principles are around social justice and the best way to acheive it. Tory principles are around how to shrink the state (and taxes) as an end in itself.
To the constitutional point - isn’t that the worst possible world for the Tories? This way, the centre party gets to “wield disproprtionate power” in the way we hear so much about. With a formal coalition agreement the programme would be agreed in advance and the Tories would have the greater bargaining power. Sounds daft to me.
At least Hugh Dykes and Emma Nicholson have been MPs! Though the Tories are frankly welcome to take Teheran Emma back.
A quick thought experiment. Suppose that in a parallel universe, Adrian Graves hadn’t defected to the Tories this morning, but quite the reverse - he had said something pithy against Cameron which I approvingly quoted on here. If I backed this up by saying “well, you ought to listen to it from someone of his standing” I would have been roundly laughed at by every Conservative poster on here, who would (rightly) point out that he was an utter nonentity.
Finally it’s a shame Mr Graves doesn’t read pb.com, or he might not have said “it is David Cameron’s modernised, compassionate Conservativism* that has changed”. Some nice, reassuring and polite Tory posters here demonstrated yesterday that this is not at all the case: the exercise is purely one of rebranding and we will see a hard-right manifesto in 2009 and a harder-right Queen’s Speech.
* Surely Conservatism, no? Or is this more rebranding?
nearly every week Lib Dem news (the party newspaper) parades defectors from other parties, praising there courage and principles. It can hardly then complain when some one goes the other way. The hypocritical truth is that I feel betrayed by andrian graves but I have welcome plenty of others in from other parties. Its goes with the territory.
Normally I would agree that it just isn’t worth a Today appearence but after the shambles of CK’s removal we can’t really complain if the media sets up a “party in crisis” narritive when erm, the party has had a crisis. unfair? yes. Entirely predictable? Yes. again it goes with the territory.
As for the ICM thing. I’m very suspicious of the methodology but frankly thats not the point. It alters the sense of momentum which, in a race that is all over the place is crucial. Also I just wonder if it has hit on something. What ever you think of simon he has enormous personal warmth and i think that is going to come across at the hustings in perhaps a way that ming can’t manage. However as ever, mike is right. what we really need is a members poll.
Can someone tell me if Simon Heffer in the DT is a DC stooge/straw man to add gravity to the DC revolution by revulsion or has he been sleeping for the last 8 years ?
When Labour rebranded as New Labour, they really did change - a bit. However, they have subsequently demonstrated that they are unwilling to take on the unions with regard to public sector reform, and the current hot topic of pensions is a good example of it.
Have the Conservatives changed? Rik would have us believe it is just the emphasis (or language) rather than the policies have changed.
The fact that the Lib Dems are ditching high tax and spend policies is not an admission of failure. We have won the argument - and more money is going to public services as we had been asking all along (but we just wish it had been done more transparently than Gordon Brown did it). Now the funding is there, the debate has therefore moved onto reform. And yes, there may be common ground between Lib Dems and Tories here.
Any Conservative ditching of tax cuts, however, is an admission of failure. They have lost that argument.
you don’t need to sit on the government benches to have some sort of formal relationship with a minority government. They are called “confidence and supply” arrangements. You agree to support the government on motions of no confidence and passing the budget in return for a small ammount in return. However on every other day to day issue you vote as you see fit. It provides a very basic stability to a government while leaving you a free agent. The lib dems could argue that the people had spoken in removing labours majority and that no one wanted another election. They would then offer confidence and supply to cameroon for say two years and say they would make a wider judgement then. They get a bit of influence, look responsible, get to take populist credit for takin the edge off any to conservative measures and keep there options open.
The Lib Dems on this site are getting stroppier and stroppier with each piece of bad news.
Beth at 8. - surely the most pompous post yet seen on the site, which in case you have forgotten is called polictical BETTING Paul Lloyd at 14. - surely the most churlish post for quite a while, and a close contender for the most desperate as well; once you go down the path of blaming everything on ‘the media’ you have lost the plot.
63 - thanks for the clarification, that was kind of what I had in mind. And a proper reflection of the will of the electorate as a whole.
64 - fred, you’re not American are you?
64 - Only the most churlish post since all the others Paul has posted in last few days surely!
58 - I’m afraid Cameroon can also say ’social justice’. It really is very simple: smaller state -> more equality of opportunity. The question LibDems have to decide is whether they are collectivist or individualist. When/if they pick the latter, they may have something reasonable to contribute.
64 - Thanks for flagging 8… you don’t really understand the point of the site do you Beth?
58 - Steve, Hmmm, Hmmm and more Hmmm. The end result would still be the ditching of key specific policies on which your fought the election only a few months. That’s absolutely fine and appropriate. But perhaps just a little less of the Commie Ron jibes in the name of consistency, er?
Possibly in the short-term I concede, but that’s the point: ‘hung’ Parliaments in the UK have historically been short-term before a second election takes place, and majority government restored. If there is a minority Tory administration in 2009 then I believe that Mike’s analysis @46 is exactly right.
68 - It really is very simple: smaller state -> more equality of opportunity.
It certainly is not “very simple”! You might argue that a smaller state than we currently have would in this context increase equality of opportunity, but the idea of some iron law is just silly. Som-alia has an extremely small state: nonexistent in fact. How do you rate its equality of opportunity?
To give David Cameron credit, and I am not a fan of him, his view is at least rather more nuanced than yours.
This ICM poll reminds me of the lead we saw for Ken Clarke (may a bus be upon him), and that didn’t reflect the members’ vote at all.
I should point out that there is no hyphen in “Som-alia”, but the spam filter blocks it otherwise.
66. Are you suggesting I cannot spot irony? If not your query makes no sense to me.
70 - John, you’re in danger of turning into the inductivist turkey
To go back to your point. Let’s look at ditching policies and ditching principles. If your principle is how can we make sure that people get access to good quality public services, and you decide that a 50% rate of tax won’t achieve it, then you change the policy. The principle is still the same.
Contrast that with Mr Leigh’s “What is the point of the Conservative Party if not to cut taxes?”, combined with Mr Cameron’s “No tax-cutes” statement.
72 - Colin, you’re not a Ken fan?
[70] This is getting embarrassing, John
74 - correctamundo!
74 - and I agree with you about Beth’s post
This MUST be a wind up.. or a David Cameron set-up?!! interesting that these people think that policies such as a 50% tax rate would be best to “restore party fortunes” vs “would be best to consign the lib dems to the dustbin of history” Pictur this - *Cameron and Osbourne sitting aroung the dinner table passing the port.. “George how can we get the Lib Dems totally fcuked at the next election” “hmm David, lets call in some favours - get a poll going make out that Sandals Simon is what the Lib Dems really need to get back on track”… “but they’ll NEVER believe that” “they believed Oaten was a 4-1 shot” “you’re RIGHT - hit the phones!”
Slightly OT I know, but I’m just leafing through the Guardian’s Society jobs supplement, wondering where my tax money has been spent - given that I’ve just visited Whittington Hospital with my pregnant fiancee, and the escalators weren’t working, the paint was peeling, and half the building seemed to be falling down.
So where has my tax money gone? What has our lovely government done with the extra 5% of GNP (many tens of billions) they’re spending on the public sector? Ah yes. Here’s an advert for a “Sustainable Pensions Procurement Advisor”, with the UK Social Investment Forum. £33k a year. Nice. Wonder what they actually DO. And here’s an advert for a Home Ownership Services Coordinator. £27k per annum. Mmm, vital. Probably.
Or you could apply to be a Liveability Manager with Sheffield Council on… wait for it… £40k per year, plus pension and perks. Then again, how about becomingB Head of Evaluation at the Arts and Humanities Research Council - and you’ll make a tidy £45,000 per year. Never heard of the council, no idea what they do, but hey. Why nitpick when the pickings are so good?
Democratic Services Officer… Compact Development Officer… Quality Directorate Diversity Advisor… Community Safety Project Support Officer… Skills for Justice Framework Advisor…
Is it just me that feels slightly nauseous at the thought of all this waste? This futile, obscene, degrading waste of my money? And your money? This guaranteed way to ruin a once-vibrant economy?
Or is it just the fact that the escalators weren’t working in my hospital and I am ANGRY.
Apologies for OTness. Just had to get that off my chest. Nervous expectant father…
Big move for Hughes on betfair this morning. Ming drifting again. Reminisant of the betting when that poll that put Davis ahead of Cameron in the middle of the Tory leadership race was published. I wonder if this will prove to be more accurate.
I am getting rather fed up with the Lib Dem lie that Cameron has ruled out tax cuts - he hasnt. What he has said (and others as well) that tax cuts are not top priority but economic stability is! That is NOT to rule out tax cuts.
In fact it is a very sensible position not least because it is another “repositioning” statement but also because it is several years too early to be making judgements about the affordability of tax cuts etc! For example, if this government continues to starve the armed forces of resources whilst demanding more and more it may be necessary to increase defence spending to make good short falls, rather than cutting taxes.
If Tabman and others wish to continue to misrepresent what Cameron is saying they only serve to undermine their own case.
[68] and [71] Smaller state means greater equality of opportunity?
It actually means greater inequality of supply.
If the dead hand hand of the LEAs is removed from schools (the current white paper inches in that direction, but TB and DC want to go much further), then the shackles are being taken away. Most schools will get better, a few will stay the same (hardly anything really stays the same) and a few will get worse. So the average provision improves, but inequality is widened.
Is this a good thing? The labour rebels say no. For them, anything that increases inequality is a bad thing by definition. But the average provision is so poor that trying something else seems sensible.
SeanT, the purpose of those jobs is to provide work for the otherwise unemployable.
80 - not sure, sean, but your ranting is peeling the paint off my PC!
82 - calm down dear! Once upon a time Tories cut taxes and made the state fit the tax-take. I rather think that’s what Sean would like to see happen.
Surely if you need some more scrambled egg on your cap you can cut a Quality Directorate Diversity Advisor or two?
A wee comment. I’ve been in the lucky position of being near the centre of things up here when defectors have talked about - and actually then in some cases - come over to the Lib Dems in the past (albeit always councillors/ppcs) the funny thing is they always talk about other people doing the same as them and given hints that they know of more to come. The extra defectors then never turn up. Maybe it helps to salve conciences to suggest they are not just a misfit.
To keep Rick W from a crowing response I think Mr Graves has misread the Tories, but then I’m not from Suffolk and there may be special reasons, but clearly any defection is bad for the party which looses the member.
However a few things need to be bourne in mind
(i) Its a bit odd/good news management that the story was launched now on the day that the Lib Dem leadership election nominations close. This is the day the tv news will cover the whole Lib Dem line up and a defection is a good spoiler.
(ii) Mr Graves is keen to tell all that he made his mind up in December (http://www.conservatives.com/tile.do?def=news.story.page&obj_id=127423))
Could this be that Mr Graves is the best defection that http://www.libdems4cameron.com/ could generate after two months of a torrid time for the Lib Dems?
I wonder whether talk of MP defections is, currently, just talk and DC just fired his best shot he had in the locker today?
80. The Arts and Humanities Research Council administers government money given to university researchers in subjects such as English Literature or Classics. They fund Ph.Ds, and research leave for university staff among other things. To evaluate bids one would have to have occupied a fairly senior post in a University - and so £45K would seem reasonable. Around 50% of their money ends up at Oxbridge. Is this one of the quangos that the tories should be looking to axe?
86 Lothian - having caused the defection of more than 1.5% of the lib dem MPs is a pretty good shot!
78. Tabman even if I didn’t know you were a Lib Dem, your weird contradictory posts at 77-78 would be big hint.
83. David at 83. Your final ppgh is spot on. Socialists, and many Lib Dems, believe in decreasing inequality even if that means doing it by reducing opportunities for the able. Anthony Crossland argued against grammar schools from precisely this standpoint ‘working class people must rise with their class not out of their class’. In fact this viewpoint, odious to many, makes perfect sense from a partisan Labour perspective. Labour’s appeal is largely based on the idea that society is stacked against working class people, an idea that a more socially mobile society would be bound to erode. Genuine social mobility would mean very limited room for an envy-based socialist party, as is the case in the US.
88 - I’m not aware that any MP has defected.
87. If you want UK universities to stop doing research in humanities, abolishing the AHRC (which already gets a tiny fraction of the money available for sciences; they all have separate research councils) would be the way to do it.
87. Yes. FFS. Who cares about this pointless drivel? Somebody taking a year off to write about the feminism of the semicolon in Virginia Woolf’s later novels? Jeepers. Cut it all. Slash and burn.
I am just old enough to remember Maggie’s slaughter of the quangos when she came in to power. The squeals of pain from the public sector salariat, the polytechnic lecturers, the research diversity advisors - they claimed we would be returned to the intellectual Dark Ages, and wolves would lope down Oxford Street. She ignored them, and sacked half of them. Then the economy took off.
Cameron will have to do the same. But he’ll also have to speak softly, as he carries his big stick.
89 - I agree with you on that as well, fred. I would add that it also suits the Tories too, as a more educated and affluent society tends to become more liberal. Be careful with what you wish for!
And on your first point - Beth was having a go for someone talking about betting. This is a betting site, if she doesn;t like betting talk, go somewhere else.
Paul Lloyd, however, was using irony to challenge Rik.
Different things, old boy.
From my own historical memory the Liberals or Lib dems go through the cycle of party crisis that also hit the others, next in line should be Labour, if history is to repeat. Normally these crisis, in whatever party usually end in some cleansing process and each becomes the stronger for it. My guess is that for the Lib Dems they will emerge in about a year, (maybe some MPs light), but clearer in their overall policy and stronger for having gone through the period, after all life has been fairly kind and relatively easy for them since 1997. I would still put money on them making overall gains at the next election as will the Conservatives. Over 4 years they may even pick up defectors from Labour and the odd pro Europe Conservative.
Each days news this week makes me look at Durham South tomorrow with even more interest. Will their % vote hold, you wouldn’t normally put bets on it
I suspect the bulk of the party will rally round whoever is the leader and that person knows very well he cannot go off on a frolic of his own. They will have to stick together like glue for short term survival and then see if the lucky ball eventually bounces back their way, by elections, events etc. The world changes so quickly.
41, 48, Rik W, don’t celebrate before you get there.
80 - you want to get rid of Democratic Services officers? To do that you’d have to abolish elections. Seems rather self defeating for a punter on Pb.C
My favourite post in the Guardian was Bath and North East Somerset Council wishing to hire a “Batscape Officer ” (£21,000 pa, salary, which works out at a cost of £30,000 pa if you include all the on-costs). This was to do research into the Bat population of Bath and North East Somerset.
94 - sensible analysis, David. The trick is how long it takes to get through this. It took Labour 18 years; the Tories have been at it since 1992. Some might argue we’ve been doing it since around 1910
It may vary from council to council, but my experience is that Democratic Services Officers have very little to do with the electoral process.
80. I think the Uk Social Investment Forum is either largely or entirely funded through it’s affiliate programme to which most of the high street banks and many investment banks are signed up. It seeks to facilitate the flow of private investment capital either towards causes that investors believe in or to community owned businesses. I’m not sure exactly what he’s planning but DC has had positive things to say about the type of contribution this type of organisation can make.
96. I repeat what I said above. Yours (no offence, old boy) is the standard squeal of pain from the public sector when its interests are threatened. “If you do this the world will end!” the hyperbole and hysteria you exhibit (an end to democracy? give me a break) is just a giveaway - you protest too much - deep down you know that all these jobs are effing pointless.
So, yes. Sack ‘em all. I’m sure we’ll survive. I’m sure the sun will still come up and Britain will just about remain a democracy. And then we can spend the money on HOSPITAL ESCALATORS THAT WORK. Or we could give the money back to the people.
99 - Except for maintaining the electoral register and organising polling stations and the count. What do they do in your council Sean Fear?
re 8.about me “thinking more about punting than political values” The reason why PBC works as a place where people of all allegiances can discuss political outcomes is that we hang issues on the betting. This is the peg.
On a personal basis I get pleasure when I predict an outcome that actually happens irrespective of whether personally I am happy with that outcome. Thus I would like to see the back of the war criminal Tony Blair as soon as possible. I think, however, that he is going to survive a lot longer than people think and my money is on him staying for at least another two years.
In the Lib Dem leadership I would like Huhne to do it but I make a nice profit whoever wins and I take pleasure in getting this right.
hyperbole and hysteria? - SeanT - If you don’t pay someone to maintain the electoral register, and organise polling stations and the count, how do you expect elections to be run?
Just a general point on defections, I think one of the interesting things about them is that they point up the difference between politicians and those interested in politics.
Politicians seemingly cannot conceive of not being in a party or active in a party, so they switch from one to another very rapidly with no serious intervening period of reflection. Supposing a Lib Dem leader were to come in who took the party in a direction I didn’t like for a sustained period and failed to recognise the talent we have in our ranks (as Tabman has noted I don’t think Simon Hughes probably is such a leader although some speculate he may be). I tend to think that I and most normal politically interested people would take a step back, scale back involvement and let my membership lapse. Perhaps I would join another party in a couple of years, although there’s a big maybe. But the pscychology of the “on/off” switch is a bit alien to me. I suspect that there are a few contributors on this site (both Tory and Lib Dem) who take a similar approach, and few who have the on/off mentality rather than the more nuanced approach (perhaps regular contributors could guess some of the names I am thinking of but I don’t want to put words into people’s mouths!).
Actually, I can see the logic of defecting more for sitting MPs (who arguably have to be on one side or another for professional reasons) than I do for ex-PPCs or party chairs or whoever.
In Hertsmere, that function is performed by one Electoral Services Officer, Pip.
Apropos Society Guardian’s magnificent compendium of non-jobs, did I actually hear Virgin Radio carrying adverts for this morning? I think I did but I was still semi-comatosea the time and cannot be certain. It did little to lift the spirits, imaginary or otherwise.
Up to three Conservative MPs could join defect to the Lib Dems, and greater numbers of ordinary members.
There is a discussion around Westminster at the moment that there may be up to three MPs considering their position, and I would understand that, after David Cameron turned his back to private health care and expressed his willingness to regulate the commerce of Chocolate Oranges.
You heard it here first, and you can now tell everybody you heard it from a reliable source!
Somewhere like Brent (where many voters can’t speak English, and where personation is not unknown) would need more than one person handling electoral services, but it shouldn’t be a very big unit.
108 - Andrea, behave yourself
Anyone watching PMQs?
108 - I am hearing the same
But not sure we would want all three 
LOL
106 - (Different name, same job). For all we know, the job SeanT saw advertised was the only one in the council advertising. I’m not quite sure why he’s so agitated (hysteria indeed) about a throughaway comment about the disbenefits of getting rid of that job to Pb.C users!
111 - yes!
86 Adrian Graves was not an MP - precisely 0% of MPs have defected!
Adrian Graves just wants a winnable seat to stand in!
108 Wishful thinking, alas
Btw, SeanT ought to think himself lucky that they have escalators working some of the time. I remember the opening of Binns (House of Fraser) in Middlesbrough back in the ’60s, where they announced they weren’t fitting escalators because Northern people wouldn’t understand how to use them.
115 - And came to the conclusion that there wont be too many of those for the Libs next time round?
111. If Blair thinks there isn’t a problem with lazy police officers, then he’s showing he’s out of touch again.
104. I’ve just noticed (I can’t quite believe this) that there are TWO Guardian Society jobs supplements. There are so many pointless idiotic jobs to fill, they’ve had to print two supplements.
Here’s a good ‘un. The Race and Hate Crime Coordinator. What does he do? Track skinheads? £35k.
Or you could apply to be the Airwave in Life Service Manager, in Paisley. An important part of his job is Fleetmapping.
You get a car if you successfully apply for the Leaving Care Manager role, where you are “required to manage and coordinate a small team working with care leavers”. Sweet.
Or just become an Executive Director at Blackburn and Darwen Council and make….. wait for it… £107,000 per annum.
Yes, £107,000 per annum. Not bad, really.
God help us.
112 - Rik, I think you misread 108, which speculated on three defections from the Tories to the LDs.
SeanT, if you’ll forgive a self-plug, last month I wrote a report on the cost of these jobs to the taxpayer. It’s not a pretty sight.
120 - Sean, are you suggesting nothing should be done to support kids who leave local authority care when they turn 18? No one could ever conceivably be employed to do that?
120 - The Race and Hate Crime Co-ordinator is a pretty bizarre title. Exactly how do you coordinate a race and hate crime?
102. 104. 106. etc. Actually there is a difference between and Electoral Services Officer and a Democratic Services Officer. Electoral Services do organise elections (along with the returning officer) but Democratic Services are responsible for servicing the Committee structure and the needs of Councillors.
It’s certainly true that there are a lot of jobs in local authorities that could be done without; some Conservatives have a tendency however, to write them all off, “sack them all”, and we do ourselves a disservice by doing so.
Sean T, I’ve never understood what makes some crimes “hate crimes” and other crimes, what exactly - “love crimes”?
The actual cost of employing the Chief Executive will be much higher. He’ll have an additional 25% or so paid into the local government pension fund, there’ll be his car allowance (c.£8,000 pa), national insurance, and he’ll probably get a few thou for being the borough returning officer. There’ll probably be some bonus arrangement as well.
122. Thanks, interesting! I feel a small article coming on. I know this theme has been written on before, but in the year when the UK’s pubolic sector overtakes Germany’s in proportionate size, it might be time to revisit the issue. Put it another way: sod the bloody Guardian.
123. You don’t get it, do you? At some point we have to say: enough. You can make up pointless public sector jobs until the cows come home and they all might seem vital, given a bit of special pleading. How about a ‘helping old people across the road task manager’? Or someone to coordinate library books in braille for blind Scottish substance abusers?
“Are you really suggesting that old people should be left to the mercy of traffic?” “Are you really suggesting that poor blind smack addicts in Leith shouldn’t get books?” Etc etc.
There comes a point when a country needs to create wealth rather than spend it. With growth slumping, unemployment up, productivity down, exports sagging, etc etc - we’ve reached that point. Enough diversity outreach coordinating advisors. Give us escalators that work. And our money back.
I do sympathise with Sean T - I wouldn’t like my kids to have been born at the Whittington either - move heaven and earth to get to U.C.H. (on your doorstep IIRC too) - my daughter was born by emergency Caesarean there and they saved her life (and her mother’s too). Although last time I looked it was a building site…
As to the issue of waste in the public sector, it will always be possible to score cheap shots. Some of it is inevitable, even desirable (you don’t go to war to justify having built the battleships, surely - well, actually people do :() - some of it is a frictional cost of democracy (any local government re-organisation, unsuccessful bids for the Olympic Games etc) but most of it is explained by that wonderful management theorist, Pope John XXIII who, when asked how many people worked in the Vatican, replied “about half of them”
122. Fairly appalling stuff. Wonder how much of the Guardians profits are made up of government funding to advertise these non jobs.
127. I think escalators should be reserved for those who can afford to go private.
121 - I assumed it must be a typo as no-one could be THAT stupid! lol
112 - Update: Well-known Conservative campaigner Richard Willis, who stood as a candidate for Sutton and Cheam in 2005 general election, has confirmed the rumours that three Conservative MP are up to defect to the Lib Dems. Mr Willis expressed, though, that the Conservatives wouldn’t want all three to leave.
80 - As someone who is doing a PhD funded by a similar body (ESRC) I’m going to defend them. Academic research is important for our nation, for business and for the economy. The vast majority of funding goes outside of Oxbridge - in fact universities like the LSE (where I’m at) probably get more ESRC funding. Of course some academic funding will always go to some esoteric study (though considering the ‘Asian Women’s Hopscotch Foundation’ gaffe Michael Howard made in the 1990s the Tories should probably be quiet) but the majority will be well used.
Also although some of the post names might seem silly I would rather my local hospital spent £20,000 on a risk assement officer than have it pay out compensation when a patient slipped on a wet floor or have to pay out sick pay when a hospital porter strained his or her back because they weren’t properly trained. If you look at what these people do you might find that they serve an important purpose that actually saves taxpayers money in the long term and improves services (though many of them do have over formal job titles).
129 - We did try to estimate this, and didn’t have the information about the Guardian’s revenue to come up with a conclusive figure. I did however, phone up and ask what the approximate cost would be for a single quarter page colour advertisement, and they said £5,500! So we’re talking about 56 pages of advertisements a week, with each page costing the taxpayer around £22 grand.
132. Come on Andrea. You’ve been found out. Just for a laugh, name the three you suspect would be the most likely to defect.
I see Sean Fears MP asked a pertinent question at PMQs.
The problem is Matthew, you’ll probably find that a growing proportion of the NHS budget is going on meeting those sorts of claims *notwithstanding* the existence of such officers.
And in addition to the two weekly Society sections, there’s a third Society section every few weeks, called ‘Society Scotland’.
Yes, but a risk assessment officer is a pretty valid job, unlike a Walking Coordinator (in Hammersmith and Fulham - doubtless they’re elsewhere too…).
I don’t understand why waste reduction in the public sector gets such a bad press. It’s not just about the money saved with each individual job, it’s about challenging attitudes within the public sector.
A letter from yesterday’s Eastern Daily Press from a North Norfolk Conservative actitist…
“By any standards, Norman Lamb is an excellent constituency MP and, as trade and industry spokesman, a valued member of the Liberal Democrat front bench who has the respect of the House of Commons. There is now no chance of the Liberal Democrats ever forming a government or even becoming part of a coalition. The Conservatives under David Cameron, will almost certainly make a complete recovery over the next two general elections as the frailty and incompetence of New Labour brings about their downfall. I believe Mr Lamb agrees wioth most of the aims of the new Conservative Party - particualrly in the areas of social responsibility, the enviornment, Europe, the ecomoy. And when the Conservatives win the next election they wiull be woefully short of skilled, experienced and talented parliamentarians like himself to form an effective administration. Mr Lamb should cross over to the Conservative Party now - especially as I cannot imagine he would ever be in sympathy with the probable leader of his Party, Simon hughes, who will lurch immediately to the far Left, taking the bulk of the party with him, and leaving Mr Lamb behind. Don’t waste your talents Norman -come and join us. You’ll be very welcome.”
More on this and Adrian Graves on my blog at http://www.iaindale.blogspot.com
[133] Good point, Matthew - managers in the public sector (and not only there)